Thursday, August 29, 2013

The Top 10 Most Intriguing College Football Games Of The 2013 Season

After 15 years of constant debate and discussion and more controversy than an Amanda Bynes tweet or a Kendrick Lamar verse, the BCS is finally in its final year of existence (college football will move to a playoff starting in 2014). While the BCS has certainly had a prodigious amount of flaws (secluding teams outside of the AQ-conferences from playing in major bowl games, putting in rules seasons after they actually apply [Kansas St. Rule], revenue sharing amongst conferences), it has at least given college football the most exciting regular season in all of sports. Unlike college basketball where an eleven loss team can win the National Championship (the 1987-1988 "Danny and the Miracles" Kansas Jayhawks), one loss in a college football season can eliminate a team from title contention, which makes every week of the season a thrilling must win scenario. While the BCS setup obviously doesn't provide anywhere near the excitement of the college basketball postseason, it lends itself to a riveting and captivating regular season. In its last hurrah, the BCS will once again showcase some of the most scintillating regular season college football games for its fans. Here are the top 10 most intriguing contests of the season.

# 5 Georgia at #8 Clemson on August 31:

One of the many downfalls of the BCS has been the fact that many of the top teams in college football have avoided playing quality opponents in the non-conference. While out of conference rivalry games like Notre Dame-USC, Florida St.-Florida, and South Carolina-Clemson have still been contested over the years, teams in the powerhouse conferences (such as the SEC and Big 12) have seen little value in tough non-conference scheduling with an already grueling conference slate. For example, Texas A&M's four non-conference games this season are against Rice, Sam Houston St., SMU, and UTEP, whose players will likely be so out of place that they might ask Johnny Manziel for his autograph. However, college football may have one of its best games of the season before September even begins, as Georgia and Clemson, preseason top 10 teams, are both legitimate National Championship contenders. Georgia, who were just 5 yards and an unintentional catch away from an SEC Championship and a berth in the BCS title game last year, return nearly their entire offense from a team that ranked third in the SEC in points per game at 37.8. While Aaron Murray is the leader of the offense with his poise and leadership, Todd Gurley is a definite Heisman sleeper. The tail back will be running behind the exact same offense line as last season, which features Dallas Lee and all-conference guard Chris Burnette. Gurley, who finished with 1,385 yards in his freshman season and became the 3rd freshman running back in Georgia history along with Herschel Walker in 1980 and Knowshon Moreno in 2007 to eclipse the 1,000 yard mark in their first year in Athens, will be a handful for the Clemson defense. However, if the game turns into a shootout, the Clemson offense will be more then ready. Last season, Clemson quarterback Tajh Boyd was in the top 5 in the country in yards per attempt (9.1), touchdowns (36), and quarterback rating (165.6), and his ability to move around the pocket with his feet gives his receivers extra time down the field. Clemson also has the most talented wide receiver in the country, outside of Marqise Lee at USC, in Sammy Watkins. Despite his off the field troubles last year, Watkins's ability is undeniable and how Georgia's cornerbacks, Darius Robinson and Bashaud Breeland, deal with his athleticism could determine the outcome of the game.

#6 South Carolina at #5 Georgia on September 7:

You will be hard-pressed to find another team in the last ten years of college football to open up their season in back-to-back weeks against top 10 opponents like the Georgia Dawgs have to do this season. After traveling to Death Valley, the Bulldogs return home to face death himself (just ask Vincent Smith) in Jadeveon Clowney. Clowney, who Georgia coach Mark Reicht says "is the best football player in the world," is the consensus top prospect in college football and could become the first pure defensive player to ever win the Heisman Trophy (cornerback Charles Woodson won the award in 1997 but he was also a prolific kick and punt returner). Clowney is a freak-of-nature and a once in a decade kind of defensive pass rusher. Last season, Clowney set South Carolina single season records in sacks (13) and tackles for a loss (23.5) and he is nearly impossible to block one-on-one for any college tackle. The defensive end possesses the rare combination of quickness and incredible strength, which is why he is often compared to former number one overall pick Mario Williams. Georgia will have to figure out a way to block Clowney whether it be keeping their tight end on the offensive line as an extra blocker or sending numerous double teams his way because in the Gamecocks last two victories over Georgia, Clowney has had 3 sacks and 6 solo tackles. While Clowney commands a lot of attention (and for good reason), Connor Shaw is going to have to make some plays for the South Carolina offense. Although Shaw's accuracy is underrated, his ability to run for first downs and keep the defense off balance is what caused Georgia so much trouble last season. South Carolina or Georgia have represented the SEC East in the conference title game the past three seasons, and the winner of this year's battle at Sanford Stadium should be in the driver's seat for the 2013 divisional crown.

