Thursday, December 5, 2013

A Massive World Cup Draw Analysis

There are few sporting events that seem so familiar to fans, yet at the same time feel so removed and distant. While this paradox is quite perplexing, it is the exact characterization that people around the world feel about the world's biggest international soccer tournament, the World Cup.

Ask any soccer fan and they can distinctly remember Zinedine Zidane's chipped penalty kick goal against Italy and then his subsequent red card in the infamous head-butt of defender Marco Materazzi to help the Italians win the 2006 World Cup, a tournament where the Azzurri allowed just 2 goals in 7 games (in comparison, when Italy won the World Cup in 1982 in Spain, they allowed a total of 6 goals). What soccer follower can't recall Siphiwe Tshabalala's goal for South Africa against Mexico to open up the World Cup in front of "Bafana, Bafana" in the first ever World Cup on African soil (South Africa did, however, fail to make the knockout stage, the first ever host country to do so). There isn't an American who can't give you the play-by-play of Landon Donovan's incredible 90th minute goal against Algeria to send the red, white, and blue past the group stage for just the third time since 1950 (the US also won their group for the first time since the 1930 World Cup in Uruguay with that goal). Any ardent soccer fan can recollect almost every moment of the classic 2010 final between Spain and the Netherlands, including Andreas Iniesta's goal in the 116th minute to cement Spain's world soccer dominance and their first every World Cup triumph (Spain won every game in the knockout stage 1-0, becoming the first team to not allow a goal past the group stage since the current format was initiated in 1986).

While these enduring moments will never be forgotten and seem so familiar to fans, the four year wait between World Cups has made it seem like an eternity since the players last took the field for the 2010 final in Johannesburg. It is this four year spell that makes the World Cup so much more tense and pressure filled than any other tournament because great players and nations may only get a few chances at a World Cup Trophy. For example, Turkey, who made the World Cup semifinals in 2002 before losing to eventual champion Brazil, have only ever made two World Cup appearances in their nation's history (1954 in Switzerland and that said year in 2002 in South Korea/Japan). Wales, who were in the World Cup quarterfinals in 1958 in Sweden, have not been back to the world's biggest international soccer tournament since their run nearly 60 years ago. Some of the world's greatest players like George Best of Northern Ireland, Ryan Giggs of Wales, George Weah of Liberia, and Alfredo Di Stefano of Argentina, Colombia, and Spain never even played in a single World Cup. The long interval and tension of the event makes fans salivating for the next World Cup to begin because the last one feels so far removed even if the memories will always remain.

With the World Cup draw finally unveiled and the tournament on the precipice of beginning, here is an analysis of each of the group in this year's tournaments.

(Note: Pot 1 of the draw were the seeded teams: Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Uruguay, Spain, Germany, Belgium, Switzerland. Pot 2 were the non-seeded African and South American teams: Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Cameroon, Algeria, Chile, and Ecuador. Chile and Ecuador were drawn with one of the four European seeded teams so that two South American clubs were not in the same group to ensure geographic separation. Pot 3 were the non-seeded Asian and North American teams: Japan, Australia, South Korea, Iran, United States, Mexico, Costa Rica, Honduras. Pot 4 were the non-seeded European teams: Portugal, Italy, France, England, Netherlands, Croatia, Russia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Greece. However, Italy was moved to pot 2 to make each of the pots have an equal number of teams. Also, when Italy was put into pot 2, they were drawn with one of the four South American seeded teams to ensure that three European teams would not end up in the same group).

Group A: Brazil, Croatia, Mexico, Cameroon (5th Hardest Group According to the Cory Tell All Sports Index)

There have been six nations to win the World Cup as hosts: Uruguay in 1930, Italy in 1934, England in 1966, West Germany in 1974, Argentina in 1978, and France in 1998 (Brazil finished second in 1950, as did Sweden in 1958). Brazil's first step towards becoming the 7th nation to win on home soil became a little easier when their very manageable World Cup grouping was drawn in Bahia, as they should have no trouble with Croatia, Mexico, or Cameroon.

However, the Selecao are in a very unique position as the World Cup approaches, as Brazil has been a nation savaged by political strife, security issues, government corruption, and relentless public demonstrations over the past 12 months. In fact, millions of Brazilians took to the streets during the more than 2-week long Confederations Cup to protest the substantial government spending on the World Cup rather than the country investing the money in public transportation, hospitals, and schools. Brazilian police used tear gas, shock grenades, and missiles to somewhat subdue the violent demonstrators, who demanded an improvement in public services and an end to high prices and government inflation. The protests have created a very interesting paradox in Brazil. While many Brazilians are deeply unsatisfied that their country is leveraging millions of dollars on World Cup stadiums and preparations, football is life and religion in Brazil, and the fans remain coldheartedly behind the team on the actual field, just not the politics beyond the club. A variety of the Brazilian players even supported the protesters in their efforts to enact reform in the nation. Hulk said, "After seeing the people on the streets claiming for improvements, it makes me feel like joining them. They are doing the right thing... Brazil needs to improve." Neymar shared that sentiment when he stated, "I want a Brazil which is more just safer, healthier and more honest... It might seem demagogic on my part, but it isn't, to carry the flag of the protests which are happening in the whole of Brazil."

Anything less then walking away with their 6th World Cup would be an immense failure for a Brazilian team that is not only carrying the pressure of being the tournament favorite, but has the weight of an entire struggling nation on its shoulders. Nonetheless, Brazil definitely has more than enough quality to win on home territory in convincing fashion. While Brazilian football has become synonymous with skillfulness, imagination, and ingenuity over the years (think Garrincha, Ronaldinho), the back line is the real point of stability for the Selecao. With two of the best center backs in the world with Thiago Silva and David Luiz (when he stays disciplined) and two of the best attacking full backs in the world with Dani Alves and Marcelo, the Brazilian defense has looked very solid. A big reason that the Selecao allowed just 3 goals in their 3rd consecutive Confederations Cup victory was that whenever Alves and Marcelo provided width from the back, Luiz Gustavo would sit for the outside backs and provide any support for a possible counter-attack. While Luiz Scolari has certainly returned a sense of the creativity and free-flowing style that is analogous with Brazilian football, the strength of this team lies in their defensive aptitude, which was shown in their ability to high press Spain all around the field and stop their very effective passing style. Expect Brazil's pace to be too much for any of the other teams in this group.

