Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Telling It All Podcast - American League East Preview

Topics Include: Red Sox Season Preview (2:00), Yankees Season Preview (13:45).
                           
Topics Include: Orioles Season Preview (1:50), Blue Jays Season Preview (6:30), 
                           Rays Season Preview (9:45)

SoundCloud Podcast Homepage: https://soundcloud.com/ctellallsports

Thursday, April 2, 2015

NBA Regular Season Quick Facts

With the NBA post-season quickly approaching, it is time to look back and reflect on one of the more intriguing regular seasons we have seen from the association over the past decade. While the league's lengthy 82 game season often gets knocked by the public for being too long, forcing too many teams to play on back-to-back nights, or subjecting fans to the abhorrent Philadelphia 76ers tanking (love live Sam Hinkie and his 82 second-round draft picks over the next seven years), this has been by far one of the most captivating NBA seasons in recent memory because of all the different appealing storylines across the country (ok, so maybe only in the Western Conference since the East makes the NFC south look competitive). As much as America loved to hate on the Heat, by year four of the LeBron-DWade-Bosh big three, they no longer wore a villainous cloak to the general public outside of maybe Skip Bayless, and the league lost a lot of its regular season excitement last year since everybody was just waiting on the Heat-Spurs NBA Finals rematch. For as much as the regular season is itself a completely different entity from the post-season and teams certainly need a completely different gear come May and June (just ask the Thibs Bulls), we learned a whole heck of a lot from the NBA slate this season.

We discovered that David Blatt is the biggest copy-cat since Pharell and Robin Thicke. We confirmed that Anthony Bennett may forever be associated with the likes of LaRue Martin, Michael Olowokandi, Kent Benson, Mark Workman, and Bill McGill as some of the worst top overall picks in NBA history (I still can't believe I was a prisoner of the moment and overreacted to him looking in shape in Summer League and said he would improve this year). We learned that Phil Jackson is not a very good General Manager (re-signed Carmelo for a 129 million dollar deal when they have nothing to put around him and will pay him in the 20 million dollar range until he is in his mid-30's; traded Tyson Chandler, who in 2012 was third team All-NBA and won Defensive Player of the Year, and Raymond Felton's gun for the undersized Shane Larkin, Wayne Elligton, Samuel Dalembert, the corpse of Jose Calderon, and no draft picks when the 76ers got a protected first rounder for JaVale McGee and so did the Hawks for Adrian Payne; and then dealt J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert for essentially two trade exceptions and a second round pick despite Shumpert once being on the block for multiple first round picks). We have just begun to understand how dominate of a rim protector Rudy Gobert is for the Utah Jazz, but we may never understand just how Russell Westbrook broke his face and then came back on the court like nothing had happened. We also witnessed Klay Thompson go for 37 points in the third quarter of a game against the Sacramento Kings. Sadly, though we also had to watch the unfortunate death of Jason Smith on behalf of DeAndre "Wilt" Jordan (yes, I am going way too far with that, so maybe DeAndre "Thurmond" Jordan). Here are some crazy, amazing, insane, insert any other synonym here, notes about the 2014-2015 NBA season.

James Harden's Ability To Get To The Free Throw Line:

Anybody who has watched the Houston Rockets extensively this season knows that James Harden is having one of the best seasons in recent NBA history, and certainly in franchise history (up there with Hakeem's MVP season in 1994 or Moses's years in the early 1980's). But Harden's game is not the most aesthetically pleasing thing to watch on the planet, unlike a Chris Paul or Steph Curry. Harden does all of these herky-jerky side-steps and quick shifts of his body to get his defender off balance and free himself for a three pointer or a drive past his man to the rack. He is by far the best in the NBA at stopping and starting on the bounce, as his constant hesitations with the ball make it so difficult to know when he is pulling up or when he is going to go to the hole. Unlike John Wall, who can sometimes get caught playing at one pace, Harden is able to accelerate past defenders because he slows them down with all of his deceptive movements and dribbling. And the strange thing about the star shooting guard is that he is as repetitive as the plots of all the Fast and Furious movies because if you watch him closely, he has much less variety in his offensive game than a player like Westbrook, LeBron, or even DeMar Derozan (Harden's shot chart is entirely threes and layups in very Houston like fashion, as nearly 70 percent of his field goal attempts are at the rim or threes. In comparison, around 53 percent of Westbrook's shots are threes or at the rim). However, his quick body movements allow him to maneuver around defenders and his shiftiness prevents them from knowing which way he is going. Harden also has that incredibly crafty euro-step when he is going to the rim, which allows him at 6-5 to finish so easily at the rim against the trees, as only Westbrook has more transition points than Harden this season.

