Kentucky lost to UCLA. UCLA lost to Monmouth. Monmouth lost to Dayton. Dayton lost to La Salle. La Salle lost to Drexel. Drexel lost to Division II Alaska Anchorage. By the transitive property, Alaska Anchorage is better than Kentucky (yes, I took the time to plot all of that out). Maybe Mikhail Prokhorov and the Nets should consider offering Alaska Anchorage head coach Rusty Osborne a 12-year, 120 million dollar contract instead of John Calipari.
College football has been dominated by a few schools over the past couple decades. Urban Meyer and Nick Saban have won 8 of the last 13 National Championships and continue to be greedier than Meryl Streep at an award show.
However, the college basketball world has become increasingly "flat" as Tom Friedman would like to suggest. Here is a Russell Wilson level cliche: any team can truly beat any other club on a given night in college basketball. Obviously, that is not to say that powerhouse programs like Michigan St., Kansas, North Carolina, and Duke are out of the title picture. Overall, though, the top of college basketball has never been so close to the middle tier of teams in the country, as the middle class of college hoops has improved while the top teams in the country all have significant flaws.
There are anywhere from 10 to 15 teams that could win the National Championship this April in Houston, and for the life of me, I cannot remember a year with this much game-to-game uncertainty. A little less than a month ago, Clemson shot 27.1% from the field in a 23-point loss to Georgia on the road, and yet they just started ACC play with victories against Florida St., Syracuse in OT, Louisville, and Duke. How do you explain Kentucky getting totally outplayed by Ohio St. at the Barclays Center, a Buckeyes team that was so bad earlier on in non-conference play that UT-Arlington came into Columbus and beat them? Everybody was high on Virginia's prospects for a run despite losing Justin Anderson to the NBA after they beat West Virginia, Villanova, and California in consecutive games, but the Cavaliers then lost to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech in ACC play. Teams in the top 25 losing games left and right has now become an accepted occurrence in college basketball.
The top teams in the nation are not strong enough this year to win on their off nights, and now it is just about figuring out when that evening will come for each squad. College basketball is just about as predictable and consistent as Cuba Gooding Junior's acting career because North Carolina can "show you the money" and beat Maryland behind flawless games from Marcus Paige and Brice Johnson, but they can also have a Boat Trip like performance and lose to teams like Northern Iowa.
Looking back at some of the past NCAA tournaments, the highest aggregate seeding for the four National Semifinalists was 26 during the wacky 2011 tourney. Eventual champions UConn were a 3 seed and only received that spot because they won 5 games in 5 days in the Big East Conference Tournament after going a mere 9-9 in conference play. Butler was an 8 seed, the first eight seed to get to the Final Four since North Carolina and Wisconsin in 2000 and the first eight seed to get to a title game since Villanova won it in 1985 against Georgetown. Kentucky was a 4 seed, and cinderella darlings VCU were a 11 seed, at the time joining LSU in 1986 and George Mason in 2006 as the only double digit seeds to make it to the Final Four. I think we could definitely see something wild unfold this March once again, but hopefully at the end of it we will get a better title game than the 53-41 National Championship game stinker we got back in 2011 (the worst title game I have seen since UCLA never got close to Florida back in 2006).
Why does college basketball lack a more typical top-heavy nature this season, a sort of structure that gets Bernie Sanders so upset?
One explanation is that some of the non-perennial hoops powers have not lost a lot to the NBA over the past few years and their players have continued to develop their games as upperclassmen. Whereas Duke had to replace Jahlil Okafor, Justice Winslow, and Tyus Jones, five of the seven players that get double-digit minutes for Butler are juniors and seniors. People sometimes overemphasize the role returning starters and upperclassmen play in the success of a team because if a team struggled with them as freshman or sophomores, they are not going to be better with them as juniors and seniors. However, for the Bulldogs to bring back all-conference caliber players like Roosevelt Jones and Kellen Dunham, it levels out the playing field against some of the bigger programs in the country. Seniors Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker are the reason why Wichita St. has won 7 NCAA Tournament games over the past 3 years, Buddy Hield is a scoring machine for Oklahoma and has dramatically improved as a shooter over his 4 years in Norman, and Kris Dunn came back after having late lottery potential and is now a definite top 5 pick (Providence could get back to its first Final Four since the Rick Pitino-Billy Donovan combination got them there in 1987). All three of those guys are leading experienced and upper-class heavy teams, especially Hield with Oklahoma because they have a very short bench and four of their five starters are juniors or seniors.
At the end of the day, you need talent to win games. The need for experience in college basketball to achieve success is often a media narrative (I feel like Ted Cruz when he was attacking the New York Media at the debate in Charleston last night), but it is an advantage to have a supremely gifted player with more a better feel for the game than a freshman who is still trying to figure it out (look at the difference between Brice Johnson and Skal Labissiere).
Another explanation for the parity in college basketball is that transfer rates are at an all-time high, and players at lower-level schools are now transferring to mid-level and second-tier programs. While Duke, Kentucky, and Kansas continue to go after the nation's top recruits, teams like Oregon, Pittsburgh, and even Louisville, who missed out on some of the top freshmen they were going after and ended up with just one top 30 recruit, have looked to established players from smaller schools to bolster their roster. The influx of transfers into tournament caliber teams, particularly but not limited to power conference schools, have allowed teams like Iowa St. to compete with programs like Kansas. Despite Fred Hoiberg leaving to go to the NBA and pestering Bulls fans by not being able to figure out the best big-man combination between Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson, Pau Gasol, Nikola Mirotic, and Bobby Portis, nearly 14 percent of players still transferred in college basketball in 2014 (not all of them could go to Iowa St. anyway). Damion Lee, who transferred from Drexel, and Trey Lewis, who transferred from Cleveland St., and are now far and away the two best players on a Louisville team that ranks at the top of Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defensive rankings. Lee and Lewis are both really quick and Lee is absolutely fearless, especially when he starts to get into a grove from three.
Some of the non-traditional college basketball powerhouses, like Butler and Wichita St., have been able to offer playing time and larger roles to guys at bigger schools that were never given the opportunity to shine or never quite fit in with their team. Conner Frankamp went from 8 minutes a game as the 9th or 10th guy on Kansas in 2013 to a key part of a good Wichita St. team, and has given the Shockers a 43 percent shooter from three. Tyler Lewis, a former McDonald's All-American and top 50 recruit, never found his place at North Carolina St. and is now a really productive pass-first point guard for Butler. The same kind of story goes for Kuran Iverson, who left Memphis after two years to play for Rhode Island and have a bigger role. Dylan Ennis, who averaged nearly 10 points a game for a 33 win Villanova team last year, left the school to go to Oregon to handle more of the basketball with highly touted freshman Jalen Brunson coming to play for the Wildcats in the backcourt with Ryan Arcidiacono. Unlike in the past, where many players would sit and wait for their opportunity at a big-time school because they thought they could only be recognized by NBA scouts from a few programs, players know that getting onto the floor is the most important thing for their future. As Robert Sarver would say, millennials want instant gratification or else they move on (I say that half-jokingly).
Finally, the quality of freshman that came into college basketball this season pales in comparison to the past, hurting the top programs that have continually replenished their talent each year through strong freshmen classes. LSU's Ben Simmons (a player so good he gets shout outs from Barack Obama), Duke's Brandon Ingram (his wingspan is as long as Giannis and Kawhi), Henry Ellenson from Marquette, Diamond Stone of Maryland (had a 39 point, 12 rebound game in his first ever Big Ten contest against Penn St.), Caleb Swanigan from Purdue (forms a monster front line duo with A.J. Hammons), Arizona's Allonzo Trier (unfortunately is out with a broken finger), Dedric Lawson of Memphis, and Florida State's duo of Dwayne Bacon and Malik Beasley have certainly all stood out for their respective teams. However, equally as disappointing have been Kentucky's Skal Labissiere and Isaiah Briscoe (one NBA scout way too harshly eviscerated Labissiere recently), Cheick Diallo of Kansas, Chase Jeter of Duke (Coach K has no trust in him at all), Justin Simon of Arizona, and Antonio Blakeney of LSU.
Moreover, for whatever reason, it seems as though the destinations of the top recruits were more spread out in 2015. Ben Simmons went to LSU, Cuonzo Martin and California got two top ten recruits with Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb, Henry Ellenson, a Wisconsin kid, stayed home and went to Marquette, and Ben Howland and his slow pace, let me control my team's entire motion offense landed Malik Newman at Mississippi State. In 2013, all but one of the top 12 recruits went to Kansas (Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid), Duke (Jabari Parker), Kentucky (Julius Randle, Andrew Harrison, Dakari Johnson, James Young, and Aaron Harrison), Arizona (Aaron Gordon), or Florida (Kasey Hill and the biggest college basketball disappointment in a long time with Chris Walker) according to ESPN. The next year, half of the top 18 recruits on ESPN went to either Duke, North Carolina, or Kentucky (Okafor, Jones, and Winslow went to Duke, Justin Jackson, Theo Pinson, and Joel Berry landed at North Carolina, and Trey Lyles, Karl Towns Jr., and Devin Booker went to Kentucky). This year, of the top twenty recruits according to ESPN, seven of them went to schools that did not even make the NCAA Tournament in 2014, creating a diversification of talent in college hoops.
Images
Friday, January 15, 2016
Thursday, December 31, 2015
Telling It All Podcast - 2015 Sports Year In Review
Topics Include: Who Won The Year In Sports In 2015 (0:30)? Who Were The Biggest Disappointments (4:00)? What Are You Looking Forward To In 2016 (6:00)?
Podcast Notes:
American Pharoah is the only horse to have won the Triple Crown and the Breeders' Cup Classic. Sunday Silence is the only other horse to have won three of the four grand slam of racing in the same year (won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Breeders' Cup Classic in 1989).
Jordan Spieth (-18 at Masters, -5 at U.S. Open, -14 at British Open, -17 at PGA) finished the four majors at a combined 54 under, surpassing the record set by Tiger Woods in 2000 at 53 under (-4 at Masters, -12 at U.S. Open, -19 at British Open, -18 at PGA).
Pablo Sandoval and Rick Porcello are under contract for 4 more years, and Hanley Ramirez has a 22-million dollar vesting option for 2019 if he accumulates 1,050 plate appearances between 2017 and 2018. Tear, tear for Red Sox fans.
SoundCloud Podcast Homepage: https://soundcloud.com/ctellallsports
Monday, July 20, 2015
Best Early Season Non-Conference College Football Games
Week 1
Michigan at Utah at 8:30 on Fox Sports 1 on Thursday, September 3rd:
He is back everybody! Jim Harbaugh is back in college football!
I say this in the nicest way possible, but Jim Harbaugh is a bit of a lunatic. His intensity level in all facets of life reaches that of only Tom Thibodeau. There is no denying that his personality is a little eccentric and unconventional, even for somebody that coaches sports for a living. Everybody knows that Harbaugh's insistence on going about things a certain way on the field can wear his players out, not to mention how his temperament and unrelenting manner off the field can get on the nerves of the administrators and executives around him (just ask 49ers CEO Jed York and GM Trent Baalke about that).
However, Harbaugh has won everywhere he has coached, and he dramatically improves the makeup and composition of his teams by bringing in a sense of toughness and demanding excellence through intra-squad competition.
The Wolverines have undergone an identity crisis since the end of Lloyd Carr's 13-year run in Ann Arbor. The 3-3-5 defense under Rich Rodriguez was a complete mess during his three-year tenure, and the Wolverines won fewer games then the previous season in each of Brady Hoke's successive seasons at the school.
Harbaugh is a "Michigan man" as they love to hear in Ann Arbor. He played under the great Bo Schembechler from 1983 to 1986 and lead Michigan to the Fiesta Bowl and a #2 ranking in 1985 and to the Rose Bowl in 1986, a year in which he was the Big Ten Player of the Year and finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting behind Miami quarterback Vinny Testaverde and Temple running back Paul Palmer. His dad, Jack Harbaugh, was also the defensive backs coach at Michigan from 1973 to 1979. If Jim Harbaugh wins big at Michigan, they will gladly put up with his peculiar and intense character.
The first year for Harbaugh, though, could be his most difficult one at the school. Remember that Bob Stoops was 7-5 in his first year at powerhouse Oklahoma in 1999 (one of his only four non double-digit winning seasons in 16 years at the school), Mike Gundy was 4-7 in his opening season at Oklahoma St. in 2005 and 1-7 in conference play (from 2008 to 2011, Oklahoma St. was one of only six teams along with Alabama, TCU, Oregon, Boise St., and Virginia Tech to finish in the top 25 of the coaches poll all four years), and Nick Saban was 7-6 and 4-4 in the SEC in his first year at Alabama in 2007 (since then his record is 84-11 at the school with 3 National Championships).
I suspect Harbaugh to face an initial struggle at Michigan as he attempts to instill a new identity and re-shape the roster to fit his liking. Michigan has a question mark at the quarterback position heading into 2015, and Brady Hoke struggled to recruit the type of top-level talent that the school had become accustomed to grabbing in the past (Hoke had the #31 recruiting class in 2014 and Jim Harbaugh's late arrival in Ann Arbor pushed Michigan's 2015 class down to #50 according to Rivals).
I remember going to the Michigan-Utah game back in 2008 when Michigan put up a valiant fight in the Big House but lost to the then-Mountain West Utes 25-23, a team with Paul Kruger and Sean Smith that went on to finish 13-0 and beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl 31-17. I see a similarly closely tested affair this year from Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City.
The Wolverines quarterback battle is likely going to come down to lefty Shane Morris and Iowa graduate transfer Jake Rudock, who threw for 311 yards and 2 touchdowns last season in a game against Wisconsin for the Hawkeyes. Whoever starts for Michigan is going to have to deal with a resilient Utah front seven, which includes promising young defensive linemen Hunter Dimick and Lowell Lotulelei (the younger brother of Star Lotulelei). In fact, Utah led all of college football last season with a combined 55 team sacks, including a 10 sack game on Brett Hundley in a 30-28 upset victory over UCLA. Although the Utes will not be able to make up for the loss of Nate Orchard and his nation leading 19 sacks with one player, they bring back almost everyone else on defense.
Utah is lucky to bring back consistent senior quarterback Travis Wilson, dynamic running back Devontae Booker, who was second in the Pac-12 with 1,512 rushing yards in 2014, and four of their five starting offensive lineman from last season. As great as a grab it was for Michigan to bring Harbaugh back to Ann Arbor, I like the Utes to hang him a loss in his first game at the school.
Texas at Notre Dame at 7:30 on NBC on Saturday, September 5th:
Amongst FBS programs, Notre Dame has the second most wins in college football history with 882, and Texas is third in that category with 881. The Fighting Irish have the best winning percentage amongst any NCAA football program at .732 while the Longhorns are tied with Nebraska for sixth at an impressive .712. Notre Dame's 7 Heisman Trophy winners (Angelo Bertelli, Lohnny Lujack, Leon Hart, Johnny Lattner, Paul Hornung, John Huarte, Tim Brown) is tied with Ohio St. for the most in college football and Texas is one of only ten schools with multiple winners of the award over the last 40 years along with Ohio St., Michigan, Florida, Florida St., Auburn, Oklahoma, USC, Nebraska, and Miami (running backs Earl Campbell in 1977 and Ricky Williams in 1998 won it for UT). Notre Dame's 22 total championships are the most in the FBS and Texas's 9 are in the top 10. The Fighting Irish have had 33 unanimous All-Americans, the most of any program, while the Longhorns are not far behind with 22 such selections. Notre Dame has had 485 players selected in the NFL draft including 63 in the first round, which are second and third most in the country respectively. Under head coaches Darrell Royal and Fred Akers from 1957 to 1986, the Longhorns finished in the top 5 of the AP poll an 12 times, playing in 13 Cotton Bowls over that stretch. Notre Dame is so big that they do not even need to be apart of a conference while ESPN agreed to a 20 year, 300 million dollar deal with the University of Texas to set up the Longhorn Network, largely centered around UT football.
History, tradition, legacies, huge fan bases, and immense financial backing from supporters will be very present when the schools square off in South Bend on September 5th.
Some of the particulars of the game have to be overlooked if you want to be interested in it. Charlie Strong dismissed anybody that talked at Texas in his first year at the program, as 9 players left the team for legal or disciplinary reasons. Strong wants to create a new culture of accountability with the Longhorns, but it is going to take time for that to happen.
Texas's 6-7 season last year was just the third time in over 20 years that they finished below .500, and Tyrone Swoopes struggled to ever get the offense going once he took over for David Ash at QB (Ash's career came to an end during the season because of multiple concussions). Strong has the management capabilities and heavy resources at UT to build a roster full of disciplined players like he did at Louisville, but it is not there yet.
The ghost of Mack Brown's recruiting past still haunts Texas. He tried to recruit eventual Heisman Trophy winners Robert Griffin III and Johnny Manziel at defensive back. Brown did not pursue future number one pick Andrew Luck, who played high school football in Houston. He did not offer a scholarship to another eventual Heisman Trophy winner James Winston, who said, "If I'd gotten the offer from Texas, I'd be going to Texas right now. But I never got offered." Texas's problems run deeper than the QB position, but they have not been able to find a good signal-caller since Colt McCoy left.
Meanwhile, Brian Kelly ran Everett Golson out of town just 3 years after the quarterback led the Fighting Irish to the BCS National Championship Game against Alabama. For as magical as that run was with Tyler Eifert, Zack Martin, Louis Nix, Stephon Tuitt, Manti Te'o, and Manti Te'o's fake girlfriend, that was the only time that the Fighting Irish have finished in the top 10 of the coaches poll in more than 20 years. To make things even worse, Notre Dame is still paying Charlie Weis more then Brian Kelly (the Fighting Irish initially paid Weis $6.6 million back in 2009 when he was fired and they have given him $2.1 million for four straight years as a part of their separation agreement. How did Weis get such a sweet deal you may be wondering? Back in 2005, Notre Dame started the season surprisingly well in Weis's first year, including a victory over #3 Michigan in Ann Arbor. As NFL rumors began to swirl around the former Jets and Patriots offensive coordinator, ND freaked out and gave him a ridiculous 10-year deal after 7 games in charge).
