Hazing has been going on in sports since the beginning of time (a little hyperbole) and harmless initiation to sports team can be seen at various tiers of athletics, particularly at the professional level. Over the years, veteran players
have had some very absurd, yet playful and kindhearted demands for the rookies on their team.
While the players on the Baltimore Orioles made their rookies wear tutus and dresses, the New York Knicks had their first year players wear pink pajamaswith hearts and teddy bears. Meanwhile, the coaches of the Cleveland Cavaliers made their rookies walk around with strollers and baby dolls for an entire day.
The
common thread between all of these amusing gestures was that they were very
innocent attempts to have some fun with the new guys on the team. However, the
recent bullying incident between fellow Miami Dolphin offensive linemen Richie
Incognito and teammate Jonathan Martin has added some real questions to the
nature of the hazing that goes on in sports, along with the locker room
environment that fosters this type of behavior. While hazing in sports is typically good-natured, the line between a harmless prank and bullying has been
blurred following this prominent professional football episode. The appalling harassment
that transpired between Incognito and Martin not only demonstrates the extent
to which hazing is taken, but it is also elucidates the fact that sports’
locker rooms are much different than a normal working or school environment.
It is a sad reality that the vicious
and merciless aggravation of Jonathan Martin by Richie Incognito could actually
occur in a sports setting, where everybody is on one team fighting for the same
goal: to win games. The details of the harassment are not an exaggeration or an
overreaction by those in the media, or by Martin himself. Among other things, Incognito
reportedly extorted at least 15,000 dollars from Martin, left some vulgar and racially charged voice mails and
texts on his phone, told Martin he would sexually abuse his sister, and threatened
to kill Martin and find the other members of his family and harm them. The
locker room culture of professional football, and sports in general, is now
under a microscope as a result of the outlandish hazing in the Dolphins locker
room.
The majority of the Miami players noted very conspicuous differences
between themselves and Martin. The offensive lineman had come from a very
educated family – both of his parents went to Harvard – and he likewise
attended a very prestigious academic university, Stanford, after turning down a
chance to play at Harvard. A multitude of players on the Dolphins associated
Martin’s intelligence, his love of poetry, and his quiet demeanor as a lack of
toughness. In fact, there are reports circulating that the Dolphin coaches told
Incognito to toughen Martin up because of this perceived weakness. In a locker
room atmosphere, Martin’s intelligence ostracized him from the rest of his team
in that his play on the field was viewed as “soft.” Richie Incognito, on the
other hand, was seen as a tough and vicious player, a guy who had been
suspended in college at Nebraska, been arrested for assault, later reinstated
to the team, and then suspended again after a fight in a bar. Nonetheless, in
the Dolphins locker room, Incognito was seen as the guy everybody wanted to
play with, as he was the fierce and vicious competitor, the player who would run through a
wall for his teammates.
This explains why in the aftermath of the allegations
of bullying in Miami’s locker room, the players on the Dolphins supported
Incognito rather than Martin, despite the verbal epitaphs that were thrown
Martin’s way. Offensive tackle Tyson Clabo said, "What's perceived is that Richie is this psychopath racist, and the reality is Richie as a pretty good teammate. I don't know why [Martin is] doing this. And the only person who knows why is Jonathan Martin." Defesnive tackle Randy Starks added, "We're trying to clear Richie's name. He's getting a bad rap." In fact, Martin waited a long time to file a grievance against Incognito
because he feared severe repercussions from the other players on the Dolphins.
Many players also supported Incognito because they thought Martin broke an
unwritten sports code that “what happens in the locker room, stays in the locker
room.” Although Incognito bullied Martin, the fact Martin “squealed” on a
teammate was seen as worse than the hazing. Antrel Rolle of the New York Giants
said about Martin, “At this level, you’re a man… And take awareness of that, man,
you’re a grown-a.. man. You need to stand up for yourself.” Rolle’s comments
prove that a professional sport locker room is often defined by toughness and
aggressiveness, and despite Martin’s emotional distress, the fact that he
needed help to deal with Incognito’s bullying was viewed as a man being
vulnerable and weak.
The really intriguing part about the
Incognito and Martin bullying incident is that this is not an isolated
situation that escalated out of hand, rather, hazing has been happening in college
and high school sports for decades. This past fall, the entire Cornell lacrosse team was
suspended for hazing as the freshmen on the roster were forced to participate
in an alcohol-chugging competition.
Good-natured fun will likely not escalate into the type of abuse that
occurred between Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin. Many pro athletes share the sentiment that hazing can unite a
team if it includes humor without malicious intent. However, the locker room
culture of sports is not an inviting atmosphere to those who appear vulnerable,
and it just takes one joke that goes too far to create a situation that can get
ugly. Sports’ locker rooms can certainly be a place for bullying, which is why coaches and executives in the front office need to be sensitive and aware of even seemingly
innocent hazing.
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Friday, November 15, 2013
Saturday, November 9, 2013
2013 MLB Rookie of the Year Awards
The 2013 MLB season was a wild ride that nobody could have foreseen when the first pitch of the year was thrown out in Houston on March 31st (The A's, Rangers, Angels, and Mariners were certainly happy to welcome the Astros to the AL West this season, who were 51-111 in 2013, the fourth most losses by a MLB team since 1952 behind the 1962 New York Mets [120 losses], 2003 Detroit Tigers [119 losses], and the 1952 Pittsburgh Pirates [113 losses]). After finishing 69-93 in 2012 in their worst season since a 62-100 campaign in 1965, the Boston Red Sox not only won the AL East for the first time since 2007, but they also went on to win the World Series in 6 games over the St. Louis Cardinals. The Red Sox 28 game win increase was the franchise's largest win disparity between two seasons since the club went 71-83 in 1945 and then reached the World Series the following year with a 104-50 record (this large win increase had a lot to due with the return of Ted Williams to the Red Sox after a three year absence because of his military service in WWII. Williams had 38 home runs, 123 RBI's, .497 OBP, .667 SLG, 1.164 OPS, 215 OPS+, and won the AL MVP with the Red Sox in the 1946 season.)
On the other side of the spectrum, after winning their second World Series in three years in 2012, the San Francisco Giants finished 10 games under .500 in 2013. San Francisco scored just 629 runs over the course of their entire 162 game season (the 6th fewest runs in the NL), and averaged only 0.32 runs in the third inning of games.
Meanwhile, despite having a 229 million dollar payroll, the Yankees failed to make the playoffs for the first time since 2008 and just the second time since 1994. The Los Angeles Angels, another big spending club, were also not playing in October, mainly due to the fact that in his first 72 games in Anaheim, Josh Hamilton batted .207 and averaged more than a strikeout per game. While teams with large payrolls like the Yankees (228 million), Phillies (159 million), Giants (142 million), Angels (142 million), White Sox (124 million), and Blue Jays (118 million) failed to make the postseason, the Athletics (68 million), Pirates (66 million), and Rays (57 million), all teams within the bottom five of the league in salary, made it to the playoffs. A team starting Derek Norris at catcher, Brandon Moss at first, Eric Sogard at second, Jed Lowrie at short, and Seth Smith at DH won their division and made the playoffs over a team with Mark Trumbo, Howie Kendrick, Mike Trout, Josh Hamilton, and Albert Pujols. Furthermore, despite adding Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, and R.A. Dickey in the off-season, the Blue Jays spent just three days above .500 the entire year, and had a team ERA of 4.25 (Mark Buehrle had a 4.15 ERA, R.A. Dickey had a 4.21 ERA, and Josh Johnson had a 6.20 ERA).
Obviously, predicating the 2013 MLB season would not have been a very easy task for anybody. However, after watching the entire year unfold, it is not as onerous to give out our 2013 MLB Rookie of the Year awards.
Since the Rookie of the Year award began in 1947, those who have received the honor have either continued to improve on their performance from their first year, or have faltered under the pressure that comes with being recognized as one of major league baseball's brightest young stars. Hall of famers like Jackie Robinson (1947), Willie Mays (1951), Frank Robinson (1956), Luis Aparicio (1956), Orlando Cepeda (1958), Willie McCovey (1959), Billy Williams (1961), Tom Seaver (1967), Red Carew (1967), Johnny Bench (1968), Carlton Fisk (1972), Eddie Murray (1977), Andre Dawson (1977), and Cal Ripken Jr. (1982) all won the Rookie of the Year award and then obviously went on to have outstanding MLB careers.
Also, current stars like Derek Jeter (1996), Carlos Beltran (1999), Albert Pujols (2001), Ichiro (2001), Justin Verlander (2006), Hanley Ramirez (2006), Dustin Pedroia (2007), Ryan Bruan (2007), Evan Longoria (2008), Buster Posey (2010), Craig Kimbrel (2011), Bryce Harper (2012), and Mike Trout (2012) all took home the Rookie of the Year award.
However, there are also a long list of names that went into baseball obscurity after they won the honor in their first major league season. Harry Byrd won the AL Rookie of the Year award in 1952 with the Philadelphia Athletics. However, the following year he had the most losses in the MLB with 20, the second worst ERA in the league at 5.51, and the allowed the third most hits in the league with 279. In Byrd's final 5 seasons he had an ERA of 4.53 and a 1.476 WHIP, which took him from once promising Rookie of the Year to MLB afterthought.
In 1965, Jim Lefebvre won the NL Rookie of the Year award with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but in a six year span from 1967 to 1972, he batted a measly .245, had a -7 RAA, and averaged just 6 home runs.
Finally, while Jerome Walton won the NL Rookie of the Year award in 1989 with the Chicago Cubs, the rest of his career was a major disappointment. In his final 9 MLB seasons from 1990 to 1998, he averaged 1 home run, 10 RBI's, and a 0.2 WAR.
AL Rookie of the Year: Tampa Bay Rays OF Wil Myers
The Kansas City Royals have not been in the postseason since they won the World Series in 7 games over the St. Louis Cardinals in 1985 when Brett Saberhagen won the CY Young (20-6, 2.87 ERA, 1.058 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9) and Hall of Famer George Brett had one of his best ever seasons (.335 AVG, 30 HR, 112 RBI, .585 SLG, 1.022 OPS, 179 OPS+, 322 TB, 6.4 BW, 8.1 oWAR). When small market teams struggle over a long period of time and don't have a successful core of players, they typically try to become a consistent contender by building up through the draft and trading away some of their veterans for younger and possibly more valuable future assets in the form of minor league prospects. The Royals have pretty much followed this template over the past decade.
In 2004, Kansas City traded Carlos Beltran, who had won the AL Rookie of the Year with the Royals in 1999 and was a star in the making, in order to avoid losing Beltran and getting nothing in return when he became a free agent. The Royals shipped Beltran to the Astros in a three-team deal where Kansas City received John Buck and two top end prospects (Mike Wood and Mark Teahen, who at the time was considered one of the best young players in all of baseball). Also, in a 8-year span from 2005 to 2012, Kansas City had a top five pick every year except for 2009, and with their high draft slots and multitude of selections, the team was able to begin to build a nucleus around Alex Gordon (2nd overall pick in 2005), Luke Hochevar (1st overall pick in 2006), Mike Moustakas (2nd overall pick in 2007), Greg Holland (10th round pick in 2007), Eric Hosmer (3rd overall pick in 2008), and, of course, Wil Myers (3rd round pick in 2009).
With all that being said, it was confounding when the Royals traded Myers, who had developed into one of the best, if not the best, prospect in baseball, for James Shields and Wade Davis. Obviously, any team that fails to make the playoffs for nearly 30 years should rightfully become a little impatient, and James Shields is a very reliable workhorse who has pitched over 200 innings ever year since 2007 (Justin Verlander and Mark Buehrle are the only other pitches to do so). However, trading Myers seemed to be a little impetuous, as proven by the fact that he should win the 2013 AL Rookie of the Year award.
Myers showed that he could do a little bit of everything in his first MLB season. He hit .293 against left handed pitchers, but also batted .292 versus right hand pitching. Myers had a .351 OBP and a 121 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) at home, but was also very good on the road, as he batted .313 and had a .567 SLG in games away from Tropicana Field. The outfielder had a .390 wOBA (weighted on base average) with the bases empty, but also had a .310 batting average with runners in scoring position with a .925 OPS. Furthermore, while Myers led all AL rookies in wRAA (weighted runs above average) at 12.6 and wRC (weighted runs created) at 53, he did not commit an error in either right or center field for Tampa Bay. Myers was also a catalyst behind Tampa Bay's fourth postseason appearance in the last six years. The Rays began July with a 44-39 record, but in just his second month in the big leagues, Myers batted .352 and had a .963 OPS to propel the Rays to a 20-5 month and a very solid 64-45 record through July.
It was a particularly weak AL rookie class this season, especially coming off a year with Mike Trout, Yoenis Cespedes, and Yu Darvish. Wil Myers was the only AL rookie with at least 45 RBI's (last season Trout, Cespedes, Jesus Montero, and Will Middlebrooks all had more than 50 RBI's) and no AL rookie pitcher had more than 10 wins or a WAR of at least 2 (last year 7 AL rookies had more than 10 wins and at least a WAR of 2.) The top competitors to Myers in this pedestrian AL rookie class are Jose Iglesias and Chris Archer.
Looking to become the first ever Rookie of the Year in a season in which he played for two teams (Red Sox and Tigers), Iglesias showed why many people consider him to be the best defensive shortstop the majors have seen since Omar Vizquel or Ozzie Smith. Iglesias's 2.0 ErrR, which is according to fangraphs, "the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by the number of errors he makes as compared to an average fielder at that position given the same distribution, was the third highest amongst AL shortstops, only behind Yunel Escobar (a ridiculous 5.6 ErrR) and Jhonny Peralta (5.1 ErrR). Furthermore, Iglesias's 0.6 DPR, which is according to fangraphs, "the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, based on the number double plays versus the number forces at second they get, as compared to an average fielder at that position, given the speed and location of the ball and the handedness of the batter," was the fourth best amongst AL shortstops, behind Alexi Ramirez (league-leading 2.4 DPR), Alcides Escobar (0.9 DPR), and J.J. Hardy (0.9 DPR). The surprising thing about Iglesias this year though was the fact that he was such an effective hitter. Iggy batted .303, which was tied with Jhonny Peralta for the highest amongst American League shortstops with at least 350 plate appearances, and had a .349 on-base percentage, which was only behind Jhonny Peralta in OBP amongst AL shortstops with at least 350 plate appearances.
Meanwhile, in a year in which 2012 AL Cy Young winner David Price had only 10 wins, Jeremy Hellickson had a 5.17 ERA (only Edinson Volquez and Joe Saunders had a worse ERA), and Alex Cobb had to miss two months of the season to a head injury, Chris Archer was the Rays most consistent pitcher. In Archer's 23 starts this season, he allowed 2 or less runs in 16 of them, including in July when he went 4-0 with a 0.73 ERA in 5 games. After being called up to the majors on June 1, Archer held opponents to a .223 batting average, which was the 5th best in the AL only behind Yu Darvish (.193), Max Scherzer (.196), Matt Moore (.212), and Hisashi Iwakuma (.218).
Nonetheless, Myers should have no trouble running away with the AL Rookie of the Year award this season. Unlike some of the other top baseball prospects who have come from the minor leagues in the past, Myers looked like the same player in the big leagues as he did with Triple-A Durham. Like any other young ballplayer, the outfielder is still adjusting to the majors and the difficulties of facing top notch pitching every night (as shown by the fact that Myers batted .202 in a month stretch from August 2 to September 2 with 32 strikeouts). However, Myers's free-flowing swing and diverse range of field capabilities will only continue to improve, which means that the Rookie of the Year award is likely not going to be the only honor he receives in his MLB career.
NL Rookie of the Year: Miami Marlins P Jose Fernandez
When the Miami Marins traded Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, John Buck, and Emilio Bonifacio to the Toronto Blue Jays, they not only dumped nearly 170 million dollars in salary (96 million from Reyes's contract, 52 million from Buehrle's deal, 13.75 million from Johnson's contract, 6 million from Buck's deal, and 2.2 million from Bonifacio's contract), but they also lost an assortment of their fairweather fans. On the surface level, the trade was not a terrible one for the Marlins. They got rid of some excessive contracts with underachieving players, specifically Reyes, who hit just .287 in his first year with the Marlins despite having a contract that was paying him more than 17 million per year. Miami was also able to trade Johnson and Buck, who were in the last year of their contracts, before they left the Marlins in free agency. In return, the Marlins were able to stockpile some highly rated prospects and young players.
However, the problem with the move was more so the symbolic message that it sent to Marlins fans. The trade of some of the club's most noticeable players was effectively showing the fans that the team was no longer willing to spend money to make a contending team and thereby lost the interest of a variety of their supporters. By the end of the season, the Marlins lineup was littered with unknown players like Greg Dobbs, Donovan Solano, Ed Lucas, Mike Dunn, Jeff Mathis, and Marcell Ozuna. Nonetheless, rookie pitcher Jose Fernandez, who the Marlins took in the first round of the 2011 draft, was as electrifying as any pitcher in the MLB this year. Although he may need to to lighten up on his very animated pitching antics, Fernandez is a player that Marlins fans should definitely embrace, especially following his scintillating rookie campaign.
Fernandez's first year in the MLB was so good that we should look at some of the greatest rookie pitching seasons in the history of the big leagues for a point of comparison. While you could certainly make an argument for a panoply of names, the best ever rookie pitching season are likely Mark Fidrych's 1976 season with the Detroit Tigers, Fernando Valenzuela's 1981 year with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and Dwight Gooden's 1984 season with the New York Mets.
Fidrych, known as The Bird, will always be remembered for his entertaining but very outlandish and bizarre pitching antics. The Detroit pitcher would talk to the ball before he pitched, fix the mound with his hands, and shake the hands of teammates in the middle of the field as well as fans during the game. However, Fidrych's antics were only so entertaining and compelling to the fans because of how successful he was as a pitcher in his rookie season. The Bird, who won the AL Rookie of the Year and finished second to Jim Palmer in the AL Cy Young in 1976, led the major leagues with a 2.34 ERA, a 159 ERA+ (adjusted ERA for the pitcher's parks and the average ERA over the entire league), a 35 adjusted pitching runs (measures the number of runs a pitcher allows compared to the league average in a neutral park with an equivalent number of innings pitched), and a 4.04 adjusted pitching wins (measures a pitcher's contribution to a team's total wins).
Meanwhile, Fernando Valenzuela's rookie season in 1981, where he won both the Rookie of the Year Award and the Cy Young, has to be considered one of the greatest rookie pitching seasons of all-time. The young pitcher rejuvenated a Dodgers team that had missed the playoffs for two consecutive years and his quirky and awkward looking pitching style and his Latin American roots created a huge fan following around him, known as "Fernandomania." Valenzuela came out of nowhere and began the 1981 season with the craziest 8-game stretch in baseball history. The Mexican pitcher started the year 8-0 with 7 complete games, 5 shutouts, a 0.50 ERA, and a combined 4 runs allowed in 72 innings pitched. At the age of 20, Valenzuela took the baseball world by storm with the greatest start to a season in the history of the game and his 8 shutouts over the course of the season has only been eclipsed once in the last 33 years (John Tudor in 1985 with the St. Louis Cardinals).
