Showing posts with label Chicago White Sox. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chicago White Sox. Show all posts

Friday, May 8, 2015

The Adam Dunn Article

For some random reason, I sat down to watch the Dodgers and Brewers play two night ago on May 6th, particularly because one of my favorite former Red Sox players, Adrian Gonzalez, had started the year off on a tear with 9 home runs and a .364 batting average through his first 26 starts.

And yet, it was a highly touted, baby-faced, lanky 23-year old center field prospect playing for LA, who was thrust into a very important role for the team earlier than expected because of an injury to Yasiel Puig, that caught my eye. That night, he ended up hitting the first multiple home run game of his career on two solo blasts in the 5th and 8th innings. The next night I turned back on the Dodgers game to watch Joc Pederson again and he came to the plate 6 times, struck out 3 times, and walked on 2 other occasions.

This has been the theme of Pederson's early rookie season because when he comes to the plate, he either goes yard, strikes out, or takes first on a walk (9 of his first 23 big league hits have been home runs). There is only one man over the past decade who defined his career based upon those three true outcomes and that is the one and only Adam Dunn (the original three true outcome king was Rob Deer).

There is a game that little kids know from Sesame Street called "One of These Things," where Kermit and Susan identify which item does not belong in a group. If I give you Jason Statham, Liam Neeson, Daniel Craig, and Steve Seagal, the name that does not quite fit in for an action movie star is Seagal. How about Charles Barkley, Reggie Miller, Elgin Baylor, and John Havlicek? The answer is Havlicek because he won a NBA Championship. If I gave you Carlos Mesa, Danny Bejarano, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Evo Morales, Bejarano is the one that does not fit (know your Bolivian Presidents guys). If I give you Tom Hanks, Dustin Hoffman, Roberto Benigni, and Jack Nicholson, you know the odd man out would be Benigni because all four won the Academy Award for Best Actor, but only three of them can act.

So when people ask you in terms of home runs which name does not fit between Adam Dunn, Willie McCovey, Duke Snider and Willie Stargell, the answer may surprise you but it is Duke Snider, who is the only one that did not hit at least 460 career home runs (Snider hit 407 with the Dodgers, Mets, and Giants). Dunn's 462 career home runs are in the top 20 for a player over the last 40 years and he hit more long balls than all-time great power hitters like Andre Dawson, Juan Gonzalez, Billy Williams, Al Kaline, and Dale Murphy.

In very Adam Dunn-like manner, he is also third all-time in strikeouts with 2,379 career K's, behind only Reggie Jackson and Jim Thome, and his career K% of 28.6% is the highest for any batter with a minimum of 4,600 career plate appearances. Only one batter could put up those kind of numbers, so long live the unique legacy of Adam Dunn (also, long live the Starks because they are quickly dying out)!

Like most normal Americans, I have been waiting to write an Adam Dunn article for years, hoping that he would eventually get into the 500-home run club and be BY FAR the worst player ever to do so. As I patiently sat at home and fixated over his quickly rising home run numbers, despite his annual 170 strikeout seasons (and that would be a good year for him), I realized that Adam Dunn is a bigger hit or miss character than Ryan Reynolds (I will never forget the horror that was masquerading as the film Green Lantern, never). The "Big Donkey," as he is known around MLB circles, has always fascinated me with his all or nothing approach at the plate, an emphasis on the three true baseball outcomes of homers, strikeouts, and walks, which Joc Pederson is now emulating.

Dunn was incapable of doing anything other than slugging home runs or striking-out with his big, loopy left-handed swing during his 14-year career with the Reds, D-Backs, Nats, White Sox, and A's. His high-risk, high-reward batting style was always put under a microscope because of his astronomical strikeout rates and his failure to drive runners in scoring position home, but he was a guy that was one of baseball's most alluring hitters with his easy power. Only a few names in MLB history can be compared to all-time great power hitters from Ralph Kiner, Hank Greenberg, and Jimmie Foxx to Ken Griffey Jr. and Frank Thomas, but also be aligned with batters like Lee May, Royce Clayton, Mark Reynolds, and Seth Green in terms of empty opportunities at the dish (one of those names may not apply).

Unfortunately, Dunn retired after the Oakland A's loss to the Kansas City Royals in the AL Wild Card Game last year. Despite waiting until May to make see if he would come back for some team to hit homers and strike out in 2015, I think he may just be making cameos in movies like he did in Dallas Buyers Club. Although he fell 38 long balls short of 500, an arbitrary mark anyway, some of his career numbers in terms of only hitting home runs, striking-out, or walking may never be repeated.

Here Are Some Of The Craziest Adam Dunn Stats:
  • Of the 41 hitters in major league history to have hit at least 440 home runs, only Adam Dunn (25.1) and Dave Kingman (20.4) had a career WAR below 42.0. 
    • The only other player to have blasted at least 360 homers and yet still have a career WAR as low as Dunn and Kingman was Joe Carter, who had a career WAR of 17.1. Carter rarely got on base, but he hit 396 long balls during his career, most of them with the Blue Jays after a massive trade between San Diego and Toronto that sent Carter and Roberto Alomar to the Jays and Fred McGriff to the Padres in 1989. Carter's 1993 World Series homer for Toronto made up for all those seasons when his OBP was barely above .300 because he never walked. (Carter is the third coolest guy in Toronto behind the Ford brothers, but definitely ahead of Phil Kessel).
  • From 2010 to 2013, Adam Dunn stroke out 787 times in 2,400 plate appearances. Over the final 15 seasons of his career with the Red Sox from 1969 to 1983, Carl Yastrzemski stroke out a total of 776 times in 8,721 plate appearances, less than Dunn with more than 3.5 times the plate appearances. And yet, Dunn and Yaz sit next to each in other on the all-time home runs list and are 2 of only 40 players in nearly half a century to have a season with an isolated power of .295 or above (Yaz in 1967 when he won the AL MVP and the Triple Crown had a .295 ISO and Dunn had a .303 ISO in 2004). 
    • The beauty of baseball is that different pros can do things in such drastically different manners to help their team win a game. Look at American League left fielders Alex Gordon and Hanley Ramirez.
      • Gordon, who has won four straight Gold Gloves for KC, catches any ball within his zip code. His ultimate zone rating, which according to fangraphs "puts a run value to defense, attempting to quantify how many runs a player saved or gave up through their fielding prowess (or lack thereof)," is the 6th highest in the league (his UZR of 25.0 led the MLB last season). Despite only having a modest slash line of .253/.364/.425 so far in 2015, Gordon is baseball's best left fielder (sorry Matt Holliday) and the most important everyday player on the Royals along with Eric Hosmer and Salvador Perez.
      • Hanley Ramirez may be the worst left fielder to have played the position in some time. He is slowly morphing into Manny Ramirez with his complete ineptitude to play the outfield, but his pure looking, effortless swing that just shoots balls over the monster. The Red Sox rely so heavily on his production at the plate that it is no coincidence that when he hit 10 home runs in April the Sox went a respectable 11-10 and then when he hurt his left shoulder and did not hit a home run from May 1 to May 27, the Sox took a nose dive and went 8-14. Gordon and Hanley play the same position and yet contribute in such different manners to their team's success, kind of like Yaz and Dunn (my have-heartened attempt to get back on topic because I wanted to rant for a little).
  • In 2004, Adam Dunn hit 46 home runs for the Cincinnati Reds, but he also stuck out 195 times and had a K% of 28.6%. Of the 136 single-seasons in which a player tagged at least 45 home runs, only four ever had a K% as high as Dunn. In 2001 with the Indians, Jim Thome hit 49 home runs, but had a K% of 28.7%. Ryan Howard blasted 47 homers in 2007 with the Phillies, but his K% was 30.7% that year. In 2013, Chris Davis hit 53 home runs for the Orioles, but also had a K% of 29.6% because of his 199 strikeouts.
    • A team is going to take a season where a guy can give you 45-50 home runs, regardless if his strikeout totals range from 170 to 200 K's. Dunn's all-or-nothing approach made him a threat to go long every time he was at the plate.
      • Some of the all-time baseball greats have had historic home run seasons, but unlike Dunn, they did so without a high strikeout rate. There have been 10 players in MLB history to hit at least 45 home runs in a season and to also have a K% of 10% or below.
        • In 1930, Babe Ruth hit 49 homers and had a K% of 9.0% and in 1931 he hit 46 HR and had a 7.7 K%.
        • Lou Gehrig had three such seasons when he hit 46 homers in 1931, 49 home runs in 1934, and 49 homers in 1936 while having a 7.6 K%, an incredible 4.5 K% (he stroke out only 31 times the entire season), and a 6.4 K% in those respective years.
        • Joe DiMaggio hit 46 homers and had a 5.3 K% in 1937 and in 1947 Johnny Mize blasted 51 homers and had a 6.3 K%.
        • Ted Kluszewski, the worst player to accomplish the feat, had two such seasons when he hit 49 homers in 1954 and 47 home runs in 1955 while having a 5.3 K% and 5.8 K% in those years respectively.
        • In 1955, Willie Mays hit 51 homers and had a 9.0 K%, in 1961 Roger Maris hit 61 long balls and had a 9.6 K%, and Ralph Kiner hit 54 homers and had a 9.1 K% in 1964.
        • More recently, Barry Bonds had 46 homers and a 7.7 K% in 2002 and 45 homers and a 6.6 K% in 2004, and Albert Pujols had three such seasons when he hit 46 homers in 2004, 49 home runs in 2006, and 49 homers again in 2009 while having a 7.5 K%, 7.9 K%, and a 9.1 K% in those respective years.
  • In 2012, Adam Dunn stroke out 222 times for the Chicago White Sox in 539 at-bats, the second most in a single-season in MLB history behind only Mark Reynolds's 223 strikeout year in 2009 with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Dunn stroke out on 41.1% of his official at-bats, but he still hit 41 homers, which gave him a rate of home run per every 13.1 at-bats (8th best in White Sox history)! That number actually set a White Sox record for most homers in a season by a left-handed hitter, and was only behind Albert Belle (49 in 1998), Jermaine Dye (44 in 2006), Frank Thomas (43 in 2000 and 42 in 2003), and Jim Thome (42 in 2006) for most home runs in a single-season in franchise history. If that doesn't tell the story of Adam Dunn's career, I'm not sure what does.
    • In that wild season, where Dunn struck out more than Armie Hammer at the box office, he had 3 different games with 4 strike outs and 20 games with at least 3 strikeouts.
      • In 17 years with the Yankees, Lou Gehrig never stroke out four times in a game. In 2,164 career games, Gehrig only had 13 games where he struck out 3 times at the plat/  including only one such game over his final 7 complete seasons from 1932 to 1938. He did so while also hitting 493 career home runs and leading the league in home runs three different times (1931, 1934, and 1936).
      • Mel Ott played in the majors for 22 years with the New York Giants, and he had just 8 career games with 3 strikeouts out of 2,730 career outings. In 1930, Ott had just 3 games with 2 or more strikeouts in 148 starts (for perspective, you could have penciled Dunn in for at least 2 K's a game in 2012 because he did so in an astounding 65 contests).
      • Only once in his entire career did Tony Gwynn have a three strikeout game for the San Diego Padres (it came in 1986 against the Dodgers and Bob Welch).
      • While Ted Williams may be "The Greatest Hitter Who Ever Lived," Stan Musial is damn close, especially when you consider that he hit 475 home runs while NEVER striking-out. In 1943, Stan came to the plate 700 times and struck out just 18 times in route to one of his 3 MVP's with the St. Louis Cardinals. His absurdly low strikeout rate makes Dunn's constant swinging and missing look that much worse, like how Armie Hammer must have felt worse after the The Lone Ranger get crushed by Despicable Me 2 at the box office.
  • Adam Dunn came to the dish 8,328 times during his career and in those plate appearances, he hit 462 home runs, stroke out 2,379 times, and recorded 1,317 walks (he led the league in walks in 2008 with the Reds and Diamondbacks and in 2012 with the White Sox). Of Dunn's 8,328 career plate appearances, his at-bats finished without the fielders coming into play and not involving the defensive team other than the pitcher and catcher 4,158 times (stat geeks argue that pitchers do not have control over balls put into play and therefore the three true outcomes (TTO) are the best way to measure their performance). Dunn's career TTO% of 49.9% is the highest in the history of baseball (for context the league TTO% has typically been anywhere from 25% to 30% over the last half decade, and it be increasing with the recent league-wide spike in home runs and strikeouts).
    • The highest team three true outcomes percentage for a single-season came in 2010 with the Arizona Diamondbacks, which had a club TTO% of 37.11% with batters like Mark Reynolds and Adam LaRoche. 
    • Rob Deer, the man the stat was originally designed for, had a career TTO of 49.1% while Jim Thome had a 47.6% career TTO, and Mickey Mantle had a 40.2% career TTO. Dunn's TTO sum is the highest in MLB history, and his 2012 season where his TTO% was 56.83% ranks behind only two Jack Cust seasons in 2007 and 2008 when the left-handed hitter's TTO% was 58.19% and 57.02% in two seasons with the A's.
    • Since the three true outcomes deemphasize contact hitters because "TTO hitters" get on base through walks rather than constantly putting the ball into play, hitters with low strike out numbers, and typically lower home run numbers, have some absurdly low TTO's.
      • Not including this season with the Miami Marlins because the year is still ongoing, Ichiro came to the plate 9,663 times from 2001 to 2014, and he had a TTO sum over that period of 1,646 (112 home runs, 944 strikeouts, and 565 walks). Thus, Ichiro's TTO% over his first 14 seasons was just 17.0%. 
      • Going further back, Ty Cobb came to the plate 13,084 times during his 24-year career with the Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Athletics and he had a TTO sum of 2,047 (117 home runs, 681 strikeouts, and 1,249 walks), which means that his career TTO% was 14.8% compared to Adam Dunn's 49.9 TTO%!

