Saturday, November 30, 2013

Green Bay Packers-Detroit Lions In-Game Analysis

Green Bay Packers (5-5-1) at Detroit Lions (6-5) at 12:30 on FOX

Thanksgiving Day Context:

For the 69th consecutive year, dating all the way back to 1945, the Detroit Lions will be hosting a Thanksgiving day game. The tradition actually began in 1934 as an attempt to create more fan interest in Detroit, as the team was starting its first year in the motor city after moving from Portsmouth (fun fact: in 1932 the Portsmouth Spartans lost in the inaugural NFL Championship Game to the Chicago Bears). When the Lions were scheduled to play the Chicago Bears, a team that had won the NFL Championship in 1932 and 1933, they decided to put the game on Thanksgiving to create added excitement around the big match-up. Nearly 80 years later, the Lions are still hosting Thanksgiving day games in one of football's historic relics despite the fact that they have only made one playoff appearance since 1999 and haven't won a championship since 1957 when they beat the Browns in the title game 59-14 (yes, the Browns and Lions made the championship in the same year). Detroit has a 33-37-2 record on Thanksgiving day (including a 10-year stretch from 1959 to 1969 where they went 2-8-1), but a 11-8-1 record against their 2013 opponent, the Green Bay Packers. In fact, the Lions last Thanksgiving Day win came all the way back in 2003 against the Packers. Detroit and Green Bay actually played each other every year on turkey day from 1951 to 1963, and the NFC North divisional foes will be renewing their Thanksgiving Day rivalry this season.

Game Preview:

In a wide open division with only the Leslie Frazier led Minnesota Vikings out of the playoff race, the Packers-Lions Thanksgiving Day game has major postseason implications. The Packers would likely have been fighting for NFC home field advantage rather than the NFC North if it weren't for Aaron Rodgers breaking his collarbone. The Packers have gone 0-3-1 in their last four games without Rodgers and have slipped from 5-2 to 5-5-1. Seneca Wallace and Scott Tolzien threw 6 interceptions for the Pack in losses to the Bears, Eagles, and Giants and a tie to the lowly Vikings. This week the Packers will be starting Matt Flynn, who entered the game for Green Bay in the third quarter of their tie with Minnesota and was actually fairly effective in leading the Packers back from a 23-7 deficit to get the game to overtime. Although Flynn only joined the Packers on November 12, he did spend 4 years with Green Bay and Mike McCarthy from 2008 and 2011 so he is very familiar with the team's offense. However, the Packers are going to rely heavily on Eddie Lacy once again this weekend, who has had at least 22 carries in 3 of their last 4 games and has produced 2 games of at least 110 yards and 3 touchdowns since Rodgers went out. Meanwhile, the Lions should be able to exploit a Green Bay defense that is ranked 19th in the league in rushing defense and 20th in the league in passing defense. In fact, the Packers have allowed more than 200 yards on the ground in two of their last three games against the Eagles and LeSean McCoy and the Vikings and Adrian Peterson. If Green Bay has to bring safeties into the box in order to stop Detroit's rushing attack of Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, Matt Stafford could have a big day with Calvin Johnson not getting double covered over the top. Finally, the battle in the trenches to watch in this game is the Lions offensive line against the Packers pass rush, as Detroit has allowed a league low 14 sacks all season while the Packers are tied for the league lead with 37 sacks.

First Half Score: Detroit Lions 17 - Green Bay Packers 10

The first half was a period of missed opportunities and self-inflicted wounds for the Detroit Lions. Despite out-gaining the Packers 340 to 43 in total yards, 192 to 24 in passing yards, and 148 to 19 in rushing yards, the Lions only have a touchdown lead at the intermission. Detroit racked up huge chucks of yards in the first half and drove up and down the field in both the first and second quarter. Their offensive line dominated Green Bay's front seven, as Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, who had a combined for 116 first half rushing yards, were not even getting touched until the second line of defense. The Packers were also cut open by a multitude of Detroit slant passes, as Sam Shields was unable to cover Calvin Johnson off the line of scrimmage. The Lions also shut down the Packers defensively in the first half. Knowing that the Packers were going to predominately run the ball on first down, the Lions brought extra guys into the box to shut down Eddie Lacy, who had just 13 yards on 7 carries in the first half. When the Packers did attempt to throw the ball, Matt Flynn was getting pressured by Detroit's defensive front, which had three sacks including two from rookie Ziggy Ansah. With all that being said, the Packers should be thrilled with the halftime score considering the Lions first half domination. In very Detroit-like fashion, the team had an array of miscues to keep the Packers in the game. On the Lions first drive in the red zone, Reggie Bush fumbled on the Green Bay 12 yard line. It was his 3rd lost fumble in the team's last 5 games, which is tied for the most amongst running backs in the NFL. After the Lions kicked a field goal to go up 3-0, Sam Martin, the Lions punter, hit the ensuing kick-off out of bounds, which allowed the Packers to kick a field goal after gaining just 24 yards. Green Bay then added a touchdown after Nick Perry went by left tackle Riley Reiff and forced a Matt Stafford fumble. Stafford also threw an interception for the team's third first half turnover, and David Akers missed a 31 yard field goal at the end of the half. Therefore, due to three turnovers, a missed field goal, a poor kick off, and just 17 points from 5 trips to the red zone, the Lions have just a 7 point halftime lead despite being thoroughly dominate in the first 30 minutes of play.