#1 Alabama at #7 Texas A&M on September 14:

There is no doubt that the Alabama-Texas A&M showdown in Tuscaloosa was the best game of the college football season last year, as the clash had all the ingredients of an instant classic. First, the game featured a title contender, which put the battle in the national spotlight. Going into the conference matchup, Alabama was 9-0 and was looking to become the first team since Nebraska (1994-1995, 1997) to win three national championships in four years and the first team since USC (2003-2004) to repeat as college football title winners. The showdown also featured the compelling storyline of a new team coming into the very difficult and rugged Southeastern Conference. Most people assumed that it would take Texas A&M a few years to get accustomed to the physicality and toughness of the SEC. Although the Aggies went into the game against Bama with a 4-2 conference record, they lost to the two SEC powerhouses they played (Florida and LSU) earlier on in the season. Thus, the Aggies victory over Alabama was the all the more important because it proved that they belonged in the arduous SEC and that they could play with the best teams in the country. Finally, the game featured an incredible Heisman Trophy performance from Johnny Manziel. Not only did Manziel run for 92 yards, but he also was 24 for 31 throwing the football with 253 yards and 2 touchdowns including a wild TD pass where the freshman QB fumbled the ball, scrambled around the pocket, and then threw to a wide open Ryan Swope in the end zone. With the cloud over Manziel's eligibility no longer a dilemma (Manziel is only suspended for the first half of Texas A&M first game against Rice), the Alabama-Texas A&M rematch in College Station could once again be the game of the season. While the Aggies do have the Heisman Trophy winner returning at quarterback, the question marks surrounding Manziel's leadership will loom over him for the entire season. Obviously, Manziel was constantly in the spotlight following the 2012 season, and he did not handle himself in the most positive fashion. The quarterback's negligence surrounding his autograph signings and his departure from the Manning Passing Academy highlighted his immaturity. Nonetheless, Manziel is a very special quarterback, as his ability to move around in the pocket, coupled with his throwing touch, is nearly impossible to find in college football. Alabama will have to do a much better job containing Manziel if they want to avenge their only loss from last season. While the Tide do have some overhaul on their defensive line, the team's secondary is very similar to the one last season that allowed just 173.6 passing yards per game (best in the SEC). However, the key for Bama against the Aggies will likely be their linebacking core. Led by 2012 All-American C. J. Mosley, the Tide will have to make sure that Manziel doesn't get out of the pocket, where he can extend plays and move the chains with his feet or with his arm. Although the Manziel penalty is another example of the feebleness, incompetence, and languor of the NCAA, the ruling does allow for an unbelievable game in College Station.

#16 Oklahoma at #14 Notre Dame on September 28:

Oklahoma and Notre Dame have a lot more in common then you may think. First off, both schools are two of the most accomplished programs in the history of college football, as only Alabama has won more National Championships than the Fighting Irish and the Sooners since the poll era began in 1936 (Alabama has 10 titles, while Notre Dame has 8 National Championships, including 4 in a 7 year span from 1943 to 1949 and Oklahoma has 7 titles including back-to-back championships in 1955-1956 and 1974-1975). Coming into this season, both schools have to replace very successful starting quarterbacks although for very different reasons. The Sooners need to find a successor to Landry Jones, who set Oklahoma school records in career passing yards (16,646), completions (1,388), and touchdowns (123) and finished with a 39-11 record in four years as a starter at the school. Notre Dame have to replace Everett Golson (suspended for the season), who led the Fighting Irish to their first National Championship game in the BCS era (since 1998). Finally, while both schools have some very high level starters returning on the defensive side of the ball (2012 All-Big 12 First Team cornerback Aaron Colvin for Oklahoma and 2012 First Team AP All-American defensive tackle Stephon Tuitt for Notre Dame), both teams will need to find players to fill the shoes of players that moved on to the NFL like Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te'o (2nd in the 2012 Heisman Trophy voting, the highest finish for an exclusively defensive player since Hugh Green of Pittsburgh in 1980) and Sooners cornerback Tony Jefferson. First and foremost however, if both programs want to find success in 2013, they will have to get consistent quarterback play. The Fighting Irish are going to go with Tommy Rees as their starter. Rees, who started every game for Notre Dame in their 8-5 season in 2011, has no where near the explosive capabilities of Everett Golson. Furthermore, Rees lacks the mobility that Golson possesses and the arm strength, but he has shown that he can be a steady presence behind center, which is what Notre Dame is going to need out of him. In Norman, Blake Bell and Trevor Knight are still in a quarterback battle despite that fact that Oklahoma opens up their season in less than 2 weeks, but most people think that Bell will eventually come out as the starter. "The bulldozer" is a physical specimen and has shown his strength the last two years in goal line packages, as Bell had 13 rushing touchdowns his freshman year and 11 last year, which puts him on pace to break Oklahoma's career rushing touchdowns record by a quarterback. Despite his running prowess, Bell has only completed 10 passes in two years at the school (albeit as a backup) and will have to prove to defenses that he can throw the ball down the field in order to open up his downhill running ability.

