Saturday, November 30, 2013

Green Bay Packers-Detroit Lions In-Game Analysis

Green Bay Packers (5-5-1) at Detroit Lions (6-5) at 12:30 on FOX

Thanksgiving Day Context:

For the 69th consecutive year, dating all the way back to 1945, the Detroit Lions will be hosting a Thanksgiving day game. The tradition actually began in 1934 as an attempt to create more fan interest in Detroit, as the team was starting its first year in the motor city after moving from Portsmouth (fun fact: in 1932 the Portsmouth Spartans lost in the inaugural NFL Championship Game to the Chicago Bears). When the Lions were scheduled to play the Chicago Bears, a team that had won the NFL Championship in 1932 and 1933, they decided to put the game on Thanksgiving to create added excitement around the big match-up. Nearly 80 years later, the Lions are still hosting Thanksgiving day games in one of football's historic relics despite the fact that they have only made one playoff appearance since 1999 and haven't won a championship since 1957 when they beat the Browns in the title game 59-14 (yes, the Browns and Lions made the championship in the same year). Detroit has a 33-37-2 record on Thanksgiving day (including a 10-year stretch from 1959 to 1969 where they went 2-8-1), but a 11-8-1 record against their 2013 opponent, the Green Bay Packers. In fact, the Lions last Thanksgiving Day win came all the way back in 2003 against the Packers. Detroit and Green Bay actually played each other every year on turkey day from 1951 to 1963, and the NFC North divisional foes will be renewing their Thanksgiving Day rivalry this season.

Game Preview:

In a wide open division with only the Leslie Frazier led Minnesota Vikings out of the playoff race, the Packers-Lions Thanksgiving Day game has major postseason implications. The Packers would likely have been fighting for NFC home field advantage rather than the NFC North if it weren't for Aaron Rodgers breaking his collarbone. The Packers have gone 0-3-1 in their last four games without Rodgers and have slipped from 5-2 to 5-5-1. Seneca Wallace and Scott Tolzien threw 6 interceptions for the Pack in losses to the Bears, Eagles, and Giants and a tie to the lowly Vikings. This week the Packers will be starting Matt Flynn, who entered the game for Green Bay in the third quarter of their tie with Minnesota and was actually fairly effective in leading the Packers back from a 23-7 deficit to get the game to overtime. Although Flynn only joined the Packers on November 12, he did spend 4 years with Green Bay and Mike McCarthy from 2008 and 2011 so he is very familiar with the team's offense. However, the Packers are going to rely heavily on Eddie Lacy once again this weekend, who has had at least 22 carries in 3 of their last 4 games and has produced 2 games of at least 110 yards and 3 touchdowns since Rodgers went out. Meanwhile, the Lions should be able to exploit a Green Bay defense that is ranked 19th in the league in rushing defense and 20th in the league in passing defense. In fact, the Packers have allowed more than 200 yards on the ground in two of their last three games against the Eagles and LeSean McCoy and the Vikings and Adrian Peterson. If Green Bay has to bring safeties into the box in order to stop Detroit's rushing attack of Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, Matt Stafford could have a big day with Calvin Johnson not getting double covered over the top. Finally, the battle in the trenches to watch in this game is the Lions offensive line against the Packers pass rush, as Detroit has allowed a league low 14 sacks all season while the Packers are tied for the league lead with 37 sacks.

First Half Score: Detroit Lions 17 - Green Bay Packers 10

The first half was a period of missed opportunities and self-inflicted wounds for the Detroit Lions. Despite out-gaining the Packers 340 to 43 in total yards, 192 to 24 in passing yards, and 148 to 19 in rushing yards, the Lions only have a touchdown lead at the intermission. Detroit racked up huge chucks of yards in the first half and drove up and down the field in both the first and second quarter. Their offensive line dominated Green Bay's front seven, as Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, who had a combined for 116 first half rushing yards, were not even getting touched until the second line of defense. The Packers were also cut open by a multitude of Detroit slant passes, as Sam Shields was unable to cover Calvin Johnson off the line of scrimmage. The Lions also shut down the Packers defensively in the first half. Knowing that the Packers were going to predominately run the ball on first down, the Lions brought extra guys into the box to shut down Eddie Lacy, who had just 13 yards on 7 carries in the first half. When the Packers did attempt to throw the ball, Matt Flynn was getting pressured by Detroit's defensive front, which had three sacks including two from rookie Ziggy Ansah. With all that being said, the Packers should be thrilled with the halftime score considering the Lions first half domination. In very Detroit-like fashion, the team had an array of miscues to keep the Packers in the game. On the Lions first drive in the red zone, Reggie Bush fumbled on the Green Bay 12 yard line. It was his 3rd lost fumble in the team's last 5 games, which is tied for the most amongst running backs in the NFL. After the Lions kicked a field goal to go up 3-0, Sam Martin, the Lions punter, hit the ensuing kick-off out of bounds, which allowed the Packers to kick a field goal after gaining just 24 yards. Green Bay then added a touchdown after Nick Perry went by left tackle Riley Reiff and forced a Matt Stafford fumble. Stafford also threw an interception for the team's third first half turnover, and David Akers missed a 31 yard field goal at the end of the half. Therefore, due to three turnovers, a missed field goal, a poor kick off, and just 17 points from 5 trips to the red zone, the Lions have just a 7 point halftime lead despite being thoroughly dominate in the first 30 minutes of play.