Meanwhile, while Cameroon has been one of the most consistent African footballing nations (the team made four straight World Cups from 1990 to 2002 and its quarterfinal appearances in the 1990 World Cup in Italy has only been matched by Senegal in 2002 and Ghana in 2010), it does not have once of its better squads as compared to tournaments in the past. Although the indomitable lions do have some European talent in Queens Park Rangers defender Benoit Asou-Ekotto, Barcelona midfielder Alex Song, and Chelsea striker Samuel Eto'o and should have some bright moments, expect to see an early exit for the Cameroonians.

If all things go as planned, it should be a dogfight between Croatia and Mexico for second place in this somewhat mild group.

The Mexicans certainly have the talent to be a sleeper in this year's competition, but they have been a dysfunctional and poorly managed team for the better part of a year. The national side have had four managers since September (Jose Manuel de la Torre, Luis Fernando Tena, Victor Manuel Vucetich, and Miguel Herrera) and have been under more scrutiny and criticism than arguably any other qualifier for the World Cup. While current manager Miguel Herrera only fielded Mexican club based players in the team's playoff against New Zealand, expect to see the likes of Javier Aquino, Andres Guardado, Giovani dos Santos, and Javier Hernandez back in the squad for Brazil.

While the Mexicans have the flair to make a run in this year's tournament, the Croatias have been a much more consistent side. The blazers, who are led by Darijo Srna and Luka Modric, could be at a severe disadvantage, however, because Mario Mandzkic faces disciplinary action for his red card in the 2nd leg of the team's playoff win over Iceland and Josip Simunic may be suspended for starting a fascist chant following the victory. The possible penalties against one of the team's best defenders and the Bayern Munich striker will be too much to overcome for the Croatians, as the Mexicans should move on with the hosts.

Group B: Spain, Netherlands, Chile, Australia (2nd Hardest Group in the CTASI)

Group B is one of the three quartets in this year's World Cup that can assert itself as the "group of death" with three teams in the top 15 of the FIFA World Rankings, including the defending World Cup Champions Spain, the 2010 World Cup runner-up Netherlands, and the ever-improving Chilean national team.

The first game of group B will feature a rematch of the World Cup title clash four years ago between Spain and Holland, which is the first time ever that the World Cup finals will be the first match of a group in the subsequent tournament. In fact, there have only been three World Cup rematches between the two finalists in any round of the following tournament, all of which interestingly involve West Germany. In 1966, England beat West Germany 4-2 in the title match of the World Cup on English soil behind the only hat-trick in World Cup finals history from Geoff Hurst, including two of which came in stoppage time. However, in the 1970 competition in Mexico, West Germany got their revenge in the quarterfinals, as Westdeutschland came back from a 2-0 deficit to beat England in stoppage time after a goal in the 108th minute by German legend Gerd Muller. In the 1974 World Cup, West Germany won their second title at the expense of Netherlands and legend Johan Cruijff, as Gerd Muller proved to be the hero once again with a 43rd minute game-winning goal for the West Germans in the final. In the following World Cup in Argentina, in the second round, the two teams played again but this time to a 2-2 tie (Netherlands went on to lose in the finals once again, this time 3-1 to Argentina in extra time). In the 1986 World Cup final in Mexico, Argentina and Diego Maradona got out to an early lead against West Germany and held on for a 3-2 victory and their 2nd World Cup triumph. However, in the next edition of the World Cup in 1990 in Italy, the West Germans got their retribution, as they took down the Argentinians in a finals rematch behind an 85th minute penalty from Andreas Brehme.

This year, Spain and Netherlands should provide a spectacle in Salvador that is reminiscent of their World Cup final battle, except hopefully without 46 fouls and 13 yellow cards. That match probably still gives Howard Webb nightmares when he isn't thinking about Manchester United of course. Jokes aside, the jury is still out on Spain and Netherlands despite their title runs in the last World Cup.

Although La Roja became the first ever national team to win three straight either continental or world competitions (they beat Germany in the Euro 2008 final, Netherlands in the 2010 World Cup final, and won the European Championship again in 2012 with a victory over Italy), some questions have been risen about the national side in the past year, especially after the Confederations Cup. In World Cup qualifying, the Spanish dropped points at home to Finland from the El Molinon in Gijon, and as has been the case even with their unprecedented success over the past half decade, they have struggled to find a striking option to play at the top of their formation. Spain experimented with Roberto Soldado, David Villa, Michu, and Alvaro Negredo up top but got just 4 goals from the forwards in qualifying, and often resorted to a false nine with Pedro in the striker role to compensate for their lack of quality. Fernando Torres's dip in form at Chelsea has prevented him from even making some of the Spanish team's rosters, and has dropped him way down the totem pole in the national side's striker battle. If things continue to go poorly for the Spanish in pre-tournament friendlies in the striker position, expect Vincent del Bosque to turn to either Fernando Llorente or newly nationalized Spaniard Diego Costa to take up the reigns as the team's lone striker. However, before we get so dark and gloomy about a team that didn't lose a game for nearly three years from the 2010 World Cup to the 2013 Confederations Cup (breaking France's record) it should be remembered that the Spanish still have a majority of their wildly underrated defense. In fact, this back line of Jordi Alba, Gerard Pique, Sergio Ramos, Alvaro Arbeloa (may turn into Juanfran by Brazil), went over 415 minutes without conceding a goal in the Euros in route to the title. As long as the Spanish can find some offensive spark, they should be moving on through to the round of 16 at the top of group B.