Finally, Dwight Gooden is largely remembered for his 1985 season with the Mets, where he went 24-4 and had a 1.53 ERA, becoming the first pitcher in 66 years since 1919 to finish a season with an ERA under 1.60. However, what many people forget is the precursor to Gooden's phenomenal 1985 year, which came in his rookie season, where he was 17-9 with a 2.60 ERA and won the NL Rookie of the Year and finished 2nd in the NL Cy Young to Rick Sutcliffe. That year, Gooden had a league leading 276 strikeouts (more than he had in his historic 1985 season), which is still a record for a rookie pitcher, and was only eclipsed by three pitchers in the previous 13 years dating back to 1972 by Nolan Ryan (5 times), J.R. Richard (twice), and Steve Carlton (3 times). Gooden also became the first pitcher in 100 years to have a K/9 ratio above 11, which Henry Porter, Ed Cushman, and Lady Baldwin of the Milwaukee Brewers and The Only Nolan of the Wilmington Quicksteps all did in 1884.
However, Fernandez's first year in the big leagues deserves to be in the same conversation with Fidrych's, Valenzuela's, and Gooden's incredible rookie seasons. Fernandez was so good this year that if Clayton Kershaw didn't finish the season with a gaudy ERA of 1.83, the lowest since Pedro Martinez had a 1.74 ERA in 2000, he might have joined Valenzuela as the only pitchers to win both the Rookie of the Year and the Cy Young in the same season. The young star was at the top of the big leagues in almost every pitching category. His ERA of 2.19 was the second best in the majors, behind Kershaw, and his adjusted ERA+ of 176 was also the second best in the MLB, once again behind Kershaw. Fernandez became just the third pitcher since 1943 to have an ERA under 2.20 in his rookie season (minimum 160 innings pitched), joining both George Bradley of the 1968 St. Louis Brown Stockings and Jerry Koosman of the 1968 New York Mets, which were both done in the year of the pitcher. Fernandez allowed just 111 hits in 172 innings pitched, which averages out to a very impressive 5.8 H/9 ratio. Hit hits per 9 IP was the second best in a single-season since 1986, only behind Pedro Martinez in 2000, and the 11th best all-time. Fernandez was also 4th in WHIP at 0.979, behind Kershaw, Harvey, and Scherzer, 5th in K/9 at 9.75, behind Darvish, Scherzer, Sanchez, and Burnett, 2nd in adjusted pitching wins at 3.5, behind Kershaw, 4th in adjusted pitching runs at 30, behind Kershaw, Sanchez, and Darvish, and 4th in base-out runs saved at 33.09, behind Kershaw, Darvish, and Iwakuma. As good as the Cuban pitcher was throughout the season, he was at his absolute best in the latter half of the year. In Fernandez's 11 starts after the All-Star break, he was 7-1 with a 1.34 ERA and 88 strikeouts while holding opponents to a .164 batting average. The Marlins starter did not have one start over the second half of the year where he allowed more than 2 runs.
In most seasons, Yasiel Puig would be a sure-fire Rookie of the Year award winner, as no player has had a bigger impact on his team's success in the past several years than Puig. When the young Cuban star made his MLB debut with the Dodgers on June 3rd, Los Angeles was sitting at 23-32, 8.5 games behind the Diamondbacks despite having a payroll of over 215 million dollars. However, Puig's unique energy and dynamic play-making ability rejuvenated the entire Dodgers team, as LA manager Don Mattingly said, "I think the way Yasiel plays is really contagious for guys... His energy [is] infectious." After Puig joined the ball club, the Dodgers went 67-38 and finished the season 92-70, 11 games ahead of any other team in the NL West. Puig had 44 hits in his first month in the big leagues (a Dodger rookie record a month), which was the second most in a player's opening month in the majors, only behind Joe DiMaggio's 48 hits in May of 1936 with the New York Yankees. He also joined Joe DiMaggio as the only player to have at least 4 home runs and 40 hits in his first month in the MLB. Puig, who signed a 7-year, 42 million dollar contract with the Dodgers in 2012, finished the season with a .319 batting average and a 160 OPS+.
Despite the heroics of Yasiel Puig in Los Angeles and his direct impact on the team's first appearance in the postseason since 2009, Jose Fernandez's historic rookie season is deserving of the NL Rookie of the Year award. The Cuban pitcher has elite stuff with a mid-90's fastball that averages about around 95 MPH, but he also has a great secondary pitch with his curveball and can also mix in a change-up and a slider. There has been a lot of talk around baseball that Fernandez could be the next great MLB pitcher. However, the truth of the matter is, Fernandez is already one of the majors best pitchers.
On the other side of the spectrum, after winning their second World Series in three years in 2012, the San Francisco Giants finished 10 games under .500 in 2013. San Francisco scored just 629 runs over the course of their entire 162 game season (the 6th fewest runs in the NL), and averaged only 0.32 runs in the third inning of games.
Meanwhile, despite having a 229 million dollar payroll, the Yankees failed to make the playoffs for the first time since 2008 and just the second time since 1994. The Los Angeles Angels, another big spending club, were also not playing in October, mainly due to the fact that in his first 72 games in Anaheim, Josh Hamilton batted .207 and averaged more than a strikeout per game. While teams with large payrolls like the Yankees (228 million), Phillies (159 million), Giants (142 million), Angels (142 million), White Sox (124 million), and Blue Jays (118 million) failed to make the postseason, the Athletics (68 million), Pirates (66 million), and Rays (57 million), all teams within the bottom five of the league in salary, made it to the playoffs. A team starting Derek Norris at catcher, Brandon Moss at first, Eric Sogard at second, Jed Lowrie at short, and Seth Smith at DH won their division and made the playoffs over a team with Mark Trumbo, Howie Kendrick, Mike Trout, Josh Hamilton, and Albert Pujols. Furthermore, despite adding Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, and R.A. Dickey in the off-season, the Blue Jays spent just three days above .500 the entire year, and had a team ERA of 4.25 (Mark Buehrle had a 4.15 ERA, R.A. Dickey had a 4.21 ERA, and Josh Johnson had a 6.20 ERA).
Obviously, predicating the 2013 MLB season would not have been a very easy task for anybody. However, after watching the entire year unfold, it is not as onerous to give out our 2013 MLB Rookie of the Year awards.
Since the Rookie of the Year award began in 1947, those who have received the honor have either continued to improve on their performance from their first year, or have faltered under the pressure that comes with being recognized as one of major league baseball's brightest young stars. Hall of famers like Jackie Robinson (1947), Willie Mays (1951), Frank Robinson (1956), Luis Aparicio (1956), Orlando Cepeda (1958), Willie McCovey (1959), Billy Williams (1961), Tom Seaver (1967), Red Carew (1967), Johnny Bench (1968), Carlton Fisk (1972), Eddie Murray (1977), Andre Dawson (1977), and Cal Ripken Jr. (1982) all won the Rookie of the Year award and then obviously went on to have outstanding MLB careers.
Also, current stars like Derek Jeter (1996), Carlos Beltran (1999), Albert Pujols (2001), Ichiro (2001), Justin Verlander (2006), Hanley Ramirez (2006), Dustin Pedroia (2007), Ryan Bruan (2007), Evan Longoria (2008), Buster Posey (2010), Craig Kimbrel (2011), Bryce Harper (2012), and Mike Trout (2012) all took home the Rookie of the Year award.
However, there are also a long list of names that went into baseball obscurity after they won the honor in their first major league season. Harry Byrd won the AL Rookie of the Year award in 1952 with the Philadelphia Athletics. However, the following year he had the most losses in the MLB with 20, the second worst ERA in the league at 5.51, and the allowed the third most hits in the league with 279. In Byrd's final 5 seasons he had an ERA of 4.53 and a 1.476 WHIP, which took him from once promising Rookie of the Year to MLB afterthought.
In 1965, Jim Lefebvre won the NL Rookie of the Year award with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but in a six year span from 1967 to 1972, he batted a measly .245, had a -7 RAA, and averaged just 6 home runs.
Finally, while Jerome Walton won the NL Rookie of the Year award in 1989 with the Chicago Cubs, the rest of his career was a major disappointment. In his final 9 MLB seasons from 1990 to 1998, he averaged 1 home run, 10 RBI's, and a 0.2 WAR.
AL Rookie of the Year: Tampa Bay Rays OF Wil Myers
The Kansas City Royals have not been in the postseason since they won the World Series in 7 games over the St. Louis Cardinals in 1985 when Brett Saberhagen won the CY Young (20-6, 2.87 ERA, 1.058 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9) and Hall of Famer George Brett had one of his best ever seasons (.335 AVG, 30 HR, 112 RBI, .585 SLG, 1.022 OPS, 179 OPS+, 322 TB, 6.4 BW, 8.1 oWAR). When small market teams struggle over a long period of time and don't have a successful core of players, they typically try to become a consistent contender by building up through the draft and trading away some of their veterans for younger and possibly more valuable future assets in the form of minor league prospects. The Royals have pretty much followed this template over the past decade.
In 2004, Kansas City traded Carlos Beltran, who had won the AL Rookie of the Year with the Royals in 1999 and was a star in the making, in order to avoid losing Beltran and getting nothing in return when he became a free agent. The Royals shipped Beltran to the Astros in a three-team deal where Kansas City received John Buck and two top end prospects (Mike Wood and Mark Teahen, who at the time was considered one of the best young players in all of baseball). Also, in a 8-year span from 2005 to 2012, Kansas City had a top five pick every year except for 2009, and with their high draft slots and multitude of selections, the team was able to begin to build a nucleus around Alex Gordon (2nd overall pick in 2005), Luke Hochevar (1st overall pick in 2006), Mike Moustakas (2nd overall pick in 2007), Greg Holland (10th round pick in 2007), Eric Hosmer (3rd overall pick in 2008), and, of course, Wil Myers (3rd round pick in 2009).
With all that being said, it was confounding when the Royals traded Myers, who had developed into one of the best, if not the best, prospect in baseball, for James Shields and Wade Davis. Obviously, any team that fails to make the playoffs for nearly 30 years should rightfully become a little impatient, and James Shields is a very reliable workhorse who has pitched over 200 innings ever year since 2007 (Justin Verlander and Mark Buehrle are the only other pitches to do so). However, trading Myers seemed to be a little impetuous, as proven by the fact that he should win the 2013 AL Rookie of the Year award.
Myers showed that he could do a little bit of everything in his first MLB season. He hit .293 against left handed pitchers, but also batted .292 versus right hand pitching. Myers had a .351 OBP and a 121 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) at home, but was also very good on the road, as he batted .313 and had a .567 SLG in games away from Tropicana Field. The outfielder had a .390 wOBA (weighted on base average) with the bases empty, but also had a .310 batting average with runners in scoring position with a .925 OPS. Furthermore, while Myers led all AL rookies in wRAA (weighted runs above average) at 12.6 and wRC (weighted runs created) at 53, he did not commit an error in either right or center field for Tampa Bay. Myers was also a catalyst behind Tampa Bay's fourth postseason appearance in the last six years. The Rays began July with a 44-39 record, but in just his second month in the big leagues, Myers batted .352 and had a .963 OPS to propel the Rays to a 20-5 month and a very solid 64-45 record through July.
It was a particularly weak AL rookie class this season, especially coming off a year with Mike Trout, Yoenis Cespedes, and Yu Darvish. Wil Myers was the only AL rookie with at least 45 RBI's (last season Trout, Cespedes, Jesus Montero, and Will Middlebrooks all had more than 50 RBI's) and no AL rookie pitcher had more than 10 wins or a WAR of at least 2 (last year 7 AL rookies had more than 10 wins and at least a WAR of 2.) The top competitors to Myers in this pedestrian AL rookie class are Jose Iglesias and Chris Archer.
Looking to become the first ever Rookie of the Year in a season in which he played for two teams (Red Sox and Tigers), Iglesias showed why many people consider him to be the best defensive shortstop the majors have seen since Omar Vizquel or Ozzie Smith. Iglesias's 2.0 ErrR, which is according to fangraphs, "the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by the number of errors he makes as compared to an average fielder at that position given the same distribution, was the third highest amongst AL shortstops, only behind Yunel Escobar (a ridiculous 5.6 ErrR) and Jhonny Peralta (5.1 ErrR). Furthermore, Iglesias's 0.6 DPR, which is according to fangraphs, "the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, based on the number double plays versus the number forces at second they get, as compared to an average fielder at that position, given the speed and location of the ball and the handedness of the batter," was the fourth best amongst AL shortstops, behind Alexi Ramirez (league-leading 2.4 DPR), Alcides Escobar (0.9 DPR), and J.J. Hardy (0.9 DPR). The surprising thing about Iglesias this year though was the fact that he was such an effective hitter. Iggy batted .303, which was tied with Jhonny Peralta for the highest amongst American League shortstops with at least 350 plate appearances, and had a .349 on-base percentage, which was only behind Jhonny Peralta in OBP amongst AL shortstops with at least 350 plate appearances.
Meanwhile, in a year in which 2012 AL Cy Young winner David Price had only 10 wins, Jeremy Hellickson had a 5.17 ERA (only Edinson Volquez and Joe Saunders had a worse ERA), and Alex Cobb had to miss two months of the season to a head injury, Chris Archer was the Rays most consistent pitcher. In Archer's 23 starts this season, he allowed 2 or less runs in 16 of them, including in July when he went 4-0 with a 0.73 ERA in 5 games. After being called up to the majors on June 1, Archer held opponents to a .223 batting average, which was the 5th best in the AL only behind Yu Darvish (.193), Max Scherzer (.196), Matt Moore (.212), and Hisashi Iwakuma (.218).
Nonetheless, Myers should have no trouble running away with the AL Rookie of the Year award this season. Unlike some of the other top baseball prospects who have come from the minor leagues in the past, Myers looked like the same player in the big leagues as he did with Triple-A Durham. Like any other young ballplayer, the outfielder is still adjusting to the majors and the difficulties of facing top notch pitching every night (as shown by the fact that Myers batted .202 in a month stretch from August 2 to September 2 with 32 strikeouts). However, Myers's free-flowing swing and diverse range of field capabilities will only continue to improve, which means that the Rookie of the Year award is likely not going to be the only honor he receives in his MLB career.
NL Rookie of the Year: Miami Marlins P Jose Fernandez
When the Miami Marins traded Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, John Buck, and Emilio Bonifacio to the Toronto Blue Jays, they not only dumped nearly 170 million dollars in salary (96 million from Reyes's contract, 52 million from Buehrle's deal, 13.75 million from Johnson's contract, 6 million from Buck's deal, and 2.2 million from Bonifacio's contract), but they also lost an assortment of their fairweather fans. On the surface level, the trade was not a terrible one for the Marlins. They got rid of some excessive contracts with underachieving players, specifically Reyes, who hit just .287 in his first year with the Marlins despite having a contract that was paying him more than 17 million per year. Miami was also able to trade Johnson and Buck, who were in the last year of their contracts, before they left the Marlins in free agency. In return, the Marlins were able to stockpile some highly rated prospects and young players.
However, the problem with the move was more so the symbolic message that it sent to Marlins fans. The trade of some of the club's most noticeable players was effectively showing the fans that the team was no longer willing to spend money to make a contending team and thereby lost the interest of a variety of their supporters. By the end of the season, the Marlins lineup was littered with unknown players like Greg Dobbs, Donovan Solano, Ed Lucas, Mike Dunn, Jeff Mathis, and Marcell Ozuna. Nonetheless, rookie pitcher Jose Fernandez, who the Marlins took in the first round of the 2011 draft, was as electrifying as any pitcher in the MLB this year. Although he may need to to lighten up on his very animated pitching antics, Fernandez is a player that Marlins fans should definitely embrace, especially following his scintillating rookie campaign.
Fernandez's first year in the MLB was so good that we should look at some of the greatest rookie pitching seasons in the history of the big leagues for a point of comparison. While you could certainly make an argument for a panoply of names, the best ever rookie pitching season are likely Mark Fidrych's 1976 season with the Detroit Tigers, Fernando Valenzuela's 1981 year with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and Dwight Gooden's 1984 season with the New York Mets.
Fidrych, known as The Bird, will always be remembered for his entertaining but very outlandish and bizarre pitching antics. The Detroit pitcher would talk to the ball before he pitched, fix the mound with his hands, and shake the hands of teammates in the middle of the field as well as fans during the game. However, Fidrych's antics were only so entertaining and compelling to the fans because of how successful he was as a pitcher in his rookie season. The Bird, who won the AL Rookie of the Year and finished second to Jim Palmer in the AL Cy Young in 1976, led the major leagues with a 2.34 ERA, a 159 ERA+ (adjusted ERA for the pitcher's parks and the average ERA over the entire league), a 35 adjusted pitching runs (measures the number of runs a pitcher allows compared to the league average in a neutral park with an equivalent number of innings pitched), and a 4.04 adjusted pitching wins (measures a pitcher's contribution to a team's total wins).
Meanwhile, Fernando Valenzuela's rookie season in 1981, where he won both the Rookie of the Year Award and the Cy Young, has to be considered one of the greatest rookie pitching seasons of all-time. The young pitcher rejuvenated a Dodgers team that had missed the playoffs for two consecutive years and his quirky and awkward looking pitching style and his Latin American roots created a huge fan following around him, known as "Fernandomania." Valenzuela came out of nowhere and began the 1981 season with the craziest 8-game stretch in baseball history. The Mexican pitcher started the year 8-0 with 7 complete games, 5 shutouts, a 0.50 ERA, and a combined 4 runs allowed in 72 innings pitched. At the age of 20, Valenzuela took the baseball world by storm with the greatest start to a season in the history of the game and his 8 shutouts over the course of the season has only been eclipsed once in the last 33 years (John Tudor in 1985 with the St. Louis Cardinals).
Finally, Dwight Gooden is largely remembered for his 1985 season with the Mets, where he went 24-4 and had a 1.53 ERA, becoming the first pitcher in 66 years since 1919 to finish a season with an ERA under 1.60. However, what many people forget is the precursor to Gooden's phenomenal 1985 year, which came in his rookie season, where he was 17-9 with a 2.60 ERA and won the NL Rookie of the Year and finished 2nd in the NL Cy Young to Rick Sutcliffe. That year, Gooden had a league leading 276 strikeouts (more than he had in his historic 1985 season), which is still a record for a rookie pitcher, and was only eclipsed by three pitchers in the previous 13 years dating back to 1972 by Nolan Ryan (5 times), J.R. Richard (twice), and Steve Carlton (3 times). Gooden also became the first pitcher in 100 years to have a K/9 ratio above 11, which Henry Porter, Ed Cushman, and Lady Baldwin of the Milwaukee Brewers and The Only Nolan of the Wilmington Quicksteps all did in 1884.
