The Red Sox Are Going To Win The AL East

The American League East has been the toughest division in baseball for years. Along with the always solid Yankees and Red Sox, the emergence of the Tampa Bay Rays has made the AL East unbelievably difficult.

Since the AL East was established in 1969, the winner of the division has had at least 100 wins 14 times. In comparison, since 1969, the winner of the AL West has had triple digit victories just 6 times.

Since the MLB added a Wild Card spot to each league during the 1995 playoffs, the Wild Card team has come out of the American League East 13 times. The American League Central has only had two teams in the postseason once, which was in 2006 when the Tigers won the Wild Card and joined the Minnesota Twins in the playoffs. The American League West has had a Wild Card team in the postseason just 3 times. In fact, in the last 9 years since 2003, the winner of the AL Wild Card has been a team from the AL East every year but once.

In the last 41 postseasons since 1969, the representative of the American League in the World Series has been from the AL East 24 times compared to just 12 times from the AL West. In fact, there was a 12 year stretch from 1975 to 1986 that the AL East had a team in the World Series every year but twice (1980, 1985).

The dominance of the Yankees and Red Sox has left the Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, and Tampa Bay Rays searching for solutions.

The Orioles haven't won the division since 1997, which was also the last time they were in the postseason.

The Blue Jays haven't been atop the AL East at the end of the year since 1993. The Jays are still looking for their first playoff appearance since they repeated as World Series champs in 1993 on Joe Carter's walk-off home run in game 6 over the Philadelphia Phillies.

Although the Rays have won the AL East two out of the last four years, they didn't make the playoffs in their first 10 years in existence from 1998 to 2007.

With the MLB adding an extra Wild Card team this year to both leagues, it isn't inconceivable that the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays could all get into the postseason.

The Boston Red Sox are not going to have to rely on that one game Wild Card playoff though because they are going to win their first division title since 2007.

The Red Sox 2011 season could not have ended any worse. On September 3rd, they were leading the Wild Card race by 9 games over the Tampa Bay Rays, but then the unthinkable happened to the Sox. The same franchise that had an 86 year World Series drought from 1918 to 2004 had the greatest collapse in MLB history.

Due to numerous pitching injuries to Red Sox starters including Clay Buchholz with his lower back problems and Daisuke Matsuzaka with his elbow issue, the Sox were forced to pitch Kyle Weiland and Tim Wakefield down the stretch as well as John Lakey, who was already severely struggling. Without a solid staff, the Red Sox struggled in the final month, as they had a horrific 7-20 September record and lost the AL Wild Card spot to the surging Tampa Bay Rays.

Not only did the Red Sox have to deal with an off-season full of scrutiny for their play on the field, but they also had to handle controversy that began to surround the clubhouse.

Reports began to surface that people in the Red Sox organization believed that Sox's manager Terry Francona seemed distracted throughout the season due to marital problems he was having and also due to his use of pain medication.

Not only did Tito come under attack from the media, but the Red Sox pitching staff also took a tremendous amount of criticism for their behavior in the clubhouse. On days that they weren't pitching, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and John Lackey would eat fried chicken, drink beer, and play video games, while the rest of the Sox's players were fighting to try and keep the team from a monumental collapse.

With that all being said, the Red Sox are going into a new season and they will finally be able to put their 2011 debacle behind them. New Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine is trying to establish a different culture in Beantown and it is important to remember that aside from their slow start in April and their poor finish in September, the Red Sox where the best team in baseball for 4 months from May to August. Although they had an incredible 72-37 record in that four month span, that was all forgotten because of their September collapse.

Although most people have jumped off the Red Sox bandwagon and like the Yankees or the Rays, with their young pitching staff led by David Price and Matt Moore, to win the division, the Sox are going to have a fantastic year.

Adrian Gonzalez struggled last year with ongoing pain in his neck, especially in the month of July when he was forced to miss two games with stiffness. Although he tried to play through the pain, he hit just two home runs in July and lacked some power due to the injury. He also suffered from fatigue in his shoulder towards the end of the year and this caused his power numbers to go down, as he had 11 home runs in the team's final 95 games from June 26th to the end of the year, while he had 16 home runs in the team's first 67 games.

With all that being said, Gonzalez was still terrific for the Sox and he was better than any fan could have expected. He was 2nd in the MLB with a .338 batting average, while he held the MLB lead in hits with Michael Young with 213. A-Gon was also third in the AL with 117 runs batted in and 2nd in the AL with a .410 on-base percentage. Gonzalez is a hitting machine and he can hit the ball to all the different parts of the field. When his power numbers return this season because he is finally healthy, Gonzalez is going to be an impossible guy to pitch to in the middle of the Sox's lineup.

Many people forget that last year Kevin Youkilis, who is a top five MLB third basemen, played just 120 games with the Sox's, as he missed 34 games in August and September. Youk, who is a nightmare for every pitcher in the league because of his ability to work the count and force the pitcher to throw a lot of pitches, was severely missed by the Sox.

However, Youkilis is healthy again and you can expect him to return to All-Star form with his ability to constantly be on base. He is also going to drive in a lot of runs, as he is likely going to bat in the five hole behind the dangerous A-Gon and Ortiz.