Now, looking at the numbers, Harden gets to the free throw line an absurd number of times for the Rockets, whose offense has basically become predicated on the charity strike (the Bulls and Clippers are the only other playoff teams that shoot more free throws than Houston, which makes sense since LA complains at the officials the entire game). Harden attempts over 10 free throws per game, which only LeBron James (2008, 2010), Kevin Durant (2010), Dwight Howard (2008-2009, 2011-2012), and the anomaly that is Kevin Martin (2009) have done over the past 8 years in the league. And unlike Dwight, Harden is a terrific free throw shooter at around 87 percent, so when he goes to the line, Houston is getting nearly 2 points per their possessions. Harden's 8.8 free throw makes per game have only been topped by Allen Iverson (2006), Kevin Martin (2009), and Kevin Durant (2010) since 1989.

Look with me, for example, at Harden's stretch since the All-Star break. The beard has only shot over 50 percent from the field once in his last 21 games, and yet, over that time span, he is averaging 28 points per game, which includes a 50 point game against the Nuggets, a 44 point showing versus the Pacers, and a 51 point game versus Sacramento (he missed one game in March against Atlanta due to suspension after kicking LeBron in the groin). The obvious answer to how he is putting up such monster numbers when he is not even shooting well from the floor is his ability to get to the free throw line so often. Since the break, Harden has had 16 games with double-digit free throw attempts, which allows him to score in bunches even when he is struggling to find his outside rhythm. There is not another player in the NBA, aside from maybe Westbrook, that could shoot 12 of 27 from the floor with only 4 three pointers and still score 50 points in a game like Harden did against Denver. In that game, he got to the free throw line 25 times and made 22 of them, making him just the 4th player in NBA history to score 50 points in a game with 12 field goals or less (Adrian Dantley in 1980, Willie Burton in 1994, and Kevin Martin in 2009 the others). It was also the most free throws made in a NBA game since back in December of 2013 when Harden himself accomplished the same feat against Memphis and joined Charles Barkley as the only players in NBA history to score more than 25 points in a game on 2 field goals or less. When people say that getting to the free throw line is not a skill, they are as misconstrued as Brian Shaw was with the Nuggets. While all of Harden's shifting and dancing with his in-between the legs back and forth dribble may seem unnecessary, he knows exactly how to attack a defender and get them to foul him as he is going up. It takes a lot of dexterity and understanding of defender's tendencies to constantly draw fouls game after game, and Harden does it better than anybody since Adrian Dantley. Kevin McHale must be saying, "keep going to that well Larry, I mean James."

I feel like I have to add this really quickly, but Harden also has to be recognized for the fact that his trade essentially changed the entire philosophy of NBA front offices. Daryl Morey stockpiled assets for three years (getting a first rounder for Battier and Ishmael Smith, acquiring a first rounder in the Brooks-Dragic trade, shipping Budinger for a first rounder) and then was lucky enough that the Thunder bailed on Harden way too early and then let him go for so much less than his true value. Now, every team in the NBA looks at trades much less from an individual trade value basis (am I getting the better end of this specific deal), but from the perspective of acquiring enough assets overall to either make a big time move or have enough drafts slots where eventually one of them will fall into the high lottery to get a possible future superstar. So, the next time that Harden is at the line or doing his little cooking and stirring the pot thing, NBA fans can thank him for the league's drive to continually acquire assets, except for Billy King of the Brooklyn Nets of course.

