Saturday, November 2, 2013

Fantasy Football Week 9 Preview

There is no bigger fan attraction in American sports, and arguably all of entertainment, than the National Football League. While the Thursday night games on the NFL Network are certainly not the best representation of what pro football has to offer (the lethargic Jets-Patriots week 2 game for example), NFL Sundays have become a larger than life spectacle. Although serious concerns have begun to circulate about the safety of football and the long-term effects of concussions on players, the NFL has never been as popular as it is today. The league is in an age where there are more quality quarterbacks than ever before (outside of Jacksonville, Oakland, and Cleveland), and quarterbacks often have a powerful impact on the following of the sport. Not only is the NFL blessed with two of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time (Peyton Manning and Tom Brady) and a panoply of Super Bowl winners (Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Bress, Joe Flacco, and Ben Roethlisberger), but it is also very fortunate to have its future lined up with a bevy of young quarterback stars (Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck). The NFL is likely in the mist of its best quarterback era since the 1990's, a time when guys like John Elway, Dan Marino, Warren Moon, Steve Young, Jim Kelly, Troy Aikman, and Brett Favre were throwing around the football.

However, there is something that people have become more worried, obsessive, and neurotic about than actual football: fantasy football. The online contest has taken over the lives of countless Americans and become bigger than the game itself. I'm sure that there were an array of Redskins fans who were somewhat satisfied that Aaron Rodgers picked their defense apart for an easy 480 yards and 4 touchdowns in week 2 because he got them more than 30 fantasy points. How many Cardinals fans were faintly pleasured that Jimmy Graham had 134 yards and 2 touchdowns against their team in week 3? I'm assuming that the 10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans in all of Florida were even happy that their catastrophe of a team allowed 296 passing yards and 4 total touchdowns to Nick Foles in week 6. There is even a successful tv show based around a fantasy football league (The League). So, if you're a crazed fantasy football fanatic, here are some things to keep an eye on in week 9 of your season.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense at Buffalo Bills:

When last year's pro bowl rosters were announced, the biggest surprise to most fans wasn't the fact that both Richard Sherman (8 interceptions) and Alfred Morris (Redskins record 1,613 rushing yards) were left off the team, but that the Kansas City Chiefs had 6 pro bowlers despite going 2-14. However, outside of the Chiefs atrocious quarterback play (only John Skelton had a worst QB rating than Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn amongst quarterbacks that threw at least 175 passes), Kansas City actually had a lot of talent, especially on the defense side of the ball. Alex Smith's steadiness behind center (only 4 interceptions in 286 pass attempts) has brought new life to Kansas City this season, and the Chiefs stout defense is proving that it is more than capable of containing any offense in the NFL. With Dontari Poe clogging up the middle of the field, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali have been able to dominate off the edge in the Chiefs 3-4 scheme. The outside linebackers have combined for 20 sacks and 5 forced fumbles and are looking to become the first pair of teammates to each finish in the top 5 in the league in sacks since Adewale Ogunleye and Jason Taylor did so in 2003 with the Miami Dolphins. As we have seen in the past, a dominate pass rush can mask the weaknesses of a defensive secondary because of the constant pressure that a quarterback faces from a dominate defense front. The New York Giants 2007 and 2011 Super Bowl victories were characterized by a strong pass rush (Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora in 2007 and Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck in 2011) despite some definite holes that the team had in the secondary during both championship runs. However, the fact that Kansas City has a solid secondary makes it that much more difficult to avoid the pass rush because opposing quarterbacks have to hold onto the ball to find open receivers. With three of the leagues upper echelon defensive backs (Brandon Flowers, Sean Smith, and Daunta Robinson) and the crafty Eric Berry, the Chiefs are 4th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (205.8) and lead the league in points allowed per game (12.3). In fact, in 8 games, the Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 points. Thus, when an injury plagued
Buffalo Bills team, who will likely be down to their third quarterback within the first 9 weeks of the season (Thad Lewis is listed as doubtful with a rib injury), take on the Chiefs, expect a big fantasy output from Kansas City's defense. The Chiefs, who have already had four fantasy games with at least 20 points, should be salivating knowing that they will likely be facing either Matt Flynn (somehow signed a 20.5 million dollar contract with the Seahawks after literally one good game, and then proceeded to get benched before the season even began) or Jeff Tuel (so bad against the Browns after replacing EJ Manuel that the Bills went to their practice squad QB). Expect more of the same this weekend in Buffalo: another performance by C.J. Spiller that makes you wonder why in the world you picked him in the first round before LeSean McCoy and Matt Forte and another dominating Chiefs defense showing.

Jake Locker vs the St. Louis Rams:

You won't get an argument from me if you think that last year's NFL draft will eventually go down in history as the best quarterback draft (Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brock Osweiler, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Kirk Cousins) since 1983 (John Elway, Todd Blackledge, Jim Kelly, Tony Eason, Ken O'Brien, Dan Marino). Due to the phenomenal quarterback play of some of the 2012 draftees, people have neglected to realize that the 2011 draft class has actually far exceeded expectations. Von Miller, Aldon Smith, and J.J. Watt are likely the three best pass rushers in the entire league and aside from Calvin Johnson, who is legitimately a transformer, A.J. Green and Julio Jones are arguably the most dynamic wide receivers in the NFL. Patrick Peterson is so talented and athletic that the Arizona Cardinals even play him on offense from time to time. However, what has added early credence to the argument that the 2011 draft class could be one of the best of all-time is that Jake Locker has been playing at a very high level this year. Locker is an extremely underrated fantasy option considering his dual threat capabilities in Tennessee's new offense under first year coordinator Dowell Loggains. In 5 starts this season, Locker has only thrown 1 interception and his passer rating of 97.1 is the 8th highest in the entire league. Locker's mobility also causes defenses a lot of trouble because he can escape the pocket and run for first downs. While he is still regaining strength in his right knee and hip, which he injured in week 4 against the Jets, Locker is a quarterback that can certainly run for a touchdown every few weeks. Furthermore, the Rams are a defense that Tennessee can definitely exploit. In the Titans 3 victories against the Steelers, Chargers, and Jets, the team ran for an average of 120 rushing yards. However, in their 4 losses against the Texans, Chiefs, Seahawks, and 49ers, the Titans averaged a measly 90 yards per contest. Locker is not a quarterback who is going to throw the ball 40-45 times in a game and pick apart a defense. However, with a solid run game, he can be very effective, especially with his scrambling ability. The Rams are a defense that ranks 27th in the league in rushing yards allowed (929 in 8 games) and their defense front of Chris Long, Kendall Langford, Michael Brockers, and Robert Quinn is nothing to fear. Tennessee's run game will likely find some success against St. Louis behind their massive offensive line with guys like Andy Levitre and Chance Warmack, which should thereby open up the field for Locker to have a big fantasy day.

Pierre Garcon vs the San Diego Chargers:

Anybody who has watched the Redskins this season could tell you that the team has a panoply of concerns, mainly the fact that their defense has allowed an average of 32.7 points per game through their first 7 contests. However, the Skins offense has people even more worried because the group has looked a shell of the team that finished at the top of the NFL in rushing yards in 2012. It is hard to argue the notion that the Washington Redskins entire offense dynamic changed after RGIII torn his ACL in last year's NFC divisional playoff round loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Despite the fact that Griffin has looked a little better each week on the field, it is evident that he lacks the explosiveness that made him such a weapon last season. The Skins obviously don't want to risk any future injures to Robert Griffin III, which has restricted their play calling to keeping RGIII in the pocket throwing the ball rather than allowing him to make plays down the field with his feet. Griffin has only had 2 games in which he ran the ball for at least 40 yards this season. The unpredictability of Washington's offense made it so difficult for defenses to defend both the run and the pass last season. Without the threat of RGIII keeping the ball on Washington's read option, defenses have been able to key on Alfred Morris, which has only allowed the back, who set the Redskins single-season rushing record last year, to have one game in which he ran for more than 95 yards. Washington has been throwing the ball much more from the pocket this season than last year, which should result in some big games for Pierre Garcon in the near future. Garcon has been very solid so far this year, but he has yet to break out for some bigger games. The wide out has had at least 58 yards in all but one of the Redskins matchups, but he's only been over the 100 yard barrier one time. However, Garcon is destined to have a breakout game this weekend against a sub-par San Diego secondary. Garcon is undoubtedly the Skins best receiving threat, as he has been targeted 78 times in 7 games, which is the 5th most in the NFL only behind A.J. Green, Vincent Jackson, Cecil Shorts, and Calvin Johnson. The balls are going to continue to come Garcon's way as Washington doesn't have any other real receiving options, which means he should have plenty of opportunities to make some plays. Unlike some other receivers, Garcon is also very crafty after he catches the ball, as his 276 yards after catch are the best for any wide receiver in the league. Washington's defense wouldn't be able to stop Jacksonville (that's saying something), so there should be a lot of points scored in the nation's capital this weekend. Meanwhile, Derek Cox or Shareece Wright will likely have the matchup with Garcon, both of whom Garcon should be able to take advantage of in the big week 9 game.

T.Y. Hilton vs the Houston Texans:

The Colts victory over the Denver Broncos could not have been much better from an Indianapolis perspective. The Colts fans got to rightfully celebrate and recognize the accomplishments of their beloved quarterback of 14 years in a very touching pre-game ceremony, and then they got to beat his undefeated team in route to a 5-2 start and a 2 game division lead in the AFC South. However, there was one thing in the game that could change the course of the entire NFL season: the devastating torn ACL suffered by Reggie Wayne. Wayne has been a steady presence in the Colts organization for 13 years and Sunday will mark the first game in an astonishing 15 years that the Colts will be taking the field without Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne in the lineup. Wayne has been by far Andrew Luck's favorite target over the past two seasons, as his 106 catches last year were only eclipsed by his 2010 campaign of 111 catches. In fact, Reggie had 46 more receptions than anybody else on the Colts team last season (Donnie Avery). Without Wayne on the field, the ball is going to have to go to somebody; step in T.Y. Hilton. Much like a DeSean Jackson or Mike Wallace, Hilton is a guy with blazing quickness and can break the lid off any NFL defense. However, Hilton and Luck have rarely been on the same page this season to create some big plays down the field in the passing game. In 5 of the Colts 7 games, Hilton has been held under 46 yards without a reception of more than 19 yards. However, in the other two games, Hilton had 124 yards including a 47 yard catch against the Dolphins and a 140 yard game with two touchdowns including a 73 yard reception versus the Seahawks. With Wayne out of the lineup and the Colts unable to create a productive running game despite the trade with the Browns for Trent Richardson, expect more of the latter than the former from Hilton. Hilton will likely get more opportunities to stretch the field this weekend against the Texans and he will therefore have more chances to make plays than ever before. Under defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, Houston like to play a lot of man-to-man defense with corner backs Kareem Jackson and Johnathan Joseph. For Hilton to break a big play loose, all he needs is a step on a defensive back and he could be gone with his rare speed.

No comments:

Post a Comment