Meanwhile, after their Euro 2012 disaster where they lost all three games in the group stage and looked like they had less chemistry then Johnny Depp and Angelina Jolie in The Tourist, the Netherlands have a major point to prove come this year's tournament. To think that the Dutch can bolster an attack of Rafael van der Vaart, Jeremain Lens, Arjen Robben, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, and Robin van Persie is very frightening, but it is just a matter of bringing all of these talents together in a cohesive way. In qualifying, Holland ran rampant with goals with 34 in 10 matches, most notably from van Persie and van der Vaart. Playing predominantly with the 4-3-3 system under head man Louis van Gaal, the Dutch were able to play a very good brand of attacking soccer in qualification. With world class midfielders like Kevin Strootman and Wesley Sneijder providing service to the attacking three, with Nigel de Jong sitting in behind them for protection, the Dutch have the talent to be a World Cup title contender if all of their flamboyant pieces can fit together.

However, Chile has looked really good in the past year and could easily knock Netherlands out of the World Cup in the group stage for the first time since the 1938 cup in France. The Chileans have one of the most dangerous trios in international football with the versatile Arturo Vidal and the speedy Alexis Sanchez and Eduardo Vargas. Chile looked very solid in qualification, finishing 3rd in the South American qualifying and rounding out their campaign with 5 wins and a tie. In fact, the Chileans have lost just two games in 2013 with victories over World Cup sides Uruguay, Ecuador, and England and ties against World Cup favorites Spain and Brazil in friendlies. Chile is a very pacey team that can easily catch any opponent on the counter-attack, which could smell trouble for a Dutch side that enjoys the ball but is susceptible to being caught out on the break.

Finally, as strong as the top three teams are in this stout group, Australia is really not a good side, as shown by their 6-0 losses to Brazil and France in the last four months and their 3-2 defeat to Romania in February. Despite being in their third straight World Cup and having some quality up front with Tim Cahill and Robbie Kruse, it will be important for Spain, Netherlands, and Chile to rack up a bunch of goals against the Aussies in case second place comes down to goal differential.

Group C: Colombia, Greece, Ivory Coast, Japan (4th Hardest Group in the CTASI)

When the World Cup draw was selected in the costa do sauipe, group C seemed to lack the appeal that most of the other quartets in this year's competition possessed.

It did not have one of the world's usual soccer powerhouses, as Colombia, the group's seeded team from pot 1, will be making just its 5th World Cup appearance (only more than Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Venezuela in South America) and its first in 16 years since the 1998 World Cup in France. In fact, their round of 16 display in the 1990 tournament in Italy was their only run outside of the group stage in the nation's footballing history. Coming into this year's competition, Colombia is in the top 10 of the FIFA World Rankings for the first time since 2002, the year after it won its only Copa America. Typically, fans are also intrigued by teams that do not have a rich soccer history proving themselves more than capable of playing on the world's biggest stage, especially from continents not known for their footballing prowess. However, both Japan and Cote d'Ivoire have become World Cup regulars over the past two decades, perpetually representing Asia and Africa as their top team. Japan has made five consecutive World Cups, which has only been matched by three other teams that have never won the competition (the United States, Mexico, and South Korea). Meanwhile, Ivory Coast is one of just two African nations (Ghana) to be appearing in their 3rd straight World Cup. Finally, casual soccer fans enjoy watching games with good attacking football and a lot of goals. However, Greece is known for its tactical precision and its defense sturdiness. When the Greeks shocked the world and won the European Champions in 2004 in just their second appearance in the competition since 1960, they scored just 7 goals in 6 match and won every game in the knockout stage 1-0. In fact, Greece did not have more ball possession in any of their matches in the tournament. Just based on recent history and some of the fascinating storylines that some of the other groups present, group C does not have that "wow" factor. Nonetheless, of all the quartets in this year's competition, this group could be the most balanced from top to bottom, as any of the team's can truly move on the knockout stage. Thus, while the Argentina-Iran game is probably not in doubt, every match in this group will be closely contested and could go either way.

To begin, Colombia is likely in its golden generation of football, or at least its best spell since the 1990's. "Los Cafeteros" cruised through CONMEBOL qualifying, only finishing behind Argentina by two points, and got their FIFA ranking all the way up to 3 in the world by mid-summer (Colombia was all the way down at 35 in January of 2012). With Radamael Falcao up front, the Colombians have a true superstar in their squad, which only a handful of teams in the World Cup can boast. Falcao's AS Monaco teammate, James Rodriguez, could also come into the international spotlight during this year's World Cup, as the 22-year old is already one of the quickest and craftiest players in the world. The questions with the Colombian national team lies with their back line, which lacks the mobility with 34-year old Luis Perea and 37-year old Mario Yepes in the center back roles.

Meanwhile, despite the fact that Ivory Coast has a panoply of top tier talent with the likes of Kolo Toure, Yaya Toure, and Salomon Kalou, Gervinho, and most notably African footballing legend Didier Drogba, the team has been a massive disappointment in major competitions for years. In the African Cup of Nations, Cote d'Ivoire lost in penalties to Egypt in 2006 and Zambia in 2012 in two finals and bowed out very disappointingly to Algeria in the 2010 quarterfinals and in the same round in 2013 to Nigeria. Similarly, in the World Cup, Ivory Coast has certainly underachieved, failing to make it out of the group stage in both 2006 and 2010. With a majority of the golden generation of Ivorian football getting into their thirties, it is now or never if the Ivory Coast finally want to make a quality run with all the talent they have in their side.