Finally, we all know about the struggles of Carl Crawford last year after he signed that lucrative 7 year, 142 million dollar contract last off-season.

Sox fans should be confident though that Crawford is going to improve on his 2011 season (how can he not because it was pretty bad). Crawford seemed frazzled last year and not confident on the field. Tito may have had something to do with that because he never showed any faith in Carl and was constantly changing his spot in the lineup. Crawford should benefit from a fresh start to the season and a new manager.

In terms of pitching, Jon Lester is in the prime of his career in his 7th year in the league (all with the Red Sox). Lester has had at least 15 wins every year since 2008 and many people feel he could make a run at the AL Cy Young this year.

Although Josh Beckett is getting up there in years as he is entering his 12th year in the league at the age of 31, he is coming off his best season as a Red Sox. Although Beckett had a record of just 13-7 last year, his ERA of 2.89 was the 5th best in the AL, while his 1.03 WHIP was the 4th best among AL pitchers. His ERA and WHIP were the lowest of his career.

Finally, Clay Buchholz is destined to have the best year of his career. The young star, who has a scary amount of talent with his fastball that is typically in the mid 90's and his great changeup and curveball, needs to stay healthy and off the DL. If Buchholz can remain on the mound and not in the training room, he is will likely repeat his 2010 season when he was 17-7 and had a 2.33 ERA, which was top 3 in the league that year.

The biggest concern for the Red Sox is their early season injury problems. Obviously, in such a long 162 game season, you are going to have to go through a lot of stretches without a key guy. It is almost impossible to go through an entire season without one of your main contributors going down to an injury. However, the Sox are without multiple important pieces to begin the season.

The Red Sox knew about two of their major injury concerns before the spring even began.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, who had a 5.30 ERA in 7 starts last year before being shelved for the rest of the season because of a right elbow injury, is finally getting back to playing form from his Tommy John Surgery that he received last year. Although Daisuke has severely struggled in his last three seasons since he finished 4th in the AL Cy Young voting in 2008 with a 18-3 record, he is recovering very nicely from the surgery. Matsuzaka should return by late May or early June.

However, the lose of Daisuke for a short period at the beginning of the season may be a blessing in disguise because it will give Bobby V time to see if Felix Doubront or Daniel Bard have what it takes to be a full time starter.

Doubront, who is just 24 years old and only in his third season in the league, was very impressive this spring for the Red Sox and won the fourth starting spot. Although the Venezuelan has very little experience in the big leagues as he spent significant time last year in the minors with Portland and Pawtucket and made just 11 appearances in relief for the Red Sox, he has looked very impressive so far. Doubront will be very important for the Sox if he pitches well because he is the only potential lefty starter for Boston aside from Jon Lester until Andrew Miller can return from his hamstring injury.

If Doubront was the surprise of the Red Sox's spring training, Daniel Bard may have been the disappointment. Bard, who was the Red Sox very effective setup man last year as he set a Red Sox record with 21 scoreless appearance, tried to make the switch to the starting rotation this spring. However, he struggled in his spring starts as he walked a lot of batters and it still remains a question if Bard can go deep into a ball game. That being said, Bard still has a fastball that comes in at the high 90's and a devastating slider if he is throwing it with some good bite.

Carl Crawford, who had a tumultuous first year with the Sox, received off-season surgery on his left wrist. Although the Red Sox were hopeful that Carl could return by Opening Day, his rehab is taking a little longer than first expected. Crawford is expected to miss the first few weeks of the season and then return as the normal everyday left fielder for the Sox.

Ryan Sweeney, who Boston alsoacquired in the Andrew Bailey trade from the A's, will likely now play in the outfield along with off-season free agent acquisition Cody Ross and Jacoby Ellsbury until Crawford can come back.

In the off-season, the Bo Sox career leader in saves, Jonathan Papelbon, left Boston to join the Philadelphia Phillies on a four-year, 50 million dollar contract.

To replace the void of Pap, the Sox traded, among other players, their young and rising outfielder Josh Reddick to obtain the Oakland Athletics closer Andrew Bailey. Bailey, the 2009 AL Rookie of the Year, has had at least 24 saves in all three of his seasons in the big leagues and has never had more than 4 blown saves in a season, as he had just 2 all of last year.

Bailey, who was expected to fill Papelbon's role very nicely, while doing so under a contract where the Sox aren't paying him a ridiculous amount of money like they would have had to do if they wanted to keep J.P., experienced a setback before the season even began. Bailey injured his right thumb during the spring and the injury required surgery. The Sox closer is now out until at least after the All-Star game.

The loss of Bailey could be a devastating one for the Sox. With Bailey down, Bobby V has named Alfredo Aceves the Sox closer in the interim with Mark Melancon also finishing out games when the Sox need him to do so. Although Aceves was the Sox workhorse from the bullpen last year, as he pitched 114 innings including his 4 spot starts, he has very little experience in the closer role. Aceves has 4 saves in his entire 4 year MLB career and will be under a tremendous amount of pressure to get those critical final three outs.

Despite the injury concerns, the Red Sox have arguably the best lineup in the major leagues as well as three high quality pitchers. Expect the Red Sox to take home the AL East crown.