Looking back at recent NCAA tournaments, history has shown that being a number 1 seed is a far cry from being set to reach a Final Four and that surprise teams are always making runs to get into the National Semifinals.
In 2 of the last 6 years, all four number 1 seeds have failed to make the Final Four. In 2006, #2 UCLA knocked off #1 Memphis in the Oakland Regional, #3 Florida defeated #1 Villanova in the Minneapolis Regional, #4 LSU beat #1 Duke in the Atlanta Regional, and #11 George Mason knocked off #1 Connecticut in the Washington D.C. Regional. Just last year the four number 1 seeds (Ohio St., Duke, Kansas, and Pittsburgh) failed to make the Final Four, as 4th seeded Kentucky, 3rd seeded Connecticut, 11th seeded VCU, and 8th seeded Butler were the four teams to appear in the National Semifinals.
In fact, only once since seeding began in 1979 have all four number 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four. Lastly, only once since 2001 has a team entered the tournament as the number 1 ranked team in one of the major polls and won the National Championship, which was in 2009 when North Carolina did it.
These numbers show that despite the fact that the number 1 seeds may have been the best teams during the regular season and have had the best resumes going into the Big Dance, there are always sleeper teams that make a run to the Final Four.
In the last decade, there have been a far share of surprise teams to make a run in the tourney.
In 2000, both North Carolina and Wisconsin made the Final Four as 8 seeds. In 2002, Missouri barely made the NCAA tournament after finishing 6th in the Big 12 with a 9-7 conference record and a 25-11 mark overall. However, the 12th seeded Tigers were able to make a run to the Elite Eight.
Recently, cinderella has swept across the college basketball landscape and has shown that any team that gets into the Big Dance can make a run in the tourney. In 2006, George Mason shocked the world by reaching the Final Four after knocking off the favorite to win the National Championship, the Connecticut Huskies, in a thrilling overtime game 86-84 in the regional finals. The Butler Bulldogs followed in George Mason's footsteps by reaching the National Championship game in 2009 as a 5 seed after many people picked them to loss in the first round in an upset to #12 UTEP. Perhaps even more surprising was the fact that the Bulldogs reached the National Championship Game the next year once again after being seeded 8th and losing their best player Gordon Hayward to the NBA draft. Also last year, VCU, after most people thought the Rams shouldn't even have been in the tournament in the first place, were able to shock the world and reach the Final Four as an 11 seed.
This being said, you should always be on a look out for teams that could surprise everybody and make a run deep into the tourney. Even if it isn't an absolute stunner like George Mason of 2006 or VCU of 2011 but rather a dark horse team that nobody expects to reach the National Semifinals like the 2010 Michigan St. team that was seeded 5th, or the 2006 LSU team that was seeded on the 4 line, or the Indiana Hoosiers, who made a surprise run to the title game as a 5 seed in 2002.
Here are some dark horse teams that could make a run in this year's NCAA tournament:
Iona Gales:
The Iona Gaels are going to be a very dangerous team when March comes around and will be a threat for any higher seed who they play in the first round and beyond. The Gaels have terrific guard play and will put a lot of pressure on opposing teams backcourts.
Scott Machado is arguably the best pure point guard in the country. Machado is a terrific passer and one of the smartest players in the country, as he leads a Gaels offense that is third in the nation in points per game at 83.3 and 1st in assists at 19.5. The 6-1 point guard is averaging 10 assists per game, which also leads the nation and has had 13 double-digit assists games this season including 6 in the team's first 7 non-conference games. He can also put the ball in the basket when he needs to, as he is averaging 13.6 points per game. However, the Gaels don't relay on Machado to score, but rather to spread the ball around the offense.
Lamont "Momo" Jones is one of the Gaels go to threats on the outside. The Arizona transfer, who didn't have to sit out for a year because he was granted a hardship waiver because his grandmother was ill, is putting up huge numbers in the Gaels offensive system. He is averaging over 16 points per game and is shooting just about 46 percent from the field. Momo had an offensive expulsion against Canisius on February 2nd when he had 43 points on 16 of 23 shooting from the field and 7 of 12 shooting from three. Momo's 43 points were a school home record, as he surpassed the previous record of 40 points set by Steve Burtt, which Burtt did against Holy Cross in 1984.
Sometimes lost by the great play of Iona's backcourt is the consistency of Michael Glover. Glover could be the Gales most important player, as he provides some size for the MAAC club. Glover leads the team in scoring at 18.5 points per game and rebounding at 9 per game. Glover has 11 double-doubles this season including 5 in the team's last 7 games and he had a 34 point and 15 rebound performance against Saint Joseph's in a 104-99 victory. Glover will be a key if the Gaels face a team that has some size and depth in their frontcourt.
Wichita St. Shockers:
If it weren't for Player of the Year candidate Doug McDermott leading the Creighton Bluejays to an unbelievable 21-3 start, the Wichita St. Shockers would be the talk of the Missouri Valley Conference. Since starting the season 2-2, the Shockers are 18-2 with an impressive 11-2 record in conference play.