Obviously, this is not your father's Texas or your father's Notre Dame, but this game still means something between the two powerhouse college football programs.
Despite having a very tough schedule with games against Georgia Tech, Clemson, USC, and Stanford, Notre Dame has enough talent to be a sleeper top 10 team by the end of the season, especially if they can start off the season with a momentum building win over the Longhorns. I really like the Fighting Irish defense, which should be more reminiscent of the stout 2012 unit than the defense from last season that was 84th in the nation in points allowed. ND is getting a lot of players back on defense from injury and suspension, including cornerback KeiVarae Rusell and defensive end Ishaq Williams from academic suspension and Jarrett Grace from the knee injury that he suffered in 2013 against Arizona State. They return 19 starters from last season's team, and nearly their entire defense.
Texas has just 5 returning defensive starters (only Kansas is bringing back less players on that side of the ball in the Big 12). As you would expect, the Longhorns have plenty of young talent and speed, especially after bringing back running back Jonathan Gray and defensive back Duke Thomas. However, they still have a lot of holes to fill on both sides of the ball and a question mark at the quarterback position with a battle in camp ensuing between Tyrone Swoopes and redshirt freshman Jerrod Heard. This could be an intriguing game between two pillars of the sport.
Wisconsin vs Alabama at 8:00 on ABC on Saturday, September 5th in the Cowboys Classic from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas:
Alabama lost a lot of key players from their 2014 college football playoff team. Amari Cooper, a Fred Biletnikoff Award winner for best college football wide receiver and a Heisman Trophy Finalist after setting school records in catches with 124, receiving yards with 1,727, and touchdowns with 16, was selected 4th overall in the NFL Draft. Landon Collins, one of only three unanimous All-American defensive backs and who led the team in tackles and was tied for the team lead in interceptions, was picked by the Giants in the 2nd round. T. J. Yeldon was also selected in the 2nd round, a running back that rushed for more than 970 yards and 11 touchdowns in all three of his seasons in Tuscaloosa, which is something that Kenneth Darby, Glen Coffee, Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, and Eddie Lacy never did at the school. Blake Sims, who broke the school's single-season passing record, is gone. Alabama is also not returning three of its starting offensive linemen from last year, making it one of only three teams in the SEC along with Florida and Mississippi St. to have only one or two returning offensive linemen.
With all that being said, Alabama is still the SEC favorite to represent the conference in the College Football Playoff, and their season will be considered a failure if they do not make it back there. Every school in the country loses pieces in any given season due to the NFL Draft, transfers, and graduates (just look at Bama's week one opponent, Wisconsin, who is losing Doak Walker Award Winner and Heisman Finalist running back Melvin Gordon and consensus first team All-Big Ten offensive tackle Rob Havenstein).
However, Alabama may be the only school in the country that can recover year after year from all of its departures because of the boatload of five and four star players that the team is able to recruit every year. According to Rivals, Alabama had the number one recruiting class in 2012, 2013, and 2014, and the Tide were second in the team rankings in 2015 behind USC. While landing top recruits does not guarantee success by any means - Georgia had the #7 class in 2008, #6 in 2009, #15 in 2010, #5 in 2011, #12 in 2012, #12 again in 2013, #7 in 2014, and the #6 class in 2015 and has not made a BCS Bowl game or College Football Playoff over that stretch - it does make life a lot easier.
We all know that Wisconsin loves to run the football. Even though I think that new head coach Paul Chryst will bring a little more balance to a Wisconsin offense that could barely move the football if it was not in Gordon's hands last season, the Badgers are still going to try to pound the rock.
The problem with that strategy in against the Crimson Tide is that Alabama's front seven is downright scary. It all starts right up the middle with A'Shawn Robinson and his teammate Jarran Reed, two massive defensive tackles for the Tide that make up the best interior tandem in college football. Robinson is going to be a first round pick if he comes out after his junior season, especially since he is versatile enough to play nose tackle or defensive end in Bama's usual three down linemen sets. If Wisconsin's offensive line can somehow push Robinson out of the way, Reuben Foster and Reggie Ragland will be there to clean anything up in the Tide's linebacker unit. Ragland had the second most tackles on the team last season, and he is Alabama's most athletic player in their stout front seven, as he showed with his jumping interception against Kenny Hill and Texas A&M.
The problem for Wisconsin is that the Alabama front seven is not going to surrender the amount of rushing yards that the Badgers need to make up for their sub-par passing game. Joel Stave is a serviceable quarterback, but he is not going to win a team any games on his own, which is a problem because, as Ohio St. showed in the College Football playoff last year, the Alabama secondary is susceptible to big plays down the field. To make matters worse, the Badgers are losing both guards and an offensive tackle from the front that helped Gordon rush for 2,587 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2014.
Unless Wisconsin pulls a quickie on Nick Saban and Alabama and substitute in the Cowboys terrific offensive line in "Jerry World," I fully expect a Crimson Tide victory this time around in a Big Ten-SEC game.
Ohio St. at Virginia Tech at 8:00 on ESPN on Monday, September 7th:
Ohio St. was the best team in college football last season, and I'm not sure if you have heard about this, but they won the National Championship with their 3rd string quarterback. To me, that statement rings a little hollow at this point because when you have three of the top seven or eight quarterbacks in college football, a third-stringer is almost in a reversible position with your starter. As John Calipari might say, "Ohio St. did not have subs. They had reinforcements."
The Buckeyes only loss last season came not at Michigan St., not against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Title game in Cardinal Jones's first start, and not in the inaugural College Football Playoff, but at home to Virginia Tech. Yes, a Virginia Tech team that finished the season 7-6 with a home loss to East Carolina and who tied for last in their ACC division at 3-5 with a three game conference losing streak to Pitt, Miami, and Boston College. Obviously, context matters in sports, and J. T. Barrett was really bad against the Hokies in the second start of his career with two second half interceptions, including a complete miscommunication with his wide out when he was picked off by Donovan Riley to seal Virginia Tech's victory. The Hokies return a lot on defense in 2015, most noticeably first-team all ACC cornerback Kendall Fuller, but whoever does start for Ohio St. is going to be in complete control of the offense this time around.
So, J. T. Barrett, Cardale Jones, or Braxton Miller? That is the question on everybody's mind in the college football world right now, and here is where I stand on the QB battle.
Braxton Miller is a distant third option for the Buckeyes, and I do not think he is in the competition to start on opening night in Blacksburg. That is very odd to say about a quarterback that lead his team to an undefeated 12-0 season when they were ineligible for postseason play in 2012, passed for over 2,000 yards and rushed for over 1,000 yards in consecutive seasons (amongst power 5 conference quarterbacks, only Vince Young, Brad Smith, Cam Newton, Collin Klein and Johnny Manziel have done that a season since 2004), and is a two-time Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year (amongst the power 5 conferences, only USC running back Charles White, Stanford QB John Elway, Washington St. running back Rueben Mayes, USC quarterback Matt Leinart, USC running back Reggie Bush, Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, Texas running back Ricky Williams, Oklahoma quarterback Jason White, and Arkansas running back Darren McFadden have done that).
Miller has had two surgeries on his right throwing shoulder since last February, and he has barely thrown a football since he re-injured his shoulder in August of 2014. He even missed out on the Buckeye's recent spring practices because he had still not fully recovered from the operations. Although some successful NFL quarterbacks have come back from labrum repairs like Drew Bress and Blaine Gabbert (ok, so just Bress), it is a difficult for a quarterback to come back from two such surgeries. Even when healthy, Barrett and Jones offer more to Ohio State's offense, which means that Miller is likely going to be one of the two odd men out in Columbus.
As for J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones, either one of them could end up being under center when the Buckeyes take on the Hokies in week one, but I lean towards Jones. As he showed in the College Football Playoff against Alabama and Oregon, Cardale's arm is massive and he can vertically stretch a defense so much because of his ability to get the ball down the field to receivers like Michael Thomas and Corey Smith. Barrett is quicker than Jones, and a better dual-threat option to run the option and make the right read with Ezekiel Elliott. He has also been getting rave reviews out of the Elite 11 camp, where he seems to have fully recovered from the broken ankle he suffered against Michigan.
However, Cardale is so big that he can make up for those lost rushing yards when he scrambles and runs over guys as he gets a full head of speed with his 250 pound frame. Like when he destroyed Oregon defensive lineman Alex Balducci, or when he did trucked Alabama defensive back Landon Collins. Plus, Cradle Jones always keeps things very interesting on twitter. I'm keeping this question open and reserving my complete and final judgement on the OSU QB battle until I see how things shake out.
What I do know is that no matter who Urban Meyer decides to start on September 7th, Ezekiel Elliott is going to be running out there, Joey Bosa is going to be a menace against Va Tech's offensive line, Joshua Perry is going to be chasing guys down, and the Buckeyes should take it to the Hokies.
Week 2
Oklahoma at Tennessee at 6:00 on ESPN on Saturday, September 12th:
Is this finally the year Tennessee jumps back into the national picture?
It has been such a long time for Volunteer fans since the glory days of Phillip Fulmer in the 1990s and early 2000s, but I think that Tennessee is on the cusp of returning to national relevancy. Tennessee had 8 double-digit winning seasons from 1993 to 2004 and won the first BCS National Championship in 1998 despite losing Peyton Manning to the NFL draft. In the last 7 years, the Vols have had 4 different head coaches and an overall record of 40-47 without a season of more than 7 wins, by far their worst stretch as a football program since all the way back from 1958 to 1964.
Butch Jones has had two years to instill a new culture of responsibility in the program, and he brought in the #5 recruiting class in both 2014 and 2015, including more five star recruits then any school but Alabama and Florida State according to Rivals. The third year is typically the big season for a coach at a new school (just ask former Tennessee coach Derek Dooley about the need to produce some results in that year).
The Vols have as much talent on their roster as they have had in nearly a decade. Tennessee are bringing back 2014 second team All-SEC defensive end Derek Barnett, second team All-SEC outside linebacker Curt Maggitt, and one of the best defensive back pairings in the SEC along with Alabama's duo of Eddie Jackson and Cyrus Jones with their own tandem of Cameron Sutton and LaDarrell McNeil. Tennessee football may not be what it once was, but a win over Oklahoma would bring them closer to returning to some of those great "Rocky Top" glory days.
Frankly, you could also ask: is this the year that Oklahoma finally lives up to expectations and makes a run at the National Championship?
The Sooners were the biggest disappointment in college football last season (South Carolina was a close second). They finished 8-5 with a 40-6 bowl game loss to Clemson despite returning quarterback Trevor Knight, recruiting star running back Samaje Perine, and bringing back 9 players on defense from a team that went 11-2 with a win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl the previous year.
"Big Game Bob Stoops" has disappeared over the last several years in Norman, as the Sooners have failed to get over the hump and get into the title conversation for more than 5 years. Losses like their 2010 defeat to unranked Texas A&M when they began the season 7-1, and their failure to beat unranked Texas Tech at home in 2011 despite having won 39 straight games in Norman up to that point and being the #1 team in the country with wins over #5 Florida St. in Tallahassee and #11 Texas in the Red River Rivalry, have epitomized Oklahoma's underachievement in recent years. For a school that has won 10 or more games in 4 of the last 6 seasons, the Sooners have left much to be desired because of their massive letdowns against lesser opponents and disappointments in big games (like the 2013 defeat to #5 Baylor in Waco 41-12).
Of all the non-conference college football games this season, the contest between Oklahoma and Tennessee from Neyland Stadium may have the largest implications on how the winner and loser perform for the rest of the season.
If Oklahoma can get by the Volunteers on the road in Knoxville, things part like the red sea for them. Following that game and a relatively easy non-conference game against Tulsa, the Sooners play West Virginia at home, Texas in the Red River Rivalry in Dallas, at Kansas St., home to Texas Tech, at Kansas, and then home against Iowa State. While I generally dislike pre-season conference predictions, they do provide a general outline of the talent level of certain teams, and Oklahoma plays its first 6 conference games against the team's projected to finish 5-10 in the Big 12 standings. The Sooners are not a top 5 level college football team, especially after losing two all Big 12 first-team offensive lineman with Daryl Williams and Tyrus Thompson graduating. It is conceivable, though, that with a win over Tennessee, the Sooners could go into their final stretch against the superior Big 12 teams - at Baylor, home to TCU, and at Oklahoma St. in Bedlam - undefeated because of how their schedule sets up.
Tennessee has the opposite scenario as Oklahoma. After playing the Sooners and then having an easy game against FCS school Western Carolina, the Volunteers go to Florida in the Swamp, play at home against an improved Arkansas team, host SEC East favorite Georgia, and then play Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The Vols have a much softer end to the season with games against Kentucky, North Texas, and Vanderbilt. A loss to Oklahoma would steal the early season thunder from Tennessee, especially before such a brutal stretch of conference game. For a team that expects to be a contender in the SEC East, Tennessee has to avoid beginning the season 3-4 because that would certainly deflate their sails.
The question looming over this game is who Oklahoma starts at quarterback between incumbent starter Trevor Knight and Texas Tech transfer Baker Mayfield. Knight was the darling of college football heading into last season, but he threw at least one interception in 8 of his 10 starts. Knight's poor decision-making, and his failure to look off defenders from the pocket, were evident in the Sooners crushing loss to eventual co-Big 12 champion TCU. Knight threw a pick 6 when it was 31-31 in the 4th quarter and then tossed another interception with nearly 6 minutes left in TCU territory when the Sooners were down 37-33 (jump to 2:31).
Mayfield, the first ever true freshman walk-on to start a season for a power five conference team, sat out all of last season, but he can sling the ball around the field. He is well-suited for Oklahoma's new air raid offense and its emphasis on quick pace, no huddle play calling and variety of screen passes and trips wide receiver sets.
With everything pointing towards Mayfield possibly winning the job, why did Stoops select Knight to talk at Big 12 media day? And since the Sooners start off in week 1 against a heavily under-matched Akron team, I would not be surprised if Stoops plays both Knight and Mayfield to give the Vols defense some things to think about heading into their week 2 clash. Tennessee may not be what it once was, and Oklahoma may have been a disappointment over the last few years, but this is the most underrated game of the early college football season.
Oregon at Michigan St. at 8:00 on ABC on Saturday, September 12th:
There are a ton of compelling early season non-conference college football games this year, especially since the commissioners of all the power 5 conferences have insisted on their teams scheduling marquee games before conference play begins (the SEC has made it mandatory to play once game against another power 5 school in non-conference play). The increased emphasis on difficult non-conference games has been heightened in the College Football Playoff era, as one of the major knocks against Baylor last year was their cupcake of a non-conference slate against SMU, FCS school Northwestern St., and Buffalo.
Historic college football programs like Texas and Notre Dame are squaring off in week 1 for the first time since 1996, and traditional powers Nebraska and Miami(FL) are playing again this year in week 3. A trio of SEC teams are playing high-profile week 1 neutral site games with Alabama tangling with Wisconsin, Auburn taking on Louisville, and Texas A&M battling with Arizona State. In one of the hardest non-conference schedules, Michigan is playing two teams from the Pac-12 (at Utah in week 1 and home against Oregon St. in week 2) and the Wolverines also play a BYU team that was 4-0 in 2014 with wins at UConn and Texas before star quarterback Taysom Hill missed the rest of the season after suffering a leg injury against Utah State. Michigan's schedule pales in comparison to the Virginia Cavaliers, who are traveling to UCLA in week 1, then play Notre Dame at home in week 2, and also take on Boise St. in week 4.
There may be some match-ups that are higher scoring or between programs with a more storied past, but of all the games in the early season, the Oregon-Michigan St. game in East Lansing in week 2 will have the largest championship implications.
Things are going to be significantly different this time around between the Ducks and the Spartans due to the departure of Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Marcus Mariota, who lit the Michgian St. defense up last season in their top 10 battle in Eugene for 318 yards and 3 touchdowns in a come from behind 46-27 victory (people forget that Michigan St. led that game 27-18 with under 5 minutes left in the third quarter). You can still be sure that the Oregon and Michigan St. coaching staffs are going to be reviewing a lot of game tape from their encounter last season to understand the opposing team's offensive and defensive tendencies.
The Spartans are going to have figure out a way to slow down Oregon's offensive tempo. Their defensive front seven last season, with the likes of Shilique Calhoun and Taiwan Jones, was unable to stay up to pace with the Duck's offense or make substitutes quickly enough to bring on fresh bodies. The Spartans defensive coordinator last season, Pat Narduzzi, left to take the vacant head coaching job at Pittsburgh, so the newly minted leaders of Michigan State's defensive unit, Harlon Barnett and Mike Tressel, are going to have to figure out a way to contain the Duck's offense.
The Spartans will need to be better conditioned on defense than they were last season because as the game got late into the third quarter and into the final period, Oregon's offensive line began to overpower a tired and beat up Michigan St. defense. Oregon's lead running back Royce Freeman had just 21 yards in the first three quarters of the game. He exploded for 68 yards and 2 touchdowns in the fourth quarter after huge gaps began to come available as Michigan State's tired front was unable to get off blocks and plug the holes. On Freeman's 38 yard touchdown scamper when the Ducks were only up 32-27, Michigan State's linebacking core over-pursued the football, leaving a counterattack lane for the Oregon freshman back to run through behind his offensive line. The Spartans will have to maintain better gap discipline this time around against the Ducks.