However, Fernandez's first year in the big leagues deserves to be in the same conversation with Fidrych's, Valenzuela's, and Gooden's incredible rookie seasons. Fernandez was so good this year that if Clayton Kershaw didn't finish the season with a gaudy ERA of 1.83, the lowest since Pedro Martinez had a 1.74 ERA in 2000, he might have joined Valenzuela as the only pitchers to win both the Rookie of the Year and the Cy Young in the same season. The young star was at the top of the big leagues in almost every pitching category. His ERA of 2.19 was the second best in the majors, behind Kershaw, and his adjusted ERA+ of 176 was also the second best in the MLB, once again behind Kershaw. Fernandez became just the third pitcher since 1943 to have an ERA under 2.20 in his rookie season (minimum 160 innings pitched), joining both George Bradley of the 1968 St. Louis Brown Stockings and Jerry Koosman of the 1968 New York Mets, which were both done in the year of the pitcher. Fernandez allowed just 111 hits in 172 innings pitched, which averages out to a very impressive 5.8 H/9 ratio. Hit hits per 9 IP was the second best in a single-season since 1986, only behind Pedro Martinez in 2000, and the 11th best all-time. Fernandez was also 4th in WHIP at 0.979, behind Kershaw, Harvey, and Scherzer, 5th in K/9 at 9.75, behind Darvish, Scherzer, Sanchez, and Burnett, 2nd in adjusted pitching wins at 3.5, behind Kershaw, 4th in adjusted pitching runs at 30, behind Kershaw, Sanchez, and Darvish, and 4th in base-out runs saved at 33.09, behind Kershaw, Darvish, and Iwakuma. As good as the Cuban pitcher was throughout the season, he was at his absolute best in the latter half of the year. In Fernandez's 11 starts after the All-Star break, he was 7-1 with a 1.34 ERA and 88 strikeouts while holding opponents to a .164 batting average. The Marlins starter did not have one start over the second half of the year where he allowed more than 2 runs.
In most seasons, Yasiel Puig would be a sure-fire Rookie of the Year award winner, as no player has had a bigger impact on his team's success in the past several years than Puig. When the young Cuban star made his MLB debut with the Dodgers on June 3rd, Los Angeles was sitting at 23-32, 8.5 games behind the Diamondbacks despite having a payroll of over 215 million dollars. However, Puig's unique energy and dynamic play-making ability rejuvenated the entire Dodgers team, as LA manager Don Mattingly said, "I think the way Yasiel plays is really contagious for guys... His energy [is] infectious." After Puig joined the ball club, the Dodgers went 67-38 and finished the season 92-70, 11 games ahead of any other team in the NL West. Puig had 44 hits in his first month in the big leagues (a Dodger rookie record a month), which was the second most in a player's opening month in the majors, only behind Joe DiMaggio's 48 hits in May of 1936 with the New York Yankees. He also joined Joe DiMaggio as the only player to have at least 4 home runs and 40 hits in his first month in the MLB. Puig, who signed a 7-year, 42 million dollar contract with the Dodgers in 2012, finished the season with a .319 batting average and a 160 OPS+.
Despite the heroics of Yasiel Puig in Los Angeles and his direct impact on the team's first appearance in the postseason since 2009, Jose Fernandez's historic rookie season is deserving of the NL Rookie of the Year award. The Cuban pitcher has elite stuff with a mid-90's fastball that averages about around 95 MPH, but he also has a great secondary pitch with his curveball and can also mix in a change-up and a slider. There has been a lot of talk around baseball that Fernandez could be the next great MLB pitcher. However, the truth of the matter is, Fernandez is already one of the majors best pitchers.
Saturday, November 2, 2013
Fantasy Football Week 9 Preview
There
is no bigger fan attraction in American sports, and arguably all of
entertainment, than the National Football League. While the Thursday
night games on the NFL Network are certainly not the best representation
of what pro football has to offer (the lethargic Jets-Patriots week 2
game for example), NFL Sundays have become a larger than life spectacle.
Although serious concerns have begun to circulate about the safety of
football and the long-term effects of concussions on players, the NFL
has never been as popular as it is today. The league is in an age where
there are more quality quarterbacks than ever before (outside of
Jacksonville, Oakland, and Cleveland), and quarterbacks often have a
powerful impact on the following of the sport. Not only is the NFL
blessed with two of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time (Peyton
Manning and Tom Brady) and a panoply of Super Bowl winners (Eli Manning,
Aaron Rodgers, Drew Bress, Joe Flacco, and Ben Roethlisberger), but it
is also very fortunate to have its future lined up with a bevy of young
quarterback stars (Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Colin
Kaepernick, Andrew Luck). The NFL is likely in the mist of its best
quarterback era since the 1990's, a time when guys like John Elway, Dan
Marino, Warren Moon, Steve Young, Jim Kelly, Troy Aikman, and Brett
Favre were throwing around the football.
However, there is something that people have become more worried, obsessive, and neurotic about than actual football: fantasy football. The online contest has taken over the lives of countless Americans and become bigger than the game itself. I'm sure that there were an array of Redskins fans who were somewhat satisfied that Aaron Rodgers picked their defense apart for an easy 480 yards and 4 touchdowns in week 2 because he got them more than 30 fantasy points. How many Cardinals fans were faintly pleasured that Jimmy Graham had 134 yards and 2 touchdowns against their team in week 3? I'm assuming that the 10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans in all of Florida were even happy that their catastrophe of a team allowed 296 passing yards and 4 total touchdowns to Nick Foles in week 6. There is even a successful tv show based around a fantasy football league (The League). So, if you're a crazed fantasy football fanatic, here are some things to keep an eye on in week 9 of your season.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense at Buffalo Bills:
When last year's pro bowl rosters were announced, the biggest surprise to most fans wasn't the fact that both Richard Sherman (8 interceptions) and Alfred Morris (Redskins record 1,613 rushing yards) were left off the team, but that the Kansas City Chiefs had 6 pro bowlers despite going 2-14. However, outside of the Chiefs atrocious quarterback play (only John Skelton had a worst QB rating than Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn amongst quarterbacks that threw at least 175 passes), Kansas City actually had a lot of talent, especially on the defense side of the ball. Alex Smith's steadiness behind center (only 4 interceptions in 286 pass attempts) has brought new life to Kansas City this season, and the Chiefs stout defense is proving that it is more than capable of containing any offense in the NFL. With Dontari Poe clogging up the middle of the field, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali have been able to dominate off the edge in the Chiefs 3-4 scheme. The outside linebackers have combined for 20 sacks and 5 forced fumbles and are looking to become the first pair of teammates to each finish in the top 5 in the league in sacks since Adewale Ogunleye and Jason Taylor did so in 2003 with the Miami Dolphins. As we have seen in the past, a dominate pass rush can mask the weaknesses of a defensive secondary because of the constant pressure that a quarterback faces from a dominate defense front. The New York Giants 2007 and 2011 Super Bowl victories were characterized by a strong pass rush (Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora in 2007 and Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck in 2011) despite some definite holes that the team had in the secondary during both championship runs. However, the fact that Kansas City has a solid secondary makes it that much more difficult to avoid the pass rush because opposing quarterbacks have to hold onto the ball to find open receivers. With three of the leagues upper echelon defensive backs (Brandon Flowers, Sean Smith, and Daunta Robinson) and the crafty Eric Berry, the Chiefs are 4th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (205.8) and lead the league in points allowed per game (12.3). In fact, in 8 games, the Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 points. Thus, when an injury plagued Buffalo Bills team, who will likely be down to their third quarterback within the first 9 weeks of the season (Thad Lewis is listed as doubtful with a rib injury), take on the Chiefs, expect a big fantasy output from Kansas City's defense. The Chiefs, who have already had four fantasy games with at least 20 points, should be salivating knowing that they will likely be facing either Matt Flynn (somehow signed a 20.5 million dollar contract with the Seahawks after literally one good game, and then proceeded to get benched before the season even began) or Jeff Tuel (so bad against the Browns after replacing EJ Manuel that the Bills went to their practice squad QB). Expect more of the same this weekend in Buffalo: another performance by C.J. Spiller that makes you wonder why in the world you picked him in the first round before LeSean McCoy and Matt Forte and another dominating Chiefs defense showing.
Jake Locker vs the St. Louis Rams:
You won't get an argument from me if you think that last year's NFL draft will eventually go down in history as the best quarterback draft (Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brock Osweiler, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Kirk Cousins) since 1983 (John Elway, Todd Blackledge, Jim Kelly, Tony Eason, Ken O'Brien, Dan Marino). Due to the phenomenal quarterback play of some of the 2012 draftees, people have neglected to realize that the 2011 draft class has actually far exceeded expectations. Von Miller, Aldon Smith, and J.J. Watt are likely the three best pass rushers in the entire league and aside from Calvin Johnson, who is legitimately a transformer, A.J. Green and Julio Jones are arguably the most dynamic wide receivers in the NFL. Patrick Peterson is so talented and athletic that the Arizona Cardinals even play him on offense from time to time. However, what has added early credence to the argument that the 2011 draft class could be one of the best of all-time is that Jake Locker has been playing at a very high level this year. Locker is an extremely underrated fantasy option considering his dual threat capabilities in Tennessee's new offense under first year coordinator Dowell Loggains. In 5 starts this season, Locker has only thrown 1 interception and his passer rating of 97.1 is the 8th highest in the entire league. Locker's mobility also causes defenses a lot of trouble because he can escape the pocket and run for first downs. While he is still regaining strength in his right knee and hip, which he injured in week 4 against the Jets, Locker is a quarterback that can certainly run for a touchdown every few weeks. Furthermore, the Rams are a defense that Tennessee can definitely exploit. In the Titans 3 victories against the Steelers, Chargers, and Jets, the team ran for an average of 120 rushing yards. However, in their 4 losses against the Texans, Chiefs, Seahawks, and 49ers, the Titans averaged a measly 90 yards per contest. Locker is not a quarterback who is going to throw the ball 40-45 times in a game and pick apart a defense. However, with a solid run game, he can be very effective, especially with his scrambling ability. The Rams are a defense that ranks 27th in the league in rushing yards allowed (929 in 8 games) and their defense front of Chris Long, Kendall Langford, Michael Brockers, and Robert Quinn is nothing to fear. Tennessee's run game will likely find some success against St. Louis behind their massive offensive line with guys like Andy Levitre and Chance Warmack, which should thereby open up the field for Locker to have a big fantasy day.
Pierre Garcon vs the San Diego Chargers:
Anybody who has watched the Redskins this season could tell you that the team has a panoply of concerns, mainly the fact that their defense has allowed an average of 32.7 points per game through their first 7 contests. However, the Skins offense has people even more worried because the group has looked a shell of the team that finished at the top of the NFL in rushing yards in 2012. It is hard to argue the notion that the Washington Redskins entire offense dynamic changed after RGIII torn his ACL in last year's NFC divisional playoff round loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Despite the fact that Griffin has looked a little better each week on the field, it is evident that he lacks the explosiveness that made him such a weapon last season. The Skins obviously don't want to risk any future injures to Robert Griffin III, which has restricted their play calling to keeping RGIII in the pocket throwing the ball rather than allowing him to make plays down the field with his feet. Griffin has only had 2 games in which he ran the ball for at least 40 yards this season. The unpredictability of Washington's offense made it so difficult for defenses to defend both the run and the pass last season. Without the threat of RGIII keeping the ball on Washington's read option, defenses have been able to key on Alfred Morris, which has only allowed the back, who set the Redskins single-season rushing record last year, to have one game in which he ran for more than 95 yards. Washington has been throwing the ball much more from the pocket this season than last year, which should result in some big games for Pierre Garcon in the near future. Garcon has been very solid so far this year, but he has yet to break out for some bigger games. The wide out has had at least 58 yards in all but one of the Redskins matchups, but he's only been over the 100 yard barrier one time. However, Garcon is destined to have a breakout game this weekend against a sub-par San Diego secondary. Garcon is undoubtedly the Skins best receiving threat, as he has been targeted 78 times in 7 games, which is the 5th most in the NFL only behind A.J. Green, Vincent Jackson, Cecil Shorts, and Calvin Johnson. The balls are going to continue to come Garcon's way as Washington doesn't have any other real receiving options, which means he should have plenty of opportunities to make some plays. Unlike some other receivers, Garcon is also very crafty after he catches the ball, as his 276 yards after catch are the best for any wide receiver in the league. Washington's defense wouldn't be able to stop Jacksonville (that's saying something), so there should be a lot of points scored in the nation's capital this weekend. Meanwhile, Derek Cox or Shareece Wright will likely have the matchup with Garcon, both of whom Garcon should be able to take advantage of in the big week 9 game.
T.Y. Hilton vs the Houston Texans:
The Colts victory over the Denver Broncos could not have been much better from an Indianapolis perspective. The Colts fans got to rightfully celebrate and recognize the accomplishments of their beloved quarterback of 14 years in a very touching pre-game ceremony, and then they got to beat his undefeated team in route to a 5-2 start and a 2 game division lead in the AFC South. However, there was one thing in the game that could change the course of the entire NFL season: the devastating torn ACL suffered by Reggie Wayne. Wayne has been a steady presence in the Colts organization for 13 years and Sunday will mark the first game in an astonishing 15 years that the Colts will be taking the field without Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne in the lineup. Wayne has been by far Andrew Luck's favorite target over the past two seasons, as his 106 catches last year were only eclipsed by his 2010 campaign of 111 catches. In fact, Reggie had 46 more receptions than anybody else on the Colts team last season (Donnie Avery). Without Wayne on the field, the ball is going to have to go to somebody; step in T.Y. Hilton. Much like a DeSean Jackson or Mike Wallace, Hilton is a guy with blazing quickness and can break the lid off any NFL defense. However, Hilton and Luck have rarely been on the same page this season to create some big plays down the field in the passing game. In 5 of the Colts 7 games, Hilton has been held under 46 yards without a reception of more than 19 yards. However, in the other two games, Hilton had 124 yards including a 47 yard catch against the Dolphins and a 140 yard game with two touchdowns including a 73 yard reception versus the Seahawks. With Wayne out of the lineup and the Colts unable to create a productive running game despite the trade with the Browns for Trent Richardson, expect more of the latter than the former from Hilton. Hilton will likely get more opportunities to stretch the field this weekend against the Texans and he will therefore have more chances to make plays than ever before. Under defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, Houston like to play a lot of man-to-man defense with corner backs Kareem Jackson and Johnathan Joseph. For Hilton to break a big play loose, all he needs is a step on a defensive back and he could be gone with his rare speed.
However, there is something that people have become more worried, obsessive, and neurotic about than actual football: fantasy football. The online contest has taken over the lives of countless Americans and become bigger than the game itself. I'm sure that there were an array of Redskins fans who were somewhat satisfied that Aaron Rodgers picked their defense apart for an easy 480 yards and 4 touchdowns in week 2 because he got them more than 30 fantasy points. How many Cardinals fans were faintly pleasured that Jimmy Graham had 134 yards and 2 touchdowns against their team in week 3? I'm assuming that the 10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans in all of Florida were even happy that their catastrophe of a team allowed 296 passing yards and 4 total touchdowns to Nick Foles in week 6. There is even a successful tv show based around a fantasy football league (The League). So, if you're a crazed fantasy football fanatic, here are some things to keep an eye on in week 9 of your season.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense at Buffalo Bills:
When last year's pro bowl rosters were announced, the biggest surprise to most fans wasn't the fact that both Richard Sherman (8 interceptions) and Alfred Morris (Redskins record 1,613 rushing yards) were left off the team, but that the Kansas City Chiefs had 6 pro bowlers despite going 2-14. However, outside of the Chiefs atrocious quarterback play (only John Skelton had a worst QB rating than Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn amongst quarterbacks that threw at least 175 passes), Kansas City actually had a lot of talent, especially on the defense side of the ball. Alex Smith's steadiness behind center (only 4 interceptions in 286 pass attempts) has brought new life to Kansas City this season, and the Chiefs stout defense is proving that it is more than capable of containing any offense in the NFL. With Dontari Poe clogging up the middle of the field, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali have been able to dominate off the edge in the Chiefs 3-4 scheme. The outside linebackers have combined for 20 sacks and 5 forced fumbles and are looking to become the first pair of teammates to each finish in the top 5 in the league in sacks since Adewale Ogunleye and Jason Taylor did so in 2003 with the Miami Dolphins. As we have seen in the past, a dominate pass rush can mask the weaknesses of a defensive secondary because of the constant pressure that a quarterback faces from a dominate defense front. The New York Giants 2007 and 2011 Super Bowl victories were characterized by a strong pass rush (Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora in 2007 and Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck in 2011) despite some definite holes that the team had in the secondary during both championship runs. However, the fact that Kansas City has a solid secondary makes it that much more difficult to avoid the pass rush because opposing quarterbacks have to hold onto the ball to find open receivers. With three of the leagues upper echelon defensive backs (Brandon Flowers, Sean Smith, and Daunta Robinson) and the crafty Eric Berry, the Chiefs are 4th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (205.8) and lead the league in points allowed per game (12.3). In fact, in 8 games, the Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 points. Thus, when an injury plagued Buffalo Bills team, who will likely be down to their third quarterback within the first 9 weeks of the season (Thad Lewis is listed as doubtful with a rib injury), take on the Chiefs, expect a big fantasy output from Kansas City's defense. The Chiefs, who have already had four fantasy games with at least 20 points, should be salivating knowing that they will likely be facing either Matt Flynn (somehow signed a 20.5 million dollar contract with the Seahawks after literally one good game, and then proceeded to get benched before the season even began) or Jeff Tuel (so bad against the Browns after replacing EJ Manuel that the Bills went to their practice squad QB). Expect more of the same this weekend in Buffalo: another performance by C.J. Spiller that makes you wonder why in the world you picked him in the first round before LeSean McCoy and Matt Forte and another dominating Chiefs defense showing.
