It feels like it has been a long time, almost as long as a typical Red Sox-Yankee game, but the baseball season is finally upon us. Technically, the season has already begun, but there are very few people actually aware of that fact since the Dodgers and Diamondbacks started the MLB year not under the lights at Chavez Ravine or at Chase Field, where the Dodgers players took the longest swim in a pool after winning the NL West since Leonardo DiCaprio in the Titanic (seriously, there was room on that raft for two people), but instead, played ball at four in the morning in Sydney, Australia. While I have nothing wrong with baseball trying to expand its market to a more global platform, don't you think the season should start in the country where most of the games are actually played (don't worry I remembered the Blue Jays, so Toronto fans can be happy about something since the Maple Leafs defense just let up two goals as I wrote this sentence and have now lost 9 straight games in regulation).
Last year was one of the best major league seasons that we have seen in recent history and I'm not just saying that because the Red Sox won their 3rd World Series since 2004. Ok, I am entirely saying that because of the fact that the Red Sox went from chicken and beer in 2011 to 69 wins and their worst season since 1960 (Ted Williams's last year with the team) in 2012 (thank you Bobby Valentine) to the best team in baseball in 2013. Aside from the Sox going from worst to first, we also saw Miguel Cabrera nearly win his second straight triple crown, we were able to watch the greatest closer in the history of baseball in Mariano Rivera say goodbye, we had the privilege of seeing Clayton Kershaw literally never give up a hit, we were lucky enough to watch the emergence of young stars like Yasiel Puig, Jose Fernandez, Michael Wacha, and Xander Bogaerts, and we also witnessed the Houston Astros attempt to play baseball (you know you are having a bad season when you draw a Nielsen rating of 0.0 in your local area during a home game against the Indians or when you finish the season 21-62).
However, aside from the fact that I am already preparing for the Red Sox to repeat as champions for the first time in the major leagues since the Yankees three peat from 1998 to 2000, the 2014 MLB season should be even better than last year in terms of entertainment value. One of the three greatest shortstops in the history of baseball in Derek Jeter is in his final year, Bud Selig is entering his 22nd and final year as the commissioner of the major leagues, we will finally have extensive instant replay in baseball, Albert Pujols is approaching 500 home runs and also a retirement home, the Phillies are hoping that their 180 million dollar opening day payroll can help them finish with more than 73 wins, the Mets are trying to finish above .500 for the first time since 2008, baseball is finally seeing a shift towards younger players like Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Manny Machado, A-Rod is nowhere to be found, and the Astros will attempt to play baseball once again (Scott Feldman is their opening day starter; that is all). What else could be better.
AL East Preview:
There has not been a division in sports that has been dominated quite like the AL East outside of the AFC East in football (the Patriots, though, are fortunate enough to be competing against the Bills, who have not finished above .500 since 1999, the Dolphins, who have won one playoff game since Dan Marino and have a locker room that is reminiscent of a team with Gilbert Arenas, and the Jets, whose passing game was only ahead of the Bucs last year. The Jets, Dolphins, and Bills have combined for 2 seasons of 11 or more wins since 2002 and the Patriots have had 9 such years). The Yankees and Red Sox have won the AL East 16 of the last 19 years and 25 of the last 38 seasons, which includes 10 World Series and 16 American League pennants between the clubs.
Boston Red Sox Preview:
With the Red Sox coming off their 8th World Series, they are the front-runners to come out of the AL East and the American League once again this season, and that is widely accepted, not just my Red Sox love bleeding out. After having the 4th worst ERA in all of baseball at 4.70 in 2012, the Sox pitching had a complete turn around last year, finishing 7th in strikeouts with nearly 8 per game and having their most quality starts in a season with 95 since 2002 (a season where Pedro Martinez was 20-4 with a 2.26 ERA and Derek Lowe was 21-8 with a 2.58 ERA and the tandem finished 2-3 in the AL Cy Young race respectively).
The Sox rotation is as good as it has been since the glory years of Pedro in the early 2000's. Jon Lester is going to be the ace of the staff once again this year, not only because he is in a big contract year at the age of 30, but also because his cutter is looking like one of the best in the big leagues once again, especially against left handed hitters, who have a 3.36 strikeout to walk ratio against him. I never thought I would utter this sentence but John Lackey should be another reason why the Sox will have a very good rotation in 2014. After literally being the worst pitcher on the face of the Earth and finishing with a laughable 6.41 ERA in 2011 (Doc Ellis could have done better sober) and missing 2012 with Tommy John Surgery, Lackey not only had a 3.52 ERA during the season in one of the most hitter friendly ballparks in the majors, but he then had a 3.52 ERA in 5 playoff appearances and was the winning pitcher in the clinching game 6 in the World Series. Lackey went from being the most hated man in Boston since Rick Pitino to being the Red Sox's most reliable starter (Farrell trusted Lackey enough to put him in to pitch against the Cardinals in game 4 in his first relief appearance since 2004). There has not been an athlete that fell from grace or into relative obscurity and then revitalized their career quite like John Lackey since maybe Josh Hamilton (before he struck out every other at-bat with the Angels after getting Albert Pujols syndrome), Garrison Hearst, or James Braddock (watch Cinderella Man with Russell Crowe, a movie that tells the story of James Braddock, which I would say is best boxing movie of all-time aside from Raging Bull and Million Dollar Baby).
While Boston will certainly miss Jacoby Ellisbury, a guy that stole 52 bases last year and had a 5.7 WAR, they bring back a majority of their lineup that scored the most runs in the majors since the Red Sox team back in 2011. With the additions of A.J. Pierzynski for Jared Saltalamachhia, who hit just.218 against left handed pitching, and the amazing Xander Bogaerts replacing Stephen Drew, who played some quality defense but batted .111 in the playoffs, the Sox have even more depth in their order to go with their sluggers, David Ortiz and Mike Napoli, in the middle of their lineup.