However, the Japanese will try to continue the Ivorians failures in major international tournaments. While Japan has not had a great run of form leading into the World Cup with a loss to Jordan in Asian qualifying and Bulgaria and Belarus in international friendlies, the team plays a very positive style of football. With midfield talent like Keisuke Honda of CSKA Moscow and Shinji Kagawa of Manchester United, the Japenese can attack with the best teams in the world, as shown in their wild 4-3 loss to Italy in the Confederations Cup, a game they actually deserved to win with all the chances they created.

On the other end of the spectrum, Greece can shut down almost any offense in the world with their defensive organization and shape. Led by Borussia Dortmund center back Sokratis Papastathopoulos (good luck to the announcers who have to say that name) and Roma right back Vasilis Torosidis, the Greeks allowed just 4 goals in 10 European qualifying matches and had an astonishing 8 clean sheets. Greece will need to get some goals from set pieces, especially with a guy like Georgios Samaras up front at 6'4'' because the team will not get too many opportunities. This is a group where anything can happen, but expect to see Ivory Coast and Colombia to squeak by Japan and Greece by narrow margins.

Group D: Uruguay, Costa Rica, England, Italy (3rd Hardest Group in the CTASI)

One of the things to watch in this World Cup, particularly in Group D with a very highly rated South American side that has won two World Cups in contrast with two very strong European teams that have both been champions of the world's most prestigious contest, is how the dynamic of the tournament being played on South American soil will have an impact on the outcome of the competition.

There are certain cliches and patterns that seem to hold true in international football like England continually falling to Germany in penalties, Mexico always beating the United States on home turf (the U.S. finally did beat "El Tri" in Mexico for the first time since they began playing in Mexico in 1937 in August of last year), and European teams gravely struggling in World Cups that are played in South America (South American teams also do not perform very well in European World Cups, but we will save that for another article). This World Cup in Brazil will serve as a representative template to see if the theory of European teams not performing in South America is just an odd coincidence or a trend that does have some legitimate basis in terms of the success of certain international teams in different continents. If we look back into the past, history tells us that the site of the World Cup does have a real impact on the tournament's results and that South American teams like Uruguay could be at an advantage over European teams like Italy and England since the competition this year is in Brazil. Of the ten World Cups that European sides have won, nine of them have come in Europe (Spain winning in South Africa in 2010 being the only exception). However, in the nine World Cups that have not been played on European soil, a European team has only come away victorious once, and the four World Cups in South America have only been won by teams from the home continent. In the 1930 tournament in Uruguay, the two teams in the final were both South American (Uruguay and Argentina) and European teams had a combined record of just 4-5. In the Brazilian World Cup in 1950, South America dominated once again, as Uruguay and Brazil finished at the top of the table in the final round. In the 1962 cup in Chile, Brazil won the tournament, and European teams went just 15-18-7, continuing South American triumphs in competitions in the continent and European failures. In the 1978 Argentinian World Cup, Argentina walked away as the champion, while European teams had a combined record of just 17-19-11.

Uruguay's two World Cup victories have come in South America and they hope their success in the continent can continue in 2014. In the last World Cup, the Uruguayans made the competition's surprise run to the semifinals after having made just two World Cups since 1990. However, "La Celeste" will not be an under the radar team at all coming into this World Cup after having won the 2011 Copa America in Argentina, subsequently participating in the 2013 Confederations Cup, and having arguably the two best strikers in the entire world with Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani. Suarez is playing as well as anybody right now with Liverpool, as the Uruguayan has propelled the reds to the top of the Premier League table. There are a thousand different adjectives that you can use to describe Suarez's play, as he has been nothing less than incredible so far this season. In just 12 games EPL games, Luis already has 19 goals and although it is obviously still early in the season, Suarez will likely break Andrew Cole's and Alan Shearer's joint record of 34 Premier League goals in a season. Suarez's game changing ability makes him ever so dangerous for Uruguay, as he has the quality to score some fabulous individual goals even if his team is not playing at a top level. His 40-yard smash against Norwich and his brace against Cardiff are symbolic of how he can change a game all on his own. While his striking partner, Edinson Cavani, has not been in his usual goal scoring form of late (mainly because he has been playing out on the wing for PSG due to the presence of Ibra up front) he has the same ability as Suarez to transform a match.

On the other side of things, Italy and England will be tying to change the narrative of European teams struggling in South American World Cups. While Italy's defensive brilliance and tactical shape empowered them to the World Cup in 2006, Italian manager Cesare Prandelli has turned the azzurri into a more attacking side, which is the popular trend in modern football. Unlike their 2010 team which was festered with older age players and a lack of pace, Italy is now a side that can go forward with the best in the world. Although Italy is certainly a different side than the one that won the cup in 2006, two things have remained constant, Andreas Pirlo being the field general in the center of midfield and Gianluigi Buffon barking out orders in between the goalposts. Pirlo's performance against England in the quarterfinals of the European Championship in 2012 is one of the best single displays that I have ever seen in a game that did not feature a single goal and it his unbelievable field vision that allows the rest of the Italians to shine. Buffon, likewise, makes the players around him so much better, as any mistakes that his defense makes he cleans up with extreme calmness and command. If the Italians can get just a little more cohesion amongst some of their forwards and have guys like Stephen El Shaarawy and Giuseppe Rossi playing off Mario Balotelli, Italy could be very dangerous once again.

Then we get to the ever so fascinating merry-go-round that is the English national team. There are so many different variables in England's squad that it is hard to predict who will even be in Roy Hodgson's team come World Cup time. Whether Hodgson goes with some of his elderly, more experienced Englishmen such as Ashley Cole, Glen Johnson, Steven Gerrard, Frank Lampard, James Milner, and Jermaine Defore or goes with some of his more exuberant, young players like Phil Jones, Ross Barkley, Adam Lallana, Andros Townsend, Jay Rodriguez, and Daniel Sturridge, England does not have the bite that Uruguay and Italy possess. The English looked like a very organized and compact side in the European Championships in 2012, but they did not look to have that electric or dynamic feel that some of the other sides in the World Cup certainly have. Unless Wayne Rooney can spark some creativity in the side, England could be headed for an early exit.

