It has been 3 years, 10 months, and 20 days since Andres Iniesta gave Spain their first ever World Cup with his crazy 116th minute goal in extra time against the Dutch to help La Roja join West Germany as the only team to win the European Championship and then follow up that triumph with a victory at the world's biggest international tournament (West Germany beat the Soviet Union 3-0 in the 1972 Euro Final behind two goals from legend Gerd Muller and then beat the Netherlands and Johan Cruyff in the 1974 World Cup Final 2-1 behind a game-winning goal from Muller once again).
It has been 150 weeks and 5 days since Giovanni van Bronckhorst scored an absolute rocket of a goal with his left foot against Uruguay in the semifinals from an unthinkable range (honestly, he took that shot from Zambia and that doesn't even border South Africa) and sent the Netherlands to their first World Cup final since they lost 3-1 in extra time to Argentina in 1978 (that goal has to be up there with some of the best World Cup goals ever like Maradona's solo run against England in the 1986 World Cup quarterfinals, Carlos Alberto's goal in the 1970 World Cup Final against Italy, or Dennis Bergkamp's goal for the Dutch in the 89th minute of their 2-1 quarterfinal victory over Argentina in 1998).
It has been 1,399 days since FIFA finally realized that we need goal-line technology after Frank Lampard's chip goal over Manuel Neuer, which clearly hit off the crossbar and went over the line, was not ruled a goal and not only continued the Three Lions disappointment at the World Cup because the game went from being tied at 2-2 to Germany running away with things in their 4-1 victory, but also the Germans dominance over England in head-to-head games (Germany is 3-1-1 against the English in their contests at the 1966, 1970, 1982, 1990, and 2010 World Cups).
It has been 34,152 hours since the Netherlands beat Brazil 2-1 and Germany destroyed Argentina 4-0 in the quarterfinals of the competition, sending both South American teams home before the semifinals in the same tournament for just the third time in the last eleven World Cups (1982 when they both exited in the second round to eventual champion Italy, who finished at the top of their group, and 2006 when Brazil lost to finalists France behind a goal from Henry and Argentina lost in penalties to Germany being the others).
It has been 2,059,200 minutes since Jay DeMerit and Carlos Bocanegra left a big enough gap for OJ's Ford Bronco to fit through when Asamoah Gyan scored in extra time against the US to help Ghana become just the third African nation along with Cameroon in 1990 and Senegal in 2002 to ever reach the quarterfinals of the World Cup.
It has been 123,033,600 seconds since Ghana and Uruguay played the most dramatic World Cup quarterfinal match I have ever seen, a game that included Luis Suarez's infamous hand ball to prevent a goal in the final minute of the second extra time period, Asamoah Gyan's missed penalty that would have ended the game on the final kick, then Gyan's subsequent beauty of a spot kick in the penalty shootout, and finally Uruguay's victory that helped them earn their first semifinal appearance in the World Cup since 1970.
However, after such a long wait there is only one number that really matters anymore, which is 14, the number of days until Brazil and Croatia finally kick off the World Cup in Sao Paulo on June 12 (I was tempted to say the only number that matters is 42, but I'm not sure how many of my readers are
familiar with the answer to the ultimate question in life according to The Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy). As good as the last World Cup proved to be, and it was that amazing even without any head-butting or Italian defensive wizardry, there is just something extra special about this World Cup.
The soccer world has not seen a World Cup in South America since Argentina won the tournament in their home nation behind Mario Kempes and Daniel Passarella in 1978 and Brazil have not hosted the cup since they lost in the final to Uruguay 2-1 all the way back in 1950 (that was so long ago that Mark Hamill, Geoffrey Rush, and Robin Williams were not even born yet). Thus, the Brazilians will face an unprecedented amount of pressure to bring World Cup glory back to their soccer crazy nation for the first time since Roberto Carlos, Rivaldo, Ronaldinho, and Ronaldo led them to the trophy in 2002 with a 2-0 victory over Germany. In 2006, Germany faced the pressure of playing in front of their home fans and their third place finish was seen as a respectable result under now United States manager Jurgen Klinsmann, but a third place finish for the Brazilians at the World Cup would be the worst thing for the nation since Anderson Silva went down to Chris Weidman in December.
Meanwhile, Spain are looking to become just the third nation to defend their World Cup title four years after winning it, which would put them in a category with Italy, who did so in 1934 and 1938 due to the play of Giovanni Ferrari and Giuseppe Meazza, and Brazil, who did so behind Garrincha and Pele in 1958 and then again in 1962. La Roja have already won three straight major international tournaments with Euro 2008, the World Cup in 2010, and the European Championship for a second consecutive time in 2012, so a fourth title in a row would make them the greatest international soccer dynasty of all-time, ahead of the Brazilian teams in the late 1950's and early 1960's and the separate group in the early 1970's (Pele and Rivelino), the great German teams in the mid 1970's (Franz Beckenbauer, Gerd Muller, and Paul Breitner), and the incredible French teams in the late 1990's and early 2000's (Zidane, Vieira, and Henry). There have been some great dynasties in sports that include the New York Yankees in the 1950's (Berra, Mantle, Rizzuto, and Whitey Ford), the Montreal Canadiens in the 1950's (Maurice Richard, Beliveau, Doug Harvey, Plante), the Boston Celtics in the 1960' (Cousy, Russell, Sam Jones, and Havlicek), UCLA in the 1960's and 1970's (Gail Goodrich, Lew Alcindor, Lucius Allen, and Bill Walton), the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 1970's (Bradshaw, Harris, Greene, Ham, and Blount), the Los Angeles Lakers in the 1980's (Magic, Worthy, Wilkes, and Kareem), the Edmonton Oilers in the 1980's (Gretzky, Messier, and Paul Coffey), and the Chicago Bulls in the 1990's (Jordan, Pippen, and Rodman), but the Spanish National Team would be right there with every last one of them if they were able to take the World Cup Trophy back to their home nation once again.
The scary part about this discussion is that I've only talked about the two favorites in the field with the 2013 Confederations Cup Finalists, Brazil and Spain (Brazil is the only team to play in the Confederations Cup Final and then the World Cup Final the following year when they did so in 1997 and 1998). All 32 teams have so many stories to follow whether it be can Mexico turn things around after winning the Olympics in 2012 but having a dreadful qualifying campaign, will Joel Campbell of Costa Rica or Christian Atsu of Ghana be the break out player at the World Cup (they could go back to Arsenal and Chelsea respectively and each leave their loan deals with Olympiacos and Vitesse with a good tournament), or can a team like Chile or Colombia make a dark-horse run deep into the competition (Belgium is no longer a dark-horse in my book)? Here are the answers to all your pressing questions with the 2014 World Cup right upon us at last.
Will Didier Deschamps and France Regret Leaving Samri Nasri Off The Roster?
Although there were some big names in the soccer world that were left off world cup squads the past week including Isco, Lucas Moura, Philippe Coutinho, Kaka, Carlos Tevez, Mario Gomez, Michael Carrick, and Gael Clichy, Samri Nasri has to be the best footballer not going to the World Cup on a team that will be playing in Brazil (Nasri will join Petr Cech, David Alaba, Neven Subotic, Aaron Ramsey, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Zlatan Ibrahimovich, Robert Lewandowski, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, and Gareth Bale as the best players not going to the World Cup at all this summer). There was widespread speculation for weeks that Nasri would not be included in the French national side and his exclusion is not a real stunner to anybody that has closely followed his deeply strained relationship with French coach Didier Deschamps (anytime a player says, "I'll watch the World Cup on TV," and then defends his own abilities by saying, "If starting games in a club like Manchester City and winning two titles isn't enough, too bad, I won't regret anything," you know that things are going pretty poorly, even for the always tumultuous French National Team). Nasri's time playing for France, especially since Didier Deschamps took over Les Blues for Laurent Blanc after France's disappointing 2-0 exit in the quarterfinals of Euro 2012 to eventual champions Spain, has been rocky and tense to say the least, making his omission not something totally out of the blue, unlike the Cavs taking Anthony Bennett or the Jags selecting Blake Bortles.
However, it is still hard to fathom that a player of Nasri's quality, when he is at his best, has been left off a World Cup roster entirely. As you can say for any attack-minded Manchester City player this season, except for Alvaro Negredo at the end of the year, Nasri thrived in City's free flowing offensive movement under first year manager Manuel Pellegrini (City finished just 1 goal shy of tying Chelsea's record for most goals in a Premier League season, which they set in 2009-2010). Nasri's incredible outside of the foot goal in the League Cup Final against Sunderland, which helped give City their first League Cup since their 2-1 victory over Newcastle in 1976, showed his world class technical ability that few players have the ability to emulate around the box. He was instrumental in giving City their second league title in three seasons and making them just the third team in the last thirty years to do the League and League Cup double along with Chelsea in 2005 and Manchester United in 2009. Unlike his time playing under Roberto Mancini during his first two years at City, which was often characterized by his baffling inconsistency from game to game, Nasri was one of Man City's most reliable players this season. Yaye Toure, who I think had the best season for any midfielder in the world, was the only City midfielder to play more games than Nasri in the Premier League and the Frenchmen had more goals in his 2013-2014 campaign than his past two years with City combined. It is safe to say that Nasri had his best professional season in a World Cup year, another reason why his omission has some legitimate basis to be questioned.
When thinking about the biggest enigmas in sports, names like Nene, Starlin Castro, Andrei Arshavin, Hatem Ben Arfa, and Samri Nasri immediately come to mind (we just saw the good Nene that was determined to show the world he had enough of hearing about Joakim Noah and his Defensive Player of the Year Award, the first by a Bull since 1987-1988 when Michael Jordan had one of the best seasons in NBA history, when Nene averaged 17.75 points and 6.5 rebounds in the Wizards domination of the Bulls in 5 games and then we saw the run away and hide your children Nene when he averaged just 11 points and 4.5 rebounds in Washington's 6-game series loss against the Pacers). Before his very impressive season with City this year, Nasri's play with his club could be characterized by a very good performance where he would attack the back line and continue to move into open spots in midfield for passes followed by a game in which he would be content with passing and receiving the ball from side to side and showing very little interest in proceedings or in going forward. Nasri's maddening inconsistency for a player of his caliber was the reason why he was so often be passed over in the lineup prior to this season at City for guys like James Milner, Javi Garcia, Adam Johnson, Gareth Barry, and Nigel de Jong in the midfield. While his very frustrating erratic play stopped for club this year under Pellegrini, it sometimes still rears its ugly head for the French National Team. Nasri did have some real bright moments for France in qualifying for the 2014 World Cup that showed his quality as one of the world's most gifted midfielders, especially his goal against Belarus in Gomel that gave France a much needed 3-2 lead in the game and an eventual victory to secure their spot behind Spain in group I. However, in the first leg of France's World Cup playoff against Ukraine, Nasri was caught dribbling around the 18-yard box much too often and had a very poor performance in Les Blues 2-0 loss to the Yellow-Blue in Kiev. The defeat put the French on the brink of not making the World Cup for the first time since 1994 before they narrowly took the tie with a 3-0 win back in Paris in the second leg without the sometimes up and down Nasri in the lineup.
Despite his poor performance in the pivot first leg against Ukraine, most of the French team including Ribery, Remy, and Koscielny had terrible games as well, so Nasri's exclusion has more to do with Deschamps belief that Nasri would plague the chemistry of the squad (we all remember the disaster of a World Cup that France had in 2010 with the team boycott after the incidents with Anelka, Evra, Ribery, and Toulalan, so making sure that the French would play together, much easier said than done, was very important to Deschamps). Not only did Nasri serve a three game suspension for his altercation with a reporter after France's loss to Spain in Euro 2012 (he was one of four players along with Menez, M'Vila, and Ben Arfa to be reprimanded for their actions at the championships, another instance of French insolence that Deschamps has been trying to stop), but Deschamps also pointed to the fact that Nasri's "not happy when he's a substitute," giving more credence to the fact that Deschamps did not want to hurt the harmony of his squad by bringing on the sometimes disgruntled Nasri. Even if Nasri was not going to start and the French were going to play Matuidi, Pogba, and Cabaye in the middle with Ribery and Valbuena on the wings, Nasri could still provide a different option for Les Blues. Ribery and Valbuena are both very quick outside midfielders and can use their pace to get around players and put balls into the box for Benzema or Giroud. However, as we saw this season with Nasri at City when he played in beautiful little triangles with Toure and Silva, Nasri can play intricate football in the middle of the field and undo a defense if the dribbling on the wings is not working against the outside backs of Switzerland for example, who have the experience Juventus right back, Stephan Lichtsteiner, and the 21-year old rising star at left back from Wolfsburg with Ricardo Rodriguez, a player that was only topped by Reus and Max Kruse in terms of Bundesliga goal scoring chances created despite playing half back. Obviously, France could not take Nasri on the squad if he was truly unwilling to play the various roles that Deschamps would ask of him (I question the validity of this anyway because his teammates at City have never said anything bad about him), but there is no doubt that they will miss his passing ability and cleverness in midfield. Carrick had a terrible season at United and missed out on the England squad, Mario Gomez missed most of the season for Fiorentina and was not picked by Low, Clichy played a reserve role behind Aleksandar Kolarov and was not selected by Deschamps, so it is odd that Nasri will not be on the plane to Brazil after his finest year in England for City.
Will Adam Lallana Be In England's Starting XI?
A little more than three years ago in 2010-2011, Adam Lallana was playing in the third tier of English football with Southampton and competing for the Football League Trophy and promotion just to get one step closer to the Premier League (Southampton did win the Football League Trophy in 2010) rather than playing in the League Cup and England's highest footballing division. On the other hand, in 2010-2011, Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard were coming off their second World Cup trips and Lampard scored 10 goals in the Premier League for Chelsea, marking the 8th consecutive year he bagged at least double digit goals in the league, dating all the way back to the 2003-2004 campaign when the blues finished 2nd to "the invincibles" of Arsenal. Gerrard also showed his quality in the 2010-2011 season when he came on as a substitute and scored a second half hat trick against Napoli in the group stage of the Europa League (Gerrard's only other hat trick in European competition came against Total Network Solutions in the first leg of their first round qualifying match in the Champions League in 2005-2006, the year after Liverpool beat AC Milan in their famous final in Istanbul). Meanwhile, in 2010-2011, Wayne Rooney was in the prime of his career with Manchester United, netting his 100th career goal with the club during a 4-2 game against West Ham where he scored a hat trick, scoring the best goal of his career on a ridiculous bicycle kick against rivals Man City, and helping United win their 3 league title in 4 years (they became the 6th club to accomplish the feat and joined Liverpool as the only English team do so since Arsenal won three titles in a row in the early 1930's. Two weeks ago I would have made a joke about Arsenal winning trophies, so it saddens me that they actually won something that isn't Champions League qualification by finishing 3rd or 4th in the league, which they have done for 9 straight seasons, when they narrowly came back against Hull for their first FA Cup title since they beat United in penalties in 2004-2005). With all that being said, it is crazy to think that Lampard and Gerrard, two players that rank in the top 8 in English international caps with more than 100, and Rooney, who is 5th in international goals for an English player and should eventually catch Bobby Charlton for the all-time lead in the category, could conceivably be relying on a player in Brazil, if Roy Hodgson starts him in midfield, who after the last World Cup was playing two divisions below Chelsea, Liverpool, and United all the way down in league one in Adam Lallana.
To begin with, England's midfield is not as talented or as deep as any of the other so called top teams in the field (can we still call the Three Lions a top team when they have not reached the quarterfinals of the World Cup since they finished in fourth in 1990 and when it would actually be a mild surprise if they made it out of the group stage with Uruguay and Italy also in group D). The only definite in the England midfield is Steven Garrard, who is going to play in front of England's back four after he showed this season with Liverpool that he is as good as any defensive midfielder in the world, which includes players such as Sergio Busquets, Xabi Alonso, Andrea Pirlo, Daniele De Rossi, and Sami Khedira. Gerrard's ability to play long balls over the top with pin point accuracy will help an English team that could have some real pure speed up front to get behind defenses. However, the rest of the English midfield is a bigger mystery than a Harlan Coban novel. While James Milner is a very good player to have on a squad because he
can play anywhere in midfield and works very hard to win the ball and
keep it, he is not dynamic enough to start for the English. Although Ross Barkley is a terrific talent at just the age of 20 and has the ability to become England's next great midfielder following in the footsteps of Beckham, Scholes, Cole, Gerrard, and Lampard, Hodgson is not going to start a player with that much inexperience (he has yet to play double digit premier league games in a season). On the complete other end of the spectrum, Frank Lampard is no longer the same guy that became the first player in the Premier League era to score more than 20 goals in a league season as a midfielder and will likely not feature in England's starting XI after playing behind Ramires, Nemanja Matic, and Oscar for Chelsea this season. If Rooney is going to start up front with Sturridge playing off him in some sort of formation, that leaves six players (Wilshere, Henderson, Ox, Sterling, Lallana, and Welbeck) vying for three spots in the English midfield and wide areas and with Welbeck a much better fit up front than on the left and Wilshere just coming back from a left foot injury that kept him out nearly two months, Lallana does have the inside track to start.
Although Lallana is not trying to crack the Spanish midfield, it is not like he is the tallest midget either because for all their promise to let you down, much like Ivory Coast, the English do have some talent to provide some fireworks at the World Cup, especially if they start Lallana. With the likes of England internationals Rickie Lambert and Luke Shaw
along with players such as Steven Davis, Jay Rodriguez, Dejan Lovren, Jack
Cork, and Jose Fonte, Southampton had a very solid squad this season to help them come in 8th in the premier league, which was their highest finish in the top division since they came in 7th all the way back in 1989-1990. However, everything that the Saints did under Mauricio Pochettino in their best campaign in nearly 25 years was centered around Lallana, as evidenced by the fact that the 26 year old was put on the Premier League Team of the Year in midfield along with Gerrard, Toure, and Hazard and was on the shortlist for Premier League Player of the Year with Suarez, Gerrard, Sturridge, Toure, and Hazard. If Lallana can perform on the international level like he did all season long for Southampton, he provides something a little different than anybody else on the English team because no other player in midfield, except for maybe Wilshere, has the creativity to set up goal scoring chances like Lallana. Although Lallana only has three caps for the Three Lions, he showed his quality to make the players around him better when he set up Daniel Sturridge's header at the doorstep of the goal for England's only score in a 1-0 friendly win at Wembley against Denmark in March. While England do have players with pace like Sturridge, Welbeck, Ox, and Sterling and some players that are real good distributors of the ball like Gerrard, Henderson, and Lampard, Lallana is one of the only players on England that enjoys playing in tight spaces and can keep the ball with his quick feet, something England could not do at all when Italy beat them in penalties in the quarterfinals of Euro 2012 (that game was just about the best single performance I have ever seen from a guy that didn't score a goal because Pirlo dictated the whole game from a deep lying midfield position). Lallana can play both sides of the field equally well and is very good with the ball at his feet, which is why Hodgson should really start the Southampton man in midfield for the World Cup.
Will Their Be A Team Outside of Europe and South America In The Quarterfinals:
In my picks for the World Cup, the only team I had reaching the quarterfinals of the tournament from CONCACAF, the CAF, or the AFC was Ivory Coast out of group C, but past history shows that it is entirely possible that we could have our final eight teams all from the European and South American confederations. In 1986, Mexico made a run to the quarterfinals of the World Cup and Cameroon did the same in 1990, but they were one of only two teams, along with Morocco in 1986 and Costa Rica in 1990, to even make it to the knockout stage from CONCACAF, the CAF, or the AFC in those two respective tournaments. With Saudi Arabia losing to Sweden 3-1, the US going down to eventual champions Brazil 1-0, Mexico losing in penalties to Bulgaria, and eventual finalists Italy beating Nigeria in extra time 2-1 in the round of 16, the 1994 World Cup did not see one team from a confederation outside of Europe and South America in the quarters. In 1998, Europe and South America swept all eight spots in the quarterfinals of the tournament once again with Nigeria losing 4-1 to Denmark and Mexico falling 2-1 to Germany in the round of 16. The only real good year for nations in CONCACAF, the CAF, and the AFC came in 2002, when the United States and Senegal both made it to the quarterfinals before losing 1-0 to eventual finalists Germany and 1-0 to Turkey on a golden goal in extra time respectively and when South Korea made it all the way to the semifinals of the World Cup, marking the best finish for the federation at the world's biggest international tournament. Back in 2006, all of the teams in the quarterfinals were from Europe or South America, as Mexico lost to Argentina 2-1 in extra time, Australia fell to eventual champions Italy on a penalty kick goal from Francesco Totti in the 95 minute right before extra time, and Ghana were killed by Brazil 3-0 in the round of 16. Most recently in 2010, Ghana was the only team to reach the quarterfinals from a region outside of Europe or South America after they beat the United States behind Asamoah Gyan's goal in extra time in the round of 16 (I'm still bitter about that goal so of course the soccer gods put US and Ghana in the same group once again for this World Cup for the big rematch in Natal on June 16). Since the competition went to this current format in 1986, there have been just 6 teams to reach the quarterfinals of the tournament not from Europe and South America in the last 7 World Cups combined.
Now, the landscape of international soccer has certainly changed of late and teams from all over the world have become much more equipped to compete against the powerhouses from Europe and South America since the turn of the century. Some of the most gifted players in the world right now come from CONCACAF, the CAF, and the AFC including Yaya Toure, Kwadwo Asamoah, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Mehdi Benatia, John Obi Mikel, Keisuke Honda, Son Heung-Min, Shinji Kagawa, and Javier Hernandez. The Asian confederation has improved with the addition of Australia, a team that has made three straight World Cups and even made the round of 16 back in 2006. While the rest of the teams in CONCACAF are still coming along at a slower pace than anticipated, which is a nice way of saying that they are struggling (Honduras is likely the 4th most successful team in the confederation and they have never had a World Cup victory), Mexico took home Olympic gold over Brazil in 2012 and have made it to the knockout stage in 6 straight World Cups that have participated in (they were banned from the 1990 tournament) and soccer in the United States has seen an undeniably growth over the past decade and will continue to rise in popularity until it becomes one of the most popular sports in all of America (the US has made 7 straight World Cups after missing out on every tournament from 1954 to 1986 and the MLS has expanded from the 10 teams it had in its inaugural season in 1996 and will have 21 teams by 2015 with the addition of New York FC and Orlando City SC with teams in Atlanta and Miami likely coming by 2017). Although there are teams outside of Europe and South America that do have some real promise for not only the present but also the future (calling on you Julian Green, Lacina Traore, and Joel Obi), they have not been able to put it together as of yet, so this World Cup will serve as a very important referendum for the progress and the state of soccer in CONCACAF, Africa, and Asia on a global platform.
Based upon the quality of their squads, their World Cup groups, and their chances of getting hot in June and making a surprise run in the field, here are my rankings of teams from CONCACAF, the CAF, and the AFC from least to most likely of making the quarterfinals of the world's biggest international soccer competition, which has been a rare feat for teams outside of Europe and South America: Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Mexico, Japan, United States, Ghana, Cameroon, Algeria, South Korea, Costa Rica, Honduras, Iran, and then finally Australia (it is amazing that 40 percent of the field are teams outside of Europe and South America and yet they will be lucky to have one of them reach the final eight clubs left in the World Cup). Starting at the bottom, you can easily make a case that Algeria, South Korea, Costa Rica, Honduras, Iran, and Australia are the worst six teams in the entire World Cup field with Greece being the only team keeping Cameroon out of the bottom seven. In arguably the toughest group in the tournament with the two finalists from 2010 with Spain and Netherlands and the very dangerous Chilean side, Australia is going to be a horror show (I'm calling it now that the Socceroos will become the first team since El Salvador in 1982 to conceded at least 13 goals in one World Cup). Despite having some talented players with PSV midfielder Bryan Ruiz and fellow playmaker Joel Campbell, Costa Rica are in a very difficult group with England, Italy, and Uruguay, all ranked within the top 11 in the world in FIFA rankings, and will almost certainly be knocked out in the group stage for the third time in four tries. Unlike Costa Rica, Honduras and Iran are not in terribly difficult groups, but they are just plain bad teams and there is no way around that, so they will likely exit the World Cup early as well. Finally, Algeria and South Korea are in the same group and will play in Porto Alegre with chances to pick up points, but Belgium and Russia are heavy favorites to make it out of group H. I would be more surprised if Algeria, South Korea, Costa Rica, Honduras, Iran, or Australia made it to the quarters than if the next Transformers movie didn't have any autobots, meaning in an odd roundabout way that it is not going to happen.