Michigan State has enough athletes and experience coming back on defense to do a better job against Oregon's offense this time around. Shilique Calhoun, a two-time Big Ten all first-team defensive end, is back for his senior season at Michigan St. despite being a first round draft talent. Calhoun had 12.5 tackles for loss in 2014, and Joey Bosa is the only returning player in the Big Ten that had more sacks then him last season. One of the reasons that the dominant defensive end decided to return to Michigan St. was that defensive tackles Malik McDowell and Lawrence Thomas, two interior linemen with solid hands and that can get leverage off the line, are coming back to school. They allow Calhoun to exploit one-on-one matchup that come his way and they also clog up the interior, so that he can get a jump off the edge to rush the passer in their cover 4 defense.
Michigan St. likes to play a fair share of press coverage with their corners, and I do not think that will change this season if they stay with their 4-3 over defensive scheme. Their defense will put a lot of pressure on defensive backs Arjen Colquhoun, Jermaine Edmondson, Darian Hicks, and Demetrious Cox to stay with Oregon's loaded group of wide receivers, which includes Devon Allen, Keanon Lowe, Dwayne Stanford, Charles Nelson, and Darren Carrington. Michigan State has had plenty of good cornerbacks in the past that could play that kind of tight coverage on skilled wideouts with the likes of Chris Rucker, Johnny Adams, Mitchell White, Darqueze Dennard, and Trae Waynes. However, with a more inexperienced group of corners this season, Michigan State's safety group, featuring RJ Williamson, will have to be all over the field in their usual 2 or 3 deep zone coverages. The Spartans defense will have a very large crowd on their side this time around in East Lansing, making it more difficult for the Ducks to communicate their play calls at the pace they would ideally like.
In terms of Oregon's offense, most of their question marks without Mariota will not be answered until they come up against Sparty in week 2. Who is going to be behind center for the Ducks?
I feel like there are more QB competitions this year in college football then any year in the past, and Oregon coach Mark Helfrich will have to decide between last year's backup Jeff Lockie, who attempted just 28 passes all season long, and Vernon Adams, who played three seasons at the FCS level with Eastern Washington before transferring to Eugene and being eligible to play immediately.
I personally see Adams taking the starting job over Lockie. Adams, who was the runner-up to John Robertson of Villanova last season for the Walter Payton Award for the best FCS player, is not as quick as Mariota but he can definitely run the zone read when Oregon needs him to. While at Eastern Washington he ran an up tempo offense that used a lot of the same language as the one he is heading to in Eugene. Although he may not be the most prolific math student in the world and is an unknown to fans despite knocking off Oregon St. 49-46 in 2013 (he threw for 411 yards and 4 touchdowns and ran for 107 yards and 2 touchdowns in that wild game in Corvallis), Adams could be the most impactful transfer in college football in 2015.
Since so much of the game last season came down to Oregon's offense against Michigan State's defense, I have ignored Michigan State's offense against Oregon's defense. However, one of the ways that the Spartans can slow down the Ducks attack is by going up and down the field with their offense and pounding the football on the ground behind an offensive line with three returning starters. Despite losing Jeremy Langford to the NFL, Michigan State's running backs should be able to follow the lanes opened up to them by 2014 first team Big-Ten center Jack Allen and second team Big-Ten offensive tackle Jack Conklin. The Spartans will need a little better game this time around from Connor Cook to help them exact revenge on Oregon, which I think they will be able to do in East Lansing.
Boise St. at BYU at 10:15 on ESPN2 on Saturday, September 12th:
Every year in college football, there is always at least one player that is must-see television because of his explosiveness and ability to reel off big plays at any moment. There is invariably one player that a team desperately rallies on to be their do-it-all play maker, and to make everybody around them seem so much better. They may have some slight back pain after a game from carrying their teammates to such a great extent (just ask James Harden how it feels to do that for an entire regular season due to so many Rockets injuries).
In 2007, running back Kevin Smith did almost everything for the UCF offense, rushing for 2,567 yards and 29 touchdowns, including having 9 games with more than 170 yards on the ground. In 2011, Kevin Sumlin put the ball in Case Keenum's hands and let him sling it around anywhere he wanted, as Kennum threw for an astonishing 5,631 yards and 48 touchdowns. In 2012, Jordan Lynch was that guy for Northern Illinois, throwing for 3,138 yards and 25 touchdowns and rushing for 1,815 yards and 19 touchdowns to push the Huskies all the way into the Orange Bowl against Florida State.
The do-it-all guy to watch this season in college football is BYU quarterback Taysom Hill, who is a definite dark horse Heisman Trophy candidate. Hill is part of a long line of exciting BYU quarterbacks including Gary Sheide, Gifford Neilsen, Marc Wilson, 1985 Bears Super Bowl winning QB Jim McMahon, 1983 Heisman Trophy runner-up and 1992 and 1994 NFL MVP Steve Young, 1984 National Championship winning QB Robbie Bosco, former Sammy Baugh Award winner and current USC coach Steve Sarkisian, and 1990 Heisman winner Ty Detmer.
A quick tangent here: Penn St. claims to be linebacker U with past stars at the position like Jack Ham, Shane Conlan, Lavar Arrington, and Paul Posluszny. LSU sees itself as defensive back U due to the school having had players like Jerry Stovall, Tommy Casanova, Patrick Peterson, and Tyrann Mathieu. USC is known by many as tailback U since Reggie Bush, OJ Simpson, Charles White, and Marcus Allen all attended the school. BYU may be quarterback U for all of college football. The Cougars possible competition could only come from Purdue (Len Dawson, Bob Griese, Gary Danielson, Jim Everett, and Drew Bress), Stanford (John Brodie, Jim Plunkett, John Elway, and Andrew Luck), USC (Pat Haden, Paul McDonald, Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart), and Miami (Jim Kelly, Bernie Kosar, Vinny Testaverde, Ken Dorsey, and Gino Torretta) for that spot, but I think they may have it solidified at this point.
Back to Taysom Hill. Hill, once a Stanford recruit when Jim Harbaugh was still there, is fast, strong, quick, mobile, tall, shifty, smart, and the best player in the country that nobody knows about. Hill has always had a very rare athletic ability for a quarterback, as he showed against Texas in 2013 when he ran for an absurd 259 yards and 3 touchdowns, the second most yards in a game in school history behind only Eldon Fortie's 272 yard performance in 1962 against George Washington and the most yards that UT has ever given up in a game (their tackling was laughable against Hill). In 2014, Hill fractured his leg in a game against Utah State and he had to miss the rest of the season, including a 55-30 loss to Boise St..
It is very hard to get a read on how things are going to play out in Provo between BYU and Boise. Hill has been as integral to BYU as any single player to their team in college football over the last couple years, so Boise's smashing of BYU will play out differently this season with Hill in the game.
Boise are one of only 15 FBS teams to be returning all five offensive lineman from 2014, including first team all-Mountain West center Marcus Henry and second team all-Mountain West left tackle Rees Odhiambo. The Broncos have lost a lot of talent at the skill positions. Quarterback Grant Hedrick, who threw for a career high 410 yards and four touchdowns against the Cougars, is gone and so is third team All-American running back Jay Ajayi, who ran for 118 yards and 2 touchdowns against BYU last year and was a beast for the Broncos in the backfield.
There is no reason to underestimate the Broncos. Since 1999, Boise has an unbelievable record of 177-31 in 16 seasons and in three different conferences. That amazing mark includes their unforgettable trick-play victory in 2006 against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, a 17-10 win over TCU in the Fiesta Bowl to finish 14-0 in 2009, and a 12-2 season in 2014 that was capped off by a 38-30 Fiesta Bowl win over Pac-12 foe Arizona. Is it possible for a team to be underrated that has finished with undefeated or with 1 loss in 8 of the last 13 seasons and has had regular seasons wins over #12 Oregon in Eugene in 2008, #14 Oregon on the blue turf in Boise in 2009, #6 Virginia Tech at FedEx Field in 2010, and #22 Georgia in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game in 2011 from the Georgia Dome?
I can guarantee that the Cougars defense will not allow 55 points again to Boise, including 31 points in one quarter. I think Tysom Hill will be able to carry his team to a victory against the always talented and well coached Boise State Broncos in week 2.
Week 3
Georgia Tech at Notre Dame at 3:30 on NBC on Saturday, September 19th:
There are a lot of different things that are cool or sexy in this world. Most people can agree that Hollywood sexualizes Margot Robbie in her films, as she is a modern-day sex symbol equivalent to Raquel Welch from the 1960s. Chris Pratt is cool, as anybody that has seen Guardians of the Galaxy and Jurassic World can certainly attest to. How about some athletes? Allen Iverson had as much flare as any professional athlete, as he crossed over defender after defender on his personal mixtape. Bryce Harper is the "ultimate bro," a guy whose hair is so cool that the Washington crowd goes wild when he takes his helmet off and flicks his hair around after home runs. A lot of college football offenses are cool to watch, like when Washington St. spreads you out and throws the ball 70 times a game under head coach Mike Leach.
The old, traditional triple option running attack with a quarterback under center is definitely not the sexiest thing watch. I enjoy fullback dives and offensive linemen chip blocking defensive tackles and ends as much as the next guy, but I'm not watching a wishbone offense for its flare and excitement.
Paul Johnson, who coached at Navy from 2002 to 2007 and then brought the triple option flexbone attack to Georgia Tech in 2008, said, "Yeah, it's not sexy as some of the other stuff, but if you look now at the offenses, there's hardly a team that doesn't run some form of option." Johnson is absolutely correct. The triple option, especially out of the flexbone formation, is not a pro style offense, but so many teams run different variations of the triple option nowadays that it is not an anachronistic offense.
Although Auburn's offense under Gus Malzahn looks a little different than Georgia Tech's attack, it is a variation of the triple option offense with the quarterback just taking the snap from the shotgun instead of under center. When the Tigers run an inside zone with two half-backs in the backfield or run their inside zone with a jet sweep handoff or jet sweep fake, they are running a variety of the triple option. While the service academies, and now Georgia Tech, are known for the flexbone offense, triple option attacks have spread across college football.
Georgia Tech's offense may not be the prettiest thing in the world to watch, but it is not nearly as unconventional of an offense to run as it may seem. With all of its misdirection plays and cut blocks at the line, it is going to be a tall task for Notre Dame to stop the flexbone offense in week 3 in South Bend.
It is so important in a flexbone triple option offense to have a quarterback that understands how to read the opposing defense and make the right pitch. The QB must be able to identify the defense before the snap, read the defensive end's position on the field, and be willing to take a big hit once in a while before giving it off to the half back on an option run.
From 2008 to 2010, the Yellow Jackets had Josh Nesbitt at the quarterback position, who understood how to run the triple option behind center. Nesbitt led Georgia Tech to a 22-11 record over a three-year span in games in which he started, including an Orange Bowl appearance in 2009 after an ACC Championship, the team's first such game since the 1967 Orange Bowl against Florida. Without a foundational piece at the quarterback position from 2011 to 2013, (the Yellow Jackets switched off between Tevin Washington and Vad Lee under center), the Yellow Jackets could only muster a record of 22-18.
However, Paul Johnson has once again found a very a reliable quarterback option with one time Alabama commit Justin Thomas, who not only leads Tech's running attack to perfection, but also gives the Yellow Jackets more of a legitimate passing threat than any of the team's preceding quarterbacks. His 1,719 passing yards and 18 touchdowns through the air in 2014 were by far the most ever under a Paul Johnson quarterback in FBS play (in 2006 at Navy, his leading QB in passing yards, Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, threw for 384 yards and 5 touchdowns the entire season, and the team still finished 9-4). Thomas is at his best when he can get past the first line of defense and use his speed to escape any possible defenders, as he did with his 65 yard against Clemson when he made their entire secondary miss him.
The question that looms over this game is how Notre Dame is going to try and stop Thomas and Georgia Tech's offensive flexbone attack. In 2014, the Fighting Irish allowed 336 rushing yards and 5.6 yards per carry against Navy, who scored 39 points on ND. Notre Dame could not solve the Midshipmen's triple option all game long, allowing them to score touchdowns on 5 of 12 possessions. That spells a lot of trouble for Notre Dame heading into this year's clash against Georgia Tech.
However, the Fighting Irish had a very young defense last season, and are going to take great strides from some of their poor defensive displays. Outside linebacker Jaylon Smith, who was a 2014 second team AP All-American, free safety Max Redfield, and defensive tackle Sheldon Day are all returning for the Irish and are going to rectify a defense that was in all sorts of disarray last season. The Irish have way too much talent defensively to give up the kind of yards that they did last year, and Smith is going to be flying through the gaps to shut down Tech's rushing attack. It is especially important, though, that Smith and the other linebackers do not get sealed by Tech's pulling blockers and caught too deep down the field because that would force their defensive backs to make tackles in the secondary. I would like to see Notre Dame defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder mix up his defenses against the Yellow Jackets, even at times dropping his defensive backs in quarterback contains and QB spies to prevent Thomas from taking off or continually pitching the ball to his halfback.
Although the triple option is not sexiest thing in the world and will never be the football schematic version of David Beckham, the most important aspect of the Georgia Tech-Notre Dame game in South Bend will be how ND defends the Yellow Jackets flexbone attack.
Nebraska at Miami (FL) at 3:30 on ABC Saturday, September 19th:
If the Nebraska Cornhuskers and Miami Hurricanes played a game in the late 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, or early 2000s, it would be by far the biggest thing in college football that year. In a 30-year period from 1974 to 2004, Nebraska finished in the top 10 of the AP poll 20 times while Miami was not far behind with 15 finishes amongst the top 10.
The Cornhuskers won the National Championship with a 24-17 victory over the Hurricanes in the Orange Bowl in 1994 and then repeated as champions in 1995 with a 62-24 demolition of Florida in the Fiesta Bowl. Tommie Frazier finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting that year to Eddie George and Nebraska had one of the best teams of all-time with a 464 point differential over the entire season. The Cornhuskers also shared a title with Michigan in 1997 after smashing Tennessee 42-17 in the Orange Bowl.
Miami won their first National Championship by beating the Cornhuskers in 1983 after Tom Osborne went for 2 with under a minute left in the Canes 31-30 Orange Bowl victory. Miami won it all under Jimmy Johnson in 1987 after beating Oklahoma 20-14 in the Orange Bowl and then were National Champions again two years later in 1989 under Dennis Erickson with a 33-25 win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. The Hurricanes shared the title in 1991 with Washington after beating Nebraska in the Orange Bowl 22-0, and then won it all in 2001 with a 37-14 win over Nebraska in the Rose Bowl, a team that would eventually have 38 players selected in the NFL Draft, including Ed Reed, Andre Johnson, Frank Gore, Vince Wilfork, Jeremy Shockey, Jonathan Vilma, Willis McGahee, Clinton Portis, Antrel Rolle, Sean Taylor, and Kellen Winslow II.
Nebraska and Miami played four times from 1983 to 2001 with the winner of their match-up going on to win the National Championship.
However, this is no longer the 1980s or 1990s. "Another One Bites The Dust," "Livin' On A Prayer," and "Can't Touch This" are not the top songs in the world, Back to the Future, Scarface, Pulp Fiction, and Fight Club are not the most watched movies, Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush are no longer the President, and Nebraska and Miami are no longer the class of college football.
A lot has changed since the schools met in the Rose Bowl back in 2002. The Cornhuskers fired Bo Pelini after seven consecutive seasons of finishing 9-4 or 10-4, believing that they should be competing for the National Championship (we will miss Bo in Lincoln, but even more importantly, we will miss the fake Bo Pelini account now that he has left mainstream college football to coach at Youngstown St., which I give full kudos to him for doing). With Ohio St., Michigan St., Penn St., and Michigan all in the Big Ten East, Nebraska has a very solid chance to win the Big Ten West in their first year under new head coach Mike Riley, especially since they play Wisconsin in Lincoln.
Miami is still climbing a long road back from the Nevin Shapiro scandal, having mustered only one season with more than seven wins in four years under former Temple head coach Al Golden. If any team can prevent Georgia Tech from winning their second consecutive ACC Coastal divisional title, it may be Miami (Virginia Tech could surprise the Yellow Jackets as well). Nebraska and Miami will need to take small steps in order to take giant leaps to get back into the national fold.
I really liked what I saw last season from true freshman quarterback and ACC Rookie of the Year Brad Kaaya, whose mom was coincidentally the "Bye, Felicia" girl from the 1995 film Friday with Ice Cube and Chris Tucker. Aside from that amazing anecdote that Kaaya can always tell, he can also mention that he was one of the best freshman quarterbacks in all college football last season along with Ohio State's J. T. Barrett and Arizona's Anu Solomon (Clemson's Deshaun Watson is going to be the real star of this group if he can stay healthy).
Kaaya may struggle without the blocking up front of center Shane McDermott and Giants first round pick Ereck Flowers. At times last year, Kaaya held onto the ball for too long in the pocket, which could hurt him if his protection is not able to navigate around the Cornhuskers interior pressure from defensive tackles Vincent Valentine and Maliek Collins.
If Nebraska is unable to get to Kaaya, especially since defensive end Randy Gregory is now in the NFL with the Cowboys, it could be a long day for a Cornhuskers defense that allowed 59 points to Wisconsin and 45 points to USC last season. Mark Banker, Nebraska's new defensive coordinator, likes to line-up in a 4-3 scheme. However, the Cornhuskers may not have the secondary to play the man-free coverage that he likes from his defensive backs, which could be an issue when they come up against Kaaya and the Hurricanes on September 19th.
Michigan at Utah at 8:30 on Fox Sports 1 on Thursday, September 3rd:
He is back everybody! Jim Harbaugh is back in college football!
I say this in the nicest way possible, but Jim Harbaugh is a bit of a lunatic. His intensity level in all facets of life reaches that of only Tom Thibodeau. There is no denying that his personality is a little eccentric and unconventional, even for somebody that coaches sports for a living. Everybody knows that Harbaugh's insistence on going about things a certain way on the field can wear his players out, not to mention how his temperament and unrelenting manner off the field can get on the nerves of the administrators and executives around him (just ask 49ers CEO Jed York and GM Trent Baalke about that).