Final Score: Detroit Lions 40 - Green Bay Packers 10

Often times, when a team thoroughly controls a half of football and does not capitalize by taking a large lead, the opponent feels a second life and comes out rejuvenated after the break knowing that they have been severely outplayed yet are only down by one score. However, this game was more so a case of the Packers continuing their offense ineptitude and the Lions finally putting together some complete drives. The Packers were a complete mess all day on the offense side of the ball. The Lions recorded 7 sacks on Matt Flynn (their most in a game since a week 8 loss to the Denver Broncos in 2011 and their most against the Packers since 1987) despite the fact that the team was averaging under 2 sacks per game coming into the thanksgiving day contest. In fact, the Lions had just 4 sacks in a 4 game stretch from week 5 to week 8 against the Packers, Browns, Bengals, and Cowboys. Nonetheless, in this game, Ndamukong Suh was constantly pushing the Packers interior linemen back into the quarterback, including when he dropped Matt Flynn for a safety in the third quarter to give the Lions a 26-10 lead. The Lions pass rush also forced two Matt Flynn fumbles and caused the quarterback to look very uncomfortable in the pocket. Detroit's defensive front also eliminated the Packers run game, which was ranked 5th in the league coming into the thanksgiving day clash. Green Bay did not have a rushing first down for the first time since a week 14 loss to the Seattle Seahawks in 1990 and their 24 total rushing yards were the fewest for the team since a week 11 loss to the Minnesota Vikings in 2005. The Lions also continued to move the ball up and down the field on offense. Coming into the game, the Lions were ranked 22nd in the NFL in rushing, as they were averaging just over 100 yards per game. However, Detroit's offensive line dominated the Packers defensive front as they continually double teamed B.J. Raji and were able to get a huge push for Reggie Bush and Joique Bell to run through. The Lions were able to rack up 241 yards on the ground against the Pack, their most in a game since a week 13 victory over the Indianapolis Colts in 1997 (Barry Sanders had 216 yards and 2 touchdowns that game in his MVP season). Reggie Bush had 117 yards and Joique Bell was 6 yards away from the Lions having two 100 yard running backs in the same game for the first time since a week one win against the Los Angeles Rams all the way back in 1980 (in that game Dexter Bussey had 111 yards and a touchdown and rookie and #1 overall pick in the 1980 NFL draft Billy Sims from Oklahoma had 153 yards and 3 touchdowns). With the Lions running rampant around the field, Calvin Johnson was often left isolated, which proved to be too much for Sam Shields to handle. While Megatron did not exploit the Packers defense deep down the field, as his longest reception of the game was 20 yards, he was able to continually run slant routes across the middle of the field for 101 yards and a touchdown. It was the 7th time this season Calvin had at least 100 yards in a game and was his 12th touchdown grab of the year. Megatron is now on pace for 1,732 yards and 16 touchdowns, which would be the 5th most receving yards in a single season only behind Clavin's season last year (1,964 yards), Jerry Rice in 1995 (1.848 yards), Isaac Bruce in 1995 (1,781 yards), and Charley Hennigan in 1961 (1,746 yards). Calvin is also well on his way to becoming the first wide out to finish at the top of the league in receiving yards for three consecutive years since Jerry Rice did so with the San Francisco 49ers from 1993 to 1995. The win for the Lions puts them a half game ahead of the Chicgao Bears in the NFC North and in position to win the division for the first time since 1993. Meanwhile, while the Packers are getting Aaron Rodgers back in week 14, with a 5-6-1 record, they will likely have to win out against the Falcons, Cowboys, Steelers, and Bears in order to even have a chance at the postseason.

Friday, November 15, 2013

The Locker Room Culture of Sports: The Fine Line Between Good Natued Fun and Debilitting Bullying

Hazing has been going on in sports since the beginning of time (a little hyperbole) and harmless initiation to sports team can be seen at various tiers of athletics, particularly at the professional level. Over the years, veteran players have had some very absurd, yet playful and kindhearted demands for the rookies on their team. While the players on the Baltimore Orioles made their rookies wear tutus and dresses, the New York Knicks had their first year players wear pink pajamaswith hearts and teddy bears. Meanwhile, the coaches of the Cleveland Cavaliers made their rookies walk around with strollers and baby dolls for an entire day.

The common thread between all of these amusing gestures was that they were very innocent attempts to have some fun with the new guys on the team. However, the recent bullying incident between fellow Miami Dolphin offensive linemen Richie Incognito and teammate Jonathan Martin has added some real questions to the nature of the hazing that goes on in sports, along with the locker room environment that fosters this type of behavior. While hazing in sports is typically good-natured, the line between a harmless prank and bullying has been blurred following this prominent professional football episode. The appalling harassment that transpired between Incognito and Martin not only demonstrates the extent to which hazing is taken, but it is also elucidates the fact that sports’ locker rooms are much different than a normal working or school environment. 

It is a sad reality that the vicious and merciless aggravation of Jonathan Martin by Richie Incognito could actually occur in a sports setting, where everybody is on one team fighting for the same goal: to win games. The details of the harassment are not an exaggeration or an overreaction by those in the media, or by Martin himself. Among other things, Incognito reportedly extorted at least 15,000 dollars from Martin, left some vulgar and racially charged voice mails and texts on his phone, told Martin he would sexually abuse his sister, and threatened to kill Martin and find the other members of his family and harm them. The locker room culture of professional football, and sports in general, is now under a microscope as a result of the outlandish hazing in the Dolphins locker room. 

