Saturday, August 20, 2011

If Arsenal Wants To Contend In The Premier League, They Will Have To Spend Some Money

The last time Arsenal finished out of the top four in the Premier League was more than 15 years ago in 1995-1996 when they finished in 5th place. Arsenal has not looked like a top four team this season. They have just 1 point in two games and have not scored a goal in their first two games for the first time in 42 years. The Gunners lost to Liverpool at home for the first time in more than ten years, and their next premier league fixture is against the defending league champion Manchester United. If Arsenal isn't willing to spend any money to bring in some new players, they will likely be watching the Champions League next season instead of playing in it.

Arsenal has had a thin roster for their last two games because guys have left their team or are on loan. On July 4th, Arsenal lost their starting defender Gael Clichy to Manchester City as he signed a four-year deal worth 7 million dollars. He was tied for the team led with 33 starts at outside back last year. On August 16th, Arsenal lost another defender, Emmanuel Eboue, to the Turkish club Galatasaray for 3.5 million dollars. Without Clichy and Eboue, Arsenal has been struggling to find a solid defender. They have experimented with both Kieran Gibbs and Carl Jenkinson, but they are both very young and unproven. The Gunners have also been troubled with whom to pair in the middle with Laurent Koscielny, as they have gone away from Sebastien Squillaci and they have begun to use the inexperienced Thomas Vermaelen. 

Considering that last season with Clichy the Gunners let up 43 goals, 10 more than Chelsea and Manchester City, they will be conceding much more this season with unproven guys in the back. Arsenal needs to some cash and bring in some fresh faces to play in the back, and even Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger admitted that. "Certainly, we will have to find one more defender. We are working on it." Arsenal's 12 million dollar bid for center defender Phil Jagielka was turned down by Everton and it will most likely take an offer around 18 million for the English defender to come to Emirates Stadium. Although 18 million is a lot for a defender, Jagielka would be a great pairing with Koscielny in the middle and it would please many of the very unhappy Arsenal fans who want the team to spend some money in the market. If Arsenal is reluctant to spend that much on Jagielka, they could also look at Gary Cahill of Bolton, Chris Samba of Blackburn, or Scott Dann of Birmingham City, all of whom would cost less than Everton is asking for Jagielka. 

Although bringing in a defender should be Arsenal's first prior, they also need some help in the midfield and up front. Arsenal no longer has their captain, Cesc Fabregas, in the mix. The Spanish midfielder returned to his former club Barcelona on August 15th after years of speculation if he would go back to play for them. He was signed for a fee that could be worth as much as 39 million, which would obviously give Arsenal a lot of room to make some moves. More money should be available to Arsenal as their French midfielder, Samri Nasri, is reportedly close to going to Manchester City for around 25 million. 

Without Fabreags or Nasri in the middle, Arsenal will need to bring in a quality player in the midfield. Jack Wilshere is still out with an ankle injury and Andrei Arshavin has really struggled with the club since his great start in 2009. Mathieu Valbuena of Marseille and Eden Hazard of Lille are the two most likely targets for Arsenal. Although Marseille said that they would listen to offers for Valbuena, they are unlikely to deal him at this time. The more likely option is Eden Hazard, but it will definitely cost the Gunners a lot of cash. Arsenal will have to be willing to pay Lille 30 million for the Belgian winger. It's more likely that Arsenal signs a defender before they would spend 30 million on Hazard, but the French League One Player of the Year would be a great threat to a depleted Arsenal side.

While Arsenal have lost Clichy, Eboue, Fabregas, Vela, and Denilson on transfers or loans and are about to lose Nasri and Bendtner, other top premier league teams have bolstered their squads in hopes of making a run at the premier league title. Liverpool were big buyers this summer. To sure up their midfield issues, they brought in Stewart Downing and Charlie Adam. Liverpool spent about 20 million to get Downing from Aston Villa and the long suspected transfer of Adam to play in Anfield Stadium finally concluded for a cost of about 7 million. They also shored up their left back position by bringing in Jose Enrique from Newcastle for about 6 million. As always, Manchester City spent a lot of money to make a run at the title. Besides the signing of Clichy for 7 million, they also bought defender Stefan Savic for around 6 million. Their big splash came when they signed Argentinean striker, Sergio Aguero, in the second biggest Premier League transfer deal for 35 million dollars from Atletico Madrid. Chelsea signed Orio Romeu from Barcelona for 5 million and the young Belgian striker, Romelu Lukaku, for about 20 million. Manchester United spent the most money of any premier league team with their three big signings that cost a combine 54 million dollars. They bought young England defender Phil Jones for about 16 million, Atletico Madrid goalkeeper David De Gea for about 18 million, and Ashley Young from Aston Villa for about 20 million. With Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea, and Manchester United all spending a lot of money to bring in quality players, Arsenal will have to bring in some new players or they will likely fall out of the top four.

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Jim Thome Is A First Ballot Hall Of Famer

After hitting his 599th home run over the porch in left-center field in the 6th inning, Jim Thome wasted little time to join the exclusive club of 600 home run hitters. With a 2-1 count, and Daniel Schlereth on the mound, Thome got a breaking ball on the outside corner and crushed it over the fence in left to become the 8th player in major league history to hit 600 home runs. Thome has now joined the 600 homer club, but that is not the last club he should be joining. He should also be recognized as one of the greatest baseball players of all-time and enter Cooperstown as a first ballot hall of famer.

