Friday, May 13, 2011

There Will Be No Triple Crown This Year

When the favorite to win the 2011 Kentucky Derby, Uncle Mo, dropped out of the race because of a gastrointestinal tract problem, it looked unlikely that the world would see the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. It takes a great horse to win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes, and with Uncle Mo scratched from the field, the remaining three-year old horses did not seem like they had the potential to win three grueling races over a little more than a month.

Animal Kingdom, a 30-1 morning line long-shot to win the Kentucky Derby, took home the race at Churchill Downs, but the chance that the underdog horse comes back and wins the final two races of the Triple Crown is slim. Animal Kingdom's victory was such a long shot that his trainer, Graham Motion, is skeptical that the horse can come back and win the Preakness. He said, "I never anticipated winning the Derby, so it's a lot to take in. It's an odd feeling to have won the Derby, and then you've got to start thinking about winning the Preakness. It's a little daunting. I'm recovering very slowly. I'm trying to enjoy the Derby before looking at the Preakness. It's all been pretty overwhelming." Animal Kingdom is not a very experienced horse and is still learning how to run, which made his Kentucky Derby victory all the more surprising

Since Affirmed won the Triple Crown, 11 horses have won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness but failed to win the Belmont Stakes. The average number of lifetime starts for those 11 horses coming out of the Derby was 9.3 races. Coming out of the Kentucky Derby, Animal Kingdom has made a total of 5 starts.

Animal Kingdom will also be dealing with a much different course at Pimlico than he did at Churchill Downs. The Preakness is more about speed than the Kentucky Derby, and it will be run at a faster pace by the horses. It will be difficult for such an inexperienced horse like Animal Kingdom to stay relaxed in a faster pace race and finish with as much "kick" as he did at the Kentucky Derby.

Long shots who have won the Kentucky Derby have, as you might expect, not done as well in the Preakness. In 2005, Giacomo won the Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds but finished 3rd in the Preakness. In 2009, Mine That Bird won the Kentucky Derby as the second biggest upset in Kentucky Derby history at 51-1 odds. He failed to win the Preakness Steaks two weeks later. I suspect the same fate for Animal Kingdom.

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