#3 Oregon at #4 Stanford on November 7:

USC dominated the Pac-10 for so many years during the 2000's that it became almost a forgone conclusion that the Trojans would be in the National Championship picture at the end of the year. From 2002 to 2008, Southern Cal had a combined record of 80-9 and won 7 straight Pac-10 titles (to put that in perspective, Cal is the only team in Pac-10 history to win more than 3 consecutive conference titles). In that 7-year span under Pete Carroll, not only did USC have three Hesiman Trophy winners (Carson Palmer in 2002, Matt Leinart in 2004, and Reggie Bush in 2005), but they also made 7 straight BCS Bowl games and were co-champions in 2003 with LSU, sole champions in 2004 after a 55-19 blowout win over Oklahoma, and runner's up in 2005 after a 41-38 loss to Texas in one of the greatest games in college football history. However, things have changed out west over the past 4 years, especially after the departure of Pete Carroll to the NFL. Oregon, with their flashy uniforms and high tempo offense, became the first team since Ohio St. to appear in four straight BCS bowl games, and in 2010, the Ducks narrowly lost the in BCS National Championship Game to the Auburn Tigers. Stanford has also enjoyed an unprecedented amount of success over the past few years. The Cardinals, who from 1981 to 2008 had 21 losing seasons and just 7 winning seasons, have made three consecutive BCS bowl appearances. Stanford's 2013 Rose Bowl victory over Wisconsin was the school's first win in "the grandadday of them all" in 41 years since a 13-12 victory over Michigan in 1972. With USC outside of the preseason top 25 for the first time in 12 years since 2001 and Oregon and Stanford in the top 5, expect more of the same in the Pac-12. While Oregon return 15 of their starters from last season's 12-1 team, the Ducks will have a very different feel without Chip Kelly on the sidelines. Kelly, who left Oregon for the Philadelphia Eagles, was an offensive mastermind in Eugene, as the Ducks fast paced offense averaged 44.65 points per game in Kelly's four seasons in the northwest. Although replacing Kelly will not be easy, Mark Helfrich is inheriting a loaded Oregon offense. Pac-12 Offensive Freshman of the Year Marcos Mariota is the perfect quarterback for Oregon's spread offense, as he keeps the defense honest on the read option with his outstanding quickness. The Hawaiian native is also a very underrated passer, as Mariota threw 32 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions in his first year in the Pac-12. The Ducks also have the biggest home run threat in the entire country with their skilled running back and returner De'Anthony Thomas. Arguably the fastest player in the country, Thomas averaged nearly 8 yards per run and almost 10 yards per catch in a 16 touchdown sophomore season that showed his ability to break almost any play for a touchdown. On the other side of the field, Stanford have one of the most efficent quarterback in the country in Kevin Hogan. After taking over the starting job from Josh Nunes last season, Hogan had a 6-0 record, which included victories over four ranked teams and was highlighted by Stanford's overtime win over undefeated Oregon. With a team that loves to pound the football behind a huge offensive line (which is returning all-american tackle David Yankey), Hogan is very smart with the football, as he threw just 3 interceptions in over 150 passes last season. Although a lot can happen in a football season, do not be surprised to see an undefeated showdown in Palo Alto between Oregon and Stanford on November 7th.

#12 LSU at #1 Alabama on November 9:

There has not been a better college football game over the past 5 years than the LSU-Alabama clashes in the SEC West. In 2008, undefeated and top ranked Alabama needed overtime to beat LSU in a wild game that featured a blocked Crimson Tide fied goal at the end of regulation from just 29 yards away. In 2009, in their first of five straight top 10 battles, Alabama knocked off the Tigers for the second year in a row, the first time the school had won the rivalry game two consecutive seasons since 1998-1999. The following year, LSU got a measure of revenge, as Les Miles and the Tigers beat Nick Saban's Crimson Tide for the first time since 2007 in a 24-21 win in Baton Rouge. Despite the rivalry's newfound vigor in Nick Saban's first few years in Tuscaloosa, the LSU-Alabama game has managed to somehow intensify itself over the past two seasons. In 2011, in what many pundits dubbed as the latest "game of the century" due to the fact that it was college football's first regular season matchup between the top two teams in the nation since Michigan and Ohio St. in 2006, LSU beat Alabama in a defensive struggle 9-6 in overtime. However, the teams met again in the BCS National Championship Game and the tides were turned (no pun intended), as Alabama shutout the Tigers 21-0. Last season, in the latest matchup between the teams with National Championship implications, AJ McCarron engineered a 72-yard game winning drive with 51 seconds remaining to help the top ranked Crimson Tide edge past the Tigers. Once again this year, the LSU-Alabama matchup will be one of the most significant games of the entire season. Alabama could have the best college football team since the 2001 Miami Hurricane squad that featured Ken Dorsey, Clinton Portis, Willis McGahee, Frank Gore, Jeremy Shockey, Kellen Winslow Jr., Andre Johnson, Bryant McKinnie, D.J. Williams, Jonathan Vilma, Sean Taylor, Antrel Rolle, and Ed Reed (just to name a few). If the Tide do have a question mark, it is their offensive line. Anybody who watched the BCS National Championship Game last year could tell you just how dominant Alabama's line was against Notre Dame, as the Bama running backs were constantly getting into the second tier of the Fighting Irish defense without even getting touched due to the massive push from their offensive line. However, Alabama lost All-American guard Chance Warmack, two time All-American guard and center Barrett Jones, and All-American tackle D. J. Fluker to the NFL, and will thus have to replace a significant portion of one of the best offensive lines in college football history. While the Alabama line may not be as overpowering as it has been the past few years, it is blocking for another supremely talented Bama running back in T.J. Yeldon. As good as Eddie Lacy was last season for the Crimson Tide, Yeldon, who set the Alabama freshman record in yards (1,108) and tied the school record in touchdowns as a freshman (12), caught the eye of fans across the country. Unlike some of the recent power backs from the Crimson Tide like Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, Eddie Lacy, Yeldon is more of a speed back and can turn any play into major yardage. On the other side of the field, while LSU is losing a majority of their defensive starters including Barkevious Mingo, Sam Montgomery, and Eric Reid, the Tigers should still be very solid defensively, as the team has only had one season since 2002 in which they allowed more than 20 points per game, which was in 2008. If former Ravens offensive coordinator Cam Cameron can help Zach Mettenberger become more then just an average quarterback that doesn't make a lot of mistakes, the Tigers could be one of the most underrated teams in the nation heading into this season.

#13 Oklahoma St. at #15 Texas on November 16:

One of the best games of the college football season is typically the Red River Rivalry between Texas and Oklahoma. The two schools have combined for 11 national championships (7 for Oklahoma and 4 for Texas), 75 conference titles (43 for Oklahoma and 32 for Texas), 7 Heisman Trophy Winners (Bill Vessels in 1952, Steve Owens in 1969, Billy Sims in 1978, Jason White in 2003, and Sam Bradford in 2008 for Oklahoma and Earl Campbell in 1977 and Ricky Williams in 1998 for Texas), and 1 legendary rivalry game. However, there has been another matchup the last few years that has dwarfed the Red River Rivalry: the Texas-Oklahoma St. game. In 2011, Oklahoma beat Texas by 38 points in the largest blowout in the rivalry since a 2003 65-13 Oklahoma smashing. That same year, the Cowboys and the Longhorns, both top 25 teams at the time, played a thrilling game in Austin, which featured a 100 yard kickoff return by Foswhitt Whittaker and a 74 yard run by Jeremy Smith in the same quarter. Last year, Oklahoma once again dominated Texas, as the Sooners won 63-21 in Dallas, the 5th biggest blowout in the 107 year history of the historic game (only in 1908, 1956, 2000, 2003 were their bigger blowouts). In comparison, Texas and Oklahom St. played the most electrifying game of the Big 12 season last year, as the Longhorns knocked off the Cowboys 41-36 in a game that featured 77 points, including 35 in the first quarter. Oklahoma St. and Texas figure to be the top two teams in the Big 12 this season, which means that their game in Austin figures to be not only the most exciting game in the conference, but also very significant in terms of what Big 12 team will represent the league in the BCS. For Texas, longtime head coach Mack Brown is in a make or break year. Brown, who has been at UT since 1998 (the longest longest tenured coach in FBS besides Frank Beamer at Virginia Tech and Larry Blakeney at Troy), obviously has had a lot of success at the school, taking Texas to 4 BCS Bowl games (2004, 2005, 2008, 2009) including a National Championship in 2005 with Vince Young. However, in the last three years, the Longhorns have not had a season of more than 9 wins, and their 22-16 record over that span is the worst three year record for the Longhorns since they went 16-16 from 1991-1993 under John Mackovic. Fortunately for Mack Brown, Texas is returning 19 starters (tied for the most in the country with Bowling Green, Indiana, Miami, and UTSA) including their starting quarterback David Ash. Ash was very solid last season behind center, as he avoided throwing an interception in 7 of his 12 starts and only had 3 games where he had more than 8 incompletions. However, for Texas to have their best season since they went to the National Championship in 2009 with Colt McCoy, Ash has to improve against better opponents like Oklahoma, where he was 13 for 29 with 113 yards and 2 interceptions in the game last year. For Oklahoma State, their offense is going to put up a lot of points like they always do, no matter if J.W. Walsh or Clint Chelf is starting. In the last three years under Mike Gundy, the Cowboys have been in the top 5 in both yards per game and points per game offensively. The question that will define the Cowboys season is how their defense will play against an offense with the explosive of Texas. If Oklahoma St. can improve their defense, which allowed only 24 points per game at home last season, Mike Gundy could lead the Cowboys to their 3rd double digit win season in the last four years.