The majority of the Miami players noted very conspicuous differences between themselves and Martin. The offensive lineman had come from a very educated family – both of his parents went to Harvard – and he likewise attended a very prestigious academic university, Stanford, after turning down a chance to play at Harvard. A multitude of players on the Dolphins associated Martin’s intelligence, his love of poetry, and his quiet demeanor as a lack of toughness. In fact, there are reports circulating that the Dolphin coaches told Incognito to toughen Martin up because of this perceived weakness. In a locker room atmosphere, Martin’s intelligence ostracized him from the rest of his team in that his play on the field was viewed as “soft.” Richie Incognito, on the other hand, was seen as a tough and vicious player, a guy who had been suspended in college at Nebraska, been arrested for assault, later reinstated to the team, and then suspended again after a fight in a bar. Nonetheless, in the Dolphins locker room, Incognito was seen as the guy everybody wanted to play with, as he was the fierce and vicious competitor, the player who would run through a wall for his teammates. 

This explains why in the aftermath of the allegations of bullying in Miami’s locker room, the players on the Dolphins supported Incognito rather than Martin, despite the verbal epitaphs that were thrown Martin’s way. Offensive tackle Tyson Clabo said, "What's perceived is that Richie is this psychopath racist, and the reality is Richie as a pretty good teammate. I don't know why [Martin is] doing this. And the only person who knows why is Jonathan Martin." Defesnive tackle Randy Starks added, "We're trying to clear Richie's name. He's getting a bad rap." In fact, Martin waited a long time to file a grievance against Incognito because he feared severe repercussions from the other players on the Dolphins.

Many players also supported Incognito because they thought Martin broke an unwritten sports code that “what happens in the locker room, stays in the locker room.” Although Incognito bullied Martin, the fact Martin “squealed” on a teammate was seen as worse than the hazing. Antrel Rolle of the New York Giants said about Martin, “At this level, you’re a man… And take awareness of that, man, you’re a grown-a.. man. You need to stand up for yourself.” Rolle’s comments prove that a professional sport locker room is often defined by toughness and aggressiveness, and despite Martin’s emotional distress, the fact that he needed help to deal with Incognito’s bullying was viewed as a man being vulnerable and weak.

The really intriguing part about the Incognito and Martin bullying incident is that this is not an isolated situation that escalated out of hand, rather, hazing has been happening in college and high school sports for decades. This past fall, the entire Cornell lacrosse team was suspended for hazing as the freshmen on the roster were forced to participate in an alcohol-chugging competition.

Good-natured fun will likely not escalate into the type of abuse that occurred between Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin.
Many pro athletes share the sentiment that hazing can unite a team if it includes humor without malicious intent. However, the locker room culture of sports is not an inviting atmosphere to those who appear vulnerable, and it just takes one joke that goes too far to create a situation that can get ugly. Sports’ locker rooms can certainly be a place for bullying, which is why coaches and executives in the front office need to be sensitive and aware of even seemingly innocent hazing.

Saturday, November 9, 2013

2013 MLB Rookie of the Year Awards

The 2013 MLB season was a wild ride that nobody could have foreseen when the first pitch of the year was thrown out in Houston on March 31st (The A's, Rangers, Angels, and Mariners were certainly happy to welcome the Astros to the AL West this season, who were 51-111 in 2013, the fourth most losses by a MLB team since 1952 behind the 1962 New York Mets [120 losses], 2003 Detroit Tigers [119 losses], and the 1952 Pittsburgh Pirates [113 losses]). After finishing 69-93 in 2012 in their worst season since a 62-100 campaign in 1965, the Boston Red Sox not only won the AL East for the first time since 2007, but they also went on to win the World Series in 6 games over the St. Louis Cardinals. The Red Sox 28 game win increase was the franchise's largest win disparity between two seasons since the club went 71-83 in 1945 and then reached the World Series the following year with a 104-50 record (this large win increase had a lot to due with the return of Ted Williams to the Red Sox after a three year absence because of his military service in WWII. Williams had 38 home runs, 123 RBI's, .497 OBP, .667 SLG, 1.164 OPS, 215 OPS+, and won the AL MVP with the Red Sox in the 1946 season.)

On the other side of the spectrum, after winning their second World Series in three years in 2012, the San Francisco Giants finished 10 games under .500 in 2013. San Francisco scored just 629 runs over the course of their entire 162 game season (the 6th fewest runs in the NL), and averaged only 0.32 runs in the third inning of games.

Meanwhile, despite having a 229 million dollar payroll, the Yankees failed to make the playoffs for the first time since 2008 and just the second time since 1994. The Los Angeles Angels, another big spending club, were also not playing in October, mainly due to the fact that in his first 72 games in Anaheim, Josh Hamilton batted .207 and averaged more than a strikeout per game. While teams with large payrolls like the Yankees (228 million), Phillies (159 million), Giants (142 million), Angels (142 million), White Sox (124 million), and Blue Jays (118 million) failed to make the postseason, the Athletics (68 million), Pirates (66 million), and Rays (57 million), all teams within the bottom five of the league in salary, made it to the playoffs. A team starting Derek Norris at catcher, Brandon Moss at first, Eric Sogard at second, Jed Lowrie at short, and Seth Smith at DH won their division and made the playoffs over a team with Mark Trumbo, Howie Kendrick, Mike Trout, Josh Hamilton, and Albert Pujols. Furthermore, despite adding Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, and R.A. Dickey in the off-season, the Blue Jays spent just three days above .500 the entire year, and had a team ERA of 4.25 (Mark Buehrle had a 4.15 ERA, R.A. Dickey had a 4.21 ERA, and Josh Johnson had a 6.20 ERA).