New York Yankees Preview:
For just the second time in the last 19 years since 1995, the Yankees failed to appear in the postseason, and New York absolutely hates missing out on baseball's biggest stage. You may be thinking that this is a rather conspicuous statement because every team wants to make the playoffs every year, but the Yankees are different. If the Cubs don't make the playoffs, they still have that lovable Chicago spirit and the history of Wrigley Field. If the Pittsburgh Pirates miss out on the postseason, their fans understand that they are a small market team without the resources of bigger clubs. If the Royals are not in the playoffs, their fans do not even react because they do not even remember what it is like to watch a postseason game since they haven't played extra baseball since they won the World Series with George Brett and Bret Saberhagen in 1985. But if the Yankees don't make the playoffs, there is nothing quite like it in sports.
After the Bronx Bombers missed out on the postseason in 2008, they spent 441 million on players the following off-season including 180 million on Mark Teixeira, 161 million on CC Sabathia, and 82.5 million on A.J. Burnett (Burnett could be the only pitcher I know to get 16.5 million per year, go 34-35 with a 4.79 ERA, and not be remembered as a failure because he pitched that great game 2 against the Phillies when the Yanks were done 1-0 in the 2009 World Series and absolutely needed a win).
Similarly, this off-season after missing the playoffs, the Yankees committed 471 million dollars to players, bringing in Masahiro Tanaka (7 years, 155 million, which is questionable for a pitcher to be paid the 5th most ever despite never throwing in the big leagues), Jacoby Ellisbury (153 million over 7 years, which they will regret in four years when he loses his speed since he has only batted above .305 in a full season once in his career), Brian McCann (5 years, 85 million for a guy who hit .226 in his final 55 games last year), and Carlos Beltran (45 million over 3 years, which is not a bad move for a proven postseason hitter that will cancel out Mark Teixeira). While I'm not sure about the years or the money amount on any of those contracts, they will put the Yanks in position to do some definite damage this year. Tanaka looked impressive in spring ball and Michael Pineda is going to be one of the breakout pitchers in 2014. Although he is not the same guy that threw 97-98 mph fastballs in Seattle when his strikeouts per 9 innings was the second best in the AL, he can still hit the mid 90's and he has a pretty good change-up.
The question with the Yankees comes in their infield, as Teixeira and Jeter played a combined 32 games last year and Kelly Johnson and the 36-year old Brian Roberts are not anywhere near top tier second and third baseman.
Baltimore Orioles Preview:
In Baltimore, Buck Showalter may be the biggest genius since Matt Damon in Good Will Hunting. How anybody can lead a pitching staff of Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, Jason Hammel, and Wei-Yin Chen to 85 wins by mixing and matching the bullpen is something else. The Orioles are going to give up a fair amount of runs once again this season, especially since Camden Yards saw the 4th most home runs leave the ballpark in 2013, but they did bring in Ubaldo Jimenez on a 50 million dollar deal from the Indians and they will also have Bud Norris for a full season. Jimenez does not have the same velocity on his fastball that he did when he started the 2010 season 15-1 with the Rockies, but if he keeps his fastball down in the zone, he can still be effective.
At bat, the Orioles could arguably have the best lineup in baseball if Manny Machado can return somewhere near the player he was last year when he hit 51 doubles and had a 6.4 WAR. The middle of their order is just deadly with Chris "I will hit every ball over the fence" Davis, Adam "I can literally hit any pitch" Jones, Nelson "Performance Enhanced" Cruz, Matt "I've hit 20 home runs every year since 2011 but nobody notices me" Wieters, and J.J. "I'm actually a power hitting shortstop" Hardy. Last season, these 5 guys alone had more home runs than 16 other MLB teams including the Yankees, Dodgers, and Cardinals, which helped the Orioles hit a league high 212 home runs on the season. They have some of the most powerful hitters in baseball and despite the fact that I will fight to my grave that PED's impact on players is immeasurable, Cruz and his performance enhanced swing is perfect for Camden Yards and will be great insurance behind Crush Davis.
The main question with the Orioles will be their bullpen, which is so important to any team that has Showalter as its manager. Buck will go to his bullpen early and often, which means that for Baltimore to be successful, they will have to have a solid pen. After going 29-9 in one run games in 2012, helping them make their first trip to the postseason since 1997, the Orioles went 20-31 in such games last year because their bullpen was unreliable and blew the third most saves in baseball with 27. Jim Johnson and his sinker have gone off to Oakland, so it is up to Tommy Hunter to be the steady presence at the back end of O's bullpen.
Tampa Bay Rays Preview:
As if the AL East wasn't tough enough, the Tampa Bay Rays pitching staff is just nasty and the scary part about their rotation is that every guy is under the age of 28, which would mean even more except for the fact that the Rays probably wouldn't even pay for a gum ball machine in their clubhouse. Tampa likely has their best pitching staff since their run of success began in 2008, which is saying something since they have been to the playoffs 4 of the past 6 years and made the World Series back in 2008. David Price looked like a Cy Young pitcher at the end of last year when he finished the season 9-4 with a 2.53 ERA in his last 18 starts, as his cutter and change-up allowed him to not rely so much on his fastball. Matt Moore has the ability to be one of the majors best pitchers as long as he stays in the strike zone. His 4.5 walks per 9 innings was the second worst amongst pitchers that threw at least 150 innings in 2013 and yet he still ended up 17-4 because his stuff is just that good. Alex Cobb went 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA last season and will only improve in his 3rd full season in the big leagues and Chris Archer is one of the game's brightest young pitchers with his ability to hit the mid 90's on the fastball so that he can set up his deadly slider. Aside from maybe the Tigers with Verlander, Scherzer, and Sanchez, the Rays staff is the best in the American League, as no other team has the power arms throughout their rotation like Tampa Bay.