Thursday, August 1, 2013

The Jake Peavy Trade Makes Sense For The Red Sox

"Baseball is a game where you see something new every single day." Most baseball fans have heard this expression a thousand times and while the phase has become somewhat of a cliche, there is no denying the fact that baseball gives its fans some of the most amazing and improbable moments in sports. Events that seem impossible or feats that just sound to absurd to occur can happen at any given time at a ballpark.

You want some examples: a player stealing the same base twice in one inning (Germany Schaefer of the Detroit Tigers in 1908), a triple play without the bat touching the ball (the Seattle Mariners in 2008), two back-to-back home runs by the same two teammates in one inning (Mike Cameron and Bret Boone of the Seattle Mariners in 2002), back-to-back inside the park home runs (Toby Harrah and Bump Wills of the Texas Rangers in 1977), going 0 for 11 in one game (Charlie Pick of the Boston Braves in 1920 in a 26 inning game), get caught stealing four times in one game (Robby Thompson of the San Francisco Giants in 1986), or being a 20-win pitcher on a team that lost more than 100 games (Ned Garver of the St. Louis Browns in 1951 - the Browns won 52 games that year, meaning that Garver won nearly 40 percent of them). And those are just a few of them.

While baseball is certainly a game of inconceivable feats, it is also a sport that is based on patterns, and one of the most common threads amongst playoff teams is a big time move before the trade deadline. In 2011, the St. Louis Cardinals, who eventually went on win the World Series, would not have even made the playoffs if they didn't acquire Rafael Furcal from the Dodgers. Furcal provided defensive stability for a team that committed too many infield errors with Ryan Theroit at shortstop.

Last year, the San Francisco Giants won their second World Series in the last three years largely due to the presence of outfielder Hunter Pence in the lineup, who the Giants acquired in a deadline deal with the Phillies. Not only did Pence help fill the void for the suspended Melky Cabrera, but his bases clearing double in game 7 of the NLCS broke open a 5-run lead against the Cardinals and helped seal the Giants World Series ticket.

This year, the Boston Red Sox, who a year ago had their worst season since they finished 65-89 in 1960, are hoping that their trade deadline deal to acquire former Cy Young winner Jake Peavy will push them over the hump. The trade, which had been discussed for days, was finally able to be completed once the Tigers stepped in and agreed to trade one of their top prospects, Avisail Garcia, to the White Sox. However, the Red Sox had to give up their gifted shortstop Jose Iglesias (to the Tigers) in the process, as you always have to give up a piece in order to improve (unless you're dealing with David Kahn). Overall though, it was a deal the Red Sox had to make and one that will serve them well in the future.

Jake Peavy is by no means the pitcher that he once was with the San Diego Padres. Not only did Peavy benefit from a pitchers ballpark (in Peavy's Cy Young year in 2007, PETCO Park had a park factor of .755, which was by far the most pitcher friendly in the league), but he also had a lot more velocity on his fastball. In 2007, Peavy's average fastball was clocked at 93.9 MPH. However, ever since he underwent surgery in 2010, Peavy's velocity has been greatly diminished, as his average fastball in 2011 with the White Sox was all the way down to 90.4 MPH. In Peavy's prime years with the Padres, like when he had a league best ERA in 2004 (2.27) and 2007 (2.54), the change in speed between his 94-95 MPH fastball and his mid 80's slider made him so effective. However, while a 4-5 MPH difference in fastball velocity may not seem like a lot, it is enough where the difference in speed between the fastball and slider isn't enough to fool hitters anymore. Thus, batters no longer have to worry about getting a fastball blown by them and can sit on the off-speed pitches.

Nonetheless, every MLB pitcher losses velocity as his career goes on (just ask Tim Lincecum and CC Sabathia), and Peavy has begun to figure out how to pitch without blowing the ball past people. While the former Cy Young winner is no longer a number one type pitcher, he is certainly a valuable asset to have in a rotation as a second or third quality pitcher for a potential playoff team like the Red Sox.

Obviously, when a pitcher goes from a last place team to a club that has one of the best records in baseball, it gives them a jolt of energy. However, it is always a concern for teams when a pitcher has been in perennial losing organizations and is not used to the pressure of the postseason or pitching in win or go home games. Despite the fact that in his 12-year career Peavy has pitched in just 2 playoff games, by all accounts, he will have no problem with the tension of a late season race. Peavy is called by some "the bulldog" because of his fearsome and ultra competitive pitching approach, which will fit perfectly in a city like Boston.

Finally, despite some of his struggles the last couple of years, Peavy has looked a lot better on the mound recently, especially since he came off the disabled list. The velocity on his fastball looks improved, as evidenced by his strikeouts per 9 innings rate (8.55) at its the highest its been since 2009. If Peavy can keep his slider down in the zone and limit the number of home runs that opponents hit off him, the Red Sox will have found a starting pitching steal, especially with Clay Buchholz out for an extended period.