Obviously, predicating the 2013 MLB season would not have been a very easy task for anybody. However, after watching the entire year unfold, it is not as onerous to give out our 2013 MLB Rookie of the Year awards.

Since the Rookie of the Year award began in 1947, those who have received the honor have either continued to improve on their performance from their first year, or have faltered under the pressure that comes with being recognized as one of major league baseball's brightest young stars. Hall of famers like Jackie Robinson (1947), Willie Mays (1951), Frank Robinson (1956), Luis Aparicio (1956), Orlando Cepeda (1958), Willie McCovey (1959), Billy Williams (1961), Tom Seaver (1967), Red Carew (1967), Johnny Bench (1968), Carlton Fisk (1972), Eddie Murray (1977), Andre Dawson (1977), and Cal Ripken Jr. (1982) all won the Rookie of the Year award and then obviously went on to have outstanding MLB careers.

Also, current stars like Derek Jeter (1996), Carlos Beltran (1999), Albert Pujols (2001), Ichiro (2001), Justin Verlander (2006), Hanley Ramirez (2006), Dustin Pedroia (2007), Ryan Bruan (2007), Evan Longoria (2008), Buster Posey (2010), Craig Kimbrel (2011), Bryce Harper (2012), and Mike Trout (2012) all took home the Rookie of the Year award.

However, there are also a long list of names that went into baseball obscurity after they won the honor in their first major league season. Harry Byrd won the AL Rookie of the Year award in 1952 with the Philadelphia Athletics. However, the following year he had the most losses in the MLB with 20, the second worst ERA in the league at 5.51, and the allowed the third most hits in the league with 279. In Byrd's final 5 seasons he had an ERA of 4.53 and a 1.476 WHIP, which took him from once promising Rookie of the Year to MLB afterthought.

In 1965, Jim Lefebvre won the NL Rookie of the Year award with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but in a six year span from 1967 to 1972, he batted a measly .245, had a -7 RAA, and averaged just 6 home runs.

Finally, while Jerome Walton won the NL Rookie of the Year award in 1989 with the Chicago Cubs, the rest of his career was a major disappointment. In his final 9 MLB seasons from 1990 to 1998, he averaged 1 home run, 10 RBI's, and a 0.2 WAR.

AL Rookie of the Year: Tampa Bay Rays OF Wil Myers

The Kansas City Royals have not been in the postseason since they won the World Series in 7 games over the St. Louis Cardinals in 1985 when Brett Saberhagen won the CY Young (20-6, 2.87 ERA, 1.058 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9) and Hall of Famer George Brett had one of his best ever seasons (.335 AVG, 30 HR, 112 RBI, .585 SLG, 1.022 OPS, 179 OPS+, 322 TB, 6.4 BW, 8.1 oWAR). When small market teams struggle over a long period of time and don't have a successful core of players, they typically try to become a consistent contender by building up through the draft and trading away some of their veterans for younger and possibly more valuable future assets in the form of minor league prospects. The Royals have pretty much followed this template over the past decade.

In 2004, Kansas City traded Carlos Beltran, who had won the AL Rookie of the Year with the Royals in 1999 and was a star in the making, in order to avoid losing Beltran and getting nothing in return when he became a free agent. The Royals shipped Beltran to the Astros in a three-team deal where Kansas City received John Buck and two top end prospects (Mike Wood and Mark Teahen, who at the time was considered one of the best young players in all of baseball). Also, in a 8-year span from 2005 to 2012, Kansas City had a top five pick every year except for 2009, and with their high draft slots and multitude of selections, the team was able to begin to build a nucleus around Alex Gordon (2nd overall pick in 2005), Luke Hochevar (1st overall pick in 2006), Mike Moustakas (2nd overall pick in 2007), Greg Holland (10th round pick in 2007), Eric Hosmer (3rd overall pick in 2008), and, of course, Wil Myers (3rd round pick in 2009).

With all that being said, it was confounding when the Royals traded Myers, who had developed into one of the best, if not the best, prospect in baseball, for James Shields and Wade Davis. Obviously, any team that fails to make the playoffs for nearly 30 years should rightfully become a little impatient, and James Shields is a very reliable workhorse who has pitched over 200 innings ever year since 2007 (Justin Verlander and Mark Buehrle are the only other pitches to do so). However, trading Myers seemed to be a little impetuous, as proven by the fact that he should win the 2013 AL Rookie of the Year award.

Myers showed that he could do a little bit of everything in his first MLB season. He hit .293 against left handed pitchers, but also batted .292 versus right hand pitching. Myers had a .351 OBP and a 121 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) at home, but was also very good on the road, as he batted .313 and had a .567 SLG in games away from Tropicana Field. The outfielder had a .390 wOBA (weighted on base average) with the bases empty, but also had a .310 batting average with runners in scoring position with a .925 OPS. Furthermore, while Myers led all AL rookies in wRAA (weighted runs above average) at 12.6 and wRC (weighted runs created) at 53, he did not commit an error in either right or center field for Tampa Bay. Myers was also a catalyst behind Tampa Bay's fourth postseason appearance in the last six years. The Rays began July with a 44-39 record, but in just his second month in the big leagues, Myers batted .352 and had a .963 OPS to propel the Rays to a 20-5 month and a very solid 64-45 record through July.

It was a particularly weak AL rookie class this season, especially coming off a year with Mike Trout, Yoenis Cespedes, and Yu Darvish. Wil Myers was the only AL rookie with at least 45 RBI's (last season Trout, Cespedes, Jesus Montero, and Will Middlebrooks all had more than 50 RBI's) and no AL rookie pitcher had more than 10 wins or a WAR of at least 2 (last year 7 AL rookies had more than 10 wins and at least a WAR of 2.) The top competitors to Myers in this pedestrian AL rookie class are Jose Iglesias and Chris Archer.

