Thursday, August 30, 2012

The SEC Will Finally Be Knocked Off Its Championship Pedestal This Year

The SEC has reigned supreme over college football for the past 6 years. As shown by Florida in 2006 and 2008, LSU in 2007, Alabama in 2009 and 2011, and Auburn in 2010, college football has been controlled by the Southeastern Conference, and quite frankly, no other league has been anywhere close.

In the 2006-2007 season for example, Ohio St. came into the National Championship Game with Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith at quarterback and a team that strolled through the Big Ten with an average margin of victory of more than 26 points in conference games. But the title game was never close, as Florida took the victory 41-14 and illustrated the disparity between the SEC and everybody else.

In fact, the SEC was so dominate last year that two teams from the league, LSU and Alabama, met in the National Championship Game, marking the first time since college football went to a national championship setup 20 years ago in 1992 that two teams from the same conference were playing for all the marbles.

With 5 SEC teams (Alabama at #2, LSU at #3, Georgia at #6, South Carolina at #9, and Arkansas at #10) ranked in the top 10 of the preseason AP poll, many people expect the SEC to make it 7 straight National Champions out of the conference. However, this is finally going to be the year that a team outside the Southeastern Conference walks away BCS National Champion.

A major reason that it will be tough for an SEC team to win the national title is because of the unprecedented depth of the conference. With the additions of Missouri to the SEC East and Texas A&M to the SEC West, the league is going to be ruthless week in and week out. Aside from Kentucky in the east and Ole Miss in the west, every team in the conference has a legitimate top 25 caliber squad. With at least 5 national championship contenders in the league, it is going to be very difficult for a team to run the gauntlet in the conference because of the demanding nature of every team's schedule. 

#9 South Carolina for example, has a brutal 5 game stretch during the season where they play #6 Georgia, followed by #3 LSU in the Bayou, then #23 Florida in the Swamp, and finally games against Tennessee and #10 Arkansas back home in Columbia. Yes that's right, the Gamecocks could conceivably play 3 top 10 teams in a 5-week span. Talk about tough sliding. 

Meanwhile, LSU, who lost in the National Championship Game to Alabama last year after beating the Crimson Tide during the regular season, have a daunting conference slate as well. The Tigers have a stretch in October and November where they take on #23 Florida in the Swamp, return home for a game against #9 South Carolina, then travel to College Station to take on Texas A&M and the 12th man, and finally return home to play a title game rematch against #2 Alabama. And oh yeah, they have to finish off the season in Fayetteville against #10 Arkansas. Even an LSU fan, who is used to having a difficult schedule, will realize that it will be very tough to finish the year undefeated.

While the SEC clubs will be knocking each other out of the title race, teams from other leagues will have much easier paths to Miami. For instance, #7 Florida St. has just one top 15 team on their entire schedule (Clemson) and 5 of their 8 conference games are against teams who didn't finish with a winning record last year (Wake Forest, Boston College, Miami, Duke, and Maryland).

Aside from just scheduling, most importantly, there are a lot of quality teams outside of the SEC, specifically Oklahoma and West Virginia from the Big 12, and USC and Oregon from the Pac-12.

There is no way around it, Oklahoma had a lackluster 2011 season. Despite being the preseason number 1, the Sooners finished the year ranked outside the top 15, as they lost to Texas Tech at home for the first time since 1996 and lost to Oklahoma St. by 34 points, the Cowboys biggest beat down of the Sooners in the Bedlam rivalry since 1945.

However, the #4 Sooners are going to have a chip on their shoulders after their massively disappointing season last year, and with a potent offense, they are a very dangerous team. Landry Jones, who will likely end up in the top 5 in college football history in both career yards and touchdowns, is as good as any quarterback in the country and he will lead a Sooners offense as dynamic as any in the nation.

The other Big 12 team that could cause some trouble and is a sleeper pick for the National Championship is #11 West Virginia, as the Mountaineers have an electrifying offensive attack. We all know that Dana Holgorsen loves to put points up on the board and there is little doubt in anybody's mind that the Big 12 newcomers will be able to do just that.

Geno Smith, who set the West Virginia passing yards record last year, has two of the best threats in the country on the outside of the field with Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin. Austin, who was one of just 8 receivers to catch 100 balls last season, is as quick as any receiver in the country and he and Smith form arguably the most lethal duo in all of college football.

Luckily for the Mountaineers, they get #22 Kansas St., #20 TCU, and #4 Oklahoma all at home in Morgantown.

Once Matt Barkley announced his decision to return to Southern Cal for his senior year, the Trojans were going to be one of the most popular picks, if not the most popular pick, to win the National Title. Although #1 USC do not have a lot of depth, as they are still feeling the ill effects of the NCAA sanctions placed on them in 2010, they have a majority of their starters returning on both sides of the ball.

Led by safety T.J. McDonald, the Trojans defense will be better than people expect it to be, but with all the star power on the offense end of the ball, the defense doesn't have to be Alabama-like.

With the addition of Penn St. transfer Silas Redd, USC will have a strong running game to go along with the best receiving core in college football, as Robert Woods and Marquise Lee are big-time playmakers on the outside of the field.

Few schools can lose their starting quarterback (Darron Thomas) as well as their all-time leading rusher (LaMichael James) and return the next season as a top 5 club, but that is exactly the position the #5 Oregon Ducks are in, and they could very well be better than they were last season.

Marcus Mariota, who dazzled for the Ducks at their spring game, won the starting QB job over Bryan Bennett this summer, and the dual threat redshirt freshman is the perfect fit for the Ducks offense, as he can make plays with both his arm and his feet.

Although LaMichael James will no longer be in the backfield for the Ducks, Kenjon Barner is as good as a replacement as you will find in college football. Only three running backs in the FBS, who had as many carries as Barner, had more yards than the Oregon back, showing that with more rushing opportunities, Barner can run for a lot of yards.

Finally, the Ducks have the best home run hitter in all of college football with De'Anthony Thomas. The speedster can make a huge play any time he touches the ball with his electrifying quickness, as he showed in the Rose Bowl with his 91-yard touchdown run as well as his 64-yard touchdown run in his only two carries of the game.

Finally, the two SEC teams who are most likely to win the National Title, #2 Alabama and #3 LSU, have a lot of question marks.

Although Alabama will once again have a very solid defense, there is no way the Crimson Tide will be able to replace 6 defensive players, 3 of which were selected with the first 25 picks in the NFL draft, that easily. Not only are they going to miss key components of their secondary with cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick and safety Mark Barron gone, but the Tide are going to struggle without linebackers Dont'a Hightower and Courtney Upshaw, as the Crimson depended on the ball-hawkers to make so many tackles and plays around the field.

LSU was hit with a serious blow to their championship dreams when Heisman Trophy candidate Tyrann Mathieu was kicked off the team due to his violation of the team's substance abuse policy. Anybody who watched LSU's season last year will tell you that you can't underestimate the impact that Mathieu had on the Tigers run to the BCS title game. Although the Honey Badger was not even the best cover corner on the team last year, no player in the country made more game changing plays then Mathieu. With an offense that is not anywhere near as potent as others in college football, the Honey Badger made play after play either by forcing a turnover or returning a punt on special teams to keep LSU in games, and his absence will definitely be felt.

A lot of questions remain about this upcoming college football year, and I am as pumped as anybody for the season to begin. Although we will have to wait until January to see who is holding the Crystal Ball as the BCS National Champion, I think its fairly safe to assume one thing about the title winner; It will not be a team out of the Big East.

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