Only 7 other players aside from Thome have hit at least 600 home runs in their career. From April 27, 1971 until August 9, 2002, a span of over 30 years, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, and Willie Mays stood as the only three players in MLB history to have hit 600 homers. Although Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, and Sammy Sosa joined Aaron, Ruth, and Mays in the 600 home run club, all three have had connections with performance enhancing drugs. Baseball numbers, like 600 home runs, are sacred and the numbers that Bonds, Rodriguez, and Sosa have put up are tainted and inflated. In contrast, Jim Thome has never failed a steroid test and he has, by all indications, never used performance enhancing drugs. Therefore, if you take out guys like Bonds, Rodriguez, and Sosa, Thome is just the 5th player in MLB history to have hit 600 home runs. It should be noted that Ken Griffey also hit 600 homers, so he would be the fourth man to have accomplished the milestone. If you think about all the great power hitters that have played in the big leagues such as Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Mickey Mantle, Jimmie Foxx, and Willie McCovey, none of them hit 600 home runs in their career, and all of them were first ballot hall of famers.

Although Thome's lifetime batting average is just under .280, he had 8 seasons where he batted over .280, including three seasons where he has batted over .300. His career average has dropped a few points as he has gotten older, but when he was in his prime, he hit for power and average. In 2002 he hit 52 home runs and had a batting average of .304. There have been many other first ballot hall of famers with similar averages as Thome. Willie McCovey was a career .270 hitter and never batted over .280 in his final 10 seasons. Johnny Bench had a .267 lifetime batting average, Joe Morgan had a .271 lifetime batting average, and Ernie Banks had a career .274 batting average. 

Thome is not a very fast guy by any stretch of the imagination, but he is a run-scoring-machine. He scored over 100 runs 8 times during his career, including 2002 when he scored over 100 runs on an Indians team that was 74-88 and finished more than 20 games out of first place. Thome's 1,553 runs scored are more than first ballot hall of famers and speedsters Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn, Ozzie Smith, and Jackie Robinson. 

Thome has also been very productive at driving guys in. He has had 9 seasons where he has driven in over 100 RBIs, including a career high of 131 in 2003. Here is an unbelievable stat - if you combine the 100 RBI years of Jackie Robinson, Kirby Puckett, Robin Yount, and Paul Molitor, it equals the amount of 100 RBI years of Jim Thome. His 1,662 RBIs are good for 27th all-time, ahead of guys like George Brett, Mike Schmidt, Al Kaline, Mickey Mantle, Tony Gwynn, and Rod Carew. Thome's on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and on-base plus slugging percentage have always been at the top of the league. His on-base percentage was in the top 5 of his league six times, with his career high at .450. Thome's career on-base percentage of .4033 is better than first ballot hall of famers Carl Yastrzemski, Willie Mays, and Frank Robinson. His ability to be very patient at the plate and take his walks has really helped his on-base percentage. He led the AL in walks three times and is eighth all-time in career walks. He led the AL in slugging in 2002 and his .558 slugging percentage is good for 20th all-time. His on-base plus slugging percentage for his career is .961, which is 17th all-time and better than hall of famers like Ty Cobb, Willie Mays, and Carl Yastrzemski.

Thome's productivity and longevity shows that he deserves to be a first ballot hall of famer. This is Thome's 21st season in the big leagues, and he has had season after season of solid hitting. From 1994 to 2010, that's 17 years, he's had more than 20 home runs every year except for 2005, when he missed over 100 games with an injury. He's had 12 seasons of 30 or more home runs, including one as recently as 2008 with the White Sox. It's pretty impressive that a guy who began his MLB career in 1991 can hit 34 home runs at the age of 37. He's also had six 40 home run seasons, the most recent in 2006, also as a member of the White Sox. To put how good Thome has been for an extended period of time in perspective, in Willie McCovey's final 10 seasons in the big leagues, he never hit more than 30 home runs and had less than 20 homers 6 times. In Brooks Robinson's final 6 seasons, he never hit more than 10 home runs and never scored more than 53 runs. The ability of Thome to be productive and consistent for more than 20 seasons, through the age of 39, is something very special. Only a very few ball players can lay claim to his accomplishments over the course of 20-plus seasons.

Some people argue that Thome shouldn't be a first ballot hall of famer because he never won an MVP. That is ridiculous! Thome has been a consistent MVP candidate although he has never won the award. In 2002 he hit 52 home runs, but finished 7th in the AL MVP voting because his Indians team finished more than 20 games out of first place in the AL Central. The next year he finished in fourth place in the NL MVP voting after he hit 47 home runs and drove in 131 runs in his first year with the Phillies. Thome was unlucky because that same year, Gary Sheffield, Albert Pujols, and Barry Bonds all hit at least 39 home runs. Barry "Steriod" Bonds won the MVP that year. Of the last 9 batters that were first ballot hall of famers, seven of them, Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs, Paul Molitor, Eddie Murray, Ozzie Smith, Dave Winfield, and Kirby Puckett never won an MVP. All-time greats and first ballot hall of famers Al Kaline and Lou Brock never won an MVP during their careers as well. Others argue that Thome made just 5 all-star games in his career. Robin Yount made just three all-star games and was a first ballot hall of famer. Lou Brock, Willie McCovey, and Jackie Robinson made just one more all-star game than Thome and were all first ballot hall of famers. 