Looking to become the first ever Rookie of the Year in a season in which he played for two teams (Red Sox and Tigers), Iglesias showed why many people consider him to be the best defensive shortstop the majors have seen since Omar Vizquel or Ozzie Smith. Iglesias's 2.0 ErrR, which is according to fangraphs, "the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by the number of errors he makes as compared to an average fielder at that position given the same distribution, was the third highest amongst AL shortstops, only behind Yunel Escobar (a ridiculous 5.6 ErrR) and Jhonny Peralta (5.1 ErrR). Furthermore, Iglesias's 0.6 DPR, which is according to fangraphs, "the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, based on the number double plays versus the number forces at second they get, as compared to an average fielder at that position, given the speed and location of the ball and the handedness of the batter," was the fourth best amongst AL shortstops, behind Alexi Ramirez (league-leading 2.4 DPR), Alcides Escobar (0.9 DPR), and J.J. Hardy (0.9 DPR). The surprising thing about Iglesias this year though was the fact that he was such an effective hitter. Iggy batted .303, which was tied with Jhonny Peralta for the highest amongst American League shortstops with at least 350 plate appearances, and had a .349 on-base percentage, which was only behind Jhonny Peralta in OBP amongst AL shortstops with at least 350 plate appearances.

Meanwhile, in a year in which 2012 AL Cy Young winner David Price had only 10 wins, Jeremy Hellickson had a 5.17 ERA (only Edinson Volquez and Joe Saunders had a worse ERA), and Alex Cobb had to miss two months of the season to a head injury, Chris Archer was the Rays most consistent pitcher. In Archer's 23 starts this season, he allowed 2 or less runs in 16 of them, including in July when he went 4-0 with a 0.73 ERA in 5 games. After being called up to the majors on June 1, Archer held opponents to a .223 batting average, which was the 5th best in the AL only behind Yu Darvish (.193), Max Scherzer (.196), Matt Moore (.212), and Hisashi Iwakuma (.218).

Nonetheless, Myers should have no trouble running away with the AL Rookie of the Year award this season. Unlike some of the other top baseball prospects who have come from the minor leagues in the past, Myers looked like the same player in the big leagues as he did with Triple-A Durham. Like any other young ballplayer, the outfielder is still adjusting to the majors and the difficulties of facing top notch pitching every night (as shown by the fact that Myers batted .202 in a month stretch from August 2 to September 2 with 32 strikeouts). However, Myers's free-flowing swing and diverse range of field capabilities will only continue to improve, which means that the Rookie of the Year award is likely not going to be the only honor he receives in his MLB career.

NL Rookie of the Year: Miami Marlins P Jose Fernandez

When the Miami Marins traded Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, John Buck, and Emilio Bonifacio to the Toronto Blue Jays, they not only dumped nearly 170 million dollars in salary (96 million from Reyes's contract, 52 million from Buehrle's deal, 13.75 million from Johnson's contract, 6 million from Buck's deal, and 2.2 million from Bonifacio's contract), but they also lost an assortment of their fairweather fans. On the surface level, the trade was not a terrible one for the Marlins. They got rid of some excessive contracts with underachieving players, specifically Reyes, who hit just .287 in his first year with the Marlins despite having a contract that was paying him more than 17 million per year. Miami was also able to trade Johnson and Buck, who were in the last year of their contracts, before they left the Marlins in free agency. In return, the Marlins were able to stockpile some highly rated prospects and young players.

However, the problem with the move was more so the symbolic message that it sent to Marlins fans. The trade of some of the club's most noticeable players was effectively showing the fans that the team was no longer willing to spend money to make a contending team and thereby lost the interest of a variety of their supporters. By the end of the season, the Marlins lineup was littered with unknown players like Greg Dobbs, Donovan Solano, Ed Lucas, Mike Dunn, Jeff Mathis, and Marcell Ozuna. Nonetheless, rookie pitcher Jose Fernandez, who the Marlins took in the first round of the 2011 draft, was as electrifying as any pitcher in the MLB this year. Although he may need to to lighten up on his very animated pitching antics, Fernandez is a player that Marlins fans should definitely embrace, especially following his scintillating rookie campaign.

Fernandez's first year in the MLB was so good that we should look at some of the greatest rookie pitching seasons in the history of the big leagues for a point of comparison. While you could certainly make an argument for a panoply of names, the best ever rookie pitching season are likely Mark Fidrych's 1976 season with the Detroit Tigers, Fernando Valenzuela's 1981 year with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and Dwight Gooden's 1984 season with the New York Mets.

Fidrych, known as The Bird, will always be remembered for his entertaining but very outlandish and bizarre pitching antics. The Detroit pitcher would talk to the ball before he pitched, fix the mound with his hands, and shake the hands of teammates in the middle of the field as well as fans during the game. However, Fidrych's antics were only so entertaining and compelling to the fans because of how successful he was as a pitcher in his rookie season. The Bird, who won the AL Rookie of the Year and finished second to Jim Palmer in the AL Cy Young in 1976, led the major leagues with a 2.34 ERA, a 159 ERA+ (adjusted ERA for the pitcher's parks and the average ERA over the entire league), a 35 adjusted pitching runs (measures the number of runs a pitcher allows compared to the league average in a neutral park with an equivalent number of innings pitched), and a 4.04 adjusted pitching wins (measures a pitcher's contribution to a team's total wins).