Although there are some really poor teams featuring in the World Cup from CONCACAF, the CAF, and the AFC (essentially, the confederations are a pseudo NBA Eastern Conference), the regions do have some clubs with the capacity to make a run to the quarterfinals of the tournament. Cameroon and Mexico are both in group A and will more than likely be fighting for the second spot in the group behind Brazil as long as the natural order of the world remains intact. Mexico are the more likely to make it out of the group and have a chance at probably Chile or Netherlands in the round of 16 although Cameroon do have some pretty good individual players with Samuel Eto'o, Pierre Webo, Stephane Mbia, Alex Song, and Benoit Assou-Ekotto. Mexico had very little variety in the offensive third in their horrendous qualifying campaign when they scored just 7 goals in 10 games in the hexagonal. Giovani dos Santos and Oribe Peralta will both have to be less predictable going forward and Javier Hernandez will need to start finishing the opportunities his movement around the box provides for him in order for the Mexicans to reach the final eight teams. Of all the teams outside of Europe and South America, Ivory Coast is the only squad I would pick ahead of the United States and Ghana, but their group of death with Germany and Portugal is just so difficult that making it into the knockout stage would be quite an accomplishment for the clubs, which is why I had them behind Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Mexico, and Japan in terms of likelihood to reach the quarters. The US take on the Black Stars in the first set of games in group G, so if either team suffers a loss in the opening game their hopes of a run past the group stage would certainly be all but over.
Meanwhile, Japan and Ivory Cost, my pick to win group C and then beat Uruguay in the round of 16 to make the final eight, are both in a group that hinges upon Radamel Falcao's availability for Colombia, meaning that the clubs have a chance to make a World Cup run with the uncertainty of the Monaco striker. Everybody knows that Italy have a ton of world class defenders, Spain is stacked in the midfield, but Ivory Coast is actually the team with the best group of strikers in all of the World Cup (Germany, who if they don't play Miroslav Klose may deploy a false nine, could use one of Cote d'Ivoire's forwards). The Elephants have a loaded strike-force of Didier Drogba, Salomon Kalou, Wilfried Bony, Seydou Doumbia, and Lacina Traore all at their expense. This Ivory Coast team is massively talented with Yaye Toure being the orchestrator in the center of midfield, Cheick Tiote of Newcastle playing in behind him, the speedy Gervinho playing on a wing, and Didier Zokora and Kolo Toure solidifying the defense. Will all the talent they have, if Cote d'Ivoire fail once again at a major international tournament, they will be the most disappointing sports team since the 1988 US Men's Basketball Team that lost to the Soviet Union and had to settle for a Bronze in the Olympics. Finally, the Super Eagles, who won the African Cup of Nations in 2013, could make a trip to the quarterfinals, especially since group E of France, Switzerland, Ecuador, and Honduras is not a very strong quartet of teams if Nigeria do happen to make it into the knockout stage. Argentina will more than likely top group F with Iran coming in dead last, so the game between Nigeria and Bosnia and Herzegovina in Cuiaba on June 21 could determine which team will move on to the round of 16 with a fighter's chance to get into the final eight.
What Did We Learn, If Anything, From The United States' 2-0 Friendly Victory Against Azerbaijan?
Let's get this out of the way first, the decision by the US Soccer Federation to play a friendly against Azerbaijan in one of the windiest cities in America at Candlestick Park in San Francisco is the worst decision by an American group since the SEC declined to investigate Bernie Madoff or since the government essentially let Lehman Brothers go bankrupt. The opponent for the US National Team made very little sense unless Klinsmann wanted to give the squad some confidence just 16 days before the World Cup because outside of their midfielder Vagif Javadov, who was apart of the CSKA Moscow youth system, the Azeris did not have a single player on the field with a skill set that was anywhere close to what the United States will be seeing in the World Cup. Azerbaijan's soccer history is about as detailed as the history of Timor-Leste or South Sudan, meaning that it is basically non-existent. In qualification for the 2014 World Cup, the Azeris had their most successful campaign to date and yet they had just one victory, which came over Northern Ireland, a team so bad that they lost to the Netherlands 6-0 in a friendly in Amsterdam in 2012. Looking at Azerbaijan's attempts to qualify for the World Cup in 1998, 2002, 2006, and 2010, and their hopes to make the European Championships in 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012, they have only ever had one single victory away from their home nation in competitive matches, which came over the mighty powerhouse of Liechtenstein in 2010 World Cup qualifying, who make the Oakland Raiders look like a dynasty (they are currently 50th out of 53 teams in UEFA in the FIFA Rankings). More often than not, Azerbaijan had nine or ten guys behind the ball when the US was attacking, which is why the USMNT had 70 percent possession in the game. Although Klinsmann has instilled a sense of confidence in the US players to keep the ball and play out of the back while looking for combinations and balls over the top to the wings much more than Bob Bradley ever emphasized, constant ball possession and quick passing in the midfield is more of a weakness than a strength for the US.
The team is much more suited to play on the counterattack after observing pressure, which is why a club like Azerbaijan that gave the US the ball and waited to see if they could break them down made very little sense for an opposition because things in the World Cup will be much different. Ghana have a lot of midfielders that like to play around with the ball including the Ayew brothers, Kwadwo Asamoah, Michael Essien, Kevin-Prince Boateng, Sulley Muntari, and Emmanuel Agyemang-Badu, so the US will be looking to spring the counter against the Black Stars. When the USMNT take on Portugal in Manaus on June 22, the quickness of the Seleccao with the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Silvestre Varela, Vieirinha, and Nani will put the US under a tremendous amount of pressure, so it will be of the utmost importance for Jozy Altidore to keep hold of the ball when it comes to him up front against the big Portuguese center backs, Bruno Alves and Pepe. Finally, with the midfield that Germany possesses of Schweinsteiger, Khedira, Toni Kroos, Ozil, Gotze, and Draxler (this is considering Podolski, Schurrle, Reus, and Muller as forwards), the most important thing for the US is organization rather than ball possession when they face off against Deutschland in Recife on June 26.
However, we can still get some takeaways from the United States' rather sluggish 2-0 victory over Azerbaijan in one of their final three World Cup tuneups (they are playing Turkey on June 1 at Red Bull Arena and finish up with fellow World Cup team Nigeria on June 7 at EverBank Field in Jacksonville, where the ghost of Blaine Gabbert can be still be found because he doesn't even make Rick Mirer, Joey Harrington, or Tim Couch look like terrible top 10 picks). Under Klinsmann, the United States has had a constantly evolving back four and since Jurgen has used so many different combinations in defense in qualifying and in World Cup tuneups, the back line has had a lack of stability with their inexperience in playing with one another. To begin, a strong central back pairing is vital to World Cup success because international games are typically not as high scoring as club affairs with teams less willing to risk sending too many players forward, especially with the knowledge that a few too many goals allowed in a game could prove costly in the four team round robin in group play if it comes down to goal differential. Therefore, teams like Brazil that have Thiago Silva and David Luiz (or Dante if they want, which is scary), Spain with Pique and Sergio Ramos, Italy that has Chiellini along with Barzagli or Bonucci, France with some duo of Sakho, Varane and Koscielny, Portugal that has Bruno Alves and Pepe, or Germany with some combination of Mertesacker, Boateng, Hummels, and Howedes are at such an advantage because they have a reliable tandem in central defense to keep them in ever game where goals need to be hard to come by.
I think last night's game showed Klinsmann that the best pair of center backs for the United States, which is still a question that needs to be answered before Brazil comes around, are Matt Besler and Geoff Cameron rather than Besler playing with the LA Galaxy's Omar Gonzalez or Hertha Berlin's very inexperienced John Brooks. The left-footed Matt Besler from Sporting KC, who was the MLS Defender of the Year in 2012, is going to start in center defense for Klinsmann, as he is really good with the ball at his feet, as he showed against the Azeris, and has the necessary composure to play in tense situations in the back. Meanwhile, with Marc Wilson and Ryan Shawcross playing in center defense for Stoke City and Mark Hughes having no problem with playing a very large back line of four, Geoff Cameron played primarily as a right back for Stoke in the Premier League this season (Cameron was a big part of a Stoke defense that helped the Stafforshire club finish in the top ten of the top division in English football for the first time since they finished 4th all the way back in 1995-1996). Nonetheless, Klinsmann likes his outside backs to get up and down the field with pace more so than Cameron likes to do and is capable of doing, so the German coach sees the Stoke man more so in center defense, which is where he needs to be next to Besler when the US take on Ghana in northeastern Brazil. At 6-3, Geoff Cameron is physically a commanding presence in defense and is very good in the air, a skill set that will help the US back line with any aerial balls or crosses that should come into the box. Granted it was against Azerbaijan, but Cameron looked very strong in the defense with Besler and very comfortable in the center back role that he has not played too much of in the past few seasons with Stoke.
In terms of outside backs, despite playing some left midfield with TSG 1899 Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga, it makes sense for Klinsmann to play Fabian Johnson at left back, as he did against the Azeris, because he can provide width for the US in attack and can float in crosses with his dangerous left foot. Although Cameron is good at moving the ball around the back, Johnson is much better at getting by defenders in one on one situations and is better suited to play outside back in Klinsmann's system where his defenders are encouraged to get forward. Johnson is the best half back the United States has in its squad and will start in one of the half back roles, so it will be between the Sounders very talented 20-year old DeAndre Yedlin, FC Nurnberg's Timothy Chandler, and the veteran on the squad, DaMarcus Beasley, who has the 5th most international caps in US Soccer history, for the right back spot. All three of the candidates played against Azerbaijan and Beasley, who got the start at one of the half back roles, has the slight edge because of his experience and smarts in anticipation and knowing where to be on the field although Yedlin has the raw speed that is very valuable in a right back.
The most valuable lesson that Klinsmann learned from the United States' game against Azerbaijan was about his back line quartet and the next two games will also serve most importantly as a test run for the US defense and their shape, but there were also some interesting things to note about the US in their more cemented midfield and attacking areas in their 2-0 victory over the Azeris. Klinsmann went with a center mid pairing of Jermaine Jones and Michael Bradley against Azerbaijan although I still think Bradley, who has the keys to the US offense with his distribution abilities, plays his best with Kyle Beckerman of Real Salt Lake playing in behind him. In Klinsmann's system, where the outside backs are encouraged to get forward and join the attack, especially a player that is accustomed to doing so like Fabian Johnson, the US need a strong defensive midfielder to cover for the attacking runs of any player from the back four, which Beckerman does a better job of than Jones. As Jones showed against Azerbaijan, he is pretty good with the ball at his feet in playing to the outside backs and he showed his strength in winning most of the 50-50 balls against the Azeris, but he is too wild and reckless to be that steady holding midfielder for the US team. Jones does have a pretty good strike on him, but it is a blessing and a curse because he can get in on the goals, but it forces Bradley to sometimes play too deep because Jones likes to go forward and join the attack. Since the US need Bradley as high up the field as possible so that he can be the creative engine of the team due to his vision being superb by any standards, Beckerman is more suited to play in the hole behind the midfield and in front of the defense and I am not just saying that because he has great deadlocks (ok, only partly). Much like how Shane Battier knows his role on the Heat to flop around a little bit on defense and stretch the floor for any threes, how Draymond Green will attempt to guard anybody on the floor from the 1 to the 5 to help the Warriors, or how if you get near Erik Karlsson or Jason Spezza Senators enforcer Chris Neil will let you know about it, Beckerman understands his role on the USMNT really well, much better than Jones, and would allow Bradley the freedom he needs in midfield to set up wingers Graham Zusi and Alejandro Bedoya, who I thought had way too many careless giveaways with nobody on him against Azerbaijan, and Dempsey and Altidore up front. Bradley did not take enough risks against Azerbaijan because he needs to be further up the field to be at his best.
Meanwhile, Mikkel Diskerud from the club Rosenborg in Norway showed that he can be a useful sub in midfield with his goal against the Azeris and he will be used along with Brad Davis, who we know is a specialist with his wicked left foot where he can bend balls in from anywhere on a free kick and has a real hammer of a shot, off the bench to supplement the likely starters in the US diamond midfield of Jones or Beckerman, Bradley, Zusi, and Bedoya. The only question that stands is whether Aron Johannsson or Chris Wondolowski will be the first forward to come in when Klinsmann calls on a substitute in Brazil. Despite Altidore's massive struggle in his first year at Sunderland, where he scored just 1 league goal in 30 Premier League appearances, he is going to start for Klinsmann because the US need a big, strong forward up front like the 6-1 Altidore to hold up play and allow the US to release some of the pressure that they will be facing in the group stage from Ghana, Portugal, and Germany. Johannsson did score 17 goals for AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie, the 3rd most in the Dutch league (Jozi scored 23 goals for AZ in 2012-2013 and that didn't really prove to be worth too much of anything for what it is worth), and he has a pretty powerful strike on goal while Wondo could be play the Man United Javier Hernandez role, where he comes in and uses his incredible movement and positioning around the box to score an important goal towards the end of a match (he is always in the right place at the right time as evidenced by the two chances he had off the Zusi free kick and the Bedoya cross in the first half against Azerbaijan and his MLS record tying 27 goals in a single-season, which he set in 2012 with the San Jose Earthquakes due to his ball hawking sense on the field).
Which World Cup Favorites Are In The Most Danger Of Not Making It To The Knockout Stage?
Please don't get me wrong, the World Cup is not even in the same stratosphere as March Madness (the closest thing soccer has had to the 1983 North Carolina St. team that won it all by beating prohibitive favorite Houston in the finals, a team that had future NBA Hall of Famers Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olajuwon on it, after they went a very average 17-10 in the regular season and needed to win the ACC tourney over Michael Jordan and Sam Perkins of North Carolina and Ralph Sampson of Virginia just to get into the Big Dance was when Senegal made it to the quarters in their first ever World Cup in 2002, and yet the Lions of Teranga were still three full victories away from hoisting the trophy), but there is always a certain sense of unexpectedness and fickleness that can be felt at the world's biggest international tournament. The unpredictability of the competition and the fact that one unlucky loss in the group stage can be catastrophic and that the knockout stage is only single elimination lends itself to the fact that no team in the field is safe from being getting knocked out early. Of course, the dream semifinal that so many people have in their pre-World Cup brackets of Brazil against Germany in Belo Horizonte and Argentina facing off against Spain in Sao Paulo is what looks destined to occur on paper, but the best four teams in the world more often than not do not all reach the semifinals of the tournament. In fact, in most sports, except for college football most of the time, the best team so rarely comes away with the title at the end of the season (since 2003, the Columbus Crew in 2008 and the LA Galaxy in 2011 are the only two teams to win the Supporters' Shield and then go on to win the MLS Cup. In the first 13 years that the NCAA began to seed in March Madness from 1979 to 1991, a number 1 seed was only able to take home the championship 4 times, being North Carolina in 1982, Georgetown in 1984, Indiana in 1987 and UNLV in 1990. In the NHL, the Detroit Red Wings in 2007-2008 and the Chicago Blackhawks last year are the only two teams since 2002 to win the Stanley Cup after receiving the Presidents' Trophy that season. Since 1990, the New York Yankees in 1998 and then again in 2009 are the only two teams to have the best outright record in baseball during the regular season and then become World Series winners. Finally, in the last 17 years, only the Patriots in 2004 and the Seahawks last season have had the best or tied for the best record in the NFL regular season and gone on to win the Super Bowl later that year).
All the time in the World Cup we see teams that are favorites to take home the World Cup Trophy not only fall short of winning the world's most important title, like in many other sports, but also failing to even make it out of the group stage, as they go three and out in very disappointing and embarrassing fashion. In 1994, despite it being just their third ever World Cup and only their 2nd in the last 8 possible tournaments since 1966, and never having made it to even the quarterfinals of the big competition, Pele labeled Colombia as one of the favorites for World Cup glory in the Untied States. The Colombians were in their golden generation of football with world class players such as Carlos Valderrama, Faustino Asprilla, Freddy Rincon, and Leonel Alvarez in their squad, who all played a very exciting and attacking brand of soccer. However, after losing 3-1 to Romania, who would eventually make their furthest World Cup run ever with a trip to the quarters, Los Cafeteros let their nerves and external pressures get to them even more than before because they suffered a shock defeat to a much undermatched US team 2-1 that essentially was their World Cup knockout blow (it was literally Andres Escobar's knockout blow because he was killed due to his own goal in the game). While many people picked Argentina to win the World Cup in 2002 (it was Argentina, France, and Brazil as the three favorites in the field) for the first time since they had Diego Maradona running the show in Mexico in 1986, the White and Sky Blue were so poor offensively that they did not even make it out of the group stage for the first time since the 1962 World Cup in Chile when they finished behind Hungary and England in the first round pool play. The much hyped Argentinian team of Walter Samuel, Javier Zanetti, Juan Veron, Hernan Crespo, Gabriel Batistuta, and Ariel Ortega managed to score just 2 goals in their 3 games, tied for their fewest in a single World Cup and they were shockingly sent home after finishing 3rd in the difficult group F due to a 1-0 loss to England behind a David Beckham penalty for the Three Lions and a 1-1 tie to Sweden that was only salvaged by a late Crespo equalizer. Meanwhile, in 2010, coming off of their World Cup triumph over France in penalties in Germany, Italy somehow tied both Paraguay and New Zealand 1-1 and lost to Slovakia 3-2 in the very weak group F, joining just the 1966 Brazil team and 2002 French squad as the only clubs to not move past the first round of the World Cup as defending champions of the tournament. Despite having a roster with 9 players that were crowned World Cup champions just four years before including Buffon, Cannavaro, Zambrotta, Daniele De Rossi, Gattuso, and Pirlo, the Azzurri did not even make the second round of the field for the first time since they finished behind Poland and Argentina in group play in 1974 and they failed to win at least one game at the cup for the first time in 17 trips to the competition.
I could see Netherlands as the team that is favored by many to make a Word Cup run that could leave the tournament before the knockout stage even begins, which would mark the first time since the 1938 World Cup in France that they would participate in the tournament and not make it out of the first round. The Dutch remind me of Argentina in that they have as much offensive talent and playmaking as the 2000 Rams or the 1983-1984 Oilers, but they are very susceptible in their defensive third (a pretty massive difference between the clubs, however, is that Argentina have Lionel Messi and the Netherlands do not although Arjen Robben dribbles enough to make it seem like he is trying to be Messi). Holland can plug in Nigel de Jong in the holding midfield role so that he can fill in any gaps defensively and provide some toughness in the center of the field, but it really comes down to the back five playing as a group in keeping the ball and winning any aerial challenges around the box if the squad want to have anywhere close to a performance like they did in 2010 when they were just 4 minutes away from reaching penalties with Spain for the World Cup title (Iniesta is a name that is not to be uttered in the Netherlands). The future Man United boss Louis van Gaal seems to be leaning towards playing a 5-3-2 formation with the Oranje, which puts even more importance on De Jong staying in the hole when the wing backs go forward and overlap the wingers. Regardless of what kind of tactical shape the Flying Dutchmen were panning on deploying in Brazil, they were going to struggle defensively just because they lack the top class talent that other teams have in their back line, but going to five defenders right before the tournament with very little experience playing in the formation is a very risky move by van Gaal. Although playing with three central defenders against teams like Spain and Chile, clubs that would much rather pass the ball through the middle of the field than swing in crosses, may still yet prove to be effective, Ron Vlaar, Stefan de Vrij, and Bruno Martins Indi are not exactly going to scare the Spanish midfield or the likes of Alexi Sanchez, Arturo Vidal, and Eduardo Vargas on Chile. Spacing in the back could also be an issue for a team like the Dutch that has not played with the formation in a lot of matches prior to their kickoff against Spain on June 13 in a World Cup Finals rematch from Salvador.
Even offensively the Dutch could find some trouble scoring enough goals against Spain and Chile to move on to the knockout stage. Losing Roma box-to-box central midfielder Kevin Strootman to a torn ACL really hurt the Netherlands because the Dutchman was not only a commanding presence in the middle of the field but also had very good vision to find his teammates, and van Gaal got more bad news when Rafael van der Vaart and his very dangerous left foot that is always good for an incredible goal once in a while was ruled out of the World Cup due to a calf injury. The Netherlands Euro 2012 disaster, where they scored just two goals in their three losses to Denmark, Germany, and Portugal in their worst European Championship performance since they were knocked out in the group stage in 1980, showed the lack of offensive cohesion among the many talented attacking players that the Dutch still possess in their squad. If the Oranje want a chance to make it past Spain and Chile in the very difficult group B of the World Cup, their three main offensive players - Wesley Sneijder, Arjen Robben, and Robin van Persie - will all have to be on the same page and willing to play with one another (in other words, they need to have the exact opposite of what Drake details in his song, "Trust Issues").
There are some other high quality clubs, outside of the Netherlands, that have to be careful if they want to make it past the group stage of the World Cup and be the last team standing on July 13 in Rio de Janeiro at the Estadio do Maracana. Amongst the top ten favorites for the world's biggest international tournament that do not include the Dutch, I think that Uruguay is the most likely squad to not make it to the knockout stage. Everything about me picking 2-time World Cup Champions Uruguay to not make the final 16 teams of the field for the first time since they finished behind Denmark and Senegal in group play in 2002 feels wrong on the surface level. Los Charruas made the semifinals of the 2010 World Cup behind a combined ten goals from their offensive trio of Diego Forlan, Luis Suarez, and Edinson Cavani, their best result in the World Cup since they came in 4th place in 1970, won their first Copa America since 1995 when they beat Paraguay 3-0 in the final in 2011, only lost to World Cup favorites Brazil 2-1 on a 86th minute goal from Paulinho in the semifinals of the 2013 Confederations Cup (they also only lost in penalties to Italy in the third place match after a very solid 2-2 tie for 120 minutes), they have two of the best twenty players in the world to score all of their goals with Suarez and Cavani, and if they were to not make it to the knockout stage, it would most likely mean that England would do something they never do, which is overachieve and actually play well in a major international tournament.
However, I just see some flaws in the Uruguayan team that could result in an early exit for La Celeste (in honor of the New York Rangers making their first Stanley Cup Finals since 20 years ago in 1994, a Cup where they would eventually go on to beat the Canucks in seven games for their first title since 1940 when FDR was President, this is my Mark Messier-like guarantee for the World Cup). Suarez is fantastic in all facets of the game and he is coming off a season with Liverpool in which he tied Alan Shearer and Cristiano Ronaldo's record for most goals in a 38 game Premier League season with 31 (he set the Premier League record for best goals to game ratio at 0.94) and became the 6th Liverpool player to win PFA Players' Player of the Year Award, but he had a very suspect surgery on his left meniscus right before the World Cup and even Cavani admitted, "We're all a bit discouraged by what happened [with Suarez]." Suarez's injury is very alarming for a Uruguay team that relies so heavily on his ability to put the ball into the back of the net, especially since Oscar Tabarez has not said if Suarez will be ready for the team's opening game against Costa Rica on June 14 from Fortaleza. Even at full strength, Uruguay were still going to have defensive questions, as only Paraguay, Bolivia, and Peru allowed more goals than La Celeste in South American World Cup qualifying, but with an injured Suarez, even the seemingly dynamic Uruguayan offense could have some troubles in Brazil.
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Looking Back - The Things That I Regret Saying About Kentucky Before The 2014 NCAA Tournament
Note: This is a post that I began to write after the brackets for the 2014 NCAA Tournament came out in March and Kentucky was placed as a 8 seed in the extraordinarily difficult Midwest Regional with Wichita St., Louisville, Duke, and Michigan. Thankfully, I did not post it and forgot about the article (kinda like how everybody in the world has forgotten about Jimmer and his shooting ability, which I am still holding onto), but it is pretty funny to look back at and see how ridiculously wrong I was about Kentucky (never become skeptical of Big Blue Nation, Kevin Love's capacity to miss out on the playoffs, Chris Bosh's three point shooting capabilities, the power of Game of Thrones to shock you, or Jack Bauer's ability to escape certain death every episode). I was making fun of the Wildcats for having such a bad season after such high expectations (they had the worst regular season for a team ranked pre-season number 1 since either the UConn team in 1999-2000 with Khalid El-Amin that finished 25-10 and lost in the second round to Tennessee or the 1979-1980 Indiana team with Isiah Thomas, Butch Carter, and Mike Woodson that is the only club other then this Kentucky squad to fall out of the top 25 after being the pre-season number 1) and then they of course made a run to their second NCAA Championship Game in the last three years and their third Final Four under John Calipari since 2009-2010. Kentucky also became just the fifth 8 seed to reach the Final Four along with North Carolina and Wisconsin in 2000 (lost in the National Semifinals to Jason Richardson, Mateen Cleaves, and Michigan St. and Mike Miller, Udonis Haslem, and Florida respectively), Butler in 2011 (lost to Kemba Walker and UConn in a very poorly played title game), and Villanova in 1985 (beat Georgetown and Patrick Ewing in the famous championship upset by Rollie Massimino). The Wildcats are also now only behind North Carolina and UCLA in terms of Final Fours by school (Tar Heels have 18, Bruins have 17, UK has 16) and are tied with the Bruins for the most National Championship game appearances in college basketball history (both teams have 12). To summarize, I couldn't have been more wrong (this is a statement that Billy King, Ernie Grunfeld, and Reggie McKenzie must have felt like saying over and over).