#2 Ohio St. at #17 Michigan on November 30:

There are only a few rivalries in sports where you can truly throw out the records because of the intensity and emotion that the players always show on the field regardless of what has happened earlier on in a season, and Michigan and Ohio St. is definitely one of those such rivalries. While it may not be fair, coaches at the two schools are often defined by how their team performs in "The Game." For example, despite the fact that John Cooper led Ohio St. to three Big Ten titles (1993, 1996, 1998) and a Rose Bowl in 1996 and two straight Sugar Bowls in 1997 and 1998, he was a dismal 2-10-1 against Michigan. In fact, the Buckeyes lost their undefeated seasons in 1993, 1995, and 1996 to the Wolverines, which was a principal reason why Cooper was fired from the Ohio school. When Cooper was asked if the losses to Michigan had anything to do with his dismissal, the longtime Ohio St. coach replied, "I'm sure that was a big factor, and the reason I won't be coaching here anymore." Furthermore, although Lloyd Carr won a National Championship with Michigan in 1997, his legacy is often damaged because he went just 1-6 against Jim Tressel's Buckeyes from 2001 to 2007, which allowed Ohio St. to make five BCS Bowl games (2002-2003, 2005-2007) and two National Championships (2006-2007). Obviously, the Michigan-Ohio St. game means a lot, and this year will be no different. The Buckeyes, whose 12-0 record in 2012 was just the school's second undefeated season in the last 38 years, may have their best team since they won the National Championship in 2002 and the school's best quarterback since Troy Smith won the Heisman Trophy in 2006. In a very deep class of college football quarterbacks, Braxton Miller may be the most dangerous matchup in all of college football. Miller's speed and agility in the open field is unmatched by any other top college football quarterback, as Miller was 4th in the Big Ten last season with 1,271 yards and set an Ohio St. QB record in rushing yards in a season. While Miller's ability to make big plays with his feet gives him the latitude to not be as efficient throwing the ball as some other quarterbacks need to be, the 2012 Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year needs to be more accurate in the intermediate passing game. If Miller can bring up his completion percentage from 58.3 percent (only Andrew Maxwell from Michigan St. and Caleb TerBush from Purdue had a lower completion rate in the Big Ten), it will open up the Buckeyes run game even more. On the other side of the field, Michigan have some very good pieces returning from last season, but they may be one year away from contending for much more than a Big Ten title. While Denard Robinson certainly provided the highlight reel plays with his unbelievable quickness last year, the Wolverines will be much more steady on offense with a quarterback that can actually throw the ball in Devin Gardner (sorry, Denard). They also have one of the top offensive lineman in the country at left tackle with 2012 First Team All-American Taylor Lewan returning to school for his senior year. However, not only do Michigan have to replace a significant amount of their defensive front, but they also will be without star linebacker Jake Ryan for most, if not the entire season. Nonetheless, no matter who is on the field, Michigan and Ohio St. is arguably the best rivalry in all of sports, so saddle up for Brady Hoke-Urban Meyer round 2 in November.

#11 Florida St. at #10 Florida on November 30:

Some college football rivalries are synonymous with the tradition and the history attached to the contest like the Army-Navy Game, the Big Game (Stanford and Cal), or the Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate Game (Georgia and Georgia Tech). While Florida-Florida St. certainly has its fair share of history, the rivalry has become one of college football's most attractive battles because of the flare and fervor associated with the teams. Whether it was Deion Sanders, Derrick Brooks, Charlie Ward, Warrick Dunn, or Chris Weinke from Florida St., or Emmitt Smith, Brad Culpepper, Danny Wuerffel, Ike Hillard, or Fred Taylor from Florida, the in-state bragging rights game always had electrifying star power during the 1980's and 1990's. However, the rivalry lost its excitement when Florida went just 32-18 from 2002 to 2005 and when Florida St. had a mediocre 47-30 slide from 2004 to 2009. However, the Florida-Florida St. rivalry seems to be returning to its glory days. Last year, both teams finished in the top 10 of the AP poll for the first time since 2000, and the Gators and Seminoles have expectations to do the same this year. While Florida St. is losing a significant amount of talent on the defensive front, they return their entire secondary except for Xavier Rhodes and have the second best recruiting class in the country coming into school. With a solid defensive backfield and an entire offensive line returning for their junior and senior seasons, the Seminoles have the ingredients for another BCS Bowl bid if they can get consistent quarterback play out of Jameis Winston. Winston, who was the top quarterback recruit in the 2012 class, is a lethal dual threat quarterback that can throw and run the ball equally well. While his maturity under pressure has yet to be seen, he has the natural ability to be college football's next star quarterback. On the other side of the field, Florida will have a very similar philosophy to the one that carried them to the Sugar Bowl last season: pound the football with the run and keep the game close with a stout defense. Despite his ability to extend plays with his feet, Florida quarterback Jeff Driskel does not have a big arm and he is more of a game manager then anything else. The Gators will once again rely on him to be smart with the football and not make silly turnovers (he only had 5 interceptions in 245 attempts last year). Although the Gators lost some key defensive pieces to the NFL (DT Shariff Floyd, S Matt Elam, LB Jonathan Bostic), do not expect their defense to take a step back in 2013. While the Florida-Florida St. game doesn't have the same feeling it once did, it is working its way back to being one of the two or three most significant rivalries in college football.

#9 Louisville at Cincinnati on December 5:

Louisville should be feeling very good entering this season. Not only are the Cardinals coming off a year in which they won their first BCS Bowl game since the 2006 Orange Bowl, but their team is also in the preseason top 10 for the first time since 2007, they have a Heisman Trophy favorite at quarterback in Terry Bridgewater, their desirable head coach, Charlie Strong, turned down an offer from SEC power Tennessee in the offseason, and they have a very good shot at going undefeated for the first time in school history since 1947 when the team played just 8 games in a season. However, Louisville could be the final victim of the vicious college football system known by most as the BCS. The Cardinals are very unlucky that their best team since the days of Brian Brohm and Michael Bush will be competing in the murky American Athletic Conference, which will do nothing but hinder the team's chances at a birth in the title game. There is a distinct possibility that Louisville could become the 10th team in the BCS era to finish a season undefeated and not win the National Championship, which would put them in the company of the following teams: 1998 Tulane, 1999 Marshall, 2004 Auburn, 2004 Utah, 2006 Boise St., 2008 Utah, 2009 Boise St., 2010 TCU, and 2012 Ohio State. Although Louisville may not square off against a ranked opponent all season long, their biggest test in conference play will likely come from Cincinnati. If the Bearcats want to pull off the upset, they will have to stop a Louisville offense that is as dynamic and explosive as any other offense in the country. Terry Bridgewater, who will likely be the first quarterback selected in next year's draft, is the driving force of the vaunted Cardinals attack. While Bridgewater's arm strength allows him to sling the ball down the field and challenge opposing teams' backfields, he isn't careless with the ball, as evidenced by the fact that he averaged just one pick for every 52.375 pass attempts last year. Consequently, Bridgewater is also very accurate with his throws, despite his propensity to go down field, as his completion percentage of 68.5 was the 6th best in the nation last season. Bridgewater's ability to make nearly any throw on the football field creates extra space in the middle of the field, which the Cardinal receivers love to exploit. Obviously, going undefeated is no where near a guarantee, but with a conference schedule of Temple, Rutgers, Central Florida, South Florida, Connecticut, Houston, Memphis, and Cincinnati, even an undefeated season may not be enough for the Cardinals.

Thursday, August 1, 2013

The Jake Peavy Trade Makes Sense For The Red Sox

"Baseball is a game where you see something new every single day." Most baseball fans have heard this expression a thousand times and while the phase has become somewhat of a cliche, there is no denying the fact that baseball gives its fans some of the most amazing and improbable moments in sports. Events that seem impossible or feats that just sound to absurd to occur can happen at any given time at a ballpark.

You want some examples: a player stealing the same base twice in one inning (Germany Schaefer of the Detroit Tigers in 1908), a triple play without the bat touching the ball (the Seattle Mariners in 2008), two back-to-back home runs by the same two teammates in one inning (Mike Cameron and Bret Boone of the Seattle Mariners in 2002), back-to-back inside the park home runs (Toby Harrah and Bump Wills of the Texas Rangers in 1977), going 0 for 11 in one game (Charlie Pick of the Boston Braves in 1920 in a 26 inning game), get caught stealing four times in one game (Robby Thompson of the San Francisco Giants in 1986), or being a 20-win pitcher on a team that lost more than 100 games (Ned Garver of the St. Louis Browns in 1951 - the Browns won 52 games that year, meaning that Garver won nearly 40 percent of them). And those are just a few of them.