To keep in perspective what a prolific home run hitter Jim Thome has been, over 17,000 people have played major league baseball, and only 8 guys have hit 600 homers!

Sunday, August 14, 2011

MLB Awards Watch

AL Cy Young: The AL Cy Young is a three man race between Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, and CC Sabathia. Verlander has been the ace of the AL Central leading Detroit Tigers, and has been their horse the entire season. Verlander began the season 2-3, even though his ERA was just 3.75 at the time, but since then he has gone 15-2, including an outstanding 9-0 record in the months of May and June. Verlander's unhittable stuff has been highlighted by his 1 walk no hitter on May 7th against the Blue Jays and his two other near no hitters against the Indians on June 14th and the Angles on July 31st. Verlander leads the league in nearly every pitching category including innings pitched, strikeouts, wins, WHIP, and is also 3rd in ERA. With the inconsistency of A.J. Burnett and the injuries to Phil Hughes and Bartolo Colon, CC Sabathia has been the main cog in keeping the Yankees in reaching distance of the first place Boston Red Sox. Sabathia has eaten up innings when the bullpen has needed rest, evidenced by being second in the MLB with 190.2 innings pitched. He went 11-1 from May 19 to July 16, and kept the Yankees in the AL East race. Sabathia's 16 wins are second in the MLB, and the only thing holding him back from winning the AL Cy Young is his struggles against the Red Sox. CC is 16-3 against every team other than the Sox, but is 0-4 against the Yanks arch rivals. In his last three starts against the Red Sox he has been rocked for more than 6 runs each time. Jered Weaver has had a roller coaster season. He began the year 6-0 with a sub 1.00 ERA, but then lost his next four starts and fell to 6-4. Weaver bounced back once again and improved his record to 14-4 with an unbelievable 1.79 ERA. However, Weaver was knocked around yesterday in the shortest start of his career, as he was lit up for 8 runs in just 4.2 innings. His ERA skyrocketed from 1.78 to 2.13 and Verlander has now surpassed him as the front runner for the award.

AL MVP: The AL MVP will most likely go to either Adrian Gonzalez or Curtis Granderson. When Gonzalez was acquired by the Red Sox, they knew he was a great player, but they could of never have expected him to be this good in his first season with a new team in a different league. Gonzo has exceeded expectations and has the Fenway faithful jumping with joy every time he steps up to bat. The power hitting first basemen leads the MLB in hits and has a .351 average, which is 15 points higher than any other player in the league. He also is second in the AL in RBIs and doubles. Gonzalez has never been held hitless for more than 2 games in a row, and he is also a gold glove first baseman to go along with his outstanding batting numbers. The only thing that Gonzalez is struggling with is his power numbers, especially since the all-star break when he participated in the home run derby. Before the All-Star game, Gonzalez had 17 home runs and was 10th in the AL in the category. Since the home run derby, he has just 1 home run and is now 20th in the AL in homers. Curtis Granderson has no doubt been the Yankees MVP and the surprise of that team. Coming into this season, Granderson's career high in home runs was 30 in 2009, and his career high in RBIs was 74 in 2007. With 44 games remaining, Granderson has an astonishing 33 home runs, which is tied for the most in the league, and leads the AL in RBIs with 94. Joe Girardi said about all the home runs Curtis is hitting, “The real difference is really against left-handers too, I think he has 11 home runs off left-handers, and more homers off lefties than anyone in baseball and that's not common that you see a left-handed hitter be the guy leading in that category. He just seems to make solid contact and he's got bat speed and pulls the ball, and we've seen him hit homers the other way into left-center and we've seen them all over, he just has a lot of power and when you look at his frame, that's not what you necessarily think of, but he does." Granderson also leads the league in runs scored with 107, 22 more than any other player, and leads the AL with 9 triples. If the Red Sox win the division, Gonzalez will likely win the award, but if Granderson can continue to hit well and lead the Yankees to a division win, he will likely take home the MVP.

NL Cy Young: Unlike the AL, where Verlander, Weaver, and Sabathia have been the three dominating pitchers, the NL Cy Young race is much more up for grabs. The most likely candidate is last year's winner, Roy Halladay. Doc is once again having a great season with a 15-4 record and a 2.51 ERA. There was a stretch from mid-May to early July when in 10 straight Roy Halladay starts, the Phillies were victorious. During that stretch, Doc allowed 2 runs or less 6 times. If Halladay were to win the award, he would be just the fourth pitcher to win the NL Cy Young award in back to back years. The only other contenders to Halladay are Ian Kennedy of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Kennedy has revived his career in his second season with the NL West leading Diamondbacks. He struggled mightily as a starter for the Yankees, but he has looked great in Arizona as he has a 15-3 record with a 3.12 ERA. Kennedy has made a furious charge for the award in the last month. Since July 8th, he is 7-0 and hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of his starts. Clayton Kershaw is 14-5 and leads the NL in strikeouts with 193 and is tied with Halladay for the most innings pitched. Clayton has had 6 games where he has struck out more than 10 batters. Kershaw began the year 2-3, but turned it around and went 6-0 in May and June, and is now 14-5. 