Jake Locker vs the St. Louis Rams:
You won't get an argument from me if you think that last year's NFL draft will eventually go down in history as the best quarterback draft (Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brock Osweiler, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Kirk Cousins) since 1983 (John Elway, Todd Blackledge, Jim Kelly, Tony Eason, Ken O'Brien, Dan Marino). Due to the phenomenal quarterback play of some of the 2012 draftees, people have neglected to realize that the 2011 draft class has actually far exceeded expectations. Von Miller, Aldon Smith, and J.J. Watt are likely the three best pass rushers in the entire league and aside from Calvin Johnson, who is legitimately a transformer, A.J. Green and Julio Jones are arguably the most dynamic wide receivers in the NFL. Patrick Peterson is so talented and athletic that the Arizona Cardinals even play him on offense from time to time. However, what has added early credence to the argument that the 2011 draft class could be one of the best of all-time is that Jake Locker has been playing at a very high level this year. Locker is an extremely underrated fantasy option considering his dual threat capabilities in Tennessee's new offense under first year coordinator Dowell Loggains. In 5 starts this season, Locker has only thrown 1 interception and his passer rating of 97.1 is the 8th highest in the entire league. Locker's mobility also causes defenses a lot of trouble because he can escape the pocket and run for first downs. While he is still regaining strength in his right knee and hip, which he injured in week 4 against the Jets, Locker is a quarterback that can certainly run for a touchdown every few weeks. Furthermore, the Rams are a defense that Tennessee can definitely exploit. In the Titans 3 victories against the Steelers, Chargers, and Jets, the team ran for an average of 120 rushing yards. However, in their 4 losses against the Texans, Chiefs, Seahawks, and 49ers, the Titans averaged a measly 90 yards per contest. Locker is not a quarterback who is going to throw the ball 40-45 times in a game and pick apart a defense. However, with a solid run game, he can be very effective, especially with his scrambling ability. The Rams are a defense that ranks 27th in the league in rushing yards allowed (929 in 8 games) and their defense front of Chris Long, Kendall Langford, Michael Brockers, and Robert Quinn is nothing to fear. Tennessee's run game will likely find some success against St. Louis behind their massive offensive line with guys like Andy Levitre and Chance Warmack, which should thereby open up the field for Locker to have a big fantasy day.
Pierre Garcon vs the San Diego Chargers:
Anybody who has watched the Redskins this season could tell you that the team has a panoply of concerns, mainly the fact that their defense has allowed an average of 32.7 points per game through their first 7 contests. However, the Skins offense has people even more worried because the group has looked a shell of the team that finished at the top of the NFL in rushing yards in 2012. It is hard to argue the notion that the Washington Redskins entire offense dynamic changed after RGIII torn his ACL in last year's NFC divisional playoff round loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Despite the fact that Griffin has looked a little better each week on the field, it is evident that he lacks the explosiveness that made him such a weapon last season. The Skins obviously don't want to risk any future injures to Robert Griffin III, which has restricted their play calling to keeping RGIII in the pocket throwing the ball rather than allowing him to make plays down the field with his feet. Griffin has only had 2 games in which he ran the ball for at least 40 yards this season. The unpredictability of Washington's offense made it so difficult for defenses to defend both the run and the pass last season. Without the threat of RGIII keeping the ball on Washington's read option, defenses have been able to key on Alfred Morris, which has only allowed the back, who set the Redskins single-season rushing record last year, to have one game in which he ran for more than 95 yards. Washington has been throwing the ball much more from the pocket this season than last year, which should result in some big games for Pierre Garcon in the near future. Garcon has been very solid so far this year, but he has yet to break out for some bigger games. The wide out has had at least 58 yards in all but one of the Redskins matchups, but he's only been over the 100 yard barrier one time. However, Garcon is destined to have a breakout game this weekend against a sub-par San Diego secondary. Garcon is undoubtedly the Skins best receiving threat, as he has been targeted 78 times in 7 games, which is the 5th most in the NFL only behind A.J. Green, Vincent Jackson, Cecil Shorts, and Calvin Johnson. The balls are going to continue to come Garcon's way as Washington doesn't have any other real receiving options, which means he should have plenty of opportunities to make some plays. Unlike some other receivers, Garcon is also very crafty after he catches the ball, as his 276 yards after catch are the best for any wide receiver in the league. Washington's defense wouldn't be able to stop Jacksonville (that's saying something), so there should be a lot of points scored in the nation's capital this weekend. Meanwhile, Derek Cox or Shareece Wright will likely have the matchup with Garcon, both of whom Garcon should be able to take advantage of in the big week 9 game.
T.Y. Hilton vs the Houston Texans:
The Colts victory over the Denver Broncos could not have been much better from an Indianapolis perspective. The Colts fans got to rightfully celebrate and recognize the accomplishments of their beloved quarterback of 14 years in a very touching pre-game ceremony, and then they got to beat his undefeated team in route to a 5-2 start and a 2 game division lead in the AFC South. However, there was one thing in the game that could change the course of the entire NFL season: the devastating torn ACL suffered by Reggie Wayne. Wayne has been a steady presence in the Colts organization for 13 years and Sunday will mark the first game in an astonishing 15 years that the Colts will be taking the field without Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne in the lineup. Wayne has been by far Andrew Luck's favorite target over the past two seasons, as his 106 catches last year were only eclipsed by his 2010 campaign of 111 catches. In fact, Reggie had 46 more receptions than anybody else on the Colts team last season (Donnie Avery). Without Wayne on the field, the ball is going to have to go to somebody; step in T.Y. Hilton. Much like a DeSean Jackson or Mike Wallace, Hilton is a guy with blazing quickness and can break the lid off any NFL defense. However, Hilton and Luck have rarely been on the same page this season to create some big plays down the field in the passing game. In 5 of the Colts 7 games, Hilton has been held under 46 yards without a reception of more than 19 yards. However, in the other two games, Hilton had 124 yards including a 47 yard catch against the Dolphins and a 140 yard game with two touchdowns including a 73 yard reception versus the Seahawks. With Wayne out of the lineup and the Colts unable to create a productive running game despite the trade with the Browns for Trent Richardson, expect more of the latter than the former from Hilton. Hilton will likely get more opportunities to stretch the field this weekend against the Texans and he will therefore have more chances to make plays than ever before. Under defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, Houston like to play a lot of man-to-man defense with corner backs Kareem Jackson and Johnathan Joseph. For Hilton to break a big play loose, all he needs is a step on a defensive back and he could be gone with his rare speed.
Friday, September 6, 2013
USA-Costa Rica 2014 CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying Preview
World Cup Backgrounds:
From 1950 to 1990, the United States failed to make an astonishing 9 World Cups in a row, including two of which that were held right in their geographical region (Mexico in 1970 and 1986). America, a nation known for its power, need for supremacy, and superiority, failed to put its own soccer team in the World Cup for more than 40 years. To put in perspective just how staggering that fact is, over that time span, Netherlands, a nation whose total area is analogous to Maryland, made two consecutive World Cup Finals appearances in 1974 and 1978 (lost to West Germany 2-1 in 1974 and Argentina 3-1 in 1978). However, the US have put American soccer back on the right track over the past 20 years, as the team has been in every World Cup since 1990, including an impressive quarterfinal appearance in 2002 (lost 1-0 to eventual finalist Germany). Nonetheless, in a nation where if you're not first, you're last, American soccer is looking to step into the international forefront with a run in Brazil in 2014.
On the other side of the field, Costa Rica has made 2 of the last 3 World Cups and 3 of the past 6 tournaments, which is fairly impressive for a nation whose entry to qualify for the World Cup was denied in 1954 and who didn't make their first appearance in the world's greatest soccer stage until 1990. Nonetheless, in 1990, the Ticos did advance to the knockout stage of the World Cup, becoming the first CONCACAF team aside from Mexico to reach the final 16 since Cuba in the 1938 tournament held in France. After missing out on the last World Cup in South Africa by losing their inter-confederation playoff to CONMEBOL side Uruguay, Jorge Luis Pinto will be looking to guide the Costa Ricans back into the World Cup.
Game Context:
Coming into the game, the United States and Costa Rica sit atop the CONCACAF standings after 6 rounds of play and 4 matches still remaining. With the top three teams in the Hexagonal securing direct entry into the World Cup, the US and Costa Rica look to be in a prime position for qualification. In fact, with a victory and a Mexico-Honduras draw and a Panama lose or tie to Jamaica, the United States could officially qualify for the World Cup. Following their encounter with Costa Rica, the USMNT still have to play Mexico and Jamaica at home in Columbus and Kansas City respectively before traveling to Panama for their final game in the Hex. Costa Rica is scheduled to visit Jamaica and Honduras before finishing qualification back in San Jose against Mexico.
2014 CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying Standings Entering The US-Costa Rica Game:
1. United States: 4-1-1, 13 points (+4 GD) [W: Costa Rica, Jamaica, Panama, Honduras; T: Mexico; L: Honduras]
2. Costa Rica: 3-2-1, 11 points (+4 GD) [W: Jamaica, Honduras, Panama; T: Panama, Mexico; L: United States]
3. Mexico: 1-5-0, 8 points (+1 GD) [W: Jamaica; T: Jamaica, Honduras, United States, Panama, Costa Rica]
4. Honduras: 2-1-3, 7 points (-1 GD) [W: United States, Jamaica; T: Mexico; L: Panama, Costa Rica, United States]
5. Panama: 1-3-2, 6 points (-2 GD) [W: Honduras; T: Costa Rica, Jamaica, Mexico; L: United States, Costa Rica]
6. Jamaica: 0-2-4, 2 points (-6 GD) [T: Mexico, Panama; L: Costa Rica, Mexico, Untied States, Honduras]
From 1950 to 1990, the United States failed to make an astonishing 9 World Cups in a row, including two of which that were held right in their geographical region (Mexico in 1970 and 1986). America, a nation known for its power, need for supremacy, and superiority, failed to put its own soccer team in the World Cup for more than 40 years. To put in perspective just how staggering that fact is, over that time span, Netherlands, a nation whose total area is analogous to Maryland, made two consecutive World Cup Finals appearances in 1974 and 1978 (lost to West Germany 2-1 in 1974 and Argentina 3-1 in 1978). However, the US have put American soccer back on the right track over the past 20 years, as the team has been in every World Cup since 1990, including an impressive quarterfinal appearance in 2002 (lost 1-0 to eventual finalist Germany). Nonetheless, in a nation where if you're not first, you're last, American soccer is looking to step into the international forefront with a run in Brazil in 2014.
On the other side of the field, Costa Rica has made 2 of the last 3 World Cups and 3 of the past 6 tournaments, which is fairly impressive for a nation whose entry to qualify for the World Cup was denied in 1954 and who didn't make their first appearance in the world's greatest soccer stage until 1990. Nonetheless, in 1990, the Ticos did advance to the knockout stage of the World Cup, becoming the first CONCACAF team aside from Mexico to reach the final 16 since Cuba in the 1938 tournament held in France. After missing out on the last World Cup in South Africa by losing their inter-confederation playoff to CONMEBOL side Uruguay, Jorge Luis Pinto will be looking to guide the Costa Ricans back into the World Cup.
Game Context:
Coming into the game, the United States and Costa Rica sit atop the CONCACAF standings after 6 rounds of play and 4 matches still remaining. With the top three teams in the Hexagonal securing direct entry into the World Cup, the US and Costa Rica look to be in a prime position for qualification. In fact, with a victory and a Mexico-Honduras draw and a Panama lose or tie to Jamaica, the United States could officially qualify for the World Cup. Following their encounter with Costa Rica, the USMNT still have to play Mexico and Jamaica at home in Columbus and Kansas City respectively before traveling to Panama for their final game in the Hex. Costa Rica is scheduled to visit Jamaica and Honduras before finishing qualification back in San Jose against Mexico.
2014 CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying Standings Entering The US-Costa Rica Game:
1. United States: 4-1-1, 13 points (+4 GD) [W: Costa Rica, Jamaica, Panama, Honduras; T: Mexico; L: Honduras]
2. Costa Rica: 3-2-1, 11 points (+4 GD) [W: Jamaica, Honduras, Panama; T: Panama, Mexico; L: United States]
3. Mexico: 1-5-0, 8 points (+1 GD) [W: Jamaica; T: Jamaica, Honduras, United States, Panama, Costa Rica]
4. Honduras: 2-1-3, 7 points (-1 GD) [W: United States, Jamaica; T: Mexico; L: Panama, Costa Rica, United States]
5. Panama: 1-3-2, 6 points (-2 GD) [W: Honduras; T: Costa Rica, Jamaica, Mexico; L: United States, Costa Rica]
6. Jamaica: 0-2-4, 2 points (-6 GD) [T: Mexico, Panama; L: Costa Rica, Mexico, Untied States, Honduras]
Thursday, August 29, 2013
The Top 10 Most Intriguing College Football Games Of The 2013 Season
After 15 years of constant debate and discussion and more controversy than an Amanda Bynes tweet or a Kendrick Lamar verse, the BCS is finally in its final year of existence (college football will move to a playoff starting in 2014). While the BCS has certainly had a prodigious amount of flaws (secluding teams outside of the AQ-conferences from playing in major bowl games, putting in rules seasons after they actually apply [Kansas St. Rule], revenue sharing amongst conferences), it has at least given college football the most exciting regular season in all of sports. Unlike college basketball where an eleven loss team can win the National Championship (the 1987-1988 "Danny and the Miracles" Kansas Jayhawks), one loss in a college football season can eliminate a team from title contention, which makes every week of the season a thrilling must win scenario. While the BCS setup obviously doesn't provide anywhere near the excitement of the college basketball postseason, it lends itself to a riveting and captivating regular season. In its last hurrah, the BCS will once again showcase some of the most scintillating regular season college football games for its fans. Here are the top 10 most intriguing contests of the season.
# 5 Georgia at #8 Clemson on August 31:
One of the many downfalls of the BCS has been the fact that many of the top teams in college football have avoided playing quality opponents in the non-conference. While out of conference rivalry games like Notre Dame-USC, Florida St.-Florida, and South Carolina-Clemson have still been contested over the years, teams in the powerhouse conferences (such as the SEC and Big 12) have seen little value in tough non-conference scheduling with an already grueling conference slate. For example, Texas A&M's four non-conference games this season are against Rice, Sam Houston St., SMU, and UTEP, whose players will likely be so out of place that they might ask Johnny Manziel for his autograph. However, college football may have one of its best games of the season before September even begins, as Georgia and Clemson, preseason top 10 teams, are both legitimate National Championship contenders. Georgia, who were just 5 yards and an unintentional catch away from an SEC Championship and a berth in the BCS title game last year, return nearly their entire offense from a team that ranked third in the SEC in points per game at 37.8. While Aaron Murray is the leader of the offense with his poise and leadership, Todd Gurley is a definite Heisman sleeper. The tail back will be running behind the exact same offense line as last season, which features Dallas Lee and all-conference guard Chris Burnette. Gurley, who finished with 1,385 yards in his freshman season and became the 3rd freshman running back in Georgia history along with Herschel Walker in 1980 and Knowshon Moreno in 2007 to eclipse the 1,000 yard mark in their first year in Athens, will be a handful for the Clemson defense. However, if the game turns into a shootout, the Clemson offense will be more then ready. Last season, Clemson quarterback Tajh Boyd was in the top 5 in the country in yards per attempt (9.1), touchdowns (36), and quarterback rating (165.6), and his ability to move around the pocket with his feet gives his receivers extra time down the field. Clemson also has the most talented wide receiver in the country, outside of Marqise Lee at USC, in Sammy Watkins. Despite his off the field troubles last year, Watkins's ability is undeniable and how Georgia's cornerbacks, Darius Robinson and Bashaud Breeland, deal with his athleticism could determine the outcome of the game.
#6 South Carolina at #5 Georgia on September 7:
You will be hard-pressed to find another team in the last ten years of college football to open up their season in back-to-back weeks against top 10 opponents like the Georgia Dawgs have to do this season. After traveling to Death Valley, the Bulldogs return home to face death himself (just ask Vincent Smith) in Jadeveon Clowney. Clowney, who Georgia coach Mark Reicht says "is the best football player in the world," is the consensus top prospect in college football and could become the first pure defensive player to ever win the Heisman Trophy (cornerback Charles Woodson won the award in 1997 but he was also a prolific kick and punt returner). Clowney is a freak-of-nature and a once in a decade kind of defensive pass rusher. Last season, Clowney set South Carolina single season records in sacks (13) and tackles for a loss (23.5) and he is nearly impossible to block one-on-one for any college tackle. The defensive end possesses the rare combination of quickness and incredible strength, which is why he is often compared to former number one overall pick Mario Williams. Georgia will have to figure out a way to block Clowney whether it be keeping their tight end on the offensive line as an extra blocker or sending numerous double teams his way because in the Gamecocks last two victories over Georgia, Clowney has had 3 sacks and 6 solo tackles. While Clowney commands a lot of attention (and for good reason), Connor Shaw is going to have to make some plays for the South Carolina offense. Although Shaw's accuracy is underrated, his ability to run for first downs and keep the defense off balance is what caused Georgia so much trouble last season. South Carolina or Georgia have represented the SEC East in the conference title game the past three seasons, and the winner of this year's battle at Sanford Stadium should be in the driver's seat for the 2013 divisional crown.
#1 Alabama at #7 Texas A&M on September 14:
There is no doubt that the Alabama-Texas A&M showdown in Tuscaloosa was the best game of the college football season last year, as the clash had all the ingredients of an instant classic. First, the game featured a title contender, which put the battle in the national spotlight. Going into the conference matchup, Alabama was 9-0 and was looking to become the first team since Nebraska (1994-1995, 1997) to win three national championships in four years and the first team since USC (2003-2004) to repeat as college football title winners. The showdown also featured the compelling storyline of a new team coming into the very difficult and rugged Southeastern Conference. Most people assumed that it would take Texas A&M a few years to get accustomed to the physicality and toughness of the SEC. Although the Aggies went into the game against Bama with a 4-2 conference record, they lost to the two SEC powerhouses they played (Florida and LSU) earlier on in the season. Thus, the Aggies victory over Alabama was the all the more important because it proved that they belonged in the arduous SEC and that they could play with the best teams in the country. Finally, the game featured an incredible Heisman Trophy performance from Johnny Manziel. Not only did Manziel run for 92 yards, but he also was 24 for 31 throwing the football with 253 yards and 2 touchdowns including a wild TD pass where the freshman QB fumbled the ball, scrambled around the pocket, and then threw to a wide open Ryan Swope in the end zone. With the cloud over Manziel's eligibility no longer a dilemma (Manziel is only suspended for the first half of Texas A&M first game against Rice), the Alabama-Texas A&M rematch in College Station could once again be the game of the season. While the Aggies do have the Heisman Trophy winner returning at quarterback, the question marks surrounding Manziel's leadership will loom over him for the entire season. Obviously, Manziel was constantly in the spotlight following the 2012 season, and he did not handle himself in the most positive fashion. The quarterback's negligence surrounding his autograph signings and his departure from the Manning Passing Academy highlighted his immaturity. Nonetheless, Manziel is a very special quarterback, as his ability to move around in the pocket, coupled with his throwing touch, is nearly impossible to find in college football. Alabama will have to do a much better job containing Manziel if they want to avenge their only loss from last season. While the Tide do have some overhaul on their defensive line, the team's secondary is very similar to the one last season that allowed just 173.6 passing yards per game (best in the SEC). However, the key for Bama against the Aggies will likely be their linebacking core. Led by 2012 All-American C. J. Mosley, the Tide will have to make sure that Manziel doesn't get out of the pocket, where he can extend plays and move the chains with his feet or with his arm. Although the Manziel penalty is another example of the feebleness, incompetence, and languor of the NCAA, the ruling does allow for an unbelievable game in College Station.