Ultimately, transactions in sports are judged not only on how the player you received performs, but on how the player you gave up performs. For example, in 1987 the Detroit Tigers received Doyle Alexander in a trade with the Atlanta Braves for a minor league pitcher that was drafted in the 22nd round, John Smoltz. In the short term, the trade seemed to be a very smart move by Detroit. On the day of the trade (August 12), the Tigers were sitting 1.5 games back of the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East. Following the trade, Detroit went 33-18 and finished the season 2 games ahead of the Blue Jays, in large part because of the impact of Alexander. In 11 starts with Detroit, the right-hander was 9-0 (he won 8 consecutive starts over a month span) and let up 2 or fewer runs in 8 of those starts. Although Alexander was the main reason why the Tigers made the playoffs in 1987, the trade is widely regarded as one of the worst in baseball history because of the career that John Smoltz went on to have in the big leagues. Smoltz is the only pitcher in MLB history to win 200 games and also have 150 career saves and he is one of just 16 pitchers to ever to have 3,000 career strikeouts. And if that wasn't bad enough for the Tigers: Smoltz is considered one of the best postseason pitchers of all-time. His 15 playoffs wins are the second most all-time behind Andy Pettitte and his 199 postseason strikeouts are the most in the history of baseball.

With all that in mind, the type of player that Jose Iglesias turns out to be will greatly effect how people view the Red Sox trade. Iglesias, who is naturally a shortstop but predominately played third base for the Red Sox, is a defensive wizard. With unbelievably smooth hands and some of the quickest reflexes in the game, Iglesias showed his defensive mastery with the Sox right away. Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski said, "This guy [Iglesias] is special, defensively... Somebody that has seen him play just sent me a note and said 'In all my years in the game, the only two defensive shortstops I've seen that are better are Ozzie and Vizquel." While this may seem like a bit of an embellishment from a GM that is happy to have a new infielder, Iglesias is widely regarded around all corners of baseball as already having Hall of Fame defensive skills.

The intriguing part about Iglesias is not that he played outstanding, gold glove caliber defense for the Red Sox (which everybody expected him to do), but that he was actually a productive hitter (which nobody thought he could do after batting .204 to begin the season in AAA). In 63 games with the Red Sox, Iglesias hit .330 and had an on-base percentage of .376. On a team with strikeout victims like Mike Napoli and Jonny Gomes, Iglesias was always making contact, as he struckout on just 12.8 percent of his plate appearances (Iglesias had 30 strikeouts and he came to bat 234 times).

However, it was a very smart move by the Red Sox to sell high on Iglesias because his offensive production has been a bit of an aberration. Iggy has benefited more than any other hitter in the big leagues from fortuitous bounces and infield hits that have just found the right hole. For a batter that hits so many ground balls (55.9 percent of all his hits - which would be the 3rd highest percentage in the AL if he had enough plate appearances to qualify) it is perplexing how Iglesias has reached base on so many grounders. In fact, Iggy's .337 batting average on ground balls is abnormally high for any player. Furthermore, on balls that Iglesias hit in play, his batting average was .376 with the Red Sox, which would be the 4th highest in the entire league if he were qualified for the category. While BABIP can certainly show a players hitting capabilities, it often indicates a hitter's level of fortunate at the plate and shows that Iglesias has been having somewhat of a fluky season.

The Red Sox are also trading away a player in a position of strength within the organization, as Boston is loaded with talent along the left side of the infield. In a league that has a dearth of quality shortstops (when Jhonny Peralta is the best SS in the AL you know things are going poorly), Stephen Drew is a more than reliable middle infielder, as shown by his 4.5 Ultimate Zone Rating (a defensive measure to compare what a player did to what an "average" player would do), which is the 5th best in the AL amongst shortstops. Furthermore, while Will Middlebrooks is currently in AAA, the third baseman was so good in his rookie season that the Sox traded away Kevin Youkilis so that he could play the hot corner every day. In just 75 games last year, Middlebrooks had 15 home runs, 54 RBI's, and a .835 OPS and despite his demotion to Pawtucket, Middlebrooks is still a big part of the Sox future.

But the depth that the Red Sox have at shortstop and third base doesn't even end there. Xander Bogaerts, a 20-year old minor league phenom, is the best prospect in the Red Sox farm system, if not the best prospect in all of baseball (Bogaerts is ranked number 3 overall in Keith Law's top prospects list). Although the Sox still need to figure out whether Bogaerts is going to be a shortstop or a third baseman, one thing is for sure: he is going to be the cornerstone of the Red Sox organization for years to come. Also, while Garin Cecchini is still not ready for the big leagues, he is another third base prospect that is well regarded within the Red Sox organization. Cecchini, who is ranked as the 2nd best prospect in the Sox franchise and the 20th best in all of baseball, is batting .337 this season with both Single-A Salem and Double-A Portland.

Anytime you lose a player with the defensive capabilities of Iglesias, it is a tough pill to swallow. However, with all the talent that the Red Sox have on the left side of the infield and Dustin Pedroia signing an extension through 2021, the Sox were going to have no place for Iglesias. Thus, to get a veteran arm like Peavy, in a rotation that has already lost its best pitcher, the trade was a no-brainer for the Red Sox.

Thursday, June 6, 2013

Frank Thomas and Craig Biggio Should Be Elected To The Baseball Hall of Fame in 2014

The reverence that fans and players hold for the Baseball Hall of Fame is a difficult entity to quantify. While the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, and the Basketball Hall of Fame in Springfield, serve the same function as the Baseball Hall of Fame, which is to recognize the achievements of people in their sport and preserve their history, there is something distinctively special surrounding the aura of Cooperstown. Whether it is the elegance of the museum, the grandeur of the Plaque Gallery, or the rich numbers that characterize the history of baseball, from the "First Class" of Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner, Walter Johnson, and Christy Mathewson to the 2012 Class of Barry Larkin and Ron Santo, the Baseball Hall of Fame has been distinguished as the most lavish and splendid sporting Hall of Fame.

Comparing different ballplayers is a large reason why fans are so enamored with the game, and the Baseball Hall of Fame serves as the representative platform for the judgment and assessment of players' careers. Nonetheless, there is no clear way to determine the merits of a player's Hall of Fame candidacy. According to the Baseball Hall of Fame mission statement, the goal of the museum is "honoring, by enshrinement, those individuals who had exceptional careers, and recognizing others for their significant achievements." Obviously, this statement could not get much broader, which leaves a large area of interpretation for each voter when contemplating Hall of Fame candidates. A common, yet very effective way for people to consider the caliber of a player is by comparing him to other players in the Hall of Fame, and seeing how his career matches up. However, juxtaposing the legacies of players who played different positions, or who competed during different eras, can be quite an onerous task.

For instance, by most accounts, Roger Hornsby is the greatest power hitting second basemen of all-time. The longtime St. Louis Cardinals slugger had three seasons in which he hit more than 26 home runs and racked up a career total of 302 long balls, which is terrific production from a second basemen. Nonetheless, if Hornsby's power numbers were to be compared to for example, outfielder Dale Murphy, they may not look as remarkable since he had 6 seasons of at least 30 home runs, and fell just short of 400 for his career. However, it needs to be remembered that for a middle infielder, Hornsby's numbers are unparalleled since teams typically do not rely on their second basemen for power.

Furthermore, the fact that Hornsby and Murphy played during radically different baseball periods should not be overlooked. When Hornsby was competing from 1915 to 1937, pitchers dominated the game and home run numbers were ridiculously low. In 1918, Tillie Walker and Babe Ruth led the league in homers with just 11. Even as the game progressed, and hitting numbers began to improve, Bill Terry's 20 home runs in 1927, which today would be an average season, were the 6th most in the entire league. In comparison, during Dale Murphy's career from 1976 to 1993, only once did the league leader in home runs hit fewer than 38 long balls. In fact, in 1993, 62 players blasted at least 20 home runs. This proves that while at first glance Murphy may appear to be the more prolific power hitter, considering the position that Hornsby played, and the era in which he played in, his power numbers are much more impressive.

One of the many difficulties in assessing if a player should be in the Baseball Hall of Fame is that a variety of diverse factors, along with a multitude of different numbers, have to be extensively evaluated in order to truly evaluate a hitter or a pitcher's career. The position that he played, the time period he played in, the level of success of his team, the intangibles he brought on the field and in the clubhouse, and how his career compares to other Hall of Famers is all relevant information in terms of a player's chances of making it to Cooperstown.

The 2014 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot will be one of the most interesting selection processes of all-time. In one category are the players that have strong connection to performance-enhancing drugs, like Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, and Rafael Palmeiro. In another category are the comprehensive list of pitchers that are up for selection like Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina, Jack Morris, Lee Smith, and Curt Schilling, all of whom make very compelling Hall of Fame cases. Players like Jeff Bagwell, Mike Piazza, and Tim Raines will also be hoping that their voting numbers will increase from last year. However, of all the batters on the ballot, the only two that deserve to be enshrined in the 2014 class are Frank Thomas and Craig Biggio.

When the best major league hitters since the 1990's are discussed, names like Ken Griffey, Alex Rodriguez, Jim Thome, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Chipper Jones, Albert Pujols, and Manny Ramirez are often tossed around. However, one of the most prolific and efficient hitters of all-time, Frank Thomas, is often overlooked. Nonetheless, the Big Hurt, as he is affectionately known, did enough over the course of his career that he should become the 45th MLB first ballot Hall of Famer, and the first since Rickey Henderson was inducted in his first year on the ballot in 2009.

