Saturday, November 26, 2011

Jimmer Fredette Will Be Solid In The NBA

The NBA players and owners finally reached a tentative, handshake agreement early Saturday morning to end the 149-day NBA lockout. Although the deal still needs to be ratified by both the players and owners, it appears that the training camps and free agency will begin on December 9th and the 66 game season will begin on Christmas Day. With a tentative deal in place, attention can finally turn from meetings and negations to the court and what is a better way to begin talking about the hardwood than discussing Jimmermania.

Jimmer Fredette had an outstanding four-year collegiate career with the BYU Cougars. Following his junior season, where he scored 22.1 points per game, Fredette led Division I in scoring with 28.5 points per game in his senior year. Since 2002, only Stephen Curry in 2008-2009 averaged more points per game in a season than Jimmer. As a result of his phenomenal year, Fredette won every major National Player of the Year award. With the 10th overall pick in the 2011 NBA draft, the Milwaukee Bucks selected Fredette and then traded him to the Sacramento Kings as apart of a previous draft day trade. Although many people doubt Fredette's capability to play in the NBA, Jimmer will definitely be a solid pro.

Many people compare Jimmer Fredette to J.J. Redick. Redick, who was taken 11th by the Orlando Magic in the 2006 NBA draft, is a prolific shooter like Fredette. However, Jimmer is a much more effective scorer than J.J. and considering that Redick has had a pretty good NBA career so far, there is no reason to think that Jimmer will not be solid in the pros. Redick relays heavily on the three point ball, while Jimmer can score in many different ways. In his senior year at Duke, 51 percent of the shots Redick attempted were threes. In Jimmer's senior season, just 40 percent of the shots he attempted were threes. Also, when Jimmer does shoot the three ball, he can do it in many different ways. Fredette can be a spot up shooter but he also can create space for his own three point shot. Redick is predominately a stand still shooter and can't create his own shot like Fredette has the ability to do. Lastly, Fredette's ability to create off the dribble allows him to get his other teammates involved in the game. In his final three seasons at BYU, Jimmer averaged at least 4 assists in every season. Redick never averaged more than 2.6 assists per game in college.

Most of the doubt surrounding Fredette is not about his offense, but rather about his defense and whether he can defend NBA talent. Many doubters point to the fact that Jimmer didn't play great defense in college but he did average more than 1 steal and 3 rebouns per game in each of his final three years at BYU. It can't be overlooked how much the Cougars relied on Fredette on the offense end of the floor, as he played more than 35 minutes per game for BYU and took over 20 shots per game. Therefore, Jimmer was often exhausted on the defense side of the floor.

There are many people around the NBA who also believe that Fredette will be a very good pro. An Eastern Conference GM said, "You know what the negatives are - defense, he is 6-2 and not all that athletic, all of that stuff. But you have a guy who can put the ball in the basket, and everybody needs someone like that. Even if you use him as a sixth man, a guy like Jason Terry or Ben Gordon, whatever their limitations are as point guards or defensively, you love the scoring they give you."An NBA executive said about Jimmer, "He was Jimmer Fredette. He shot the ball well, he handled the point and he played at different speeds. He needs to get better defensively. He is a tough kid, he is mature, he is very poised."

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

This Weekend In College Football Is Going To Show The Best And The Worst Of The BCS

The Bowl Championship Series, or more commonly known as the BCS, has been the most highly debated system in sports since its inception in 1998. It is nearly impossible to meet a sports fan that feels indifferent about the BCS. Whether people love the BCS or want a college football playoff to determine the National Champion, people have an opinion on the subject. 

The criticism for the BCS has been widespread throughout college football analysts and coaches and even some politicians. 

College football analysts Brent Musburger said, "My dream scenario -- and it's not going to happen -- would be to take eight conference champions, and only conference champions, and play the quarterfinals of a tournament on campuses in mid-December. The four losers would remain bowl-eligible. The four winners would advance to semifinals on New Year's Day with exclusive TV windows. Then, like now, one week later, there would be the national championship game." 