Finally, nothing against Costa Rica, a nice side that will be in their third World Cup in their last four attempts and has a very creative midfielder in Fulham man Bryan Ruiz, but they will likely be playing nothing more than spoiler in this stacked group. In a hotly contested group, Italy should come out group winners with Uruguay right behind, leaving England out in the group stage for the first time since 1958.

Group E: Switzerland, Ecuador, France, Honduras (7th Hardest Group in the CTASI)

The utter incompetence of FIFA and its hypercritical nature as the world's governing soccer body reared its ugly head once again this year in the World Cup draw. In the 2006 World Cup, with 14 European teams in the draw and five seeded UEFA clubs, it left nine teams in pot C, which consisted of the unseeded European qualifiers. Since each of the four pots obviously needed an equal number of teams at eight, Serbia and Montenegro were put into a special pot (basically pot D, which had seven teams). They were then drawn with one of the South American or CONCACAF seeded teams (Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico) to ensure that three European teams would not end up in the same group to keep geographic separation in place. Serbia and Montenegro were put into this special pot because their FIFA ranking was the lowest of the European teams in the competition. The exact same situation occurred once again in this World Cup draw. With only four European seeded teams, it left nine non-seeded European qualifiers in pot 4. Therefore, it was assumed that France, whose FIFA ranking of 21 was two spots lower than Russia and thereby the lowest of the European teams, would be put into pot 2 and then selected to be with one of the four seeded South American teams. However, this year, FIFA decided to randomly draw one of the teams from pot 4 into pot 2 (turned out to be Italy) and then put them with one of the four non-European seeded teams in pot 1 (turned out to be Uruguay). Dubbed by many as "potgate," the mirror even suggested that Sepp Blatter, the FIFA President, made the move in order to please and subdue UEFA President and former French national team star Michel Platini, who has been rumored as a possible candidate to run against Blatter for FIFA President in 2015. Therefore, thanks to FIFA disregarding their previous precedent of how to reallocate teams when there are too many clubs in a certain pot, France were handed a very favorable draw, especially compared to the one that Italy got after moving into pot 2.

While France is by no means one of the top teams in the tournament, they have looked more like the Les Blues team that got to the finals in 2006 than the team that boycotted training under former manager Raymond Domenech. Didier Deschamps has done a nice job of reenergizing French football and putting meaning back into the national team shirt. It has also helped that a flurry of some of the best young players in the world like Raphael Varane, Paul Pogba, and Mamadou Sakho are now in the French national side and making a big impact in international play. While the French certainly hope that Karim Benzema can bring his Real Madrid form to the national team (Benzema scored just two goals in France's 10 qualifying matches), the team will heavily rely on their star man Frank Ribery. The 2012-2013 UEFA European Player of the Year provides a majority of France's offense by either taking players down the wing and putting in crosses or cutting inside and firing shots from the top of the box. Ribery, who admittedly had a terrible World Cup in 2010 for a player of his caliber, will have to be in prime form if France want to make a deep run in this year's competition.

Meanwhile, Switzerland can thank its relatively docile group in European qualifying in enabling it to get into the top 8 of the FIFA World Rankings (the national side's highest ranking since it was 11 in the world in August of 1995) and thereby earn a seed in the World Cup drawing. The Swiss dominated against weaker European sides in their qualifying group, which featured Iceland, Slovenia, Norway, Albania, and Cyprus and had an undefeated 7-0-3 record. Although Switzerland has some top class players with the likes of Valon Behrami of Napoli, Stephen Lichtsteiner of Juventus, Gokhan Inler of Napoli, Xherdan Shaqiri of Bayern Munich, and 21-year old Granit Xhaka of Borussia Monchengladbach, they should not be looked upon as a top eight World Cup team.

Ecuador, who should fight Switzerland for second place in the group, looked much better than expected in CONMEBOL qualifying. However, the tri-color will not be able to use the Ecuadorian elevation to their advantage, as they were 7-0-1 when they were playing nearly 10,000 feet above sea level in Quito, but failed to win a game on the road in South American qualifying with a 0-5-3 record.

Finally, while Honduras are a very organized side, they have never won a World cup game (Honduras went 0-1-2 in 1982 and 0-2-1 in 2010) and they will likely have to wait another World Cup to get one. The French should thank FIFA on their way to the round of 16, while the Swiss should narrowly move past Ecuador into the knockout stage.

Group F: Argentina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iran, Nigeria (6th Hardest Group in the CTASI)

When it comes to evaluating the greatest players in the history of a sport, one of the arguments at the crux of the debate is always championships and how the player performs in the sport's biggest tournaments. While the merits of judging a player based on team success and the quality of the players around him in order to achieve a title can be disputed until you are blue in the face, it is one of the ways that many people define the greatest player in a particular sport.

In soccer, while domestic achievements in club football can certainly not be undervalued or diminished, the best players of all-time are almost always remembered for their moments in the World Cup and how they played on the world's biggest stage. Pele scored nearly a goal per game in his club career, but his incredible performances at the World Cup cemented his place as one of the best, if not the best, player in the history of soccer. In Brazil's 1958 World Cup triumph, Pele, at just the age of 17, scored the only goal in the team's quarterfinal win against Wales, notched a second half hat-trick in the semi-finals against France (the youngest player to ever do so), and then added two goals for good measure against Sweden in the final. After winning the 1962 World Cup, Pele became the first ever player to win three World Cups, as the Brazilians won the 1970 competition behind 4 goals from their playmaking #10. Diego Maradona has also become synonymous for his displays at the World Cup, as his performance at the 1986 cup is still something to marvel over. The all-time great had 5 goals in the tournament along with 5 assists, but what will live on forever is his iconic goals in the Argentinians 2-1 quarterfinal victory against England. The first goal from Maradona, coming early on in the second half, has become known as the "hand of God" goal, as Maradona put the ball past the English goalkeeper, Peter Shilton, by using his hand to pop it into the net. Maradona's second goal of the game is widely considered the "goal of the century," as the Argentinian great took the ball from behind midfield and evaded five English defenders before dribbling past the goalkeeper for the remarkable score.