NL MVP: Much like the NL Cy Young, the NL MVP is still up in the air and still has many contenders for the award. The leading candidates for the award, Prince Fielder, Justin Upton, and Matt Kemp, and all have a chance to gain a stronghold on the award in their last 40 games or so. Fielder looks like the frontrunner today. His team is beginning to run away with the NL Central, and he is having a career year in all categories. Fielder has always been a big power hitter with the ability to drive in runs in a very good Brewer lineup. He is third in the NL in home runs with 27, and is second in RBIs with 89. Those kinds of numbers are expected from Fielder, but his average is also way up from last year and he has cut down on his strikeouts. Last year he batted .261, but this season his average is up 47 points to .308. In the Brewers 15-2 stretch since July 26, Fielder had 5 home runs, 16 RBIs, and his average had risen from .287 to .308. Just like how Fielder has been instrumental in helping the Brewers stretch their lead in the NL Central to 5 games over the Cardinals, Justin Upton has done the same thing for the Diamondbacks. His hot hitting has led the Diamondbacks to a 1.5 game lead over the Giants in the NL West. Upton has had an all around solid year and is in the top 10 of nearly every single NL batting category. He is batting .306, has 24 home runs to go along with his 74 RBI's, and also has scored 78 runs, which is tied for the 4th most in the NL. Like Upton, Matt Kemp has had an all around solid season. He is fifth in batting average at .318, third in home runs with 27, third in RBIs with 88, and is fourth in the NL with 30 stolen bases. Although Upton may have slightly worse numbers than Kemp, Upton probably has a leg up on him in the race because the Diamondbacks are leading the West, and the Dodgers are 12 games behind.

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

August 9

Today is August 9, 2011 and it's my 16th birthday. I am currently spending my last summer as a camper in Maine, and today was the culmination of our Olympic games. Senior camp is divided into two teams, the greens and the greys. There are many different kinds of sporting activities that occur during the four day competition, with the last event being the wacked-up-relay. The final event in the relay, which usually decides the entire Olympics, is the pie-eating contest. Today was the closest Olympics in my eight years at camp, and fortunately, MY TEAM WON!

Exactly 75 years ago today on August 9, 1936, Jesse Owens won his fourth gold medal in track and field at the Games of the XI Olympiad in Berlin, Germany. He became the first American to win four gold medals in one Olympiad. Owens was the most successful athlete at the games, and the victory was noteworthy as Adolf Hitler had intended the 1936 games to showcase “Aryan racial superiority.” Hitler was upset with the success of Jesse Owens, and wanted to ban Africans from partaking in future games.

On the world stage, the Olympics can bring people together from all different backgrounds and unite them in competition.

At camp, Olympics create a bond amongst the campers. Tomorrow, it will not matter if you were on the green team or the grey team because the memories will bind everyone who competed together.

Friday, July 22, 2011

How 'Bout Those Bucs?

Go ahead, try and name 5 players on the Pirates. No, their starting lineup doesn’t include Willie Stargell and Roberto Clemente, but that hasn’t stopped the Bucs from leading the NL Central. The Pirates haven’t been above .500 after the All-Star break since 1992. They haven’t had a winning season since that year either, and their 18-year drought is the longest in history of the four major sports. And by the way, that losing streak which began in 1993, well it is the same year that Barry Bonds left for San Francisco.

To show you what winning does, the Pirates have had the second-largest attendance increase in the National League this season and television ratings are up 32%. What makes their success even more unbelievable is that they have nine players on their roster that opened the year in the minors, including 7 who made their major league debut this season. In addition, injuries have forced the Pirates to use 7 catchers. The Bucs opening day payroll was about $ 45 million, the lowest in the National League. Interestingly, the Pirates have spent more than $ 30 million signing draft picks the last 3 years. That is more than any other team in the majors, and it’s a result of having many top draft picks. Things are usually so hopeless around the end of July that the Pirates have typically traded veterans to contenders. Now the Pirates are looking to add salary for the pennant race.

The Pirates rank 13 amongst the 16 NL teams in runs scored, and their .245 team batting average is near the bottom as well, but their pitching staff has a 3.34 ERA, 5th best in the league.  Ironically, the pitching staff ranks last in strikeouts, and they’ve issued very few walks, so they challenge the opposing team to put the ball in play. This only magnifies the cliché that good pitching and defense is what wins ballgames. Clint Hurdle has brought an enthusiasm to the team that has obviously been contagious. It is amazing what winning can do for a team’s confidence. Hurdle is a master motivator, and he has made sure to surround the clubhouse with photos of the 5 Pirate championship teams between 1909 and 1979.

Maybe now the Pirates can break another streak. They haven’t hosted a national Sunday night telecast in 11 years! 

Saturday, July 9, 2011

It’s A Numbers Game!