Frank Thomas is one of the most sublime power hitters in the history of baseball. The Big Hurt's isolated power, which is a measurement of a player's pure power, is indicative of his slugging ability. In 1994, Thomas had a isolated power of 0.376, which was the best in the American League that season and to this day, is the fifth highest for any player in the AL not named Ruth, McGwire, Gehrig, or Foxx. However, the impressive part about Thomas's career is that while he had a few seasons that will go down in baseball lore as some of the best of all-time, he was a very consistent and dependable superstar. In fact, Thomas had a 8-year stretch from 1991 to 1998 where his average isolated power was 0.271, which is exceptionally high. To put that in perspective, Eddie Murray, who was a first ballot Hall of Famer and hit 504 career home runs, had an average isolated power of 0.214 during the best 8-year stretch of his career, from 1980 to 1987, with the Baltimore Orioles. Furthermore, Andre Dawson, who made it into the Hall of Fame in 2010 and hit 438 career home runs, had an average isolated power of 0.215 during the best 8-year stretch of his career from 1984 to 1990. The Big Hurt's numbers compare very favorably with these two Hall of Fame power hitters. Thomas's career isolated power of .255 is the 25th highest all-time, ahead of great power hitters and Hall of Famers like Harmon Killebrew (.252), Hank Aaron (.250), Willie Stargell (.247), Willie McCovey (.245), and Frank Robinson (.243).

Additionally, Thomas's slugging percentage, which is another stat that shows a player's power, depicts why he was one of the most feared hitters in the game during the 1990's and early 2000's. The Big Hurt is one of just 9 players, along with Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Rogers Hornsby, Mark McGwire, Jeff Bagwell, Jimmie Foxx, and Ted Williams, to have a season with a slugging percentage of at least .729, which he did in 1994. Thomas was also amongst the top 10 in the league in slugging percentage 8 times, in 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, and 2000, which is another example of his steady production. Only 21 players in the history of the MLB have every appeared in the top 10 of the slugging percentage list more than 8 times over the course of the career, and every one of them that is eligible for the Hall of Fame is already enshrined in Cooperstown. The Big Hurt's career slugging percentage of .555 is the 22nd best all-time, ahead of Hall of Famers like Ralph Kiner (.547), Hack Wilson (.544), Duke Snider (.539), Mel Ott (.533), and Mike Schmidt (.527).

Thomas hit at least 32 home runs 9 times in his career, including 5 seasons in which he topped the 40 home run plateau. He finished in the top 7 of the league in home runs for a season 6 times, in 1991, 1993, 1994, 1995, 2000, and 2003, and during his prime from 1993 to 2000, he averaged more than 35 home runs per year. For his career, Thomas hit 512 home runs, which makes him apart of the 500 home run club along with 25 other members. Of those 25 members, 11 of them were first ballot hall of famers, Ruth, Williams, Mantle, Banks, Mays, Robinson, Aaron, McCovey, Jackson, Schmidt, and Murray, and aside from the retired members that have strong connections to steroids, Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, and Palmeiro, every player that is a part of this club, and was eligible for the Baseball Hall of Fame, is currently enshrined in Cooperstown. While hitting 500 home runs doesn't guarantee a place in the Baseball Hall of Fame, it is a number that goes a long way in helping a player's candidacy, and represents the prodigious amount of success Thomas enjoyed during his 19-year career.

However, the most extraordinary part about Thomas's career is that unlike some other power hitters, who swing for the fences and hit a lot of home runs, but also strike out at a very high rate like Reggie Jackson, Thomas was very effective at constantly getting on-base for his team. A vast majority of great power hitters who are in the Hall of Fame never came close to getting on-base nearly as much as the Big Hurt. Despite the fact that many people consider him the greatest third basemen of all-time, only twice during his illustrious career did Mike Schmidt have a single-season on-base percentage of at least .400. Furthermore, Hall of Famer Harmon Killebrew, who hit 573 home runs, only eclipsed the .400 on-base plateau 3 times in his career. In comparison, Frank Thomas had an on-base percentage of at least .400 in 10 of his first 11 years in the MLB, from 1990 to 2000 with the White Sox. For his 19-year career, Thomas had an on-base percentage of .419, which puts him 19th all-time and well ahead of other Hall of Famers like Joe DiMaggio (.398), Cap Anson (.394), Rod Carew (.393), and Joe Morgan (.392). The Big Hurt is one of just a few players in the history of the major leagues to possess the rare ability to hit for power as well as for average. Thomas's 521 home runs and .419 on-base percentage puts him in rarefied air, as he is one of just 8 players along with Babe Ruth (.474 OBP, 714 HR), Ted Williams (.482 OBP, 521 HR), Jimmie Foxx (.428 OBP, 534 HR), Mickey Mantle (.421 OBP, 536 HR), Mel Ott (.414 OBP, 511 HR), Jim Thome (.402 OBP, 612 HR), and Manny Ramirez (.411 OBP, 555 HR) to have hit 500 home runs and have a career on-base average of at least .400. Thomas's carrer weighted on-base average, which takes into account nearly every standard hitting category, was .416, with his best season in 1994 coming in at .500. To put this in perspective, Dave Winfield, a first ballot Hall of Famer in 2001, had a weight on-base average of .364 over his career, and Paul Molitor, a first ballot Hall of Famer in 2004, had a career weighted-on base average of .361. Although Thomas is considered a power hitter like Schmidt and Killebrew, his batting skills were certainly not limited to his ability to hit for power, as demonstrated by his aptitude for getting on base.

While fans will always remember the Big Hurt for his tremendous power, he was a very patient hitter at the plate, and in contrast to many star players, he was more than willing to work the count and take a walk if necessary. Thomas's poise and diligence at the plate is substantiated by the fact that he finished with 1,667 career walks, which puts him 10th on the all-time bases on balls list in MLB history. Not only did Thomas lead the league in walks in 1991, 1994, and 1995, but he finished amongst the top 9 in bases on balls for 8 straight years from 1991 to 1998, every year drawing at least 109 walks. Typically, a player that walks a lot is often pitched around because the opposing teams fear his ability to drive the ball. For example, the players who drew more career walks than Thomas, including Hall of Famers Babe Ruth (2,062), Ted Williams (2,021), Carl Yastrzemski (1,845), Mickey Mantle (1,733), and Mel Ott (1,708) got fewer pitchers to hit than most hitters because of their prowess at bat. Thomas's walks were a primary reason why his White Sox teams were able to score so many of their runs as he got on-base so often via free passes.

Frank Thomas's statistics are very similar to the great Willie McCovey, who was a longtime outfielder for the San Francisco Giants and played 22 years in the big leagues, from 1959 to 1980. Like McCovey, Thomas is in the 500-home run club, had a career slugging of over .500, and had multiple seasons with at least a .900 OPS (13 for Thomas including 7 over 1.000 and 11 for McCovery including 3 over 1.000). Finally, McCovey and Thomas were both guys who put the ball in play at a very high rate. On average for his career, McCovery struck out just 70 times per season, while Thomas struck out just an average of 73 times per season over his 19-year career. To put that in perspective, Mike Schmidt struck out an average of 105 times per season during his 18-year career, and Reggie Jackson struck out an average of 124 times per season during his 21 year career. In 1986, McCovey received 81.4 percent of votes from the writers in his first year on the ballot, which is a similar number that Thomas should get next year on his first year on the ballot.

While it would not be prudent to argue that Thomas's stats are anything but Hall of Fame worthy, it is impossible to deny the steroid implications surrounding baseball during Thomas's entire career. As shown by last year's Hall of Fame ballot, players that have a strong link to PED's like Clemens, Bonds, Sosa, Palmeiro, and McGwire are falling well short of the required 75 percent that is needed to gain entry into Cooperstown. However, more than most other players, Thomas was very outspoken against steroids from the beginning of his career, and he was one of the very first players to demand Commissioner Bud Selig implement PED testing to ensure a level playing field. After the Mitchell Report, an investigation into steroids and HGH in the major leagues, was released in 2007, the only player in all of baseball to meet with George Mitchell, the US Senator that conducted the report, to talk about the drug culture in the MLB and how to stop it was Frank Thomas. Despite his large, 250-pound frame, Frank Thomas appears to be squeaky clean in terms of steroid usage, which would lead many to assume that his Hall of Fame induction will be coming in 2014.

Craig Biggio's career was not flashy, or notoriously renowned, but the Houston Astros great should always be remembered for his versatility, ingenuity, and resourcefulness, despite not possessing all the best physical tools. Although Biggio was never a big time power hitter, a stolen base master, or a hitting machine, he did a little bit of everything well, which makes his career unique and special. Biggio was one of the most fundamentally sound baseball players of all-time, which is a large reason why the Astros flourished during his 20-year MLB stint. Prior to Biggio, from 1962 to 1987, Houston made the playoffs just three times over the 26-year period. However, Biggio was the catalyst behind the Astros successes during the 1990's and 2000's, leading the team to 6 playoff appearances in 9 years from 1997 to 2005, including the franchise's first World Series in 2005. Biggio has meant more to the Astros than arguably any other player in baseball history to his respective team, which definitely puts him in Hall of Fame territory.

Biggio was a constant producer at the top of the Astros lineup from his rookie season in 1988 to his final year in the big leagues 2007. The New York native was one of just 6 NL hitters in the 1990's, along with Paul Molitor, Lance Johnson, Ellis Burks, Tony Gwynn, and Dante Bichette, to have a season with at least 210 hits. Biggio accomplished the difficult feat in the prime of his career in 1998. During the pinnacle of his career from 1995 to 1999, Biggio averaged 186 hits per season. In 13 of Biggio's 20 seasons in the MLB, he had more than 150 hits, including 8 seasons in which he had at least 170 hits. To put this in perspective, Rickey Henderson, who had 3,055 career hits and was a first ballot Hall of Famer, only had 6 seasons of more than 150 hits and just 2 seasons in which he had at least 170 hits. Furthermore, second basemen Joe Morgan, who had 2,517 career hits and was also a first ballot Hall of Famer, only had 5 seasons in which he had more than 150 hits, and never had a season where he reached 170 hits. For his career, Biggio had 3,060 hits, which puts him a part of the exclusive 3,000 hit club, along with 27 other revered members. Of those 27 members, an incredible 19 of them were first ballot Hall of Famers, Cobb, Aaron, Musial, Wagner, Yastrzemski, Molitor, Mays, Murray, Ripken, Brett, Yount, Gwynn, Winfield, Henderson, Carew, Brock, Boggs, Kaline, and Clemente, and aside from the retired members that have strong connections to steroids, Palmeiro, or have been banned from the Hall of Fame, Rose, every player that is a part of this club and was eligible for the Baseball Hall of Fame is currently enshrined in Cooperstown. Typically, if a player hits 500 home runs, has 300 wins, or accumulates 3,000 career hits, like Biggio, they are Hall of Fame bound.

