Friday, November 11, 2011

The Loss Of Jonathan Papelbon Is Not As Bad As It Seems For The Red Sox

There is no arguing that Jonathan Papelbon has meant a tremendous amount to the Boston Red Sox organization. The list of achievements that Papelbon has racked up with the Sox is plentiful. Pap is the Red Sox career leader in saves with 217, which is 85 more saves than Bob Stanley's previous record of 132 that he set when he was the Red Sox with the Red Sox from 1977 to 1989. Papelbon has saved at least 30 games in his first 6 MLB seasons, which has never been done by another pitcher in major league history. Papelbon was selected to 4 straight all-star games from 2006-2009 as well. Pap's instrumental part in the Red Sox World Series victory in 2007 is definitely his greatest career accomplishment. In 6 playoff series from 2005 to 2008, Papelbon didn't allowed an earned run in 25 innings pitched including in the 2007 playoffs when he pitched 10.2 innings without allowing a run. Therefore, at first glance, Papelbon's departure to the Phillies under a four-year, 50 million-dollar contract, is a devastating one to the Red Sox. However, the Red Sox made a good decision to not sign the longtime Boston closer to a huge contract.

Since his almost perfect first four MLB seasons, there is no doubt that Papelbon has struggled the last two years. To say Papelbon had a bad season in 2010 would probably be an understatement. He blew a career high 8 saves, which was the most blown saves in the AL that year, to go along with his incredibly high 3.90 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Papelbon also had a 5-7 record and his 7 losses were tied for the most losses by a reliever pitcher in the entire AL. In fact, in September when the Red Sox were fighting to get into the playoffs, Papelbon had a 0-1 record and blew 2 saves to go along with his 10.61 ERA in 9 appearances. A large factor in Papelbon's struggles was his lack of control. He had a career high 28 walks, which was a very high number considering that he walked just 8 guys in all of 2008.

Although his 2011 season was an improvement from his 2010-year (how could have it have been worse), Papelbon still didn't look like his old self. Papelbon had just 31 saves, a career low, and ranked outside of the top 11 in saves for the first time in his career. Pap's ERA didn't look to great either, as it was just under 3.00 at 2.94. Once again when the Red Sox needed Papelbon down the stretch when they were fighting for a playoff spot, Papelbon struggled mightily. In his final four appearances, Papelbon blew two saves. This includes when he allowed two runs in the Sox final game of the season against the Orioles in the bottom of the 9th after they were leading 3-2, which denied the Sox an opportunity to play the Rays in a one game playoff.

With these two past seasons in mind, Papelbon was obviously not worth the ridiculously high price that he was asking the Red Sox for. It worse not worth paying Papelbon the largest free-agent contract in terms of total dollar value for a relief pitcher in history and the third highest relief pitcher contract in terms of annually salary per year because of how poorly Papelbon pitched in 2010 and 2011.

The loss of Papelbon is not so severe for the Sox because the Red Sox had a closer-in-waiting in Daniel Bard right behind him. The hard throwing right-hander has looked really good in his short MLB career. In 2010, he pitched 74.2 innings and had a ridiculous ERA of 1.93. Bard struggled towards the end of his 2011 season but that can be credited to the tremendous amount of innings he pitched and the number of appearances he made. Bard was 5th in the AL in games pitched with 70 and that is an incredible amount for a pitcher in his 2nd MLB season. Entering September, before his rough end of the season, Bard had an ERA of 2.03. Bard finished 2011 as the leader in the AL in holds with 34. Many people argue that Bard is just as good, if not better, than Papelbon and Bard will only be getting paid 505,000 dollars in 2012 compared to Papelbon's crazy 12.5 million dollars.

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