However, Harbaugh has won everywhere he has coached, and he dramatically improves the makeup and composition of his teams by bringing in a sense of toughness and demanding excellence through intra-squad competition.
The Wolverines have undergone an identity crisis since the end of Lloyd Carr's 13-year run in Ann Arbor. The 3-3-5 defense under Rich Rodriguez was a complete mess during his three-year tenure, and the Wolverines won fewer games then the previous season in each of Brady Hoke's successive seasons at the school.
Harbaugh is a "Michigan man" as they love to hear in Ann Arbor. He played under the great Bo Schembechler from 1983 to 1986 and lead Michigan to the Fiesta Bowl and a #2 ranking in 1985 and to the Rose Bowl in 1986, a year in which he was the Big Ten Player of the Year and finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting behind Miami quarterback Vinny Testaverde and Temple running back Paul Palmer. His dad, Jack Harbaugh, was also the defensive backs coach at Michigan from 1973 to 1979. If Jim Harbaugh wins big at Michigan, they will gladly put up with his peculiar and intense character.
The first year for Harbaugh, though, could be his most difficult one at the school. Remember that Bob Stoops was 7-5 in his first year at powerhouse Oklahoma in 1999 (one of his only four non double-digit winning seasons in 16 years at the school), Mike Gundy was 4-7 in his opening season at Oklahoma St. in 2005 and 1-7 in conference play (from 2008 to 2011, Oklahoma St. was one of only six teams along with Alabama, TCU, Oregon, Boise St., and Virginia Tech to finish in the top 25 of the coaches poll all four years), and Nick Saban was 7-6 and 4-4 in the SEC in his first year at Alabama in 2007 (since then his record is 84-11 at the school with 3 National Championships).
I suspect Harbaugh to face an initial struggle at Michigan as he attempts to instill a new identity and re-shape the roster to fit his liking. Michigan has a question mark at the quarterback position heading into 2015, and Brady Hoke struggled to recruit the type of top-level talent that the school had become accustomed to grabbing in the past (Hoke had the #31 recruiting class in 2014 and Jim Harbaugh's late arrival in Ann Arbor pushed Michigan's 2015 class down to #50 according to Rivals).
I remember going to the Michigan-Utah game back in 2008 when Michigan put up a valiant fight in the Big House but lost to the then-Mountain West Utes 25-23, a team with Paul Kruger and Sean Smith that went on to finish 13-0 and beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl 31-17. I see a similarly closely tested affair this year from Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City.
The Wolverines quarterback battle is likely going to come down to lefty Shane Morris and Iowa graduate transfer Jake Rudock, who threw for 311 yards and 2 touchdowns last season in a game against Wisconsin for the Hawkeyes. Whoever starts for Michigan is going to have to deal with a resilient Utah front seven, which includes promising young defensive linemen Hunter Dimick and Lowell Lotulelei (the younger brother of Star Lotulelei). In fact, Utah led all of college football last season with a combined 55 team sacks, including a 10 sack game on Brett Hundley in a 30-28 upset victory over UCLA. Although the Utes will not be able to make up for the loss of Nate Orchard and his nation leading 19 sacks with one player, they bring back almost everyone else on defense.
Utah is lucky to bring back consistent senior quarterback Travis Wilson, dynamic running back Devontae Booker, who was second in the Pac-12 with 1,512 rushing yards in 2014, and four of their five starting offensive lineman from last season. As great as a grab it was for Michigan to bring Harbaugh back to Ann Arbor, I like the Utes to hang him a loss in his first game at the school.
Texas at Notre Dame at 7:30 on NBC on Saturday, September 5th:
Amongst FBS programs, Notre Dame has the second most wins in college football history with 882, and Texas is third in that category with 881. The Fighting Irish have the best winning percentage amongst any NCAA football program at .732 while the Longhorns are tied with Nebraska for sixth at an impressive .712. Notre Dame's 7 Heisman Trophy winners (Angelo Bertelli, Lohnny Lujack, Leon Hart, Johnny Lattner, Paul Hornung, John Huarte, Tim Brown) is tied with Ohio St. for the most in college football and Texas is one of only ten schools with multiple winners of the award over the last 40 years along with Ohio St., Michigan, Florida, Florida St., Auburn, Oklahoma, USC, Nebraska, and Miami (running backs Earl Campbell in 1977 and Ricky Williams in 1998 won it for UT). Notre Dame's 22 total championships are the most in the FBS and Texas's 9 are in the top 10. The Fighting Irish have had 33 unanimous All-Americans, the most of any program, while the Longhorns are not far behind with 22 such selections. Notre Dame has had 485 players selected in the NFL draft including 63 in the first round, which are second and third most in the country respectively. Under head coaches Darrell Royal and Fred Akers from 1957 to 1986, the Longhorns finished in the top 5 of the AP poll an 12 times, playing in 13 Cotton Bowls over that stretch. Notre Dame is so big that they do not even need to be apart of a conference while ESPN agreed to a 20 year, 300 million dollar deal with the University of Texas to set up the Longhorn Network, largely centered around UT football.
History, tradition, legacies, huge fan bases, and immense financial backing from supporters will be very present when the schools square off in South Bend on September 5th.
Some of the particulars of the game have to be overlooked if you want to be interested in it. Charlie Strong dismissed anybody that talked at Texas in his first year at the program, as 9 players left the team for legal or disciplinary reasons. Strong wants to create a new culture of accountability with the Longhorns, but it is going to take time for that to happen.
Texas's 6-7 season last year was just the third time in over 20 years that they finished below .500, and Tyrone Swoopes struggled to ever get the offense going once he took over for David Ash at QB (Ash's career came to an end during the season because of multiple concussions). Strong has the management capabilities and heavy resources at UT to build a roster full of disciplined players like he did at Louisville, but it is not there yet.
The ghost of Mack Brown's recruiting past still haunts Texas. He tried to recruit eventual Heisman Trophy winners Robert Griffin III and Johnny Manziel at defensive back. Brown did not pursue future number one pick Andrew Luck, who played high school football in Houston. He did not offer a scholarship to another eventual Heisman Trophy winner James Winston, who said, "If I'd gotten the offer from Texas, I'd be going to Texas right now. But I never got offered." Texas's problems run deeper than the QB position, but they have not been able to find a good signal-caller since Colt McCoy left.
Meanwhile, Brian Kelly ran Everett Golson out of town just 3 years after the quarterback led the Fighting Irish to the BCS National Championship Game against Alabama. For as magical as that run was with Tyler Eifert, Zack Martin, Louis Nix, Stephon Tuitt, Manti Te'o, and Manti Te'o's fake girlfriend, that was the only time that the Fighting Irish have finished in the top 10 of the coaches poll in more than 20 years. To make things even worse, Notre Dame is still paying Charlie Weis more then Brian Kelly (the Fighting Irish initially paid Weis $6.6 million back in 2009 when he was fired and they have given him $2.1 million for four straight years as a part of their separation agreement. How did Weis get such a sweet deal you may be wondering? Back in 2005, Notre Dame started the season surprisingly well in Weis's first year, including a victory over #3 Michigan in Ann Arbor. As NFL rumors began to swirl around the former Jets and Patriots offensive coordinator, ND freaked out and gave him a ridiculous 10-year deal after 7 games in charge).
Obviously, this is not your father's Texas or your father's Notre Dame, but this game still means something between the two powerhouse college football programs.
Despite having a very tough schedule with games against Georgia Tech, Clemson, USC, and Stanford, Notre Dame has enough talent to be a sleeper top 10 team by the end of the season, especially if they can start off the season with a momentum building win over the Longhorns. I really like the Fighting Irish defense, which should be more reminiscent of the stout 2012 unit than the defense from last season that was 84th in the nation in points allowed. ND is getting a lot of players back on defense from injury and suspension, including cornerback KeiVarae Rusell and defensive end Ishaq Williams from academic suspension and Jarrett Grace from the knee injury that he suffered in 2013 against Arizona State. They return 19 starters from last season's team, and nearly their entire defense.
Texas has just 5 returning defensive starters (only Kansas is bringing back less players on that side of the ball in the Big 12). As you would expect, the Longhorns have plenty of young talent and speed, especially after bringing back running back Jonathan Gray and defensive back Duke Thomas. However, they still have a lot of holes to fill on both sides of the ball and a question mark at the quarterback position with a battle in camp ensuing between Tyrone Swoopes and redshirt freshman Jerrod Heard. This could be an intriguing game between two pillars of the sport.
Wisconsin vs Alabama at 8:00 on ABC on Saturday, September 5th in the Cowboys Classic from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas:
Alabama lost a lot of key players from their 2014 college football playoff team. Amari Cooper, a Fred Biletnikoff Award winner for best college football wide receiver and a Heisman Trophy Finalist after setting school records in catches with 124, receiving yards with 1,727, and touchdowns with 16, was selected 4th overall in the NFL Draft. Landon Collins, one of only three unanimous All-American defensive backs and who led the team in tackles and was tied for the team lead in interceptions, was picked by the Giants in the 2nd round. T. J. Yeldon was also selected in the 2nd round, a running back that rushed for more than 970 yards and 11 touchdowns in all three of his seasons in Tuscaloosa, which is something that Kenneth Darby, Glen Coffee, Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, and Eddie Lacy never did at the school. Blake Sims, who broke the school's single-season passing record, is gone. Alabama is also not returning three of its starting offensive linemen from last year, making it one of only three teams in the SEC along with Florida and Mississippi St. to have only one or two returning offensive linemen.
With all that being said, Alabama is still the SEC favorite to represent the conference in the College Football Playoff, and their season will be considered a failure if they do not make it back there. Every school in the country loses pieces in any given season due to the NFL Draft, transfers, and graduates (just look at Bama's week one opponent, Wisconsin, who is losing Doak Walker Award Winner and Heisman Finalist running back Melvin Gordon and consensus first team All-Big Ten offensive tackle Rob Havenstein).
However, Alabama may be the only school in the country that can recover year after year from all of its departures because of the boatload of five and four star players that the team is able to recruit every year. According to Rivals, Alabama had the number one recruiting class in 2012, 2013, and 2014, and the Tide were second in the team rankings in 2015 behind USC. While landing top recruits does not guarantee success by any means - Georgia had the #7 class in 2008, #6 in 2009, #15 in 2010, #5 in 2011, #12 in 2012, #12 again in 2013, #7 in 2014, and the #6 class in 2015 and has not made a BCS Bowl game or College Football Playoff over that stretch - it does make life a lot easier.
We all know that Wisconsin loves to run the football. Even though I think that new head coach Paul Chryst will bring a little more balance to a Wisconsin offense that could barely move the football if it was not in Gordon's hands last season, the Badgers are still going to try to pound the rock.
The problem with that strategy in against the Crimson Tide is that Alabama's front seven is downright scary. It all starts right up the middle with A'Shawn Robinson and his teammate Jarran Reed, two massive defensive tackles for the Tide that make up the best interior tandem in college football. Robinson is going to be a first round pick if he comes out after his junior season, especially since he is versatile enough to play nose tackle or defensive end in Bama's usual three down linemen sets. If Wisconsin's offensive line can somehow push Robinson out of the way, Reuben Foster and Reggie Ragland will be there to clean anything up in the Tide's linebacker unit. Ragland had the second most tackles on the team last season, and he is Alabama's most athletic player in their stout front seven, as he showed with his jumping interception against Kenny Hill and Texas A&M.
The problem for Wisconsin is that the Alabama front seven is not going to surrender the amount of rushing yards that the Badgers need to make up for their sub-par passing game. Joel Stave is a serviceable quarterback, but he is not going to win a team any games on his own, which is a problem because, as Ohio St. showed in the College Football playoff last year, the Alabama secondary is susceptible to big plays down the field. To make matters worse, the Badgers are losing both guards and an offensive tackle from the front that helped Gordon rush for 2,587 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2014.
Unless Wisconsin pulls a quickie on Nick Saban and Alabama and substitute in the Cowboys terrific offensive line in "Jerry World," I fully expect a Crimson Tide victory this time around in a Big Ten-SEC game.
Ohio St. at Virginia Tech at 8:00 on ESPN on Monday, September 7th:
Ohio St. was the best team in college football last season, and I'm not sure if you have heard about this, but they won the National Championship with their 3rd string quarterback. To me, that statement rings a little hollow at this point because when you have three of the top seven or eight quarterbacks in college football, a third-stringer is almost in a reversible position with your starter. As John Calipari might say, "Ohio St. did not have subs. They had reinforcements."
The Buckeyes only loss last season came not at Michigan St., not against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Title game in Cardinal Jones's first start, and not in the inaugural College Football Playoff, but at home to Virginia Tech. Yes, a Virginia Tech team that finished the season 7-6 with a home loss to East Carolina and who tied for last in their ACC division at 3-5 with a three game conference losing streak to Pitt, Miami, and Boston College. Obviously, context matters in sports, and J. T. Barrett was really bad against the Hokies in the second start of his career with two second half interceptions, including a complete miscommunication with his wide out when he was picked off by Donovan Riley to seal Virginia Tech's victory. The Hokies return a lot on defense in 2015, most noticeably first-team all ACC cornerback Kendall Fuller, but whoever does start for Ohio St. is going to be in complete control of the offense this time around.
So, J. T. Barrett, Cardale Jones, or Braxton Miller? That is the question on everybody's mind in the college football world right now, and here is where I stand on the QB battle.
Braxton Miller is a distant third option for the Buckeyes, and I do not think he is in the competition to start on opening night in Blacksburg. That is very odd to say about a quarterback that lead his team to an undefeated 12-0 season when they were ineligible for postseason play in 2012, passed for over 2,000 yards and rushed for over 1,000 yards in consecutive seasons (amongst power 5 conference quarterbacks, only Vince Young, Brad Smith, Cam Newton, Collin Klein and Johnny Manziel have done that a season since 2004), and is a two-time Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year (amongst the power 5 conferences, only USC running back Charles White, Stanford QB John Elway, Washington St. running back Rueben Mayes, USC quarterback Matt Leinart, USC running back Reggie Bush, Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, Texas running back Ricky Williams, Oklahoma quarterback Jason White, and Arkansas running back Darren McFadden have done that).
Miller has had two surgeries on his right throwing shoulder since last February, and he has barely thrown a football since he re-injured his shoulder in August of 2014. He even missed out on the Buckeye's recent spring practices because he had still not fully recovered from the operations. Although some successful NFL quarterbacks have come back from labrum repairs like Drew Bress and Blaine Gabbert (ok, so just Bress), it is a difficult for a quarterback to come back from two such surgeries. Even when healthy, Barrett and Jones offer more to Ohio State's offense, which means that Miller is likely going to be one of the two odd men out in Columbus.
As for J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones, either one of them could end up being under center when the Buckeyes take on the Hokies in week one, but I lean towards Jones. As he showed in the College Football Playoff against Alabama and Oregon, Cardale's arm is massive and he can vertically stretch a defense so much because of his ability to get the ball down the field to receivers like Michael Thomas and Corey Smith. Barrett is quicker than Jones, and a better dual-threat option to run the option and make the right read with Ezekiel Elliott. He has also been getting rave reviews out of the Elite 11 camp, where he seems to have fully recovered from the broken ankle he suffered against Michigan.
However, Cardale is so big that he can make up for those lost rushing yards when he scrambles and runs over guys as he gets a full head of speed with his 250 pound frame. Like when he destroyed Oregon defensive lineman Alex Balducci, or when he did trucked Alabama defensive back Landon Collins. Plus, Cradle Jones always keeps things very interesting on twitter. I'm keeping this question open and reserving my complete and final judgement on the OSU QB battle until I see how things shake out.
What I do know is that no matter who Urban Meyer decides to start on September 7th, Ezekiel Elliott is going to be running out there, Joey Bosa is going to be a menace against Va Tech's offensive line, Joshua Perry is going to be chasing guys down, and the Buckeyes should take it to the Hokies.
Week 2
Oklahoma at Tennessee at 6:00 on ESPN on Saturday, September 12th:
Is this finally the year Tennessee jumps back into the national picture?
It has been such a long time for Volunteer fans since the glory days of Phillip Fulmer in the 1990s and early 2000s, but I think that Tennessee is on the cusp of returning to national relevancy. Tennessee had 8 double-digit winning seasons from 1993 to 2004 and won the first BCS National Championship in 1998 despite losing Peyton Manning to the NFL draft. In the last 7 years, the Vols have had 4 different head coaches and an overall record of 40-47 without a season of more than 7 wins, by far their worst stretch as a football program since all the way back from 1958 to 1964.
Butch Jones has had two years to instill a new culture of responsibility in the program, and he brought in the #5 recruiting class in both 2014 and 2015, including more five star recruits then any school but Alabama and Florida State according to Rivals. The third year is typically the big season for a coach at a new school (just ask former Tennessee coach Derek Dooley about the need to produce some results in that year).
The Vols have as much talent on their roster as they have had in nearly a decade. Tennessee are bringing back 2014 second team All-SEC defensive end Derek Barnett, second team All-SEC outside linebacker Curt Maggitt, and one of the best defensive back pairings in the SEC along with Alabama's duo of Eddie Jackson and Cyrus Jones with their own tandem of Cameron Sutton and LaDarrell McNeil. Tennessee football may not be what it once was, but a win over Oklahoma would bring them closer to returning to some of those great "Rocky Top" glory days.
Frankly, you could also ask: is this the year that Oklahoma finally lives up to expectations and makes a run at the National Championship?
The Sooners were the biggest disappointment in college football last season (South Carolina was a close second). They finished 8-5 with a 40-6 bowl game loss to Clemson despite returning quarterback Trevor Knight, recruiting star running back Samaje Perine, and bringing back 9 players on defense from a team that went 11-2 with a win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl the previous year.