However, as has always been the question with the Rays and their 3rd lowest MLB payroll, their offense will need to be able to score enough runs in order for them to win ballgames. With a healthy MVP type guy in Evan Longoria, a full season of do it all Wil Myers in right field, and the always steady Ben Zobrist playing any position imaginable, the Rays lineup is as balanced and well equipped as it has been in a while.
Tampa has lost in the ALDS 3 of the last 4 years, but this seems like Joe Maddon's best chance to get the Rays their first ever franchise World Series and bring them out of a championship-less category that includes the San Diego Padres (lost in the 1984 World Series to the Tigers and the 1998 World Series to the Yankees), Washington Nationals, Texas Rangers (11th team to lose back-to-back World Series), Houston Astros (lost in the 2005 World Series to the White Sox), Colorado Rockies (lost in the 2007 World Series to the Red Sox), Milwaukee Brewers (lost in the 1982 World Series to the Cardinals when they were still in the AL), and Seattle Mariners. In the NFL, 12 teams have never won a Super Bowl (Bills, Browns, Bengals, Texans, Titans, Jaguars, Chargers, Vikings, Lions, Panthers, Falcons, and Cardinals), in the NBA, 13 teams have never hoisted the Larry O'Brien Trophy (Raptors, Nets, Pacers, Cavaliers, Bobcats, Magic, Timberwolves, Nuggets, Jazz, Clippers, Suns, Hornets, and Grizzlies), and in the NHL, 11 teams have never won Lord Stanley (Sabres, Panthers, Blue Jackets, Capitals, Blues, Wild, Predators, Jets, Coyotes, Canucks, and Sharks).
Toronto Blue Jays Preview:
Finally, we get to Rob Ford (if only America had more mayors like him, which I am saying only half jokingly because we did have an extortioner in office in Detroit with Kwme Kilpatrick). You have to commend Rob Ford's local baseball team for spending money and at least attempting to improve their club but it is hard to defend a front office that thought trading Travis d'Arnaud and paying around 200 million dollars for one year of Josh Johnson and his dead arm, one year of John Buck and Emilio Bonifacio, six years of Jose Reyes getting injured and not batting over .300, four years of a steady but declining Mark Buehrle at the end of his career, and three years of R.A. Dickey was a good idea.
The Jays do have a pretty solid lineup from top to bottom, especially if Jose Reyes can stay on the field and be the table setter for the team by stealing 30 or 40 bases and scoring 100
Despite Melky being a manifestation of Jose Guillen or Lenny Dystra, Toronto will be able to score runs, but their pitching staff is far and away the worst in the very difficult AL East. In a ballpark that was the site of the 4th most runs in the MLB last season, the Blue Jays are going to struggle with a rotation of the very young 23-year old Drew Hutchison, the often injured Brandon Morrow, Mark Buehrle, and R.A. Dickey, a pitcher that doesn't even know where his knuckleballs are going to end up most of the time. Rob Ford could probably do a better job as the GM of this time (until he was found in his car using Melky's PED's).
AL Central Preview:
The American League Central has typically been the odd division out when it comes to the American League. This may have to do with the fact that the last time the Royals made the playoffs in 1985 Nelson Mandla was in prison, the Berlin Wall was still standing, and Super Mario Bros. was just released, the White Sox are Chicago's other team, the Indians cannot even get fans to their games at Progressive Field (only an average of 43.5 percent of their ballpark was full on a given night, the lowest in the majors despite the fact that they made the playoffs), the Twins are in a small market, and the Tigers are in a more football obsessed city. Before the major leagues went to the two wild card system in 2012, only once in 17 years did the AL Central send two teams to the postseason (Twins and Tigers in 2006) and the division has only had one team ever finish with 100 wins or more (Indians in 1995). Much should be the same this year, as the Tigers are the clear class of the AL Central with little competition from the teams around them except for possibly the Indians.
Detroit Tigers Preview:
Often times after a team makes a big money move and it doesn't work out, they sit around and wait for the contract to expire until they can finally get out of the bad deal. Obviously, with some of baseball's heinous contracts it is impossible to do anything with them because nobody is going to trade for Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Howard, or Jason Werth (except for maybe Alex Anthopolous in Toronto) and have to pay them all the money that is in their deals.
The Tigers were in a similar position this off-season. After signing Prince Fielder to a nine year, 214 million dollar contract in 2011, it was evident that the move was not working out as the Tigers had thought it would with Cabrera and Fielder in the middle of their order. Fielder had career lows in almost every batting category last season and in two full postseasons with Detroit, he had just 1 home run, 3 RBI's, and hit below .200 in 24 games. Also, with Fielder at first base, Cabrera had to play third, which is not his favored position and hurt the Tigers defensively and hampered their best hitter at the plate. Thus, when the Tigers got their chance, they were smart to trade Fielder to the Rangers for one of the three best second basemen in baseball in Ian Kinsler. Kinsler is a guy that gives the Tigers their most legitimate second basemen since Lou Whitaker in the 1980's and 1990's and he will get on base for guys behind him like Cabrera and Victor Martinez. In the last four years, Cano, Matt Carpenter, Pedroia, and Chase Utley are the only second basemen that have a better weighted on-base percentage than Kinsler.