Meanwhile, Fernando Valenzuela's rookie season in 1981, where he won both the Rookie of the Year Award and the Cy Young, has to be considered one of the greatest rookie pitching seasons of all-time. The young pitcher rejuvenated a Dodgers team that had missed the playoffs for two consecutive years and his quirky and awkward looking pitching style and his Latin American roots created a huge fan following around him, known as "Fernandomania." Valenzuela came out of nowhere and began the 1981 season with the craziest 8-game stretch in baseball history. The Mexican pitcher started the year 8-0 with 7 complete games, 5 shutouts, a 0.50 ERA, and a combined 4 runs allowed in 72 innings pitched. At the age of 20, Valenzuela took the baseball world by storm with the greatest start to a season in the history of the game and his 8 shutouts over the course of the season has only been eclipsed once in the last 33 years (John Tudor in 1985 with the St. Louis Cardinals).

Finally, Dwight Gooden is largely remembered for his 1985 season with the Mets, where he went 24-4 and had a 1.53 ERA, becoming the first pitcher in 66 years since 1919 to finish a season with an ERA under 1.60. However, what many people forget is the precursor to Gooden's phenomenal 1985 year, which came in his rookie season, where he was 17-9 with a 2.60 ERA and won the NL Rookie of the Year and finished 2nd in the NL Cy Young to Rick Sutcliffe. That year, Gooden had a league leading 276 strikeouts (more than he had in his historic 1985 season), which is still a record for a rookie pitcher, and was only eclipsed by three pitchers in the previous 13 years dating back to 1972 by Nolan Ryan (5 times), J.R. Richard (twice), and Steve Carlton (3 times). Gooden also became the first pitcher in 100 years to have a K/9 ratio above 11, which Henry Porter, Ed Cushman, and Lady Baldwin of the Milwaukee Brewers and The Only Nolan of the Wilmington Quicksteps all did in 1884.

However, Fernandez's first year in the big leagues deserves to be in the same conversation with Fidrych's, Valenzuela's, and Gooden's incredible rookie seasons. Fernandez was so good this year that if Clayton Kershaw didn't finish the season with a gaudy ERA of 1.83, the lowest since Pedro Martinez had a 1.74 ERA in 2000, he might have joined Valenzuela as the only pitchers to win both the Rookie of the Year and the Cy Young in the same season. The young star was at the top of the big leagues in almost every pitching category. His ERA of 2.19 was the second best in the majors, behind Kershaw, and his adjusted ERA+ of 176 was also the second best in the MLB, once again behind Kershaw. Fernandez became just the third pitcher since 1943 to have an ERA under 2.20 in his rookie season (minimum 160 innings pitched), joining both George Bradley of the 1968 St. Louis Brown Stockings and Jerry Koosman of the 1968 New York Mets, which were both done in the year of the pitcher. Fernandez allowed just 111 hits in 172 innings pitched, which averages out to a very impressive 5.8 H/9 ratio. Hit hits per 9 IP was the second best in a single-season since 1986, only behind Pedro Martinez in 2000, and the 11th best all-time. Fernandez was also 4th in WHIP at 0.979, behind Kershaw, Harvey, and Scherzer, 5th in K/9 at 9.75, behind Darvish, Scherzer, Sanchez, and Burnett, 2nd in adjusted pitching wins at 3.5, behind Kershaw, 4th in adjusted pitching runs at 30, behind Kershaw, Sanchez, and Darvish, and 4th in base-out runs saved at 33.09, behind Kershaw, Darvish, and Iwakuma. As good as the Cuban pitcher was throughout the season, he was at his absolute best in the latter half of the year. In Fernandez's 11 starts after the All-Star break, he was 7-1 with a 1.34 ERA and 88 strikeouts while holding opponents to a .164 batting average. The Marlins starter did not have one start over the second half of the year where he allowed more than 2 runs.

In most seasons, Yasiel Puig would be a sure-fire Rookie of the Year award winner, as no player has had a bigger impact on his team's success in the past several years than Puig. When the young Cuban star made his MLB debut with the Dodgers on June 3rd, Los Angeles was sitting at 23-32, 8.5 games behind the Diamondbacks despite having a payroll of over 215 million dollars. However, Puig's unique energy and dynamic play-making ability rejuvenated the entire Dodgers team, as LA manager Don Mattingly said, "I think the way Yasiel plays is really contagious for guys... His energy [is] infectious." After Puig joined the ball club, the Dodgers went 67-38 and finished the season 92-70, 11 games ahead of any other team in the NL West. Puig had 44 hits in his first month in the big leagues (a Dodger rookie record a month), which was the second most in a player's opening month in the majors, only behind Joe DiMaggio's 48 hits in May of 1936 with the New York Yankees. He also joined Joe DiMaggio as the only player to have at least 4 home runs and 40 hits in his first month in the MLB. Puig, who signed a 7-year, 42 million dollar contract with the Dodgers in 2012, finished the season with a .319 batting average and a 160 OPS+.

Despite the heroics of Yasiel Puig in Los Angeles and his direct impact on the team's first appearance in the postseason since 2009, Jose Fernandez's historic rookie season is deserving of the NL Rookie of the Year award. The Cuban pitcher has elite stuff with a mid-90's fastball that averages about around 95 MPH, but he also has a great secondary pitch with his curveball and can also mix in a change-up and a slider. There has been a lot of talk around baseball that Fernandez could be the next great MLB pitcher. However, the truth of the matter is, Fernandez is already one of the majors best pitchers.