While Lionel Messi has won the Ballon d'Or/FIFA Ballon d'Or 4 times (the most ever), scored the most goals ever in a European season in 2011-2012 with 73, and tied Jose Altafini record of 14 Champions League goals in a single competition (also in 2011-2012), Messi still has a lot to prove on the international stage. In the 2010 World Cup, Messi failed to score a single goal in 5 matches and Argentina went out in the quarterfinals to Germany in a very disappointing campaign for the world's best player. Thus, if Messi wants to be considered in the same category as Pele and Maradona, he needs to turn in a very good performance in Brazil. Argentina does have the most dynamic attack in the world, though, which should allow Messi to thrive in a more playmaking role than just a scorer. Messi could be deployed along side of Argentinian strikers Sergio Aguero and Gonzalo Higuain with the likes of Angel Di Maria and Javier Mascherano patrolling the midfield. Aguero's movement, which is top class, should also provide space for Messi in the middle of the field so that he can use his incredible dribbling ability to shake by defenders. Argentina should be able to score a lot of goals in this year's competition with their potent strike force, especially with Messi at the center of the team's attack. However, as much as this tournament is a referendum on Messi's place in the greatest of all-time discussion, the question with Argentina will actually be their back line. Unlike most of the other top teams in the competition, Argentina does not have an imposing general in center defense like a Thiago Silva for Brazil, a Pique for Spain, or a Hummels for Germany. While Ezequiel Garay of Benfica and Federico Fernandez of Napoli have played well for "la albiceleste," it remains to be seen how they will perform in the world's biggest stage in order to try and help Argentina capture their 4th World Cup.

Meanwhile, Bosnia and Herzegovina will be playing in their first ever major footballing competition more than twenty years after gaining independence in 1992 from Yugoslavia. Although Bosnia will be thrilled just to be in tournament, they could make some people surprised by their very exciting attacking style of play. In just 10 World Cup qualifying matches, Bosnia scored 30 goals, which was only less than Germany (36), Netherlands (34), and England (31). Playing with two strikers up front with Manchester City man Edin Dezeko (his 10 goals were only behind Robin van Persie in qualifying) and Stuttgart striker Vedad Ibisevic (his 8 goals were tied for the third most in qualifying) and stretching the back line, Roma midfielder Miralem Pjanic and Lazio midfielder Senad Lulic are given plenty of space to operate in the middle of the field.

The African Cup of Nations winners, Nigeria, should fight with Bosnia for the runner-up spot in this group behind Argentina. The Super Eagles are surprisingly looking to become the first African confederation champion to win a game at the following World Cup since Cameroon in 2002. The Nigerians have some real quickness in their squad with Victor Moses of Liverpool, Emmanuel Emenike of Fenerbahce, Victor Obinna of Lokomotiv Moscow, and Ahmed Musa of CSKA Moscow. The real ticking point for the Super Eagles, though, is the always reliable John Obi Mikel of Chelsea, who slows down attacks in the center of midfield and is the team's main distributor.

Iran, who actually has the highest FIFA ranking in Asia, rounds out this moderately difficult group. The Iranians finished ahead of South Korea in the final Asian qualifying stage and are looking to get their 2nd ever World Cup win (Iran did have a 2-1 victory over the United States in the 1998 World Cup in France). In fact, Iranian captain Javad Nekounam, who played for Osasuna in Spain for years, is a top quality footballer. However, the Iranian fans foolishly gave Lionel Messi added incentive to have his Argentinians crush them in Belo Horizonte on June 21. When the World Cup draw was announced, thousands of people from Iran wrote insulting message to Lionel Messi on facebook, but as we all know, the Iranians will need to do a lot more then just trash talking in order to even touch Argentina and Messi. This group should see a close fight for second, but Argentina and Bosnia should move on to the next phase of the competition.

Group G: Germany, Portugal, Ghana, United States (Hardest Group in the CTASI)

The group of death; the group of death. Just uttering the phase brings apprehension and trepidation to coaches, players, and fans alike, and Germany, Portugal, Ghana, and the United States will feel the full brunt of the abhorrent notion when the World Cup commences in June of this year in Brazil.