It seems like yesterday that the college basketball season was just about to begin and some people actually thought that Kentucky could become the first team since the 1975-1976 Indiana Hoosiers team of Scott May, Kent Benson, and Tom Abernethy to go undefeated. Across the Bluegrass state, fans everywhere outside of Louisville and the KFC Yum Center were buying 40-0 t-shirts in honor of the Wildcats (people also thought that the Falcons could finally break through and win their first Super Bowl in franchise history after three straight seasons with more than 10 wins and yet they finished 4-12 in 2013, their fewest wins since 1996, so don't ever listen to pre-season predictions). Obviously, the Wildcats had a really strong recruiting class coming into the season with the likes of Julius Randle (a mix of Zach Randolph and Chris Webber), James Young, Darkari Johnson, the Harrison twins, and Marcus Lee. In the history of college basketball, there have been a lot of really great recruiting classes that have changed the course of the game for the next couple of seasons. In 1965, UCLA brought in Lew Alcindor, Lucius Allen, Ken Heitz, and Lynn Shackelford (a class so good that they beat the varsity team that went 18-8 by 15 in a scrimmage at Pauley Pavilion when freshmen were not allowed to play in their first year in college) and in 1979, Isiah Thomas, Jim Thomas, and Randy Whittman all came to Indiana to play for Bob Knight. Cincinnati's recruiting class when they brought in Oscar Robertson in 1956 or LSU's class when they got Pete Maravich in 1967 are right up there with the best of all-time because those two guards were just that good on their own. Other great classes in the modern era include Michigan's Fab Five of Chris Webber, Jalen Rose, Juwan Howard, Jimmy King, and Ray Jackson from 1991, the 1999 Duke class of Carlos Boozer, Jay Williams, and Mike Dunleavy, Jr., the 2002 North Carolina class of Sean May, Raymond Felton, Rashad McCants, and David Noel, Florida's group of Corey Brewer, Al Horford, Taurean Green, and Joakim Noah from 2004, Ohio State's class of 2006 of Greg Oden, Mike Conley, David Lighty, and Daequan Cook, and finally Calipari's own class of Anthony Davis, Michael-Kidd Gilchrist, Marquis Teague, and Kyle Wiltjer from 2011. No matter how good Kentucky's 2013 recruiting class was made out to be by the high school recruiting experts or the pressure that would be taken off their backs by the return of the super athletic Alex Poythress and the shot-blocking Willie Cauley-Stein, to put them in that conversation without even stepping foot on the floor in Lexington was more absurd than The Plague by Albert Camus. In fact, Kentucky's pursuit of perfection lasted as long as Billy Donovan's coaching career with the Magic, or more aptly, Kim Kardashian and Kris Humphries's marriage.
(You can't even feel bad for Kris Humphries. Why didn't he look at Reggie Bush? From 2007 to 2010 when the USC Heisman Trophy winner - excuse me, the 5-year Heisman Trophy winner before he gave it back - was with Kim Kardashian, Bush never even reached 600 rushing yards in a season with the Saints despite being just the second running back along with Ronnie Brown to go in the first two picks of the NFL draft since 1996. Without the Kardashian syndrome in the last three years, Bush has finished each season with more than 975 rushing yards, one of only six running backs to do so along with Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, Frank Gore, and Chris Johnson. I'm calling this the Kardashian effect, which is the adverse repercussions that an athlete can face from dating a high profile celebrity, a list that includes Tony Romo, Amar'e Stoudemire, Lleyton Hewitt, Andre Agassi, and Diego Forlan. Bush's improvement likely has more to do with the fact that he left the Saints and their group of running backs that is as big as the Spanish Armada and has gotten more than 215 carries every year since then with the Dolphins and Lions, but I refuse to believe that Kim doesn't factor into this equation. However, you can feel bad for Kris Humphries for getting completely Mozgoved by Blake Griffin earlier this season in January, which is a list that now pretty much includes Humphries, Mozgov, Gasol, Perkins, Ibaka, and is expending as fast as the NFL playoffs. The best part about watching Blake's dunk over Humphries over and over is looking at DeAndre Jordan's reaction to the dunk because he looks like he just saw Lincoln get shot by John Wilkes Booth).
Anyway, not only did Kentucky lose in their third game of the season to Michigan St. in the Champions Classic, and end their very short flirt with perfection that so many fans predicted, but they then lost 9 more times after that game in Chicago in the regular season. Their defeats included two losses to Arkansas (the first time Calipari has lost to one team twice in a season at Kentucky before the Wildcats fell three times to Florida later on in the season), once to a team in South Carolina that may have finished six games under .500 because their coach is so scary that they are probably afraid to do anything on the floor, and finally to a LSU team that the Wildcats had not lost to since they had Billy Gillispie as their head coach in 2008-2009 (any Kentucky stat that comes with the line since Billy Gillispie is just destined to not end well unless you consider their most losses in one season since 1989-1990 a step in the right direction). To make matters worse, the Wildcats were 1-6 against ranked opponents with losses to Michigan St., Baylor, North Carolina, and Florida three teams, had only one victory over a team inside the RPI top 40, which came against Louisville at Rupp Arena in December, and were a dismal 5-6 in true road games with their first loss in Columbia, South Carolina since the 2009-2010 season. Even after the Wildcats knocked off Pitino's Cardinals for the 5th time in their last 6 meetings, which is sometimes viewed as more important than the season itself (just ask Bill Curry about the importance of rivalries to a head coach, as the former Alabama coach had to leave Tuscaloosa to coach at Kentucky because despite having a 26-10 record with the Crimson Tide in three seasons and leading them to their first SEC title since Bear Bryant was the coach of the team in 1981, Curry was 0-3 against Auburn in the Iron Bowl, the worst streak against the Tigers since they lost 5 games in a row all the way back from 1954 to 1958), there was a vibe of dissatisfaction and almost sulking coming out of the Kentucky team.
You can look at so many different reasons why this Kentucky squad became just the 15th Wildcats team in the last 83 years dating back to when Adolph Rupp took over the program in 1930 to lose at least 10 regular season games in a season (just for fun, in comparison, Northwestern has had 73 regular seasons with at least 10 losses since 1930 including every year since 1958-1959. I'm not sure what is worse for the Collins family: Doug losing the Gold Medal to the USSR in that very controversial 1972 Olympic Game in Munich or Chris having to coach Northwestern). Obviously, this season was the year of the freshmen with everybody falling in love with the standout first year players from across the nation including Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid, and Wayne Selden from Kansas, Jabari Parker of Duke, Aaron Gordon and Rondae-Hollis Jefferson from Arizona, Tyler Ennis at Syracuse, and Noah Vonleh from Indiana, which may have factored into people overrating just how good Kentucky's freshmen really were from the start of the season (other freshmen classes that can compete with this year include the 1979 class of Isiah Thomas, James Worthy, Ralph Sampson, Dominique Wilkins, Byron Scott, and Quintin Dailey, the 1981 class of Michael Jordan, Charles Barkley, Patrick Ewing, Chris Mullin, Ed Pinckney, and Sam Vincent and the 2007 class of Kevin Love, Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin, James Harden, Eric Gordon, DeAndre Jordan, and Michael Beasley).
Aside from Julius Randle, whose college basketball leading 24 double-doubles as a freshmen has only been surpassed by a first year player once since 1980 when Michael Beasley had a NCAA record 28 double-doubles for Kansas St. and Bob Huggins in 2007-2008, Kentucky's freshmen class was nowhere near what most people expected from it. For as much hype as the Harrisons got for being the best twin combination since the Sedins, the Barbers, or the Bryans, Andrew and Aaron played much more like the Morris or Collins twins than the Arsdale brothers with Kentucky this season. Andrew does more of the ball handling for the Wildcats at point while Aaron plays more so on the wing, but the Wildcats back-court pairing was often exploited by top guards like Keith Appling and Gary Harris from Michigan St. (scored a combined 42 points against the Wildcats), Marcus Paige from North Carolina (scored 23 points versus the Harrisons), and Scottie Wilbekin and Michael Frazier II from Florida (held the Harrisons to 18 combined points in their game in Gainesville). Andrew had the lowest assist-to-turnover ration among any player in a major college basketball conference and averaged nearly 3 turnovers per contest, and Aaron was not very assertive and refused to attack the rim in becoming purely an outside shooter, as in the 11 games where he scored 10 points or less, he shot a terrible 8-44 (18.1%) from three. Although the Harrisons both possess tremendous size for perimeters players and their 6-6 frame allows them to be disruptive defensively when they set their minds to it, they were often times not explosive enough to get by players and make plays offensively. Meanwhile, James Young is a good three point shooter for the Wildcats, but only Marshall Henderson from Ole Miss, Sean Kilpatrick from Cincinnati, Michael Frazier from Florida, Brady Heslip from Baylor, Ben Brust from Wisconsin, and Trevor Cooney from Syracuse took more threes than Young this season from teams in major conferences, which is somewhat concerning because Young morphed into solely a jump shooter, much like Aaron. Although Young does have a quick release to get his smooth looking jump shot off before defenders can close down on him, he can't really create his own shot, which hurts the Wildcats because Andrew often struggles to put his teammates into good positions to make plays. Marcus Lee dunks everything he can get his hands on off the backboard, but he has not seen a lot of action this season and Darkari Johnson is a big 7-footer that does have a basis for a good post game, but he is still developing and is only 18 years old.
It also seemed as if the Kentucky players thought that they would just roll through teams during the season and that when that didn't happen, they lost confidence because the Wildcats did not have the same fight that Calipari's 2011-2012 team so often showed and that was more reminiscent of the disaster that happened in Lexington last season with the unreliable Archie Goodwin leading the way. The thing that made the Anthony Davis team just so good, aside from the fact that they had Davis and everybody else didn't (there were some real good teams that year if you remember with Scoop Jardine, MCW, Dion Waiters, C.J. Fair, and Kris Joseph on Cuse, Kendall Marshall, John Henson, Reggie Bullock, Harrison Barnes, James McAdoo, and Tyler Zeller down in North Carolina, Aaron Craft, Deshaun Thomas, Jared Sullinger on Ohio St., and the Kansas team of Thomas Robinson, Tyshawn Taylor, and Jeff Withey), was that everybody in that UK group worked so hard defensively for one another. Whether it was defensive rotations, MKG switching onto a big man and having to guard him in the post, or Darius Miller taking on the opposing teams best player every night, that Kentucky team did whatever it had to do. However, this year's Wildcats squad has some real defensive deficiencies, as James Young is not particularly quick on the perimeter or strong enough to guard players inside at the four position and for as good as Julius Randle is offensively and in his mid-range game, he does not have real good ball awareness and he is not the best interior defender. The Wildcats rely to much on Willie-Cauley Stein and their length to block and change shots around the lane, which can work on occasion because Kentucky is just flat out more athletic than every team they play (the Wildcats are 10th in the nation in blocks per game with almost 6 each contest), but constantly letting guys into the paint is not a recipe for success no matter what. LSU is the only team in the SEC that allows more points from 2-pointers than Kentucky and despite their unmatched athleticism and size, Kentucky is 300th in the nation in forcing their opponents to turn over the ball, ahead of only Tennessee and Missouri in the SEC.
It has been an incredible college basketball season, one of the best in recent memory (I feel like I say this every year, but I actually mean it this time. Nonetheless, I guarantee you I will say the same thing next season when Coach K has his best Duke team since the days of Jay Williams and Carlos Boozer with his recruiting class of Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow, and Grayson Allen, Kansas brings in Cliff Alexander and Kelly Oubre to go with Wayne Selden and Perry Ellis, Kentucky reloads with whatever freshmen come back along with recruits Trey Lyles, Karl Towns, Devin Booker, and Tyler Ulis, SMU brings in a player that is better than anybody Larry Brown coached with the Bobcats from 2008-2010 with 6-5 point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, and Arizona and Wisconsin return loaded cores). We were able to see the individual greatness of players across the nation, including Doug McDermott, who now ranks behind only Pete Maravich of LSU, Freeman Williams from Portland St., La Salle's Lionel Simmons, and Alphonso Ford of Mississippi Valley State in career points in division I history, and also the outstanding play of freshmen like Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid, and Tyler Ennis. We were also fortunate enough to watch a team like Virginia win the ACC regular season and post-season titles and have their best year since the days of Ralph Sampson and Wichita St. become the first team since the 1990-1991 UNLV squad of Larry Johnson, Stacey Augmon, Greg Anthony, and Elmore Spencer to enter the NCAA tournament with an undefeated record. It was a great year for college basketball fans across the nation, except for in Lexington, where pre-season expectations of a 40-0 season have changed to people not being surprised if the Wildcats lose to Kansas St. in their first game of the tourney, and Calipari falling for the first time in the big dance since his Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones, and Doron Lamb squad lost in the Final Four to Kemba Walker and UConn back in 2011.
Note: After spending around 2,500 words bashing Kentucky for their disappointment of a season in going 24-10, they of course proved me wrong and taught me to never count out a team that has a starting line-up where every player is at least 6-6 and a McDonald's All-American. I should have known better then to think that Kansas St. could actually beat UK because the Wildcats have only won more than one game in the tournament once since 1989 when they made the Elite Eight with Jacob Pullen in 2010 (even the Mets, Jets, White Sox, and Michigan St. think that Kansas St. is a pretty obvious little brother to Kansas). I'm still not sure how Kentucky beat Wichita St. in their second game of the tourney in the 1-8 match-up, a game that was undoubtedly one of the best played NCAA tournament contests over the past few decades (Kentucky's win marked the fourth year out of the last five that a one seed has lost before the Sweet 16 with the others being when Northern Iowa knocked off Kansas in 2010, when Butler beat Pittsburgh in 2011, and when Gonzaga fell to Wichita St. in 2013). UK somehow knocked off the undefeated Shockers despite the fact that Wichita St. shot 55.1 percent from the floor, the 4th highest for any opponent against Calipari since he came to Lexington in 2009-2010, made 10 of 21 three pointers, averaged a ridiculously high 1.215 points per possession, the 2nd highest rate against Kentucky's defense all season long, and had Cleanthony Early score a season high 31 points on 12 of 17 shooting. Kentucky then turned to Aaron Harrison, who somehow morphed into Bryce Drew/Christian Laettner/Kenton Paulino/Drew Nicholas overnight and not once, not twice, but three times saved Kentucky with late three point clutch jump shots, all of which came from nearly the identical spot on the left side of the floor. Against Louisville in the Midwest Regional semifinals, down by one point with under a minute left, Russ Smith left Harrison open in the corner and he took a pass from Randle and knocked down the three to give UK the victory. In the elite eight against Michigan, with the game tied at 72, Aaron took a hand-off from his brother and hit a three over Caris LeVert with 2 seconds left to send the Wildcats to the Final Four. Finally, in the National Semifinals versus Wisconsin and with Kentucky down by two with 5 seconds left, Aaron hit literally the exact same three pointer to give the Wildcats the lead and the eventual win (if you want to see deja vu, don't watch the movie with Denzel Washington, but watch the final minute of Kentucky's games against Louisville, Michigan, and Wisconsin). The Wildcats run did come to an end when they were not able to get enough offense in the title game against a deserved National Champion in Shabazz Napier, Ryan Boatright, DeAndre Daniels and UConn, but they proved to never count a team out until they have been knocked out. With that knowledge in mind, I think the Pacers growing dysfunction will be the reason why they will lose in the winner-take-all game 7 against the undermatched Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference first round, but there is a pretty good chance that I will be writing a piece in June with the title, "Looking Back - The Things I Regret Saying About The Indiana Pacers Before The Eastern Conference Semifinals Even Began."
It seems like yesterday that the college basketball season was just about to begin and some people actually thought that Kentucky could become the first team since the 1975-1976 Indiana Hoosiers team of Scott May, Kent Benson, and Tom Abernethy to go undefeated. Across the Bluegrass state, fans everywhere outside of Louisville and the KFC Yum Center were buying 40-0 t-shirts in honor of the Wildcats (people also thought that the Falcons could finally break through and win their first Super Bowl in franchise history after three straight seasons with more than 10 wins and yet they finished 4-12 in 2013, their fewest wins since 1996, so don't ever listen to pre-season predictions). Obviously, the Wildcats had a really strong recruiting class coming into the season with the likes of Julius Randle (a mix of Zach Randolph and Chris Webber), James Young, Darkari Johnson, the Harrison twins, and Marcus Lee. In the history of college basketball, there have been a lot of really great recruiting classes that have changed the course of the game for the next couple of seasons. In 1965, UCLA brought in Lew Alcindor, Lucius Allen, Ken Heitz, and Lynn Shackelford (a class so good that they beat the varsity team that went 18-8 by 15 in a scrimmage at Pauley Pavilion when freshmen were not allowed to play in their first year in college) and in 1979, Isiah Thomas, Jim Thomas, and Randy Whittman all came to Indiana to play for Bob Knight. Cincinnati's recruiting class when they brought in Oscar Robertson in 1956 or LSU's class when they got Pete Maravich in 1967 are right up there with the best of all-time because those two guards were just that good on their own. Other great classes in the modern era include Michigan's Fab Five of Chris Webber, Jalen Rose, Juwan Howard, Jimmy King, and Ray Jackson from 1991, the 1999 Duke class of Carlos Boozer, Jay Williams, and Mike Dunleavy, Jr., the 2002 North Carolina class of Sean May, Raymond Felton, Rashad McCants, and David Noel, Florida's group of Corey Brewer, Al Horford, Taurean Green, and Joakim Noah from 2004, Ohio State's class of 2006 of Greg Oden, Mike Conley, David Lighty, and Daequan Cook, and finally Calipari's own class of Anthony Davis, Michael-Kidd Gilchrist, Marquis Teague, and Kyle Wiltjer from 2011. No matter how good Kentucky's 2013 recruiting class was made out to be by the high school recruiting experts or the pressure that would be taken off their backs by the return of the super athletic Alex Poythress and the shot-blocking Willie Cauley-Stein, to put them in that conversation without even stepping foot on the floor in Lexington was more absurd than The Plague by Albert Camus. In fact, Kentucky's pursuit of perfection lasted as long as Billy Donovan's coaching career with the Magic, or more aptly, Kim Kardashian and Kris Humphries's marriage.
(You can't even feel bad for Kris Humphries. Why didn't he look at Reggie Bush? From 2007 to 2010 when the USC Heisman Trophy winner - excuse me, the 5-year Heisman Trophy winner before he gave it back - was with Kim Kardashian, Bush never even reached 600 rushing yards in a season with the Saints despite being just the second running back along with Ronnie Brown to go in the first two picks of the NFL draft since 1996. Without the Kardashian syndrome in the last three years, Bush has finished each season with more than 975 rushing yards, one of only six running backs to do so along with Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, Frank Gore, and Chris Johnson. I'm calling this the Kardashian effect, which is the adverse repercussions that an athlete can face from dating a high profile celebrity, a list that includes Tony Romo, Amar'e Stoudemire, Lleyton Hewitt, Andre Agassi, and Diego Forlan. Bush's improvement likely has more to do with the fact that he left the Saints and their group of running backs that is as big as the Spanish Armada and has gotten more than 215 carries every year since then with the Dolphins and Lions, but I refuse to believe that Kim doesn't factor into this equation. However, you can feel bad for Kris Humphries for getting completely Mozgoved by Blake Griffin earlier this season in January, which is a list that now pretty much includes Humphries, Mozgov, Gasol, Perkins, Ibaka, and is expending as fast as the NFL playoffs. The best part about watching Blake's dunk over Humphries over and over is looking at DeAndre Jordan's reaction to the dunk because he looks like he just saw Lincoln get shot by John Wilkes Booth).
Anyway, not only did Kentucky lose in their third game of the season to Michigan St. in the Champions Classic, and end their very short flirt with perfection that so many fans predicted, but they then lost 9 more times after that game in Chicago in the regular season. Their defeats included two losses to Arkansas (the first time Calipari has lost to one team twice in a season at Kentucky before the Wildcats fell three times to Florida later on in the season), once to a team in South Carolina that may have finished six games under .500 because their coach is so scary that they are probably afraid to do anything on the floor, and finally to a LSU team that the Wildcats had not lost to since they had Billy Gillispie as their head coach in 2008-2009 (any Kentucky stat that comes with the line since Billy Gillispie is just destined to not end well unless you consider their most losses in one season since 1989-1990 a step in the right direction). To make matters worse, the Wildcats were 1-6 against ranked opponents with losses to Michigan St., Baylor, North Carolina, and Florida three teams, had only one victory over a team inside the RPI top 40, which came against Louisville at Rupp Arena in December, and were a dismal 5-6 in true road games with their first loss in Columbia, South Carolina since the 2009-2010 season. Even after the Wildcats knocked off Pitino's Cardinals for the 5th time in their last 6 meetings, which is sometimes viewed as more important than the season itself (just ask Bill Curry about the importance of rivalries to a head coach, as the former Alabama coach had to leave Tuscaloosa to coach at Kentucky because despite having a 26-10 record with the Crimson Tide in three seasons and leading them to their first SEC title since Bear Bryant was the coach of the team in 1981, Curry was 0-3 against Auburn in the Iron Bowl, the worst streak against the Tigers since they lost 5 games in a row all the way back from 1954 to 1958), there was a vibe of dissatisfaction and almost sulking coming out of the Kentucky team.
You can look at so many different reasons why this Kentucky squad became just the 15th Wildcats team in the last 83 years dating back to when Adolph Rupp took over the program in 1930 to lose at least 10 regular season games in a season (just for fun, in comparison, Northwestern has had 73 regular seasons with at least 10 losses since 1930 including every year since 1958-1959. I'm not sure what is worse for the Collins family: Doug losing the Gold Medal to the USSR in that very controversial 1972 Olympic Game in Munich or Chris having to coach Northwestern). Obviously, this season was the year of the freshmen with everybody falling in love with the standout first year players from across the nation including Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid, and Wayne Selden from Kansas, Jabari Parker of Duke, Aaron Gordon and Rondae-Hollis Jefferson from Arizona, Tyler Ennis at Syracuse, and Noah Vonleh from Indiana, which may have factored into people overrating just how good Kentucky's freshmen really were from the start of the season (other freshmen classes that can compete with this year include the 1979 class of Isiah Thomas, James Worthy, Ralph Sampson, Dominique Wilkins, Byron Scott, and Quintin Dailey, the 1981 class of Michael Jordan, Charles Barkley, Patrick Ewing, Chris Mullin, Ed Pinckney, and Sam Vincent and the 2007 class of Kevin Love, Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin, James Harden, Eric Gordon, DeAndre Jordan, and Michael Beasley).
Aside from Julius Randle, whose college basketball leading 24 double-doubles as a freshmen has only been surpassed by a first year player once since 1980 when Michael Beasley had a NCAA record 28 double-doubles for Kansas St. and Bob Huggins in 2007-2008, Kentucky's freshmen class was nowhere near what most people expected from it. For as much hype as the Harrisons got for being the best twin combination since the Sedins, the Barbers, or the Bryans, Andrew and Aaron played much more like the Morris or Collins twins than the Arsdale brothers with Kentucky this season. Andrew does more of the ball handling for the Wildcats at point while Aaron plays more so on the wing, but the Wildcats back-court pairing was often exploited by top guards like Keith Appling and Gary Harris from Michigan St. (scored a combined 42 points against the Wildcats), Marcus Paige from North Carolina (scored 23 points versus the Harrisons), and Scottie Wilbekin and Michael Frazier II from Florida (held the Harrisons to 18 combined points in their game in Gainesville). Andrew had the lowest assist-to-turnover ration among any player in a major college basketball conference and averaged nearly 3 turnovers per contest, and Aaron was not very assertive and refused to attack the rim in becoming purely an outside shooter, as in the 11 games where he scored 10 points or less, he shot a terrible 8-44 (18.1%) from three. Although the Harrisons both possess tremendous size for perimeters players and their 6-6 frame allows them to be disruptive defensively when they set their minds to it, they were often times not explosive enough to get by players and make plays offensively. Meanwhile, James Young is a good three point shooter for the Wildcats, but only Marshall Henderson from Ole Miss, Sean Kilpatrick from Cincinnati, Michael Frazier from Florida, Brady Heslip from Baylor, Ben Brust from Wisconsin, and Trevor Cooney from Syracuse took more threes than Young this season from teams in major conferences, which is somewhat concerning because Young morphed into solely a jump shooter, much like Aaron. Although Young does have a quick release to get his smooth looking jump shot off before defenders can close down on him, he can't really create his own shot, which hurts the Wildcats because Andrew often struggles to put his teammates into good positions to make plays. Marcus Lee dunks everything he can get his hands on off the backboard, but he has not seen a lot of action this season and Darkari Johnson is a big 7-footer that does have a basis for a good post game, but he is still developing and is only 18 years old.
