Tuesday, January 7, 2014

Greg Maddux Deserves To Be A Unanimous Hall of Famer

In the history of America's national pastime, no player has ever been unanimously selected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. Just mull over and contemplate the implications of that ridiculous and absurd statement for a brief moment. To this date, there has never been a single player to receive every vote for acceptance into Cooperstown. Names that are in baseball lore and are widely accepted as the greatest to ever play the game have not been universally recognized by the baseball writers for perfect entry into the Hall. The fact that some voters have disregarded and neglected the legacy of those who have been the cornerstone of the game and whose careers exemplify as close to excellence as has been seen in the history of the sport is just plain ignorant and ludicrous. The long list of ballplayers who have been unable to crack the unanimous barrier are not equivocal or puzzling to anybody that has watched or followed baseball even fairly closely, which makes it so baffling how some voters could be so futile as to note vote in obvious Hall of Famers on their first ballot. The sense of bewilderment that fans feel towards some of the recalcitrant voters has always been present and this feeling of disdain has only intensified over the past decade with writers leaving names like Ripken and Gwynn off some of their ballots.

It is almost laughable how a variety of the inductees to the Baseball Hall of Fame were not selected by some of the so-called baseball experts. Who were the 23 voters that did not elect Stan Musial to their ballot in 1969, the second best left-handed hitter to ever play behind Ted Williams? How can anybody truthfully explain how the greatest all-around baseball player who ever lived, Willie Mays, did not even appear on 23 ballots in 1979? Did 30 people in 1983 really not vote for the best defensive player to ever step on a diamond in Brooks Robinson? How could 19 writers in 1994 honestly make a claim that Steve Carlton, the second best left-handed pitcher since the 1970's behind Randy Johnson, was not a sure fire Hall of Famer? I would like to know the 28 voters that decided not to put Rickey Henderson on their ballot in 2009, the greatest lead-off hitter in baseball history? How can 16 writers possibly justify leaving the best catcher to ever play the game, Johnny Bench, off their ballot in 1989? Babe Ruth was even left off 11 ballots in 1936, a guy that was so good that his ghost hung over an entire organization for 86 whole years. The thought that baseball immortals like Cobb, Aaron, Wagner, Yastrzemski, Brett, Schmidt, Seaver, Ryan, Gibson, Mathewson, Feller, and Ryan (the list goes on and on) are not recognized as such by some narcissistic voters is nothing short of preposterous.

Obviously, no player goes through their entire baseball career in a perfect manner, as the game is simply a sport of failure. In fact, Mickey Mantle said in 1970, "During my 18 years I came to bat 10,000 times (9,907 to be exact]. I struck out 1,700 times [1,710 precisely] and walked maybe 1,800 times [1,733 to be accurate]. You figure a ballplayer will average about 500 at-bats a season [Mantle averaged a little more than 550 per year in his career]. That means I played seven years without ever hitting the ball." Even the most periodic hitters in baseball history fail more than they succeed. However, Mantle and so many other ballplayers have played at such an extraordinarily high level that it is impossible for anybody to rationally assert that they should not be put into the Hall right away. Often times, writers refuse to vote for historic players because of their own agendas, their dislike towards a player professionally (Ted Williams didn't get some votes because of some troublesome relationships with the media), or some sort of egotism that no guy should go into Cooperstown with a completely unblemished record. However, with Greg Maddux on the ballot in 2014, undoubtedly one of the best five pitchers to ever take the mound, baseball writers have the chance to make up for their past failures and unanimously vote in a player that is universally accepted as one of the greatest of all-time and a no doubt Hall of Famer.

It needs to be remembered that Greg Maddux pitched in a time period where hitting numbers were at an all-time high. The mad dog, who took the major league mound from 1986 to 2008 with the Cubs (1986-1992, 2004-2006), Braves (1993-2003), Dodgers (2006, 2008), and Padres (2007-2008), spent the entirety of his career in the steroid era and pitched to a generation of supposed stars whose performance was being radically enhanced by synthetic drugs. Even aside from steroids, which is a major reason for the increase in runs in the MLB over the past several years, a surge in analytical analysis, tape on every pitch a pitcher has ever thrown, more restrictions on pitchers innings and pitchers, lowering the pitching mound, livening up the baseballs, and decreasing the size of the strike zone has made it ever so difficult for starting pitchers nowadays to be as dominate as those that preceded them.