Aside from Kinsler, it is also very important that Victor Martinez stays healthy for the Tigers so that he can protect Miggy and collect any of the 292 million dollars that falls out of his pockets (a very well deserved contract though for Cabrera in all seriousness).
Meanwhile, the Tigers rotation is going to be great once again this year with 2011 Cy Young and MVP Justin Verlander, 2013 Cy Young Max Scherzer, and last year's AL ERA champion Anibal Sanchez (my sleeper pick for the Cy Young this year). Verlander and Scherzer can just throw gas (among many other things) and Sanchez has the best slider in baseball except for Yu Darvish, Zack Greinke, and maybe Madison Bumgarner. The Tigers have a top three pitching staff in the MLB along with the Nationals rotation of Strasburg, Zimmermann, Gio, and Fister and the Dodgers staff of Kershaw, Greinke (highest paid player in baseball this season), Haren, and Hyun-jin Ryu.
Last year the Tigers bullpen was their downfall in the ALCS against the Red Sox because essentially Verlander, Scherzer, or Sanchez went 7 innings and barely let up anything and then Veras or somebody else would blow it late in the game (thinking about it, how did the Red Sox win that series. The Sox had one hit through the first 14 innings of game 1 and 2 and somehow came away from Boston tied 1-1 in the series). Although left hander Drew Smyly is moving into the rotation, the Tigers did bring in the always dependable Joe Nathan to be their closer, who had 43 saves and just 3 blown saves with the Rangers last year in route to the second highest WAR for a relief pitcher behind Koji Uehara.
Kansas City Royals Preview:
I'm calling it now: the Kansas City Royals will be one of the two
American League wild card teams this year and will finally make the playoffs for
the first time in nearly 30 years (the only thing worse than not making
the playoffs since 1985 would be not winning a playoff game since 1993
and going 0-7 in the process including losing a game after leading 38-10
in the 3rd quarter. I guess some things are just in the water in Kansas City). Since the Royals last made the postseason, the Yankees and Braves have each made 17 trips to the playoffs. The Toronto Blue Jays are the only other MLB team with a playoff drought of more than 12 years (they last made the postseason in 1993). The Minnesota Timberwolves have the longest NBA playoff drought at a relatively short 10 seasons, the longest NFL postseason drought is 14 years held by the Buffalo Bills, and the Edmonton Oilers have the longest NHL playoff drought at just a short 7 seasons.
Despite it being hard to believe that a team could actually go nearly three decades without making a single postseason and still have fans, the misery is going to end very shortly for the Royals (I was going to say Kansas City but then I remembered they still have Andy Reid coaching in playoff games where clock management and playing well in the 4th quarter is actually needed). The only positive in not making the playoffs since winning the World Series in 1985 (thank you umpire Don Denkinger) is that you get to stockpile picks in the MLB draft and after years of high picks and compensation selections, the Royals are finally near a playoff team. Eric Hosmer, who the Royals took with the number 3 overall pick in 2008, has gotten better each year in the league, improving so much last year that he won a Gold Glove and was one of two AL first basemen, along with Miguel Cabrera, to bat above .300 and also have more than 15 home runs and 75 RBI's. Hosmer's big and powerful bat goes well with Billy Butler, a first round draft pick in 2004, in the middle of the Royals lineup. Butler is a very underrated player, as he has batted above .288, had a slugging percentage above .411, and finished the season with 78 or more RBI's every year since 2009.
Kansas City also has more complimentary pieces this year than ever before, which will give their lineup great flexibility, especially if their middle of the lineup guys struggle for parts of the season. Norichika Aoi has had an on-base percentage of .355 and .356 in two MLB seasons, which is of the utmost importance for a leadoff hitter. While it has not worked out exactly as planned for Alex Gordon, who was taken 2nd overall in 2005, or Mike Moustakas, who also got picked 2nd overall but this time in the 2007 draft, they have showed signs of why they were considered top prospects. Gordon has won three straight Gold Gloves in left field and his WAR of 12.1 from 2011 to 2012 was the 4th highest in the majors over that stretch, only behind Braun, Cabrera, and Cano. Moustakas has also been really good with his glove, going a Royals record 47 straight games without making an error, and he is destined to have a solid year in his 3rd MLB season.
Meanwhile, with a pitching staff of James Shields, Jason Vargas, Jeremy Guthrie, Bruce Chen, and the rocket throwing Yordano Ventura and a closer in Greg Holland that had the 3rd most saves in 2013 behind Jim Johnson and Craig Kimbrel, the Royals can finally play a meaningful game in October.
Cleveland Indians Preview:
The Indians are going to be a solid team once again this season in the AL Central but so few people in Cleveland will actually know that since Progressive Field has been imitating the attendance level that was present, or more preciseness not present, at Crosley Field during the 1960's before the Reds became the Big Red Machine with Pete Rose, Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan, Tony Perez, and Dave Concepcion. Since 2010, the Tribe have had the lowest attendance in baseball and one of the worst stadium capacities in the game (when you are bringing in less fans than the Marlins, you know something is wrong).
The Indians are destined for a season anywhere from 80 to 85 wins, as there is no team in the major leagues more average than Cleveland (something their basketball team would actually take). They have an an average to above average lineup and a below average to average pitching staff that should put them above .500 for just the 4th time since 2002 but just outside the playoff picture, which would deny them their first back-to-back playoff appearances since they made the postseason every year from 1995 to 1999.