In the past, we have had some very arduous World Cup groups that have made the other quartets in the competition look straightforward and painless compared to the all so challenging and imposing group of death. In 2002, group F was one of the toughest groups that the world's biggest international tournament had seen in years. It was made up of 2nd ranked Argentina, who were 1998 World Cup quarter-finalists and 1999 Copa America quarter-finalists, 10th ranked England, who made it to the round of 16 in 1998, 16th ranked Sweden, who finished 3rd in the 1994 World Cup, and finally 40th ranked Nigeria, who were 2000 African Cup of Nations finalists. While it does not happen all that often, in 2006, there was a justifiable basis to claim that there were two quartets that could be considered the group of death. Group C in that year's competition was composed of 4th ranked Argentina, who had come in 2nd in the Copa America in 2004 and were runner-up at the Confederations Cup in 2005, 3rd ranked Netherlands, who had made the World Cup semifinals in 1998 and the European Championship semifinals in 2004, the 41st ranked and second highest ranked team in Africa, Ivory Coast, who had made the African Cup of Nations finals in 2006, and 47th ranked Serbia and Montenegro. Meanwhile, group E had three teams in the top 12 of the FIFA World Rankings, as the group was made up of 12th ranked Italy, who had already won the World Cup three times in 1934, 1938, and 1982, the United States, who at the time had a record best FIFA ranking of eight and were 2002 World Cup quarter-finalists and 2005 CONCACAF Gold Cup champions, the 2nd ranked team in the entire world, Czech Republic, who had made the semi-finals of the European Championships in 2004, and 50th ranked Ghana. In 2010, while some contested that there was no group of death, group G of Brazil, Portugal, Ivory Coast, and North Korea fit the bill. Top-ranked Brazil were 2006 World Cup quarter-finalists in still a disappointing year, 2007 Copa America champions, and Confederations Cup winners in 2009, 10th ranked Portugal were World Cup semi-finalists in 2006, quarter-finalists in the 2008 European Championships, and had the one of the best two players in the world in Cristiano Ronaldo, and 19th ranked Ivory Coast were 2010 African Cup of Nations quarter-finalists and were making their 2nd consecutive World Cup. While North Korea were the worst side in the entire tournament, the top three teams in this group were so strong that the fact that one of the teams would not move on to the knockout stage made it the group of death.

However, these past groups pale in comparison to the burdensome and laborious quartet that is group G of the 2014 World Cup. Germany, Portugal, Ghana, and the United States, who all made the knockout stage in the 2010 World Cup, had a combined record of 32-6-6 in qualifying and each could be considered the best team in their confederation (Portugal may be a little of a stretch but they are still top five in the toughest continent in football). While group B and group D both have one weaker side with Australia in group B and Costa Rica in group D, group G is stacked across all four teams, as the lowest seeded team in this group is still ranked 23rd in the world according to FIFA. In fact, Germany's #2 world ranking, United States' #13 ranking, Portugal's #14 ranking, and Ghana #23 ranking have a combined mark of 52, which is the lowest combined rankings of a quartet since group G of the 1998 World Cup. (in comparison, this year, group A has a combined 112 ranking, group B has a combined 78 ranking, group C has a combined 80 ranking, group D has a combined 56 ranking, group E has a combined 84 record, group F has a combined 101 ranking, and group H has a 112 ranking).

Germany, whose domestic league represented both Champions League finalists in 2013, has more depth than any other side in the entire tournament, taking most of their players from German giants Bayern Munich and blossoming club Borussia Dortmund. Unlike some of the other top teams in the world who rely on a key player to initiate their attack (Neymar with Brazil, Falcao with Colombia, Messi with Argentina, Suarez with Uruguay, Rooney with England, Ribery with France), Germany have so many different players who can break a defense down such as Toni Kroos, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Mesut Ozil, Mario Gotze, Marco Reus, and Thomas Muller. Their intricate passing in midfield is top notch and their combination of exquisite ball movement in the center of the field along with speedy wingers on the outside is hard to find in world football. Germany has made it to at least the quarterfinals of every World Cup since 1982, but they have fell short of a World Cup title countless times. Deutschland have so many quality midfielders to dictate the middle of the park that anything less than a World Cup will be a failure for the nation.

Germany's European foe, Portugal, has one of the two best players in the world in Cristiano Ronaldo, whose next goal for the navigators will set the Portuguese record for most goals in an international career. You don't need to be a genius to recognize Ronaldo's unique talent and his incredible capability to turn a game on its head like few players have ever been able to do in the history of the game. Ronaldo has a rare dribbling ability to go along with his exceptional speed, which affords him much space when he has the ball and allows him to get shots off because defenders can not catch him if they press him too tight. However, the notion that Portugal is just a one man team is a complete fallacy. While Ronaldo may not get the same supply that he does with Real Madrid when he has the likes of Gareth Bale, Luka Modric, Angel di Maria, and Isco, Portugal still has a very solid roster. Joao Moutinho is one of the smartest passing midfielders in the entire world and Nani provides quickness on the opposite Portuguese flanks. Even more importantly, though, Portugal has a center back pairing whose familiarity gives the team a safety net if they push too many men forward to help Ronaldo, as Bruno Alves and Pepe have both had upwards up 55 national team caps.

Finally, we get to the United States and their kryptonite that is the Ghanaian national team. In the 2006 World Cup, coming into the final match of the group stage, Italy were on 4 points, Czech Republic and Ghana were on 3 points, and the United States were on 1 point. With an Italy win over Czech Republic, which did occur, the US needed a victory over Ghana to advance to the knockout stage. However, the Ghanaians broke the Americans spirit after scoring a penalty kick in stoppage time of the first half and went on to win the match and end the United States' World Cup. The United States and Ghana then played an exceptionally memorable game in the round of 16 of the following World Cup. After Landon Donovan scored a game tying goal that sent the match into overtime, the Ghanaians broke the United States' heart one more time as Asamoah Gyan's 93rd minute goal in extra time sent the African nation through to the quarterfinals at the expense of the US. Just to add injury to insult, Ghana even knocked out the United States in the under-20 World Cup this past year. Destiny has brought these two sides together for the third straight World Cup in the toughest group we possbily have ever seen, as Ghana and the US open up against each other in Natal. Many players remain on Ghana's squad from the 2010 World Cup, most notably Kwadwo Asamoah of Juventus, Kevin-Prince Boateng of Schalke, brothers Andre and Jordan Ayew of Marseille, and captain Asamoah Gyan of Al Ain. However, the United States have been on a great run of form since the 2010 World Cup and with Jozy Altidore starting to link up better with the midfield play of Clint Dempsey and Landon Donovan, the Yanks are a much better team than four years ago. In a group that is almost impossible to predict, Germany should get out unscathed with former German legend Jurgen Klinsmann leading the US to the knockout stage in a minor upset.

