North Carolina was the preseason number 1 because John Henson, Harrison Barnes, and Tyler Zeller all returned to school, despite the fact that they were all going to be first round picks and Henson and Barnes were projected lottery picks. The Tar Heels also added highly touted freshman to their already talented squad such as James McAdoo from Norfolk Christian in Virginia and P.J. Hairston from Hargrave Military Academy in North Carolina. McAdoo and Hariston have provided much needed depth to the Tar Heels, who aside from Reggie Bullock, don't have any other solid bench players.
Their have been very high expectations on this Carolina team because of the amount of NBA talent that they have on their squad and the amount of quality players that returned to school this season. They were number 1 in both preseason polls for the first time since the 2008-2009 season when they ended up winning the National Championship over Michigan St. 89-72. Although Carolina have lost two non-conference games to Kentucky on the road in Lexington and to UNLV in the Las Vegas Classic in practically a road game, there is no doubt that they have the capability to make a final four run.
The Tar Heels have some of the best big men in college basketball with the super athletic John Henson and the always reliable Tyler Zeller. John Henson, who is averaging a double-double with 15 points and 10 rebounds per game, is the x-factor for the Tar Heels. Henson has added the lefty hook shot and the 12-foot jumper to his much improved offensive repetoire. The big men for UNC are very lengthy and very athletic. John Henson alone is averaging 3.2 blocks per game and Carolina is number 1 in the NCAA in rebounding as they average about 46.6 per game.
Carolina is also shooting very well from behind the arc. As a team, they are shooting 39.1 percent from three, which is much better than their 33.3 percent from three last season. Leading the Carolina three point attack is Harrison Barnes, who is shooting an astounding 48.7 percent from three, which is incredible considering that he shot 34.4 percent from three last season. Reggie Bullock and P.J. Hairston have also taken pressure off of the preseason All-American, as they are both shooting with a lot of confidence from three.
The Tar Heels have a lot of important pieces that make-up a final four team but every team needs a go-to-guy. While Kendall Marshall is the team's floor general, as he is averaging 10 assists per game, which is the second most in the nation, star player Harrison Barnes is the go-to-guy for the Tar Heels. He made a smart move staying in college as he has really improved his game, and most importantly, his basketball IQ continues to grow. Barnes is quick and a strong driver and has a great elbow jump shot. Barnes has also really improved his three-point shooting. To put in perspective how well Barnes is shooting from three, Jimmer Fredette's best shooting percentage from three was 44 percent in his junior season with BYU, while Barnes is currently shooting just under 49 percent from behind the arc.
Although Duke has one loss and is Duke, they have been flying a little bit under the radar since they won the Maui Invitational in November. They won three huge games in Maui in route to that tournament title, as they knocked off Tennessee 77-67, Michigan 82-75, and then Kansas in a highly contested and very intense final 68-61. However, after they were blown out by Ohio St. in Columbus by 22 points, they have not been getting a lot of love, despite the fact that they are 12-1 and also have wins over Michigan St., who are on a 13 game win streak since they lost to North Carolina and Duke to begin the season, and a talented Washington team.
Austin Rivers is quickly becoming a household favorite for the Cameron Crazies, as he is leading the team in scoring at over 15 points per game. The extremely talented freshman sensation is incredibly quick and is great off of the pick and roll. If Rivers can cut down on his turnovers, he will be in discussion for the ACC Player of the Year.
The Blue Devils also have a host of guys who can knock down jumpers. The Dukies are 7th in the nation in three point shooting percentage, as they are shooting 42.7 percent from behind the arc. Andre Dawkins, Ryan Kelly, Austin Rivers, Seth Curry, and Tyler Thornton are all shooting better than 41 percent from three. 63 percent of Andre Dawkins's field goals are from three and 46 percent of Seth Curry's field goals are from three. Duke live and die by the three point ball. In Duke's big victory over Michigan in the semifinals of Maui, they were 11 of 21 from three, which was 52 percent. In their only loss to Ohio St., the Dukies were horrible from three, as they shot just 20 percent from deep and were 3 of 15 from behind the arc.
The Blue Devils also have a host of guys who can knock down jumpers. The Dukies are 7th in the nation in three point shooting percentage, as they are shooting 42.7 percent from behind the arc. Andre Dawkins, Ryan Kelly, Austin Rivers, Seth Curry, and Tyler Thornton are all shooting better than 41 percent from three. 63 percent of Andre Dawkins's field goals are from three and 46 percent of Seth Curry's field goals are from three. Duke live and die by the three point ball. In Duke's big victory over Michigan in the semifinals of Maui, they were 11 of 21 from three, which was 52 percent. In their only loss to Ohio St., the Dukies were horrible from three, as they shot just 20 percent from deep and were 3 of 15 from behind the arc.
Duke's biggest issue is their ability to rebound with the biggest teams in the country. The Dukies are 103rd in the nation in rebounds, as they average about 37 per game and they average about 11 offensive rebounds per game, which ranks 229th in the country. The Blue Devils have to get their guards to pitch in and help their big men by getting scrappy down in the blocks because only Mason Plumlee is averaging more than 6.7 rebounds per game for the Dukies. In Duke's only loss to Ohio St., the Duke starters were out-rebounded by the physical Buckeye starters 28 to 15. Even in Duke's win over Kansas in the Maui final, the Jayhawk starters out-rebounded the Duke starters 32 to 23, which was a big reason that Kansas had 7 more field goal attempts than Duke, despite having 5 more turnovers.
Don't be surprised if both the Tar Heels and the Blue Devils end up in New Orleans, Louisiana for the Final Four and if one of them will be crowded National Champion at the seasons end. If Carolina reaches the Final Four, it will be their 19th Final Four in school history and their 10th in the last 20 years. If Duke reaches the Final Four, it will be their 16th Final Four in program history and their 12th in the last 26 years since 1986.
Don't be surprised if both the Tar Heels and the Blue Devils end up in New Orleans, Louisiana for the Final Four and if one of them will be crowded National Champion at the seasons end. If Carolina reaches the Final Four, it will be their 19th Final Four in school history and their 10th in the last 20 years. If Duke reaches the Final Four, it will be their 16th Final Four in program history and their 12th in the last 26 years since 1986.
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