Harden has done all this despite the fact that Dwight Howard has missed 40 games this year, Terrence Jones has been in and out of the lineup (now out for the season with a collapsed lung), Patrick Beverley now out for the season with a wrist injury, and the Rockets even added Josh Smith, which is not really all that of a good thing. There has not been a player more valuable to his team than James Harden this season, who has basically single handedly brought them his team up to second place with the Memphis Grizzlies (a very important spot to possibly avoid the Spurs in the first round if they do not pass the Clippers and end up with the six seed).

Drayman Green Needs To Be Getting Even More Praise:

I know what you are thinking: why would a guy that is already being considered for NBA Most Improved Player (with Jimmy Butler and possibly Donatas Motiejunas) and Defensive Player of the Year (with Anthony Davis, DeAndre Jordan, and maybe Rudy Gobert) need any more national acclaim. The answer to that question is because he is the glue to a Golden State Warriors team that is truly having a historic NBA regular season. If Golden State finishes the season with a 7-1 record, they would join the 1973 Boston Celtics, the 1967 Philadelphia 76ers, the 1997 Chicago Bulls, the 1972 Los Angeles Lakers, and the 1996 Chicago Bulls, as the only teams in NBA history to win at least 68 games in a season. In sports, we often overestimate the difficulty of going from sub-par to good, but we underrate just how hard it is to go from good to historically great. While Steph is obviously the Warriors best player, Klay is the perfect complement that every great star needs, Bogut is the team's interior defender, Iguodala has excelled in his role coming off the bench, and Marreese Speights may have been the best role player acquisition in free agency, Green is the energy guy that holds the entire team together like Happy Hairston on that 72 Lakers team or Paul Silas on the 73 Celtics squad.

There are a wide range of views from fans on how to evaluate the significance of an energy guy or glue guy, but Draymond Green's role as the heart and soul of the Warriors cannot be understated. Steph, Klay, Harrison Barnes, Bogut, and David Lee are all clearly really gifted players, but none of them are going to get in the opponents face or physically go right after each and every guy that attempts to guard them. Green brings a toughness to the Warriors that they just do not have anywhere else on the basketball court. Aside from all the very tangible things he brings to their team, he is a guy that sets the tone for the entire club because of his uncompromising relentlessness. As much as Draymond benefits from open jump shots because of the creativity of Steph and Klay and all the attention paid to their three point shooting (he attempts nearly 6 shots per game without a defender within 4 feet of him), the Splash Brothers equally rely on Green to provide Golden State with an unrelenting toughness that really cannot be measured, even by the greatness of SportVU.

Green's biggest impact on the Warriors has been on the defensive end of the floor, where they lead the league in defensive efficiency and opponent floor percentage. Despite making two Final Fours with Michigan State, and being one of two Spartans along with Greg Kesler to finish their careers with more than 1,500 points and 1,000 rebounds, Green was not taken until the 2nd round of the 2012 NBA draft (30 picks behind Thomas Robinson and 19 picks after Royce White) because he did not have a definite position (the knock on him was he was too slow to be a small forward but not big enough at 6-7 to be a power forward). However, Green's versatility and ability to play so many different positions on the floor has actually allowed him more success than anything with the Warriors. Golden State loves to switch screens under Steve Kerr and Green's combination of quickness and toughness allows him to guard basically any position on the floor at any time. Green ranks 2nd in the league in defensive rating at 96.3 and leads the league in defensive win shares at 4.9 because he can step out and guard wing players but still guard the post and rebound with other big men. In fact, Green's defended field goal percentage, which measures "the field goal percentage of the opponent when the player is defending the shot" according to SportVU, is all the way down at an impressive 28.4% on three point attempts (in comparison, that number is at 34.7% for Blake Griffin). Green provides so much versatility for the Warriors that they have even played him at the five this season along with Curry, Klay, Barnes, and Iggy, which allows them to pull their opponents away from the basket since they can all put up the three ball offensively.