There is something about baseball and numbers that fans love to talk about and debate. If you say the number “56” one immediately thinks of DiMaggio. If you say “406” everyone knows that was Ted Williams batting average in 1941. There is something about our national pastime that makes these numbers so sacred, and why the steroid era infuriates the baseball purist who can’t stand that their sport has been tainted. As Derek Jeter approaches his 3000th hit, the argument heard around office water coolers is what stat is more significant, 500 homers, 3000 hits, or 300 wins.
Years ago, 500 homers was a plateau few guys reached. For a long time the big three were Aaron with 755, Ruth with 714, and Mays with 660. You also had guys like Frank Robinson, Mickey Mantle, and Ernie Banks as members of the club. Now you have Bonds, A-Rod, Sosa, McGwire, Palmeiro, and Ramirez in the top 14, and all have been implicated in steroid usage. Their inflated home run totals have tarnished this previous gold standard of success. Also, parks are smaller now and the pitching is watered down from yesteryears. There are currently 25 men in the 500-homer club, but many are in hot pursuit.
Two hundred hits in a season has always been the benchmark of a very good offensive year, so if one can do that for 15 years, they would have 3000 hits. Jeter is set to become only the 28th player to join that club, which shows that it’s a terrific accomplishment. There is also a great amount of consistency, and good health, needed to accumulate that many hits. There are also 3 active players with more than 2700 hits – Ivan Rodriguez, Omar Vizquel, and A-Rod.
However, getting 300 wins is the most difficult! One must average 20 wins a year for 15 years. From 2006-2010 the number of 20 game winners in the majors was 0, 1, 4, 0, 2. Not an easy task in any one year, let alone doing it 15 straight years! Remember also that pitchers now have 5-7 fewer starts with a 5-man rotation than years ago. When talking about records that will never be broken, one has to mention the 1971 season when the four Oriole starting pitchers each had at least 20 wins – Palmer, Cuellar, McNally, and Dobson. To reach 300 wins, the pitcher has to play on a very good team and have a solid bullpen so as not to increase the likelihood of leads being lost. The stats also bear out the fact that there are far more non-decisions for pitchers now than at any other time in baseball history. We may not see another 300 game winner for many, many years. Jamie Moyer leads all active players with 267 wins and he is followed by Tim Wakefield’s 198! Roy Halladay is third amongst active players with 180 wins to date. If the season ended today, Halladay would have to pitch 6 more seasons and win 20 games each one. To gain a perspective on how hard it is to win 20 games, as great a pitcher as Halladay is, he has won at least 20 games only 3 times in his 13 year career. It is a pretty safe bet than to say that Halladay will not win 300 games either. Any by the way, I think it is a pretty safe bet to say that no one will ever top Cy Young’s record of 511 wins!

Monday, June 20, 2011

Men's Notable Wimbledon First Round Matches

27. Marin Cilic vs Ivan Ljubicic: The Croatians will meet for the second time in their careers at the All England Lawn Championship in the first round. Cilic had two nice wins over Arnaud Clement and Thomaz Bellucci at Queen's Club on grass before he had to withdraw from the tournament due to an ankle injury. It seemed like a precaution so that Cilic wouldn't further injure the ankle before Wimbledon. Cilic is looking to make it past the round of 16 at Wimbledon for the first time in his career but he has played pretty well in his four years at the All England Lawn Championship. Ivan Ljubicic also played at Queen's Club but he only survived two rounds, as after his first round victory over Ryan Sweeting, he lost to Radek Stepanek in three sets. Ljubicic's worst surface is grass. His career record on grass is under .500 at 22-25. The farthest he has ever gone at Wimbledon is the third round.
Prediction: Marin Cilic over Ivan Ljubicic in 3 sets.

22. Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Fernando Gonzalez: The 22 year old Dolgopolov will only be playing in his second Wimbledon this year. In his first tune-up for Wimbledon, he beat Robin Hasse in the first round before losing to Philipp Kohlschreiber in the second. He lost at Eastbourne in the first round to Carlos Berlocq in two sets the next week. Dolgopolov has only played 9 matches in his young career on grass, so he doesn't have nearly the experience that Gonzo has on the surface. The advantage for Dolgopolov coming into the match is that he has played a lot of good tennis in 2011, while Gonzalez has not been able to get on the court much. After the U.S. Open, Gonzo had to get surgery on his right hip and his right knee. He didn't return until the end of April but has been out since then. Wimbledon will only be Gonzalez's second tournament of the year and first on grass. He will definitely show some rust because of his long layoff. Gonzalez has played pretty well on the surface before, as he made a quarterfinal run back in 2005.
Prediction: Alexandr Dolgopolov over Fernando Gonzalez in 4 sets.