From top to bottom, the Indians have a very solid batting order but nothing that is going to make the Red Sox, Tigers, or Rangers fearful. Last season, Cleveland was 10th in the MLB in home runs with 171, 10th in total base with 2,240, 13th in batting average at .255, and 15th in hits with around 8.6 per game. Nick Swisher is going to hit in the 20-30 home run range with an OPS+ around 120, Jason Kipnis can drive in 80 runs and a have a OPS in the .800's (could be the most widely unknown player to ever make 52.5 million dollars in a contract), Carlos Santana has some power and can have a slugging percentage around .450 and an isolated power of .200, and Asdrubal Cabrera and Yan Gomes are above average hitters for their respective positions of shortstop and catcher. There are few teams with the depth in their lineup of the Indians, who have a solid player at every single position, but most of the other top teams in the AL have a big time hitter in the middle of their lineup, which the Indians lack (Red Sox have Big Papi, Orioles have Chris Davis, Tigers have Cabrera, Rangers have Beltre/Fielder, and Angels have Trout). Since a Hall of Famer like Nap Lajole, Tris Speaker, Earl Averill, or Lou Boudreau is not walking onto the field in Cleveland any time soon, the Indians are not going to score enough runs in order for their questionable pitching staff to bring them to the postseason.
Danny Salazar could turn into something really special for Cleveland, but it may be too early to count on him to be his best for an entire season at just the age of 24. Salazar, though, looked impressive in his few starts last season, throwing a mid 90's fastball and bringing back Luis Tiant rookie year comparisons. Justin Masterson and Zach McAllister are both solid rotation guys, but having to rely on them to be top end starters even 2004 Matt Hasselbeck thinks is wishful thinking (I do love Masterson's slider though and wish my Sox never traded him for Victor Martinez, who never came up with a big hit in Boston). The Indians, who had a MLB low 2 extra innings losses last season, will also need to hope that their bullpen of guys like Marc Rzepczynski, Cody Allen, John Axford, and John Axford's beard will be able to finish out close games.
Minnesota Twins/Chicago White Sox Preview:
Since the Twins and White Sox should be two of the worst three teams in the American League along with the Astros, I am just combining their team previews into one paragraph because the chances of them making the playoffs are as slim as James Harden actually playing some defense in the next five seasons. After winning the AL Central six out of ten years from 2001 to 2010 and finishing with a record above .500 in 9 of those seasons (2007 being the exception), the Twins have had three straight seasons of 96 or more losses for a record of 195-291, their worst stretch since 1998-2000. In fact, their 99 losses in 2011 were the second most in a season since the franchise moved to Minnesota from Washington in 1961, only behind the 1982 year when the Twinkies went 60-102. Meanwhile, after winning the World Series in 2005 for the first time since 1917, the White Sox have not won a playoff series since and their 99 losses last year was their worst season since they went 56-106 all the way back in 1970. The Twins and White Sox should see their recent struggles continue once again this season.
The Twinkies, who finished second to last in the AL in runs and last in the league in earned runs last year, did make some small improvements to their ballclub in the off-season. Joe Mauer, who will be getting paid 23 million dollars a year until 2018 but has played less than 115 games two of the previous three seasons, is only going to play first base this year, which should keep him much healthier for Minnesota. Despite having the second best batting average in the AL and the third best on-base percentage in the league in 2013, Mauer will be looking to regain his power stroke (he hit 28 long balls in 2009 and has hit 33 in the four years since then). The Twins also added veteran Ricky Nolasco (coming off his best season), Phil Hughes (coming off his worst season), and Mike Pelfrey (also coming off his worst season) to their rotation, which is likely going to get hit very hard by teams like the Tigers, Royals, and Indians. Aside from some of the young minor leaguers that may come up during the season (Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Alex Meyer), the only thing for Twins fans to look forward to is Ron Gardenhire becoming the 10th manager to ever win 1,000 games with the same team their entire career (Connie Mack, John McGraw, Walter Alston, Tommy Lasorda, Earl Weaver, Mike Scioscia, Tom Kelly, Danny Murtaugh, and Red Schoendienst being the others).
Meanwhile, the White Sox have something to look forward to every 5th day when the current version of Randy Johnson takes the mound in the form of Chris Sale. Sale is right up there with David Price for the best left handed pitcher in the majors in the non-Clayton Kershaw pitching category. Last season, Sale had a 3.07 ERA (7th in the AL), a 1.073 WHIP (3rd in the AL), 226 strikeouts (3rd in the AL), a 4.913 strikeouts to walk ratio (2nd in the AL), and a 6.9 WAR (2nd in the AL for pitchers), and yet he finished 11-14 (3 less wins than CC Sabathia, who had a 4.78 ERA and 1 less win than Jeremy Hellickson, who had a 5.17 ERA). This is once again a remainder that pitchers can not only be judged based upon wins and losses because Chris Sale is undoubtedly one of the best pitchers in the league. He should, however, have some more run support than last year when the White Sox averaged an AL worst 3.69 runs per game. Jose Abreu, the Cuban defect who the White Sox signed for 6 years and 68 million dollars in the off-season, seems to have some real pop in his bat, as does big time prospect Avisail Garcia, who the White Sox acquired in the Jake Peavy, Jose Iglesias three way trade last season. Finally, Chicago's other team (yes, it's true) will also be entertaining because the Adam Dunn strikeout count is always something to keep tabs on during a season (This will alarm you, but Adam Dunn is likely two seasons away from 500 home runs. If we take the steroid guys out of the equation, which would be Bonds, A-Rod, Sosa, Palmeiro, Palmerio, Palmeiro, and Sheffield, the worst hitter to ever go yard 500 times in his career is likely Reggie Jackson or Eddie Murray. Adam Dunn is not even on the same planet as those guys, so it would be odd to see a career .238 hitter on that historic list).