While baseball is certainly a game of inconceivable feats, it is also a sport that is based on patterns, and one of the most common threads amongst playoff teams is a big time move before the trade deadline. In 2011, the St. Louis Cardinals, who eventually went on win the World Series, would not have even made the playoffs if they didn't acquire Rafael Furcal from the Dodgers. Furcal provided defensive stability for a team that committed too many infield errors with Ryan Theroit at shortstop.

Last year, the San Francisco Giants won their second World Series in the last three years largely due to the presence of outfielder Hunter Pence in the lineup, who the Giants acquired in a deadline deal with the Phillies. Not only did Pence help fill the void for the suspended Melky Cabrera, but his bases clearing double in game 7 of the NLCS broke open a 5-run lead against the Cardinals and helped seal the Giants World Series ticket.

This year, the Boston Red Sox, who a year ago had their worst season since they finished 65-89 in 1960, are hoping that their trade deadline deal to acquire former Cy Young winner Jake Peavy will push them over the hump. The trade, which had been discussed for days, was finally able to be completed once the Tigers stepped in and agreed to trade one of their top prospects, Avisail Garcia, to the White Sox. However, the Red Sox had to give up their gifted shortstop Jose Iglesias (to the Tigers) in the process, as you always have to give up a piece in order to improve (unless you're dealing with David Kahn). Overall though, it was a deal the Red Sox had to make and one that will serve them well in the future.

Jake Peavy is by no means the pitcher that he once was with the San Diego Padres. Not only did Peavy benefit from a pitchers ballpark (in Peavy's Cy Young year in 2007, PETCO Park had a park factor of .755, which was by far the most pitcher friendly in the league), but he also had a lot more velocity on his fastball. In 2007, Peavy's average fastball was clocked at 93.9 MPH. However, ever since he underwent surgery in 2010, Peavy's velocity has been greatly diminished, as his average fastball in 2011 with the White Sox was all the way down to 90.4 MPH. In Peavy's prime years with the Padres, like when he had a league best ERA in 2004 (2.27) and 2007 (2.54), the change in speed between his 94-95 MPH fastball and his mid 80's slider made him so effective. However, while a 4-5 MPH difference in fastball velocity may not seem like a lot, it is enough where the difference in speed between the fastball and slider isn't enough to fool hitters anymore. Thus, batters no longer have to worry about getting a fastball blown by them and can sit on the off-speed pitches.

Nonetheless, every MLB pitcher losses velocity as his career goes on (just ask Tim Lincecum and CC Sabathia), and Peavy has begun to figure out how to pitch without blowing the ball past people. While the former Cy Young winner is no longer a number one type pitcher, he is certainly a valuable asset to have in a rotation as a second or third quality pitcher for a potential playoff team like the Red Sox.

Obviously, when a pitcher goes from a last place team to a club that has one of the best records in baseball, it gives them a jolt of energy. However, it is always a concern for teams when a pitcher has been in perennial losing organizations and is not used to the pressure of the postseason or pitching in win or go home games. Despite the fact that in his 12-year career Peavy has pitched in just 2 playoff games, by all accounts, he will have no problem with the tension of a late season race. Peavy is called by some "the bulldog" because of his fearsome and ultra competitive pitching approach, which will fit perfectly in a city like Boston.

Finally, despite some of his struggles the last couple of years, Peavy has looked a lot better on the mound recently, especially since he came off the disabled list. The velocity on his fastball looks improved, as evidenced by his strikeouts per 9 innings rate (8.55) at its the highest its been since 2009. If Peavy can keep his slider down in the zone and limit the number of home runs that opponents hit off him, the Red Sox will have found a starting pitching steal, especially with Clay Buchholz out for an extended period.