#16 Oklahoma at #14 Notre Dame on September 28:
Oklahoma and Notre Dame have a lot more in common then you may think. First off, both schools are two of the most accomplished programs in the history of college football, as only Alabama has won more National Championships than the Fighting Irish and the Sooners since the poll era began in 1936 (Alabama has 10 titles, while Notre Dame has 8 National Championships, including 4 in a 7 year span from 1943 to 1949 and Oklahoma has 7 titles including back-to-back championships in 1955-1956 and 1974-1975). Coming into this season, both schools have to replace very successful starting quarterbacks although for very different reasons. The Sooners need to find a successor to Landry Jones, who set Oklahoma school records in career passing yards (16,646), completions (1,388), and touchdowns (123) and finished with a 39-11 record in four years as a starter at the school. Notre Dame have to replace Everett Golson (suspended for the season), who led the Fighting Irish to their first National Championship game in the BCS era (since 1998). Finally, while both schools have some very high level starters returning on the defensive side of the ball (2012 All-Big 12 First Team cornerback Aaron Colvin for Oklahoma and 2012 First Team AP All-American defensive tackle Stephon Tuitt for Notre Dame), both teams will need to find players to fill the shoes of players that moved on to the NFL like Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te'o (2nd in the 2012 Heisman Trophy voting, the highest finish for an exclusively defensive player since Hugh Green of Pittsburgh in 1980) and Sooners cornerback Tony Jefferson. First and foremost however, if both programs want to find success in 2013, they will have to get consistent quarterback play. The Fighting Irish are going to go with Tommy Rees as their starter. Rees, who started every game for Notre Dame in their 8-5 season in 2011, has no where near the explosive capabilities of Everett Golson. Furthermore, Rees lacks the mobility that Golson possesses and the arm strength, but he has shown that he can be a steady presence behind center, which is what Notre Dame is going to need out of him. In Norman, Blake Bell and Trevor Knight are still in a quarterback battle despite that fact that Oklahoma opens up their season in less than 2 weeks, but most people think that Bell will eventually come out as the starter. "The bulldozer" is a physical specimen and has shown his strength the last two years in goal line packages, as Bell had 13 rushing touchdowns his freshman year and 11 last year, which puts him on pace to break Oklahoma's career rushing touchdowns record by a quarterback. Despite his running prowess, Bell has only completed 10 passes in two years at the school (albeit as a backup) and will have to prove to defenses that he can throw the ball down the field in order to open up his downhill running ability.
#3 Oregon at #4 Stanford on November 7:
USC dominated the Pac-10 for so many years during the 2000's that it became almost a forgone conclusion that the Trojans would be in the National Championship picture at the end of the year. From 2002 to 2008, Southern Cal had a combined record of 80-9 and won 7 straight Pac-10 titles (to put that in perspective, Cal is the only team in Pac-10 history to win more than 3 consecutive conference titles). In that 7-year span under Pete Carroll, not only did USC have three Hesiman Trophy winners (Carson Palmer in 2002, Matt Leinart in 2004, and Reggie Bush in 2005), but they also made 7 straight BCS Bowl games and were co-champions in 2003 with LSU, sole champions in 2004 after a 55-19 blowout win over Oklahoma, and runner's up in 2005 after a 41-38 loss to Texas in one of the greatest games in college football history. However, things have changed out west over the past 4 years, especially after the departure of Pete Carroll to the NFL. Oregon, with their flashy uniforms and high tempo offense, became the first team since Ohio St. to appear in four straight BCS bowl games, and in 2010, the Ducks narrowly lost the in BCS National Championship Game to the Auburn Tigers. Stanford has also enjoyed an unprecedented amount of success over the past few years. The Cardinals, who from 1981 to 2008 had 21 losing seasons and just 7 winning seasons, have made three consecutive BCS bowl appearances. Stanford's 2013 Rose Bowl victory over Wisconsin was the school's first win in "the grandadday of them all" in 41 years since a 13-12 victory over Michigan in 1972. With USC outside of the preseason top 25 for the first time in 12 years since 2001 and Oregon and Stanford in the top 5, expect more of the same in the Pac-12. While Oregon return 15 of their starters from last season's 12-1 team, the Ducks will have a very different feel without Chip Kelly on the sidelines. Kelly, who left Oregon for the Philadelphia Eagles, was an offensive mastermind in Eugene, as the Ducks fast paced offense averaged 44.65 points per game in Kelly's four seasons in the northwest. Although replacing Kelly will not be easy, Mark Helfrich is inheriting a loaded Oregon offense. Pac-12 Offensive Freshman of the Year Marcos Mariota is the perfect quarterback for Oregon's spread offense, as he keeps the defense honest on the read option with his outstanding quickness. The Hawaiian native is also a very underrated passer, as Mariota threw 32 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions in his first year in the Pac-12. The Ducks also have the biggest home run threat in the entire country with their skilled running back and returner De'Anthony Thomas. Arguably the fastest player in the country, Thomas averaged nearly 8 yards per run and almost 10 yards per catch in a 16 touchdown sophomore season that showed his ability to break almost any play for a touchdown. On the other side of the field, Stanford have one of the most efficent quarterback in the country in Kevin Hogan. After taking over the starting job from Josh Nunes last season, Hogan had a 6-0 record, which included victories over four ranked teams and was highlighted by Stanford's overtime win over undefeated Oregon. With a team that loves to pound the football behind a huge offensive line (which is returning all-american tackle David Yankey), Hogan is very smart with the football, as he threw just 3 interceptions in over 150 passes last season. Although a lot can happen in a football season, do not be surprised to see an undefeated showdown in Palo Alto between Oregon and Stanford on November 7th.
#12 LSU at #1 Alabama on November 9:
There has not been a better college football game over the past 5 years than the LSU-Alabama clashes in the SEC West. In 2008, undefeated and top ranked Alabama needed overtime to beat LSU in a wild game that featured a blocked Crimson Tide fied goal at the end of regulation from just 29 yards away. In 2009, in their first of five straight top 10 battles, Alabama knocked off the Tigers for the second year in a row, the first time the school had won the rivalry game two consecutive seasons since 1998-1999. The following year, LSU got a measure of revenge, as Les Miles and the Tigers beat Nick Saban's Crimson Tide for the first time since 2007 in a 24-21 win in Baton Rouge. Despite the rivalry's newfound vigor in Nick Saban's first few years in Tuscaloosa, the LSU-Alabama game has managed to somehow intensify itself over the past two seasons. In 2011, in what many pundits dubbed as the latest "game of the century" due to the fact that it was college football's first regular season matchup between the top two teams in the nation since Michigan and Ohio St. in 2006, LSU beat Alabama in a defensive struggle 9-6 in overtime. However, the teams met again in the BCS National Championship Game and the tides were turned (no pun intended), as Alabama shutout the Tigers 21-0. Last season, in the latest matchup between the teams with National Championship implications, AJ McCarron engineered a 72-yard game winning drive with 51 seconds remaining to help the top ranked Crimson Tide edge past the Tigers. Once again this year, the LSU-Alabama matchup will be one of the most significant games of the entire season. Alabama could have the best college football team since the 2001 Miami Hurricane squad that featured Ken Dorsey, Clinton Portis, Willis McGahee, Frank Gore, Jeremy Shockey, Kellen Winslow Jr., Andre Johnson, Bryant McKinnie, D.J. Williams, Jonathan Vilma, Sean Taylor, Antrel Rolle, and Ed Reed (just to name a few). If the Tide do have a question mark, it is their offensive line. Anybody who watched the BCS National Championship Game last year could tell you just how dominant Alabama's line was against Notre Dame, as the Bama running backs were constantly getting into the second tier of the Fighting Irish defense without even getting touched due to the massive push from their offensive line. However, Alabama lost All-American guard Chance Warmack, two time All-American guard and center Barrett Jones, and All-American tackle D. J. Fluker to the NFL, and will thus have to replace a significant portion of one of the best offensive lines in college football history. While the Alabama line may not be as overpowering as it has been the past few years, it is blocking for another supremely talented Bama running back in T.J. Yeldon. As good as Eddie Lacy was last season for the Crimson Tide, Yeldon, who set the Alabama freshman record in yards (1,108) and tied the school record in touchdowns as a freshman (12), caught the eye of fans across the country. Unlike some of the recent power backs from the Crimson Tide like Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, Eddie Lacy, Yeldon is more of a speed back and can turn any play into major yardage. On the other side of the field, while LSU is losing a majority of their defensive starters including Barkevious Mingo, Sam Montgomery, and Eric Reid, the Tigers should still be very solid defensively, as the team has only had one season since 2002 in which they allowed more than 20 points per game, which was in 2008. If former Ravens offensive coordinator Cam Cameron can help Zach Mettenberger become more then just an average quarterback that doesn't make a lot of mistakes, the Tigers could be one of the most underrated teams in the nation heading into this season.
#13 Oklahoma St. at #15 Texas on November 16:
One of the best games of the college football season is typically the Red River Rivalry between Texas and Oklahoma. The two schools have combined for 11 national championships (7 for Oklahoma and 4 for Texas), 75 conference titles (43 for Oklahoma and 32 for Texas), 7 Heisman Trophy Winners (Bill Vessels in 1952, Steve Owens in 1969, Billy Sims in 1978, Jason White in 2003, and Sam Bradford in 2008 for Oklahoma and Earl Campbell in 1977 and Ricky Williams in 1998 for Texas), and 1 legendary rivalry game. However, there has been another matchup the last few years that has dwarfed the Red River Rivalry: the Texas-Oklahoma St. game. In 2011, Oklahoma beat Texas by 38 points in the largest blowout in the rivalry since a 2003 65-13 Oklahoma smashing. That same year, the Cowboys and the Longhorns, both top 25 teams at the time, played a thrilling game in Austin, which featured a 100 yard kickoff return by Foswhitt Whittaker and a 74 yard run by Jeremy Smith in the same quarter. Last year, Oklahoma once again dominated Texas, as the Sooners won 63-21 in Dallas, the 5th biggest blowout in the 107 year history of the historic game (only in 1908, 1956, 2000, 2003 were their bigger blowouts). In comparison, Texas and Oklahom St. played the most electrifying game of the Big 12 season last year, as the Longhorns knocked off the Cowboys 41-36 in a game that featured 77 points, including 35 in the first quarter. Oklahoma St. and Texas figure to be the top two teams in the Big 12 this season, which means that their game in Austin figures to be not only the most exciting game in the conference, but also very significant in terms of what Big 12 team will represent the league in the BCS. For Texas, longtime head coach Mack Brown is in a make or break year. Brown, who has been at UT since 1998 (the longest longest tenured coach in FBS besides Frank Beamer at Virginia Tech and Larry Blakeney at Troy), obviously has had a lot of success at the school, taking Texas to 4 BCS Bowl games (2004, 2005, 2008, 2009) including a National Championship in 2005 with Vince Young. However, in the last three years, the Longhorns have not had a season of more than 9 wins, and their 22-16 record over that span is the worst three year record for the Longhorns since they went 16-16 from 1991-1993 under John Mackovic. Fortunately for Mack Brown, Texas is returning 19 starters (tied for the most in the country with Bowling Green, Indiana, Miami, and UTSA) including their starting quarterback David Ash. Ash was very solid last season behind center, as he avoided throwing an interception in 7 of his 12 starts and only had 3 games where he had more than 8 incompletions. However, for Texas to have their best season since they went to the National Championship in 2009 with Colt McCoy, Ash has to improve against better opponents like Oklahoma, where he was 13 for 29 with 113 yards and 2 interceptions in the game last year. For Oklahoma State, their offense is going to put up a lot of points like they always do, no matter if J.W. Walsh or Clint Chelf is starting. In the last three years under Mike Gundy, the Cowboys have been in the top 5 in both yards per game and points per game offensively. The question that will define the Cowboys season is how their defense will play against an offense with the explosive of Texas. If Oklahoma St. can improve their defense, which allowed only 24 points per game at home last season, Mike Gundy could lead the Cowboys to their 3rd double digit win season in the last four years.
#2 Ohio St. at #17 Michigan on November 30:
There are only a few rivalries in sports where you can truly throw out the records because of the intensity and emotion that the players always show on the field regardless of what has happened earlier on in a season, and Michigan and Ohio St. is definitely one of those such rivalries. While it may not be fair, coaches at the two schools are often defined by how their team performs in "The Game." For example, despite the fact that John Cooper led Ohio St. to three Big Ten titles (1993, 1996, 1998) and a Rose Bowl in 1996 and two straight Sugar Bowls in 1997 and 1998, he was a dismal 2-10-1 against Michigan. In fact, the Buckeyes lost their undefeated seasons in 1993, 1995, and 1996 to the Wolverines, which was a principal reason why Cooper was fired from the Ohio school. When Cooper was asked if the losses to Michigan had anything to do with his dismissal, the longtime Ohio St. coach replied, "I'm sure that was a big factor, and the reason I won't be coaching here anymore." Furthermore, although Lloyd Carr won a National Championship with Michigan in 1997, his legacy is often damaged because he went just 1-6 against Jim Tressel's Buckeyes from 2001 to 2007, which allowed Ohio St. to make five BCS Bowl games (2002-2003, 2005-2007) and two National Championships (2006-2007). Obviously, the Michigan-Ohio St. game means a lot, and this year will be no different. The Buckeyes, whose 12-0 record in 2012 was just the school's second undefeated season in the last 38 years, may have their best team since they won the National Championship in 2002 and the school's best quarterback since Troy Smith won the Heisman Trophy in 2006. In a very deep class of college football quarterbacks, Braxton Miller may be the most dangerous matchup in all of college football. Miller's speed and agility in the open field is unmatched by any other top college football quarterback, as Miller was 4th in the Big Ten last season with 1,271 yards and set an Ohio St. QB record in rushing yards in a season. While Miller's ability to make big plays with his feet gives him the latitude to not be as efficient throwing the ball as some other quarterbacks need to be, the 2012 Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year needs to be more accurate in the intermediate passing game. If Miller can bring up his completion percentage from 58.3 percent (only Andrew Maxwell from Michigan St. and Caleb TerBush from Purdue had a lower completion rate in the Big Ten), it will open up the Buckeyes run game even more. On the other side of the field, Michigan have some very good pieces returning from last season, but they may be one year away from contending for much more than a Big Ten title. While Denard Robinson certainly provided the highlight reel plays with his unbelievable quickness last year, the Wolverines will be much more steady on offense with a quarterback that can actually throw the ball in Devin Gardner (sorry, Denard). They also have one of the top offensive lineman in the country at left tackle with 2012 First Team All-American Taylor Lewan returning to school for his senior year. However, not only do Michigan have to replace a significant amount of their defensive front, but they also will be without star linebacker Jake Ryan for most, if not the entire season. Nonetheless, no matter who is on the field, Michigan and Ohio St. is arguably the best rivalry in all of sports, so saddle up for Brady Hoke-Urban Meyer round 2 in November.
#11 Florida St. at #10 Florida on November 30:
Some college football rivalries are synonymous with the tradition and the history attached to the contest like the Army-Navy Game, the Big Game (Stanford and Cal), or the Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate Game (Georgia and Georgia Tech). While Florida-Florida St. certainly has its fair share of history, the rivalry has become one of college football's most attractive battles because of the flare and fervor associated with the teams. Whether it was Deion Sanders, Derrick Brooks, Charlie Ward, Warrick Dunn, or Chris Weinke from Florida St., or Emmitt Smith, Brad Culpepper, Danny Wuerffel, Ike Hillard, or Fred Taylor from Florida, the in-state bragging rights game always had electrifying star power during the 1980's and 1990's. However, the rivalry lost its excitement when Florida went just 32-18 from 2002 to 2005 and when Florida St. had a mediocre 47-30 slide from 2004 to 2009. However, the Florida-Florida St. rivalry seems to be returning to its glory days. Last year, both teams finished in the top 10 of the AP poll for the first time since 2000, and the Gators and Seminoles have expectations to do the same this year. While Florida St. is losing a significant amount of talent on the defensive front, they return their entire secondary except for Xavier Rhodes and have the second best recruiting class in the country coming into school. With a solid defensive backfield and an entire offensive line returning for their junior and senior seasons, the Seminoles have the ingredients for another BCS Bowl bid if they can get consistent quarterback play out of Jameis Winston. Winston, who was the top quarterback recruit in the 2012 class, is a lethal dual threat quarterback that can throw and run the ball equally well. While his maturity under pressure has yet to be seen, he has the natural ability to be college football's next star quarterback. On the other side of the field, Florida will have a very similar philosophy to the one that carried them to the Sugar Bowl last season: pound the football with the run and keep the game close with a stout defense. Despite his ability to extend plays with his feet, Florida quarterback Jeff Driskel does not have a big arm and he is more of a game manager then anything else. The Gators will once again rely on him to be smart with the football and not make silly turnovers (he only had 5 interceptions in 245 attempts last year). Although the Gators lost some key defensive pieces to the NFL (DT Shariff Floyd, S Matt Elam, LB Jonathan Bostic), do not expect their defense to take a step back in 2013. While the Florida-Florida St. game doesn't have the same feeling it once did, it is working its way back to being one of the two or three most significant rivalries in college football.
#9 Louisville at Cincinnati on December 5:
Louisville should be feeling very good entering this season. Not only are the Cardinals coming off a year in which they won their first BCS Bowl game since the 2006 Orange Bowl, but their team is also in the preseason top 10 for the first time since 2007, they have a Heisman Trophy favorite at quarterback in Terry Bridgewater, their desirable head coach, Charlie Strong, turned down an offer from SEC power Tennessee in the offseason, and they have a very good shot at going undefeated for the first time in school history since 1947 when the team played just 8 games in a season. However, Louisville could be the final victim of the vicious college football system known by most as the BCS. The Cardinals are very unlucky that their best team since the days of Brian Brohm and Michael Bush will be competing in the murky American Athletic Conference, which will do nothing but hinder the team's chances at a birth in the title game. There is a distinct possibility that Louisville could become the 10th team in the BCS era to finish a season undefeated and not win the National Championship, which would put them in the company of the following teams: 1998 Tulane, 1999 Marshall, 2004 Auburn, 2004 Utah, 2006 Boise St., 2008 Utah, 2009 Boise St., 2010 TCU, and 2012 Ohio State. Although Louisville may not square off against a ranked opponent all season long, their biggest test in conference play will likely come from Cincinnati. If the Bearcats want to pull off the upset, they will have to stop a Louisville offense that is as dynamic and explosive as any other offense in the country. Terry Bridgewater, who will likely be the first quarterback selected in next year's draft, is the driving force of the vaunted Cardinals attack. While Bridgewater's arm strength allows him to sling the ball down the field and challenge opposing teams' backfields, he isn't careless with the ball, as evidenced by the fact that he averaged just one pick for every 52.375 pass attempts last year. Consequently, Bridgewater is also very accurate with his throws, despite his propensity to go down field, as his completion percentage of 68.5 was the 6th best in the nation last season. Bridgewater's ability to make nearly any throw on the football field creates extra space in the middle of the field, which the Cardinal receivers love to exploit. Obviously, going undefeated is no where near a guarantee, but with a conference schedule of Temple, Rutgers, Central Florida, South Florida, Connecticut, Houston, Memphis, and Cincinnati, even an undefeated season may not be enough for the Cardinals.