While it is easy to see that Biggio had various impressive statistical categories, he was not a player that was only great at one aspect of the game, but rather he was more of an all-around ballplayer in the field and at the plate. Thus, a great sabermetrics stat to truly evaluate the impact Biggio had on his team is through wins above replacement, or WAR, which measures a player's overall contribution to his team and, for Biggio, would take into account the variety of talents he showed on the field. While WAR can vary depending on the formula that is used, his average WAR during the prime of his career from 1993 to 1999 was a very impressive 5.8. To put that in perspective, second basemen Bill Mazeroski, who was elected to the Hall of Fame in 2001, had an average WAR of 2.8 during the best 7-year stretch of his career from 1962 to 1968 with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Furthermore, Billy Herman, who made it into the Hall of Fame in 1975, and was a longtime Chicago Cub second basemen, had an average WAR of 4.7 during the best 7-year stretch of his career from 1935 to 1941. Obviously, Biggio's WAR numbers compares very favorably with these two Hall of Fame second basemen. In 1997, Biggio had a remarkable WAR of 9.4, which would be the best of his career, and the second best WAR in the league that season, only trailing behind the NL MVP Larry Walker.

One of the most impressive parts about Biggio's career is his adaptability to play multiple positions for his team. Unlike many star players, Biggio was more than willing to use his versatility in the field. When the Astros great came up to the MLB, he was a catcher and he played behind the plate to begin his career for four seasons from 1988 to 1991. However, Biggio willingly moved to second base in his 5th year in the league, where he played at a Gold Glove level from 1992 to 2002. Despite his defensive prowess in the middle infield, Biggio went to the outfield for two years in 2003 and 2004 before playing his last three seasons back at second base from 2005 to 2007. Regardless of the fact that he was constantly changing positions, Biggio excelled in the field, as shown through the Hoban Efficiency Quotient for defense. In 1991 at catcher, Biggio had a HEQ-D of 481.045, which was a higher rating than all but two of Johnny Bench's seasons behind the plate, who many people consider the greatest defensive catcher of all-time. Furthermore, Biggio had an average HEQ-D of 385.874 in his best 7 defensive years at second base, which is considered to be nearly a superstar rating. Even in the outfield in 2003, Biggio had a HEQ-D of 364, which is outstanding for a regular outfielder, and even more so for a converted outfielder that was a longtime catcher and second basemen.

Craig Biggio's statistics are very similar to the great Robin Yount, who, like Biggio, played his entire career with one team, the Milwaukee Brewers, and was a 2-time AL MVP in 1982 and 1989. Biggio and Yount were both very well rounded players despite the fact that their stats may not blow you away. For example, although neither Biggio nor Yount had a career batting average better than .285, they each are apart of the prestigious 3,000 hit club. Furthermore, while neither Biggio nor Yount ever reached the 30 home run mark, they both were very successful in driving the ball into the gaps, as Biggio had 7 seasons with more than 40 doubles, including 2 seasons with more than 50 doubles, while Yount had 4 seasons in which he hit at least 40 doubles. Additionally, while neither Biggio nor Yount ever had 115 runs batted in over the course of a single season, they were both constantly getting on-base for their teammates to drive them in, as indicated by the fact that Biggio had four seasons in which he scored at least 120 runs, including a career high of 146 in 1997, while Yount had two seasons where he scored at least 120 runs for his team. Finally, like Biggio, Yount was an exceptional fielder, as he won a Glove Gold award in 1982 at shortstop. However, which makes them even more similar is that while they're each Gold Glove caliber players in the middle infield, they were both very versatile, as Yount converted to the outfield towards the tail end of his carrer, much like Biggio. In 1999, Yount received 77.5 percent of votes from the writers in his first year on the ballot, which is a similar number that Biggio should get in just his second year on the Hall of Fame ballot.

Looking back at Biggio's career accomplishments is quite impressive to say the least. The Seton Hall University attendee was a 7-time All-Star, 3 more than any other Houston Astros player in franchise history. Biggio also won four straight Gold Glove awards at second base from 1994 to 1997, making him one of just eight middle infielders in MLB history along with Bobby Richardson (2B, 1961-1965), Bill Mazeroski (2B, 1963-1967), Bobby Grich (2B, 1973-1977), Dave Concepcion (SS, 1974-1977), Mark Belanger (SS, 1973-1978), Tony Fernandez (SS, 1986-1989), and Ryan Sandberg (2B, 1983-1991) to win at least four consecutive Gold Glove awards. Finally, Biggio won the Silver Slugger, which is considered the best offensive player at each position for a season, 5 times (1989, 1984-1985, 1987-1988) and only Ryan Sandberg won the award more times for a second basemen. The last career honor that Biggio will be adding to his already splendid resume will be as a 2014 Hall of Fame inductee.

Saturday, January 19, 2013

The Predicament of the Baseball Hall of Fame

Former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli once said, “The legacy of heroes is the memory of a great name and the inheritance of a great example.” Legacy and immortality are very difficult to quantify, but no matter how adamantly baseball players profusely deny it, they care about how the public looks back on their playing career. Juxtaposing the legacies of players from vastly different eras is quite an onerous task (just imagine trying to compare the careers of catchers Mike Piazza and Roy Campanella) and it has become even more difficult because of the recent performance-enhancing drug (PED) implications that will forever pollute the indelible image of baseball. However, comparing different ballplayers is a large reason why fans are so enamored by the game and the Baseball Hall of Fame serves as the representative platform for the judgment and assessment of players’ careers. 

The Hall of Fame voters recently made a statement when they elected to shun any player from entering the hall, who they had suspected might have used PEDs. The task of the Hall of Fame electors is to essentially answer the question, “Do the statistics compiled by a certain player along with his intangibles show evidence that he is amongst the greatest of his era?” The voting for the Hall of Fame is certainty not a perfect science and the sports world was left in pure dejection after there were no inductees to the hall for just the first time since 1996 and only the second time in over 40 years since 1971. However, players that used PEDs should not have been voted in baseball’s most prestigious club as the “memory of their name” will always be identified with tainting baseball’s legacy and their drug usage has certainty not left an “inheritance of a great example.”

Players that used or alleged used PEDs were not on a level playing field with the rest of their counterparts on the diamond. The unprecedented statistics that ballplayers like Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, and Roger Clemens were able to amass over the careers need to be looked at with a grain of salt, as their numbers are completely inflated due to their drug usage. 

Some fans argue that while Mark McGwire may have taken steroids, the performance enhancing drugs didn’t teach him how to catch up to a fastball or how to hit a breaking ball. However, anybody who makes it to the MLB is obviously good enough to contend with the greatest players in the world, and PEDs give major leaguers an extra edge, which could propel them from an average player to one of the most dangerous in the league. For example, in 2010 Melky Cabrera hit .255 with the Atlanta Braves and knocked out just 4 home runs. However, when he began to take steroids, his batting average leaped all the way up to .346 and he hit a career high 18 home runs two seasons ago. 

Steroids allow baseball players to build endurance, strength, and muscle, such as Barry Bonds, who went from a speedy 185-pound outfielder on the Pittsburgh Pirates to a stocky 230-pound power hitter on the San Francisco Giants. PEDs also allow players to recover from injury at a much faster rate. Andy Pettite, who testified in court that Roger Clemens told him in 1999 or 2000 that he was using steroids, has admitted that he was able to return quicker from elbow surgery because of human growth hormone usage. 

With all this in mind, voters were justified in their decision to not elect players like Bonds or Clemens into the Hall of Fame because steroids gave them an unfair advantage over the other players in the league.

The Baseball Hall of Fame is a museum that shows the history of America's national pastime, and honors the careers of the most outstanding ballplayers of all-time. Some people contend that by not putting players like Bonds and Clemens into the hall, the voters are neglecting a major part of baseball's history. However, just because the Hall of Fame may not induct steroid guys into its elitist fraternity, doesn't mean that players connected to PEDs won't have any part in the hall in terms of its artifacts, videos, and photos. The paradoxical nature of PEDs is that Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa's home run chase to catch Roger Maris's single-season home run record in 1998 was one of the most exhilarating events in baseball history, and it brought the game back to the forefront of sports after its embarrassing strike in 1994. However, McGwire and Sosa didn't do it the right way, which is damning to their own careers as well as to the history of baseball.

More than any other sport, baseball is a numbers game and its fans cherish its past history and stats. If somebody says 71,838 (the NFL career passing yards record set by Brett Favre) or 38,387 (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's NBA all-time scoring record), very few fans would know the significance of those statistics. When somebody says the number “56,” baseball fans immediately think of Joe DiMaggio’s hit streak in 1941, while “714,” the number of home runs Babe Ruth hit in his career, is revered by fans. Numbers are sacred in baseball, which is why the steroid era has infuriated so many people, as PED usage has tainted the game.