It also seemed as if the Kentucky players thought that they would just roll through teams during the season and that when that didn't happen, they lost confidence because the Wildcats did not have the same fight that Calipari's 2011-2012 team so often showed and that was more reminiscent of the disaster that happened in Lexington last season with the unreliable Archie Goodwin leading the way. The thing that made the Anthony Davis team just so good, aside from the fact that they had Davis and everybody else didn't (there were some real good teams that year if you remember with Scoop Jardine, MCW, Dion Waiters, C.J. Fair, and Kris Joseph on Cuse, Kendall Marshall, John Henson, Reggie Bullock, Harrison Barnes, James McAdoo, and Tyler Zeller down in North Carolina, Aaron Craft, Deshaun Thomas, Jared Sullinger on Ohio St., and the Kansas team of Thomas Robinson, Tyshawn Taylor, and Jeff Withey), was that everybody in that UK group worked so hard defensively for one another. Whether it was defensive rotations, MKG switching onto a big man and having to guard him in the post, or Darius Miller taking on the opposing teams best player every night, that Kentucky team did whatever it had to do. However, this year's Wildcats squad has some real defensive deficiencies, as James Young is not particularly quick on the perimeter or strong enough to guard players inside at the four position and for as good as Julius Randle is offensively and in his mid-range game, he does not have real good ball awareness and he is not the best interior defender. The Wildcats rely to much on Willie-Cauley Stein and their length to block and change shots around the lane, which can work on occasion because Kentucky is just flat out more athletic than every team they play (the Wildcats are 10th in the nation in blocks per game with almost 6 each contest), but constantly letting guys into the paint is not a recipe for success no matter what. LSU is the only team in the SEC that allows more points from 2-pointers than Kentucky and despite their unmatched athleticism and size, Kentucky is 300th in the nation in forcing their opponents to turn over the ball, ahead of only Tennessee and Missouri in the SEC.
It has been an incredible college basketball season, one of the best in recent memory (I feel like I say this every year, but I actually mean it this time. Nonetheless, I guarantee you I will say the same thing next season when Coach K has his best Duke team since the days of Jay Williams and Carlos Boozer with his recruiting class of Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow, and Grayson Allen, Kansas brings in Cliff Alexander and Kelly Oubre to go with Wayne Selden and Perry Ellis, Kentucky reloads with whatever freshmen come back along with recruits Trey Lyles, Karl Towns, Devin Booker, and Tyler Ulis, SMU brings in a player that is better than anybody Larry Brown coached with the Bobcats from 2008-2010 with 6-5 point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, and Arizona and Wisconsin return loaded cores). We were able to see the individual greatness of players across the nation, including Doug McDermott, who now ranks behind only Pete Maravich of LSU, Freeman Williams from Portland St., La Salle's Lionel Simmons, and Alphonso Ford of Mississippi Valley State in career points in division I history, and also the outstanding play of freshmen like Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid, and Tyler Ennis. We were also fortunate enough to watch a team like Virginia win the ACC regular season and post-season titles and have their best year since the days of Ralph Sampson and Wichita St. become the first team since the 1990-1991 UNLV squad of Larry Johnson, Stacey Augmon, Greg Anthony, and Elmore Spencer to enter the NCAA tournament with an undefeated record. It was a great year for college basketball fans across the nation, except for in Lexington, where pre-season expectations of a 40-0 season have changed to people not being surprised if the Wildcats lose to Kansas St. in their first game of the tourney, and Calipari falling for the first time in the big dance since his Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones, and Doron Lamb squad lost in the Final Four to Kemba Walker and UConn back in 2011.
Note: After spending around 2,500 words bashing Kentucky for their disappointment of a season in going 24-10, they of course proved me wrong and taught me to never count out a team that has a starting line-up where every player is at least 6-6 and a McDonald's All-American. I should have known better then to think that Kansas St. could actually beat UK because the Wildcats have only won more than one game in the tournament once since 1989 when they made the Elite Eight with Jacob Pullen in 2010 (even the Mets, Jets, White Sox, and Michigan St. think that Kansas St. is a pretty obvious little brother to Kansas). I'm still not sure how Kentucky beat Wichita St. in their second game of the tourney in the 1-8 match-up, a game that was undoubtedly one of the best played NCAA tournament contests over the past few decades (Kentucky's win marked the fourth year out of the last five that a one seed has lost before the Sweet 16 with the others being when Northern Iowa knocked off Kansas in 2010, when Butler beat Pittsburgh in 2011, and when Gonzaga fell to Wichita St. in 2013). UK somehow knocked off the undefeated Shockers despite the fact that Wichita St. shot 55.1 percent from the floor, the 4th highest for any opponent against Calipari since he came to Lexington in 2009-2010, made 10 of 21 three pointers, averaged a ridiculously high 1.215 points per possession, the 2nd highest rate against Kentucky's defense all season long, and had Cleanthony Early score a season high 31 points on 12 of 17 shooting. Kentucky then turned to Aaron Harrison, who somehow morphed into Bryce Drew/Christian Laettner/Kenton Paulino/Drew Nicholas overnight and not once, not twice, but three times saved Kentucky with late three point clutch jump shots, all of which came from nearly the identical spot on the left side of the floor. Against Louisville in the Midwest Regional semifinals, down by one point with under a minute left, Russ Smith left Harrison open in the corner and he took a pass from Randle and knocked down the three to give UK the victory. In the elite eight against Michigan, with the game tied at 72, Aaron took a hand-off from his brother and hit a three over Caris LeVert with 2 seconds left to send the Wildcats to the Final Four. Finally, in the National Semifinals versus Wisconsin and with Kentucky down by two with 5 seconds left, Aaron hit literally the exact same three pointer to give the Wildcats the lead and the eventual win (if you want to see deja vu, don't watch the movie with Denzel Washington, but watch the final minute of Kentucky's games against Louisville, Michigan, and Wisconsin). The Wildcats run did come to an end when they were not able to get enough offense in the title game against a deserved National Champion in Shabazz Napier, Ryan Boatright, DeAndre Daniels and UConn, but they proved to never count a team out until they have been knocked out. With that knowledge in mind, I think the Pacers growing dysfunction will be the reason why they will lose in the winner-take-all game 7 against the undermatched Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference first round, but there is a pretty good chance that I will be writing a piece in June with the title, "Looking Back - The Things I Regret Saying About The Indiana Pacers Before The Eastern Conference Semifinals Even Began."
Wednesday, April 2, 2014
2014 MLB Preview Part 2 - National League Breakdown
NL East Preview:
The Phillies and Braves have dominated the NL East since the division was formed in 1969, winning 18 of the 20 division titles over the past two decades, but it is not as impressive since they are competing against the Mets and the Marlins every year. The Mets have been to the playoffs just 7 times in 52 seasons since 1962, and in very Mets-like fashion, they somehow managed to blow a 7 game division lead with 17 games to go in 2007, finishing 5-12 over their final stretch of the season. There is also just something about the Mets that makes you feel like they will always let you down, or they will manage to give away all of their money to some guy running a ponzi scheme (the only owner that fell for a worse mistake was Jerry Jones when he drafted Bobby Carpenter in 2007). Meanwhile, the Marlins organization is symbolized by their transition from the 1997 season, when they won their first ever franchise World Series, to the 1998 year, where they traded Moises Alou to the Astros, Gary Sheffield to the Dodgers, Mike Piazza and Al Leiter to the Mets, and Kevin Brown to the Padres and finished with 108 losses. The division this year, however, is not going to be won by any of the preceding teams that were just mentioned, but rather by my pick to play against the Red Sox in the 2014 World Series, the Washington Nationals.
Washington Nationals Preview:
The Nationals have one of the best pitching rotations on paper that we have seen for several years in the big leagues. While sports are obviously not played on paper, or else Villanova would not have beaten Patrick Ewing and Georgetown in the 1985 NCAA Championship Game, the Nats have enough arms to pitch their way to a division title. Stephen Strasburg has been mildly disappointing over his first four years for a pitcher with his talent and his velocity, but he is more than capable of being a CY Young caliber pitcher. Many pitchers who have had Tommy John surgery on their arm, like Strasburg had in 2010 towards the end of his rookie season, have actually come back just as good, if not better, after getting the operation. John Lackey is the most notable example, as the Sox pitcher missed the 2012 season and then came back with his best year since 2009 to help Boston win the World Series (I have to bring it up as much as I can). Another example is John Smoltz, who after getting Tommy John in 2000, set the mark for the most saves in NL history with 55 in 2002 (he shares the record today with Eric Gagne). However, there are some instances where pitchers have not been able to return to their form before the surgery. While Ben Sheets was nearing the end of his career with the Brewers, the operation seemed to have a negative impact on his pitching abilities (after making two straight All-Star games and finishing with the 5th best NL ERA in 2008, Sheets was 4-9 in the year after getting his surgery). It remains to be seen what end of the spectrum Strasburg will fall on, but even though he hasn't looked as good as he did in the early parts of his rookie year, he can still be one of the best pitchers in baseball. Strasburg's fastball can still hit the mid 90's and it allows him to set up his very good changeup and curveball low in the zone for strikeouts, as he led all major league pitchers with a minimum of 150 innings pitched in 2012 in k/9.
The Nats rotation just starts with Strasburg though, as Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, and Doug Fister give Washington a World Series caliber pitching staff. Zimmermann is the most underrated pitcher in the major leagues, the most underrated pitcher, the most underrated pitcher (if I say it enough times maybe people will start to notice him). In the last three years, only Kershaw, Cliff Lee, and Madison Bumgarner have had a lower ERA than Zimmermann for NL pitchers with at least 90 starts and he was tied for the National League lead in wins last season with Adam Wainwright. Although the Nats are sometimes a little too conservative with his pitch count (brings back memories of Strasburg in 2012), Zimmermann still had 16 starts where he went 7 innings and allowed 2 runs or less in 2013. Gio is another guy that has been just great for the Nats over the past two years. He led the NL in wins, fielding independent pitching, and k/9 in 2012, the third NL pitcher to do so since John Smoltz in 1996 and Jake Peavy in 2007 (both of them won the Cy Young in those respective years). Gio has a curveball with a ton of downward movement, giving him the 4th highest curveball value over the last two years according to fangraphs behind only Kershaw, Wainwright, and Strasburg (ahead of Verlander). The Nationals also became the first team to win a trade with Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski when they picked up Doug Fister this off-season. I know that Detroit got a good young left arm with Robbie Ray, but Fister is just such a consistent pitcher, as his 2.38 ERA in 2011 with the Mariners and Tigers was 4th best in the AL and only Verlander, Sale, Price, Shields, and Felix have had a lower ERA than Fister among AL pitchers with at least 90 pitching appearances over the last three years.
The Nationals run production will be their biggest hurdle in winning their first playoff series since they were still in Montreal in 1981 (the only worst franchise in Canada was the Vancouver Grizzlies). Bryce Harper can hit the ball a country mile (it was reported he hit a 570 foot homer in high school) and at age 21, he is only just getting started. Harper has shown signs over his first two years that he can be a guy to hit 40 home runs with something like a .600 slugging percentage, as he hit at least 20 home runs with better than a .200 isolated power in 2011 and 2012. Bryce is fearless at the plate and he takes some of the biggest cuts on the ball that I have ever seen because of his incredible bat speed. He could be a little more patient and disciplined at the plate (his BB% was under 10 in 2012), but you do have to remember that he is quite mature for somebody that is younger than DeMarcus Cousins. Harper is also one of those guys that is always hustling and taking extra bases or throwing guys out from the outfield in a heads up manner (I feel like I needed to add "in a heads up manner" because Yasiel Puig does the same things on the field except it is almost always in a reckless and risky manner, much like his journey to the United States). As much as Harper may be the closest thing that the major leagues has to a five tool player along with Mike Trout and Carlos Gonzalez, the Nats will need Jayson Werth, Ian Desmond, and Wilson Ramos to continue to hit (they combined for 61 home runs last season), slugger Ryan Zimmerman to stay healthy and drive in 100 runs (he has had a WAR of nearly 4 and a OPS well above .800 each of the last two years), second basemen Anthony Rendon to rise to prominence (he is one of baseball's top prospects), and Adam LaRoche to literally do anything (he hit .237 in 2013 after finishing 2012 with 33 home runs, 100 RBI's, and a 6th place spot in the NL MVP voting). You know baseball contracts are just ridiculous when a guy like Jayson Werth, who is an above average hitter but not much more, is getting paid 18 million dollars a season. At least the Nats can take some solace in the fact that Werth is hitting fairly well and that they did not sign A-Rod to a 275 million dollar deal or that they are not associated with the New York Knicks in any manner (small victories sometimes go a long way).
Atlanta Braves Preview:
Going into this off-season, it looked as if the Braves would have a fairly easy time making the playoffs for the 18th time in the last 24 seasons since 1991, but then players began to fall left and right. For the second time in his career, Kris Medlen needed Tommy John surgery, so the Braves lost a pitcher who was 10-1 in 2012 and had a 3.11 ERA in 2013. Shortly thereafter, Brandon Beachy joined Medlen as pitchers to get their second Tommy John surgery (a club that is unfortunately growing at a very fast rate), costing the Braves another top end starting pitcher for the season and somebody who had a 2.1 WAR in 2012 and has a very solid 3.23 career ERA. These injuries came on top of the fact that the Braves lost the always consistent Tim Hudson to the San Francisco Giants (try to found somebody that seems angrier playing sports than Huddy. Maybe Jake Peavy or Kendrick Perkins). Even with all of your rotation intact, it is very hard to replace a guy that finished 4th in the Cy Young in 2010 and is third in NL wins since 2010 behind only Kershaw (should be a given) and Yovani Gallardo (a little bit surprising), but it becomes nearly impossible to have a solid rotation when you lose your top three starters for the entire season and have B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla on your team. The Braves are now left to rely on Ervin Santana (Phil Jackson as the President of a NBA team is the only thing more frightening than Ervin Santana as a club's top starter). Mike Minor, who will begin the season on the DL, Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, and Gavin Floyd, once he returns from the Tommy John surgery he had last year, will fill out a very questionable Braves starting rotation. After finishing with the league's lowest ERA last year at 3.18, Atlanta could have some trouble this season if their pitching falters and they need Dan Uggla and B.J. Upton to actually do something.
Despite some of their obvious starting pitching problems due to some key injuries, it is undeniable that the Braves have a very good bullpen to help them close out games. Craig Kimbrel does not get enough credit for just how good he is in the 9th inning of games. From a pure aesthetics standpoint, Kimbrel is just beautiful to watch because he can threw gas with his high 90's fastball but he also has one of the best curveballs in all of baseball that has allowed him to have a ridiculous strikeout percentage of better than 38% every year since 2010. Kimbrel has been at the top of the NL in saves for three straight seasons and his 50 saves last year were the 7th most in NL history. Since 2011, Kimbrel has 138 saves and just 15 blown saves, has a 1.48 ERA and a 1.43 FIP, and has finished in the top 10 of the NL Cy Young voting ever year. As a team, the Braves have had a top 3 bullpen ERA every year since 2010 and much should remain the same this season with guys like David Carpenter, Luis Avilan, and Jordan Walden in front of Kimbrel to help Atlanta's rotation.
I've been fearing this all day, but I now have to talk about the Braves very talented but underperforming lineup, which means that everybody is going to have to sit through looking at the heinous numbers of B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla (it is a worse site than Dresden). Atlanta does have Freddie Freeman in the middle of their order to keep some things in order. Aside from possibly Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto, I'm not sure if there is a first basemen I would take ahead of Freddie Freeman (on second thought, possibly Paul Goldschmidt but I would have to think about that one). He finished 5th in NL MVP voting last season, and deservedly so, because Freeman was 2nd in the NL in RBI's with 109, 3rd in batting average at .319, 6th in on-base percentage at .396, and 7th in on-base plus slugging percentage at .897. Freeman is only getting better as well and his pure left handed swing is one of the smoothest in all of baseball. However, the Braves do have some real concerns up and down their order. Everybody is still waiting on Jason Heyward to take the next step but he does have some ridiculous power, and Justin Upton did hit 27 home runs last year but he might have been spending too much time with his brother because he had his lowest batting average since 2008. The chances that Chris Johnson hits .321 again this season is highly unlikely and Evan Gattis can hit the long ball but not much else. Andrelton Simmons could not get a hit for the entire season but it doesn't matter because he is that good defensively, as his 5.4 defensive WAR was tied with Terry Turner for the best in a single-season in MLB history (he did have the 4th lowest k% in the majors to go along with his amazing play at shortstop that tied a defensive mark that has stood since 1906). Finally, we get to the other Upton (not Kate, not Justin) and Dan Uggla. Despite signing with the Braves in their largest contract in franchise history for more than 15 million dollars, B.J Upton had one of the worst seasons anybody has ever seen. He had a dismal batting average of .184, a dreadful slugging percentage of .289, and a horrid strikeout percentage of 33.9 (all of which were the second worst in the the majors with a minimum of 400 plate appearances). The only person who made more money and did less than Upton last year was Donald Trump. Dan Uggla somehow managed to almost be as bad as Upton. His .179 batting average was tied with Rob Deer in 1991 for the worst in a MLB season since 1900 and his 31.8 k% was the 8th worst in NL history.
Philadelphia Phillies Preview:
The Phillies will likely have the 3rd highest opening day payroll in all of baseball at around 180 million dollars, but they will be quite lucky if they finish above .500 for the first time since they won 102 games in 2011. Their entire roster is just full of guys that are old, are getting paid way too much money, and are not close to what they were in the prime of their career (essentially they are a poor man's version of the Brooklyn Nets). Ryan Howard signed a 5-year, 125 million dollar contract extension with Philadelphia in 2010 to go with the 3-year, 54 million dollar deal he signed the previous year and then decided that he no longer needed to do anything in his career but strikeout at the plate (in fairness to him, Howard has missed so much time with injuries over the past two years. Who can forget when he tore his achilles on the last play of the 2011 NLDS against the Cardinals). It is very hard to put any faith in Howard because he has played sparingly since 2011 and when he has been on the field, he has swung and missed more than the NBA with their short sleeve jerseys. His 33.9k% in 2012 was the 2nd worst in the NL for batters with at least 290 plate appearances and his 30.0 k% in 2013 was the 5th worst amongst NL batters with at least 300 plate appearances. Howard has just not looked the same over the past two years and nothing like the guy from 2006 to 2011 who could pull any ball over the right field fence with relative ease (his 58 home runs in 2006 are only behind Roger Maris and Babe Ruth among non-steroid connected players like Bonds, McGwire, and Sosa for a single-season. It is a shame that every stat now has an asterisk next to it because of the use of performance enhancing drugs. As far as I am concerned, the legitimate and true single-season home run king is still Maris). Meanwhile, Chase Utley is as old as Jeff Bridges and Herb Kohl combined and yet the Phillies actually need him to be the Chase Utley of 2009 in order to actually win some ballgames this season. Utley, who is still getting paid 15 million dollars a season despite being 35, has the kness of Greg Oden and Dwayne Wade, which basically means that he is Oscar Pistoruis without the murder chargers. As if the Phillies couldn't get any older, they will also be starting a very steeply declining Jimmy Rollins at shortstop, who has limited range in the infield, 36 year old Marlon Byrd, and a catcher that is 35 with Carlos Ruiz. We may need emergency services ready at any time for these guys.
It is a rare sight to see in Philadelphia, but the Phillies do at least have a few young bright spots to look forward to watching, so that their fans can know that not all players need a cain to get up every time they hit the ground. Domonic Brown is a guy that the Phillies can build around for the next several years. He showed his natural power last season when he tied for the 4th most NL home runs with 27 including when he hit 16 long balls in a 36 game stretch from May 1 to June 8, and when he had the 6th best National League isolated power and the 9th best slugging percentage at a tad under .500. Like many good but still improving young hitters, Brown can crush fastballs in the zone but he sometimes struggles with off-speed pitches and being patient at the plate (his BB% of 7.2 was tied for 93rd in the MLB and was well behind Joey Votto, who led the league with a very high BB% of 18.6. He also swung at 29.8% of pitches that were outside the strike zone according to fangraphs). Brown had a whiff percentage of 16.36 against sliders and 14.22 against curveballs while his whiff percentage against fastballs was just 8.72. Meanwhile, despite the fact that Ben Revere has still not hit a home run in 4 MLB seasons (he is closing in on Duane Kuiper's record for the most plate appearances to start a career without a home run), he is actually a very solid leadoff hitter. He hit .294 with a .333 on-base percentage in 2012 and followed it up with a similar performance last season hitting .305 and having a .338 on-base percentage. With a lineup that has more old guys than the movie Last Vegas, Brown and Revere are at least some signs of youth.
Here is Ruben Amaro's very flawed logic (what else is new): if we essentially keep the same team that won the World Series in 2008 and made it back again in 2009 and don't make any big moves, we will eventually return to the same spot sooner or later. The Angels tried that model after winning the World Series in 2002 and in two of the next four years they didn't even make the playoffs. While it will probably not help them return to the postseason, the Phillies do have three dominate guys at the top of their rotation. Cliff Lee has not thrown a ball since he was in third grade. He has led the league in the strikeouts to base on balls ratio in three different seasons (only Carl Hubbell, Robin Roberts, Fergie Jenkins, and Roy Halladay have done so more times since 1914) and walks per 9 innings in four different years (Cy Young and Christy Mathewson are the only pitchers to do so more times) and his 10.278 K/BB and 0.763 BB/9 in 2010 were both the second best in a single-season since 1934 (only behind Bret Saberhagen's 1994 year in both categories). Lee goes right after hitters with his off-speed pitches and cutter and since batters have a 17.39 whiff percentage against his curveball and a 15.92 whiff percentage against his change-up, they are constantly down in the count and put into a hole with two strikes. While Cole Hamels may begin the season on the DL, he is another top five left handed pitcher that the Phillies have in their rotation (behind guys like Kershaw, Price, Sale, and possibly Lester). Hamels was tied for the 3rd most percentage of change-ups thrown in 2013 at 24.9 percent of his pitches and it is probably the best change-up in all of baseball along with Felix and James Shields. He has finished in the top 7 of strikeouts/base on balls in 7 straight seasons and in the top 8 in pitching WAR in 4 consecutive years. A.J. Burnett (a guy I forgot before but could go along with Hudson and Peavy for the angriest pitchers in the MLB) has been much better since he left the Yankees in 2011 (he can join the club of current pitchers like Tyler Clippard, Ian Kennedy, and Mark Melancon. No pitcher in the majors threw more curvballs than Burnett last season, but his main off-speed pitch that has a hard break and stays down in the zone allowed him to have the second highest groundball percentage on batted balls in the majors.
New York Mets/Miami Marlins Preview:
You will be hard pressed to find two organizations run any worse than the New York Mets and the Miami Marlins (this does not include the Oakland Raiders and the Florida Panthers because they are practically not even pro sports franchises). Somehow, the Marlins have managed to win two World Series since 1993 and not make the playoffs any of the other 19 years. While 2 championships in 21 years in not at all a bad rate (the Roylas would take 2 playoff appearances in 21 seasons), the fact that the Marlins have had two distinct teams capable of being perennial title contenders and yet they have still had 15 losing seasons shows that the front office, more like their owner actually, has just done a real poor job. It is harder to somehow mess everything up when you actually have some good talent than when you continually lose when you have nothing to work with, which is why the Marlins are the most dysfunctional thing since attempts for democracy in Egypt. I've already talked about how the Marlins just destroyed their entire World Series team from 1997 and then went on to have one of the worst seasons after winning a title in pro sports. Jeffrey Loria then ruined the Marlins for several years when he had the biggest change of heart since Benedict Arnold after he spent a ton of money in 2012 and then got rid of all the team's big contracts a year later. Meanwhile, the Mets 7-year postseason drought is only behind the Marlins for the longest in the National League (tied with the San Diego Padres) and since every player that the Mets brings in suddenly forgets how to play baseball (Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, Jason Bay), the streak should continue beyond this year.
In a roster that only the Marlins could pull off, they could have the best two of the best three players in the game that are 24 years or younger (Mike Trout being the other) with Jose Fernandez, a top five right handed pitcher in the game, and Giancarlo Stanton, possibly the best right fielder in baseball, and they will still likely finish with less than 70 wins for the 3rd season in a row. If you ever do happen to watch a full Marlins game, which would be as sad as the end of Toy Story 3, then Fernandez and Stanton would be the sights to see. Fernandez is about as nasty of a pitcher as I have seen over the past two decades. He was in the top five of just about every NL pitching category last season (1st in H/9, 2nd in ERA, 2nd in K/9, 2nd in adjusted pitching wins, 3rd in pitching WAR, 4th in FIP) and he had the best rookie year for a pitcher since Mark Fidrych in 1976, Fernando Valenzuela in 1980, or Dwight Gooden in 1984, and the best rookie year for any player since Ted Williams in 1939, Fred Lynn in 1975, or Ichiro in 2001. After finishing 3rd in the NL Cy Young voting in 2013, Fernandez is only going to get better, which is really quit scary. The Marlins are also fortunate enough to have Giancarlo Stanton patrolling the outfielder and just crushing balls at the plate. There are very few guys in the big leagues who have the pure power of Stanton, as he has the 2nd highest isolated power in the MLB over the last three years and the 2nd most NL home runs since 2011 (behind only Jay Bruce) to go along with the fact that he led the MLB in slugging in 2012. The Marlins do also have some other young players to keep an eye on like Christian Yellich, Marcell Ozuna, Adeiny Hechavarria, and Henderson Alvarez, but they should be watching games in the middle of October once again.