# 5 Georgia at #8 Clemson on August 31:
One of the many downfalls of the BCS has been the fact that many of the top teams in college football have avoided playing quality opponents in the non-conference. While out of conference rivalry games like Notre Dame-USC, Florida St.-Florida, and South Carolina-Clemson have still been contested over the years, teams in the powerhouse conferences (such as the SEC and Big 12) have seen little value in tough non-conference scheduling with an already grueling conference slate. For example, Texas A&M's four non-conference games this season are against Rice, Sam Houston St., SMU, and UTEP, whose players will likely be so out of place that they might ask Johnny Manziel for his autograph. However, college football may have one of its best games of the season before September even begins, as Georgia and Clemson, preseason top 10 teams, are both legitimate National Championship contenders. Georgia, who were just 5 yards and an unintentional catch away from an SEC Championship and a berth in the BCS title game last year, return nearly their entire offense from a team that ranked third in the SEC in points per game at 37.8. While Aaron Murray is the leader of the offense with his poise and leadership, Todd Gurley is a definite Heisman sleeper. The tail back will be running behind the exact same offense line as last season, which features Dallas Lee and all-conference guard Chris Burnette. Gurley, who finished with 1,385 yards in his freshman season and became the 3rd freshman running back in Georgia history along with Herschel Walker in 1980 and Knowshon Moreno in 2007 to eclipse the 1,000 yard mark in their first year in Athens, will be a handful for the Clemson defense. However, if the game turns into a shootout, the Clemson offense will be more then ready. Last season, Clemson quarterback Tajh Boyd was in the top 5 in the country in yards per attempt (9.1), touchdowns (36), and quarterback rating (165.6), and his ability to move around the pocket with his feet gives his receivers extra time down the field. Clemson also has the most talented wide receiver in the country, outside of Marqise Lee at USC, in Sammy Watkins. Despite his off the field troubles last year, Watkins's ability is undeniable and how Georgia's cornerbacks, Darius Robinson and Bashaud Breeland, deal with his athleticism could determine the outcome of the game.
#6 South Carolina at #5 Georgia on September 7:
You will be hard-pressed to find another team in the last ten years of college football to open up their season in back-to-back weeks against top 10 opponents like the Georgia Dawgs have to do this season. After traveling to Death Valley, the Bulldogs return home to face death himself (just ask Vincent Smith) in Jadeveon Clowney. Clowney, who Georgia coach Mark Reicht says "is the best football player in the world," is the consensus top prospect in college football and could become the first pure defensive player to ever win the Heisman Trophy (cornerback Charles Woodson won the award in 1997 but he was also a prolific kick and punt returner). Clowney is a freak-of-nature and a once in a decade kind of defensive pass rusher. Last season, Clowney set South Carolina single season records in sacks (13) and tackles for a loss (23.5) and he is nearly impossible to block one-on-one for any college tackle. The defensive end possesses the rare combination of quickness and incredible strength, which is why he is often compared to former number one overall pick Mario Williams. Georgia will have to figure out a way to block Clowney whether it be keeping their tight end on the offensive line as an extra blocker or sending numerous double teams his way because in the Gamecocks last two victories over Georgia, Clowney has had 3 sacks and 6 solo tackles. While Clowney commands a lot of attention (and for good reason), Connor Shaw is going to have to make some plays for the South Carolina offense. Although Shaw's accuracy is underrated, his ability to run for first downs and keep the defense off balance is what caused Georgia so much trouble last season. South Carolina or Georgia have represented the SEC East in the conference title game the past three seasons, and the winner of this year's battle at Sanford Stadium should be in the driver's seat for the 2013 divisional crown.
#1 Alabama at #7 Texas A&M on September 14:
There is no doubt that the Alabama-Texas A&M showdown in Tuscaloosa was the best game of the college football season last year, as the clash had all the ingredients of an instant classic. First, the game featured a title contender, which put the battle in the national spotlight. Going into the conference matchup, Alabama was 9-0 and was looking to become the first team since Nebraska (1994-1995, 1997) to win three national championships in four years and the first team since USC (2003-2004) to repeat as college football title winners. The showdown also featured the compelling storyline of a new team coming into the very difficult and rugged Southeastern Conference. Most people assumed that it would take Texas A&M a few years to get accustomed to the physicality and toughness of the SEC. Although the Aggies went into the game against Bama with a 4-2 conference record, they lost to the two SEC powerhouses they played (Florida and LSU) earlier on in the season. Thus, the Aggies victory over Alabama was the all the more important because it proved that they belonged in the arduous SEC and that they could play with the best teams in the country. Finally, the game featured an incredible Heisman Trophy performance from Johnny Manziel. Not only did Manziel run for 92 yards, but he also was 24 for 31 throwing the football with 253 yards and 2 touchdowns including a wild TD pass where the freshman QB fumbled the ball, scrambled around the pocket, and then threw to a wide open Ryan Swope in the end zone. With the cloud over Manziel's eligibility no longer a dilemma (Manziel is only suspended for the first half of Texas A&M first game against Rice), the Alabama-Texas A&M rematch in College Station could once again be the game of the season. While the Aggies do have the Heisman Trophy winner returning at quarterback, the question marks surrounding Manziel's leadership will loom over him for the entire season. Obviously, Manziel was constantly in the spotlight following the 2012 season, and he did not handle himself in the most positive fashion. The quarterback's negligence surrounding his autograph signings and his departure from the Manning Passing Academy highlighted his immaturity. Nonetheless, Manziel is a very special quarterback, as his ability to move around in the pocket, coupled with his throwing touch, is nearly impossible to find in college football. Alabama will have to do a much better job containing Manziel if they want to avenge their only loss from last season. While the Tide do have some overhaul on their defensive line, the team's secondary is very similar to the one last season that allowed just 173.6 passing yards per game (best in the SEC). However, the key for Bama against the Aggies will likely be their linebacking core. Led by 2012 All-American C. J. Mosley, the Tide will have to make sure that Manziel doesn't get out of the pocket, where he can extend plays and move the chains with his feet or with his arm. Although the Manziel penalty is another example of the feebleness, incompetence, and languor of the NCAA, the ruling does allow for an unbelievable game in College Station.
#16 Oklahoma at #14 Notre Dame on September 28:
Oklahoma and Notre Dame have a lot more in common then you may think. First off, both schools are two of the most accomplished programs in the history of college football, as only Alabama has won more National Championships than the Fighting Irish and the Sooners since the poll era began in 1936 (Alabama has 10 titles, while Notre Dame has 8 National Championships, including 4 in a 7 year span from 1943 to 1949 and Oklahoma has 7 titles including back-to-back championships in 1955-1956 and 1974-1975). Coming into this season, both schools have to replace very successful starting quarterbacks although for very different reasons. The Sooners need to find a successor to Landry Jones, who set Oklahoma school records in career passing yards (16,646), completions (1,388), and touchdowns (123) and finished with a 39-11 record in four years as a starter at the school. Notre Dame have to replace Everett Golson (suspended for the season), who led the Fighting Irish to their first National Championship game in the BCS era (since 1998). Finally, while both schools have some very high level starters returning on the defensive side of the ball (2012 All-Big 12 First Team cornerback Aaron Colvin for Oklahoma and 2012 First Team AP All-American defensive tackle Stephon Tuitt for Notre Dame), both teams will need to find players to fill the shoes of players that moved on to the NFL like Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te'o (2nd in the 2012 Heisman Trophy voting, the highest finish for an exclusively defensive player since Hugh Green of Pittsburgh in 1980) and Sooners cornerback Tony Jefferson. First and foremost however, if both programs want to find success in 2013, they will have to get consistent quarterback play. The Fighting Irish are going to go with Tommy Rees as their starter. Rees, who started every game for Notre Dame in their 8-5 season in 2011, has no where near the explosive capabilities of Everett Golson. Furthermore, Rees lacks the mobility that Golson possesses and the arm strength, but he has shown that he can be a steady presence behind center, which is what Notre Dame is going to need out of him. In Norman, Blake Bell and Trevor Knight are still in a quarterback battle despite that fact that Oklahoma opens up their season in less than 2 weeks, but most people think that Bell will eventually come out as the starter. "The bulldozer" is a physical specimen and has shown his strength the last two years in goal line packages, as Bell had 13 rushing touchdowns his freshman year and 11 last year, which puts him on pace to break Oklahoma's career rushing touchdowns record by a quarterback. Despite his running prowess, Bell has only completed 10 passes in two years at the school (albeit as a backup) and will have to prove to defenses that he can throw the ball down the field in order to open up his downhill running ability.
#3 Oregon at #4 Stanford on November 7:
USC dominated the Pac-10 for so many years during the 2000's that it became almost a forgone conclusion that the Trojans would be in the National Championship picture at the end of the year. From 2002 to 2008, Southern Cal had a combined record of 80-9 and won 7 straight Pac-10 titles (to put that in perspective, Cal is the only team in Pac-10 history to win more than 3 consecutive conference titles). In that 7-year span under Pete Carroll, not only did USC have three Hesiman Trophy winners (Carson Palmer in 2002, Matt Leinart in 2004, and Reggie Bush in 2005), but they also made 7 straight BCS Bowl games and were co-champions in 2003 with LSU, sole champions in 2004 after a 55-19 blowout win over Oklahoma, and runner's up in 2005 after a 41-38 loss to Texas in one of the greatest games in college football history. However, things have changed out west over the past 4 years, especially after the departure of Pete Carroll to the NFL. Oregon, with their flashy uniforms and high tempo offense, became the first team since Ohio St. to appear in four straight BCS bowl games, and in 2010, the Ducks narrowly lost the in BCS National Championship Game to the Auburn Tigers. Stanford has also enjoyed an unprecedented amount of success over the past few years. The Cardinals, who from 1981 to 2008 had 21 losing seasons and just 7 winning seasons, have made three consecutive BCS bowl appearances. Stanford's 2013 Rose Bowl victory over Wisconsin was the school's first win in "the grandadday of them all" in 41 years since a 13-12 victory over Michigan in 1972. With USC outside of the preseason top 25 for the first time in 12 years since 2001 and Oregon and Stanford in the top 5, expect more of the same in the Pac-12. While Oregon return 15 of their starters from last season's 12-1 team, the Ducks will have a very different feel without Chip Kelly on the sidelines. Kelly, who left Oregon for the Philadelphia Eagles, was an offensive mastermind in Eugene, as the Ducks fast paced offense averaged 44.65 points per game in Kelly's four seasons in the northwest. Although replacing Kelly will not be easy, Mark Helfrich is inheriting a loaded Oregon offense. Pac-12 Offensive Freshman of the Year Marcos Mariota is the perfect quarterback for Oregon's spread offense, as he keeps the defense honest on the read option with his outstanding quickness. The Hawaiian native is also a very underrated passer, as Mariota threw 32 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions in his first year in the Pac-12. The Ducks also have the biggest home run threat in the entire country with their skilled running back and returner De'Anthony Thomas. Arguably the fastest player in the country, Thomas averaged nearly 8 yards per run and almost 10 yards per catch in a 16 touchdown sophomore season that showed his ability to break almost any play for a touchdown. On the other side of the field, Stanford have one of the most efficent quarterback in the country in Kevin Hogan. After taking over the starting job from Josh Nunes last season, Hogan had a 6-0 record, which included victories over four ranked teams and was highlighted by Stanford's overtime win over undefeated Oregon. With a team that loves to pound the football behind a huge offensive line (which is returning all-american tackle David Yankey), Hogan is very smart with the football, as he threw just 3 interceptions in over 150 passes last season. Although a lot can happen in a football season, do not be surprised to see an undefeated showdown in Palo Alto between Oregon and Stanford on November 7th.
#12 LSU at #1 Alabama on November 9:
There has not been a better college football game over the past 5 years than the LSU-Alabama clashes in the SEC West. In 2008, undefeated and top ranked Alabama needed overtime to beat LSU in a wild game that featured a blocked Crimson Tide fied goal at the end of regulation from just 29 yards away. In 2009, in their first of five straight top 10 battles, Alabama knocked off the Tigers for the second year in a row, the first time the school had won the rivalry game two consecutive seasons since 1998-1999. The following year, LSU got a measure of revenge, as Les Miles and the Tigers beat Nick Saban's Crimson Tide for the first time since 2007 in a 24-21 win in Baton Rouge. Despite the rivalry's newfound vigor in Nick Saban's first few years in Tuscaloosa, the LSU-Alabama game has managed to somehow intensify itself over the past two seasons. In 2011, in what many pundits dubbed as the latest "game of the century" due to the fact that it was college football's first regular season matchup between the top two teams in the nation since Michigan and Ohio St. in 2006, LSU beat Alabama in a defensive struggle 9-6 in overtime. However, the teams met again in the BCS National Championship Game and the tides were turned (no pun intended), as Alabama shutout the Tigers 21-0. Last season, in the latest matchup between the teams with National Championship implications, AJ McCarron engineered a 72-yard game winning drive with 51 seconds remaining to help the top ranked Crimson Tide edge past the Tigers. Once again this year, the LSU-Alabama matchup will be one of the most significant games of the entire season. Alabama could have the best college football team since the 2001 Miami Hurricane squad that featured Ken Dorsey, Clinton Portis, Willis McGahee, Frank Gore, Jeremy Shockey, Kellen Winslow Jr., Andre Johnson, Bryant McKinnie, D.J. Williams, Jonathan Vilma, Sean Taylor, Antrel Rolle, and Ed Reed (just to name a few). If the Tide do have a question mark, it is their offensive line. Anybody who watched the BCS National Championship Game last year could tell you just how dominant Alabama's line was against Notre Dame, as the Bama running backs were constantly getting into the second tier of the Fighting Irish defense without even getting touched due to the massive push from their offensive line. However, Alabama lost All-American guard Chance Warmack, two time All-American guard and center Barrett Jones, and All-American tackle D. J. Fluker to the NFL, and will thus have to replace a significant portion of one of the best offensive lines in college football history. While the Alabama line may not be as overpowering as it has been the past few years, it is blocking for another supremely talented Bama running back in T.J. Yeldon. As good as Eddie Lacy was last season for the Crimson Tide, Yeldon, who set the Alabama freshman record in yards (1,108) and tied the school record in touchdowns as a freshman (12), caught the eye of fans across the country. Unlike some of the recent power backs from the Crimson Tide like Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, Eddie Lacy, Yeldon is more of a speed back and can turn any play into major yardage. On the other side of the field, while LSU is losing a majority of their defensive starters including Barkevious Mingo, Sam Montgomery, and Eric Reid, the Tigers should still be very solid defensively, as the team has only had one season since 2002 in which they allowed more than 20 points per game, which was in 2008. If former Ravens offensive coordinator Cam Cameron can help Zach Mettenberger become more then just an average quarterback that doesn't make a lot of mistakes, the Tigers could be one of the most underrated teams in the nation heading into this season.
#13 Oklahoma St. at #15 Texas on November 16:
One of the best games of the college football season is typically the Red River Rivalry between Texas and Oklahoma. The two schools have combined for 11 national championships (7 for Oklahoma and 4 for Texas), 75 conference titles (43 for Oklahoma and 32 for Texas), 7 Heisman Trophy Winners (Bill Vessels in 1952, Steve Owens in 1969, Billy Sims in 1978, Jason White in 2003, and Sam Bradford in 2008 for Oklahoma and Earl Campbell in 1977 and Ricky Williams in 1998 for Texas), and 1 legendary rivalry game. However, there has been another matchup the last few years that has dwarfed the Red River Rivalry: the Texas-Oklahoma St. game. In 2011, Oklahoma beat Texas by 38 points in the largest blowout in the rivalry since a 2003 65-13 Oklahoma smashing. That same year, the Cowboys and the Longhorns, both top 25 teams at the time, played a thrilling game in Austin, which featured a 100 yard kickoff return by Foswhitt Whittaker and a 74 yard run by Jeremy Smith in the same quarter. Last year, Oklahoma once again dominated Texas, as the Sooners won 63-21 in Dallas, the 5th biggest blowout in the 107 year history of the historic game (only in 1908, 1956, 2000, 2003 were their bigger blowouts). In comparison, Texas and Oklahom St. played the most electrifying game of the Big 12 season last year, as the Longhorns knocked off the Cowboys 41-36 in a game that featured 77 points, including 35 in the first quarter. Oklahoma St. and Texas figure to be the top two teams in the Big 12 this season, which means that their game in Austin figures to be not only the most exciting game in the conference, but also very significant in terms of what Big 12 team will represent the league in the BCS. For Texas, longtime head coach Mack Brown is in a make or break year. Brown, who has been at UT since 1998 (the longest longest tenured coach in FBS besides Frank Beamer at Virginia Tech and Larry Blakeney at Troy), obviously has had a lot of success at the school, taking Texas to 4 BCS Bowl games (2004, 2005, 2008, 2009) including a National Championship in 2005 with Vince Young. However, in the last three years, the Longhorns have not had a season of more than 9 wins, and their 22-16 record over that span is the worst three year record for the Longhorns since they went 16-16 from 1991-1993 under John Mackovic. Fortunately for Mack Brown, Texas is returning 19 starters (tied for the most in the country with Bowling Green, Indiana, Miami, and UTSA) including their starting quarterback David Ash. Ash was very solid last season behind center, as he avoided throwing an interception in 7 of his 12 starts and only had 3 games where he had more than 8 incompletions. However, for Texas to have their best season since they went to the National Championship in 2009 with Colt McCoy, Ash has to improve against better opponents like Oklahoma, where he was 13 for 29 with 113 yards and 2 interceptions in the game last year. For Oklahoma State, their offense is going to put up a lot of points like they always do, no matter if J.W. Walsh or Clint Chelf is starting. In the last three years under Mike Gundy, the Cowboys have been in the top 5 in both yards per game and points per game offensively. The question that will define the Cowboys season is how their defense will play against an offense with the explosive of Texas. If Oklahoma St. can improve their defense, which allowed only 24 points per game at home last season, Mike Gundy could lead the Cowboys to their 3rd double digit win season in the last four years.