John Isner vs Nicolas Mahut: The rematch of the longest men's tennis match in history is upon us. Last year for three days, John Isner and Nicolas Mahut battled it out on court 18 in the first round for an astonishing 11 hours and 5 minutes until John Isner finally won in the fifth set 70 to 68. To put that in perspective, the longest match in Australian Open history between Rafael Nadal and Fernando Verdasco back in 2009 lasted 5 hours and 14 minutes. The fifth set of John Isner's match against Nicolas Mahut took 8 hours and 11 minutes alone. The fifth set of their match required a record 138 games. Isner also set the record for most aces in a match with 113 and Mahut also had 103 aces, which is the second most by a men in a match. Before the draw for Wimbledon came out this year, John Isner joked with his now close friend Nicolas Mahut, "Watch us play each other." Mahut replied, "No, there's no way. That's not even funny." Although there was a 0.7 percent chance that Isner would play Mahut in the first round for the second year in a row, it has occurred and obviously there was a lot of reaction. Andy Murray said, "Isner vs mahut drawing each other in the first round after last year is the most amazing thing I've seen in tennis! Centre court anyone?!" Andy Roddick said, "Isner/mahut again. Unreal Do they play it on the same court???" Patrick McEnroe said, "ISNER MAHUT rematch in round 1. Since I have'nt been able to get my big brother on twitter yet I will say it-you cannot be serious." Isner said about the rematch, "we're going to enjoy it and laugh at it at the same time." 
Prediction: John Isner over Nicolas Mahut in 5 sets

32. Marcos Baghdatis vs James Blake: Marcos Baghdatis has always loved to play on grass. He made it to the semifinals in 2006, the quarterfinals in 2007, and the round of 16 in 2008. In his tune-up tournament for Wimbledon at the UNICEF Open in the Netherlands, Baghdatis won three matches before losing to Ivan Dodig in the semifinals. The success that Bagdatis has had on grass is the opposite of how Blake has been on the surface. He has lost in the first or second round 6 out of 8 years and in the other two years he only reached the third round. The combination of Blake's lack of success of grass and his recent play makes it a difficult task for him. The last ATP tournament Blake played in was in the beginning of April. He has been recovering from a knee injury that caused him to miss much of the clay court season including the French Open.
Prediction: Marcos Baghdatis over James Blake in 4 sets

Saturday, June 18, 2011

Challengers To Rory McIlroy If He Begins To Fall

Rory McIlroy's first two rounds of golf at Congressional were as close to perfection as you could come by in a major. He hit 32 of 36 greens in regulation and played bogey free golf until the 18th hole in his second round when he hit his second shot into the water and settled for a double bogey. Rory followed up his 6-under par, 65 first round with a 5-under par, 66 second round. McIlroy first two rounds at Congressional were record breaking. McIlroy is the youngest leader of the U.S. Open after two rounds since Walter Hagen led the U.S. Open in 1914 at the age of 21. His total score of 131 is the lowest two-day score in U.S. Open history breaking Rick Barnes's record of 132 in 2009 at Bethpage. Rory's six stroke lead over Y.E. Yang after 36 holes ties a U.S. Open record for the largest lead after two rounds with Tiger Woods when he was leading the field at Pebble Beach by 6 strokes in 2000. However, McIlroy is just 22 years and has only won 2 professional tournaments in his short career. It will take two low rounds from another golfer and McIlroy to come back to the pack in order for other golfers to get into contention for the championship. Crazier things have happened before though. Here is a list of challengers that could cause McIlroy trouble if he begins to get into trouble.

Y.E. Yang: Normally when you are 5-under par at a U.S. Open through two rounds, you are sitting in a very, very good position. This year is not a normal year. With Rory McIlroy's unbelievable first two rounds, Y.E. Yang finds himself six strokes behind the leader in second place. This is not unknown territory for Yang though. In 2009 at the PGA Championship at Hazeltine National Golf Club, Yang was 1-under through two rounds and six strokes behind the leader, Tiger Woods, who was at 7-under. Yang got to within two strokes after the third round and then won the tournament over Woods by three strokes the next day. There are similarities between Hazeltine and Congressional as well. Hazeltine at 7,674 yards was the longest course that a major was ever played at. The 7,574 yards of Congressional make it the third longest course in major history. Yang has come from way behind before to win a major, so he has that experience to provide him confidence that it can be done. The guy has also played some pretty good golf himself. He has been able to minimize his mistakes and scramble to save pars on some big holes. Yang has shown that he has the focus to forgot about Rory and worry about his own game. When asked about playing with McIlroy in the third round, Yang said, "I'm not going to chase anyone. I'm just going to play my game... Anything can happen in golf.  know it's a different level of golf, but anything can happen." If there is one hole that Yang needs to try and salvage a par on, it is the lengthy 11th hole. The 494-yard monster of a par 4 has caused Yang trouble for two days and he has bogeyed the hole twice in his first two rounds. Out of the 11 par 4's, the 11th hole has the highest average score at a 4.45 and there has been a course low 17 birdies on the difficult hole.