This was the year that Mets fan had circled as the season that they would finally make a jump and win at least 80 games for the first time since 2008, but that estimate seems a little too premature (this should not come as a surprise to anybody that is a rational human being). It is unfortunate that Matt Harvey is going to be out for the entire season due to Tommy John surgery because any time baseball loses a pitcher that became the 3rd guy since 1972 to have a FIP of 2.0 or lower along with Dwight Gooden in 1984 and Pedro in 1999 is just sad for all the fans in the game. They do still have one of the best young pitchers in baseball to watch with Zack Wheeler, who has a pretty good pitching repertoire including a mid 90's fastball and a very nice curveball. Aside from having some real good stuff and being one of the best pitchers under the age of 23 (some real good young pitchers with Jose Fernandez, Julio Teheran, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Gerrit Cole, and Trevor Rosenthal all 23 years or under as well), Wheeler ruined the trade market for years to come, which was why the trade deadline was so boring for everybody last year. After the Giants traded Wheeler for just a half a year of Carlos Beltran (the Mets actually made a good trade, showing that everybody gets lucky: just ask the 1983 NCST Wolfpack or the 2012 Chelsea Blues) every team is looking for a similar trade before making a move because young starting pitchers are just so valuable nowadays. This is why it was so odd to see the Tigers give up Fister for so little because the Mets got Wheeler for not even a full year of Beltran and the Rays got Wil Myers for James Shields. Along with Wheeler, we will also see the debut of the highly anticipated Noah Syndergaard, who was become known around New York for his hard throwing fastball. While a future rotation of Harvey, Wheeler, and Syndergaard does sound pretty nice, in the interim, Mets fans will have to settle for watching Ike Davis, Chris Young, and Curtis Granderson strike out every at-bat.
NL Central Preview:
The St. Louis Cardinals have been the model franchise in the major leagues since they won the World Series in 1982 over the Milwaukee Brewers. Over that time span, the Cardinals have been to the World Series seven different times (aside from the Yankees, no other team has been to the World Series five different times since 1982), have only had 3 losing season in the more than 30 years, and they have been to the postseason 10 of the last 14 seasons since the turn of the century (the Sox have won the most World Series since 2000 - two times beating the Cardinals - but nobody has been as consistent as St. Louis). There is just something about the baseball culture and the way the game is played in St. Louis that has helped them dominate the NL Central, winning 8 of the last 14 division titles and being a Wild Card team three other times, including when they won the World Series in 2011 over the Texas Rangers. The Cards have done things the right way as well through good pitching and fielding behind them and fundamentals at the plate (and not unnecessarily overpaying for Albert Pujols). The Cubs have not won the Fall Classic since they beat the Tigers for the second straight year in 1908 and they haven't even been to the World Series since 1945 when they lost to Detroit in seven games, the Pirates have had one playoff appearance since 1992, the Reds have not won a playoff series since 1995, and the Brewers have won just one postseason series since 1982, so the Cards should be advancing on from the NL Central once again this year.
St. Louis Cardinals Preview:
The Cardinals are the exact opposite of the New York Mets in that everything that the Mets bring in turns into Jason Bay and everything the Cardinals touch turns into gold. Just take the Cards pitching staff for example, which is just full of young, talented arms that other teams fail to ever wind up with in their organization. After losing 2005 NL Cy Young and post-season horse Chris Carpenter in 2012 to retirement and Kyle Lohse the following year to the Brewers, the Cardinals were able to stockpile their rotation with youngsters like Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly, and Lance Lynn (Carlos Martinez is going to be there soon enough as well), all of whom are 26 years or younger and should be at the top of baseball's pitching stratosphere for years to come. Anybody that watched Michael Wacha in the postseason last year, where he went 4-0 with a 1.00 ERA and held hitters to a .122 bating average in his first four playoff starts, can tell you that he is going to be the next big thing in the majors. There are few guys in the sow that throw a power changeup like Wacha, whose main off-speed pitch still comes in around the high 80's and has late breaking life to it. In 2013, batters hit just .211 against Wacha's changeup with no home runs, a 34.1 strikeout percentage, and a 66.7 ground ball percentage. Wacha's fastball-changeup combination is already at the top of the game, so if he can develop his curveball and cutter, he will be that much tougher for hitters to face. Shelby Miller is another very highly rated young pitcher for the Cards. In his first full MLB season, Miller had the 6th most win in the National League with 15 and was in the top 10 of the NL in ERA at 3.06. Miller really only has two pitches, a fastball that he threw more than 70 percent of the time in 2013 and a curveball, which would be a little more concerning if his fastball was not such a good pitch that he could locate around the zone. Not only does Joe Kelly have two first names (he can join the club of Chris Paul, Frank Thomas, and Tony Parker), but in just his 2nd MLB season, his ERA was also the 5th best in the NL last year among pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched. Lance Lynn is the final Cards young gun in the starting rotation and he has been in the top 6 in NL wins over the last two years and in the top 9 in NL strikeouts per 9 innings since 2012. Even the Cardinals bullpen is full of really good young pitchers, highlighted by 100 mph throwing 23-year old Trevor Rosenthal, who had a 1.91 FIP in 74 appearances last year and has not allowed a postseason run in 20.1 innings pitched, and Carlos Martinez, another hard-throwing 22-year old right hander that can also mix in a slider during the count.
Often times, when something new and shiny comes in, we forget about the old, consistent player that has been at the top of his game for such a long time (who hasn't heard the alleged story about Isiah Thomas leading a freeze-out of Michael Jordan during the 1985 NBA All-Star Game at the old Hoosier Dome in Indianapolis when he and some other veteran players were reportedly upset about all the sponsorship deals and fanfare that Jordan was receiving as a rookie in the league. In Jordan's defense, he did average 28.2 points per game in the 1984-1985 season - the most by a rookie since Kareem scored 28.8 per game in 1970 with the Bucks - and was 2nd in PER and win shares, so the attention was very much deserved. However, to think that Thomas could get an entire team of guys like Moses Malone, Larry Bird, Julius Erving, Bernard King, Sidney Moncrief, and other to not pass the ball to Jordan is a little bit of a stretch. Whether it was or was not a freeze-out, Jordan could not have been happy scoring just 7 points in his first ever All-Star Game, and in very Jordan-like fashion, he got his revenge in the Bulls next game when he scored a franchise rookie record 49 points against Isiah's Pistons). It is a little different situation in St. Louis, but with all of the young arms on the Cards staff like Wacha and Miller (they are representative of the young guys in the NBA in 1985 like Jordan, Hakeem, Barkley, Sam Perkins, Clyde, and Ralph Sampson) you really can't forget about the Cards true ace, a guy that has finished in the top 3 of the NL Cy Young three in the last four years he has pitched, Adam Wainwright (representative of the veterans in he NBA in the mid 1980's like Kareem, Magic, Alex English, George Gervin, Adrian Dantley, Bird, Erving, and Moses). Wainwright has a full compliment of pitches with his sinking fastball, cutter (batters have a career .161 batting average against his cutter) and curveball (he threw the third most curveballs in the majors in 2013). Wainwright is very close with Kershaw for the best curveball in the majors, and few guys have the movement on their pitches that the Cards ace possess on his nasty off-speed stuff. Wainwright's curveball has 8.14 inches of horizontal movement on it, the most in the majors, and since 2007, only Barry Zito and Brett Myers - neither of whom are on a team as of now - have had more downward vertical movement on their curveball than Wainwright, who has averaged 9.14 inches of movement on his breaking ball towards the bottom of the zone since that date).
As if things weren't tough enough, teams will also have to face a Cardinals offense that has been in the top 5 of the majors in runs scored for three straight seasons because of their extreme depth from the top of their order to their bench guys. The Cards have lost a lot of big, power hitters over the past several years including Pujols, Lance Berkman, David Freese, Carlos Beltran, and even Colby Rasmus, but they have been able to better their offense production in recent years by not allowing the opposing pitchers to have an easy out in their lineup. Although the Cards do lack the power in their lineup that they had with some of their bigger name hitters (they ranked 27th in the majors in home runs last year), St. Louis still managed to finish 3rd in runs, 4th in hits, 2nd in doubles, 4th in batting average, and 3rd in on-base percentage last season. The Cards have as consistent and deep of a lineup from the leadoff man to the 8th hitter that I have seen in the National League (even better than the 2013 Miami Marlins). Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Heyward could be the only two leadoff hitters in the majors that I would take over Matt Carpenter. Carpenter, who became the first Card to win the Silver Slugger at second base in the award's history and finished 4th in the 2013 NL MVP race, led the major leagues last season in runs scored (the 8th most runs scored in a season by a second basemen since 1939), hits, and doubles (the 3rd most doubles in a season by a second basemen since 1937) and was 3rd in the NL in offensive WAR, 5th in adjusted batting wins, and 6th in the National League in batting average at .318. He did all this at a position that outside of Cano and Pedroia does not typically provide a lot of offense for teams, and as one of a few players that hits without any batting gloves on his hands (him and Wil Myers are the only ones left standing). Matt Holliday, who could be the best left fielder in baseball (it is close with Carlos Gonzalez), is one of the most underrated players in baseball and will be the center piece of the Cards offense for another year (he has averaged 27 home runs, 103 RBI's, a .314 batting average, and a .931 on-base plus slugging percentage in the last 8 years) and has a perfect stroke for hitting the ball into the large gaps at Busch Stadium. Matt Adams, Allen Craig, and performance enhanced Jhonny "What deterrent is there to steroids when I can get a 53 million dollar contract after getting caught with PED's" Peralta will protect Holiday in the lineup, especially Craig, who is one of just seven players to bat .315 or better in two of the last three seasons with a minimum of 200 plate appearances each year (Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, teammate Yadier Molina, Mike Trout, Adrian Beltre, and Joe Mauer being the others). Even Yadier Molina, a guy that was once exclusively seen as the best defensive catcher in the game (he is still known as that since he has won 6 straight Gold Gloves - 10 away from tying the great defensive third basemen Brooks Robinson's record - and has the 2nd highest active defensive WAR behind only Adrian Beltre) has been one of the best hitters for St. Louis, as in the last two years he has been in the top 4 in the NL in batting average both seasons.
Pittsburgh Pirates/Cincinnati Reds Preview:
After missing out on 19 consecutive postseasons from 1993 to 2012 and being as irrelevant as ABC family, the Pirates finally made it to October last year, as the city of Pittsburgh rejoiced for the first time since the Steelers won the Super Bowl in 2008 and the Penguins took home Lord Stanley the following year. The Pirates will now have to face something entirely new to them, which is actually dealing with success, as they are coming off their best season since they had Jim Leyland as their manager and Barry Bonds won the MVP in his final year in Pittsburgh in 1992. They are like the new girl in school who is getting all the attention or the actor that just made his Hollywood debut in a big movie (will the Pirates turn into Mark Hamill or keep up their high level like Robert Duvall). After the New Orleans Saints finally ended which is now the 3rd longet playoff drought in NFL history by making the playoffs in 1987 for the first time in 21 attempts (they had a dismal record of 86-196-5 from 1967 to 1986), the Saints failed to get a postseason win until 2000 (they were the Peter Billingsley, Jaye Davidson, or Brandon Routh of sports until Drew Brees entered the scene and beat the Colts in the Super Bowl in 2009). However, the Redskins and Steelers followed a much different narrative than the Saints after their prolonged playoff droughts. The Redskins had the longest run in NFL history without making the postseason, as Washington didn't reach the playoffs from 1946 to 1970. However, after they snapped their 25-year postseason drought in 1971, the Skins were one of the NFL's most dominate teams before the past two decades, making 5 Super Bowl appearances (1972, 1982, 1983, 1987, 1991) and winning 3 of them (1982, 1987, 1991) in the 1980's and early 1990's. After the Steelers made the playoffs in 1972 for the first time since back in 1947, they have never looked back, making the playoffs in 26 of the last 42 seasons and winning 6 Super Bowls in the process (1974-1975, 1978-1979, 2005, 2008). The Redskins and Steelers have been the Johnny Depp, Anna Paquin, or Barbra Streisand of pro sports, so we will see if the Pirates become the Saints or the Redskins or Steelers?
Andrew McCutchen had the best season for a Pirates player in 2013 since the days of Barry Bonds when he became the first player in baseball history to have more than 30 home runs and 50 stolen bases in a season in 1990, before the steroids kicked in and he got slow and fat (McCutchen's WAR of 7.9 in 2013 has only been topped by Pirate greats Honus Wagner, Barry Bonds, Arky Vaughan, Roberto Clemente, and Ralph Kiner in a single-season for a Pittsburgh player). McCutchen has been in the top 3 in the National League in MVP, offensive WAR and overall WAR, on-base percentage, hits, and adjusted batting runs and wins each of the last two seasons. The Pirates will need him to continue to get on base at a major league high rate this season, especially against left handed pitchers, who he hit a ridiculous .388 against with a 1.130 on-base plus slugging percentage in 2013. McCutchen gets some of the easiest power in baseball, which allows him to hit for contact to all parts of the ballpark knowing that his balls will fly. McCutchen is going to be the constant for the Bucs, so the question with the Pirates lineup will be the pieces around him. Despite the fact that Pedro Alvarez led the NL in strikeouts last season, Pittsburgh could swallow that again if he is at the top of the National League in home runs and home runs per at-bat this season (nothing good comes without sacrifice, hopefully Carmelo will come to understand that, so 180 strikeouts for Alvarez with his home run ability is not something all that bad). The Pirates were 20th in the majors in runs last year and still made the playoffs, so some consistency from Starling Marte, Neil Walker, and Russell Martin should provide enough runs for Pittsburgh with their well above average pitching staff, which had the 3rd lowest ERA in the majors last year. Although their rotation will take a hit after losing A.J. Burnett, a resurgent Francisco Liriano, the solid Wandy Rodriguez and Charlie Morton, a major comeback possibility from Edinson Volquez, and a major leap possibility for Gerrit Cole could help the Pirates allow their fewest runs in a 162 game season since 1984 (granted they did finish last in the division that year). Liriano, who finished 9th in the NL Cy Young, has a really hard cutting slider, which ranked second behind only Yu Darvish according to fangraphs, and batters have just a .169 career batting average against the pitch. Meanwhile, since 1996, Jose Fernandez in 2013 (2.73) and Roy Oswalt in 2001 (2.84) are the only starting pitchers with at least 19 starts to have had a lower FIP in their rookie year than Gerrit Cole. Cole can throw three pitches and his fastball in the high 90's is the reason why he is so highly regarded by scouts.
Ever since the Reds swept the A's in the 1990 World Series behind Barry Larkin, Paul O'Neill, Chris Sabo, Eric Davis and Jose Rijo, they have been the Dallas Cowboys of the MLB, straddling mediocrity like nobody else. They have only had two seasons with more than 91 wins (1999 and 2012), and yet they have only had one season with more than 93 losses (2001) since the days of the Big Red Machine in the 1970's, and their record over the last 23 years is an average 1826-1835. Looking at the Reds very good pitching staff but underwhelming and suspect lineup, Cincinnati could be destined for another season around the .500 mark. I never thought I would live in a world in which Homer Bailey, a pitcher that has never had a season with an ERA or FIP under 3.30, is getting a six-year, 105 million dollar contract. I do, however, understand the rational behind the deal because although Bailey has still not put everything together, he does have good enough stuff to warrant a 17.5 average annual salary. Bailey throws a lot of fastballs and split-fingers, but could rely a little more on his slider and curveball to keep hitters off balance. When Homer stays around the strike zone, he can be really effective, as shown by his no-hitters in 2012 against the Pirates and 2013 against the Giants (Johnny Vander Meer and Jim Maloney are the only other Reds pitchers to have multiple career no-hitters and he is one of just five pitches to have no-hitters in consecutive seasons along with Wareen Spahn, Sandy Koufax, Steve Busby, and Nolan Ryan). Johnny Cueto, who was 4th in the NL Cy Young in 2012 because of his 2.78 ERA and 0.6 HR/9 rate that year, always seems to come up with a big start when the Reds need it most, and he has a really good slider. Mat Latos, whose win-loss percentage has been in the top five of the NL each of the last two years, Mike "Who needs the minor leagues, I am like Bob Feller, Catfish Hunter, and Sandy Koufax" Leake, and the Reds only lefty in the rotation, Tony Cingrani, finish out a rotation that was in the top 6 in the majors in 2013 in ERA, quality starts, strikeouts, and opponents batting average. After losing on-base machine Shin-Shoo Choo to the Rangers and not making any major additions, a Reds lineup that was 19th in slugging percentage and 20th in total bases last year could be in for some more trouble this season. The top of their lineup with the always steady Brandon Phillips (he has hit 18 home runs four straight seasons), the best hitter in baseball since 2010 with Joey Votto, and Jay "I have the most homers in the NL over the last three years" Bruce could be the best 2-3-4 combination
Milwaukee Brewers/Chicago Cubs Preview:
In every ballpark the Milwaukee Brewers play in this season, Ryan Braun will be the subject of very harsh criticism from the fans in attendance, and deservedly so because his actions over the past three years in regards to performance enhancing drugs and the way he has handled the entire situation with steroids has been reprehensible and downright intolerable. There have been few players in sports over the past several decades that have received true venom from fans everywhere they have gone. Obviously, the reaction that LeBron James got after leaving Cleveland for Miami in 2010 will never be seen again, as the year round bash on LeBron tour, especially his return to the city that God hates, had some of the craziest and most hostile atmospheres you will ever see for a basketball game. The only other time I saw crowds more rancorous and unhinged was when Bane blew up the football field in The Dark Knight Rises. Some other very notorious sports villains, like Barry Bonds, Conrad Dobler, Roy Keane, and Bill Laimbeer, would also typically get their fair share of abuse from the fans because of their ability to get under players' skin and sometimes play on the dirtier side of the sport (I'm looking at you Dobler). After getting out of a suspension in 2011 for testosterone because of a clear technicality in the process, Braun only accepted a 65 game PED suspension in 2013 after his team was way out of the playoff picture and as he was battling multiple injuries. To make matters worse, his apology could also not have be any less sincere following his suspension as he said, "I realize now that I have made some mistakes," as if he didn't realize he was ruining the reputation of an innocent man back in 2011 or openly lying to everybody by saying he was not taking steroids for three years. While Andy Pettitte gets too much credit for apologizing and moving on from his PED use (remember that Pettitte did not voluntarily come forward with the steroid information but was caught using the drugs), people respected the fact that he admitted to taking the PED's and was forthright about it, which comes in drastic contrast to all the lying that Braun told people. Braun should be booed in every stadium that he enters for his harrowing behavior, but there is no denying that the guy can hit with the best of them in the big leagues. He can spray the ball around the ballpark and because of his quick hands, he is a very good fastball hitter. Carlos Gomez is a lightning rod and is really good in the center field, which helped him have the 4th best defensive WAR since 1918 and become the second Brewers player along with Robin Yount in 1982 to lead or be tied for the lead in the MLB in WAR. The Brew Crew also have a pitching staff that cold surprise some people in the National League. Yovani Gallardo, Matt Garza, and Kyle Lohse form the top of a rotation that is more than capable of being towards the top 10 of the league in ERA, but it remains to be seen how their bullpen will pitch, as their relievers were in the middle of the league in runs allowed and batting average against last year.
They are still playing baseball in Chicago? The Cubs haven't won a playoff game since the Steve Bartmen incident in game 6 of the NLCS against the Marlins more than 10 years ago (nobody seems to remember that Mark Prior was probably left in the game for too long by Dusty Baker and Alex Gonzalez bobbled a potential inning ending double play), and the misery for Cubs fans, something they have grown all so used to, will likely continue once again this year with their third consecutive season under 70 wins (would be their first time since 1947-1951) and their 5th straight year without being over .500 (would be their first time since 1978-1983). Chicago is in a very tough, grueling position right now, but to go forward, you sometimes have to go backwards, and Theo Epstein has had to clean house and get rid of all the bad contracts and old Cubbies that he inherited from former general manager Jim Hendry. Theo got rid of Alfonso Soriano and saved nearly 7 million dollars over the last two years of his contract in the process, traded Carlos Marmol to the Dodgers and Carlos Zambrano to the Marlins and saved nearly 6 million dollars, traded an elderly Scott Feldman for younger pitchers in Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop, sent Geovany Soto and Ryan Dempster to the Rangers and Paul Maholm to the Braves, got real good prospects Mike Olt, Justin Grimm, and C.J. Edwads in a trade with the Rangers for Matt Garza, and received 2013 All-Star Travis Wood for Sean Marshall in a deal with the Reds where they also saved more than 3 million dollars. The Cubs have completely revamped and changed their lineup and pitching staff over the past two years, but this year will bring another season of a lot of losses and a lot rebuilding. The Cubs have not made the World Series since they lost in 7 games to the Tigers in 1945 (the longest active finals drought aside from the Cubs is held by the Sacramento Kings, who haven't been in the NBA Finals since 1951 when they were the Rochester Royals) and they haven't been MLB Champions since 1908 (the longest active championship drought aside from the Cubs is the Cleveland Indians, who haven't won a World Series since the days of Joe Gordon, Ken Keltner, Lou Boudreau, Bob Lemon, and Bob Feller in 1948), and their World Series drought should last another year.
The Cubs do have a lot of very intriguing, but also sometimes perplexing young players that could materialize into a nice core group a guys a few years down the line. Jed Hoyer loves Anthony Rizzo and for good reason, as he drafted him when he was the assistant general manager in Boston in 2007, traded for him in the Adrian Gonzalez deal with the Red Sox when he was the Padres general manager in 2010, and then got him again in a trade as the GM of the Cubs, this time in 2012 in a deal with the Padres for top prospect Andrew Cashner. Hoyer has taken Rizzo with him to three different organizations in two different trades, showing that some front office guys and players can have a stronger connection than J.R. Smith and unnecessary jump shots. Rizzo was 5th in the National League in extra base hits and doubles last year and was only behind Goldschmidt, Votto, Freeman, Belt, A-Gon, and Allen Craig in NL isolated power for first basemen. Although Rizzo can hit for power with his picturesque left handed swing, he struggles against southpaws because he is such a pull hitter, as he hit just .189 against lefties last season. He can also have some difficulties against the fastball on occasion, but Rizzo will only continue to improve in his 3rd full MLB season. In a league that has very few real good shortstops (Troy Tulowitzki is by far the best at short with Andrelton Simmons glove alone being not far behind), Starlin Castro has the ability to be one of the game's best at the position, but he is as frustrating and puzzling of a player as Nene or Andrei Arshavin. Castro can be a guy who can lead the National League in hits (the 4th Cub since they made their last World Series in 1945 to lead the NL in hits along with Billy Williams in 1970, Derrek Lee in 2005, and Juan Pierre in 2006) and be 6th in batting average like he did in 2011 when he had 207 hits and batted .307. He can also be a player that does not even pay any attention in the infield, be in the top two of the National League in errors committed for four straight years, and have an OPS+ of 71, as he did last season. The Cubs also have some young prospects like Junior Lake and triple-A sensation Javier Baez, who hopefully pays more attention at shortstop than Starlin Castro. The Cubs have not had a team ERA under 3.80 since all the way back in 1992, the year Greg Maddux won his first of four consecutive Cy Young Awards, and they should not be expecting to break the drought this season. Edwin Jackson is the NBA's version of Larry King or Mickey Rooney, as he has been on eight different teams since 2005, and has not had one season with any of them with an ERA under 3.60 (why is he still hot commodity at this point). Jeff Samardzija has a pretty good two-seamer and Travis Wood was the Cubs first All-Star since Ted Lilly in 2009, but the Cubs are the Cubs, and they should expect a lot of losses in 2013 (what else is new).