#2 Ohio St. at #17 Michigan on November 30:
There are only a few rivalries in sports where you can truly throw out the records because of the intensity and emotion that the players always show on the field regardless of what has happened earlier on in a season, and Michigan and Ohio St. is definitely one of those such rivalries. While it may not be fair, coaches at the two schools are often defined by how their team performs in "The Game." For example, despite the fact that John Cooper led Ohio St. to three Big Ten titles (1993, 1996, 1998) and a Rose Bowl in 1996 and two straight Sugar Bowls in 1997 and 1998, he was a dismal 2-10-1 against Michigan. In fact, the Buckeyes lost their undefeated seasons in 1993, 1995, and 1996 to the Wolverines, which was a principal reason why Cooper was fired from the Ohio school. When Cooper was asked if the losses to Michigan had anything to do with his dismissal, the longtime Ohio St. coach replied, "I'm sure that was a big factor, and the reason I won't be coaching here anymore." Furthermore, although Lloyd Carr won a National Championship with Michigan in 1997, his legacy is often damaged because he went just 1-6 against Jim Tressel's Buckeyes from 2001 to 2007, which allowed Ohio St. to make five BCS Bowl games (2002-2003, 2005-2007) and two National Championships (2006-2007). Obviously, the Michigan-Ohio St. game means a lot, and this year will be no different. The Buckeyes, whose 12-0 record in 2012 was just the school's second undefeated season in the last 38 years, may have their best team since they won the National Championship in 2002 and the school's best quarterback since Troy Smith won the Heisman Trophy in 2006. In a very deep class of college football quarterbacks, Braxton Miller may be the most dangerous matchup in all of college football. Miller's speed and agility in the open field is unmatched by any other top college football quarterback, as Miller was 4th in the Big Ten last season with 1,271 yards and set an Ohio St. QB record in rushing yards in a season. While Miller's ability to make big plays with his feet gives him the latitude to not be as efficient throwing the ball as some other quarterbacks need to be, the 2012 Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year needs to be more accurate in the intermediate passing game. If Miller can bring up his completion percentage from 58.3 percent (only Andrew Maxwell from Michigan St. and Caleb TerBush from Purdue had a lower completion rate in the Big Ten), it will open up the Buckeyes run game even more. On the other side of the field, Michigan have some very good pieces returning from last season, but they may be one year away from contending for much more than a Big Ten title. While Denard Robinson certainly provided the highlight reel plays with his unbelievable quickness last year, the Wolverines will be much more steady on offense with a quarterback that can actually throw the ball in Devin Gardner (sorry, Denard). They also have one of the top offensive lineman in the country at left tackle with 2012 First Team All-American Taylor Lewan returning to school for his senior year. However, not only do Michigan have to replace a significant amount of their defensive front, but they also will be without star linebacker Jake Ryan for most, if not the entire season. Nonetheless, no matter who is on the field, Michigan and Ohio St. is arguably the best rivalry in all of sports, so saddle up for Brady Hoke-Urban Meyer round 2 in November.
#11 Florida St. at #10 Florida on November 30:
Some college football rivalries are synonymous with the tradition and the history attached to the contest like the Army-Navy Game, the Big Game (Stanford and Cal), or the Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate Game (Georgia and Georgia Tech). While Florida-Florida St. certainly has its fair share of history, the rivalry has become one of college football's most attractive battles because of the flare and fervor associated with the teams. Whether it was Deion Sanders, Derrick Brooks, Charlie Ward, Warrick Dunn, or Chris Weinke from Florida St., or Emmitt Smith, Brad Culpepper, Danny Wuerffel, Ike Hillard, or Fred Taylor from Florida, the in-state bragging rights game always had electrifying star power during the 1980's and 1990's. However, the rivalry lost its excitement when Florida went just 32-18 from 2002 to 2005 and when Florida St. had a mediocre 47-30 slide from 2004 to 2009. However, the Florida-Florida St. rivalry seems to be returning to its glory days. Last year, both teams finished in the top 10 of the AP poll for the first time since 2000, and the Gators and Seminoles have expectations to do the same this year. While Florida St. is losing a significant amount of talent on the defensive front, they return their entire secondary except for Xavier Rhodes and have the second best recruiting class in the country coming into school. With a solid defensive backfield and an entire offensive line returning for their junior and senior seasons, the Seminoles have the ingredients for another BCS Bowl bid if they can get consistent quarterback play out of Jameis Winston. Winston, who was the top quarterback recruit in the 2012 class, is a lethal dual threat quarterback that can throw and run the ball equally well. While his maturity under pressure has yet to be seen, he has the natural ability to be college football's next star quarterback. On the other side of the field, Florida will have a very similar philosophy to the one that carried them to the Sugar Bowl last season: pound the football with the run and keep the game close with a stout defense. Despite his ability to extend plays with his feet, Florida quarterback Jeff Driskel does not have a big arm and he is more of a game manager then anything else. The Gators will once again rely on him to be smart with the football and not make silly turnovers (he only had 5 interceptions in 245 attempts last year). Although the Gators lost some key defensive pieces to the NFL (DT Shariff Floyd, S Matt Elam, LB Jonathan Bostic), do not expect their defense to take a step back in 2013. While the Florida-Florida St. game doesn't have the same feeling it once did, it is working its way back to being one of the two or three most significant rivalries in college football.
#9 Louisville at Cincinnati on December 5:
Louisville should be feeling very good entering this season. Not only are the Cardinals coming off a year in which they won their first BCS Bowl game since the 2006 Orange Bowl, but their team is also in the preseason top 10 for the first time since 2007, they have a Heisman Trophy favorite at quarterback in Terry Bridgewater, their desirable head coach, Charlie Strong, turned down an offer from SEC power Tennessee in the offseason, and they have a very good shot at going undefeated for the first time in school history since 1947 when the team played just 8 games in a season. However, Louisville could be the final victim of the vicious college football system known by most as the BCS. The Cardinals are very unlucky that their best team since the days of Brian Brohm and Michael Bush will be competing in the murky American Athletic Conference, which will do nothing but hinder the team's chances at a birth in the title game. There is a distinct possibility that Louisville could become the 10th team in the BCS era to finish a season undefeated and not win the National Championship, which would put them in the company of the following teams: 1998 Tulane, 1999 Marshall, 2004 Auburn, 2004 Utah, 2006 Boise St., 2008 Utah, 2009 Boise St., 2010 TCU, and 2012 Ohio State. Although Louisville may not square off against a ranked opponent all season long, their biggest test in conference play will likely come from Cincinnati. If the Bearcats want to pull off the upset, they will have to stop a Louisville offense that is as dynamic and explosive as any other offense in the country. Terry Bridgewater, who will likely be the first quarterback selected in next year's draft, is the driving force of the vaunted Cardinals attack. While Bridgewater's arm strength allows him to sling the ball down the field and challenge opposing teams' backfields, he isn't careless with the ball, as evidenced by the fact that he averaged just one pick for every 52.375 pass attempts last year. Consequently, Bridgewater is also very accurate with his throws, despite his propensity to go down field, as his completion percentage of 68.5 was the 6th best in the nation last season. Bridgewater's ability to make nearly any throw on the football field creates extra space in the middle of the field, which the Cardinal receivers love to exploit. Obviously, going undefeated is no where near a guarantee, but with a conference schedule of Temple, Rutgers, Central Florida, South Florida, Connecticut, Houston, Memphis, and Cincinnati, even an undefeated season may not be enough for the Cardinals.
Thursday, August 1, 2013
The Jake Peavy Trade Makes Sense For The Red Sox
"Baseball is a game where you see something new every single day." Most baseball fans have heard this expression a thousand times and while the phase has become somewhat of a cliche, there is no denying the fact that baseball gives its fans some of the most amazing and improbable moments in sports. Events that seem impossible or feats that just sound to absurd to occur can happen at any given time at a ballpark.
You want some examples: a player stealing the same base twice in one inning (Germany Schaefer of the Detroit Tigers in 1908), a triple play without the bat touching the ball (the Seattle Mariners in 2008), two back-to-back home runs by the same two teammates in one inning (Mike Cameron and Bret Boone of the Seattle Mariners in 2002), back-to-back inside the park home runs (Toby Harrah and Bump Wills of the Texas Rangers in 1977), going 0 for 11 in one game (Charlie Pick of the Boston Braves in 1920 in a 26 inning game), get caught stealing four times in one game (Robby Thompson of the San Francisco Giants in 1986), or being a 20-win pitcher on a team that lost more than 100 games (Ned Garver of the St. Louis Browns in 1951 - the Browns won 52 games that year, meaning that Garver won nearly 40 percent of them). And those are just a few of them.
While baseball is certainly a game of inconceivable feats, it is also a sport that is based on patterns, and one of the most common threads amongst playoff teams is a big time move before the trade deadline. In 2011, the St. Louis Cardinals, who eventually went on win the World Series, would not have even made the playoffs if they didn't acquire Rafael Furcal from the Dodgers. Furcal provided defensive stability for a team that committed too many infield errors with Ryan Theroit at shortstop.
Last year, the San Francisco Giants won their second World Series in the last three years largely due to the presence of outfielder Hunter Pence in the lineup, who the Giants acquired in a deadline deal with the Phillies. Not only did Pence help fill the void for the suspended Melky Cabrera, but his bases clearing double in game 7 of the NLCS broke open a 5-run lead against the Cardinals and helped seal the Giants World Series ticket.
This year, the Boston Red Sox, who a year ago had their worst season since they finished 65-89 in 1960, are hoping that their trade deadline deal to acquire former Cy Young winner Jake Peavy will push them over the hump. The trade, which had been discussed for days, was finally able to be completed once the Tigers stepped in and agreed to trade one of their top prospects, Avisail Garcia, to the White Sox. However, the Red Sox had to give up their gifted shortstop Jose Iglesias (to the Tigers) in the process, as you always have to give up a piece in order to improve (unless you're dealing with David Kahn). Overall though, it was a deal the Red Sox had to make and one that will serve them well in the future.
Jake Peavy is by no means the pitcher that he once was with the San Diego Padres. Not only did Peavy benefit from a pitchers ballpark (in Peavy's Cy Young year in 2007, PETCO Park had a park factor of .755, which was by far the most pitcher friendly in the league), but he also had a lot more velocity on his fastball. In 2007, Peavy's average fastball was clocked at 93.9 MPH. However, ever since he underwent surgery in 2010, Peavy's velocity has been greatly diminished, as his average fastball in 2011 with the White Sox was all the way down to 90.4 MPH. In Peavy's prime years with the Padres, like when he had a league best ERA in 2004 (2.27) and 2007 (2.54), the change in speed between his 94-95 MPH fastball and his mid 80's slider made him so effective. However, while a 4-5 MPH difference in fastball velocity may not seem like a lot, it is enough where the difference in speed between the fastball and slider isn't enough to fool hitters anymore. Thus, batters no longer have to worry about getting a fastball blown by them and can sit on the off-speed pitches.
Nonetheless, every MLB pitcher losses velocity as his career goes on (just ask Tim Lincecum and CC Sabathia), and Peavy has begun to figure out how to pitch without blowing the ball past people. While the former Cy Young winner is no longer a number one type pitcher, he is certainly a valuable asset to have in a rotation as a second or third quality pitcher for a potential playoff team like the Red Sox.
Obviously, when a pitcher goes from a last place team to a club that has one of the best records in baseball, it gives them a jolt of energy. However, it is always a concern for teams when a pitcher has been in perennial losing organizations and is not used to the pressure of the postseason or pitching in win or go home games. Despite the fact that in his 12-year career Peavy has pitched in just 2 playoff games, by all accounts, he will have no problem with the tension of a late season race. Peavy is called by some "the bulldog" because of his fearsome and ultra competitive pitching approach, which will fit perfectly in a city like Boston.
Finally, despite some of his struggles the last couple of years, Peavy has looked a lot better on the mound recently, especially since he came off the disabled list. The velocity on his fastball looks improved, as evidenced by his strikeouts per 9 innings rate (8.55) at its the highest its been since 2009. If Peavy can keep his slider down in the zone and limit the number of home runs that opponents hit off him, the Red Sox will have found a starting pitching steal, especially with Clay Buchholz out for an extended period.
Ultimately, transactions in sports are judged not only on how the player you received performs, but on how the player you gave up performs. For example, in 1987 the Detroit Tigers received Doyle Alexander in a trade with the Atlanta Braves for a minor league pitcher that was drafted in the 22nd round, John Smoltz. In the short term, the trade seemed to be a very smart move by Detroit. On the day of the trade (August 12), the Tigers were sitting 1.5 games back of the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East. Following the trade, Detroit went 33-18 and finished the season 2 games ahead of the Blue Jays, in large part because of the impact of Alexander. In 11 starts with Detroit, the right-hander was 9-0 (he won 8 consecutive starts over a month span) and let up 2 or fewer runs in 8 of those starts. Although Alexander was the main reason why the Tigers made the playoffs in 1987, the trade is widely regarded as one of the worst in baseball history because of the career that John Smoltz went on to have in the big leagues. Smoltz is the only pitcher in MLB history to win 200 games and also have 150 career saves and he is one of just 16 pitchers to ever to have 3,000 career strikeouts. And if that wasn't bad enough for the Tigers: Smoltz is considered one of the best postseason pitchers of all-time. His 15 playoffs wins are the second most all-time behind Andy Pettitte and his 199 postseason strikeouts are the most in the history of baseball.
With all that in mind, the type of player that Jose Iglesias turns out to be will greatly effect how people view the Red Sox trade. Iglesias, who is naturally a shortstop but predominately played third base for the Red Sox, is a defensive wizard. With unbelievably smooth hands and some of the quickest reflexes in the game, Iglesias showed his defensive mastery with the Sox right away. Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski said, "This guy [Iglesias] is special, defensively... Somebody that has seen him play just sent me a note and said 'In all my years in the game, the only two defensive shortstops I've seen that are better are Ozzie and Vizquel." While this may seem like a bit of an embellishment from a GM that is happy to have a new infielder, Iglesias is widely regarded around all corners of baseball as already having Hall of Fame defensive skills.
The intriguing part about Iglesias is not that he played outstanding, gold glove caliber defense for the Red Sox (which everybody expected him to do), but that he was actually a productive hitter (which nobody thought he could do after batting .204 to begin the season in AAA). In 63 games with the Red Sox, Iglesias hit .330 and had an on-base percentage of .376. On a team with strikeout victims like Mike Napoli and Jonny Gomes, Iglesias was always making contact, as he struckout on just 12.8 percent of his plate appearances (Iglesias had 30 strikeouts and he came to bat 234 times).
However, it was a very smart move by the Red Sox to sell high on Iglesias because his offensive production has been a bit of an aberration. Iggy has benefited more than any other hitter in the big leagues from fortuitous bounces and infield hits that have just found the right hole. For a batter that hits so many ground balls (55.9 percent of all his hits - which would be the 3rd highest percentage in the AL if he had enough plate appearances to qualify) it is perplexing how Iglesias has reached base on so many grounders. In fact, Iggy's .337 batting average on ground balls is abnormally high for any player. Furthermore, on balls that Iglesias hit in play, his batting average was .376 with the Red Sox, which would be the 4th highest in the entire league if he were qualified for the category. While BABIP can certainly show a players hitting capabilities, it often indicates a hitter's level of fortunate at the plate and shows that Iglesias has been having somewhat of a fluky season.
The Red Sox are also trading away a player in a position of strength within the organization, as Boston is loaded with talent along the left side of the infield. In a league that has a dearth of quality shortstops (when Jhonny Peralta is the best SS in the AL you know things are going poorly), Stephen Drew is a more than reliable middle infielder, as shown by his 4.5 Ultimate Zone Rating (a defensive measure to compare what a player did to what an "average" player would do), which is the 5th best in the AL amongst shortstops. Furthermore, while Will Middlebrooks is currently in AAA, the third baseman was so good in his rookie season that the Sox traded away Kevin Youkilis so that he could play the hot corner every day. In just 75 games last year, Middlebrooks had 15 home runs, 54 RBI's, and a .835 OPS and despite his demotion to Pawtucket, Middlebrooks is still a big part of the Sox future.
But the depth that the Red Sox have at shortstop and third base doesn't even end there. Xander Bogaerts, a 20-year old minor league phenom, is the best prospect in the Red Sox farm system, if not the best prospect in all of baseball (Bogaerts is ranked number 3 overall in Keith Law's top prospects list). Although the Sox still need to figure out whether Bogaerts is going to be a shortstop or a third baseman, one thing is for sure: he is going to be the cornerstone of the Red Sox organization for years to come. Also, while Garin Cecchini is still not ready for the big leagues, he is another third base prospect that is well regarded within the Red Sox organization. Cecchini, who is ranked as the 2nd best prospect in the Sox franchise and the 20th best in all of baseball, is batting .337 this season with both Single-A Salem and Double-A Portland.
Anytime you lose a player with the defensive capabilities of Iglesias, it is a tough pill to swallow. However, with all the talent that the Red Sox have on the left side of the infield and Dustin Pedroia signing an extension through 2021, the Sox were going to have no place for Iglesias. Thus, to get a veteran arm like Peavy, in a rotation that has already lost its best pitcher, the trade was a no-brainer for the Red Sox.
You want some examples: a player stealing the same base twice in one inning (Germany Schaefer of the Detroit Tigers in 1908), a triple play without the bat touching the ball (the Seattle Mariners in 2008), two back-to-back home runs by the same two teammates in one inning (Mike Cameron and Bret Boone of the Seattle Mariners in 2002), back-to-back inside the park home runs (Toby Harrah and Bump Wills of the Texas Rangers in 1977), going 0 for 11 in one game (Charlie Pick of the Boston Braves in 1920 in a 26 inning game), get caught stealing four times in one game (Robby Thompson of the San Francisco Giants in 1986), or being a 20-win pitcher on a team that lost more than 100 games (Ned Garver of the St. Louis Browns in 1951 - the Browns won 52 games that year, meaning that Garver won nearly 40 percent of them). And those are just a few of them.
While baseball is certainly a game of inconceivable feats, it is also a sport that is based on patterns, and one of the most common threads amongst playoff teams is a big time move before the trade deadline. In 2011, the St. Louis Cardinals, who eventually went on win the World Series, would not have even made the playoffs if they didn't acquire Rafael Furcal from the Dodgers. Furcal provided defensive stability for a team that committed too many infield errors with Ryan Theroit at shortstop.
Last year, the San Francisco Giants won their second World Series in the last three years largely due to the presence of outfielder Hunter Pence in the lineup, who the Giants acquired in a deadline deal with the Phillies. Not only did Pence help fill the void for the suspended Melky Cabrera, but his bases clearing double in game 7 of the NLCS broke open a 5-run lead against the Cardinals and helped seal the Giants World Series ticket.