AL West Preview:
The AL West has been the hardest division to figure out over the past few decades in the American League. The Red Sox and Yankees have had a stronghold over the AL East and the winner of the AL Central has been fairly obvious coming into each season with the Twins dominating the 2000's until the Tigers recent resurgence. However, the AL West has had no such pattern in the teams representing the division in the postseason. We all remember the Seattle Mariners team that went 116-46 in 2001, a record that tied the 1906 Chicago Cubs for the most wins in a season, but the following year, the Mariners did not even reach the postseason. Similarly, in 2002, the Angels made the playoffs as a wild card team from the AL West and won their first World Series in franchise history, but in 2003, the team did not even win 80 games (although the 1998 Marlins are impressed by that). In 2012, the A's had the second lowest payroll in baseball at around 55 million dollars, but they won the west for the first time since 2006 over the Angels and their 154 million dollar roster and the Texas Rangers, the two-time defending AL pennant winners. The A's won the AL west again last year, their first back-to-back division titles since 2002-2003 (moneyball years) despite the fact that Josh Hamilton and his 17.4 million dollar contract nearly equaled what Oakland was giving to Dan Straily, A.J. Griffin, Josh Donaldson, Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone, Josh Reddick, Brandon Moss, Jed Lowrie, Bartolo Colon, Seth Smith, and Grant Balfour combined (essentially their entire starting rotation and a majority of their positional players). My argument is basically that it is safe to assume that you can assume nothing when it comes to the AL West.
Texas Rangers Preview:
Yu! Yu! Yu! If the Rangers are going to make the playoffs for a 5th straight season (they didn't make the playoffs at all from 1961 until 1996), it will largely be because of Darvish, the most dominant thing out of Japan since Godzilla himself. Texas does have some major holes when it comes to starting pitching depth and the bottom of their order, so they will need a lot out of Yu (Darvish is my 2014 AL Cy Young pick. It can't get must worse for me since my pre-season NL Cy Young prediction last year was Matt Cain, who ended up having a 0.5 WAR and a worse ERA than Jorge De La Rosa - any sentence that goes a worse ERA than insert Rockies pitcher name here is just bad news). Darvish, though, is arguably the best right handed pitcher in the major leagues (King Felix of Seattle, Jose Fernandez, Verlander, Scherzer, or a healthy Stephen Strasburg may contest that claim). He throws a ton of sliders and cutters, which look like his fastball until they dip down in the zone before they reach the plate. No pitcher in baseball had a higher pitch value on their slider than Darvish, whose 27.6 slider pitch rank was well better than Justin Masterson's second best 18.7 slider pitch value. For this reason, Yu is a strikeout machine, as his 277 k's in 2013 were the most in a single-season for a pitcher not named Randy Johnson since Curt Schilling in 1997 (Randy had more strikeouts in 1998-2002, 2004) and his 11.9 strikeouts per nine inning rate was also the highest in a season for a pitcher not named Randy Johnson since Pedro Martinez in 1999 (Johnson had a better SO/9 in 2000-2002). Darvish is one of the few must watch guys in baseball when he takes the mound because his stuff is good enough where any time out he could do something really special like when he took a perfect game into the last batter on opening day last year against the Triple A-Astros or when he struck out 15 batters against the Triple-A Astros in the middle of August.
After Josh Hamilton left the Rangers for the Angels last off-season, Texas just decided that to spite him, they weren't going to have any quality left handed bats in their lineup (or there were just not any left handed hitters available on the market). Their left handed batters hit a paltry .244 in 2013 (in comparison, their right handed bats hit .276). Texas made sure that they addressed one of the biggest concerns in the off-season, making two of the biggest moves in the majors by bringing in Prince Fielder from Detroit and signing Shin-Soo "I've never hit above .310 in my career and have never hit more than 22 home runs in a season but I'm getting paid 130 million dollars" Choo. Despite some of his postseason struggles and his alarming inability to move off first base, Fielder has some unique power that few guys can match in the big leagues. Since 2007, only Miguel Cabrera has more long balls than Fielder, who is averaging more than 36 a year since that date. He will be helped by the short right field wall at Globe Life Park in Arlington, and also Adrian Beltre, the most underrated hitter in baseball hitting behind him (he has hit more than 28 home runs, added at least 92 RBI's, and hit better than a .295 batting average each of the last four years). On the other side of things, any left handed hitter that doesn't hit home runs and gets signed to a big deal just scares me because of what happened with Carl Crawford on my Sox, but Shin-Soo Choo does get on-base like a machine. His .423 on-base percentage was the 4th best in the league last season and Matt Holliday is the only other outfielder to have two seasons with an on-base percentage better than .400 in two different years.
The Rangers main concern right now though is getting healthy, especially on their injured plagued pitching staff. Matt Harrison, Colby Lewis, and Derek Holland will all begin the season on the disabled list (Atlanta and Oakland know how that feels), so Texas will need Tanner Scheppers and Martin Perez to hold down the fort for the beginning of the year until their rotation can get healthy as the season goes along.