Let's take a look at Bob Gibson, another pitcher widely recognize as one of the greatest of all-time, for a brief comparison on just how much baseball has changed over the ages. While Gibson is unquestionably one of the best pitchers to have ever lived, he pitched in an era where low ERA's and little run production were the norm rather than the exception. Gibson's 1968 season is certainly astounding by any measure, no matter what time period. Heck, having a 1.12 ERA over an entire season (the fourth lowest all-time behind Tim Keef's 0.86 ERA in 1890, Dutch Leonard's 0.96 ERA in 1914, and Mordecai Brown's 1.04 ERA in 1906) and pitching in 24 games where the opponent scored one run or fewer would be impressive against a team from Eagle, Alaska, not to say major league ball clubs.

However, it cannot be overlooked that in that same season, six other pitchers (Luis Tiant, Sam McDowell, Dave McNally, Denny McLain, Tommy John, and Bobby Bolin) also had an ERA under two. To put just how high that number is in perspective, in the 45 years since 1968, only 19 times have pitchers ever finished with an ERA under two and just four pitchers did so during Maddux's entire career (Maddux in 1994 and 1995, Kevin Brown in 1996, Pedro Martinez in 1997 and 2000, and Roger Clemens in 1990 and 2005). In fact, the .237 batting average of the American and National League that year was the lowest in the history of the game. Meanwhile, Maddux pitched in a completely different time period, where the National League's batting average of .268 in 1999 was the highest for the league since 1939 when guys like Joe DiMaggio, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams, Mel Ott, and Hank Greenberg were dominating baseball. While in 1968 the NL scored 5,577 runs, in 2000, the National League tallied up an astonishing 12,976 runs, the most ever scored by a league in a single-season in baseball history. You want more examples? In Gibson's historic 1968 season, just 1.623 percentage of at-bats ended in home runs in the NL, the lowest rate since 1946, but in 2000, there were home runs every 3.386 times a hitter came to the plate in the National League, the highest percentage ever. In fact, although Frank Howard was the only guy in 1968 to hit at least 40 home runs, 16 different ballplayer reached the plateau in 2000. In 1968, the major league slugging percentage of .340 was the lowest since 1918 while in 2000 it was .437, the highest in MLB history.

Nonetheless, when looking at Maddux's numbers, they still stack up very favorably with the greatest players who have ever stepped on a mound to pitch in the major leagues. This is why the time period that Maddux pitched in needs to be considered when looking at just how amazing he was in his career. While everybody around him was having difficulties pitching in an age of high run scoring, Maddux was throwing as if it were the 1960's or 1970's, which makes his career that much more impressive. It was as if Maddux was an anachronism, pitching at levels they were only seen in baseball's stone ages before the game was geared towards an increase in run production. Just look in the next few paragraphs at some of the unprecedented numbers that Maddux put up in his 23-year career despite the ridiculous scoring rates in the majors in the 1990's and 2000's.

Greg Maddux was not a pitcher that would overpower hitters with his velocity, as his fastball only topped out at around the 93 mph mark even in his younger years with the Cubs and in the prime of his career with Atlanta. In fact, Maddux routinely threw fastballs in the mid to high 80's for the majority of his illustrious career. Since the mad dog was not anything close to a power pitcher like a Randy Johnson or a Steve Carlton, he did not strikeout too many opposing hitters, as he only had one season with more than 200 k's (1998). To put that in perspective, Nolan Ryan had 15 seasons with at least 200 strikeouts, Tom Seaver had 10 seasons where he fanned more than 200 batters, and Walter Johnson had 7 consecutive seasons with more than 200 k's from 1911 to 1916.

