Saturday, August 27, 2011

Men's Notable US Open First Round Matches

#32 Ivan Dodig vs Nikolay Davydenko: After being seeded 6th at last year's US Open, Nikolay Davydenko has taken a nose drive. After a horrible 2010 summer, where didn't win more than two matches at any tournament, he fell out of the top 20. By the end of January 2011, he had dropped to 35. Davydenko has not had a great summer and his ranking is now 39. Davydenko never won more than a match at any tournament this summer and didn't win a set off of Mardy Fish, Novak Djokovic, or Fernando Verdasco in three matches. Despite his rough summer and recent play, Davydenko shouldn't be totally dismissed in the early rounds as he has had past success at the US Open. He made the semifinals of the US Open in 2006 and 2007, and has made it past the second round of the tournament every year but once since 2006. While Davydenko has really struggled recently, Ivan Dodig has played very well. Last August, Dodig was ranked in the 140's, and now he is number 33. Dodig's best surface by far is the hard courts, as it is the only surface he has a winning record on. Dodig has a 14-8 record on hard courts this year including a 1-6, 7-6 (7-5), 7-6 (7-5) win over Rafael Nadal in Montreal earlier this month. Dodig looks like the favorite to win the first round match because he has played well recently and Davydenko doesn't look like the same player that was in the top 10 for more than 5 years.
Prediction: 32. Ivan Dodig over Nikolay Davydenko in four sets.

# 27 Marin Cilic vs Ryan Harrison: United States tennis fans are hoping that Ryan Harrison can be the next great American tennis player. With just one American in the top 20, the struggling Andy Roddick, and Sam Querrey still recovering from an arm injury, Harrison has a lot of pressure on him to perform well at the US Open. Last year he beat Ivan Ljubicic in the first round. However, it may be a lot to ask of Harrison to do it again this year because he has a very difficult first round match with the big Croatian, Marin Cilic. After falling outside of the top 30, Cilic had a nice run in Montreal to pick his ranking back up to 27. Cilic beat Andreas Seppi and had a big win over Juan Martin Del Potro in Montreal before losing to world number 1 Novak Djokovic. Harrison will have to return very well because Cilic is in the top 15 in both st and 2nd service points won. Harrison has a good shot of winning if he can play like he did earlier in the summer when he reached the semifinals of both Atlanta and Los Angeles before falling to Mardy Fish both times. Ryan has shown he can beat some of the top players in the world, like when he beat Juan Ignacio Chela in the first round of Cincinnati in straight sets.
Prediction: Marin Cilic over Ryan Harrison in four sets.

#23 Radek Stepanek vs Philipp Kohlschreiber: Radek Stepanek was ranked in the top 20 last May, but he fell to as low as number 70 in April of this year. However, Stepanek made a huge comeback this summer and found himself ranked in the top 30. He made an outstanding run in Washington to win 6 matches and the 500-point tournament. Stepanek knocked out Fernando Verdasco in straight sets in the quarterfinals, and then ended up beating Gael Monfils in the final 6-4, 6-4. A few weeks later, Stepanek beat John Isner and Andrey Golubev enroute to a round of 16 finish in Cincinnati. Stepanek's two big summer tournaments enabled his rank to go from 54 to 23. He has a chance at making a run in the US Open as long as he can get by his tricky first round match against the German Philipp Kohlschreiber. Although Kohlschreiber can play some bad matches like he did when he lost to Sergiy Stakhovsky in straight sets in Montreal, he has shown that he can beat the best in the world. The German beat top 25 players Andy Roddick and Feliciano Lopez in Cincinnati this summer. Stepanek and Kohlschreiber met at the US Open in 2009, and Stepanek won that match in four sets.
Prediction: Radek Stepanek over Philipp Kohlschreiber in four sets.

28. John Isner vs Marcos Baghdatis: Marcos Baghdatis and John Isner have played twice recently, and the they will meet for a third time in three weeks when they play in the first round of the US Open. Their first encounter came in the first round of Montreal when Isner beat Baghdatis in straight sets 6-3, 6-4. Although Isner had just 8 aces, his big serve still caused a lot of problems for Baghdatis. Isner won 84% of his 1st serve points, and didn't allow Baghdatis to have one break point chance during the entire match. The two met again in the Winston-Salem quarterfinals just two weeks later. Although Baghdatis looked much better and returned Isner's big serve much more effectively, he fell in three sets 6-1, 3-6, 4-6. Isner won just 43% of his 2nd serve points and was broken three times by Baghdatis. Marcos won 37% of his return points, which is much better than when he won just 22% of his return points in Montreal. Although Isner has beaten Baghdatis twice this summer, it is extremely difficult to beat an opponent three times in a row, and Marcos has shown that he can return Isner's big serve as he did in Winston-Salem.
Prediction: Marcos Baghdatis over John Isner in five sets.

#16 Mikhail Youzhny vs Ernests Gulbis: In 2007, at the age of 18, Ernests Gulbis made a thrilling run in his first ever US Open. He beat two seeded players to make it to the round of 16. The Latvian teen was labeled the next great up-and-coming tennis star, but all of his immense talent has never led too much success on the tour. However, his recent success is a good sign that he can make a run in this year's US Open. Gulbis won his second ever ATP tour event when he won Los Angeles this summer. He knocked off Juan Martin Del Potro in the quarterfinals 6-2, 6-4 and then came back from a set down to beat Mardy Fish 5-7, 6-4, 6-4. Gulbis will have a lot to deal with in the first round of the US Open though because he will play an experienced Mikhail Youzhny. Youzhny made it to the semifinals of the US Open in 2006, and again last year. Youzhny loves playing in front of the NYC crowd.
Prediction: Mikhail Youzhny over Ernests Gulbis in five sets.

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