Just this week Stanford coach David Shaw said, "Bottom line is, the BCS is flawed... I don't understand it. Most of the people I talk to don't understand it. Most of the people that are explaining it don't completely understand it... All I've heard all year is the computers don't like Stanford. Well, the computers haven't programmed themselves."

Politicians from Utah have been extremely outspoken against the BCS. In 2009, Utah Attorney General Mark Shurtleff and Utah Senator Orrin Hatch questioned and explored if the BCS violated anti-trust laws. In 2011, Shurtleff announced that he would file an anti-trust lawsuit against the BCS for "serious anti-trust violations" and this lawsuit was supported by 21 high profile economists and anti-trust experts. 

Although President Barack Obama supports a college football playoff, he doesn't believe that the BCS should be up for legal debate like many of the politicians from Utah. Obama said, “If you’ve got a bunch of teams who play throughout the season and many of them have one loss or two losses, there’s no clear, decisive winner. We should be creating a playoff system... I think it is about time that we had playoffs in college football. You know, I am fed up with these computer rankings, and this and that and the other. Get eight teams. The top eight teams right at the end. You've got a playoff. Decide on a national champion." 

Although criticism for the BCS seems to be much more widespread in the public, there is still a lot of support for the system. 

Big Ten commissioner Jim Delaney is one of the most outspoken supporters of the BCS. Delaney said, "There is nothing more powerful than the regular season in college football. All the games that were local are now regional. The regional games are now national. The level of interest of young people, 12-17, was measured recently. I think NASCAR and the NFL gained 1%. College Football gained 9%. I understand the paradigm of the American sports fan is to play it out. I know we're swimming upstream on it. But we've grown the fan base, we've grown the regular season and we've maintained the postseason... The majority of the presidents and faculty and athletic directors and coaches in the Big Ten believe in the Rose Bowl and believe in the bowl system." 

Nebraska Chancellor Harvey Perlman added that no system can be implemented where every conference and every school is "going to have as competitive a chance as others- I mean that's just the reality of the world."

This weekend figures to bring out the best and the worst of the BCS. It is going to show why all of the critics of the BCS are right, while showing at the same time why all of the supporters of the BCS are right. Confusing? Chaotic? Crazy? Welcome to the BCS.

For the critics of the BCS, this weekend is going to once again show how every team in the FBS doesn't have an equal opportunity to reach the National Championship and how non-AQ schools (schools from conference other than the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, or Pac-12) will never have the chance for a national title. It is also going to show how the regular season is extremely important for only some teams and not every team.

The Houston Cougars are currently sitting at 11-0 (7-0 in Conference USA) and have one of the most prolific offenses in recent history. The Cougars offense, lead by Heisman trophy candidate Case Keenum, has been racking up unprecedented numbers. In 11 victories this season, Keenum has thrown for over 300 yards in every game and has thrown for over 400 yards in 5 of those games. Keenum leads the FBS in passing yards, as he has already thrown for over 4,000 yards, and he also leads the FBS in touchdowns with 38. The Cougars are scoring a ridiculous number of points, as they lead the nation in scoring at over 53 points per game. Since 2004, just Western Kentucky and Hawaii in 2007 have scored more points per game than the Cougars. In 7 conference victories, Houston is averaging over 58 points per game. The Cougars lead the FBS in total yards and total yards per game at 618.3. No team since 2004 has averaged more yards per game than the Cougars. Houston leads the FBS in passing yards as well with over 465 per game. Since 2004, just Texas Tech in 2007 has averaged more passing yards per game than the Cougars. Despite the fact that the Cougars are undefeated and are putting up these unprecedented and incredible numbers, they are not going to have a chance to play in the National Championship this year in New Orleans. Currently in the BCS standings, the Cougars are ranked 8th. It would take a loss by all 6 one loss teams to get the Cougars to number 2 in the BCS rankings and in a position to make the title game and the chances of this happening is unbelievable slim. Therefore, Houston's game this weekend against a solid Tulsa team, which hasn't lost a game in Conference USA as well, is not going to have the importance that it should because it doesn't have National Championship implications. Once again, a team that is undefeated will not win a National title, which has happened 6 times since 2004.

Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delaney said that college football is "the most important regular season in all of sport." However, BCS critics say that the regular season is "the most important regular season in all of sports" for the few teams who are competing to get into the BCS National Championship or into a BCS bowl game. For the teams that are not going to land in one of the five BCS games, the regular season losses its importance. There are a number of very good games this week that are not significant because college football lacks a playoff. #25 Texas at Texas A&M, Iowa at #21 Nebraska, and Texas Tech at  #18 Baylor are all great football games. However, since none of these teams have legitimate opportunities to make a BCS bowl game, the games lose their importance.

For the supporters of the BCS, the weekend’s slate of games is going to prove why the BCS causes more excitement in the regular season than any other sport. It is going to show why, like Jim Delaney said, "There is nothing more powerful than the regular season in college football."

If there was an 8 team playoff in college football, the LSU and Arkansas game would lose its appeal. Both teams would make the playoffs and their battle this weekend in Baton Rouge would just be for seeding. However, with the current BCS in place, the excitement surrounding the game is unbelievable because of all of the different possibilities that will result after the conclusion of the game, especially if the Tigers fall to the Razorbacks. With a Razorback victory coupled with an Alabama win over Auburn, there would be a three-way tie atop the SEC west standings with LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas. Therefore, the team with the lowest BCS ranking would be eliminated and then the tie between the two higher ranked BCS teams would be broken by their head-to-head result. If LSU does fall to Arkansas chaos and madness will ensue. Thus, everybody is going to have their eyes glued on the game in Baton Rouge because of its monumental importance in the National Championship race, which is just what the BCS wants. 

Monday, November 14, 2011

Case Keenum And The Houston Offense Are Doing Unprecedented Things

In the last 13 years since 1998, 7 teams from non-AQ schools have appeared in a BCS Bowl game. Utah played in the Fiesta Bowl in 2004 and the Sugar Bowl in 2008 representing the Mountain West conference. TCU has played in two BCS bowl games as well. The Horn Frogs, representing the Mountain West conference as well, played in the Fiesta Bowl in 2009 and the Rose Bowl last year. Boise St. has played in two BCS bowl games representing the WAC. The Broncos played in the Fiesta Bowl in 2006 and the Fiesta Bowl again in 2009. Hawaii also made an appearance in a BCS Bowl game in 2007 when they played in the Sugar Bowl as a representative of the WAC. A conference that was not mentioned above in being represented in a BCS Bowl game was Conference USA. In fact, since 1998, Conference USA has never had a team finish inside of the BCS top 10. However, if Houston can run the table, they will likely represent Conference USA in a BCS bowl game. This feat would be unprecedented for the conference and it would be unprecedented for college football as well because there has never been an offense as explosive as the Cougars' offense.

Lead by Heisman Trophy candidate Case Keenum, the Houston offense is a dominant force. Keenum, who is in his 6th season of eligibility, is going out with a bang and is putting up crazy numbers. In 10 victories this season, Keenum has thrown for over 300 yards in every game and has thrown for over 400 yards in half of those games. He leads the FBS in passing yards and is 49 yards away from reaching 4,000 yards on the season. He is second in the FBS in completion percentage at 74.2, which is very impressive because he has attempted the 11th most passes of any quarterback. Keenum is also second in yards per attempt at over 10 and second in QB rating at just under 200. Lastly, Keenum leads the FBS in touchdowns with 37, which is just under 4 touchdown passes per game. In fact, in a two game span, Keenum threw 15 touchdown passes, as he threw 6 in a 63-28 victory over Marshall and then he had a crazy 9 touchdown performance against Rice in a 73-34 win earlier this season. Keenum has put his name in the record books numerous times thus far this season. He passed former Hawaii quarterback Timmy Chang for the most career yards of total offense in FBS history in Houston's victory over Marshall. The next week against Rice, Keenum passed former Texas Tech quarterback Graham Harrell for the most career touchdown passes in FBS history. To cap an unbelievable three week stretch, Keenum passed Timmy Chang for the most career passing yards in NCAA history in a victory over UAB.