Ultimately, transactions in sports are judged not only on how the player you received performs, but on how the player you gave up performs. For example, in 1987 the Detroit Tigers received Doyle Alexander in a trade with the Atlanta Braves for a minor league pitcher that was drafted in the 22nd round, John Smoltz. In the short term, the trade seemed to be a very smart move by Detroit. On the day of the trade (August 12), the Tigers were sitting 1.5 games back of the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East. Following the trade, Detroit went 33-18 and finished the season 2 games ahead of the Blue Jays, in large part because of the impact of Alexander. In 11 starts with Detroit, the right-hander was 9-0 (he won 8 consecutive starts over a month span) and let up 2 or fewer runs in 8 of those starts. Although Alexander was the main reason why the Tigers made the playoffs in 1987, the trade is widely regarded as one of the worst in baseball history because of the career that John Smoltz went on to have in the big leagues. Smoltz is the only pitcher in MLB history to win 200 games and also have 150 career saves and he is one of just 16 pitchers to ever to have 3,000 career strikeouts. And if that wasn't bad enough for the Tigers: Smoltz is considered one of the best postseason pitchers of all-time. His 15 playoffs wins are the second most all-time behind Andy Pettitte and his 199 postseason strikeouts are the most in the history of baseball.

With all that in mind, the type of player that Jose Iglesias turns out to be will greatly effect how people view the Red Sox trade. Iglesias, who is naturally a shortstop but predominately played third base for the Red Sox, is a defensive wizard. With unbelievably smooth hands and some of the quickest reflexes in the game, Iglesias showed his defensive mastery with the Sox right away. Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski said, "This guy [Iglesias] is special, defensively... Somebody that has seen him play just sent me a note and said 'In all my years in the game, the only two defensive shortstops I've seen that are better are Ozzie and Vizquel." While this may seem like a bit of an embellishment from a GM that is happy to have a new infielder, Iglesias is widely regarded around all corners of baseball as already having Hall of Fame defensive skills.

The intriguing part about Iglesias is not that he played outstanding, gold glove caliber defense for the Red Sox (which everybody expected him to do), but that he was actually a productive hitter (which nobody thought he could do after batting .204 to begin the season in AAA). In 63 games with the Red Sox, Iglesias hit .330 and had an on-base percentage of .376. On a team with strikeout victims like Mike Napoli and Jonny Gomes, Iglesias was always making contact, as he struckout on just 12.8 percent of his plate appearances (Iglesias had 30 strikeouts and he came to bat 234 times).

However, it was a very smart move by the Red Sox to sell high on Iglesias because his offensive production has been a bit of an aberration. Iggy has benefited more than any other hitter in the big leagues from fortuitous bounces and infield hits that have just found the right hole. For a batter that hits so many ground balls (55.9 percent of all his hits - which would be the 3rd highest percentage in the AL if he had enough plate appearances to qualify) it is perplexing how Iglesias has reached base on so many grounders. In fact, Iggy's .337 batting average on ground balls is abnormally high for any player. Furthermore, on balls that Iglesias hit in play, his batting average was .376 with the Red Sox, which would be the 4th highest in the entire league if he were qualified for the category. While BABIP can certainly show a players hitting capabilities, it often indicates a hitter's level of fortunate at the plate and shows that Iglesias has been having somewhat of a fluky season.

The Red Sox are also trading away a player in a position of strength within the organization, as Boston is loaded with talent along the left side of the infield. In a league that has a dearth of quality shortstops (when Jhonny Peralta is the best SS in the AL you know things are going poorly), Stephen Drew is a more than reliable middle infielder, as shown by his 4.5 Ultimate Zone Rating (a defensive measure to compare what a player did to what an "average" player would do), which is the 5th best in the AL amongst shortstops. Furthermore, while Will Middlebrooks is currently in AAA, the third baseman was so good in his rookie season that the Sox traded away Kevin Youkilis so that he could play the hot corner every day. In just 75 games last year, Middlebrooks had 15 home runs, 54 RBI's, and a .835 OPS and despite his demotion to Pawtucket, Middlebrooks is still a big part of the Sox future.

But the depth that the Red Sox have at shortstop and third base doesn't even end there. Xander Bogaerts, a 20-year old minor league phenom, is the best prospect in the Red Sox farm system, if not the best prospect in all of baseball (Bogaerts is ranked number 3 overall in Keith Law's top prospects list). Although the Sox still need to figure out whether Bogaerts is going to be a shortstop or a third baseman, one thing is for sure: he is going to be the cornerstone of the Red Sox organization for years to come. Also, while Garin Cecchini is still not ready for the big leagues, he is another third base prospect that is well regarded within the Red Sox organization. Cecchini, who is ranked as the 2nd best prospect in the Sox franchise and the 20th best in all of baseball, is batting .337 this season with both Single-A Salem and Double-A Portland.

Anytime you lose a player with the defensive capabilities of Iglesias, it is a tough pill to swallow. However, with all the talent that the Red Sox have on the left side of the infield and Dustin Pedroia signing an extension through 2021, the Sox were going to have no place for Iglesias. Thus, to get a veteran arm like Peavy, in a rotation that has already lost its best pitcher, the trade was a no-brainer for the Red Sox.