Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Jim Thome Is A First Ballot Hall Of Famer

After hitting his 599th home run over the porch in left-center field in the 6th inning, Jim Thome wasted little time to join the exclusive club of 600 home run hitters. With a 2-1 count, and Daniel Schlereth on the mound, Thome got a breaking ball on the outside corner and crushed it over the fence in left to become the 8th player in major league history to hit 600 home runs. Thome has now joined the 600 homer club, but that is not the last club he should be joining. He should also be recognized as one of the greatest baseball players of all-time and enter Cooperstown as a first ballot hall of famer.

Only 7 other players aside from Thome have hit at least 600 home runs in their career. From April 27, 1971 until August 9, 2002, a span of over 30 years, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, and Willie Mays stood as the only three players in MLB history to have hit 600 homers. Although Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, and Sammy Sosa joined Aaron, Ruth, and Mays in the 600 home run club, all three have had connections with performance enhancing drugs. Baseball numbers, like 600 home runs, are sacred and the numbers that Bonds, Rodriguez, and Sosa have put up are tainted and inflated. In contrast, Jim Thome has never failed a steroid test and he has, by all indications, never used performance enhancing drugs. Therefore, if you take out guys like Bonds, Rodriguez, and Sosa, Thome is just the 5th player in MLB history to have hit 600 home runs. It should be noted that Ken Griffey also hit 600 homers, so he would be the fourth man to have accomplished the milestone. If you think about all the great power hitters that have played in the big leagues such as Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Mickey Mantle, Jimmie Foxx, and Willie McCovey, none of them hit 600 home runs in their career, and all of them were first ballot hall of famers.

Although Thome's lifetime batting average is just under .280, he had 8 seasons where he batted over .280, including three seasons where he has batted over .300. His career average has dropped a few points as he has gotten older, but when he was in his prime, he hit for power and average. In 2002 he hit 52 home runs and had a batting average of .304. There have been many other first ballot hall of famers with similar averages as Thome. Willie McCovey was a career .270 hitter and never batted over .280 in his final 10 seasons. Johnny Bench had a .267 lifetime batting average, Joe Morgan had a .271 lifetime batting average, and Ernie Banks had a career .274 batting average. 

Thome is not a very fast guy by any stretch of the imagination, but he is a run-scoring-machine. He scored over 100 runs 8 times during his career, including 2002 when he scored over 100 runs on an Indians team that was 74-88 and finished more than 20 games out of first place. Thome's 1,553 runs scored are more than first ballot hall of famers and speedsters Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn, Ozzie Smith, and Jackie Robinson. 

Thome has also been very productive at driving guys in. He has had 9 seasons where he has driven in over 100 RBIs, including a career high of 131 in 2003. Here is an unbelievable stat - if you combine the 100 RBI years of Jackie Robinson, Kirby Puckett, Robin Yount, and Paul Molitor, it equals the amount of 100 RBI years of Jim Thome. His 1,662 RBIs are good for 27th all-time, ahead of guys like George Brett, Mike Schmidt, Al Kaline, Mickey Mantle, Tony Gwynn, and Rod Carew. Thome's on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and on-base plus slugging percentage have always been at the top of the league. His on-base percentage was in the top 5 of his league six times, with his career high at .450. Thome's career on-base percentage of .4033 is better than first ballot hall of famers Carl Yastrzemski, Willie Mays, and Frank Robinson. His ability to be very patient at the plate and take his walks has really helped his on-base percentage. He led the AL in walks three times and is eighth all-time in career walks. He led the AL in slugging in 2002 and his .558 slugging percentage is good for 20th all-time. His on-base plus slugging percentage for his career is .961, which is 17th all-time and better than hall of famers like Ty Cobb, Willie Mays, and Carl Yastrzemski.

Thome's productivity and longevity shows that he deserves to be a first ballot hall of famer. This is Thome's 21st season in the big leagues, and he has had season after season of solid hitting. From 1994 to 2010, that's 17 years, he's had more than 20 home runs every year except for 2005, when he missed over 100 games with an injury. He's had 12 seasons of 30 or more home runs, including one as recently as 2008 with the White Sox. It's pretty impressive that a guy who began his MLB career in 1991 can hit 34 home runs at the age of 37. He's also had six 40 home run seasons, the most recent in 2006, also as a member of the White Sox. To put how good Thome has been for an extended period of time in perspective, in Willie McCovey's final 10 seasons in the big leagues, he never hit more than 30 home runs and had less than 20 homers 6 times. In Brooks Robinson's final 6 seasons, he never hit more than 10 home runs and never scored more than 53 runs. The ability of Thome to be productive and consistent for more than 20 seasons, through the age of 39, is something very special. Only a very few ball players can lay claim to his accomplishments over the course of 20-plus seasons.

Some people argue that Thome shouldn't be a first ballot hall of famer because he never won an MVP. That is ridiculous! Thome has been a consistent MVP candidate although he has never won the award. In 2002 he hit 52 home runs, but finished 7th in the AL MVP voting because his Indians team finished more than 20 games out of first place in the AL Central. The next year he finished in fourth place in the NL MVP voting after he hit 47 home runs and drove in 131 runs in his first year with the Phillies. Thome was unlucky because that same year, Gary Sheffield, Albert Pujols, and Barry Bonds all hit at least 39 home runs. Barry "Steriod" Bonds won the MVP that year. Of the last 9 batters that were first ballot hall of famers, seven of them, Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs, Paul Molitor, Eddie Murray, Ozzie Smith, Dave Winfield, and Kirby Puckett never won an MVP. All-time greats and first ballot hall of famers Al Kaline and Lou Brock never won an MVP during their careers as well. Others argue that Thome made just 5 all-star games in his career. Robin Yount made just three all-star games and was a first ballot hall of famer. Lou Brock, Willie McCovey, and Jackie Robinson made just one more all-star game than Thome and were all first ballot hall of famers. 

To keep in perspective what a prolific home run hitter Jim Thome has been, over 17,000 people have played major league baseball, and only 8 guys have hit 600 homers!

2 comments:

  1. im loving this blog, it is just so addicting!
    gotta love cory tell all sports, its a classic...

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  2. wow great analysis and yea agreed he is a first ballot

    ReplyDelete