Just looking at the numbers that the Houston offense is putting up is astounding and unthinkable. The Cougars are scoring a ridiculous number of points, as they lead the nation in scoring at over 54 points per game. Since 2004, just Western Kentucky and Hawaii in 2007 have scored more points per game than the Cougars. In 6 conference victories Houston is averaging over 61 points per game and in their last 3 wins over Rice, UAB, and Tulane, they have scored an average of 67 points. Their lowest scoring output in conference play this season was a 49-point performance against UTEP. Yes, as crazy as it sounds, 49 points is their lowest scoring total in 6 conference games. The Cougars lead the FBS in total yards and total yards per game at 628.8. No team since 2004 has averaged more yards per game than the Cougars. Houston leads the FBS in passing yards with over 465 per game as well. Since 2004, just Texas Tech in 2007 has averaged more passing yards per game than the Cougars.

Who Should Be Number 3 In The BCS Standings?

If LSU can remain unbeaten by beating Ole Miss, Arkansas, and then most likely Georgia (who have to beat Kentucky at home to win the SEC East) in the SEC Championship game and Oklahoma St. can win out by beating Iowa St. and then Oklahoma in Bedlam, the National Championship game is simple. It will be #1 and 13-0 LSU against #2 and 12-0 Oklahoma St. in New Orleans. If LSU losses one of their final three games, they will most likely still land in the National Championship since they beat both #3 Alabama and #4 Oregon already this season. However, the craziness and huge debate will begin if Oklahoma St. losses to #5 Oklahoma in Stillwater the final week of the season. Therefore, it begs the question: What team deserves to be ranked 3rd in the BCS standings and jump into the National Championship if Oklahoma St. falls?

Alabama currently sits 3rd in the BCS standings and the Crimson Tide may have the strongest argument to be ranked at that position. In their 9 wins they have outscored their opponents by more than 30 points and their closest victory was a 16-point beating of Penn St. 27-11 on the road. The Tide have knocked off three ranked teams including #6 Arkansas 38-14. The Tide have been the only team all season to hold the Razorbacks to less than 29 points and their tremendous defense is allowing just 7.1 points per game, which is the best in the nation. Bama has held their opponents to single digits in 6 of 9 games as well. Compared to Oregon, Alabama's loss to LSU is much more impressive. The Ducks fell to the Tigers by 13 points, 40 to 27, in a game that wasn't even as close as the score indicates. In fact, Oregon trailed by 20 points for most of the 4th quarter until they scored a late touchdown. However, the Tide played a hard fought, tough game with the Tigers that they barely lost in overtime 9 to 6. The Tigers still have another chance to prove themself in a big game with they take on Auburn in the Iron Bowl at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Oregon benefited greatly from having the national spotlight on them last week, as they made a big jump in the BCS rankings. In a huge primetime game against #4 Stanford and Heisman Trophy front-runner Andrew Luck, the Ducks whipped the floor with the Cardinals in a 53-30 whopping on the road in Paulo Alto. The Ducks offense looked unbelievable quick and devastating, as LaMichael James had 146 yards on 20 carries to go along with his 3 touchdowns on the ground. In total, the Ducks ran for 232 yards on the Stanford defense, which had been so good at stopping the run in previous weeks. They also forced Andrew Luck into two interceptions and forced 5 turnovers overall. The impressive win over the previously undefeated Cardinals moved the Ducks from 7th to 4th in the BCS standings, ahead of Oklahoma. Oregon will once again have a chance to prove its talent in primetime when they take on #18 USC on Saturday. However, their Pac 12 Championship game will be against an unranked and much weaker Pac 12 South opponent. Another cause for concern for Duck fans is that the Crimson Tide played a much closer game with the LSU Tigers than Oregon did.

Oklahoma's loss to Texas Tech at home is going to be a lot to overcome, especially since both Alabama and Oregon loss to #1 LSU. The Red Raiders are currently 2-5 in the Big 12 and are sitting in second to last in the conference. Not only have they been losing games, but they have been getting killed in recent weeks, which makes Oklahoma's loss to them so much worse. The Red Raiders lost to Iowa St. at home, who are 2-4 in conference play, by 34 points, Texas by 32 points, and they lost by 60 points, yes 60 points, to Oklahoma St. this past weekend in Lubbock at home. Despite their horrible loss, of the three teams, the Sooners have by far the best opportunity remaining on their schedule to prove on the national stage that they deserve to be in the National Championship game, as they will take on #2 Oklahoma St. on the road in Stillwater in the final week of the season. If the Sooners can knock off the Cowboys, who have been just destroying teams this season, it may be hard to keep them out of the National Championship.