Final Score: Detroit Lions 40 - Green Bay Packers 10

Often times, when a team thoroughly controls a half of football and does not capitalize by taking a large lead, the opponent feels a second life and comes out rejuvenated after the break knowing that they have been severely outplayed yet are only down by one score. However, this game was more so a case of the Packers continuing their offense ineptitude and the Lions finally putting together some complete drives. The Packers were a complete mess all day on the offense side of the ball. The Lions recorded 7 sacks on Matt Flynn (their most in a game since a week 8 loss to the Denver Broncos in 2011 and their most against the Packers since 1987) despite the fact that the team was averaging under 2 sacks per game coming into the thanksgiving day contest. In fact, the Lions had just 4 sacks in a 4 game stretch from week 5 to week 8 against the Packers, Browns, Bengals, and Cowboys. Nonetheless, in this game, Ndamukong Suh was constantly pushing the Packers interior linemen back into the quarterback, including when he dropped Matt Flynn for a safety in the third quarter to give the Lions a 26-10 lead. The Lions pass rush also forced two Matt Flynn fumbles and caused the quarterback to look very uncomfortable in the pocket. Detroit's defensive front also eliminated the Packers run game, which was ranked 5th in the league coming into the thanksgiving day clash. Green Bay did not have a rushing first down for the first time since a week 14 loss to the Seattle Seahawks in 1990 and their 24 total rushing yards were the fewest for the team since a week 11 loss to the Minnesota Vikings in 2005. The Lions also continued to move the ball up and down the field on offense. Coming into the game, the Lions were ranked 22nd in the NFL in rushing, as they were averaging just over 100 yards per game. However, Detroit's offensive line dominated the Packers defensive front as they continually double teamed B.J. Raji and were able to get a huge push for Reggie Bush and Joique Bell to run through. The Lions were able to rack up 241 yards on the ground against the Pack, their most in a game since a week 13 victory over the Indianapolis Colts in 1997 (Barry Sanders had 216 yards and 2 touchdowns that game in his MVP season). Reggie Bush had 117 yards and Joique Bell was 6 yards away from the Lions having two 100 yard running backs in the same game for the first time since a week one win against the Los Angeles Rams all the way back in 1980 (in that game Dexter Bussey had 111 yards and a touchdown and rookie and #1 overall pick in the 1980 NFL draft Billy Sims from Oklahoma had 153 yards and 3 touchdowns). With the Lions running rampant around the field, Calvin Johnson was often left isolated, which proved to be too much for Sam Shields to handle. While Megatron did not exploit the Packers defense deep down the field, as his longest reception of the game was 20 yards, he was able to continually run slant routes across the middle of the field for 101 yards and a touchdown. It was the 7th time this season Calvin had at least 100 yards in a game and was his 12th touchdown grab of the year. Megatron is now on pace for 1,732 yards and 16 touchdowns, which would be the 5th most receving yards in a single season only behind Clavin's season last year (1,964 yards), Jerry Rice in 1995 (1.848 yards), Isaac Bruce in 1995 (1,781 yards), and Charley Hennigan in 1961 (1,746 yards). Calvin is also well on his way to becoming the first wide out to finish at the top of the league in receiving yards for three consecutive years since Jerry Rice did so with the San Francisco 49ers from 1993 to 1995. The win for the Lions puts them a half game ahead of the Chicgao Bears in the NFC North and in position to win the division for the first time since 1993. Meanwhile, while the Packers are getting Aaron Rodgers back in week 14, with a 5-6-1 record, they will likely have to win out against the Falcons, Cowboys, Steelers, and Bears in order to even have a chance at the postseason.

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