"Big Game Bob Stoops" has disappeared over the last several years in Norman, as the Sooners have failed to get over the hump and get into the title conversation for more than 5 years. Losses like their 2010 defeat to unranked Texas A&M when they began the season 7-1, and their failure to beat unranked Texas Tech at home in 2011 despite having won 39 straight games in Norman up to that point and being the #1 team in the country with wins over #5 Florida St. in Tallahassee and #11 Texas in the Red River Rivalry, have epitomized Oklahoma's underachievement in recent years. For a school that has won 10 or more games in 4 of the last 6 seasons, the Sooners have left much to be desired because of their massive letdowns against lesser opponents and disappointments in big games (like the 2013 defeat to #5 Baylor in Waco 41-12).
Of all the non-conference college football games this season, the contest between Oklahoma and Tennessee from Neyland Stadium may have the largest implications on how the winner and loser perform for the rest of the season.
If Oklahoma can get by the Volunteers on the road in Knoxville, things part like the red sea for them. Following that game and a relatively easy non-conference game against Tulsa, the Sooners play West Virginia at home, Texas in the Red River Rivalry in Dallas, at Kansas St., home to Texas Tech, at Kansas, and then home against Iowa State. While I generally dislike pre-season conference predictions, they do provide a general outline of the talent level of certain teams, and Oklahoma plays its first 6 conference games against the team's projected to finish 5-10 in the Big 12 standings. The Sooners are not a top 5 level college football team, especially after losing two all Big 12 first-team offensive lineman with Daryl Williams and Tyrus Thompson graduating. It is conceivable, though, that with a win over Tennessee, the Sooners could go into their final stretch against the superior Big 12 teams - at Baylor, home to TCU, and at Oklahoma St. in Bedlam - undefeated because of how their schedule sets up.
Tennessee has the opposite scenario as Oklahoma. After playing the Sooners and then having an easy game against FCS school Western Carolina, the Volunteers go to Florida in the Swamp, play at home against an improved Arkansas team, host SEC East favorite Georgia, and then play Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The Vols have a much softer end to the season with games against Kentucky, North Texas, and Vanderbilt. A loss to Oklahoma would steal the early season thunder from Tennessee, especially before such a brutal stretch of conference game. For a team that expects to be a contender in the SEC East, Tennessee has to avoid beginning the season 3-4 because that would certainly deflate their sails.
The question looming over this game is who Oklahoma starts at quarterback between incumbent starter Trevor Knight and Texas Tech transfer Baker Mayfield. Knight was the darling of college football heading into last season, but he threw at least one interception in 8 of his 10 starts. Knight's poor decision-making, and his failure to look off defenders from the pocket, were evident in the Sooners crushing loss to eventual co-Big 12 champion TCU. Knight threw a pick 6 when it was 31-31 in the 4th quarter and then tossed another interception with nearly 6 minutes left in TCU territory when the Sooners were down 37-33 (jump to 2:31).
Mayfield, the first ever true freshman walk-on to start a season for a power five conference team, sat out all of last season, but he can sling the ball around the field. He is well-suited for Oklahoma's new air raid offense and its emphasis on quick pace, no huddle play calling and variety of screen passes and trips wide receiver sets.
With everything pointing towards Mayfield possibly winning the job, why did Stoops select Knight to talk at Big 12 media day? And since the Sooners start off in week 1 against a heavily under-matched Akron team, I would not be surprised if Stoops plays both Knight and Mayfield to give the Vols defense some things to think about heading into their week 2 clash. Tennessee may not be what it once was, and Oklahoma may have been a disappointment over the last few years, but this is the most underrated game of the early college football season.
Oregon at Michigan St. at 8:00 on ABC on Saturday, September 12th:
There are a ton of compelling early season non-conference college football games this year, especially since the commissioners of all the power 5 conferences have insisted on their teams scheduling marquee games before conference play begins (the SEC has made it mandatory to play once game against another power 5 school in non-conference play). The increased emphasis on difficult non-conference games has been heightened in the College Football Playoff era, as one of the major knocks against Baylor last year was their cupcake of a non-conference slate against SMU, FCS school Northwestern St., and Buffalo.
Historic college football programs like Texas and Notre Dame are squaring off in week 1 for the first time since 1996, and traditional powers Nebraska and Miami(FL) are playing again this year in week 3. A trio of SEC teams are playing high-profile week 1 neutral site games with Alabama tangling with Wisconsin, Auburn taking on Louisville, and Texas A&M battling with Arizona State. In one of the hardest non-conference schedules, Michigan is playing two teams from the Pac-12 (at Utah in week 1 and home against Oregon St. in week 2) and the Wolverines also play a BYU team that was 4-0 in 2014 with wins at UConn and Texas before star quarterback Taysom Hill missed the rest of the season after suffering a leg injury against Utah State. Michigan's schedule pales in comparison to the Virginia Cavaliers, who are traveling to UCLA in week 1, then play Notre Dame at home in week 2, and also take on Boise St. in week 4.
There may be some match-ups that are higher scoring or between programs with a more storied past, but of all the games in the early season, the Oregon-Michigan St. game in East Lansing in week 2 will have the largest championship implications.
Things are going to be significantly different this time around between the Ducks and the Spartans due to the departure of Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Marcus Mariota, who lit the Michgian St. defense up last season in their top 10 battle in Eugene for 318 yards and 3 touchdowns in a come from behind 46-27 victory (people forget that Michigan St. led that game 27-18 with under 5 minutes left in the third quarter). You can still be sure that the Oregon and Michigan St. coaching staffs are going to be reviewing a lot of game tape from their encounter last season to understand the opposing team's offensive and defensive tendencies.
The Spartans are going to have figure out a way to slow down Oregon's offensive tempo. Their defensive front seven last season, with the likes of Shilique Calhoun and Taiwan Jones, was unable to stay up to pace with the Duck's offense or make substitutes quickly enough to bring on fresh bodies. The Spartans defensive coordinator last season, Pat Narduzzi, left to take the vacant head coaching job at Pittsburgh, so the newly minted leaders of Michigan State's defensive unit, Harlon Barnett and Mike Tressel, are going to have to figure out a way to contain the Duck's offense.
The Spartans will need to be better conditioned on defense than they were last season because as the game got late into the third quarter and into the final period, Oregon's offensive line began to overpower a tired and beat up Michigan St. defense. Oregon's lead running back Royce Freeman had just 21 yards in the first three quarters of the game. He exploded for 68 yards and 2 touchdowns in the fourth quarter after huge gaps began to come available as Michigan State's tired front was unable to get off blocks and plug the holes. On Freeman's 38 yard touchdown scamper when the Ducks were only up 32-27, Michigan State's linebacking core over-pursued the football, leaving a counterattack lane for the Oregon freshman back to run through behind his offensive line. The Spartans will have to maintain better gap discipline this time around against the Ducks.
Michigan State has enough athletes and experience coming back on defense to do a better job against Oregon's offense this time around. Shilique Calhoun, a two-time Big Ten all first-team defensive end, is back for his senior season at Michigan St. despite being a first round draft talent. Calhoun had 12.5 tackles for loss in 2014, and Joey Bosa is the only returning player in the Big Ten that had more sacks then him last season. One of the reasons that the dominant defensive end decided to return to Michigan St. was that defensive tackles Malik McDowell and Lawrence Thomas, two interior linemen with solid hands and that can get leverage off the line, are coming back to school. They allow Calhoun to exploit one-on-one matchup that come his way and they also clog up the interior, so that he can get a jump off the edge to rush the passer in their cover 4 defense.
Michigan St. likes to play a fair share of press coverage with their corners, and I do not think that will change this season if they stay with their 4-3 over defensive scheme. Their defense will put a lot of pressure on defensive backs Arjen Colquhoun, Jermaine Edmondson, Darian Hicks, and Demetrious Cox to stay with Oregon's loaded group of wide receivers, which includes Devon Allen, Keanon Lowe, Dwayne Stanford, Charles Nelson, and Darren Carrington. Michigan State has had plenty of good cornerbacks in the past that could play that kind of tight coverage on skilled wideouts with the likes of Chris Rucker, Johnny Adams, Mitchell White, Darqueze Dennard, and Trae Waynes. However, with a more inexperienced group of corners this season, Michigan State's safety group, featuring RJ Williamson, will have to be all over the field in their usual 2 or 3 deep zone coverages. The Spartans defense will have a very large crowd on their side this time around in East Lansing, making it more difficult for the Ducks to communicate their play calls at the pace they would ideally like.
In terms of Oregon's offense, most of their question marks without Mariota will not be answered until they come up against Sparty in week 2. Who is going to be behind center for the Ducks?
I feel like there are more QB competitions this year in college football then any year in the past, and Oregon coach Mark Helfrich will have to decide between last year's backup Jeff Lockie, who attempted just 28 passes all season long, and Vernon Adams, who played three seasons at the FCS level with Eastern Washington before transferring to Eugene and being eligible to play immediately.
I personally see Adams taking the starting job over Lockie. Adams, who was the runner-up to John Robertson of Villanova last season for the Walter Payton Award for the best FCS player, is not as quick as Mariota but he can definitely run the zone read when Oregon needs him to. While at Eastern Washington he ran an up tempo offense that used a lot of the same language as the one he is heading to in Eugene. Although he may not be the most prolific math student in the world and is an unknown to fans despite knocking off Oregon St. 49-46 in 2013 (he threw for 411 yards and 4 touchdowns and ran for 107 yards and 2 touchdowns in that wild game in Corvallis), Adams could be the most impactful transfer in college football in 2015.
Since so much of the game last season came down to Oregon's offense against Michigan State's defense, I have ignored Michigan State's offense against Oregon's defense. However, one of the ways that the Spartans can slow down the Ducks attack is by going up and down the field with their offense and pounding the football on the ground behind an offensive line with three returning starters. Despite losing Jeremy Langford to the NFL, Michigan State's running backs should be able to follow the lanes opened up to them by 2014 first team Big-Ten center Jack Allen and second team Big-Ten offensive tackle Jack Conklin. The Spartans will need a little better game this time around from Connor Cook to help them exact revenge on Oregon, which I think they will be able to do in East Lansing.
Boise St. at BYU at 10:15 on ESPN2 on Saturday, September 12th:
Every year in college football, there is always at least one player that is must-see television because of his explosiveness and ability to reel off big plays at any moment. There is invariably one player that a team desperately rallies on to be their do-it-all play maker, and to make everybody around them seem so much better. They may have some slight back pain after a game from carrying their teammates to such a great extent (just ask James Harden how it feels to do that for an entire regular season due to so many Rockets injuries).
In 2007, running back Kevin Smith did almost everything for the UCF offense, rushing for 2,567 yards and 29 touchdowns, including having 9 games with more than 170 yards on the ground. In 2011, Kevin Sumlin put the ball in Case Keenum's hands and let him sling it around anywhere he wanted, as Kennum threw for an astonishing 5,631 yards and 48 touchdowns. In 2012, Jordan Lynch was that guy for Northern Illinois, throwing for 3,138 yards and 25 touchdowns and rushing for 1,815 yards and 19 touchdowns to push the Huskies all the way into the Orange Bowl against Florida State.
The do-it-all guy to watch this season in college football is BYU quarterback Taysom Hill, who is a definite dark horse Heisman Trophy candidate. Hill is part of a long line of exciting BYU quarterbacks including Gary Sheide, Gifford Neilsen, Marc Wilson, 1985 Bears Super Bowl winning QB Jim McMahon, 1983 Heisman Trophy runner-up and 1992 and 1994 NFL MVP Steve Young, 1984 National Championship winning QB Robbie Bosco, former Sammy Baugh Award winner and current USC coach Steve Sarkisian, and 1990 Heisman winner Ty Detmer.
A quick tangent here: Penn St. claims to be linebacker U with past stars at the position like Jack Ham, Shane Conlan, Lavar Arrington, and Paul Posluszny. LSU sees itself as defensive back U due to the school having had players like Jerry Stovall, Tommy Casanova, Patrick Peterson, and Tyrann Mathieu. USC is known by many as tailback U since Reggie Bush, OJ Simpson, Charles White, and Marcus Allen all attended the school. BYU may be quarterback U for all of college football. The Cougars possible competition could only come from Purdue (Len Dawson, Bob Griese, Gary Danielson, Jim Everett, and Drew Bress), Stanford (John Brodie, Jim Plunkett, John Elway, and Andrew Luck), USC (Pat Haden, Paul McDonald, Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart), and Miami (Jim Kelly, Bernie Kosar, Vinny Testaverde, Ken Dorsey, and Gino Torretta) for that spot, but I think they may have it solidified at this point.
Back to Taysom Hill. Hill, once a Stanford recruit when Jim Harbaugh was still there, is fast, strong, quick, mobile, tall, shifty, smart, and the best player in the country that nobody knows about. Hill has always had a very rare athletic ability for a quarterback, as he showed against Texas in 2013 when he ran for an absurd 259 yards and 3 touchdowns, the second most yards in a game in school history behind only Eldon Fortie's 272 yard performance in 1962 against George Washington and the most yards that UT has ever given up in a game (their tackling was laughable against Hill). In 2014, Hill fractured his leg in a game against Utah State and he had to miss the rest of the season, including a 55-30 loss to Boise St..
It is very hard to get a read on how things are going to play out in Provo between BYU and Boise. Hill has been as integral to BYU as any single player to their team in college football over the last couple years, so Boise's smashing of BYU will play out differently this season with Hill in the game.
Boise are one of only 15 FBS teams to be returning all five offensive lineman from 2014, including first team all-Mountain West center Marcus Henry and second team all-Mountain West left tackle Rees Odhiambo. The Broncos have lost a lot of talent at the skill positions. Quarterback Grant Hedrick, who threw for a career high 410 yards and four touchdowns against the Cougars, is gone and so is third team All-American running back Jay Ajayi, who ran for 118 yards and 2 touchdowns against BYU last year and was a beast for the Broncos in the backfield.
There is no reason to underestimate the Broncos. Since 1999, Boise has an unbelievable record of 177-31 in 16 seasons and in three different conferences. That amazing mark includes their unforgettable trick-play victory in 2006 against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, a 17-10 win over TCU in the Fiesta Bowl to finish 14-0 in 2009, and a 12-2 season in 2014 that was capped off by a 38-30 Fiesta Bowl win over Pac-12 foe Arizona. Is it possible for a team to be underrated that has finished with undefeated or with 1 loss in 8 of the last 13 seasons and has had regular seasons wins over #12 Oregon in Eugene in 2008, #14 Oregon on the blue turf in Boise in 2009, #6 Virginia Tech at FedEx Field in 2010, and #22 Georgia in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game in 2011 from the Georgia Dome?
I can guarantee that the Cougars defense will not allow 55 points again to Boise, including 31 points in one quarter. I think Tysom Hill will be able to carry his team to a victory against the always talented and well coached Boise State Broncos in week 2.
Week 3
Georgia Tech at Notre Dame at 3:30 on NBC on Saturday, September 19th:
There are a lot of different things that are cool or sexy in this world. Most people can agree that Hollywood sexualizes Margot Robbie in her films, as she is a modern-day sex symbol equivalent to Raquel Welch from the 1960s. Chris Pratt is cool, as anybody that has seen Guardians of the Galaxy and Jurassic World can certainly attest to. How about some athletes? Allen Iverson had as much flare as any professional athlete, as he crossed over defender after defender on his personal mixtape. Bryce Harper is the "ultimate bro," a guy whose hair is so cool that the Washington crowd goes wild when he takes his helmet off and flicks his hair around after home runs. A lot of college football offenses are cool to watch, like when Washington St. spreads you out and throws the ball 70 times a game under head coach Mike Leach.
The old, traditional triple option running attack with a quarterback under center is definitely not the sexiest thing watch. I enjoy fullback dives and offensive linemen chip blocking defensive tackles and ends as much as the next guy, but I'm not watching a wishbone offense for its flare and excitement.
Paul Johnson, who coached at Navy from 2002 to 2007 and then brought the triple option flexbone attack to Georgia Tech in 2008, said, "Yeah, it's not sexy as some of the other stuff, but if you look now at the offenses, there's hardly a team that doesn't run some form of option." Johnson is absolutely correct. The triple option, especially out of the flexbone formation, is not a pro style offense, but so many teams run different variations of the triple option nowadays that it is not an anachronistic offense.
Although Auburn's offense under Gus Malzahn looks a little different than Georgia Tech's attack, it is a variation of the triple option offense with the quarterback just taking the snap from the shotgun instead of under center. When the Tigers run an inside zone with two half-backs in the backfield or run their inside zone with a jet sweep handoff or jet sweep fake, they are running a variety of the triple option. While the service academies, and now Georgia Tech, are known for the flexbone offense, triple option attacks have spread across college football.
Georgia Tech's offense may not be the prettiest thing in the world to watch, but it is not nearly as unconventional of an offense to run as it may seem. With all of its misdirection plays and cut blocks at the line, it is going to be a tall task for Notre Dame to stop the flexbone offense in week 3 in South Bend.
It is so important in a flexbone triple option offense to have a quarterback that understands how to read the opposing defense and make the right pitch. The QB must be able to identify the defense before the snap, read the defensive end's position on the field, and be willing to take a big hit once in a while before giving it off to the half back on an option run.
From 2008 to 2010, the Yellow Jackets had Josh Nesbitt at the quarterback position, who understood how to run the triple option behind center. Nesbitt led Georgia Tech to a 22-11 record over a three-year span in games in which he started, including an Orange Bowl appearance in 2009 after an ACC Championship, the team's first such game since the 1967 Orange Bowl against Florida. Without a foundational piece at the quarterback position from 2011 to 2013, (the Yellow Jackets switched off between Tevin Washington and Vad Lee under center), the Yellow Jackets could only muster a record of 22-18.