While Maddux did not have a propensity for strikeouts, he was able to put hitters on their bat foot by always thinking a step ahead, as he was the best cat-and-mouse pitcher anybody has ever seen with his diligent pitching approach. Maddux was a baseball genius and one of the most tactically advanced pitchers to ever step on a big league diamond. There has never been another pitcher in baseball history to have the same accuracy and ability to paint all the corners of the plate as Greg Maddux. His incredible control of the baseball was truly unprecedented, as he out-smarted and out-manipulated so many hitters by changing speeds, being deceptive with his pitch selections, and putting the ball in the exact position he wanted it to go. Maddux's true precision on the mound can be seen in the paucity of walks that he allowed in his career. In the last 80 years dating back to 1933, Maddux's career BB/9 rate of 1.8 ranks in the top 10 all-time (minimum 1,500 innings pitched for starters), only behind Hall of Famers like Robin Roberts and Carl Hubbell. His BB% of 4.9 is also amongst the top 10 lowest in the last 70 years since 1943 (minimum 1,500 innings pitched for starters). Although Maddux did pitch to contact, as he rarely walked opposing batters but also got few strikeouts, he was a ground ball pitcher with his slider and change-up and scarcely got exploited for home run balls. In the last 30 years since 1983, Maddux's HR/9 ratio of 0.63 is the fifth best amongst starting pitchers (minimum 1,500 innings pitched for starters). In fact, in a six year stretch from 1992 to 1997, despite pitching nearly 1,425 innings, the mad dog allowed just 53 home runs in 192 starts or roughly just one home run for every three and a half starts. In 1994, for example, Maddux pitched 202 innings and allowed just 4 home runs the entire season, the last pitcher to have at least those numbers was Marino Pieretti, who did so 68 years ago in 1945 with the Washington Senators when he pitched 233.1 innings and allowed just 3 home runs.

There are a lot of pitchers in the Hall of Fame who had very steady, consistent careers in the major leagues for several years. While Bert Blyleven only had one season with at least 20 wins, just one year with a WHIP under 1.060 (outside of the top 500 for a single-season), and never finished in the top two of the Cy Young in a particular season, he did have an ERA of at least 3.03 in 11 different years in the big leagues and had eight seasons with more than 205 strikeouts. Similarly, Don Sutton, only exceeded 20 wins once in his 23 years in baseball and never had a season with a pitching WAR above 6.6, but he did have 20 years with more than 200 innings pitched and 10 seasons with an ERA of at least 3.06. On the other hand, many pitchers in Cooperstown had a few seasons in the big leagues that were exceedingly brilliant but then did little beyond their great few years. Sandy Koufax is the prime example of this. The left-hander had the greatest six-year stretch in baseball history that included four seasons with an ERA of 2.04 or lower, at least 20 complete games in three separate years, a H/9 of at least 6.5 in four seasons, three seasons with more than 300 innings pitched along with more than 300 strikeouts, and four no-hitters (including a perfect game). However, Koufax only had 165 wins and a career WAR of 53.2 (Cy Young's career WAR was 170.3) because he only pitched 12 seasons due to arm injuries.

However, Maddux had the best of both worlds, as he was a very dependable starter that also had a few historic and unparalleled seasons that will go down as some of the greatest of all-time. The mad dog had a very long and consistent 23-year MLB career. He won 355 games in his time in the big leagues (the 8th most ever by a pitcher and the 2nd most since the 1930's, only behind Warren Spahn) and chewed up innings with 5,008.1 over his career (the 13th most all-time and the 6th most since the 1930's). His adjusted pitching wins of 57.75, win probability added of 59.44 (2nd best behind Roger Clemens), and adjusted pitching runs of 531 are all in the top 6 all-time for a career and his WAR of 104.6 is also the 8th best ever and only behind Roger Clemens and Tom Seaver since the 1930's. Maddux had 7 seasons with a WHIP under 1.050, which has only been bettered by Walter Johnson's 10 seasons under the mark (Johnson had an WHIP under 1.000 9 times in fact). Additionally, Maddux had a seven-year stretch from 1992 to 1998 that included some of the greatest single-seasons that baseball has ever seen from a pitcher. In that span, Maddux went 127-53 with a 2.15 ERA, a 190 ERA+, and a 0.968 WHIP. In 1994 and 1995, Maddux's ERA was below 1.632, which only two pitchers have ever done once since 1918 (Bob Gibson and Luis Tiant in 1968). In fact, Sandy Koufax is the only pitcher aside from Maddux to have two seasons with an ERA under 1.90 since 1918. Maddux also had a ERA+ of at least 260 in both of those seasons, which puts both of them in the top 5 all-time and puts him as the only pitcher along with Walter Johnson and Pedro Martinez to have two seasons with an ERA+ of more than 222. In that 1995 season as well, Maddux's WHIP of 0.811 was the 6th best ever in a single season and the 2nd best since 1913 only behind Pedro Martinez. The mad dog's pitching feats over this historic stretch were recognized, as he won four straight Cy Young awards from 1992 to 1995 (Randy Johnson, who won four consecutive Cy Young awards from 1999 to 2002, is the only other pitcher to win more than 2 in a row). While year-after-year Maddux was amongst the steadiest pitchers in the big league, his amazing stretch in the prime of his career sets him apart from almost any other pitcher of the last four decades.