Although many people agree with the Baseball Writers’ Association of America’s (BBWAA) decision to not elect PED users into the hall, that doesn’t mitigate some of the other head-scratching judgments that the journalists from the organization have made in their Hall of Fame voting history. While a preponderance of the writers are very fair and accurate voters, it is baffling that some of the journalists still refuse to elect players into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. The fact that Willie Mays, arguably the greatest baseball player ever, and Stan Musial, by many accounts the greatest left-handed hitter of all-time, were both left off more than 20 Hall of Fame ballots in their first year of eligibility is an absolute abasement and disgrace.

Furthermore, statistics are set in stone once a ballplayer ends his career, and it is up to the writers of the BBWAA to determine if a player is Hall of Fame worthy. It makes little sense how Andre Dawson could receive 67 percent of votes in his 8th year on the Hall of Fame ballot, but the next year receive more than 77 percent of the Hall of Fame votes. Dawson's career was cemented once he retired from baseball in 1996, so it is puzzling that "The Hawk" can receive an additional 50 votes from one year to the next when nothing about his baseball career actual changed.

We should get some Hall of Fame clarity next year when Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Frank Thomas are all eligble for the ballot. Maddux (355) and Glavine (305) are both 300 game winners, and Frank Thomas is one of just 9 players along with Willie Mays (.302 BA, 660 HR), Babe Ruth (.342 BA, 714 HR), Ted Williams (.344 BA, 521 HR), Hank Aaron (.305 BA, 755 HR), Jimmie Foxx (.325 BA, 524 HR), Mel Ott (.304 BA, 511 HR), Manny Ramirez (.312 BA, 555 HR), and Alex Rodriguez (.300 BA, 647 HR) to have hit 500 home runs and have a career average of at least .300. Hopefully, the writers will do everybody justice by voting in all three of the deserved first ballot Hall of Famers next year.

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

My American League All-Star Ballot

With the MLB All-Star Game just over 2 weeks away, it's time that we start to look at what the All-Star starting line-up should look like for the American League. The AL should have some nice fan support at the Midsummer Classic, as the game is being held in Kansas City at Kauffman Stadium, which recently had a large scale renovation and was thereby promised the All-Star game by MLB Commissioner Bud Selig.

In the 82 MLB All-Star games played since 1933, the AL has a losing record of 38-42-2. However, the American League has been dominate in the game in the past 24 years. Since 1988, the AL has had a record of 18-5-1 in the game and they were unbeaten in the Midsummer Classic from 1997 to 2009. Here are my selections from the American League All-Star team:

AL Catching Front-Runner: A.J. Pierzynski of the Chicago White Sox
AL Catching Contenders: Joe Mauer of the Minnesota Twins, Mike Napoli of the Texas Rangers

With none of the American League catchers having great seasons, A.J. Pierzynski is a solid choice to represent the AL behind the plate on July 10th. The 14-year veteran catcher has shown how effective he can be at the dish when he remains healthy and off the DL. Pierzynski, who leads all MLB catchers with 41 RBI's, has been one of the main cogs in the middle of the White Sox line-up and is a big reason that the team is 7th in the MLB in run scoring.

In all offensive categories, Pierzynski is having a career year. He already has 12 home runs, which is tied for the 2nd most amongst MLB catchers, and he is on pace to smash his previous season home run high, which he set in 2005 when he hit 18 long balls with the White Sox. A.J. is also 2nd in the MLB amongst catchers in slugging percentage at .493, which is 29 points higher than his previous season best mark in the category, which he set in 2003 with the Minnesota Twins when he had a slugging percentage of .464.

As always, A.J. has been very good defensively for the South Chicago team as well. He has started in 59 of the White Sox 73 games and has made just 2 errors all season, which is tied for the fewest amongst AL catchers. 

Joe Mauer is also having a pretty good season behind the plate with the Minnesota Twins but his power numbers are way down this year. Although Mauer is batting an impressive .323, he has hit just 3 home runs all season, which is tied for the 2nd least amongst the 21 MLB catchers that have had at least 150 at-bats on the year.

It has been the opposite story for Texas Rangers catcher Mike Napoli. Although Napoli has hit 12 home runs, he leads all MLB catchers with 74 strikeouts and his average, which was a career high .320 last year, has dipped way down to .245.

Pierzynski is obviously not a run away chose to start the All-Star game, but his production has been good enough to get a nod for the AL. If Pierzynski is selected for the All-Star game, it would be his 3rd appearance (2002, 2006). It would be Mauer's 5th All-Star Game appearance (2006, 2008-2010) if he were picked for the AL. If Napoli is selected to the prestigious game, it would be his first Midsummer Classic.

AL First Base Front-Runner: Paul Konerko of the Chicago White Sox
AL First Base Contender: Prince Fielder of the Detroit Tigers

After finishing 4 games under .500 last season, the Chicago White Sox should be well represented in this year's All-Star game. Like the aging A.J. Pierzynski, Paul Konerko is on pace to have the best year of his career in his 16th year in the league.

Konerko, whose .337 batting average is the 2nd best in the American League, has shown that he is not yet out of his prime. In an age with a ton of quality AL first basemen like Albert Pujols, Mark Teixeira, Justin Morneau, Adrian Gonzelez, and Prince Fielder, the 36-year old Konerko is showing no signs of slowing down. The White Sox slugger is 2nd in the AL with a .415 on base percentage and his .979 OPS is the 4th best in the AL. Despite the fact that Konerko has had fewer at-bats than most other first basemen due to the fact that he needs some more rests than younger guys like Pujols and Gonzalez, who both have had more than 280 at-bats compared to Konerko's 243, the White Sox captain leads all AL first basemen in home runs with 13.

Although Mark Teixeira has his batting average up 6 points from when it was .248 last season, the only other real threat for the AL first base spot is Prince Fielder. Fielder, who signed a 9-year, 214 million dollar contract with the Tigers during the off-season, is having another very impressive year. He leads all AL first basemen in RBI's with 46 and is the only first basemen other than Konerko in the AL that is batting above .300. It is really splitting hairs between selecting Konerko and Fielder for the first base spot in the All-Star Game.

Konerko, who is having another great season, has been an underrated star ever since he came to the White Sox 13 years ago in 1999, but his really impressive season this year should not go without an All-Star Game nod. If Konerko is selected as an All-Star, it would be his 6th appearance in the Midsummer Classic (2002, 2005-2006, 2010-2011) and his 3rd straight year appearing in the game. Prince Fielder is aiming to make his 4th All-Star Game appearance (2007, 2009, 2011) and his 1st representing the American League.

AL Second Base Front-Runner: Robinson Cano of the New York Yankees
AL Second Base Contenders: Jason Kipnis of the Cleveland Indians

As a Red Sox fan, the guy that I have feared the most in the Yankee line-up for years has been the smooth left handed swinging Robinson Cano. Although Cano has really struggled this year in terms of driving guys in with runners in scoring position, he is still hitting for a lot of power. Cano, who has hit at least 25 home runs for the past three seasons, has been using the long ball to pace the Yankee offense. Cano leads all second basemen with 17 home runs and his 40 extra base hits are the 2nd most in the MLB. Although Cano has had so much success with the long ball, which has always impressed me about him is that he still gets on base a lot and he is not a big hit or miss guy. Cano leads all AL second basemen with a .302 batting average and his .369 on base percentage is also the best among AL second basemen.

Jason Kipnis, the Indians 2010 Minor League Player of the Year, is not yet a household commodity, but the everyday Indians second baseman has been very good this year. Although Cano is having another solid year, the Indians youngster should not be overlooked. Kipnis leads all AL second basemen with 42 RBI's and he has also cased havoc on the base paths, as he has stolen 17 bases and only been caught stealing one.

If Cano is selected to the All-Star Game, it would be his 4th All-Star appearance (2006, 2010-2011) and the 3rd straight year that he would be starting at 2nd base for the AL. Kipnis is aiming to become the first Indians second basemen to appear in the All-Star game since Ronnie Belliard participated in the 2004 Midsummer Classic.

AL Shortstop Front-Runner: Elvis Andrus of the Texas Rangers
AL Shortstop Contender: Derek Jeter of the New York Yankees, Asdrubal Cabrera of the Cleveland Indians

Don't get me wrong, Derek Jeter has been unbelievable this season for the Bronx Bombers. The 38-year old shortstop, who batted .270 in 2010 and hit just 6 home runs last season, both of which were the lowest of his career (not including 1995 when he played just 15 games), has turned it around in his 18th year in the league. The Yankee captain leads all MLB shortstops with a .304 average and leads the entire American League with 93 hits.

Although the beloved Jeter is probably going to get the most votes of any AL shortstop, Elvis Andrus  deserves to start the game at short for the American League. The Texas Rangers offense has been the most dominate attack in baseball, as the team leads the league in run scoring (388), hits (732), average (.282), on base percentage (.343), slugging percentage (.456), and on base plus slugging percentage (.800). Much of the attention surrounding the Rangers line-up goes to the middle of their order, where Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, Nelson Cruz, and Mike Napoli are all big time power hitters.

However, Elvis Andrus should get a ton of credit for the Rangers offensive explosion this year because game after game he is the table setter for the teams big bats. Andrus is 1 of only 4 shortstops that is batting at least .300 and he has the 2nd highest on base percentage among middle infielders. Andrus has constantly been getting on base for the Rangers and he is a big reason for their offensive success.

We can't go through the American League shortstops without mentioning Asdrubal Cabrera. The Cleveland Indians young star, who emerged last year after 4 straight mediocre seasons, is showing once again this year why he is the next up and coming shortstop. Cabrera leads all AL shortstops with a .486 slugging percentage and a .869 on base plus slugging percentage. Despite being a shortstop, Cabrera can hit for power and he has shown that once again this year.