The Atlanta Hawks - Not The Best Five But The Best Five That Fit Together:

Here is an interesting thought experiment: would you rather have a starting five of Chris Paul, JJ Redick, Matt Barnes, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan or a team composed of Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver, DeMarre Carroll, Paul Millsap, and Al Horford. On an individual player basis, the Clippers have a pretty distinct advantage over Atlanta because Chris Paul and Blake Griffin would certainly  be the best two players on the floor at all times if these two teams faced off in a playoff series. However, as a collective unit, the Hawks are far more threatening of an opposition on both ends of the floor than LA. While people are so often concerned with a team's best five, it is much more important to figure out the best five players that can play together and maximizes each of their talents by fitting as a cohesive unit. It seems so simplistic, but the best individual parts do not necessarily make the best whole unit. When Blake Griffin was out in late February and early March, the Clippers went a respectable 9-6 despite a very difficult stretch of games because Blake was no longer clogging up the middle of the lane and taking space away from DeAndre. Theoretically, the Clippers should have went on a skid after losing a top 10 NBA player, but their team dynamics completely shifted based upon the overall unit on the floor. The Atlanta Hawks have established an incredible synergy amongst their team where the whole is truly so much more important than the sum of its part.

After going 38-44 last season and exiting the playoffs after a tough 7 game series against Indiana, the Hawks have pulled off something really special in 2015, especially after you consider that Vegas had their pre-season win total projection at 40.5, the same number as the New York Knicks and Denver Nuggets. I think some people are getting a little carried away with the "the Hawks only have as much talent as the Milwaukee Bucks and just are an incredible example of what teamwork can do to an average group of individuals narrative." Jeff Teague is a top 10 NBA point guard (my order based upon who I would want to have in a 7 game playoff series right now would be Steph Curry, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Kyrie Irving, Tony Parker, Damian Lillard, John Wall, Mike Conley, Kyle Lowry, and Jeff Teague), Dennis Schroder is one of the league's best backup point guards, Kyle Korver is the best shooter in the NBA, Paul Millsap is a top 7 NBA power forward and is only getting paid 9.5 million dollars a year (in comparison, Carlos Boozer is making 16.8 million this year), and people forget just how smart and fundamentally sound Al Horford is as a player because he only played in 29 games last year. With those core group of guys, based on talent alone, Atlanta was always going to be a playoff team. However, their ability to play together has led them all the way up to the top seed in the Eastern Conference and a 56-19 record.

After a middle career swoon, especially in his final year in Utah when C.J. Miles of all people was taking away his minutes, Kyle Korver has had a career resurgence in Atlanta. His ability to space the floor and just be a deadly catch and shoot guy (he hits 2.7 threes per game without taking a dribble on the shot) has allowed the Hawks to exploit any defense that attempts to over-help on Millsap or Horford. Korver also understand his role on the floor (73 percent of his points come from behind the arc), and he is so good at running to the corner on fast-breaks or taking a dribble handoff and immediately shooting with his quick release off the exchange. Also, unlike so many other prolific pure shooters like an Anthony Morrow, Korver is 6-7 and not a complete defensive liability. He also is fortunate enough to have the versatile and long DeMarre Carroll alongside him to guard the opposing team's best perimeter player, so when they play Toronto, for example, Carroll can chase around DeRozan and Korver can guard the less dynamic Terrence Ross. The Hawks terrific ball movement across all of their positions, especially from Horford in the post (the second best passing big in the league aside from Marc Gasol), allows them to the best ensemble since the cast of Pulp Fiction (Travolta, Samuel L. Jackson, Bruce Willis, Uma Thurman, Ving Rhames, Christopher Walken, Tim Roth, Rosanna Arquette, Eric Stoltz).

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

Steph Curry Destroys Chris Paul

This video is presented to you without comment (except for the comment I just made about presenting this to you without a comment).