NL West Preview:
There is a rather large divide between the amount of money that the Dodgers and Giants spend in the NL West and the more conservative approach that the Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Padres take within their organization. The Dodgers have the largest opening day payroll in the big leagues at around 235 million dollars, which means that for the first time since 1998, the Yankees will not be at the top of the majors in total salary for their players. The San Francisco Giants are another team that is not afraid to spend some money, as they are in the top 9 of the MLB in payroll for the 5th consecutive season. However, the San Diego Padres, for example, spend so little money that Zack Greinke, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, and Carl Crawford for the Dodgers will be making more money in 2014 than their entire roster. Meanwhile, the Rockies have only been in the top half of the major leagues in payroll once since 2005. Obviously, as we have learned over the past several years, money does not automatically buy you success or a championship (the Phillies didn't even make the postseason last year with the 3rd highest payroll while the A's, Pirates, and Rays did with three of the five lowest MLB salaries) and you can certainly have a few good years with a core group of players and quality prospects that have come through your franchise to perform. The Padres made the World Series in 1998, the Rockies did so as well in 2007, and the Diamondbacks won the Fall Classic in 2001 while the Dodgers have not been to a World Series since 1988. However, it is much harder to maintain prolonged success when the spending is just not there. The Padres have made the playoffs only 5 times in 45 seasons and the Rockies have only been there 3 times in 21 years whereas the Dodgers have been in the postseason 14 times in the last 41 years alone. The big spending clubs should be at the top of the NL West once again in 2014.
Los Angeles Dodgers/San Francisco Giants Preview:
It is World Series or bust for the big spending Los Angeles Dodgers this season, an organization that has put together a team worth more than 235 million dollars in salary in hopes of winning their first World Series since they had Orel Hershiser and pinch hitting, no-legged Kirk Gibson in 1988. LA is loaded everywhere you look, from their lineup with guys like Carl Crawford, Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, and Andre Either to their pitching staff of Kershaw, Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Dan Haren to their bullpen, highlighted by Brian Wilson and Kenley Jansen. At the plate, especially if Matt Kemp can remain healthy, the Dodgers should improve upon their hitting that was 3rd in the NL in batting average and on-base percentage and 4th in hits last year. It is a little concerning that Adrian Gonzalez seems to have lost some of the power that he once had in San Diego with the Padres, especially the pop he had to take the ball the other way (A-Gon did not hit a single opposite field home run last year, after knocking out 10 to left field in his 36 home run, 119 RBI season in 2008). Despite some of his loss in power, A-Gon is still a very complete hitter because he is going to hit 80 percent of the pitches he sees in the strike zone, regardless if they are fastballs or off-speed stuff, and he is going to drive in a lot of runs, as he has a career batting average of .328 with runners in scoring position. A-Gon has hit above .290 every year since 2010 (he has the 11th best batting average over the last 4 years in the MLB), so the bigger question mark is the enigma that is Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez has all the talent in the world to be one of the game's best shortstops with Troy Tulowitzki (remember when he finished 2nd in the MVP in 2009 when he hit .342 with the Marlins), but it is hard to know if you are going to get the Hanley that is passionate, engaged, and willing to do anything to win on a day-to-day basis. Speaking of people who could never surprise you with their antics, Yasiel Puig is another extraordinarily dynamic, but also sometimes alarming guy for LA. We all saw last year that Puig can do literally anything on a baseball field from running around the bases and causing havoc to throwing guys out from deep right field to just hitting some bombs for home runs, but he can also be rather lazy in the outfield and just make some real careless plays at the plate or on the bases. We will see how Don Mattingly decides to handle the fiery Puig, but one thing Mattingly will not have to worry about is Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, or Haren. In fact, it is not to far fetched to think that Kershaw could one day be in the conversation with Sandy Koufax, Randy Johnson, Warren Spahn, Lefty Grove, and Steve Carlton for the best left handed pitcher of all-time. Greinke is not a bad number two at all to go behind Kershaw, as the 2009 Cy Young Award winner has one of the best sliders in all of baseball (batters have a career .159 batting average against his slider). The Blue Crew certainly have more than enough talent to be remembered as the best LA team since the 1955 Dodger squad that had MVP Roy Campanella, Gil Hodges, Pee Wee Reese, Duke Snider, Carl Furillo, and Don Newcombe or the 1963 Dodger club that featured Frank Howard, Tommy Davis, Don Drysdale, and Cy Young and MVP (the second pitcher to ever do so) Sandy Koufax. However, it is impossible to guarantee anything, even on a team that is as stacked as the 2014 Dodgers, although you can pretty much guarantee that Donald Sterling will not be attending any games at Chavez Ravine any time soon.
The San Francisco Giants have been following a rather odd pattern over the past several years, but as unique of an occurrence as it may be, weird patterns do happen to arise all the time in pro sports. Last year, the Jets became the first team in NFL history to alternate wins and losses through their first 10 games of the season, a pattern they continued until they lost to the Bills and Ravens in consecutive weeks in November thanks to some very poor displays from Geno Smith. From 2009 to 2012, the team that played the Eagles in Philly's home opener went on to win the Super Bowl (In 2009, the Saints beat the Eagles in week 2 and then beat the Colts in the Super Bowl. The Packers beat the Eagles in week 1 in 2010 and went on to beat the Steelers in the Super Bowl. In 2011, the Giants beat the Eagles in week 3 and won the Super Bowl by beating the undefeated Patriots. The Ravens lost to the Eagles in week 2 in 2012, but playing the Eagles in Philly's home opener still helped them beat the 49ers in the Super Bowl). The Giants have been following a similar pattern that is very difficult to explain. In 2009, despite Tim Lincecum becoming the first pitcher since Pedro Martinez in 1999 and 2000 to win back-to-back Cy Young Awards, the Giants missed out on the postseason because their lineup ranked 26th in the MLB in runs scored. The following year, behind a pitching staff that was the best in the big leagues in ERA and batting average against, San Francisco won their first World Series since back in 1954 when they had Johnny Antonelli, Hoyt Wilhelm, Monte Irvin, and Willie Mays. However, in 2011, the Giants regressed once again and missed out on the playoffs entirely, mainly due to their lineup averaging a paltry 3.52 runs per game, the 2nd fewest in the major leagues and their least runs scored in a full season since they went 62-100 in 1985 (that team did not even have somebody hit 20 home runs). This did not stop the Giants from returning the next season and becoming the first team since the 2007 Red Sox to sweep the World Series and the first franchise since the Yankees from 1998 to 2000 to win at least two titles in a three year stretch. Nonetheless, in 2013, the Giants failed to reach the postseason once again, as they had their most losses in a season and their worst divisional finish in the NL West since 2008. Looking at this trend, it means that the Giants are destined to win the World Series this year because of their miss the postseason and then win it all tendency that they have shown since 2009.
If the Giants are going to win the World Series in 2014 and continue their peculiar pattern, they need their rotation to be towards the top of baseball in every pitching category and not with a team ERA outside of the top 20 like they had last year. It feels like Madison Bumgarner has been around the major leagues forever, maybe because he was so good in the Giants World Series run in 2010 when he was just a rookie, but Bumgarner is only 24 years old and is still improving, especially on his curveball and change-up to compliment his already established fastball and slider. Bumgarner was 3rd in the NL in hits per 9 innings, 5th in ERA and WHIP, and 7th in strikeouts, base on balls per 9 innings, and FIP last season, which was largely due to his ability to locate his fastball and strikeout hitters with his nasty slider. Nearly 40 percent of Bumgarner's pitches in 2013 were sliders, which was the 3rd highest rate behind only Ervin Santana and Yu Darvish in baseball, but when you can get 4 inches of downward vertical movement on your slider (the most in the NL), you might as well keep on throwing the pitch. However, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, and Ryan Vogelsong need to have bounce back seasons for the Giants because they aren't going to the Fall Classic with Cain repeating his worst ever year in the MLB, Tim Lincecum having his 3rd straight season with an ERA above 4.35, and Ryan Vogelsong posting a horrendous 5.73 ERA like he did last year. Of the three, Cain is almost a certainty to have a comeback season because his ERA was just 2.71 over his last 12 starts in 2013 and his ability to command his fastball around the zone is just too good for him to have another poor year. Although the Giants did add the biggest bulldog in all of sports, Tim Hudson, to solidify their rotation, Vogelsong and Lincecum are still pretty big question marks. Vogelsong did suffer a pretty bad hand injury that made him miss much of the season in 2013, but it may be asking a lot of him to return to the pitcher in 2012 who set the Giants single-season record for consecutive quality starts ahead of pitchers like Atlee Hammaker, Gaylord Perry, and Juan Marichal. Meanwhile, Lincecum's dip in velocity on his fastball from 92 to 93 mph all the way down to the high 80's has been a huge cause for concern in San Francisco. Lincecum no longer has the same change of speed on his pitches because his fastball is no longer that much harder than his change-up or slider, which not only allows batters to catch up to his fastball, but also makes his change-up that was once downright unhittable, not as effective anymore. The Giants, however, do have a much improved lineup from the past, one that ranked in the top 10 in batting average, hits, triples, and sacrifice hits for situational hitting in 2013. Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro are more than capable table setters for the Giants big bats of Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, and Pablo Sandoval. Posey and Pence are going to be the Giants consistent hitters in the middle of their lineup (Posey is one of only two Giants to ever lead the National League in batting average in a season along with Barry Bonds) while Belt and Sandoval should provide the power, especially Belt, who had the 9th highest NL adjusted OPS+ and the 10th most extra base hits in 2013.
Arizona Diamondbacks Preview/Colorado Rockies/San Diego Padres Preview:
In 2012 and 2013, the Diamondbacks finished the season at exactly .500 with a record of 81-81 and with a lineup that looks to be pretty solid but nothing special and a pitching staff that does have some concerns, especially after the injury to stud Patrick Corbin, Arizona looks destined for another very average year. The addition of power hitting Mark Trumbo into the middle of a Diamondbacks lineup that was 26th in the majors in home runs last year will give them some much needed pop. Trumbo hit 29 home runs in 2011, 32 in 2012, and 34 in 2013 with the Angels to give him 95 home runs over the past three years, the 7th most in the major leagues. Trumbo is really a straight pull hitter (he has just 6 career home runs to the opposite field) and left field in Chase Field is only about 330 feet from home plate, which should allow him to pull the ball over the fence with all of the big cuts that he takes on pitches. Arizona will also need to get some production from the players around Paul Goldschimdt because Goldschmidt is going to drive in a lot of runs and get on base at a very high rate. Aaron Hill is definitely declining as he is entering his 11th year in the league at the age of 32, but he can still be one of the league's most consistent second basemen that isn't named Cano, Pedroia, or Kinsler, especially if he can stay healthy because he was 3rd in the NL in total bases, 5th in hits, and 8th in the in OPS in his last full season in 2012. Martin Prado and Gerardo Parra are both solid hitters that can hit for average while Arizona will need a bounce back year from Miguel Montero to help Arizona improve from 14th in the MLB in runs scored, 15 in on-base plus slugging percentage, and 18th in slugging percentage, which were all down from the previous season. Luckily for the Diamondbacks, if all else goes wrong, they will always be able to hop on the back of Paul Goldschmidt, who led the NL in home runs, runs batted in, total bases, extra base hits, slugging percentage, adjusted and regular on-base plus slugging percentage, and adjusted batting runs and wins in 2013. Without Patrick Corbin, though, Arizona's pitching staff could be in for some trouble because Wade Miley, Trevor Cahill, Brandon McCarthy, and Bronson Arroyo are all solid inning eaters but are far from top end rotation guys. Arizona did make a very smart move in bringing in Addison Reed, who was 5th in the AL in saves last season with the White Sox, and will help a Diamondbacks bullpen that was tied with the Astros for the most blown saves in baseball in 2013.
There are only a few things scarier than a pitcher throwing at Coors Field: Carmelo Anthony staying with the New York Knicks, James Harden playing defense, and the Chicago Bulls on offense. With the thin air of Coors Field and the high elevation at the ballpark, it is a hitters dream to step to the plate at the stadium because the ball just flies through the dry air in Colorado like nowhere else. In 1999, Coors Field was the site of 303 total home runs, the most ever at a stadium in one season in MLB history. The stadium has been in the bottom 3 of the majors in runs allowed every year except for once since 2001, and it has been the ballpark that has allowed the most runs in the majors six times in the last thirteen years. National League teams had an average ERA of 3.74 in 2013, but at Coors Field, their ERA went all the way up to 4.29 in Denver. In fact, two years ago, the Rockies had an ERA of 4.41 on the road, but a ridiculously high ERA of 5.97 at home (the next lowest ERA for a team in 2012 at their home stadium was the Red Sox, but all the way down at a 4.75 ERA). Coming off a season in which they put together the 2nd fewest quality starts in baseball, Colorado will need to see a significant improvement from Jorge De La Rosa, Tyler Chatwood, and Juan Nicasio. De La Rosa, who went 16-6 with a 3.76 FIP, is the most likely to help Colorado improve their pitching because he can mix in his slider and change-up with his mid 90's fastball. Even with the addition of Brett Anderson, a guy that will provide the Rockies with some left handed pitching, they will need to score a lot of runs in order to stay somewhere around the .500 mark, and they do have Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki to help them with that. Cargo and Tulo are the best 3-4 combo in all of baseball (Chris Davis and Adam Jones or Prince Fielder and Adrain Beltre might disagree with that), and could both be the best at their respective positions in the MLB. As long as Gonzalez and Tulowitzki stay healthy, they are both going to hit at least 25 home runs, bat above .300, and have an OPS around .900, which means that they will need some help from the guys around them in the lineup. The chances that Michael Cuddyer leads the NL in batting average and is 4th in slugging percentage like he did in 2013 is highly unlikely, and Justin Morneau looks nothing like the guy that won the AL MVP in 2006. Coors Field could be the site of a lot of hits and home runs and the Rockies 5th straight season under 85 wins.
The San Diego Padres have had three consecutive seasons with more than 85 losses and they have not been to the postseason since 2005 when they still fell to the St. Louis Cardinals in 4 games in the NLDS. With a team that just does not have the talent of most of the other clubs in the big leagues, the only thing people in San Diego will be looking forward to is another year where the Chargers win anywhere from 7 to 9 games and blow endless amount of opportunities in the 4th quarter. The Padres pitching staff has a lot of unknowns and question marks and pitchers that they are desperately hoping will have a bounce back season in 2014. Like almost every other MLB team that has been affected with the epidemic of elbow and shoulder problems going around baseball, the Pads have already been hit by the injury bug. Cory Luebke (what a great name), who had a 2.92 FIP and a 1.067 WHIP in 2011, will need his second Tommy John Surgery in the last three years, and the Padres gamble on signing Josh Johnson to a one-year deal and hoping he would return to his 2010 form when he led the NL in ERA, ERA+, FIP, and HR/9 also looks to have failed because Johnson may need to get his second career Tommy John Surgery. Even their pitchers that will be out there in 2014 are looking for redemption years or are guys with very little starting pitching experience. Ian Kennedy had a 2.88 ERA, the 6th best WHIP in the NL, the 7th highest strikeouts/base on balls ratio, and a National League leading 21 wins in 2011, but since then, he is a very sub-par 22-22 with a 4.43 ERA, a 4.30 FIP, a 1.345 WHIP, and a 9.1 hits per 9 innings. Tyson Ross and Robbie Erlin are both unproven starters and Andrew Cashner, the highly rated prospect the Padres received in the Anthony Rizzo trade, can hit the high 90's with his blazing fastball and has a pretty good slider, but he needs to improve upon his pitch locations in order to take the next step. As if the Padres starting rotation didn't have enough question marks, their lineup will need a lot of guys to have comeback years in 2014 just so that they can contend for their first winning season since they had Adrian Gonzalez, Mat Latos, and a Heath Bell that could actually pitch without grooving fastballs over the plate in 2010. Carlos Quentin has shown that when he is healthy he can hit in the 25 home run range and Chase Headley became the 2nd Padres player along with Dave Winfield in 1979 to lead the NL in RBI's when he did so in 2012. However, a bating order of players like Yonder Alonson, Jedd Gyorko, Chris Denorfia, Will Venable, and Seth Smith is nothing that opposing pitchers are going to fear.
The Phillies and Braves have dominated the NL East since the division was formed in 1969, winning 18 of the 20 division titles over the past two decades, but it is not as impressive since they are competing against the Mets and the Marlins every year. The Mets have been to the playoffs just 7 times in 52 seasons since 1962, and in very Mets-like fashion, they somehow managed to blow a 7 game division lead with 17 games to go in 2007, finishing 5-12 over their final stretch of the season. There is also just something about the Mets that makes you feel like they will always let you down, or they will manage to give away all of their money to some guy running a ponzi scheme (the only owner that fell for a worse mistake was Jerry Jones when he drafted Bobby Carpenter in 2007). Meanwhile, the Marlins organization is symbolized by their transition from the 1997 season, when they won their first ever franchise World Series, to the 1998 year, where they traded Moises Alou to the Astros, Gary Sheffield to the Dodgers, Mike Piazza and Al Leiter to the Mets, and Kevin Brown to the Padres and finished with 108 losses. The division this year, however, is not going to be won by any of the preceding teams that were just mentioned, but rather by my pick to play against the Red Sox in the 2014 World Series, the Washington Nationals.
Washington Nationals Preview:
The Nationals have one of the best pitching rotations on paper that we have seen for several years in the big leagues. While sports are obviously not played on paper, or else Villanova would not have beaten Patrick Ewing and Georgetown in the 1985 NCAA Championship Game, the Nats have enough arms to pitch their way to a division title. Stephen Strasburg has been mildly disappointing over his first four years for a pitcher with his talent and his velocity, but he is more than capable of being a CY Young caliber pitcher. Many pitchers who have had Tommy John surgery on their arm, like Strasburg had in 2010 towards the end of his rookie season, have actually come back just as good, if not better, after getting the operation. John Lackey is the most notable example, as the Sox pitcher missed the 2012 season and then came back with his best year since 2009 to help Boston win the World Series (I have to bring it up as much as I can). Another example is John Smoltz, who after getting Tommy John in 2000, set the mark for the most saves in NL history with 55 in 2002 (he shares the record today with Eric Gagne). However, there are some instances where pitchers have not been able to return to their form before the surgery. While Ben Sheets was nearing the end of his career with the Brewers, the operation seemed to have a negative impact on his pitching abilities (after making two straight All-Star games and finishing with the 5th best NL ERA in 2008, Sheets was 4-9 in the year after getting his surgery). It remains to be seen what end of the spectrum Strasburg will fall on, but even though he hasn't looked as good as he did in the early parts of his rookie year, he can still be one of the best pitchers in baseball. Strasburg's fastball can still hit the mid 90's and it allows him to set up his very good changeup and curveball low in the zone for strikeouts, as he led all major league pitchers with a minimum of 150 innings pitched in 2012 in k/9.
The Nats rotation just starts with Strasburg though, as Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, and Doug Fister give Washington a World Series caliber pitching staff. Zimmermann is the most underrated pitcher in the major leagues, the most underrated pitcher, the most underrated pitcher (if I say it enough times maybe people will start to notice him). In the last three years, only Kershaw, Cliff Lee, and Madison Bumgarner have had a lower ERA than Zimmermann for NL pitchers with at least 90 starts and he was tied for the National League lead in wins last season with Adam Wainwright. Although the Nats are sometimes a little too conservative with his pitch count (brings back memories of Strasburg in 2012), Zimmermann still had 16 starts where he went 7 innings and allowed 2 runs or less in 2013. Gio is another guy that has been just great for the Nats over the past two years. He led the NL in wins, fielding independent pitching, and k/9 in 2012, the third NL pitcher to do so since John Smoltz in 1996 and Jake Peavy in 2007 (both of them won the Cy Young in those respective years). Gio has a curveball with a ton of downward movement, giving him the 4th highest curveball value over the last two years according to fangraphs behind only Kershaw, Wainwright, and Strasburg (ahead of Verlander). The Nationals also became the first team to win a trade with Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski when they picked up Doug Fister this off-season. I know that Detroit got a good young left arm with Robbie Ray, but Fister is just such a consistent pitcher, as his 2.38 ERA in 2011 with the Mariners and Tigers was 4th best in the AL and only Verlander, Sale, Price, Shields, and Felix have had a lower ERA than Fister among AL pitchers with at least 90 pitching appearances over the last three years.
The Nationals run production will be their biggest hurdle in winning their first playoff series since they were still in Montreal in 1981 (the only worst franchise in Canada was the Vancouver Grizzlies). Bryce Harper can hit the ball a country mile (it was reported he hit a 570 foot homer in high school) and at age 21, he is only just getting started. Harper has shown signs over his first two years that he can be a guy to hit 40 home runs with something like a .600 slugging percentage, as he hit at least 20 home runs with better than a .200 isolated power in 2011 and 2012. Bryce is fearless at the plate and he takes some of the biggest cuts on the ball that I have ever seen because of his incredible bat speed. He could be a little more patient and disciplined at the plate (his BB% was under 10 in 2012), but you do have to remember that he is quite mature for somebody that is younger than DeMarcus Cousins. Harper is also one of those guys that is always hustling and taking extra bases or throwing guys out from the outfield in a heads up manner (I feel like I needed to add "in a heads up manner" because Yasiel Puig does the same things on the field except it is almost always in a reckless and risky manner, much like his journey to the United States). As much as Harper may be the closest thing that the major leagues has to a five tool player along with Mike Trout and Carlos Gonzalez, the Nats will need Jayson Werth, Ian Desmond, and Wilson Ramos to continue to hit (they combined for 61 home runs last season), slugger Ryan Zimmerman to stay healthy and drive in 100 runs (he has had a WAR of nearly 4 and a OPS well above .800 each of the last two years), second basemen Anthony Rendon to rise to prominence (he is one of baseball's top prospects), and Adam LaRoche to literally do anything (he hit .237 in 2013 after finishing 2012 with 33 home runs, 100 RBI's, and a 6th place spot in the NL MVP voting). You know baseball contracts are just ridiculous when a guy like Jayson Werth, who is an above average hitter but not much more, is getting paid 18 million dollars a season. At least the Nats can take some solace in the fact that Werth is hitting fairly well and that they did not sign A-Rod to a 275 million dollar deal or that they are not associated with the New York Knicks in any manner (small victories sometimes go a long way).
Atlanta Braves Preview:
Going into this off-season, it looked as if the Braves would have a fairly easy time making the playoffs for the 18th time in the last 24 seasons since 1991, but then players began to fall left and right. For the second time in his career, Kris Medlen needed Tommy John surgery, so the Braves lost a pitcher who was 10-1 in 2012 and had a 3.11 ERA in 2013. Shortly thereafter, Brandon Beachy joined Medlen as pitchers to get their second Tommy John surgery (a club that is unfortunately growing at a very fast rate), costing the Braves another top end starting pitcher for the season and somebody who had a 2.1 WAR in 2012 and has a very solid 3.23 career ERA. These injuries came on top of the fact that the Braves lost the always consistent Tim Hudson to the San Francisco Giants (try to found somebody that seems angrier playing sports than Huddy. Maybe Jake Peavy or Kendrick Perkins). Even with all of your rotation intact, it is very hard to replace a guy that finished 4th in the Cy Young in 2010 and is third in NL wins since 2010 behind only Kershaw (should be a given) and Yovani Gallardo (a little bit surprising), but it becomes nearly impossible to have a solid rotation when you lose your top three starters for the entire season and have B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla on your team. The Braves are now left to rely on Ervin Santana (Phil Jackson as the President of a NBA team is the only thing more frightening than Ervin Santana as a club's top starter). Mike Minor, who will begin the season on the DL, Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, and Gavin Floyd, once he returns from the Tommy John surgery he had last year, will fill out a very questionable Braves starting rotation. After finishing with the league's lowest ERA last year at 3.18, Atlanta could have some trouble this season if their pitching falters and they need Dan Uggla and B.J. Upton to actually do something.
Despite some of their obvious starting pitching problems due to some key injuries, it is undeniable that the Braves have a very good bullpen to help them close out games. Craig Kimbrel does not get enough credit for just how good he is in the 9th inning of games. From a pure aesthetics standpoint, Kimbrel is just beautiful to watch because he can threw gas with his high 90's fastball but he also has one of the best curveballs in all of baseball that has allowed him to have a ridiculous strikeout percentage of better than 38% every year since 2010. Kimbrel has been at the top of the NL in saves for three straight seasons and his 50 saves last year were the 7th most in NL history. Since 2011, Kimbrel has 138 saves and just 15 blown saves, has a 1.48 ERA and a 1.43 FIP, and has finished in the top 10 of the NL Cy Young voting ever year. As a team, the Braves have had a top 3 bullpen ERA every year since 2010 and much should remain the same this season with guys like David Carpenter, Luis Avilan, and Jordan Walden in front of Kimbrel to help Atlanta's rotation.