Sunday, November 13, 2011

Friday, November 11, 2011

The Loss Of Jonathan Papelbon Is Not As Bad As It Seems For The Red Sox

There is no arguing that Jonathan Papelbon has meant a tremendous amount to the Boston Red Sox organization. The list of achievements that Papelbon has racked up with the Sox is plentiful. Pap is the Red Sox career leader in saves with 217, which is 85 more saves than Bob Stanley's previous record of 132 that he set when he was the Red Sox with the Red Sox from 1977 to 1989. Papelbon has saved at least 30 games in his first 6 MLB seasons, which has never been done by another pitcher in major league history. Papelbon was selected to 4 straight all-star games from 2006-2009 as well. Pap's instrumental part in the Red Sox World Series victory in 2007 is definitely his greatest career accomplishment. In 6 playoff series from 2005 to 2008, Papelbon didn't allowed an earned run in 25 innings pitched including in the 2007 playoffs when he pitched 10.2 innings without allowing a run. Therefore, at first glance, Papelbon's departure to the Phillies under a four-year, 50 million-dollar contract, is a devastating one to the Red Sox. However, the Red Sox made a good decision to not sign the longtime Boston closer to a huge contract.

Since his almost perfect first four MLB seasons, there is no doubt that Papelbon has struggled the last two years. To say Papelbon had a bad season in 2010 would probably be an understatement. He blew a career high 8 saves, which was the most blown saves in the AL that year, to go along with his incredibly high 3.90 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Papelbon also had a 5-7 record and his 7 losses were tied for the most losses by a reliever pitcher in the entire AL. In fact, in September when the Red Sox were fighting to get into the playoffs, Papelbon had a 0-1 record and blew 2 saves to go along with his 10.61 ERA in 9 appearances. A large factor in Papelbon's struggles was his lack of control. He had a career high 28 walks, which was a very high number considering that he walked just 8 guys in all of 2008.

Although his 2011 season was an improvement from his 2010-year (how could have it have been worse), Papelbon still didn't look like his old self. Papelbon had just 31 saves, a career low, and ranked outside of the top 11 in saves for the first time in his career. Pap's ERA didn't look to great either, as it was just under 3.00 at 2.94. Once again when the Red Sox needed Papelbon down the stretch when they were fighting for a playoff spot, Papelbon struggled mightily. In his final four appearances, Papelbon blew two saves. This includes when he allowed two runs in the Sox final game of the season against the Orioles in the bottom of the 9th after they were leading 3-2, which denied the Sox an opportunity to play the Rays in a one game playoff.

With these two past seasons in mind, Papelbon was obviously not worth the ridiculously high price that he was asking the Red Sox for. It worse not worth paying Papelbon the largest free-agent contract in terms of total dollar value for a relief pitcher in history and the third highest relief pitcher contract in terms of annually salary per year because of how poorly Papelbon pitched in 2010 and 2011.

The loss of Papelbon is not so severe for the Sox because the Red Sox had a closer-in-waiting in Daniel Bard right behind him. The hard throwing right-hander has looked really good in his short MLB career. In 2010, he pitched 74.2 innings and had a ridiculous ERA of 1.93. Bard struggled towards the end of his 2011 season but that can be credited to the tremendous amount of innings he pitched and the number of appearances he made. Bard was 5th in the AL in games pitched with 70 and that is an incredible amount for a pitcher in his 2nd MLB season. Entering September, before his rough end of the season, Bard had an ERA of 2.03. Bard finished 2011 as the leader in the AL in holds with 34. Many people argue that Bard is just as good, if not better, than Papelbon and Bard will only be getting paid 505,000 dollars in 2012 compared to Papelbon's crazy 12.5 million dollars.