Saturday, November 2, 2013

Fantasy Football Week 9 Preview

There is no bigger fan attraction in American sports, and arguably all of entertainment, than the National Football League. While the Thursday night games on the NFL Network are certainly not the best representation of what pro football has to offer (the lethargic Jets-Patriots week 2 game for example), NFL Sundays have become a larger than life spectacle. Although serious concerns have begun to circulate about the safety of football and the long-term effects of concussions on players, the NFL has never been as popular as it is today. The league is in an age where there are more quality quarterbacks than ever before (outside of Jacksonville, Oakland, and Cleveland), and quarterbacks often have a powerful impact on the following of the sport. Not only is the NFL blessed with two of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time (Peyton Manning and Tom Brady) and a panoply of Super Bowl winners (Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Bress, Joe Flacco, and Ben Roethlisberger), but it is also very fortunate to have its future lined up with a bevy of young quarterback stars (Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck). The NFL is likely in the mist of its best quarterback era since the 1990's, a time when guys like John Elway, Dan Marino, Warren Moon, Steve Young, Jim Kelly, Troy Aikman, and Brett Favre were throwing around the football.

However, there is something that people have become more worried, obsessive, and neurotic about than actual football: fantasy football. The online contest has taken over the lives of countless Americans and become bigger than the game itself. I'm sure that there were an array of Redskins fans who were somewhat satisfied that Aaron Rodgers picked their defense apart for an easy 480 yards and 4 touchdowns in week 2 because he got them more than 30 fantasy points. How many Cardinals fans were faintly pleasured that Jimmy Graham had 134 yards and 2 touchdowns against their team in week 3? I'm assuming that the 10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans in all of Florida were even happy that their catastrophe of a team allowed 296 passing yards and 4 total touchdowns to Nick Foles in week 6. There is even a successful tv show based around a fantasy football league (The League). So, if you're a crazed fantasy football fanatic, here are some things to keep an eye on in week 9 of your season.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense at Buffalo Bills:

When last year's pro bowl rosters were announced, the biggest surprise to most fans wasn't the fact that both Richard Sherman (8 interceptions) and Alfred Morris (Redskins record 1,613 rushing yards) were left off the team, but that the Kansas City Chiefs had 6 pro bowlers despite going 2-14. However, outside of the Chiefs atrocious quarterback play (only John Skelton had a worst QB rating than Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn amongst quarterbacks that threw at least 175 passes), Kansas City actually had a lot of talent, especially on the defense side of the ball. Alex Smith's steadiness behind center (only 4 interceptions in 286 pass attempts) has brought new life to Kansas City this season, and the Chiefs stout defense is proving that it is more than capable of containing any offense in the NFL. With Dontari Poe clogging up the middle of the field, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali have been able to dominate off the edge in the Chiefs 3-4 scheme. The outside linebackers have combined for 20 sacks and 5 forced fumbles and are looking to become the first pair of teammates to each finish in the top 5 in the league in sacks since Adewale Ogunleye and Jason Taylor did so in 2003 with the Miami Dolphins. As we have seen in the past, a dominate pass rush can mask the weaknesses of a defensive secondary because of the constant pressure that a quarterback faces from a dominate defense front. The New York Giants 2007 and 2011 Super Bowl victories were characterized by a strong pass rush (Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora in 2007 and Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck in 2011) despite some definite holes that the team had in the secondary during both championship runs. However, the fact that Kansas City has a solid secondary makes it that much more difficult to avoid the pass rush because opposing quarterbacks have to hold onto the ball to find open receivers. With three of the leagues upper echelon defensive backs (Brandon Flowers, Sean Smith, and Daunta Robinson) and the crafty Eric Berry, the Chiefs are 4th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (205.8) and lead the league in points allowed per game (12.3). In fact, in 8 games, the Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 points. Thus, when an injury plagued
Buffalo Bills team, who will likely be down to their third quarterback within the first 9 weeks of the season (Thad Lewis is listed as doubtful with a rib injury), take on the Chiefs, expect a big fantasy output from Kansas City's defense. The Chiefs, who have already had four fantasy games with at least 20 points, should be salivating knowing that they will likely be facing either Matt Flynn (somehow signed a 20.5 million dollar contract with the Seahawks after literally one good game, and then proceeded to get benched before the season even began) or Jeff Tuel (so bad against the Browns after replacing EJ Manuel that the Bills went to their practice squad QB). Expect more of the same this weekend in Buffalo: another performance by C.J. Spiller that makes you wonder why in the world you picked him in the first round before LeSean McCoy and Matt Forte and another dominating Chiefs defense showing.

Jake Locker vs the St. Louis Rams:

You won't get an argument from me if you think that last year's NFL draft will eventually go down in history as the best quarterback draft (Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brock Osweiler, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Kirk Cousins) since 1983 (John Elway, Todd Blackledge, Jim Kelly, Tony Eason, Ken O'Brien, Dan Marino). Due to the phenomenal quarterback play of some of the 2012 draftees, people have neglected to realize that the 2011 draft class has actually far exceeded expectations. Von Miller, Aldon Smith, and J.J. Watt are likely the three best pass rushers in the entire league and aside from Calvin Johnson, who is legitimately a transformer, A.J. Green and Julio Jones are arguably the most dynamic wide receivers in the NFL. Patrick Peterson is so talented and athletic that the Arizona Cardinals even play him on offense from time to time. However, what has added early credence to the argument that the 2011 draft class could be one of the best of all-time is that Jake Locker has been playing at a very high level this year. Locker is an extremely underrated fantasy option considering his dual threat capabilities in Tennessee's new offense under first year coordinator Dowell Loggains. In 5 starts this season, Locker has only thrown 1 interception and his passer rating of 97.1 is the 8th highest in the entire league. Locker's mobility also causes defenses a lot of trouble because he can escape the pocket and run for first downs. While he is still regaining strength in his right knee and hip, which he injured in week 4 against the Jets, Locker is a quarterback that can certainly run for a touchdown every few weeks. Furthermore, the Rams are a defense that Tennessee can definitely exploit. In the Titans 3 victories against the Steelers, Chargers, and Jets, the team ran for an average of 120 rushing yards. However, in their 4 losses against the Texans, Chiefs, Seahawks, and 49ers, the Titans averaged a measly 90 yards per contest. Locker is not a quarterback who is going to throw the ball 40-45 times in a game and pick apart a defense. However, with a solid run game, he can be very effective, especially with his scrambling ability. The Rams are a defense that ranks 27th in the league in rushing yards allowed (929 in 8 games) and their defense front of Chris Long, Kendall Langford, Michael Brockers, and Robert Quinn is nothing to fear. Tennessee's run game will likely find some success against St. Louis behind their massive offensive line with guys like Andy Levitre and Chance Warmack, which should thereby open up the field for Locker to have a big fantasy day.

Pierre Garcon vs the San Diego Chargers:

Anybody who has watched the Redskins this season could tell you that the team has a panoply of concerns, mainly the fact that their defense has allowed an average of 32.7 points per game through their first 7 contests. However, the Skins offense has people even more worried because the group has looked a shell of the team that finished at the top of the NFL in rushing yards in 2012. It is hard to argue the notion that the Washington Redskins entire offense dynamic changed after RGIII torn his ACL in last year's NFC divisional playoff round loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Despite the fact that Griffin has looked a little better each week on the field, it is evident that he lacks the explosiveness that made him such a weapon last season. The Skins obviously don't want to risk any future injures to Robert Griffin III, which has restricted their play calling to keeping RGIII in the pocket throwing the ball rather than allowing him to make plays down the field with his feet. Griffin has only had 2 games in which he ran the ball for at least 40 yards this season. The unpredictability of Washington's offense made it so difficult for defenses to defend both the run and the pass last season. Without the threat of RGIII keeping the ball on Washington's read option, defenses have been able to key on Alfred Morris, which has only allowed the back, who set the Redskins single-season rushing record last year, to have one game in which he ran for more than 95 yards. Washington has been throwing the ball much more from the pocket this season than last year, which should result in some big games for Pierre Garcon in the near future. Garcon has been very solid so far this year, but he has yet to break out for some bigger games. The wide out has had at least 58 yards in all but one of the Redskins matchups, but he's only been over the 100 yard barrier one time. However, Garcon is destined to have a breakout game this weekend against a sub-par San Diego secondary. Garcon is undoubtedly the Skins best receiving threat, as he has been targeted 78 times in 7 games, which is the 5th most in the NFL only behind A.J. Green, Vincent Jackson, Cecil Shorts, and Calvin Johnson. The balls are going to continue to come Garcon's way as Washington doesn't have any other real receiving options, which means he should have plenty of opportunities to make some plays. Unlike some other receivers, Garcon is also very crafty after he catches the ball, as his 276 yards after catch are the best for any wide receiver in the league. Washington's defense wouldn't be able to stop Jacksonville (that's saying something), so there should be a lot of points scored in the nation's capital this weekend. Meanwhile, Derek Cox or Shareece Wright will likely have the matchup with Garcon, both of whom Garcon should be able to take advantage of in the big week 9 game.

T.Y. Hilton vs the Houston Texans:

The Colts victory over the Denver Broncos could not have been much better from an Indianapolis perspective. The Colts fans got to rightfully celebrate and recognize the accomplishments of their beloved quarterback of 14 years in a very touching pre-game ceremony, and then they got to beat his undefeated team in route to a 5-2 start and a 2 game division lead in the AFC South. However, there was one thing in the game that could change the course of the entire NFL season: the devastating torn ACL suffered by Reggie Wayne. Wayne has been a steady presence in the Colts organization for 13 years and Sunday will mark the first game in an astonishing 15 years that the Colts will be taking the field without Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne in the lineup. Wayne has been by far Andrew Luck's favorite target over the past two seasons, as his 106 catches last year were only eclipsed by his 2010 campaign of 111 catches. In fact, Reggie had 46 more receptions than anybody else on the Colts team last season (Donnie Avery). Without Wayne on the field, the ball is going to have to go to somebody; step in T.Y. Hilton. Much like a DeSean Jackson or Mike Wallace, Hilton is a guy with blazing quickness and can break the lid off any NFL defense. However, Hilton and Luck have rarely been on the same page this season to create some big plays down the field in the passing game. In 5 of the Colts 7 games, Hilton has been held under 46 yards without a reception of more than 19 yards. However, in the other two games, Hilton had 124 yards including a 47 yard catch against the Dolphins and a 140 yard game with two touchdowns including a 73 yard reception versus the Seahawks. With Wayne out of the lineup and the Colts unable to create a productive running game despite the trade with the Browns for Trent Richardson, expect more of the latter than the former from Hilton. Hilton will likely get more opportunities to stretch the field this weekend against the Texans and he will therefore have more chances to make plays than ever before. Under defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, Houston like to play a lot of man-to-man defense with corner backs Kareem Jackson and Johnathan Joseph. For Hilton to break a big play loose, all he needs is a step on a defensive back and he could be gone with his rare speed.