One of the many things that often gets overlooked in the Hall of Fame process is a player's role in the context of a team or in relation to the success or failure of a ball club, particularly his play in the postseason. Obviously, the Hall is an individual accomplishment for a ballplayer's performance on the field (and off it thanks to betting on games [Pete Rose] and steroids [too long of a list to even begin]). However, while it is rather overt, the point of baseball is to in fact win games and championships and not just accumulate and compile impressive numbers in meaningless innings in order for consideration into Cooperstown. Hall of Famer Phil Niekro, for example, pitched in 864 games (the four most by a starting pitcher all-time behind Cy Young, Nolan Ryan, and Walter Johnson) and won 318 games, but he was never apart of a single playoff victory in his entire 24-year career. While it would not be equitable to claim that it was Niekro's doing that his teams were always below par, it does mean something extra when guys like Maddux build a team up to a title contender. Granted, Maddux did have a Atlanta ball club made up of guys like Javy Lopez, Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones, Mark Wohlers, Tom Glavine, and John Smolz, but a Hall of Fame career should at least be somewhat predicated on a player's ability to improve his team in a way that manifests itself into putting the club in position for victories. Thus, while team success should not be used as a deterrent for players who were on poor MLB clubs, the accomplishments of a team should be seen as a added boost for players' Hall of Fame candidacy.

Maddux was a key figure in the Braves' stretch from 1995 to 2003 in which the team won 9 straight NL East crowns (only the Yankees from 1998 to 2003 have ever won more than 5 division championships in a row), which included three trips to the World Series (1995, 1996, and 1999) and a MLB title in 1995. Maddux's triumphs in the postseason should be like a weighted GPA in school, as you should get more Hall of Fame credit for pitching well in big postseason games, which in this rather odd metaphor, would be like honors classes. In the Braves three World Series appearances, Maddux was the prime reason behind the team's success, as he had a 2.27 ERA in the postseason in 95, 96, and 99 and only had 1 start out of 14 where he didn't last at least 7 innings. Maddux proved clutch time and time again in the postseason with Atlanta, highlighted by his start in game 1 of the 1995 World Series against the Indians, where Maddux threw 9 innings and allowed 2 hits, no walks, and no earner runs in just the Braves 7th World Series since the 1900's. While baseball is not an individual based sport like basketball, where the best players in the world automatically put their team in a title position, the fact that Maddux was the catalysts behind a strong ball club certainly enhances his already loaded Hall of Fame resume.

Maddux's exact place in history can and will be debated for the rest of time. In my estimation, the mad dog is the 2nd best pitcher the majors has seen since the 1940's and is in the number 5 spot all-time behind Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Christy Mathewson, and Tom Seaver. However, one thing that can not be contested is that Maddux is more than deserving of a first-ballot nomination in the Hall and as one of the best pitchers in the history of the sport by all accounts, it would take a really foolish and incompetent voter to not select him. If voters are so stuck up in their ways that they refuse to chose a player not because he isn't worthy of selection but because they believe nobody should be a unanimous pick, than some real changes need to be considered for the Hall of Fame voting.

Florida St. - Auburn BCS National Championship Post-Game Podcast

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tw7R3aFIQW0&feature=youtu.be