A huge positive for the Shockers is that that don't lack size, as Garrett Stutz is a commanding presence inside. The 7 foot senior center is an absolute beast in the paint, as he is averaging 8 rebounds and over 1 block per game. The big man can also put the ball in the basket and he has looked much more comfortable underneath as of late. In the team's last 10 conference games, the center is averaging just under 20 points per game. Stutz is very also a very effective foul shooter and is shooting it at over 82 percent from the line, which is a huge boast for the Shockers because he gets to the line so often. The key for Stutz is his ability to stay on the floor and not get into foul trouble. The center is playing just over 25 minutes per game and in two of the team's four losses, Stutz has played less than 20 minutes.
If guards Joe Ragland and Toure' Murray, who are both averaging over 12 points per game, can provide some consistent scoring and three point shooting, the Shockers will be very dangerous because they have enough size to compete with almost every team down low in the country.
Lastly, another benefit for the Shockers will be the fact that they will get a favorable seed when March comes around if they continue to play good basketball. Wichita St. already has victories over a good Colorado team on a neutral court, a ranked UNLV team by 19 points, and they will get another crack at the Creighton Bluejays on February 11th.
Iowa St. Cyclones:
Iowa St., also known as transfer university because they are lead by a bunch of transfers from various schools, have a very dangerous team and are beginning to show it in Big 12 play. Since the Cyclones have grown accustomed to playing with each other, they are 12-3 in their last 15 games including 7-3 in Big 12 play. Royce White, a transfer from Minnesota, Chris Allen, a transfer from Michigan St., and Chris Babb, a transfer from Penn St., are playing together for the first season and have shown significant sings of improvement since they began the season 5-3 with losses to Drake and Northern Iowa.
Royce White is an all-around superstar forward, as he leads the team in scoring at 13.5 per game, rebounding at 9.3 per game, assists at 4.6 per game, steals at 1.2 per game, and blocks at 1.2 per game. The 6-8 sophomore forward is a solid presence inside and is complimented very well by great three point shooters like Chris Allen and Chris Babb from the outside.
Despite the fact that Allen has struggled a little bit from deep and is shooting just 36 percent from three, he continues to shoot with confidence and he has begun to find his form. Allen is shooting just under 45 percent from three in Big 12 play, which is up 7 percent from non-conference games.
The Cyclones have knocked off Kansas and Kansas St. at home and have their best team since they were 25-6 and 13-3 in the Big 12 back in 2001. They will likely be in the tournament for the first time since 2005 and could make a run in the Big Dance, especially if Allen and Babb are hot from three because White is a consistent threat in the post.
Washington Huskies:
The struggles of the Pac-12 have been very well documented this year. Currently, no Pac-12 team is ranked and no Pac-12 team even received a vote in last week's AP top 25 poll. In fact, California was the last ranked team inside the top 25 all the way back in week 4 of the polls and no Pac-12 team has been ranked inside the top 15 all season. Despite the fact that the Pac-12 is down this year and may only get 2 or 3 teams into the tournament, the Washington Huskies have enough talent and athleticism to cause a lot of teams trouble when March comes around.
Since starting out the season 5-5 with losses to St. Louis, Nevada, and South Dakota St. by 19 points at home, the Huskies have regrouped and have gone 11-2 including 9-2 in conference play, which is atop the Pac-12 standings. Washington has really improved on the defense end of the floor. In their first 10 games of the season, their opponents were averaging over 76 points per game. In their last 13 games, their opponents have been averaging just over 64 points per game, which is a significant decrease of about 12 points per game. The Huskies are lead defensively by their 7 foot center Aziz N'Diaye. Despite the fact the Diaye plays just over 23 minutes per game, he is a dominant down low and averages more than a block per game.
The Huskies are full of highly touted recruits including Tony Wroten Jr., who was the #17 overall incoming freshman for this year's class according to the ESPNU 100, Terrence Ross, who was the #30 overall recurit for the 2010 freshman class according to the ESPNU 100, and Abdual Gaddy, who was the #14 overall recruit for the 2009 freshman class according to the ESPNU 100. The Huskies' core has finally been able to piece things together and they are a dangerous team in the tournament because of their immense talent.
The Huskies cause matchup problems with many of their opponents because their backcourt of Tony Wroten Jr., Terrence Ross, and C.J. Wilcox, has extreme size and quickness, as all three of the guards are at least 6-5. Despite the fact that Tony Wroten Jr. is more of a scoring point guard than a distributor, he has played very well at the point position. Wroten is averaging just under 17 points per game but he isn't forcing any bad shots, as he is shooting about 48 percent from the field. Although Wroten isn't a great three point shooter, he is furious when he is attacking the basket and gets to the foul line more than 7 times per game. Terrence Ross is also a very reliable scoring threat. The sophomore is averaging more than 15 points per game and provides the Huskies with a three point shooting option, as he hits about 2 per game.
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