However, Paul Johnson has once again found a very a reliable quarterback option with one time Alabama commit Justin Thomas, who not only leads Tech's running attack to perfection, but also gives the Yellow Jackets more of a legitimate passing threat than any of the team's preceding quarterbacks. His 1,719 passing yards and 18 touchdowns through the air in 2014 were by far the most ever under a Paul Johnson quarterback in FBS play (in 2006 at Navy, his leading QB in passing yards, Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, threw for 384 yards and 5 touchdowns the entire season, and the team still finished 9-4). Thomas is at his best when he can get past the first line of defense and use his speed to escape any possible defenders, as he did with his 65 yard against Clemson when he made their entire secondary miss him.
The question that looms over this game is how Notre Dame is going to try and stop Thomas and Georgia Tech's offensive flexbone attack. In 2014, the Fighting Irish allowed 336 rushing yards and 5.6 yards per carry against Navy, who scored 39 points on ND. Notre Dame could not solve the Midshipmen's triple option all game long, allowing them to score touchdowns on 5 of 12 possessions. That spells a lot of trouble for Notre Dame heading into this year's clash against Georgia Tech.
However, the Fighting Irish had a very young defense last season, and are going to take great strides from some of their poor defensive displays. Outside linebacker Jaylon Smith, who was a 2014 second team AP All-American, free safety Max Redfield, and defensive tackle Sheldon Day are all returning for the Irish and are going to rectify a defense that was in all sorts of disarray last season. The Irish have way too much talent defensively to give up the kind of yards that they did last year, and Smith is going to be flying through the gaps to shut down Tech's rushing attack. It is especially important, though, that Smith and the other linebackers do not get sealed by Tech's pulling blockers and caught too deep down the field because that would force their defensive backs to make tackles in the secondary. I would like to see Notre Dame defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder mix up his defenses against the Yellow Jackets, even at times dropping his defensive backs in quarterback contains and QB spies to prevent Thomas from taking off or continually pitching the ball to his halfback.
Although the triple option is not sexiest thing in the world and will never be the football schematic version of David Beckham, the most important aspect of the Georgia Tech-Notre Dame game in South Bend will be how ND defends the Yellow Jackets flexbone attack.
Nebraska at Miami (FL) at 3:30 on ABC Saturday, September 19th:
If the Nebraska Cornhuskers and Miami Hurricanes played a game in the late 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, or early 2000s, it would be by far the biggest thing in college football that year. In a 30-year period from 1974 to 2004, Nebraska finished in the top 10 of the AP poll 20 times while Miami was not far behind with 15 finishes amongst the top 10.
The Cornhuskers won the National Championship with a 24-17 victory over the Hurricanes in the Orange Bowl in 1994 and then repeated as champions in 1995 with a 62-24 demolition of Florida in the Fiesta Bowl. Tommie Frazier finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting that year to Eddie George and Nebraska had one of the best teams of all-time with a 464 point differential over the entire season. The Cornhuskers also shared a title with Michigan in 1997 after smashing Tennessee 42-17 in the Orange Bowl.
Miami won their first National Championship by beating the Cornhuskers in 1983 after Tom Osborne went for 2 with under a minute left in the Canes 31-30 Orange Bowl victory. Miami won it all under Jimmy Johnson in 1987 after beating Oklahoma 20-14 in the Orange Bowl and then were National Champions again two years later in 1989 under Dennis Erickson with a 33-25 win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. The Hurricanes shared the title in 1991 with Washington after beating Nebraska in the Orange Bowl 22-0, and then won it all in 2001 with a 37-14 win over Nebraska in the Rose Bowl, a team that would eventually have 38 players selected in the NFL Draft, including Ed Reed, Andre Johnson, Frank Gore, Vince Wilfork, Jeremy Shockey, Jonathan Vilma, Willis McGahee, Clinton Portis, Antrel Rolle, Sean Taylor, and Kellen Winslow II.
Nebraska and Miami played four times from 1983 to 2001 with the winner of their match-up going on to win the National Championship.
However, this is no longer the 1980s or 1990s. "Another One Bites The Dust," "Livin' On A Prayer," and "Can't Touch This" are not the top songs in the world, Back to the Future, Scarface, Pulp Fiction, and Fight Club are not the most watched movies, Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush are no longer the President, and Nebraska and Miami are no longer the class of college football.
A lot has changed since the schools met in the Rose Bowl back in 2002. The Cornhuskers fired Bo Pelini after seven consecutive seasons of finishing 9-4 or 10-4, believing that they should be competing for the National Championship (we will miss Bo in Lincoln, but even more importantly, we will miss the fake Bo Pelini account now that he has left mainstream college football to coach at Youngstown St., which I give full kudos to him for doing). With Ohio St., Michigan St., Penn St., and Michigan all in the Big Ten East, Nebraska has a very solid chance to win the Big Ten West in their first year under new head coach Mike Riley, especially since they play Wisconsin in Lincoln.
Miami is still climbing a long road back from the Nevin Shapiro scandal, having mustered only one season with more than seven wins in four years under former Temple head coach Al Golden. If any team can prevent Georgia Tech from winning their second consecutive ACC Coastal divisional title, it may be Miami (Virginia Tech could surprise the Yellow Jackets as well). Nebraska and Miami will need to take small steps in order to take giant leaps to get back into the national fold.
I really liked what I saw last season from true freshman quarterback and ACC Rookie of the Year Brad Kaaya, whose mom was coincidentally the "Bye, Felicia" girl from the 1995 film Friday with Ice Cube and Chris Tucker. Aside from that amazing anecdote that Kaaya can always tell, he can also mention that he was one of the best freshman quarterbacks in all college football last season along with Ohio State's J. T. Barrett and Arizona's Anu Solomon (Clemson's Deshaun Watson is going to be the real star of this group if he can stay healthy).
Kaaya may struggle without the blocking up front of center Shane McDermott and Giants first round pick Ereck Flowers. At times last year, Kaaya held onto the ball for too long in the pocket, which could hurt him if his protection is not able to navigate around the Cornhuskers interior pressure from defensive tackles Vincent Valentine and Maliek Collins.
If Nebraska is unable to get to Kaaya, especially since defensive end Randy Gregory is now in the NFL with the Cowboys, it could be a long day for a Cornhuskers defense that allowed 59 points to Wisconsin and 45 points to USC last season. Mark Banker, Nebraska's new defensive coordinator, likes to line-up in a 4-3 scheme. However, the Cornhuskers may not have the secondary to play the man-free coverage that he likes from his defensive backs, which could be an issue when they come up against Kaaya and the Hurricanes on September 19th.
Friday, May 8, 2015
The Adam Dunn Article
For some random reason, I sat down to watch the Dodgers and Brewers play two night ago on May 6th, particularly because one of my favorite former Red Sox players, Adrian Gonzalez, had started the year off on a tear with 9 home runs and a .364 batting average through his first 26 starts.
And yet, it was a highly touted, baby-faced, lanky 23-year old center field prospect playing for LA, who was thrust into a very important role for the team earlier than expected because of an injury to Yasiel Puig, that caught my eye. That night, he ended up hitting the first multiple home run game of his career on two solo blasts in the 5th and 8th innings. The next night I turned back on the Dodgers game to watch Joc Pederson again and he came to the plate 6 times, struck out 3 times, and walked on 2 other occasions.
This has been the theme of Pederson's early rookie season because when he comes to the plate, he either goes yard, strikes out, or takes first on a walk (9 of his first 23 big league hits have been home runs). There is only one man over the past decade who defined his career based upon those three true outcomes and that is the one and only Adam Dunn (the original three true outcome king was Rob Deer).
There is a game that little kids know from Sesame Street called "One of These Things," where Kermit and Susan identify which item does not belong in a group. If I give you Jason Statham, Liam Neeson, Daniel Craig, and Steve Seagal, the name that does not quite fit in for an action movie star is Seagal. How about Charles Barkley, Reggie Miller, Elgin Baylor, and John Havlicek? The answer is Havlicek because he won a NBA Championship. If I gave you Carlos Mesa, Danny Bejarano, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Evo Morales, Bejarano is the one that does not fit (know your Bolivian Presidents guys). If I give you Tom Hanks, Dustin Hoffman, Roberto Benigni, and Jack Nicholson, you know the odd man out would be Benigni because all four won the Academy Award for Best Actor, but only three of them can act.
So when people ask you in terms of home runs which name does not fit between Adam Dunn, Willie McCovey, Duke Snider and Willie Stargell, the answer may surprise you but it is Duke Snider, who is the only one that did not hit at least 460 career home runs (Snider hit 407 with the Dodgers, Mets, and Giants). Dunn's 462 career home runs are in the top 20 for a player over the last 40 years and he hit more long balls than all-time great power hitters like Andre Dawson, Juan Gonzalez, Billy Williams, Al Kaline, and Dale Murphy.
In very Adam Dunn-like manner, he is also third all-time in strikeouts with 2,379 career K's, behind only Reggie Jackson and Jim Thome, and his career K% of 28.6% is the highest for any batter with a minimum of 4,600 career plate appearances. Only one batter could put up those kind of numbers, so long live the unique legacy of Adam Dunn (also, long live the Starks because they are quickly dying out)!
Like most normal Americans, I have been waiting to write an Adam Dunn article for years, hoping that he would eventually get into the 500-home run club and be BY FAR the worst player ever to do so. As I patiently sat at home and fixated over his quickly rising home run numbers, despite his annual 170 strikeout seasons (and that would be a good year for him), I realized that Adam Dunn is a bigger hit or miss character than Ryan Reynolds (I will never forget the horror that was masquerading as the film Green Lantern, never). The "Big Donkey," as he is known around MLB circles, has always fascinated me with his all or nothing approach at the plate, an emphasis on the three true baseball outcomes of homers, strikeouts, and walks, which Joc Pederson is now emulating.
Dunn was incapable of doing anything other than slugging home runs or striking-out with his big, loopy left-handed swing during his 14-year career with the Reds, D-Backs, Nats, White Sox, and A's. His high-risk, high-reward batting style was always put under a microscope because of his astronomical strikeout rates and his failure to drive runners in scoring position home, but he was a guy that was one of baseball's most alluring hitters with his easy power. Only a few names in MLB history can be compared to all-time great power hitters from Ralph Kiner, Hank Greenberg, and Jimmie Foxx to Ken Griffey Jr. and Frank Thomas, but also be aligned with batters like Lee May, Royce Clayton, Mark Reynolds, and Seth Green in terms of empty opportunities at the dish (one of those names may not apply).
Unfortunately, Dunn retired after the Oakland A's loss to the Kansas City Royals in the AL Wild Card Game last year. Despite waiting until May to make see if he would come back for some team to hit homers and strike out in 2015, I think he may just be making cameos in movies like he did in Dallas Buyers Club. Although he fell 38 long balls short of 500, an arbitrary mark anyway, some of his career numbers in terms of only hitting home runs, striking-out, or walking may never be repeated.
Here Are Some Of The Craziest Adam Dunn Stats:
And yet, it was a highly touted, baby-faced, lanky 23-year old center field prospect playing for LA, who was thrust into a very important role for the team earlier than expected because of an injury to Yasiel Puig, that caught my eye. That night, he ended up hitting the first multiple home run game of his career on two solo blasts in the 5th and 8th innings. The next night I turned back on the Dodgers game to watch Joc Pederson again and he came to the plate 6 times, struck out 3 times, and walked on 2 other occasions.
This has been the theme of Pederson's early rookie season because when he comes to the plate, he either goes yard, strikes out, or takes first on a walk (9 of his first 23 big league hits have been home runs). There is only one man over the past decade who defined his career based upon those three true outcomes and that is the one and only Adam Dunn (the original three true outcome king was Rob Deer).
There is a game that little kids know from Sesame Street called "One of These Things," where Kermit and Susan identify which item does not belong in a group. If I give you Jason Statham, Liam Neeson, Daniel Craig, and Steve Seagal, the name that does not quite fit in for an action movie star is Seagal. How about Charles Barkley, Reggie Miller, Elgin Baylor, and John Havlicek? The answer is Havlicek because he won a NBA Championship. If I gave you Carlos Mesa, Danny Bejarano, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Evo Morales, Bejarano is the one that does not fit (know your Bolivian Presidents guys). If I give you Tom Hanks, Dustin Hoffman, Roberto Benigni, and Jack Nicholson, you know the odd man out would be Benigni because all four won the Academy Award for Best Actor, but only three of them can act.
So when people ask you in terms of home runs which name does not fit between Adam Dunn, Willie McCovey, Duke Snider and Willie Stargell, the answer may surprise you but it is Duke Snider, who is the only one that did not hit at least 460 career home runs (Snider hit 407 with the Dodgers, Mets, and Giants). Dunn's 462 career home runs are in the top 20 for a player over the last 40 years and he hit more long balls than all-time great power hitters like Andre Dawson, Juan Gonzalez, Billy Williams, Al Kaline, and Dale Murphy.
In very Adam Dunn-like manner, he is also third all-time in strikeouts with 2,379 career K's, behind only Reggie Jackson and Jim Thome, and his career K% of 28.6% is the highest for any batter with a minimum of 4,600 career plate appearances. Only one batter could put up those kind of numbers, so long live the unique legacy of Adam Dunn (also, long live the Starks because they are quickly dying out)!
Like most normal Americans, I have been waiting to write an Adam Dunn article for years, hoping that he would eventually get into the 500-home run club and be BY FAR the worst player ever to do so. As I patiently sat at home and fixated over his quickly rising home run numbers, despite his annual 170 strikeout seasons (and that would be a good year for him), I realized that Adam Dunn is a bigger hit or miss character than Ryan Reynolds (I will never forget the horror that was masquerading as the film Green Lantern, never). The "Big Donkey," as he is known around MLB circles, has always fascinated me with his all or nothing approach at the plate, an emphasis on the three true baseball outcomes of homers, strikeouts, and walks, which Joc Pederson is now emulating.
Dunn was incapable of doing anything other than slugging home runs or striking-out with his big, loopy left-handed swing during his 14-year career with the Reds, D-Backs, Nats, White Sox, and A's. His high-risk, high-reward batting style was always put under a microscope because of his astronomical strikeout rates and his failure to drive runners in scoring position home, but he was a guy that was one of baseball's most alluring hitters with his easy power. Only a few names in MLB history can be compared to all-time great power hitters from Ralph Kiner, Hank Greenberg, and Jimmie Foxx to Ken Griffey Jr. and Frank Thomas, but also be aligned with batters like Lee May, Royce Clayton, Mark Reynolds, and Seth Green in terms of empty opportunities at the dish (one of those names may not apply).
Unfortunately, Dunn retired after the Oakland A's loss to the Kansas City Royals in the AL Wild Card Game last year. Despite waiting until May to make see if he would come back for some team to hit homers and strike out in 2015, I think he may just be making cameos in movies like he did in Dallas Buyers Club. Although he fell 38 long balls short of 500, an arbitrary mark anyway, some of his career numbers in terms of only hitting home runs, striking-out, or walking may never be repeated.
Here Are Some Of The Craziest Adam Dunn Stats:
- Of the 41 hitters in major league history to have hit at least 440 home runs, only Adam Dunn (25.1) and Dave Kingman (20.4) had a career WAR below 42.0.
- The only other player to have blasted at least 360 homers and yet still have a career WAR as low as Dunn and Kingman was Joe Carter, who had a career WAR of 17.1. Carter rarely got on base, but he hit 396 long balls during his career, most of them with the Blue Jays after a massive trade between San Diego and Toronto that sent Carter and Roberto Alomar to the Jays and Fred McGriff to the Padres in 1989. Carter's 1993 World Series homer for Toronto made up for all those seasons when his OBP was barely above .300 because he never walked. (Carter is the third coolest guy in Toronto behind the Ford brothers, but definitely ahead of Phil Kessel).
- From 2010 to 2013, Adam Dunn stroke out 787 times in 2,400 plate appearances. Over the final 15 seasons of his career with the Red Sox from 1969 to 1983, Carl Yastrzemski stroke out a total of 776 times in 8,721 plate appearances, less than Dunn with more than 3.5 times the plate appearances. And yet, Dunn and Yaz sit next to each in other on the all-time home runs list and are 2 of only 40 players in nearly half a century to have a season with an isolated power of .295 or above (Yaz in 1967 when he won the AL MVP and the Triple Crown had a .295 ISO and Dunn had a .303 ISO in 2004).
- The beauty of baseball is that different pros can do things in such drastically different manners to help their team win a game. Look at American League left fielders Alex Gordon and Hanley Ramirez.
- Gordon, who has won four straight Gold Gloves for KC, catches any ball within his zip code. His ultimate zone rating, which according to fangraphs "puts a run value to defense, attempting to quantify how many runs a player saved or gave up through their fielding prowess (or lack thereof)," is the 6th highest in the league (his UZR of 25.0 led the MLB last season). Despite only having a modest slash line of .253/.364/.425 so far in 2015, Gordon is baseball's best left fielder (sorry Matt Holliday) and the most important everyday player on the Royals along with Eric Hosmer and Salvador Perez.
- Hanley Ramirez may be the worst left fielder to have played the position in some time. He is slowly morphing into Manny Ramirez with his complete ineptitude to play the outfield, but his pure looking, effortless swing that just shoots balls over the monster. The Red Sox rely so heavily on his production at the plate that it is no coincidence that when he hit 10 home runs in April the Sox went a respectable 11-10 and then when he hurt his left shoulder and did not hit a home run from May 1 to May 27, the Sox took a nose dive and went 8-14. Gordon and Hanley play the same position and yet contribute in such different manners to their team's success, kind of like Yaz and Dunn (my have-heartened attempt to get back on topic because I wanted to rant for a little).
- In 2004, Adam Dunn hit 46 home runs for the Cincinnati Reds, but he also stuck out 195 times and had a K% of 28.6%. Of the 136 single-seasons in which a player tagged at least 45 home runs, only four ever had a K% as high as Dunn. In 2001 with the Indians, Jim Thome hit 49 home runs, but had a K% of 28.7%. Ryan Howard blasted 47 homers in 2007 with the Phillies, but his K% was 30.7% that year. In 2013, Chris Davis hit 53 home runs for the Orioles, but also had a K% of 29.6% because of his 199 strikeouts.