Andrus is looking to make his second All-Star appearance (2010) and Cabrera is attempting to appear in his 2nd straight Midsummer Classic (2011). If Derek Jeter, an All-Star regular, is selected to the game, he would be making his 13th All-Star appearance (1998-2002, 2004, 2006-2011) and his 6th straight.

AL Third Base Front-Runner: Adrian Beltre of the Texas Rangers
AL Third Base Contender: Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers, Mark Trumbo of the Los Angeles Angels

Of all the choices for the American League All-Star starters, the decision between Adrian Beltre, Miguel Cabrera, and Mark Trumbo at third base is by fair the toughest. To look at the pure numbers that these three guys have put up so far this year is incredible. Beltre is 3rd in the AL with a .328 batting average, while Trumbo ranks 6th in the AL with a .316 average. Miguel Cabrera is no slouch either, as he is the only other AL 3rd basemen batting over .300. Cabrera is 2nd in the league with 59 RBI's, while Trumbo and Beltre are the only other MLB 3rd basemen with at least 46 RBI's.

Cabrera, who has batted at least. 290 with at least 25 home runs and 100 RBI's in his last 8 seasons, is once again on pace for another fabulous season with those type of numbers. The Tigers slugger, who has finished in the top 5 of MVP voting 5 times since 2005, has made the transition over to third base much better than people expected as well. His .963 fielding percentage is the best among all AL third basemen. Despite the fact that Trumbo has been getting most of his starts for the Angels in the outfield at right or left field, he is qualified on the All-Star ballot as a third basemen.

Although Cabrera and Trumbo are having phenomenal years, Beltre should have the slightest of edges to start at third base for the American League. Along with Josh Hamilton, Beltre has been the biggest threat on the best line-up in the majors. The three-time Gold Glover and three-time Silver Slugger is killing right handed pitching, as he is batting .361 with 11 home runs and 40 RBI's against righties.

If Beltre is selected to the All-Star Game, he would be playing in the Midsummer Classic for a third straight time (2010-2011). Miguel Cabrera is hoping to make his 7th All-Star Game (2004-2007, 2010-2011) and his 3rd straight. Trumbo is looking to make his first ever All-Star appearance.

AL Outfield Front-Runners: Josh Hamilton of the Texas Rangers, Adam Jones of the Baltimore Orioles, Jose Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays
AL Outfield Contenders: Josh Reddick of the Oakland Athletics, Curtis Granderson of the New York Yankees, Josh Willingham of the Minnesota Twins

The easiest choice in the entire All-Star Game is selecting Josh Hamilton as one of the three outfielders for the American League. Hamilton, who has received over 7.3 million votes, which is already just shy of the record for the most votes for a player in a single year that was set by Jose Bautista last year, has been on a torrid pace this year.

Hamilton is tied for 2nd in the league with 23 home runs and leads the MLB with 66 RBI's and that includes an 8 game stretch in May where he hit 9 home runs and had 19 RBI's. With his unbelievably light hands, Josh has been able to maintain the 5th best average in the AL at .318. Although Hamilton has cooled off a little bit in the month of June, his slugging percentage is still tremendously high as he leads the league in the category. If Hamilton keeps up his pace, he would become just the 10th player in the last 10 years since 2003 to have a single-season slugging percentage of at least. 650.

The other two choices for the outfield spots were obviously much harder to pick, but the slight nods should go to Adam Jones and Jose Bautista.

In an offense that doesn't really have a lot of weapons, Adam Jones has been one of the most consistent contributors in the entire American League, as he is batting .300, has hit 19 home runs, and has driven in 40 runs. Jones, whose 6-year, 85.5 million dollar contract extension was the largest in Orioles history, is on pace to become the 2nd Orioles player and first since Frank Robinson in 1966 to hit at least 40 home runs and bat at least .300 in a season.

After two straight years of 40 plus home runs and 100 plus RBI's, Jose Bautista began the 2012 season very slowly. His numbers at the end of April were a .181 batting average to go along with just 3 home run and 10 RBI's.

However, since his early season slump, Joey Bats has returned to his normal power hitting self. Bautista has hit 12 home runs in his last 21 games in June and he now leads the league with 24 long balls and is in top three with 57 RBI's. Although Bautista is obviously a big time power guy, he  has stuck out just 49 times, while other power hitters like Curtis Granderson, Nelson Cruz, and Josh Willingham have all stuck out at least 69 times. In fact, Bautista has batted above .255 in the last two months and has gotten his average up to a little under .240.

The other three guys that I think are in the mix for the outfield spots, Reddick, Granderson, and Willingham, have all had solid years, but none of them have been up to the standard of Hamilton, Jones, and Bautista.

After being a part-time outfielder last year with the Boston Red Sox, Josh Reddick has been a really nice pleasant surprise for the Oakland A's. Reddick, who has already had more at-bats this season than he did all of last year, is showing big time power, as he has hit 17 home runs including a 21 game stretch in May when he hit 10 long balls. However, Reddick's 70 strikeouts are the 3rd most in the AL and his .344 on base percentage doesn't even rank inside the top 60 in the league.

Although Curtis Granderson is just 6-1 and 185 pounds, his numbers look like that of a typical power hitter. The Grandy Man is in the top 4 in the league in home runs with 21 and his isolated power ranks 10th in the AL, but his batting average is just .243 including .230 against right-handed pitchers.

Finally, Josh Willingham, who has hit at least 20 home runs 4 times in the last 6 years, has shown his power once again this season, and he is also getting on base much more often this year. Willingham, like Adam Jones, has been really consistent across the board, as he is batting .275 to go along with 15 home runs and 49 RBI's.

Josh Hamilton is vying to make his 5th straight All-Star Game (2008-2011), while Jose Bautista is trying to appear in his 3rd straight Midsummer Classic (2010-2011). Adam Jones hopes to make his 2nd All-Star Game (2009) and become the first Orioles outfielder since Brady Anderson (1992, 1996-1997) to appear multiple times in the prestigious game.

If Curtis Granderson is selected to the game, he would be making his 3rd All-Star appearance (2009, 2011). Josh Reddick and Josh Willingham are both vying to appear in their first ever Midsummer Classic. If Reddick is selected to the game, he would be the first A's All-Star outfielder in 14 years since Ben Grieve in 1998.

AL Designated Hitter Front-Runner: David Ortiz of the Boston Red Sox
AL Designated Hitter Contender: Edwin Encarnacion of the Toronto Blue Jays

Remember back in 2008 and 2009 when David Ortiz began both years awfully slowly and people left and right were wondering if the Red Sox slugger's career was coming to an end? Well, that seems like a distant memory now because Big Papi is on pace to have one of the best years of his career in his 16th year in the league at the age of 36.

The Sox designated hitter ranks in the top 3 in the league in runs scored, 6th in the AL with 20 home runs, 8th in the AL with 52 RBI's, 5th in the AL in OBS, 3rd in the league in slugging, and 4th in the MLB in OPS. Ortiz doesn't look like he is slowing down anytime soon and he has been the only consistent bat in a line-up without Jacoby Ellisbury and Carl Crawford due to injury and where perennial All-Stars Dustin Pedroia and Adrian Gonzalez have mightily struggled. Papi is seeing the ball so well right now and he is hitting anything in the strike zone. Ortiz is now just 2 long balls away from 400 home runs, and if he continues his current pace, he will become the first Red Sox to ever hit 40 home runs after the age of 36.

Although Ortiz should definitely get the nod at the DH spot for the AL, Edwin Encarnacion's impressive season should not go without notice. Encarnacion, who could not play another game for the rest of the year and still have the best numbers of his entire 8-year career, has been on a tare up in Toronto. The Blue Jays DH is in the top 4 in the league with 21 home runs and he has accounted for 51 RBI's. His .575 slugging percentage is the 4th best in the AL as well.

Ortiz is looking to make his 8th All-Star game at the DH position for the AL (2004-2008, 2010-2011). If Encarnacion is selected to the Midsummer Classic, he would become the 4th ever Blue Jay to appear in the prestigious game as a DH joining Paul Molitor (1993-1994) and Shea Hillenbrand (2005).

Friday, June 15, 2012

No-Hitters Are Becoming Much Less Special in Today's Game

Pitching a no-hitter has always been one of the most ionic achievements in baseball, and the no-hit club is a group that every pitcher wants to be apart of. More than any other sport, baseball is a numbers game and it cherishes its past history and stats. There is no other club in sports, like the no-hit club, where a player from 1876 will always have a connection to a player in today's modern game. Another component that makes a no-hitter so special is the fact that it can happen on any given day that a pitcher steps to the mound, and history has shown that no-hitters can come from the most unlikely of places. In 1999 for example, Jose Jimenez threw a no-hitter for the St. Louis Cardinals against the Arizona Diamondbacks, despite the fact that entering the game Jimenez had just 5 career wins and was 3-7 during the year with a 6.69 ERA. Finally, the atmosphere around a park with a no-hitter in progress is a unique electric nervousness, and an amazing sight to see.

Although no-hitters have always been treasured, they are becoming less and less valued today because of their increase in frequency. With more and more no-hitters being thrown, no-hit outings are becoming less special by the month.

We all remember the power surge that took place in the MLB during the 1990's and much of the 2000's. Who can forget Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa's home run battles during the 1998 and 1999 seasons when McGwire knocked out 65 and 70 homers in the two years respectively, while Sosa was not far behind with 63 home runs of his own in 1998 and 66 the following year in 1999. How bout 2001 when Barry Bonds hit an MLB record 73 home runs, and Sosa hit 64 in the same year, while Rafael Palmeiro's 47 home runs were only the 8th most in the league. To put that in perspective, last year Jose Bautista led the league with 43 home runs, and in 2009 the most home runs by any AL player was 39 by Carlos Pena and Mark Teixeira.