Los Angeles Angels Preview:
When the Angels signed Albert Pujols to a 10 year, 254 million dollar contract in 2012 and also signed left hander C.J. Wilson to a 5 year, 77.5 million dollar deal within the same week, there were a lot of people that immediately jumped on the Angels bandwagon. Despite some of the struggles that the team faced in their first year with Pujols and Wilson, things still seemed to look positive when Mike Trout came up from the minors and instantly became one of the best position players in baseball along with guys like Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Andrew McCutchen, Dustin Pedroia, and Robinson Cano. Los Angeles even signed Josh Hamilton, who was coming off a season of 43 home runs, 128 RBI's, and a slugging percentage of .577 in 2012 with the Rangers, to a 5-year, 125 million dollar contract the following off-season to bolster their lineup. After bringing in Hamilton, most people felt that the Angels were destined for a deep run in the playoffs with superstars across the board. So, did I set up this entire little preface so that I could talk about how I did not think LA was going to be one of the best teams in the AL, despite the Pujols and Hamilton signings, because of their poor pitching staff? I would be lying worse than Pete Rose if I said I did not want to gloat about my Charles Xavier like psychic abilities on this prediction (I can't brag too much though because I did pick Maurice-Jones Drew in the first round of a fantasy draft last year). Not only have Pujols and Hamilton both struggled on their new ballclub, but the Angels have had an ERA well over 4.0 the past two seasons (4.02 in 2012 and 4.23 last year, the 7th worst in the league. All the teams in the 2012 postseason had an ERA well under 4.0 and Cleveland's ERA of 3.82 was the worst for a team in the playoffs in 2013, which is a wide gap from the Angels).
Once again this season, I am not sure that the Angels and their 155 million dollar payroll will turn things around and make it to the postseason. There is no doubt that the Halos have offensive fire power throughout the rather deep lineup, as they are right up there with Boston, Detroit, and Texas for the best order in the American League. Even in the worst case scenario where Albert Pujols realizes he no longer has the bat speed to catch up to fastballs and is just waiting out his contract (Steve Nash style) and Josh Hamilton continues to get hurt and breaks every bone in his body (Dodgeball reference sort of), the Angels will still be able to produce a lot of runs. Mike Trout is already the best player in baseball in just his third year in the league and the Mickey Mantle comparisons to the young center fielder are not even hyperbole. He has lead baseball in WAR in each of the last two seasons and his 10.9 WAR in 2012 was the 2nd best by a positional player not linked to steroids since 1976 (Cal Ripken had a 11.5 WAR in 1991). Meanwhile, all Raul Ibanez does is hit, no matter if he is as old as Hugh Hefner. His .281 career batting average against right handed pitching will help an Angels lineup that has a lot of righties with Trout, Pujols, Howie Kendrick, Chris Iannetta, and Chris Cowgill. David Freese, another right handed hitter, should also have a bounce back year after being the biggest World Series hero in 2011 since Joe Carter or Kirby Puckett, batting .293 with 20 long balls in 2012, but then hitting .262 with just 9 home runs last year. If the Angels can just get Brandon Belt or Mike Napoli like production out of Pujols and Alex Rios or Jay Bruce kind of offensive output from Hamilton, the Angels should remain amongst the top 7 in the league in runs scored for the 3rd year in a row.
The thing that really concerns me about this team is their pitching staff, which has been a bigger train wreck the past two years than Tony Romo in any meaningful game. The Angels are already short on arms without any injuries, which is destined to occur over a full 162 game season. More than ever before, the Angels are going to need Jered Weaver to remain healthy and be the ace of their staff. After finishing in the top 5 of the AL Cy Young from 2010 to 2012, Weaver made his fewest starts last year since 2006 as a result of a fractured left elbow. He should be back, however, with his unique delivery and his nasty compilation of off-speed pitches including his slider and change-up that tail away from right handed hitters who have a .229 career batting average against him. Although CJ Wilson is pretty good in those old spice commercials, he has certainly not been worth the 15.5 million that the Angels are paying him each year. Nonetheless, he is a solid pitcher that LA will be able to rely on for around 200 innings (he has pitched at least 200 innings the last four years) and a strikeout per 9 inning rate anywhere from 7 to 9. The back end of the Angels rotation, though, is as big of a question mark as the Cowboys defense (two Cowboys jokes in one paragraph. I somehow need to balance it out because of Dallas's eternal mediocrity). Behind Weaver and Wilson, LA's pitching staff is made up of Garrett Richards, Hector Santiago, and Tyler Skaggs, which doesn't even scare the Astros and will likely be the team's downfall in hopes of reaching the postseason for the first time since 2009.
Oakland Athletics Preview:
The Oakland A's back-to-back 90 win seasons have been one of the best success stories in baseball over the past few decades (behind the 1987 Twins, 1990 Reds, 2003 Marlins, 2007 Rockies, and 2008 Rays in terms of their overall achievements, but still very impressive considering their financial limits). I was even beginning to think that the A's could pull off the biggest surprise since M. Night Shyamalan's twist in The Sixth Sense by making their first World Series since the Rickey Henderson, Bob Welch team that got swept by the Reds in the 1990 World Series. However, just as the baseball gods would have it so that the teams that spend huge amounts of money and make the game more profitable are satisfied, the A's were killed by devastating injury news to their very consistent and important pitching rotation. A.J. Griffin, who had the 6th best WHIP at 1.125 and the 5th best hits per 9 innings rate in the American League last season, is going to spend significant time at the beginning of the season on the disabled list with flexor tendinitis. Meanwhile, Jarrod Parker, who is one of the many pitchers that people don't know from an Oakland staff that finished 4th in opponents batting average last year, is out for the entire 2014 season, needing the way to common Tommy John surgery to fix an arm problem (Parker can join the club of Medlen, Beachy, and Corbin). The A's do have more pitching depth than most teams in the majors, but any club that loses two of its best starters is going to have some issues replacing their arms in the rotation. Oakland is going to have to rely on Sonny Gray, Dan Straily, Tommy Milone, and gasp, Scott Kazmir to pick up the load for some of the injuries that the team has suffered.