- A team is going to take a season where a guy can give you 45-50 home runs, regardless if his strikeout totals range from 170 to 200 K's. Dunn's all-or-nothing approach made him a threat to go long every time he was at the plate.
- Some of the all-time baseball greats have had historic home run seasons, but unlike Dunn, they did so without a high strikeout rate. There have been 10 players in MLB history to hit at least 45 home runs in a season and to also have a K% of 10% or below.
- In 1930, Babe Ruth hit 49 homers and had a K% of 9.0% and in 1931 he hit 46 HR and had a 7.7 K%.
- Lou Gehrig had three such seasons when he hit 46 homers in 1931, 49 home runs in 1934, and 49 homers in 1936 while having a 7.6 K%, an incredible 4.5 K% (he stroke out only 31 times the entire season), and a 6.4 K% in those respective years.
- Joe DiMaggio hit 46 homers and had a 5.3 K% in 1937 and in 1947 Johnny Mize blasted 51 homers and had a 6.3 K%.
- Ted Kluszewski, the worst player to accomplish the feat, had two such seasons when he hit 49 homers in 1954 and 47 home runs in 1955 while having a 5.3 K% and 5.8 K% in those years respectively.
- In 1955, Willie Mays hit 51 homers and had a 9.0 K%, in 1961 Roger Maris hit 61 long balls and had a 9.6 K%, and Ralph Kiner hit 54 homers and had a 9.1 K% in 1964.
- More recently, Barry Bonds had 46 homers and a 7.7 K% in 2002 and 45 homers and a 6.6 K% in 2004, and Albert Pujols had three such seasons when he hit 46 homers in 2004, 49 home runs in 2006, and 49 homers again in 2009 while having a 7.5 K%, 7.9 K%, and a 9.1 K% in those respective years.
- In 2012, Adam Dunn stroke out 222 times for the Chicago White Sox in 539 at-bats, the second most in a single-season in MLB history behind only Mark Reynolds's 223 strikeout year in 2009 with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Dunn stroke out on 41.1% of his official at-bats, but he still hit 41 homers, which gave him a rate of home run per every 13.1 at-bats (8th best in White Sox history)! That number actually set a White Sox record for most homers in a season by a left-handed hitter, and was only behind Albert Belle (49 in 1998), Jermaine Dye (44 in 2006), Frank Thomas (43 in 2000 and 42 in 2003), and Jim Thome (42 in 2006) for most home runs in a single-season in franchise history. If that doesn't tell the story of Adam Dunn's career, I'm not sure what does.
- In that wild season, where Dunn struck out more than Armie Hammer at the box office, he had 3 different games with 4 strike outs and 20 games with at least 3 strikeouts.
- In 17 years with the Yankees, Lou Gehrig never stroke out four times in a game. In 2,164 career games, Gehrig only had 13 games where he struck out 3 times at the plat/ including only one such game over his final 7 complete seasons from 1932 to 1938. He did so while also hitting 493 career home runs and leading the league in home runs three different times (1931, 1934, and 1936).
- Mel Ott played in the majors for 22 years with the New York Giants, and he had just 8 career games with 3 strikeouts out of 2,730 career outings. In 1930, Ott had just 3 games with 2 or more strikeouts in 148 starts (for perspective, you could have penciled Dunn in for at least 2 K's a game in 2012 because he did so in an astounding 65 contests).
- Only once in his entire career did Tony Gwynn have a three strikeout game for the San Diego Padres (it came in 1986 against the Dodgers and Bob Welch).
- While Ted Williams may be "The Greatest Hitter Who Ever Lived," Stan Musial is damn close, especially when you consider that he hit 475 home runs while NEVER striking-out. In 1943, Stan came to the plate 700 times and struck out just 18 times in route to one of his 3 MVP's with the St. Louis Cardinals. His absurdly low strikeout rate makes Dunn's constant swinging and missing look that much worse, like how Armie Hammer must have felt worse after the The Lone Ranger get crushed by Despicable Me 2 at the box office.
- Adam Dunn came to the dish 8,328 times during his career and in those plate appearances, he hit 462 home runs, stroke out 2,379 times, and recorded 1,317 walks (he led the league in walks in 2008 with the Reds and Diamondbacks and in 2012 with the White Sox). Of Dunn's 8,328 career plate appearances, his at-bats finished without the fielders coming into play and not involving the defensive team other than the pitcher and catcher 4,158 times (stat geeks argue that pitchers do not have control over balls put into play and therefore the three true outcomes (TTO) are the best way to measure their performance). Dunn's career TTO% of 49.9% is the highest in the history of baseball (for context the league TTO% has typically been anywhere from 25% to 30% over the last half decade, and it be increasing with the recent league-wide spike in home runs and strikeouts).
- The highest team three true outcomes percentage for a single-season came in 2010 with the Arizona Diamondbacks, which had a club TTO% of 37.11% with batters like Mark Reynolds and Adam LaRoche.
- Rob Deer, the man the stat was originally designed for, had a career TTO of 49.1% while Jim Thome had a 47.6% career TTO, and Mickey Mantle had a 40.2% career TTO. Dunn's TTO sum is the highest in MLB history, and his 2012 season where his TTO% was 56.83% ranks behind only two Jack Cust seasons in 2007 and 2008 when the left-handed hitter's TTO% was 58.19% and 57.02% in two seasons with the A's.
- Since the three true outcomes deemphasize contact hitters because "TTO hitters" get on base through walks rather than constantly putting the ball into play, hitters with low strike out numbers, and typically lower home run numbers, have some absurdly low TTO's.
- Not including this season with the Miami Marlins because the year is still ongoing, Ichiro came to the plate 9,663 times from 2001 to 2014, and he had a TTO sum over that period of 1,646 (112 home runs, 944 strikeouts, and 565 walks). Thus, Ichiro's TTO% over his first 14 seasons was just 17.0%.
- Going further back, Ty Cobb came to the plate 13,084 times during his 24-year career with the Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Athletics and he had a TTO sum of 2,047 (117 home runs, 681 strikeouts, and 1,249 walks), which means that his career TTO% was 14.8% compared to Adam Dunn's 49.9 TTO%!
Wednesday, April 15, 2015
Telling It All Podcast - American League East Preview
Topics Include: Red Sox Season Preview (2:00), Yankees Season Preview (13:45).
Topics Include: Orioles Season Preview (1:50), Blue Jays Season Preview (6:30),
Rays Season Preview (9:45)
SoundCloud Podcast Homepage: https://soundcloud.com/ctellallsports
Topics Include: Orioles Season Preview (1:50), Blue Jays Season Preview (6:30),
Rays Season Preview (9:45)
SoundCloud Podcast Homepage: https://soundcloud.com/ctellallsports
Thursday, April 2, 2015
NBA Regular Season Quick Facts
With the NBA post-season quickly approaching, it is time to look back and reflect on one of the more intriguing regular seasons we have seen from the association over the past decade. While the league's lengthy 82 game season often gets knocked by the public for being too long, forcing too many teams to play on back-to-back nights, or subjecting fans to the abhorrent Philadelphia 76ers tanking (love live Sam Hinkie and his 82 second-round draft picks over the next seven years), this has been by far one of the most captivating NBA seasons in recent memory because of all the different appealing storylines across the country (ok, so maybe only in the Western Conference since the East makes the NFC south look competitive). As much as America loved to hate on the Heat, by year four of the LeBron-DWade-Bosh big three, they no longer wore a villainous cloak to the general public outside of maybe Skip Bayless, and the league lost a lot of its regular season excitement last year since everybody was just waiting on the Heat-Spurs NBA Finals rematch. For as much as the regular season is itself a completely different entity from the post-season and teams certainly need a completely different gear come May and June (just ask the Thibs Bulls), we learned a whole heck of a lot from the NBA slate this season.
We discovered that David Blatt is the biggest copy-cat since Pharell and Robin Thicke. We confirmed that Anthony Bennett may forever be associated with the likes of LaRue Martin, Michael Olowokandi, Kent Benson, Mark Workman, and Bill McGill as some of the worst top overall picks in NBA history (I still can't believe I was a prisoner of the moment and overreacted to him looking in shape in Summer League and said he would improve this year). We learned that Phil Jackson is not a very good General Manager (re-signed Carmelo for a 129 million dollar deal when they have nothing to put around him and will pay him in the 20 million dollar range until he is in his mid-30's; traded Tyson Chandler, who in 2012 was third team All-NBA and won Defensive Player of the Year, and Raymond Felton's gun for the undersized Shane Larkin, Wayne Elligton, Samuel Dalembert, the corpse of Jose Calderon, and no draft picks when the 76ers got a protected first rounder for JaVale McGee and so did the Hawks for Adrian Payne; and then dealt J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert for essentially two trade exceptions and a second round pick despite Shumpert once being on the block for multiple first round picks). We have just begun to understand how dominate of a rim protector Rudy Gobert is for the Utah Jazz, but we may never understand just how Russell Westbrook broke his face and then came back on the court like nothing had happened. We also witnessed Klay Thompson go for 37 points in the third quarter of a game against the Sacramento Kings. Sadly, though we also had to watch the unfortunate death of Jason Smith on behalf of DeAndre "Wilt" Jordan (yes, I am going way too far with that, so maybe DeAndre "Thurmond" Jordan). Here are some crazy, amazing, insane, insert any other synonym here, notes about the 2014-2015 NBA season.
James Harden's Ability To Get To The Free Throw Line:
Anybody who has watched the Houston Rockets extensively this season knows that James Harden is having one of the best seasons in recent NBA history, and certainly in franchise history (up there with Hakeem's MVP season in 1994 or Moses's years in the early 1980's). But Harden's game is not the most aesthetically pleasing thing to watch on the planet, unlike a Chris Paul or Steph Curry. Harden does all of these herky-jerky side-steps and quick shifts of his body to get his defender off balance and free himself for a three pointer or a drive past his man to the rack. He is by far the best in the NBA at stopping and starting on the bounce, as his constant hesitations with the ball make it so difficult to know when he is pulling up or when he is going to go to the hole. Unlike John Wall, who can sometimes get caught playing at one pace, Harden is able to accelerate past defenders because he slows them down with all of his deceptive movements and dribbling. And the strange thing about the star shooting guard is that he is as repetitive as the plots of all the Fast and Furious movies because if you watch him closely, he has much less variety in his offensive game than a player like Westbrook, LeBron, or even DeMar Derozan (Harden's shot chart is entirely threes and layups in very Houston like fashion, as nearly 70 percent of his field goal attempts are at the rim or threes. In comparison, around 53 percent of Westbrook's shots are threes or at the rim). However, his quick body movements allow him to maneuver around defenders and his shiftiness prevents them from knowing which way he is going. Harden also has that incredibly crafty euro-step when he is going to the rim, which allows him at 6-5 to finish so easily at the rim against the trees, as only Westbrook has more transition points than Harden this season.
Now, looking at the numbers, Harden gets to the free throw line an absurd number of times for the Rockets, whose offense has basically become predicated on the charity strike (the Bulls and Clippers are the only other playoff teams that shoot more free throws than Houston, which makes sense since LA complains at the officials the entire game). Harden attempts over 10 free throws per game, which only LeBron James (2008, 2010), Kevin Durant (2010), Dwight Howard (2008-2009, 2011-2012), and the anomaly that is Kevin Martin (2009) have done over the past 8 years in the league. And unlike Dwight, Harden is a terrific free throw shooter at around 87 percent, so when he goes to the line, Houston is getting nearly 2 points per their possessions. Harden's 8.8 free throw makes per game have only been topped by Allen Iverson (2006), Kevin Martin (2009), and Kevin Durant (2010) since 1989.
Look with me, for example, at Harden's stretch since the All-Star break. The beard has only shot over 50 percent from the field once in his last 21 games, and yet, over that time span, he is averaging 28 points per game, which includes a 50 point game against the Nuggets, a 44 point showing versus the Pacers, and a 51 point game versus Sacramento (he missed one game in March against Atlanta due to suspension after kicking LeBron in the groin). The obvious answer to how he is putting up such monster numbers when he is not even shooting well from the floor is his ability to get to the free throw line so often. Since the break, Harden has had 16 games with double-digit free throw attempts, which allows him to score in bunches even when he is struggling to find his outside rhythm. There is not another player in the NBA, aside from maybe Westbrook, that could shoot 12 of 27 from the floor with only 4 three pointers and still score 50 points in a game like Harden did against Denver. In that game, he got to the free throw line 25 times and made 22 of them, making him just the 4th player in NBA history to score 50 points in a game with 12 field goals or less (Adrian Dantley in 1980, Willie Burton in 1994, and Kevin Martin in 2009 the others). It was also the most free throws made in a NBA game since back in December of 2013 when Harden himself accomplished the same feat against Memphis and joined Charles Barkley as the only players in NBA history to score more than 25 points in a game on 2 field goals or less. When people say that getting to the free throw line is not a skill, they are as misconstrued as Brian Shaw was with the Nuggets. While all of Harden's shifting and dancing with his in-between the legs back and forth dribble may seem unnecessary, he knows exactly how to attack a defender and get them to foul him as he is going up. It takes a lot of dexterity and understanding of defender's tendencies to constantly draw fouls game after game, and Harden does it better than anybody since Adrian Dantley. Kevin McHale must be saying, "keep going to that well Larry, I mean James."
I feel like I have to add this really quickly, but Harden also has to be recognized for the fact that his trade essentially changed the entire philosophy of NBA front offices. Daryl Morey stockpiled assets for three years (getting a first rounder for Battier and Ishmael Smith, acquiring a first rounder in the Brooks-Dragic trade, shipping Budinger for a first rounder) and then was lucky enough that the Thunder bailed on Harden way too early and then let him go for so much less than his true value. Now, every team in the NBA looks at trades much less from an individual trade value basis (am I getting the better end of this specific deal), but from the perspective of acquiring enough assets overall to either make a big time move or have enough drafts slots where eventually one of them will fall into the high lottery to get a possible future superstar. So, the next time that Harden is at the line or doing his little cooking and stirring the pot thing, NBA fans can thank him for the league's drive to continually acquire assets, except for Billy King of the Brooklyn Nets of course.
Harden has done all this despite the fact that Dwight Howard has missed 40 games this year, Terrence Jones has been in and out of the lineup (now out for the season with a collapsed lung), Patrick Beverley now out for the season with a wrist injury, and the Rockets even added Josh Smith, which is not really all that of a good thing. There has not been a player more valuable to his team than James Harden this season, who has basically single handedly brought them his team up to second place with the Memphis Grizzlies (a very important spot to possibly avoid the Spurs in the first round if they do not pass the Clippers and end up with the six seed).
Drayman Green Needs To Be Getting Even More Praise:
I know what you are thinking: why would a guy that is already being considered for NBA Most Improved Player (with Jimmy Butler and possibly Donatas Motiejunas) and Defensive Player of the Year (with Anthony Davis, DeAndre Jordan, and maybe Rudy Gobert) need any more national acclaim. The answer to that question is because he is the glue to a Golden State Warriors team that is truly having a historic NBA regular season. If Golden State finishes the season with a 7-1 record, they would join the 1973 Boston Celtics, the 1967 Philadelphia 76ers, the 1997 Chicago Bulls, the 1972 Los Angeles Lakers, and the 1996 Chicago Bulls, as the only teams in NBA history to win at least 68 games in a season. In sports, we often overestimate the difficulty of going from sub-par to good, but we underrate just how hard it is to go from good to historically great. While Steph is obviously the Warriors best player, Klay is the perfect complement that every great star needs, Bogut is the team's interior defender, Iguodala has excelled in his role coming off the bench, and Marreese Speights may have been the best role player acquisition in free agency, Green is the energy guy that holds the entire team together like Happy Hairston on that 72 Lakers team or Paul Silas on the 73 Celtics squad.
There are a wide range of views from fans on how to evaluate the significance of an energy guy or glue guy, but Draymond Green's role as the heart and soul of the Warriors cannot be understated. Steph, Klay, Harrison Barnes, Bogut, and David Lee are all clearly really gifted players, but none of them are going to get in the opponents face or physically go right after each and every guy that attempts to guard them. Green brings a toughness to the Warriors that they just do not have anywhere else on the basketball court. Aside from all the very tangible things he brings to their team, he is a guy that sets the tone for the entire club because of his uncompromising relentlessness. As much as Draymond benefits from open jump shots because of the creativity of Steph and Klay and all the attention paid to their three point shooting (he attempts nearly 6 shots per game without a defender within 4 feet of him), the Splash Brothers equally rely on Green to provide Golden State with an unrelenting toughness that really cannot be measured, even by the greatness of SportVU.
Green's biggest impact on the Warriors has been on the defensive end of the floor, where they lead the league in defensive efficiency and opponent floor percentage. Despite making two Final Fours with Michigan State, and being one of two Spartans along with Greg Kesler to finish their careers with more than 1,500 points and 1,000 rebounds, Green was not taken until the 2nd round of the 2012 NBA draft (30 picks behind Thomas Robinson and 19 picks after Royce White) because he did not have a definite position (the knock on him was he was too slow to be a small forward but not big enough at 6-7 to be a power forward). However, Green's versatility and ability to play so many different positions on the floor has actually allowed him more success than anything with the Warriors. Golden State loves to switch screens under Steve Kerr and Green's combination of quickness and toughness allows him to guard basically any position on the floor at any time. Green ranks 2nd in the league in defensive rating at 96.3 and leads the league in defensive win shares at 4.9 because he can step out and guard wing players but still guard the post and rebound with other big men. In fact, Green's defended field goal percentage, which measures "the field goal percentage of the opponent when the player is defending the shot" according to SportVU, is all the way down at an impressive 28.4% on three point attempts (in comparison, that number is at 34.7% for Blake Griffin). Green provides so much versatility for the Warriors that they have even played him at the five this season along with Curry, Klay, Barnes, and Iggy, which allows them to pull their opponents away from the basket since they can all put up the three ball offensively.