Group H: Belgium, Algeria, Russia, South Korea (8th Hardest Group in the CTASI)

There was so much speculation over the past couple of weeks about who would be in the group of death, and the variety of possible draws in which we could have the most difficult group in World Cup history with every team in the top 24 of the FIFA World Rankings going to Brazil except for Ukraine. However, in every World Cup there are always one or two groups that seem to lack the depth that is normally present throughout the world's biggest international soccer tournament. In 2002, with hosts Japan as the seeded team, group H of Belgium, Russia, Tunisia, and Japan lacked the quality of all the other groups. In 2006, group B of England, Sweden, Paraguay, and Trinidad and Tobago along with group D of Portugal, Mexico, Angola, and Iran formed by far the weakest groups of the tournament. In 2010, the group of Paraguay, Slovakia, New Zealand, and Italy along with the quartet of the United States, England, Slovenia, and Algeria were significantly weaker than any of the other four-team groupings in the competition. In this year's rendition of the FIFA World Cup, group H of Belgium, Russia, South Korea, and Algeria seems to be the "group of debt."

Belgium has been everybody's dark-horse team to make a deep run in the World Cup, possibly reminiscent of a 1998 Croatia, a 2002 Turkey, or a 2010 Uruguay. However, Belgium has been talked about so much as a tournament sleeper, that ironically, they are probably no longer an under the radar team that could surprise people with a few victories in the knockout stage. With a deep roster that includes an array of world-class players such as Vincent Kompany, Jan Vertonghen, Thomas Vermaelen, Marouane Fellaini, Axel Witsel, and Eden Hazard, it would not be prudent to consider the Belgians as a long shot title contender or a surprise if they do make a deep run. The Belgians, though, still have some very interesting battles at a variety of positions, as the squad actually has too many players worthy of a starting XI spot (who would have ever thought we would be saying that about Belgium). Belgian manager Marc Wilmots will have to decide whether to employ Christian Benteke or Romelu Lukaku in the team's lone striker role as the red devils typically like to play the now-so very popular 4-2-3-1 formation. In qualifying, Benteke got a majority of the starts for the team, but Lukaku already has 8 premier league goals and at the age of 20 he is a commanding physical presence. Wilmots will also have to decide which Belgian players will be inserted into the team's attacking midfield roles, especially on the wings, as Nacer Chadli, Kevin Mirallas, Dries Mertens, Eden Hazard, and Kevin de Bruyne will all be vying for two or three spots in the squad. However, having too many playings deserving of positions on the field is always a good problem to have, as the Belgians are truly in their golden generation of football. Just four years ago in December of 2009, Belgium was the 66th ranked team in the world, and now they are a serious World Cup title contender with a bevy of seriously talented players. It would not be too far-fetched to claim that Belgium has the best squad in the entire tournament, which is astounding to say about a nation that hasn't even made the past two World Cups and has one win in the competition in the least 20 years. Belgium should also be helped out by the rest of the weak teams in their porous group.

While South Korea has been in eight straight World Cups dating all the way back to 1986 (the only other teams that have had a longer World Cup appearance streak are soccer giants Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Italy, and Spain), the reds likely have one of their weaker sides since they began their run of really positive form nearly 30 years ago. Although the South Koreans have one of the best young players in the entire tournament in 21-year old Son Heung-Min of Beyern Leverkusen (he scored a hat-trick against his former club Hamburg in November), they did not play all that well in Asian qualifying, finishing behind Iran and only advancing past Uzbekistan on goal differential. In fact, the South Koreans lost to a reduced Russian side in a friendly in Dubai, which should be a sign of things to come in their game in Cuiaba.

The Russians and their manager Fabio Capello have had similar histories, featuring early triumphs followed by a prolonged struggle. Now, they are both looking to have a big World Cup in 2014. Playing as the Soviet Union from 1958 to 1990, the USSR made it to the quarterfinals in 1958, 1962, and 1970 and the semifinals in 1966. However, since the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, Russia has only made the World Cup in three of six attempts and has never advanced past the group stage. Likewise, Fabio Capello's managerial career began off with immense success, as the Italian manager won seven league championships (four with AC Milan, two with Real Madrid, and one with AS Roma) along with a Champions League title with the rossoneri. However, his four year run as England boss was a disaster, as the English suffered their biggest defeat in World Cup history after a 4-1 thumping against Germany in the round of 16 and then Capello resigned after a clash with the FA over John Terry's captaincy. However, group H is a perfect quartet for the Russians and Capello to turn everything around, especially if they can get a result against group favorite Belgium.

Finally, Algeria will be appearing in their second straight World Cup, but they should not be around for all too long. The Algerians, who needed away goals to advance past Burkina Faso in the final round of African qualification, are undoubtedly one of the weaker sides in the competition. If all things go as planned, Belgium and Russia should have little trouble taking care of South Korea and Algeria and moving on to face stiffer competition in the round of 16.

After reading more than 9,000 words, you probably just want my full predictions for the entire tournament by now, so here we go:

Round of 16:
Group A Winner: Brazil
Group B Runner-up: Chile

Group C Winner: Ivory Coast
Group D Runner-up: Uruguay

Group E Winner: France
Group F Runner-up: Bosnia and Herzegovina

Group G Winner: Germany
Group H Runner-up: Russia

Group B Winner: Spain
Group A Runner-up: Mexico

Group D Winner: Italy
Group C Runner-up: Colombia

Group F Winner: Argentina
Group E Runner-up: Switzerland

Group H Winner: Belgium
Group G Runner-up: United States

Quarterfinals:
Brazil
Ivory Coast

France
Germany 

Spain
Italy

Argentina
Belgium

Semifinals:
Brazil
Germany

Spain
Argentina

Finals:
Germany
Argentina

Winner:
Germany

1 comment:

  1. There is a group with 3 world cup winners yet you think Group G is harder?! You must be American.

    ReplyDelete