The A's are a team that play a lot of close games, which means that they will need a solid bullpen in order to make sure that they can win some games where their starting pitching, or particularly their offense, is just not there. Jim Johnson is slated to be the team's closer after Oakland acquired him from Baltimore in an off-season trade. Last year, Johnson joined Mariano Rivera and Eric Gagne as the only three closers to ever have at least 50 saves in multiple seasons (Rivera did so in 2001 and 2004 and Gagne did it in 2002 and 2005), and yet he looked as bad as somebody can when still registering 50 saves in a season. His WAR was just a paltry 1.5, behind 12 other closers with at least 13 saves, mainly because he blew a league leading 9 saves, tied for the 4th most in a single-season since 2010. His sinker was hit hard and very often and he was constantly having to get out of jams because his hits per 9 innings went from 7.2 in 2012 all the way up to 9.2 in 2013. If Johnson does struggle, the A's do have a lot of other arms in the bullpen with guys like Luke Gregerson, Sean Doolittle, and Dan Otero, who were all very good last season.
At the plate, Oakland does not have the superstars, the power, or the speed of a team like the Rangers or the Angels, but they do have some good depth and a full lineup capability of being the hero on a particular night. Josh Donaldson, who finished 4th in the AL MVP race despite not making the All-Star game (no love for Oakland players), hit .301 with a .384 on-base percentage (6th in the AL) and added 24 home runs and 93 RBI's to go along with a very high 8.0 WAR, the 2nd best in the AL behind only the God that is Mike Trout. Donaldson, Coco Crisp, and Jed Lowrie should provide consistent hitting for the A's all season, so the overall productivity of their offense will come from three guys that can either hit a lot of home runs or strike out as much as any player that is not named Adam Dunn. Yoenis Cespedes showed to the entire world his freakish natural power when he won the 2013 Home Run Derby and Brandon Moss hit 30 home runs last year (one of only 6 major league first basemen to do so along with Chris Davis, Paul Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, and Adam Dunn), but both of their K% last year were amongst the worst 9 in all of baseball. Similarly, despite hitting 32 home runs in 2012, Josh Reddick struck out 151 times over the course of the season, the 10th most times in the American League behind the usual suspects like Adam Dunn, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Pena, Josh Hamilton, and Mark Reynolds. If Cespedes, Moss, and Reddick can limit their strikeouts and get on-base a little more often, Oakland could increase their run total and help make up for the losses of Griffin and Parker in the rotation.
Seattle Mariners/Houston Astros Preview:
Out of pure laziness and the fact that we are nearly 9,000 words into this article (take that Les Miserables), I am combining the team previews for the Houston "don't watch this team play baseball if you want to maintain your sanity" Astros and the Seattle "we spent a lot of money this off-season but aren't close to winning anything" Mariners. The Astors have finished with more than 105 losses in three straight seasons, the first team in baseball history to do so (the 1915 and 1916 A's teams both lost more than 105 games, as did the 1941 and 1942 Phillies. Oddly enough, the Athletics did that after reaching four World Series in five years and winning three of them). While the Astros are practically a triple-A ballclub, the Mariners at least went out and spent some money this off-season to try and reach the playoffs for the first team since they won 116 games in 2001. They signed Corey Hart, got Logan Morrison in a trade, signed closer Fernando Rodney, and obviously, spent the big bucks to get Robinson Cano for 240 million dollars. We will see how much 24 million dollars really means to Cano after this season because the Mariners are more than likely going to finish under .500 for the 5th straight year, their longest stretch since a period where they didn't have a winning season from 1977 to 1990.
Looking at the Astors lineup, they actually only have three legitimate major league players that would play on any other team, except for possibly a club like the Marlins or Cubs. Houston traded for the speedy Dexter Fowler so that he could be the team's solid lead-off hitter, and more so as a precaution to make sure that they don't come close to the 1962 Mets for the most losses in a season since 1900. You know that your team is as bad as the Bucks when their best player has never made an All-Star game and has never had a season with a WAR of at least 3. Jose Altuve is a more than good enough second basemen for a team, as he has gold glove ability and can steal some bases while Jason Castro is also a solid player behind the plate. I was going to include Chris Carter on that very short list of actual MLB players on the Astros but then I remembered that he strikes out at a rate that competes with Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds (he had the worst K% in the history of baseball at 36.2% last year and the 3rd most strikeouts in a season ever with 212). The Astors have a lot of very young arms in their rotation with guys like Brett Oberholtzer and Jarred Cosart, which means they will likely have some significant growing pains throughout the season.
The biggest move of the baseball off-season, aside from Chris Stewart going to his 7th different MLB team in a trade to the Pirates of course, was Robinson Cano moving on from the Yankees (When was the last time a star like Cano actually said no to the Yankees. When was the last time a star like Dwight Howard left the Lakers? How did the Yankees and Lakers lose out on bringing back their one of their star players in the same year? Andy Pettitte was likely the last big name to leave the Yankees when he signed with his hometown Astros in 2004, but he did eventually return to the Bronx in 2007. The last big time Laker that left the team in free agency was A.C. Green in 1993 when he went to the Suns, and he only ever made one All-Star game). Cano will face some serious difficulties though in Seattle. Safeco Field is not a safe haven for runs, as it ranked dead last in runs scored two years ago, and is continually towards the bottom half of the majors in home runs. He will also not have the same opportunities with guys getting on-base in front of him because Abraham Almonte and Brad Miller don't even make the Lion from Wizard of Oz afraid and Justin Smoak and Kyle Seager are not going to make teams pitch to Cano. The Mariners do have the third best King in the world behind LeBron and Lorenzo de' Medici from Da Vinci's Demons with King Felix (yes, I actually just made a Da Vinci's Demons reference, which is the best show on Starz since their last big show Spartacus), but the rest of their projected rotation of Erasmo Ramirez, James Paxton, Roenis Elias, and Blake Beavan have 25 combined career wins. It could be worse for Seattle; they could be without a NBA team.
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