The Atlanta Hawks - Not The Best Five But The Best Five That Fit Together:
Here is an interesting thought experiment: would you rather have a starting five of Chris Paul, JJ Redick, Matt Barnes, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan or a team composed of Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver, DeMarre Carroll, Paul Millsap, and Al Horford. On an individual player basis, the Clippers have a pretty distinct advantage over Atlanta because Chris Paul and Blake Griffin would certainly be the best two players on the floor at all times if these two teams faced off in a playoff series. However, as a collective unit, the Hawks are far more threatening of an opposition on both ends of the floor than LA. While people are so often concerned with a team's best five, it is much more important to figure out the best five players that can play together and maximizes each of their talents by fitting as a cohesive unit. It seems so simplistic, but the best individual parts do not necessarily make the best whole unit. When Blake Griffin was out in late February and early March, the Clippers went a respectable 9-6 despite a very difficult stretch of games because Blake was no longer clogging up the middle of the lane and taking space away from DeAndre. Theoretically, the Clippers should have went on a skid after losing a top 10 NBA player, but their team dynamics completely shifted based upon the overall unit on the floor. The Atlanta Hawks have established an incredible synergy amongst their team where the whole is truly so much more important than the sum of its part.
After going 38-44 last season and exiting the playoffs after a tough 7 game series against Indiana, the Hawks have pulled off something really special in 2015, especially after you consider that Vegas had their pre-season win total projection at 40.5, the same number as the New York Knicks and Denver Nuggets. I think some people are getting a little carried away with the "the Hawks only have as much talent as the Milwaukee Bucks and just are an incredible example of what teamwork can do to an average group of individuals narrative." Jeff Teague is a top 10 NBA point guard (my order based upon who I would want to have in a 7 game playoff series right now would be Steph Curry, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Kyrie Irving, Tony Parker, Damian Lillard, John Wall, Mike Conley, Kyle Lowry, and Jeff Teague), Dennis Schroder is one of the league's best backup point guards, Kyle Korver is the best shooter in the NBA, Paul Millsap is a top 7 NBA power forward and is only getting paid 9.5 million dollars a year (in comparison, Carlos Boozer is making 16.8 million this year), and people forget just how smart and fundamentally sound Al Horford is as a player because he only played in 29 games last year. With those core group of guys, based on talent alone, Atlanta was always going to be a playoff team. However, their ability to play together has led them all the way up to the top seed in the Eastern Conference and a 56-19 record.
After a middle career swoon, especially in his final year in Utah when C.J. Miles of all people was taking away his minutes, Kyle Korver has had a career resurgence in Atlanta. His ability to space the floor and just be a deadly catch and shoot guy (he hits 2.7 threes per game without taking a dribble on the shot) has allowed the Hawks to exploit any defense that attempts to over-help on Millsap or Horford. Korver also understand his role on the floor (73 percent of his points come from behind the arc), and he is so good at running to the corner on fast-breaks or taking a dribble handoff and immediately shooting with his quick release off the exchange. Also, unlike so many other prolific pure shooters like an Anthony Morrow, Korver is 6-7 and not a complete defensive liability. He also is fortunate enough to have the versatile and long DeMarre Carroll alongside him to guard the opposing team's best perimeter player, so when they play Toronto, for example, Carroll can chase around DeRozan and Korver can guard the less dynamic Terrence Ross. The Hawks terrific ball movement across all of their positions, especially from Horford in the post (the second best passing big in the league aside from Marc Gasol), allows them to the best ensemble since the cast of Pulp Fiction (Travolta, Samuel L. Jackson, Bruce Willis, Uma Thurman, Ving Rhames, Christopher Walken, Tim Roth, Rosanna Arquette, Eric Stoltz).
We discovered that David Blatt is the biggest copy-cat since Pharell and Robin Thicke. We confirmed that Anthony Bennett may forever be associated with the likes of LaRue Martin, Michael Olowokandi, Kent Benson, Mark Workman, and Bill McGill as some of the worst top overall picks in NBA history (I still can't believe I was a prisoner of the moment and overreacted to him looking in shape in Summer League and said he would improve this year). We learned that Phil Jackson is not a very good General Manager (re-signed Carmelo for a 129 million dollar deal when they have nothing to put around him and will pay him in the 20 million dollar range until he is in his mid-30's; traded Tyson Chandler, who in 2012 was third team All-NBA and won Defensive Player of the Year, and Raymond Felton's gun for the undersized Shane Larkin, Wayne Elligton, Samuel Dalembert, the corpse of Jose Calderon, and no draft picks when the 76ers got a protected first rounder for JaVale McGee and so did the Hawks for Adrian Payne; and then dealt J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert for essentially two trade exceptions and a second round pick despite Shumpert once being on the block for multiple first round picks). We have just begun to understand how dominate of a rim protector Rudy Gobert is for the Utah Jazz, but we may never understand just how Russell Westbrook broke his face and then came back on the court like nothing had happened. We also witnessed Klay Thompson go for 37 points in the third quarter of a game against the Sacramento Kings. Sadly, though we also had to watch the unfortunate death of Jason Smith on behalf of DeAndre "Wilt" Jordan (yes, I am going way too far with that, so maybe DeAndre "Thurmond" Jordan). Here are some crazy, amazing, insane, insert any other synonym here, notes about the 2014-2015 NBA season.
James Harden's Ability To Get To The Free Throw Line:
Anybody who has watched the Houston Rockets extensively this season knows that James Harden is having one of the best seasons in recent NBA history, and certainly in franchise history (up there with Hakeem's MVP season in 1994 or Moses's years in the early 1980's). But Harden's game is not the most aesthetically pleasing thing to watch on the planet, unlike a Chris Paul or Steph Curry. Harden does all of these herky-jerky side-steps and quick shifts of his body to get his defender off balance and free himself for a three pointer or a drive past his man to the rack. He is by far the best in the NBA at stopping and starting on the bounce, as his constant hesitations with the ball make it so difficult to know when he is pulling up or when he is going to go to the hole. Unlike John Wall, who can sometimes get caught playing at one pace, Harden is able to accelerate past defenders because he slows them down with all of his deceptive movements and dribbling. And the strange thing about the star shooting guard is that he is as repetitive as the plots of all the Fast and Furious movies because if you watch him closely, he has much less variety in his offensive game than a player like Westbrook, LeBron, or even DeMar Derozan (Harden's shot chart is entirely threes and layups in very Houston like fashion, as nearly 70 percent of his field goal attempts are at the rim or threes. In comparison, around 53 percent of Westbrook's shots are threes or at the rim). However, his quick body movements allow him to maneuver around defenders and his shiftiness prevents them from knowing which way he is going. Harden also has that incredibly crafty euro-step when he is going to the rim, which allows him at 6-5 to finish so easily at the rim against the trees, as only Westbrook has more transition points than Harden this season.
Now, looking at the numbers, Harden gets to the free throw line an absurd number of times for the Rockets, whose offense has basically become predicated on the charity strike (the Bulls and Clippers are the only other playoff teams that shoot more free throws than Houston, which makes sense since LA complains at the officials the entire game). Harden attempts over 10 free throws per game, which only LeBron James (2008, 2010), Kevin Durant (2010), Dwight Howard (2008-2009, 2011-2012), and the anomaly that is Kevin Martin (2009) have done over the past 8 years in the league. And unlike Dwight, Harden is a terrific free throw shooter at around 87 percent, so when he goes to the line, Houston is getting nearly 2 points per their possessions. Harden's 8.8 free throw makes per game have only been topped by Allen Iverson (2006), Kevin Martin (2009), and Kevin Durant (2010) since 1989.
Look with me, for example, at Harden's stretch since the All-Star break. The beard has only shot over 50 percent from the field once in his last 21 games, and yet, over that time span, he is averaging 28 points per game, which includes a 50 point game against the Nuggets, a 44 point showing versus the Pacers, and a 51 point game versus Sacramento (he missed one game in March against Atlanta due to suspension after kicking LeBron in the groin). The obvious answer to how he is putting up such monster numbers when he is not even shooting well from the floor is his ability to get to the free throw line so often. Since the break, Harden has had 16 games with double-digit free throw attempts, which allows him to score in bunches even when he is struggling to find his outside rhythm. There is not another player in the NBA, aside from maybe Westbrook, that could shoot 12 of 27 from the floor with only 4 three pointers and still score 50 points in a game like Harden did against Denver. In that game, he got to the free throw line 25 times and made 22 of them, making him just the 4th player in NBA history to score 50 points in a game with 12 field goals or less (Adrian Dantley in 1980, Willie Burton in 1994, and Kevin Martin in 2009 the others). It was also the most free throws made in a NBA game since back in December of 2013 when Harden himself accomplished the same feat against Memphis and joined Charles Barkley as the only players in NBA history to score more than 25 points in a game on 2 field goals or less. When people say that getting to the free throw line is not a skill, they are as misconstrued as Brian Shaw was with the Nuggets. While all of Harden's shifting and dancing with his in-between the legs back and forth dribble may seem unnecessary, he knows exactly how to attack a defender and get them to foul him as he is going up. It takes a lot of dexterity and understanding of defender's tendencies to constantly draw fouls game after game, and Harden does it better than anybody since Adrian Dantley. Kevin McHale must be saying, "keep going to that well Larry, I mean James."
I feel like I have to add this really quickly, but Harden also has to be recognized for the fact that his trade essentially changed the entire philosophy of NBA front offices. Daryl Morey stockpiled assets for three years (getting a first rounder for Battier and Ishmael Smith, acquiring a first rounder in the Brooks-Dragic trade, shipping Budinger for a first rounder) and then was lucky enough that the Thunder bailed on Harden way too early and then let him go for so much less than his true value. Now, every team in the NBA looks at trades much less from an individual trade value basis (am I getting the better end of this specific deal), but from the perspective of acquiring enough assets overall to either make a big time move or have enough drafts slots where eventually one of them will fall into the high lottery to get a possible future superstar. So, the next time that Harden is at the line or doing his little cooking and stirring the pot thing, NBA fans can thank him for the league's drive to continually acquire assets, except for Billy King of the Brooklyn Nets of course.
Harden has done all this despite the fact that Dwight Howard has missed 40 games this year, Terrence Jones has been in and out of the lineup (now out for the season with a collapsed lung), Patrick Beverley now out for the season with a wrist injury, and the Rockets even added Josh Smith, which is not really all that of a good thing. There has not been a player more valuable to his team than James Harden this season, who has basically single handedly brought them his team up to second place with the Memphis Grizzlies (a very important spot to possibly avoid the Spurs in the first round if they do not pass the Clippers and end up with the six seed).
Drayman Green Needs To Be Getting Even More Praise:
I know what you are thinking: why would a guy that is already being considered for NBA Most Improved Player (with Jimmy Butler and possibly Donatas Motiejunas) and Defensive Player of the Year (with Anthony Davis, DeAndre Jordan, and maybe Rudy Gobert) need any more national acclaim. The answer to that question is because he is the glue to a Golden State Warriors team that is truly having a historic NBA regular season. If Golden State finishes the season with a 7-1 record, they would join the 1973 Boston Celtics, the 1967 Philadelphia 76ers, the 1997 Chicago Bulls, the 1972 Los Angeles Lakers, and the 1996 Chicago Bulls, as the only teams in NBA history to win at least 68 games in a season. In sports, we often overestimate the difficulty of going from sub-par to good, but we underrate just how hard it is to go from good to historically great. While Steph is obviously the Warriors best player, Klay is the perfect complement that every great star needs, Bogut is the team's interior defender, Iguodala has excelled in his role coming off the bench, and Marreese Speights may have been the best role player acquisition in free agency, Green is the energy guy that holds the entire team together like Happy Hairston on that 72 Lakers team or Paul Silas on the 73 Celtics squad.
There are a wide range of views from fans on how to evaluate the significance of an energy guy or glue guy, but Draymond Green's role as the heart and soul of the Warriors cannot be understated. Steph, Klay, Harrison Barnes, Bogut, and David Lee are all clearly really gifted players, but none of them are going to get in the opponents face or physically go right after each and every guy that attempts to guard them. Green brings a toughness to the Warriors that they just do not have anywhere else on the basketball court. Aside from all the very tangible things he brings to their team, he is a guy that sets the tone for the entire club because of his uncompromising relentlessness. As much as Draymond benefits from open jump shots because of the creativity of Steph and Klay and all the attention paid to their three point shooting (he attempts nearly 6 shots per game without a defender within 4 feet of him), the Splash Brothers equally rely on Green to provide Golden State with an unrelenting toughness that really cannot be measured, even by the greatness of SportVU.
Green's biggest impact on the Warriors has been on the defensive end of the floor, where they lead the league in defensive efficiency and opponent floor percentage. Despite making two Final Fours with Michigan State, and being one of two Spartans along with Greg Kesler to finish their careers with more than 1,500 points and 1,000 rebounds, Green was not taken until the 2nd round of the 2012 NBA draft (30 picks behind Thomas Robinson and 19 picks after Royce White) because he did not have a definite position (the knock on him was he was too slow to be a small forward but not big enough at 6-7 to be a power forward). However, Green's versatility and ability to play so many different positions on the floor has actually allowed him more success than anything with the Warriors. Golden State loves to switch screens under Steve Kerr and Green's combination of quickness and toughness allows him to guard basically any position on the floor at any time. Green ranks 2nd in the league in defensive rating at 96.3 and leads the league in defensive win shares at 4.9 because he can step out and guard wing players but still guard the post and rebound with other big men. In fact, Green's defended field goal percentage, which measures "the field goal percentage of the opponent when the player is defending the shot" according to SportVU, is all the way down at an impressive 28.4% on three point attempts (in comparison, that number is at 34.7% for Blake Griffin). Green provides so much versatility for the Warriors that they have even played him at the five this season along with Curry, Klay, Barnes, and Iggy, which allows them to pull their opponents away from the basket since they can all put up the three ball offensively.
The Atlanta Hawks - Not The Best Five But The Best Five That Fit Together:
Here is an interesting thought experiment: would you rather have a starting five of Chris Paul, JJ Redick, Matt Barnes, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan or a team composed of Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver, DeMarre Carroll, Paul Millsap, and Al Horford. On an individual player basis, the Clippers have a pretty distinct advantage over Atlanta because Chris Paul and Blake Griffin would certainly be the best two players on the floor at all times if these two teams faced off in a playoff series. However, as a collective unit, the Hawks are far more threatening of an opposition on both ends of the floor than LA. While people are so often concerned with a team's best five, it is much more important to figure out the best five players that can play together and maximizes each of their talents by fitting as a cohesive unit. It seems so simplistic, but the best individual parts do not necessarily make the best whole unit. When Blake Griffin was out in late February and early March, the Clippers went a respectable 9-6 despite a very difficult stretch of games because Blake was no longer clogging up the middle of the lane and taking space away from DeAndre. Theoretically, the Clippers should have went on a skid after losing a top 10 NBA player, but their team dynamics completely shifted based upon the overall unit on the floor. The Atlanta Hawks have established an incredible synergy amongst their team where the whole is truly so much more important than the sum of its part.
After going 38-44 last season and exiting the playoffs after a tough 7 game series against Indiana, the Hawks have pulled off something really special in 2015, especially after you consider that Vegas had their pre-season win total projection at 40.5, the same number as the New York Knicks and Denver Nuggets. I think some people are getting a little carried away with the "the Hawks only have as much talent as the Milwaukee Bucks and just are an incredible example of what teamwork can do to an average group of individuals narrative." Jeff Teague is a top 10 NBA point guard (my order based upon who I would want to have in a 7 game playoff series right now would be Steph Curry, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Kyrie Irving, Tony Parker, Damian Lillard, John Wall, Mike Conley, Kyle Lowry, and Jeff Teague), Dennis Schroder is one of the league's best backup point guards, Kyle Korver is the best shooter in the NBA, Paul Millsap is a top 7 NBA power forward and is only getting paid 9.5 million dollars a year (in comparison, Carlos Boozer is making 16.8 million this year), and people forget just how smart and fundamentally sound Al Horford is as a player because he only played in 29 games last year. With those core group of guys, based on talent alone, Atlanta was always going to be a playoff team. However, their ability to play together has led them all the way up to the top seed in the Eastern Conference and a 56-19 record.
After a middle career swoon, especially in his final year in Utah when C.J. Miles of all people was taking away his minutes, Kyle Korver has had a career resurgence in Atlanta. His ability to space the floor and just be a deadly catch and shoot guy (he hits 2.7 threes per game without taking a dribble on the shot) has allowed the Hawks to exploit any defense that attempts to over-help on Millsap or Horford. Korver also understand his role on the floor (73 percent of his points come from behind the arc), and he is so good at running to the corner on fast-breaks or taking a dribble handoff and immediately shooting with his quick release off the exchange. Also, unlike so many other prolific pure shooters like an Anthony Morrow, Korver is 6-7 and not a complete defensive liability. He also is fortunate enough to have the versatile and long DeMarre Carroll alongside him to guard the opposing team's best perimeter player, so when they play Toronto, for example, Carroll can chase around DeRozan and Korver can guard the less dynamic Terrence Ross. The Hawks terrific ball movement across all of their positions, especially from Horford in the post (the second best passing big in the league aside from Marc Gasol), allows them to the best ensemble since the cast of Pulp Fiction (Travolta, Samuel L. Jackson, Bruce Willis, Uma Thurman, Ving Rhames, Christopher Walken, Tim Roth, Rosanna Arquette, Eric Stoltz).
Wednesday, April 1, 2015
Steph Curry Destroys Chris Paul
This video is presented to you without comment (except for the comment I just made about presenting this to you without a comment).
Sunday, March 1, 2015
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)