Matt Kuchar, Zach Johnson, and Sergio Garcia: These three highly regarded golfers are all sitting in third place at 2-under par and 9 shots behind McIlroy. Although it will be very difficult for these guys to catch McIlroy, if one of them can shoot a crazy number like a 66 or a 67 on Saturday, that would put them in contention to catch McIlroy on Sunday. Kuchar's first round of 72 was all over the place but he showed in the second round that he can play well at this golf course with a 3-under par 68. The sixth ranked player in the world finished tied for 6th in last year's open and began to catch fire in the second round. He will have to continue to play well on the par 5's as he has done in the first two rounds. On the 6 par 5's of the golf course, Kuchar had 5 birdies and a par. Zach Johnson and Sergio Garcia have had two pretty solid rounds. Zach shot a 71 on Thursday, while Sergio shot a 69 and then the two flip-flopped scores on Friday with Zach shooting a 69 and Sergio shooting a 71. Of the three golfers, Zach Johnson is the likeliest to not play a good third or fourth round. He has never played well at the U.S. open with his best finishing coming in 2007 when he finished tied for 45th. Zach's 69 on Friday was his first round under par in his career at the U.S. Open. His average yards per drive of 274.1, ranks 177 out of 187 PGA tour golfers and that doesn't help on the extremely long golf course of Congressional. Sergio has played well at the U.S. Open before and could mount a comeback. He finished in the top ten three years straight from 2001 to 2004 and from 2005 to 2007. Sergio left open the possibility of getting into the hunt when he said, "Overall I think it was a nice round to start with. There's still a long way to go. We haven't done anything yet."

Brandt Snedeker and Robert Garrigus: These two golfers are both ranked outside of the top 45 but are dangerous players if they begin to hit their stride. Snedeker and Garrigus had two solid early rounds, as both of them shot 1-under in both of their first two rounds. Like Kuchar, Johnson, and Garcia, they sit at 2-under par and 9 shots behind Rory. Snedeker knows that he will need some help from McIlroy in order to be in contention for the title. He said, "If he keeps playing the way he’s playing, we’re all playing for second place. That many shot lead going into the weekend, if he keeps playing the way he’s playing, it’s going to be impossible to catch him. You’re trying to shoot the lowest number you can. I personally won’t look at the leaderboard all weekend because there’s no point.” Snedeker has struggled on the par 3, 13th hole. He bogeyed the hole on Thursday and had a double bogey on the hole on Friday. Garrigus has voiced the same opinion as Snedeker. He said, “You can’t be aggressive out here, only in super green-light situations, because there are only a couple of flags you can even shoot at. Even with the greens soft, it’s just stupid to do that.” Garrigus won't be overly aggressive and fire at every pin to try and catch McIlroy. He will "do the same thing" and hope that McIlroy falls back into the pack. Robert Garrigus can really hit the ball off the tee. His average driving distance of 308.5 is the third longest on the tour, which is suited very well for the extremely long golf course of Congressional.

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Pulling For Christopher DeForest At The U.S. Open

On June 22, 2008, my father, my brother, and I were going out at night to play some holes at Mountain Ridge Country Club in West Caldwell, New Jersey. Mountain Ridge was hosting the 52rd annual Ike Championship the next two days, which is a very prestigious amateur golf tournament for players in the Metropolitan golf area. While my dad, my brother, and I were about to play the 13th hole, we saw Christopher DeForest from Illinois University playing a practice round in preparation for the Ike the next day. Chris was a great guy and could really hit the ball. We walked a few holes with him and my dad told him some hints that he should know about course. For the next two days during the Ike, my dad, my brother, and I watched Chris play his 54 holes of the tournament. In the first round, DeForest shot a 2-under par, 69 and was tied for fifth and four strokes behind the leader. He finished tied for sixth, as he shot a 74 in his second and final round of the three round golf tournament. After his final round, Chris threw me his Illinois golf ball that he had been using and I still have that golf ball in my room to this day.

Chris went to Rondout Valley High School in Accord, New York. From 2007 to 2011, he attended Illinois University and played on their golf team. In his freshman year, he set the Illinois record for the lowest single 18-hole score when he carded a 63 in the final round of the D.A. Weibring Invitational. He finished in the top 10 of the Big Ten Championship in all four years of his college career and he was a two-time All-Big Ten first team performer.

DeForest qualified for the U.S. Open after winning a play-off in a sectional qualifier at St. Charles Country Club in St. Charles, Illinois. After finishing his first round at 1-under par, DeForest began to play unbelievably well in the second round. He finished the second round at 7-under par and was 8-under par for the tournament. Since DeForest was tied for second and there were two spots available for the U.S. Open, he played in a three-way playoff. It took Chris two holes in the playoff but he walked away with second place and a chance to play at Congressional Country Club in the 111th U.S. Open.

I had been watching the U.S. Open all day on television when suddenly the telecast showed Chris DeForest playing on the very difficult 10th hole. At the time the young kid from New York was 2-under par after his front nine, as he birdied the par 5, 6th hole and the par 4, 8th hole. DeForest hit a 20 foot birdie putt on the 10th to go to 3-under par and was tied for second at the time in his first ever professional golf tournament. I was so pumped for Chris and I finally had a reason to cheer because Phil Mickelson was giving me nothing to be happy about with his sloppy play. I followed Chris for the rest of his back nine on my computer and it was a very eventful final nine holes. He only had one par on the back nine, which came on the 14th. After his birdie to bring him to 3-under on 10, he had a double bogey on 11. He birdied 12 but came back with a bogey on 13. He bogeyed 15 but rallied with birdies on both 16 and 17. Although Chris double bogeyed the par 4, 18th hole, he had a tremendous first round and finished with an even par of 71. His six birdies on the day were tied for the most in the entire field with Rory McIlroy. 