I've been fearing this all day, but I now have to talk about the Braves very talented but underperforming lineup, which means that everybody is going to have to sit through looking at the heinous numbers of B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla (it is a worse site than Dresden). Atlanta does have Freddie Freeman in the middle of their order to keep some things in order. Aside from possibly Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto, I'm not sure if there is a first basemen I would take ahead of Freddie Freeman (on second thought, possibly Paul Goldschmidt but I would have to think about that one). He finished 5th in NL MVP voting last season, and deservedly so, because Freeman was 2nd in the NL in RBI's with 109, 3rd in batting average at .319, 6th in on-base percentage at .396, and 7th in on-base plus slugging percentage at .897. Freeman is only getting better as well and his pure left handed swing is one of the smoothest in all of baseball. However, the Braves do have some real concerns up and down their order. Everybody is still waiting on Jason Heyward to take the next step but he does have some ridiculous power, and Justin Upton did hit 27 home runs last year but he might have been spending too much time with his brother because he had his lowest batting average since 2008. The chances that Chris Johnson hits .321 again this season is highly unlikely and Evan Gattis can hit the long ball but not much else. Andrelton Simmons could not get a hit for the entire season but it doesn't matter because he is that good defensively, as his 5.4 defensive WAR was tied with Terry Turner for the best in a single-season in MLB history (he did have the 4th lowest k% in the majors to go along with his amazing play at shortstop that tied a defensive mark that has stood since 1906). Finally, we get to the other Upton (not Kate, not Justin) and Dan Uggla. Despite signing with the Braves in their largest contract in franchise history for more than 15 million dollars, B.J Upton had one of the worst seasons anybody has ever seen. He had a dismal batting average of .184, a dreadful slugging percentage of .289, and a horrid strikeout percentage of 33.9 (all of which were the second worst in the the majors with a minimum of 400 plate appearances). The only person who made more money and did less than Upton last year was Donald Trump. Dan Uggla somehow managed to almost be as bad as Upton. His .179 batting average was tied with Rob Deer in 1991 for the worst in a MLB season since 1900 and his 31.8 k% was the 8th worst in NL history.
Philadelphia Phillies Preview:
The Phillies will likely have the 3rd highest opening day payroll in all of baseball at around 180 million dollars, but they will be quite lucky if they finish above .500 for the first time since they won 102 games in 2011. Their entire roster is just full of guys that are old, are getting paid way too much money, and are not close to what they were in the prime of their career (essentially they are a poor man's version of the Brooklyn Nets). Ryan Howard signed a 5-year, 125 million dollar contract extension with Philadelphia in 2010 to go with the 3-year, 54 million dollar deal he signed the previous year and then decided that he no longer needed to do anything in his career but strikeout at the plate (in fairness to him, Howard has missed so much time with injuries over the past two years. Who can forget when he tore his achilles on the last play of the 2011 NLDS against the Cardinals). It is very hard to put any faith in Howard because he has played sparingly since 2011 and when he has been on the field, he has swung and missed more than the NBA with their short sleeve jerseys. His 33.9k% in 2012 was the 2nd worst in the NL for batters with at least 290 plate appearances and his 30.0 k% in 2013 was the 5th worst amongst NL batters with at least 300 plate appearances. Howard has just not looked the same over the past two years and nothing like the guy from 2006 to 2011 who could pull any ball over the right field fence with relative ease (his 58 home runs in 2006 are only behind Roger Maris and Babe Ruth among non-steroid connected players like Bonds, McGwire, and Sosa for a single-season. It is a shame that every stat now has an asterisk next to it because of the use of performance enhancing drugs. As far as I am concerned, the legitimate and true single-season home run king is still Maris). Meanwhile, Chase Utley is as old as Jeff Bridges and Herb Kohl combined and yet the Phillies actually need him to be the Chase Utley of 2009 in order to actually win some ballgames this season. Utley, who is still getting paid 15 million dollars a season despite being 35, has the kness of Greg Oden and Dwayne Wade, which basically means that he is Oscar Pistoruis without the murder chargers. As if the Phillies couldn't get any older, they will also be starting a very steeply declining Jimmy Rollins at shortstop, who has limited range in the infield, 36 year old Marlon Byrd, and a catcher that is 35 with Carlos Ruiz. We may need emergency services ready at any time for these guys.
It is a rare sight to see in Philadelphia, but the Phillies do at least have a few young bright spots to look forward to watching, so that their fans can know that not all players need a cain to get up every time they hit the ground. Domonic Brown is a guy that the Phillies can build around for the next several years. He showed his natural power last season when he tied for the 4th most NL home runs with 27 including when he hit 16 long balls in a 36 game stretch from May 1 to June 8, and when he had the 6th best National League isolated power and the 9th best slugging percentage at a tad under .500. Like many good but still improving young hitters, Brown can crush fastballs in the zone but he sometimes struggles with off-speed pitches and being patient at the plate (his BB% of 7.2 was tied for 93rd in the MLB and was well behind Joey Votto, who led the league with a very high BB% of 18.6. He also swung at 29.8% of pitches that were outside the strike zone according to fangraphs). Brown had a whiff percentage of 16.36 against sliders and 14.22 against curveballs while his whiff percentage against fastballs was just 8.72. Meanwhile, despite the fact that Ben Revere has still not hit a home run in 4 MLB seasons (he is closing in on Duane Kuiper's record for the most plate appearances to start a career without a home run), he is actually a very solid leadoff hitter. He hit .294 with a .333 on-base percentage in 2012 and followed it up with a similar performance last season hitting .305 and having a .338 on-base percentage. With a lineup that has more old guys than the movie Last Vegas, Brown and Revere are at least some signs of youth.
Here is Ruben Amaro's very flawed logic (what else is new): if we essentially keep the same team that won the World Series in 2008 and made it back again in 2009 and don't make any big moves, we will eventually return to the same spot sooner or later. The Angels tried that model after winning the World Series in 2002 and in two of the next four years they didn't even make the playoffs. While it will probably not help them return to the postseason, the Phillies do have three dominate guys at the top of their rotation. Cliff Lee has not thrown a ball since he was in third grade. He has led the league in the strikeouts to base on balls ratio in three different seasons (only Carl Hubbell, Robin Roberts, Fergie Jenkins, and Roy Halladay have done so more times since 1914) and walks per 9 innings in four different years (Cy Young and Christy Mathewson are the only pitchers to do so more times) and his 10.278 K/BB and 0.763 BB/9 in 2010 were both the second best in a single-season since 1934 (only behind Bret Saberhagen's 1994 year in both categories). Lee goes right after hitters with his off-speed pitches and cutter and since batters have a 17.39 whiff percentage against his curveball and a 15.92 whiff percentage against his change-up, they are constantly down in the count and put into a hole with two strikes. While Cole Hamels may begin the season on the DL, he is another top five left handed pitcher that the Phillies have in their rotation (behind guys like Kershaw, Price, Sale, and possibly Lester). Hamels was tied for the 3rd most percentage of change-ups thrown in 2013 at 24.9 percent of his pitches and it is probably the best change-up in all of baseball along with Felix and James Shields. He has finished in the top 7 of strikeouts/base on balls in 7 straight seasons and in the top 8 in pitching WAR in 4 consecutive years. A.J. Burnett (a guy I forgot before but could go along with Hudson and Peavy for the angriest pitchers in the MLB) has been much better since he left the Yankees in 2011 (he can join the club of current pitchers like Tyler Clippard, Ian Kennedy, and Mark Melancon. No pitcher in the majors threw more curvballs than Burnett last season, but his main off-speed pitch that has a hard break and stays down in the zone allowed him to have the second highest groundball percentage on batted balls in the majors.
New York Mets/Miami Marlins Preview:
You will be hard pressed to find two organizations run any worse than the New York Mets and the Miami Marlins (this does not include the Oakland Raiders and the Florida Panthers because they are practically not even pro sports franchises). Somehow, the Marlins have managed to win two World Series since 1993 and not make the playoffs any of the other 19 years. While 2 championships in 21 years in not at all a bad rate (the Roylas would take 2 playoff appearances in 21 seasons), the fact that the Marlins have had two distinct teams capable of being perennial title contenders and yet they have still had 15 losing seasons shows that the front office, more like their owner actually, has just done a real poor job. It is harder to somehow mess everything up when you actually have some good talent than when you continually lose when you have nothing to work with, which is why the Marlins are the most dysfunctional thing since attempts for democracy in Egypt. I've already talked about how the Marlins just destroyed their entire World Series team from 1997 and then went on to have one of the worst seasons after winning a title in pro sports. Jeffrey Loria then ruined the Marlins for several years when he had the biggest change of heart since Benedict Arnold after he spent a ton of money in 2012 and then got rid of all the team's big contracts a year later. Meanwhile, the Mets 7-year postseason drought is only behind the Marlins for the longest in the National League (tied with the San Diego Padres) and since every player that the Mets brings in suddenly forgets how to play baseball (Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, Jason Bay), the streak should continue beyond this year.
In a roster that only the Marlins could pull off, they could have the best two of the best three players in the game that are 24 years or younger (Mike Trout being the other) with Jose Fernandez, a top five right handed pitcher in the game, and Giancarlo Stanton, possibly the best right fielder in baseball, and they will still likely finish with less than 70 wins for the 3rd season in a row. If you ever do happen to watch a full Marlins game, which would be as sad as the end of Toy Story 3, then Fernandez and Stanton would be the sights to see. Fernandez is about as nasty of a pitcher as I have seen over the past two decades. He was in the top five of just about every NL pitching category last season (1st in H/9, 2nd in ERA, 2nd in K/9, 2nd in adjusted pitching wins, 3rd in pitching WAR, 4th in FIP) and he had the best rookie year for a pitcher since Mark Fidrych in 1976, Fernando Valenzuela in 1980, or Dwight Gooden in 1984, and the best rookie year for any player since Ted Williams in 1939, Fred Lynn in 1975, or Ichiro in 2001. After finishing 3rd in the NL Cy Young voting in 2013, Fernandez is only going to get better, which is really quit scary. The Marlins are also fortunate enough to have Giancarlo Stanton patrolling the outfielder and just crushing balls at the plate. There are very few guys in the big leagues who have the pure power of Stanton, as he has the 2nd highest isolated power in the MLB over the last three years and the 2nd most NL home runs since 2011 (behind only Jay Bruce) to go along with the fact that he led the MLB in slugging in 2012. The Marlins do also have some other young players to keep an eye on like Christian Yellich, Marcell Ozuna, Adeiny Hechavarria, and Henderson Alvarez, but they should be watching games in the middle of October once again.
This was the year that Mets fan had circled as the season that they would finally make a jump and win at least 80 games for the first time since 2008, but that estimate seems a little too premature (this should not come as a surprise to anybody that is a rational human being). It is unfortunate that Matt Harvey is going to be out for the entire season due to Tommy John surgery because any time baseball loses a pitcher that became the 3rd guy since 1972 to have a FIP of 2.0 or lower along with Dwight Gooden in 1984 and Pedro in 1999 is just sad for all the fans in the game. They do still have one of the best young pitchers in baseball to watch with Zack Wheeler, who has a pretty good pitching repertoire including a mid 90's fastball and a very nice curveball. Aside from having some real good stuff and being one of the best pitchers under the age of 23 (some real good young pitchers with Jose Fernandez, Julio Teheran, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Gerrit Cole, and Trevor Rosenthal all 23 years or under as well), Wheeler ruined the trade market for years to come, which was why the trade deadline was so boring for everybody last year. After the Giants traded Wheeler for just a half a year of Carlos Beltran (the Mets actually made a good trade, showing that everybody gets lucky: just ask the 1983 NCST Wolfpack or the 2012 Chelsea Blues) every team is looking for a similar trade before making a move because young starting pitchers are just so valuable nowadays. This is why it was so odd to see the Tigers give up Fister for so little because the Mets got Wheeler for not even a full year of Beltran and the Rays got Wil Myers for James Shields. Along with Wheeler, we will also see the debut of the highly anticipated Noah Syndergaard, who was become known around New York for his hard throwing fastball. While a future rotation of Harvey, Wheeler, and Syndergaard does sound pretty nice, in the interim, Mets fans will have to settle for watching Ike Davis, Chris Young, and Curtis Granderson strike out every at-bat.
NL Central Preview:
The St. Louis Cardinals have been the model franchise in the major leagues since they won the World Series in 1982 over the Milwaukee Brewers. Over that time span, the Cardinals have been to the World Series seven different times (aside from the Yankees, no other team has been to the World Series five different times since 1982), have only had 3 losing season in the more than 30 years, and they have been to the postseason 10 of the last 14 seasons since the turn of the century (the Sox have won the most World Series since 2000 - two times beating the Cardinals - but nobody has been as consistent as St. Louis). There is just something about the baseball culture and the way the game is played in St. Louis that has helped them dominate the NL Central, winning 8 of the last 14 division titles and being a Wild Card team three other times, including when they won the World Series in 2011 over the Texas Rangers. The Cards have done things the right way as well through good pitching and fielding behind them and fundamentals at the plate (and not unnecessarily overpaying for Albert Pujols). The Cubs have not won the Fall Classic since they beat the Tigers for the second straight year in 1908 and they haven't even been to the World Series since 1945 when they lost to Detroit in seven games, the Pirates have had one playoff appearance since 1992, the Reds have not won a playoff series since 1995, and the Brewers have won just one postseason series since 1982, so the Cards should be advancing on from the NL Central once again this year.
St. Louis Cardinals Preview:
The Cardinals are the exact opposite of the New York Mets in that everything that the Mets bring in turns into Jason Bay and everything the Cardinals touch turns into gold. Just take the Cards pitching staff for example, which is just full of young, talented arms that other teams fail to ever wind up with in their organization. After losing 2005 NL Cy Young and post-season horse Chris Carpenter in 2012 to retirement and Kyle Lohse the following year to the Brewers, the Cardinals were able to stockpile their rotation with youngsters like Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly, and Lance Lynn (Carlos Martinez is going to be there soon enough as well), all of whom are 26 years or younger and should be at the top of baseball's pitching stratosphere for years to come. Anybody that watched Michael Wacha in the postseason last year, where he went 4-0 with a 1.00 ERA and held hitters to a .122 bating average in his first four playoff starts, can tell you that he is going to be the next big thing in the majors. There are few guys in the sow that throw a power changeup like Wacha, whose main off-speed pitch still comes in around the high 80's and has late breaking life to it. In 2013, batters hit just .211 against Wacha's changeup with no home runs, a 34.1 strikeout percentage, and a 66.7 ground ball percentage. Wacha's fastball-changeup combination is already at the top of the game, so if he can develop his curveball and cutter, he will be that much tougher for hitters to face. Shelby Miller is another very highly rated young pitcher for the Cards. In his first full MLB season, Miller had the 6th most win in the National League with 15 and was in the top 10 of the NL in ERA at 3.06. Miller really only has two pitches, a fastball that he threw more than 70 percent of the time in 2013 and a curveball, which would be a little more concerning if his fastball was not such a good pitch that he could locate around the zone. Not only does Joe Kelly have two first names (he can join the club of Chris Paul, Frank Thomas, and Tony Parker), but in just his 2nd MLB season, his ERA was also the 5th best in the NL last year among pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched. Lance Lynn is the final Cards young gun in the starting rotation and he has been in the top 6 in NL wins over the last two years and in the top 9 in NL strikeouts per 9 innings since 2012. Even the Cardinals bullpen is full of really good young pitchers, highlighted by 100 mph throwing 23-year old Trevor Rosenthal, who had a 1.91 FIP in 74 appearances last year and has not allowed a postseason run in 20.1 innings pitched, and Carlos Martinez, another hard-throwing 22-year old right hander that can also mix in a slider during the count.
Often times, when something new and shiny comes in, we forget about the old, consistent player that has been at the top of his game for such a long time (who hasn't heard the alleged story about Isiah Thomas leading a freeze-out of Michael Jordan during the 1985 NBA All-Star Game at the old Hoosier Dome in Indianapolis when he and some other veteran players were reportedly upset about all the sponsorship deals and fanfare that Jordan was receiving as a rookie in the league. In Jordan's defense, he did average 28.2 points per game in the 1984-1985 season - the most by a rookie since Kareem scored 28.8 per game in 1970 with the Bucks - and was 2nd in PER and win shares, so the attention was very much deserved. However, to think that Thomas could get an entire team of guys like Moses Malone, Larry Bird, Julius Erving, Bernard King, Sidney Moncrief, and other to not pass the ball to Jordan is a little bit of a stretch. Whether it was or was not a freeze-out, Jordan could not have been happy scoring just 7 points in his first ever All-Star Game, and in very Jordan-like fashion, he got his revenge in the Bulls next game when he scored a franchise rookie record 49 points against Isiah's Pistons). It is a little different situation in St. Louis, but with all of the young arms on the Cards staff like Wacha and Miller (they are representative of the young guys in the NBA in 1985 like Jordan, Hakeem, Barkley, Sam Perkins, Clyde, and Ralph Sampson) you really can't forget about the Cards true ace, a guy that has finished in the top 3 of the NL Cy Young three in the last four years he has pitched, Adam Wainwright (representative of the veterans in he NBA in the mid 1980's like Kareem, Magic, Alex English, George Gervin, Adrian Dantley, Bird, Erving, and Moses). Wainwright has a full compliment of pitches with his sinking fastball, cutter (batters have a career .161 batting average against his cutter) and curveball (he threw the third most curveballs in the majors in 2013). Wainwright is very close with Kershaw for the best curveball in the majors, and few guys have the movement on their pitches that the Cards ace possess on his nasty off-speed stuff. Wainwright's curveball has 8.14 inches of horizontal movement on it, the most in the majors, and since 2007, only Barry Zito and Brett Myers - neither of whom are on a team as of now - have had more downward vertical movement on their curveball than Wainwright, who has averaged 9.14 inches of movement on his breaking ball towards the bottom of the zone since that date).
As if things weren't tough enough, teams will also have to face a Cardinals offense that has been in the top 5 of the majors in runs scored for three straight seasons because of their extreme depth from the top of their order to their bench guys. The Cards have lost a lot of big, power hitters over the past several years including Pujols, Lance Berkman, David Freese, Carlos Beltran, and even Colby Rasmus, but they have been able to better their offense production in recent years by not allowing the opposing pitchers to have an easy out in their lineup. Although the Cards do lack the power in their lineup that they had with some of their bigger name hitters (they ranked 27th in the majors in home runs last year), St. Louis still managed to finish 3rd in runs, 4th in hits, 2nd in doubles, 4th in batting average, and 3rd in on-base percentage last season. The Cards have as consistent and deep of a lineup from the leadoff man to the 8th hitter that I have seen in the National League (even better than the 2013 Miami Marlins). Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Heyward could be the only two leadoff hitters in the majors that I would take over Matt Carpenter. Carpenter, who became the first Card to win the Silver Slugger at second base in the award's history and finished 4th in the 2013 NL MVP race, led the major leagues last season in runs scored (the 8th most runs scored in a season by a second basemen since 1939), hits, and doubles (the 3rd most doubles in a season by a second basemen since 1937) and was 3rd in the NL in offensive WAR, 5th in adjusted batting wins, and 6th in the National League in batting average at .318. He did all this at a position that outside of Cano and Pedroia does not typically provide a lot of offense for teams, and as one of a few players that hits without any batting gloves on his hands (him and Wil Myers are the only ones left standing). Matt Holliday, who could be the best left fielder in baseball (it is close with Carlos Gonzalez), is one of the most underrated players in baseball and will be the center piece of the Cards offense for another year (he has averaged 27 home runs, 103 RBI's, a .314 batting average, and a .931 on-base plus slugging percentage in the last 8 years) and has a perfect stroke for hitting the ball into the large gaps at Busch Stadium. Matt Adams, Allen Craig, and performance enhanced Jhonny "What deterrent is there to steroids when I can get a 53 million dollar contract after getting caught with PED's" Peralta will protect Holiday in the lineup, especially Craig, who is one of just seven players to bat .315 or better in two of the last three seasons with a minimum of 200 plate appearances each year (Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, teammate Yadier Molina, Mike Trout, Adrian Beltre, and Joe Mauer being the others). Even Yadier Molina, a guy that was once exclusively seen as the best defensive catcher in the game (he is still known as that since he has won 6 straight Gold Gloves - 10 away from tying the great defensive third basemen Brooks Robinson's record - and has the 2nd highest active defensive WAR behind only Adrian Beltre) has been one of the best hitters for St. Louis, as in the last two years he has been in the top 4 in the NL in batting average both seasons.
Pittsburgh Pirates/Cincinnati Reds Preview:
After missing out on 19 consecutive postseasons from 1993 to 2012 and being as irrelevant as ABC family, the Pirates finally made it to October last year, as the city of Pittsburgh rejoiced for the first time since the Steelers won the Super Bowl in 2008 and the Penguins took home Lord Stanley the following year. The Pirates will now have to face something entirely new to them, which is actually dealing with success, as they are coming off their best season since they had Jim Leyland as their manager and Barry Bonds won the MVP in his final year in Pittsburgh in 1992. They are like the new girl in school who is getting all the attention or the actor that just made his Hollywood debut in a big movie (will the Pirates turn into Mark Hamill or keep up their high level like Robert Duvall). After the New Orleans Saints finally ended which is now the 3rd longet playoff drought in NFL history by making the playoffs in 1987 for the first time in 21 attempts (they had a dismal record of 86-196-5 from 1967 to 1986), the Saints failed to get a postseason win until 2000 (they were the Peter Billingsley, Jaye Davidson, or Brandon Routh of sports until Drew Brees entered the scene and beat the Colts in the Super Bowl in 2009). However, the Redskins and Steelers followed a much different narrative than the Saints after their prolonged playoff droughts. The Redskins had the longest run in NFL history without making the postseason, as Washington didn't reach the playoffs from 1946 to 1970. However, after they snapped their 25-year postseason drought in 1971, the Skins were one of the NFL's most dominate teams before the past two decades, making 5 Super Bowl appearances (1972, 1982, 1983, 1987, 1991) and winning 3 of them (1982, 1987, 1991) in the 1980's and early 1990's. After the Steelers made the playoffs in 1972 for the first time since back in 1947, they have never looked back, making the playoffs in 26 of the last 42 seasons and winning 6 Super Bowls in the process (1974-1975, 1978-1979, 2005, 2008). The Redskins and Steelers have been the Johnny Depp, Anna Paquin, or Barbra Streisand of pro sports, so we will see if the Pirates become the Saints or the Redskins or Steelers?
Andrew McCutchen had the best season for a Pirates player in 2013 since the days of Barry Bonds when he became the first player in baseball history to have more than 30 home runs and 50 stolen bases in a season in 1990, before the steroids kicked in and he got slow and fat (McCutchen's WAR of 7.9 in 2013 has only been topped by Pirate greats Honus Wagner, Barry Bonds, Arky Vaughan, Roberto Clemente, and Ralph Kiner in a single-season for a Pittsburgh player). McCutchen has been in the top 3 in the National League in MVP, offensive WAR and overall WAR, on-base percentage, hits, and adjusted batting runs and wins each of the last two seasons. The Pirates will need him to continue to get on base at a major league high rate this season, especially against left handed pitchers, who he hit a ridiculous .388 against with a 1.130 on-base plus slugging percentage in 2013. McCutchen gets some of the easiest power in baseball, which allows him to hit for contact to all parts of the ballpark knowing that his balls will fly. McCutchen is going to be the constant for the Bucs, so the question with the Pirates lineup will be the pieces around him. Despite the fact that Pedro Alvarez led the NL in strikeouts last season, Pittsburgh could swallow that again if he is at the top of the National League in home runs and home runs per at-bat this season (nothing good comes without sacrifice, hopefully Carmelo will come to understand that, so 180 strikeouts for Alvarez with his home run ability is not something all that bad). The Pirates were 20th in the majors in runs last year and still made the playoffs, so some consistency from Starling Marte, Neil Walker, and Russell Martin should provide enough runs for Pittsburgh with their well above average pitching staff, which had the 3rd lowest ERA in the majors last year. Although their rotation will take a hit after losing A.J. Burnett, a resurgent Francisco Liriano, the solid Wandy Rodriguez and Charlie Morton, a major comeback possibility from Edinson Volquez, and a major leap possibility for Gerrit Cole could help the Pirates allow their fewest runs in a 162 game season since 1984 (granted they did finish last in the division that year). Liriano, who finished 9th in the NL Cy Young, has a really hard cutting slider, which ranked second behind only Yu Darvish according to fangraphs, and batters have just a .169 career batting average against the pitch. Meanwhile, since 1996, Jose Fernandez in 2013 (2.73) and Roy Oswalt in 2001 (2.84) are the only starting pitchers with at least 19 starts to have had a lower FIP in their rookie year than Gerrit Cole. Cole can throw three pitches and his fastball in the high 90's is the reason why he is so highly regarded by scouts.