This year, the Boston Red Sox, who a year ago had their worst season since they finished 65-89 in 1960, are hoping that their trade deadline deal to acquire former Cy Young winner Jake Peavy will push them over the hump. The trade, which had been discussed for days, was finally able to be completed once the Tigers stepped in and agreed to trade one of their top prospects, Avisail Garcia, to the White Sox. However, the Red Sox had to give up their gifted shortstop Jose Iglesias (to the Tigers) in the process, as you always have to give up a piece in order to improve (unless you're dealing with David Kahn). Overall though, it was a deal the Red Sox had to make and one that will serve them well in the future.
Jake Peavy is by no means the pitcher that he once was with the San Diego Padres. Not only did Peavy benefit from a pitchers ballpark (in Peavy's Cy Young year in 2007, PETCO Park had a park factor of .755, which was by far the most pitcher friendly in the league), but he also had a lot more velocity on his fastball. In 2007, Peavy's average fastball was clocked at 93.9 MPH. However, ever since he underwent surgery in 2010, Peavy's velocity has been greatly diminished, as his average fastball in 2011 with the White Sox was all the way down to 90.4 MPH. In Peavy's prime years with the Padres, like when he had a league best ERA in 2004 (2.27) and 2007 (2.54), the change in speed between his 94-95 MPH fastball and his mid 80's slider made him so effective. However, while a 4-5 MPH difference in fastball velocity may not seem like a lot, it is enough where the difference in speed between the fastball and slider isn't enough to fool hitters anymore. Thus, batters no longer have to worry about getting a fastball blown by them and can sit on the off-speed pitches.
Nonetheless, every MLB pitcher losses velocity as his career goes on (just ask Tim Lincecum and CC Sabathia), and Peavy has begun to figure out how to pitch without blowing the ball past people. While the former Cy Young winner is no longer a number one type pitcher, he is certainly a valuable asset to have in a rotation as a second or third quality pitcher for a potential playoff team like the Red Sox.
Obviously, when a pitcher goes from a last place team to a club that has one of the best records in baseball, it gives them a jolt of energy. However, it is always a concern for teams when a pitcher has been in perennial losing organizations and is not used to the pressure of the postseason or pitching in win or go home games. Despite the fact that in his 12-year career Peavy has pitched in just 2 playoff games, by all accounts, he will have no problem with the tension of a late season race. Peavy is called by some "the bulldog" because of his fearsome and ultra competitive pitching approach, which will fit perfectly in a city like Boston.
Finally, despite some of his struggles the last couple of years, Peavy has looked a lot better on the mound recently, especially since he came off the disabled list. The velocity on his fastball looks improved, as evidenced by his strikeouts per 9 innings rate (8.55) at its the highest its been since 2009. If Peavy can keep his slider down in the zone and limit the number of home runs that opponents hit off him, the Red Sox will have found a starting pitching steal, especially with Clay Buchholz out for an extended period.
Ultimately, transactions in sports are judged not only on how the player you received performs, but on how the player you gave up performs. For example, in 1987 the Detroit Tigers received Doyle Alexander in a trade with the Atlanta Braves for a minor league pitcher that was drafted in the 22nd round, John Smoltz. In the short term, the trade seemed to be a very smart move by Detroit. On the day of the trade (August 12), the Tigers were sitting 1.5 games back of the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East. Following the trade, Detroit went 33-18 and finished the season 2 games ahead of the Blue Jays, in large part because of the impact of Alexander. In 11 starts with Detroit, the right-hander was 9-0 (he won 8 consecutive starts over a month span) and let up 2 or fewer runs in 8 of those starts. Although Alexander was the main reason why the Tigers made the playoffs in 1987, the trade is widely regarded as one of the worst in baseball history because of the career that John Smoltz went on to have in the big leagues. Smoltz is the only pitcher in MLB history to win 200 games and also have 150 career saves and he is one of just 16 pitchers to ever to have 3,000 career strikeouts. And if that wasn't bad enough for the Tigers: Smoltz is considered one of the best postseason pitchers of all-time. His 15 playoffs wins are the second most all-time behind Andy Pettitte and his 199 postseason strikeouts are the most in the history of baseball.
With all that in mind, the type of player that Jose Iglesias turns out to be will greatly effect how people view the Red Sox trade. Iglesias, who is naturally a shortstop but predominately played third base for the Red Sox, is a defensive wizard. With unbelievably smooth hands and some of the quickest reflexes in the game, Iglesias showed his defensive mastery with the Sox right away. Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski said, "This guy [Iglesias] is special, defensively... Somebody that has seen him play just sent me a note and said 'In all my years in the game, the only two defensive shortstops I've seen that are better are Ozzie and Vizquel." While this may seem like a bit of an embellishment from a GM that is happy to have a new infielder, Iglesias is widely regarded around all corners of baseball as already having Hall of Fame defensive skills.
The intriguing part about Iglesias is not that he played outstanding, gold glove caliber defense for the Red Sox (which everybody expected him to do), but that he was actually a productive hitter (which nobody thought he could do after batting .204 to begin the season in AAA). In 63 games with the Red Sox, Iglesias hit .330 and had an on-base percentage of .376. On a team with strikeout victims like Mike Napoli and Jonny Gomes, Iglesias was always making contact, as he struckout on just 12.8 percent of his plate appearances (Iglesias had 30 strikeouts and he came to bat 234 times).
However, it was a very smart move by the Red Sox to sell high on Iglesias because his offensive production has been a bit of an aberration. Iggy has benefited more than any other hitter in the big leagues from fortuitous bounces and infield hits that have just found the right hole. For a batter that hits so many ground balls (55.9 percent of all his hits - which would be the 3rd highest percentage in the AL if he had enough plate appearances to qualify) it is perplexing how Iglesias has reached base on so many grounders. In fact, Iggy's .337 batting average on ground balls is abnormally high for any player. Furthermore, on balls that Iglesias hit in play, his batting average was .376 with the Red Sox, which would be the 4th highest in the entire league if he were qualified for the category. While BABIP can certainly show a players hitting capabilities, it often indicates a hitter's level of fortunate at the plate and shows that Iglesias has been having somewhat of a fluky season.
The Red Sox are also trading away a player in a position of strength within the organization, as Boston is loaded with talent along the left side of the infield. In a league that has a dearth of quality shortstops (when Jhonny Peralta is the best SS in the AL you know things are going poorly), Stephen Drew is a more than reliable middle infielder, as shown by his 4.5 Ultimate Zone Rating (a defensive measure to compare what a player did to what an "average" player would do), which is the 5th best in the AL amongst shortstops. Furthermore, while Will Middlebrooks is currently in AAA, the third baseman was so good in his rookie season that the Sox traded away Kevin Youkilis so that he could play the hot corner every day. In just 75 games last year, Middlebrooks had 15 home runs, 54 RBI's, and a .835 OPS and despite his demotion to Pawtucket, Middlebrooks is still a big part of the Sox future.
But the depth that the Red Sox have at shortstop and third base doesn't even end there. Xander Bogaerts, a 20-year old minor league phenom, is the best prospect in the Red Sox farm system, if not the best prospect in all of baseball (Bogaerts is ranked number 3 overall in Keith Law's top prospects list). Although the Sox still need to figure out whether Bogaerts is going to be a shortstop or a third baseman, one thing is for sure: he is going to be the cornerstone of the Red Sox organization for years to come. Also, while Garin Cecchini is still not ready for the big leagues, he is another third base prospect that is well regarded within the Red Sox organization. Cecchini, who is ranked as the 2nd best prospect in the Sox franchise and the 20th best in all of baseball, is batting .337 this season with both Single-A Salem and Double-A Portland.
Anytime you lose a player with the defensive capabilities of Iglesias, it is a tough pill to swallow. However, with all the talent that the Red Sox have on the left side of the infield and Dustin Pedroia signing an extension through 2021, the Sox were going to have no place for Iglesias. Thus, to get a veteran arm like Peavy, in a rotation that has already lost its best pitcher, the trade was a no-brainer for the Red Sox.
Friday, July 19, 2013
MLB Storylines To Follow During The Second Half Of The Season
The phrase has been muttered a million times, but yet it bears repeating year after year: the MLB season is a marathon, not a sprint. Unlike the NFL, where every week there is a feeling of desperation, the MLB teams are accustomed to long stretches during a season where their club may be struggling, whether it is a World Series contender or a last place team that is rebuilding. In fact, the 1951 New York Giants and the 1982 Atlanta Braves both had 11-game losing streaks and still managed to reach the postseason (the Giants lost to the Yankees in the World Series and the Braves lost in the NLCS to the Cardinals). With the first half of the MLB season in the rear-view mirror and the dog days of July and August rapidly approaching, it is important to remember that a few losses or a few wins don't make a playoff team, as the consistent ball clubs are always the ones that last the entire season. Here are some storylines to closely monitor during the tail end of the baseball calendar.
Manny Machado's Chase Of The Doubles Record:
Since 1936, not one player in the major leagues has hit 60 doubles over the course of a season. In 2000, Carlos Delgado and Todd Helton came close, and in 2002 Garret Anderson and Nomar Garciaparra fell just short. However, not only will Manny Machado likely become the first player since Joe Medwick to hit 60 doubles in a season (Medwick hit 64 with the St. Louis Cardinals in 1936), but he is also on pace to eclipse Earl Webb's record for doubles in a single season. In 1933, Webb hit 67 doubles with the Boston Red Sox, and remarkably, the record has stood ever since. Machado, who needs just 18 doubles over the second half of the season to break the Orioles single season record of 56 set by Brian Roberts in 2009, is having a historic year for any ball player, especially for a guy that just turned 21 in July. To show just how impressive it is that Machado hit 39 doubles during the first half of the season, only once in the history of baseball has a player younger than 24 hit more than 48 doubles over an entire season (Alex Rodriguez in 1996 at the age of 20 with the Mariners). As good as Machado has been defensively for the O's, his offensive consistency has been just as impressive. While Machado will certainly hit more home runs as his career progresses, his smooth stroke at the plate lends itself perfectly for his chase of the doubles record. The former first round pick will continue to rack up doubles over the second half of the year because he is a line drive hitter. Of Machado's 128 hits this season, 61 of them have been line drives, which shows his ability to drive the ball into the gaps. This could be the year that the 77 year old doubles record finally falls.
Possible Back to Back Triple Crowns For Miguel Cabrera:
As we all know, Miguel Cabrera had a season for the ages last year. Not only did Cabrera become the first Tigers batter to win the MVP award since Hank Greenberg in 1940 (Hal Newhouser, Denny McLain, Willie Hernandez, and Justin Verlander all won the award as pitchers), but he also become the major leagues first Triple Crown winner in 45 years since Carl Yastrzemski. As crazy as this may seem, Miguel Cabrera is actually having a better season this year! The Tigers slugger is on pace to finish the season with 51 home runs and 163 RBI's, which has only been done by three people in the history of baseball (Babe Ruth in 1921 and 1927, Hack Wilson in 1930, and Jimmie Foxx in 1932). Cabrera, who currently has an OPS of 1.132, is also looking to become the first player since Barry Bonds in 2004 to have an on-base plus slugging percentage of at least 1.1300 for an entire season. Cabrera is in such a grove right now that in at-bats where he is ahead of the count, he is batting a ridiculous .411. The third baseman is also trying to achieve something that no other triple crown winner ever did, which is to accomplish the feat in back to back years. Miggy has a seizable lead in batting average over Mike Trout, as his .365 average is 43 points better than the Angles star. However, despite an almost laughable 95 RBI's at the All-Star break, Orioles slugger Chris Davis drove in 93 runs over the first half of the season, while Davis has a 7 home run advantage in the last Triple Crown category. Despite having even better numbers than last season, Cabrera may miss out on consecutive Triple Crowns because of the historic season that Chris Davis is having. Nonetheless, just how good Miguel Cabrera has been this year can not be understated, as he is having one of the greatest single-seasons in MLB history.
Clayton Kershaw's Sub .200 ERA:
In the last 40 years, only 8 pitchers have ever finished a season with an ERA below 2.00 (Ron Guidry in 1978, Nolan Ryan in 1981, Dwight Gooden in 1985, John Tudor in 1985, Greg Maddux in 1994 and 1995, Pedro Martinez in 1997 and 2000, Roger Clemens 1990 and 2005, and Kevin Brown in 1996). However, at this year's All-Star break, Clayton Kershaw has an astonishing 1.98 ERA for the Los Angeles Dodgers. If Kershaw is able to end the season with a sub .200 ERA, he would forever be linked to some of the greatest single season pitching performances in MLB history. In 1994, Greg Maddux had a 1.56 ERA, the lowest for any pitcher in 77 years since Fred Anderson and Eddie Cicotte in 1917. In the heart of the steroid era in 2000, Pedro Martinez finished the season with a 1.74 ERA, while also setting the MLB record in WHIP for a single season. Kershaw has the stuff to finish a season with an ERA under 2, as his nasty curveball beautifully complements his mid 90's fastball. The Dodgers ace is certainly a strikeout pitcher, as his strikeout percentage of 24.8 ranks amongst the top 10 in the league. However, Kershaw can also pitch to contact and still be just as effective, as hitters are batting just .238 when they put balls into play against him, which is the 5th lowest in the league. Although Kershaw has been terrific the last two years (winning the NL Cy Young in 2011 and coming in 2nd in 2012), he has been even better so far this season.
Late Season Drama:
When the MLB instituted the second Wild Card berth in each league in 2012, its main intention was to put emphasis on team's winning their own division. However, the underlining goal of the expanded format was to create more drama with late season playoff races and the winner take all wild card showdown. The final day of the 2011 season was the greatest single night of baseball in MLB history, with more drama and twists and turns than a Shakespearean play. Baseball could be in store for some classic late season playoff races once again this year. Unless the Angles can miraculously turn around another massively disappointing season, the American League will likely be a 8 team race for 5 postseason spots, as all 8 of the clubs are within 6 games of each other. In fact, the Rays, Rangers, Orioles, Yankees, and Indians are all within three games of one another in the AL Wild Card race. The National League, specifically the NL West is likewise very crowded. In the NL West, the last place Padres are only 8.5 games out of first place. In fact, before San Diego went on a 2-11 skid, each team in the division was sitting within 3 games of each other on July 2. While the Dodgers have been playing exponentially better baseball ever since they got healthy and Yasiel Puig came to the big leagues, the Diamondbacks have been holding a slim lead in the division all season long. Nevertheless, it would be foolish to ever count out the Giants, who have won 2 of the last 3 World Series. Meanwhile, it is going to be a dogfight in the NL Central, as the Cardinals, Pirates, and Reds will all be looking to capture the divisional crown.
Yasiel Puig's Dominance:
Whether you thought that Yasiel Puig should have been an All-Star or that the question was an absolute joke (Jonathan Papelbon), there is no denying the impact that the Cuban sensation has had on the Los Angeles Dodgers. When Puig made his MLB debut on June 3rd, the Dodgers were 9 games under .500 at 23-32 and were 8.5 games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West. Ever since then, the Dodgers have been 25-15 and have crawled to within two games of the division leading Dbacks. Puig got off to such a torrid pace in June that his opening month in the big leagues drew comparisons to Joe Dimaggio. The star outfielder had a hit in 26 of his first 30 games including 8 home runs, 19 RBI's, a ridiculous slugging percentage of .745, and a batting average a tad under .450. Puig's energy (jumping into walls to make catches, throwing guys out from the outfield, and being ultra aggressive on the base paths) along with his crazy talent have proven to be invaluable for the Dodgers. However, the question is: can Puig continue to light up the big leagues or will pitchers begin to figure him out? While Puig has mainly slowed down in July due to a hip injury, some of his flaws have begun to appear. Puig is a guy that loves to swing the bat and he can sometimes be inpatient at the plate. The Cuban star only walked in 3 of his first 26 MLB games and through his first 161 plate appearances, Puig has walked just 7 times. In fact, Puig had a 12 game stretch from June 8 to June 21, where he didn't walk in 49 consecutive plate appearances. Pitchers have begun to pepper Puig with off-speed pitches outside of the strike zone because they know that he will chase a lot of pitches. Nonetheless, Puig is still just a 22-year old rookie that has unlimited potential and power, as he has already shown to opposing pitchers.
Late Season Drama:
When the MLB instituted the second Wild Card berth in each league in 2012, its main intention was to put emphasis on team's winning their own division. However, the underlining goal of the expanded format was to create more drama with late season playoff races and the winner take all wild card showdown. The final day of the 2011 season was the greatest single night of baseball in MLB history, with more drama and twists and turns than a Shakespearean play. Baseball could be in store for some classic late season playoff races once again this year. Unless the Angles can miraculously turn around another massively disappointing season, the American League will likely be a 8 team race for 5 postseason spots, as all 8 of the clubs are within 6 games of each other. In fact, the Rays, Rangers, Orioles, Yankees, and Indians are all within three games of one another in the AL Wild Card race. The National League, specifically the NL West is likewise very crowded. In the NL West, the last place Padres are only 8.5 games out of first place. In fact, before San Diego went on a 2-11 skid, each team in the division was sitting within 3 games of each other on July 2. While the Dodgers have been playing exponentially better baseball ever since they got healthy and Yasiel Puig came to the big leagues, the Diamondbacks have been holding a slim lead in the division all season long. Nevertheless, it would be foolish to ever count out the Giants, who have won 2 of the last 3 World Series. Meanwhile, it is going to be a dogfight in the NL Central, as the Cardinals, Pirates, and Reds will all be looking to capture the divisional crown.
Yasiel Puig's Dominance:
Whether you thought that Yasiel Puig should have been an All-Star or that the question was an absolute joke (Jonathan Papelbon), there is no denying the impact that the Cuban sensation has had on the Los Angeles Dodgers. When Puig made his MLB debut on June 3rd, the Dodgers were 9 games under .500 at 23-32 and were 8.5 games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West. Ever since then, the Dodgers have been 25-15 and have crawled to within two games of the division leading Dbacks. Puig got off to such a torrid pace in June that his opening month in the big leagues drew comparisons to Joe Dimaggio. The star outfielder had a hit in 26 of his first 30 games including 8 home runs, 19 RBI's, a ridiculous slugging percentage of .745, and a batting average a tad under .450. Puig's energy (jumping into walls to make catches, throwing guys out from the outfield, and being ultra aggressive on the base paths) along with his crazy talent have proven to be invaluable for the Dodgers. However, the question is: can Puig continue to light up the big leagues or will pitchers begin to figure him out? While Puig has mainly slowed down in July due to a hip injury, some of his flaws have begun to appear. Puig is a guy that loves to swing the bat and he can sometimes be inpatient at the plate. The Cuban star only walked in 3 of his first 26 MLB games and through his first 161 plate appearances, Puig has walked just 7 times. In fact, Puig had a 12 game stretch from June 8 to June 21, where he didn't walk in 49 consecutive plate appearances. Pitchers have begun to pepper Puig with off-speed pitches outside of the strike zone because they know that he will chase a lot of pitches. Nonetheless, Puig is still just a 22-year old rookie that has unlimited potential and power, as he has already shown to opposing pitchers.
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