Any golfers first professional golf tournament is a nerve wracking experience, especially when you see your name towards the top of the leaderboard with guys like Rory McIlroy. It is magnified when your first professional tournament is at the U.S Open. DeForest said about playing with guys like Luke Donald and Rory McIlroy, "They are just people, just like we are, and some of those are better at golf than others. I qualified. I'm in the tournament like they are. I'm going to be as nervous as can be, but I'm going to enjoy myself this week." Considering the fact that Chris's first career professional tournament is at a major and the most important one for an American, the U.S. Open, he had an outstanding first round and should be proud of his performance. I am looking forward to watching Chris and I am hoping that he does well for the duration of the U.S. Open and also in his future PGA tournaments. He has tremendous grace and class and is a great player to watch because of his ability to drive the ball incredible distances. I will definitely be pulling for Chris to have a great final three rounds at the U.S. Open.


After shooting an even par, 71, in his first round of professional golf at the U.S. Open, Chris DeForest is tied for 22nd and is looking to build upon his opening round.

With Rory McIlroy Off To Another Strong Start At A Major, He Will Try To Avoid Another Collapse

In the first round of the British Open at St. Andrews last year, Rory McIlroy shot a 9-under par, 63. His performance was the lowest ever first round score in Open history and tied the St. Andrews course record for the lowest score. He followed his first round performance with a second round 80, the lowest score in the second round of any player to make the cut that year. Although there were bad weather conditions with a lot of wind, McIlroy's second round display was very disappointing especially after he jumped out to such a great start first round. McIlroy said about his second round, "It was just very, very difficult out there. I just let it get away from me a little bit. I could have let the round get away from me, if I'm quite honest." McIlroy finished 8 shots behind the winner Louis Oosthuizen.

At this year's Masters, Rory McIlroy once again jumped out to a great start at a major, as he was tied for the lead at the Masters after the first day with a 7-under par, 65. The 22 year old young star was looking to avoid another meltdown after the first round of a major. McIlroy said after his first round that he didn't expect another collapse at the Masters. He said looking back at his British Open, "At the time, it was very disappointing. But looking back, it was probably very valuable in my progression as a golfer... I have that experience to draw on especially being in a similar position to last year at St. Andrews... I'll be thinking about how I can do things better tomorrow than I did that day in St. Andrews... I feel like I'm better prepared to tee off in the second round of a major with the lead. It's possible that I can go out and shoot another 65, but I know that it's also very likely that I'm not going to do that. So if I do find myself in a bit of trouble, I'm going to have to stick in there, grind it out, and that's something that I feel as if I learned to do at St. Andrews." McIlroy shot a 69 in the second round and a 70 in the third round and had a four shot lead going into the final round of the Masters but he imploded in the fourth round and shot an 8-over par, 80. The four stroke lead that McIlroy squandered was the biggest of a third round leader at a major since Jean Van de Velde lead by 5 strokes at the 1999 Open Championship and lost to in a three-way playoff. His final round was the worst round in history by a golfer leading after the third round of the Masters. Many people compared McIlroy's meltdown to Greg Norman when he entered the Masters with a six stroke lead in 1996 but lost by five strokes to Nick Faldo. For the second time at a major, McIlroy collapsed.

McIlroy said after his final round collapse at the Masters, “You know, I’ll have plenty more chances. I know that." After his first round at Congressional County Club in Bethesda, Maryland, McIlroy has another great chance to walk away with his first win at a major. For the third major out of the last four, McIlroy is leading the pack after the first 18 holes. He birdied 6 holes, 3 on the front nine and 3 on the back nine, and didn't have one bogey on the day. He shot a 6-under par, 65 in the first round of the U.S. Open and leads Charl Schwartzel and Y.E. Yang by three strokes.

McIlroy's challenge for the next three rounds of the tournament will be to not have a repeat of his second round at the British Open or his final round at the Masters. McIlroy seems like he has put his Masters collapse behind him, as he said about his bounce back from that tournament, "I don't know if it says that I've just got a very short memory or, I don't know. I took the experience from Augusta, and I learned a lot from it. But I feel like these good starts in the majors are very much down to my preparation and how I prepare for them. But yeah, I mean, you can't, you're going into the U.S. Open. You can't be thinking about what's happened before, you've got to just be thinking about this week and how best you can prepare and how you can get yourself around the golf course. I think you definitely have to analyze the parts that you want to do better. But I stopped, I really stopped thinking about it a week after. You really try and pick it apart and pick things out that you could have done better, but after you do that and you're happy with everything that you've sort of taken from it, then you've just got to move on. I just took, mostly just from the Sunday just being so tentative and trying to keep ahead of the field instead of playing a free-flowing game like I usually do. That's one of the big differences." 

McIlroy said, "I felt like I handled the second round at Augusta this year a lot better than I handled the second round at St. Andrews last year." McIlroy is hoping that he will handle the fourth round at Congressional a lot better than his fourth round at Augusta. McIlroy definitely has the tools and the ability to win a major but will he be able to move past his prior collapses and hand in four solid rounds at a major?