Ever since the Reds swept the A's in the 1990 World Series behind Barry Larkin, Paul O'Neill, Chris Sabo, Eric Davis and Jose Rijo, they have been the Dallas Cowboys of the MLB, straddling mediocrity like nobody else. They have only had two seasons with more than 91 wins (1999 and 2012), and yet they have only had one season with more than 93 losses (2001) since the days of the Big Red Machine in the 1970's, and their record over the last 23 years is an average 1826-1835. Looking at the Reds very good pitching staff but underwhelming and suspect lineup, Cincinnati could be destined for another season around the .500 mark. I never thought I would live in a world in which Homer Bailey, a pitcher that has never had a season with an ERA or FIP under 3.30, is getting a six-year, 105 million dollar contract. I do, however, understand the rational behind the deal because although Bailey has still not put everything together, he does have good enough stuff to warrant a 17.5 average annual salary. Bailey throws a lot of fastballs and split-fingers, but could rely a little more on his slider and curveball to keep hitters off balance. When Homer stays around the strike zone, he can be really effective, as shown by his no-hitters in 2012 against the Pirates and 2013 against the Giants (Johnny Vander Meer and Jim Maloney are the only other Reds pitchers to have multiple career no-hitters and he is one of just five pitches to have no-hitters in consecutive seasons along with Wareen Spahn, Sandy Koufax, Steve Busby, and Nolan Ryan). Johnny Cueto, who was 4th in the NL Cy Young in 2012 because of his 2.78 ERA and 0.6 HR/9 rate that year, always seems to come up with a big start when the Reds need it most, and he has a really good slider. Mat Latos, whose win-loss percentage has been in the top five of the NL each of the last two years, Mike "Who needs the minor leagues, I am like Bob Feller, Catfish Hunter, and Sandy Koufax" Leake, and the Reds only lefty in the rotation, Tony Cingrani, finish out a rotation that was in the top 6 in the majors in 2013 in ERA, quality starts, strikeouts, and opponents batting average. After losing on-base machine Shin-Shoo Choo to the Rangers and not making any major additions, a Reds lineup that was 19th in slugging percentage and 20th in total bases last year could be in for some more trouble this season. The top of their lineup with the always steady Brandon Phillips (he has hit 18 home runs four straight seasons), the best hitter in baseball since 2010 with Joey Votto, and Jay "I have the most homers in the NL over the last three years" Bruce could be the best 2-3-4 combination
Milwaukee Brewers/Chicago Cubs Preview:
In every ballpark the Milwaukee Brewers play in this season, Ryan Braun will be the subject of very harsh criticism from the fans in attendance, and deservedly so because his actions over the past three years in regards to performance enhancing drugs and the way he has handled the entire situation with steroids has been reprehensible and downright intolerable. There have been few players in sports over the past several decades that have received true venom from fans everywhere they have gone. Obviously, the reaction that LeBron James got after leaving Cleveland for Miami in 2010 will never be seen again, as the year round bash on LeBron tour, especially his return to the city that God hates, had some of the craziest and most hostile atmospheres you will ever see for a basketball game. The only other time I saw crowds more rancorous and unhinged was when Bane blew up the football field in The Dark Knight Rises. Some other very notorious sports villains, like Barry Bonds, Conrad Dobler, Roy Keane, and Bill Laimbeer, would also typically get their fair share of abuse from the fans because of their ability to get under players' skin and sometimes play on the dirtier side of the sport (I'm looking at you Dobler). After getting out of a suspension in 2011 for testosterone because of a clear technicality in the process, Braun only accepted a 65 game PED suspension in 2013 after his team was way out of the playoff picture and as he was battling multiple injuries. To make matters worse, his apology could also not have be any less sincere following his suspension as he said, "I realize now that I have made some mistakes," as if he didn't realize he was ruining the reputation of an innocent man back in 2011 or openly lying to everybody by saying he was not taking steroids for three years. While Andy Pettitte gets too much credit for apologizing and moving on from his PED use (remember that Pettitte did not voluntarily come forward with the steroid information but was caught using the drugs), people respected the fact that he admitted to taking the PED's and was forthright about it, which comes in drastic contrast to all the lying that Braun told people. Braun should be booed in every stadium that he enters for his harrowing behavior, but there is no denying that the guy can hit with the best of them in the big leagues. He can spray the ball around the ballpark and because of his quick hands, he is a very good fastball hitter. Carlos Gomez is a lightning rod and is really good in the center field, which helped him have the 4th best defensive WAR since 1918 and become the second Brewers player along with Robin Yount in 1982 to lead or be tied for the lead in the MLB in WAR. The Brew Crew also have a pitching staff that cold surprise some people in the National League. Yovani Gallardo, Matt Garza, and Kyle Lohse form the top of a rotation that is more than capable of being towards the top 10 of the league in ERA, but it remains to be seen how their bullpen will pitch, as their relievers were in the middle of the league in runs allowed and batting average against last year.
They are still playing baseball in Chicago? The Cubs haven't won a playoff game since the Steve Bartmen incident in game 6 of the NLCS against the Marlins more than 10 years ago (nobody seems to remember that Mark Prior was probably left in the game for too long by Dusty Baker and Alex Gonzalez bobbled a potential inning ending double play), and the misery for Cubs fans, something they have grown all so used to, will likely continue once again this year with their third consecutive season under 70 wins (would be their first time since 1947-1951) and their 5th straight year without being over .500 (would be their first time since 1978-1983). Chicago is in a very tough, grueling position right now, but to go forward, you sometimes have to go backwards, and Theo Epstein has had to clean house and get rid of all the bad contracts and old Cubbies that he inherited from former general manager Jim Hendry. Theo got rid of Alfonso Soriano and saved nearly 7 million dollars over the last two years of his contract in the process, traded Carlos Marmol to the Dodgers and Carlos Zambrano to the Marlins and saved nearly 6 million dollars, traded an elderly Scott Feldman for younger pitchers in Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop, sent Geovany Soto and Ryan Dempster to the Rangers and Paul Maholm to the Braves, got real good prospects Mike Olt, Justin Grimm, and C.J. Edwads in a trade with the Rangers for Matt Garza, and received 2013 All-Star Travis Wood for Sean Marshall in a deal with the Reds where they also saved more than 3 million dollars. The Cubs have completely revamped and changed their lineup and pitching staff over the past two years, but this year will bring another season of a lot of losses and a lot rebuilding. The Cubs have not made the World Series since they lost in 7 games to the Tigers in 1945 (the longest active finals drought aside from the Cubs is held by the Sacramento Kings, who haven't been in the NBA Finals since 1951 when they were the Rochester Royals) and they haven't been MLB Champions since 1908 (the longest active championship drought aside from the Cubs is the Cleveland Indians, who haven't won a World Series since the days of Joe Gordon, Ken Keltner, Lou Boudreau, Bob Lemon, and Bob Feller in 1948), and their World Series drought should last another year.
The Cubs do have a lot of very intriguing, but also sometimes perplexing young players that could materialize into a nice core group a guys a few years down the line. Jed Hoyer loves Anthony Rizzo and for good reason, as he drafted him when he was the assistant general manager in Boston in 2007, traded for him in the Adrian Gonzalez deal with the Red Sox when he was the Padres general manager in 2010, and then got him again in a trade as the GM of the Cubs, this time in 2012 in a deal with the Padres for top prospect Andrew Cashner. Hoyer has taken Rizzo with him to three different organizations in two different trades, showing that some front office guys and players can have a stronger connection than J.R. Smith and unnecessary jump shots. Rizzo was 5th in the National League in extra base hits and doubles last year and was only behind Goldschmidt, Votto, Freeman, Belt, A-Gon, and Allen Craig in NL isolated power for first basemen. Although Rizzo can hit for power with his picturesque left handed swing, he struggles against southpaws because he is such a pull hitter, as he hit just .189 against lefties last season. He can also have some difficulties against the fastball on occasion, but Rizzo will only continue to improve in his 3rd full MLB season. In a league that has very few real good shortstops (Troy Tulowitzki is by far the best at short with Andrelton Simmons glove alone being not far behind), Starlin Castro has the ability to be one of the game's best at the position, but he is as frustrating and puzzling of a player as Nene or Andrei Arshavin. Castro can be a guy who can lead the National League in hits (the 4th Cub since they made their last World Series in 1945 to lead the NL in hits along with Billy Williams in 1970, Derrek Lee in 2005, and Juan Pierre in 2006) and be 6th in batting average like he did in 2011 when he had 207 hits and batted .307. He can also be a player that does not even pay any attention in the infield, be in the top two of the National League in errors committed for four straight years, and have an OPS+ of 71, as he did last season. The Cubs also have some young prospects like Junior Lake and triple-A sensation Javier Baez, who hopefully pays more attention at shortstop than Starlin Castro. The Cubs have not had a team ERA under 3.80 since all the way back in 1992, the year Greg Maddux won his first of four consecutive Cy Young Awards, and they should not be expecting to break the drought this season. Edwin Jackson is the NBA's version of Larry King or Mickey Rooney, as he has been on eight different teams since 2005, and has not had one season with any of them with an ERA under 3.60 (why is he still hot commodity at this point). Jeff Samardzija has a pretty good two-seamer and Travis Wood was the Cubs first All-Star since Ted Lilly in 2009, but the Cubs are the Cubs, and they should expect a lot of losses in 2013 (what else is new).
NL West Preview:
There is a rather large divide between the amount of money that the Dodgers and Giants spend in the NL West and the more conservative approach that the Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Padres take within their organization. The Dodgers have the largest opening day payroll in the big leagues at around 235 million dollars, which means that for the first time since 1998, the Yankees will not be at the top of the majors in total salary for their players. The San Francisco Giants are another team that is not afraid to spend some money, as they are in the top 9 of the MLB in payroll for the 5th consecutive season. However, the San Diego Padres, for example, spend so little money that Zack Greinke, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, and Carl Crawford for the Dodgers will be making more money in 2014 than their entire roster. Meanwhile, the Rockies have only been in the top half of the major leagues in payroll once since 2005. Obviously, as we have learned over the past several years, money does not automatically buy you success or a championship (the Phillies didn't even make the postseason last year with the 3rd highest payroll while the A's, Pirates, and Rays did with three of the five lowest MLB salaries) and you can certainly have a few good years with a core group of players and quality prospects that have come through your franchise to perform. The Padres made the World Series in 1998, the Rockies did so as well in 2007, and the Diamondbacks won the Fall Classic in 2001 while the Dodgers have not been to a World Series since 1988. However, it is much harder to maintain prolonged success when the spending is just not there. The Padres have made the playoffs only 5 times in 45 seasons and the Rockies have only been there 3 times in 21 years whereas the Dodgers have been in the postseason 14 times in the last 41 years alone. The big spending clubs should be at the top of the NL West once again in 2014.
Los Angeles Dodgers/San Francisco Giants Preview:
It is World Series or bust for the big spending Los Angeles Dodgers this season, an organization that has put together a team worth more than 235 million dollars in salary in hopes of winning their first World Series since they had Orel Hershiser and pinch hitting, no-legged Kirk Gibson in 1988. LA is loaded everywhere you look, from their lineup with guys like Carl Crawford, Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, and Andre Either to their pitching staff of Kershaw, Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Dan Haren to their bullpen, highlighted by Brian Wilson and Kenley Jansen. At the plate, especially if Matt Kemp can remain healthy, the Dodgers should improve upon their hitting that was 3rd in the NL in batting average and on-base percentage and 4th in hits last year. It is a little concerning that Adrian Gonzalez seems to have lost some of the power that he once had in San Diego with the Padres, especially the pop he had to take the ball the other way (A-Gon did not hit a single opposite field home run last year, after knocking out 10 to left field in his 36 home run, 119 RBI season in 2008). Despite some of his loss in power, A-Gon is still a very complete hitter because he is going to hit 80 percent of the pitches he sees in the strike zone, regardless if they are fastballs or off-speed stuff, and he is going to drive in a lot of runs, as he has a career batting average of .328 with runners in scoring position. A-Gon has hit above .290 every year since 2010 (he has the 11th best batting average over the last 4 years in the MLB), so the bigger question mark is the enigma that is Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez has all the talent in the world to be one of the game's best shortstops with Troy Tulowitzki (remember when he finished 2nd in the MVP in 2009 when he hit .342 with the Marlins), but it is hard to know if you are going to get the Hanley that is passionate, engaged, and willing to do anything to win on a day-to-day basis. Speaking of people who could never surprise you with their antics, Yasiel Puig is another extraordinarily dynamic, but also sometimes alarming guy for LA. We all saw last year that Puig can do literally anything on a baseball field from running around the bases and causing havoc to throwing guys out from deep right field to just hitting some bombs for home runs, but he can also be rather lazy in the outfield and just make some real careless plays at the plate or on the bases. We will see how Don Mattingly decides to handle the fiery Puig, but one thing Mattingly will not have to worry about is Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, or Haren. In fact, it is not to far fetched to think that Kershaw could one day be in the conversation with Sandy Koufax, Randy Johnson, Warren Spahn, Lefty Grove, and Steve Carlton for the best left handed pitcher of all-time. Greinke is not a bad number two at all to go behind Kershaw, as the 2009 Cy Young Award winner has one of the best sliders in all of baseball (batters have a career .159 batting average against his slider). The Blue Crew certainly have more than enough talent to be remembered as the best LA team since the 1955 Dodger squad that had MVP Roy Campanella, Gil Hodges, Pee Wee Reese, Duke Snider, Carl Furillo, and Don Newcombe or the 1963 Dodger club that featured Frank Howard, Tommy Davis, Don Drysdale, and Cy Young and MVP (the second pitcher to ever do so) Sandy Koufax. However, it is impossible to guarantee anything, even on a team that is as stacked as the 2014 Dodgers, although you can pretty much guarantee that Donald Sterling will not be attending any games at Chavez Ravine any time soon.
The San Francisco Giants have been following a rather odd pattern over the past several years, but as unique of an occurrence as it may be, weird patterns do happen to arise all the time in pro sports. Last year, the Jets became the first team in NFL history to alternate wins and losses through their first 10 games of the season, a pattern they continued until they lost to the Bills and Ravens in consecutive weeks in November thanks to some very poor displays from Geno Smith. From 2009 to 2012, the team that played the Eagles in Philly's home opener went on to win the Super Bowl (In 2009, the Saints beat the Eagles in week 2 and then beat the Colts in the Super Bowl. The Packers beat the Eagles in week 1 in 2010 and went on to beat the Steelers in the Super Bowl. In 2011, the Giants beat the Eagles in week 3 and won the Super Bowl by beating the undefeated Patriots. The Ravens lost to the Eagles in week 2 in 2012, but playing the Eagles in Philly's home opener still helped them beat the 49ers in the Super Bowl). The Giants have been following a similar pattern that is very difficult to explain. In 2009, despite Tim Lincecum becoming the first pitcher since Pedro Martinez in 1999 and 2000 to win back-to-back Cy Young Awards, the Giants missed out on the postseason because their lineup ranked 26th in the MLB in runs scored. The following year, behind a pitching staff that was the best in the big leagues in ERA and batting average against, San Francisco won their first World Series since back in 1954 when they had Johnny Antonelli, Hoyt Wilhelm, Monte Irvin, and Willie Mays. However, in 2011, the Giants regressed once again and missed out on the playoffs entirely, mainly due to their lineup averaging a paltry 3.52 runs per game, the 2nd fewest in the major leagues and their least runs scored in a full season since they went 62-100 in 1985 (that team did not even have somebody hit 20 home runs). This did not stop the Giants from returning the next season and becoming the first team since the 2007 Red Sox to sweep the World Series and the first franchise since the Yankees from 1998 to 2000 to win at least two titles in a three year stretch. Nonetheless, in 2013, the Giants failed to reach the postseason once again, as they had their most losses in a season and their worst divisional finish in the NL West since 2008. Looking at this trend, it means that the Giants are destined to win the World Series this year because of their miss the postseason and then win it all tendency that they have shown since 2009.
If the Giants are going to win the World Series in 2014 and continue their peculiar pattern, they need their rotation to be towards the top of baseball in every pitching category and not with a team ERA outside of the top 20 like they had last year. It feels like Madison Bumgarner has been around the major leagues forever, maybe because he was so good in the Giants World Series run in 2010 when he was just a rookie, but Bumgarner is only 24 years old and is still improving, especially on his curveball and change-up to compliment his already established fastball and slider. Bumgarner was 3rd in the NL in hits per 9 innings, 5th in ERA and WHIP, and 7th in strikeouts, base on balls per 9 innings, and FIP last season, which was largely due to his ability to locate his fastball and strikeout hitters with his nasty slider. Nearly 40 percent of Bumgarner's pitches in 2013 were sliders, which was the 3rd highest rate behind only Ervin Santana and Yu Darvish in baseball, but when you can get 4 inches of downward vertical movement on your slider (the most in the NL), you might as well keep on throwing the pitch. However, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, and Ryan Vogelsong need to have bounce back seasons for the Giants because they aren't going to the Fall Classic with Cain repeating his worst ever year in the MLB, Tim Lincecum having his 3rd straight season with an ERA above 4.35, and Ryan Vogelsong posting a horrendous 5.73 ERA like he did last year. Of the three, Cain is almost a certainty to have a comeback season because his ERA was just 2.71 over his last 12 starts in 2013 and his ability to command his fastball around the zone is just too good for him to have another poor year. Although the Giants did add the biggest bulldog in all of sports, Tim Hudson, to solidify their rotation, Vogelsong and Lincecum are still pretty big question marks. Vogelsong did suffer a pretty bad hand injury that made him miss much of the season in 2013, but it may be asking a lot of him to return to the pitcher in 2012 who set the Giants single-season record for consecutive quality starts ahead of pitchers like Atlee Hammaker, Gaylord Perry, and Juan Marichal. Meanwhile, Lincecum's dip in velocity on his fastball from 92 to 93 mph all the way down to the high 80's has been a huge cause for concern in San Francisco. Lincecum no longer has the same change of speed on his pitches because his fastball is no longer that much harder than his change-up or slider, which not only allows batters to catch up to his fastball, but also makes his change-up that was once downright unhittable, not as effective anymore. The Giants, however, do have a much improved lineup from the past, one that ranked in the top 10 in batting average, hits, triples, and sacrifice hits for situational hitting in 2013. Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro are more than capable table setters for the Giants big bats of Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, and Pablo Sandoval. Posey and Pence are going to be the Giants consistent hitters in the middle of their lineup (Posey is one of only two Giants to ever lead the National League in batting average in a season along with Barry Bonds) while Belt and Sandoval should provide the power, especially Belt, who had the 9th highest NL adjusted OPS+ and the 10th most extra base hits in 2013.
Arizona Diamondbacks Preview/Colorado Rockies/San Diego Padres Preview:
In 2012 and 2013, the Diamondbacks finished the season at exactly .500 with a record of 81-81 and with a lineup that looks to be pretty solid but nothing special and a pitching staff that does have some concerns, especially after the injury to stud Patrick Corbin, Arizona looks destined for another very average year. The addition of power hitting Mark Trumbo into the middle of a Diamondbacks lineup that was 26th in the majors in home runs last year will give them some much needed pop. Trumbo hit 29 home runs in 2011, 32 in 2012, and 34 in 2013 with the Angels to give him 95 home runs over the past three years, the 7th most in the major leagues. Trumbo is really a straight pull hitter (he has just 6 career home runs to the opposite field) and left field in Chase Field is only about 330 feet from home plate, which should allow him to pull the ball over the fence with all of the big cuts that he takes on pitches. Arizona will also need to get some production from the players around Paul Goldschimdt because Goldschmidt is going to drive in a lot of runs and get on base at a very high rate. Aaron Hill is definitely declining as he is entering his 11th year in the league at the age of 32, but he can still be one of the league's most consistent second basemen that isn't named Cano, Pedroia, or Kinsler, especially if he can stay healthy because he was 3rd in the NL in total bases, 5th in hits, and 8th in the in OPS in his last full season in 2012. Martin Prado and Gerardo Parra are both solid hitters that can hit for average while Arizona will need a bounce back year from Miguel Montero to help Arizona improve from 14th in the MLB in runs scored, 15 in on-base plus slugging percentage, and 18th in slugging percentage, which were all down from the previous season. Luckily for the Diamondbacks, if all else goes wrong, they will always be able to hop on the back of Paul Goldschmidt, who led the NL in home runs, runs batted in, total bases, extra base hits, slugging percentage, adjusted and regular on-base plus slugging percentage, and adjusted batting runs and wins in 2013. Without Patrick Corbin, though, Arizona's pitching staff could be in for some trouble because Wade Miley, Trevor Cahill, Brandon McCarthy, and Bronson Arroyo are all solid inning eaters but are far from top end rotation guys. Arizona did make a very smart move in bringing in Addison Reed, who was 5th in the AL in saves last season with the White Sox, and will help a Diamondbacks bullpen that was tied with the Astros for the most blown saves in baseball in 2013.
There are only a few things scarier than a pitcher throwing at Coors Field: Carmelo Anthony staying with the New York Knicks, James Harden playing defense, and the Chicago Bulls on offense. With the thin air of Coors Field and the high elevation at the ballpark, it is a hitters dream to step to the plate at the stadium because the ball just flies through the dry air in Colorado like nowhere else. In 1999, Coors Field was the site of 303 total home runs, the most ever at a stadium in one season in MLB history. The stadium has been in the bottom 3 of the majors in runs allowed every year except for once since 2001, and it has been the ballpark that has allowed the most runs in the majors six times in the last thirteen years. National League teams had an average ERA of 3.74 in 2013, but at Coors Field, their ERA went all the way up to 4.29 in Denver. In fact, two years ago, the Rockies had an ERA of 4.41 on the road, but a ridiculously high ERA of 5.97 at home (the next lowest ERA for a team in 2012 at their home stadium was the Red Sox, but all the way down at a 4.75 ERA). Coming off a season in which they put together the 2nd fewest quality starts in baseball, Colorado will need to see a significant improvement from Jorge De La Rosa, Tyler Chatwood, and Juan Nicasio. De La Rosa, who went 16-6 with a 3.76 FIP, is the most likely to help Colorado improve their pitching because he can mix in his slider and change-up with his mid 90's fastball. Even with the addition of Brett Anderson, a guy that will provide the Rockies with some left handed pitching, they will need to score a lot of runs in order to stay somewhere around the .500 mark, and they do have Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki to help them with that. Cargo and Tulo are the best 3-4 combo in all of baseball (Chris Davis and Adam Jones or Prince Fielder and Adrain Beltre might disagree with that), and could both be the best at their respective positions in the MLB. As long as Gonzalez and Tulowitzki stay healthy, they are both going to hit at least 25 home runs, bat above .300, and have an OPS around .900, which means that they will need some help from the guys around them in the lineup. The chances that Michael Cuddyer leads the NL in batting average and is 4th in slugging percentage like he did in 2013 is highly unlikely, and Justin Morneau looks nothing like the guy that won the AL MVP in 2006. Coors Field could be the site of a lot of hits and home runs and the Rockies 5th straight season under 85 wins.
The San Diego Padres have had three consecutive seasons with more than 85 losses and they have not been to the postseason since 2005 when they still fell to the St. Louis Cardinals in 4 games in the NLDS. With a team that just does not have the talent of most of the other clubs in the big leagues, the only thing people in San Diego will be looking forward to is another year where the Chargers win anywhere from 7 to 9 games and blow endless amount of opportunities in the 4th quarter. The Padres pitching staff has a lot of unknowns and question marks and pitchers that they are desperately hoping will have a bounce back season in 2014. Like almost every other MLB team that has been affected with the epidemic of elbow and shoulder problems going around baseball, the Pads have already been hit by the injury bug. Cory Luebke (what a great name), who had a 2.92 FIP and a 1.067 WHIP in 2011, will need his second Tommy John Surgery in the last three years, and the Padres gamble on signing Josh Johnson to a one-year deal and hoping he would return to his 2010 form when he led the NL in ERA, ERA+, FIP, and HR/9 also looks to have failed because Johnson may need to get his second career Tommy John Surgery. Even their pitchers that will be out there in 2014 are looking for redemption years or are guys with very little starting pitching experience. Ian Kennedy had a 2.88 ERA, the 6th best WHIP in the NL, the 7th highest strikeouts/base on balls ratio, and a National League leading 21 wins in 2011, but since then, he is a very sub-par 22-22 with a 4.43 ERA, a 4.30 FIP, a 1.345 WHIP, and a 9.1 hits per 9 innings. Tyson Ross and Robbie Erlin are both unproven starters and Andrew Cashner, the highly rated prospect the Padres received in the Anthony Rizzo trade, can hit the high 90's with his blazing fastball and has a pretty good slider, but he needs to improve upon his pitch locations in order to take the next step. As if the Padres starting rotation didn't have enough question marks, their lineup will need a lot of guys to have comeback years in 2014 just so that they can contend for their first winning season since they had Adrian Gonzalez, Mat Latos, and a Heath Bell that could actually pitch without grooving fastballs over the plate in 2010. Carlos Quentin has shown that when he is healthy he can hit in the 25 home run range and Chase Headley became the 2nd Padres player along with Dave Winfield in 1979 to lead the NL in RBI's when he did so in 2012. However, a bating order of players like Yonder Alonson, Jedd Gyorko, Chris Denorfia, Will Venable, and Seth Smith is nothing that opposing pitchers are going to fear.
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