There is no debating that the champion of college basketball will be crowned on April 2 at the Superdome in New Orleans. The winner of the Big Dance isn't crowned after the first week of the tournament, as the tourney can't be won in the first week, it can only be lost. The odds are that the winner of the NCAA tournament will likely be one of the powerhouse programs of college basketball like a Kentucky, North Carolina, Syracuse, Michigan St., or Kansas.
Although fans love the cinderella stories, the lowest seeded team to ever win the National Championship was Villanova when they shocked top seeded Georgetown as an 8 seed in the 1985 title game. For the past 33 years since 1979, the champion of college basketball has been a top two seed 24 times and a top three seed 29 times. In fact, the tourney winner has only been seeded four or lower 4 times in the last 33 tournaments (Arizona as a 4 seed in 1997, NCST as a 6 seed in 1983, Kansas as a 6 seed in 1988, and Villanova as an 8 seed in 1985).
The tournament almost always goes through the top seeds as well. Only three times in tournament history has a one seed not appeared in the Final Four (1980 with #2 Louisville, #5 Iowa, #6 Purdue, and #8 UCLA, 2006 with #2 UCLA, #3 Florida, #4 LSU, and #11 George Mason, and 2011 with #3 Connecticut, #4 Kentucky, #8 Butler, and #11 VCU) and only once in the history of the tourney has there not been a one or two seed in the Final Four (2011).
Although history has shown that the top seeds dominate the tournament, the cinderella stories and the upsets of the first week make the tourney the best month of sports. The mid-majors make up the aspect of the tournament which people love, which is the underdog story of the small school that is happy to be in the big dance going up against the powerhouse basketball program. The stunning results of the first week of the tournament make up the madness of March. Despite the fact that champions are crowned in the final weekend of the tourney, the fun and the bracket busting of the big dance comes in the first week and that is what makes March great.
Although the ultimate upset of a number 16 seed knocking off a number 1 seed has not yet occurred in the big dance, this year's tourney got the greatest pair of shockers in the history of the tournament.
Before this year, since the tournament expanded to at least 64 teams in 1985, a 15 seed had beaten a 2 seed just 4 times and 15 seeds had a combined record of 4-108 in the tournament. In 1991, Richmond became the first 15 seed to advance to the round of 32 when they beat 2nd seeded Syracuse. Two years later Steve Nash and Santa Clara shocked Arizona 64-61 in an upset for the ages. In 1997, Coppin St. beat South Carolina by 13 points as a 15 seed and Hampton followed them up in 2001 when they beat 2nd seeded Iowa St. after the Cyclones missed a shot at the buzzer, which would have won them the game. In 27 years from 1985 to 2011, only four times has a 15 seed won a game in the tournament.
In this year's tourney after a mediocre first day, everybody's bracket was flipped upset down on Friday. After just 4 victories in 27 years, two 15 seeds pulled off the unthinkable by knocking off two 2 seeds.
Coming into the tournament, Norfolk St. hadn't beaten a tournament team all season and they suffered a 31 point loss to Marquette during their non-conference play. Missouri was an incredible 30-4, finished the season ranked number 3 in the country, won the Big 12 tournament for the 2nd time in the last 18 years since 1994, and received its best seed in the tournament since they were a 1 seed in 1994.
A popular final four pick from the west region, the Tigers shot better than 52 percent from the floor, 44 percent from three, and Marcus Denmon, Phil Pressey, and Michael Dixon all scored at least 20 points. Just purely looking at those numbers, anybody would have expected Mizzou to advance with shooting like that.
However, Norfolk St. was all over the boards, as they outrebounded Missouri 35-23. Every time Missouri scored, the Spartans answered and they were able to stay with the Tigers the entire game. When Norfolk needed to make some stops defensively, they shut the Tigers down. For more than 3 minutes from the 5:09 mark to the 2:02 mark, Mizzou was scoreless and went from leading by 1 to trailing by 6 during that span. Norfolk was able to complete the upset after a Phil Pressey miss at the buzzer and the Spartans "messed up some brackets" as Kyle O'Quinn rightly put it.
Mizzou lost their first round game of the tourney for the first time since they lost to North Carolina in the 2000 NCAA tournament and it was just their third loss in the first round of the tourney since 1993. Norfolk State's victory came in their first ever NCAA tournament appearance.
Although Duke got a 2 seed in the tournament and were led by their terrific three-point shooting and their first-team All-ACC guard Austin Rivers, the Blue Devils greatly overachieved all season under Coach K. If the Dukies were struggling behind the arc, they could easily be upset in the tournament, especially with their third leading scorer Ryan Kelly out with a foot injury. However, most would have expected that upset to come later on in the tournament, as Duke was 26-1 in NCAA first round games under Mike Krzyzewski and they were squaring off against Lehigh, who had never won an NCAA tournament game in school history.
However, Duke had no answer for two-time Patriot League Player of the Year C.J. McCollum, as the junior guard scored 30 points while adding 6 rebounds and dishing out 6 assists. He carried the Mountain Hawks, especially in the second half when he scored 18 points including 7 points in the final 2 minutes and 30 seconds.
Lehigh was also very fortunate to catch Duke on a day where they were severely struggling for three point land. The Blue Devils were 6 of 26 from behind the arc (23.1%), as Seth Curry and Austin Rivers, Duke's two leading scorers, shot a combined 3 of 14 from three. This was a major factoring in Duke being bounced from the tournament, as Lehigh advanced with a shocking 75-70 victory.
Norfolk St. and Lehigh have already made history and they will always be remembered for pulling off two of the biggest upsets in tournament history. Both the Spartans and the Mountain Hawks will be looking to make more history on Sunday.
A 15 seed has never advanced to the regional semifinals. In 1991, Richmond was unable to keep up its momentum after its victory over Syracuse and lost to Temple in the second round 77-64. In 1993, Temple once again knocked off a 15 seed in the round of 32, as they beat Santa Clara 68-57. Coppin St. was the closest to ever advancing to the sweet 16, as Texas narrowly beat them in 1997 by one point. Hampton was unable to keep up the intensity in their second round game, as they were blown out by Georgetown 76-57.
Both Norfolk St. and Lehigh will once again be going into their second round games with no pressure. Nobody expected them to advance this far and nobody is expecting them to move on to the sweet 16, so they are playing with house money.
However, both teams will face challenges in becoming the first ever 15 seed to win two games in the tournament.
If Florida's guards are shooting well from behind the arc, they will be very difficult for Norfolk to beat, as Kenny Boynton, Erving Walker, and Bradley Beal can all stroke the three ball.
Lehigh may have trouble with Xavier's Kenny Frease, as they have a difficult time defending big men. The Mountain Hawks don't have a player tall than 6-9. In the first round, Mason Plumlee exploited Lehigh's lack of size, as he was a perfect 9 of 9 from the field and had 19 points. If the Blue Devils went to Plumlee more often down in the post, the result of the game may have been very different. Mason only took one shot in the final 10 minutes and 30 seconds of the game. Xavier will not forget to give the ball to Frease down low because he will have a mismatch with Lehigh's smaller forwards.
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