But that era was tainted by steroid usage, and now that MLB Commissioner Bud Selig has made it his personal mission to have the toughest drug testing in all of sports in order to attempt to ensure that steroids will no longer be present in baseball, run scoring has gone way down.

In 1999, the Cleveland Indians led the MLB with 1,009 runs scored, while in 2010 the Yankees led the league but their run total was all the way down to 859 over the course of the year. Also, in 1999, the Twins were dead last in the MLB in runs scored as they produced just 686 runs over the 162 game season, while two years ago 12 teams scored less than 686 runs and last year 14 teams scored less than 686 runs including 9 of the 16 teams from the National League. In fact, in 1999, every team in the playoffs scored at least 820 runs, while the Giants made the playoffs in 2010 after scoring just 697 runs over the course of the year.

Times have obviously changed since the early 2000's and the league has totally shifted from being dominated by big time power hitters like Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez to pitchers such as Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia. With the increasing effectiveness of pitchers, there has be a rapid rise in no-hitters, which are making no-no's much more common and therefore they are losing a little bit of their luster.

Just this year alone, we have already seen 5 no-hitters and there is still almost a month until the All-Star Game. The 5 no-hitters before the All-Star break are the most no-no's before the Midsummer's Classic since 22 years ago in 1990. And the scary part is, we could be in store for a few more no-hitters even before we get to the All-Star Game, as in the last 13 days alone we have witnessed a no-hitter by Johan Santana, a combined no-hitter by 6 Seattle Mariners pitchers, and a perfect game by Matt Cain.

Pitchers throwing no-hitters right after each other has been a trend for the past couple of years. In 2009, Jonathan Sanchez threw a no-hitter for the Giants on July 10th and thirteen days later Mark Buehrle threw a perfect game for the White Sox. Last year, Francisco Liriano threw a no-hitter for the Twins on May 3rd and four days later Justin Verlander threw a no-no for the Tigers.

A perfect game, were a pitcher doesn't allow a base runner all outing, is obviously admired by all baseball fans. But often times after a pitcher has allowed a base runner in some form other than a hit and the perfect game is shattered, the no-hitter doesn't always look as pretty. Many detractors think that numerous walks and base runners take away from a no-hitter.

For example, the beauty of a no-hitter is lost when A.J. Burnett doesn't allow a hit for the Marlins, but still walks 9 Padres batters. The elegance is no longer present when Erving Santana no-hits the Cleveland Indians but the Indians still manage to score a run.

However, the bigger problem has to do with the pure rise in no-hitters in today's game. In the last three years dating back to 2010, there have been a total of 14 no-hitters thrown. The 14 no-no's are the most over a three year span since there were 15 no-hitters thrown from 1990 to 1992. In fact, in the last 6 years since 2007, pitchers have thrown 21 no-hitters. To put in perspective the extreme increase in no-no's, in a 6 year span from 1984 to 1989, there was a total of just 5 no-hitters.

Obviously in a literal sense, there is no difference between Eddie Cicotte's no-hitter for the White Sox in 1917 and Jered Weaver's no-no last year for the Angels, as both pitchers didn't surround a hit all game. However, with the barrage of no-hitters in today's game, the significance of Weaver's no-hitter was much different than what it would have be if no-hitters were still a very rare feat.

Throwing a no-hitter will always be a great accomplishment, but no-no's lack the meaning and specialness that they one had in the past.

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Jim Thome Is A First Ballot Hall Of Famer

After hitting his 599th home run over the porch in left-center field in the 6th inning, Jim Thome wasted little time to join the exclusive club of 600 home run hitters. With a 2-1 count, and Daniel Schlereth on the mound, Thome got a breaking ball on the outside corner and crushed it over the fence in left to become the 8th player in major league history to hit 600 home runs. Thome has now joined the 600 homer club, but that is not the last club he should be joining. He should also be recognized as one of the greatest baseball players of all-time and enter Cooperstown as a first ballot hall of famer.

Only 7 other players aside from Thome have hit at least 600 home runs in their career. From April 27, 1971 until August 9, 2002, a span of over 30 years, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, and Willie Mays stood as the only three players in MLB history to have hit 600 homers. Although Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, and Sammy Sosa joined Aaron, Ruth, and Mays in the 600 home run club, all three have had connections with performance enhancing drugs. Baseball numbers, like 600 home runs, are sacred and the numbers that Bonds, Rodriguez, and Sosa have put up are tainted and inflated. In contrast, Jim Thome has never failed a steroid test and he has, by all indications, never used performance enhancing drugs. Therefore, if you take out guys like Bonds, Rodriguez, and Sosa, Thome is just the 5th player in MLB history to have hit 600 home runs. It should be noted that Ken Griffey also hit 600 homers, so he would be the fourth man to have accomplished the milestone. If you think about all the great power hitters that have played in the big leagues such as Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Mickey Mantle, Jimmie Foxx, and Willie McCovey, none of them hit 600 home runs in their career, and all of them were first ballot hall of famers.

Although Thome's lifetime batting average is just under .280, he had 8 seasons where he batted over .280, including three seasons where he has batted over .300. His career average has dropped a few points as he has gotten older, but when he was in his prime, he hit for power and average. In 2002 he hit 52 home runs and had a batting average of .304. There have been many other first ballot hall of famers with similar averages as Thome. Willie McCovey was a career .270 hitter and never batted over .280 in his final 10 seasons. Johnny Bench had a .267 lifetime batting average, Joe Morgan had a .271 lifetime batting average, and Ernie Banks had a career .274 batting average. 

Thome is not a very fast guy by any stretch of the imagination, but he is a run-scoring-machine. He scored over 100 runs 8 times during his career, including 2002 when he scored over 100 runs on an Indians team that was 74-88 and finished more than 20 games out of first place. Thome's 1,553 runs scored are more than first ballot hall of famers and speedsters Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn, Ozzie Smith, and Jackie Robinson. 

Thome has also been very productive at driving guys in. He has had 9 seasons where he has driven in over 100 RBIs, including a career high of 131 in 2003. Here is an unbelievable stat - if you combine the 100 RBI years of Jackie Robinson, Kirby Puckett, Robin Yount, and Paul Molitor, it equals the amount of 100 RBI years of Jim Thome. His 1,662 RBIs are good for 27th all-time, ahead of guys like George Brett, Mike Schmidt, Al Kaline, Mickey Mantle, Tony Gwynn, and Rod Carew. Thome's on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and on-base plus slugging percentage have always been at the top of the league. His on-base percentage was in the top 5 of his league six times, with his career high at .450. Thome's career on-base percentage of .4033 is better than first ballot hall of famers Carl Yastrzemski, Willie Mays, and Frank Robinson. His ability to be very patient at the plate and take his walks has really helped his on-base percentage. He led the AL in walks three times and is eighth all-time in career walks. He led the AL in slugging in 2002 and his .558 slugging percentage is good for 20th all-time. His on-base plus slugging percentage for his career is .961, which is 17th all-time and better than hall of famers like Ty Cobb, Willie Mays, and Carl Yastrzemski.

Thome's productivity and longevity shows that he deserves to be a first ballot hall of famer. This is Thome's 21st season in the big leagues, and he has had season after season of solid hitting. From 1994 to 2010, that's 17 years, he's had more than 20 home runs every year except for 2005, when he missed over 100 games with an injury. He's had 12 seasons of 30 or more home runs, including one as recently as 2008 with the White Sox. It's pretty impressive that a guy who began his MLB career in 1991 can hit 34 home runs at the age of 37. He's also had six 40 home run seasons, the most recent in 2006, also as a member of the White Sox. To put how good Thome has been for an extended period of time in perspective, in Willie McCovey's final 10 seasons in the big leagues, he never hit more than 30 home runs and had less than 20 homers 6 times. In Brooks Robinson's final 6 seasons, he never hit more than 10 home runs and never scored more than 53 runs. The ability of Thome to be productive and consistent for more than 20 seasons, through the age of 39, is something very special. Only a very few ball players can lay claim to his accomplishments over the course of 20-plus seasons.

Some people argue that Thome shouldn't be a first ballot hall of famer because he never won an MVP. That is ridiculous! Thome has been a consistent MVP candidate although he has never won the award. In 2002 he hit 52 home runs, but finished 7th in the AL MVP voting because his Indians team finished more than 20 games out of first place in the AL Central. The next year he finished in fourth place in the NL MVP voting after he hit 47 home runs and drove in 131 runs in his first year with the Phillies. Thome was unlucky because that same year, Gary Sheffield, Albert Pujols, and Barry Bonds all hit at least 39 home runs. Barry "Steriod" Bonds won the MVP that year. Of the last 9 batters that were first ballot hall of famers, seven of them, Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs, Paul Molitor, Eddie Murray, Ozzie Smith, Dave Winfield, and Kirby Puckett never won an MVP. All-time greats and first ballot hall of famers Al Kaline and Lou Brock never won an MVP during their careers as well. Others argue that Thome made just 5 all-star games in his career. Robin Yount made just three all-star games and was a first ballot hall of famer. Lou Brock, Willie McCovey, and Jackie Robinson made just one more all-star game than Thome and were all first ballot hall of famers. 

To keep in perspective what a prolific home run hitter Jim Thome has been, over 17,000 people have played major league baseball, and only 8 guys have hit 600 homers!

Thursday, April 14, 2011

The White Sox Can't Find A Closer

Matt Thornton came into the 2011 season as the closer for the Chicago White Sox. It hasn't gone as planned for him. Thornton is 0-2 and has allowed 10 runs on 11 hits in just 5 appearances for the Sox. He has no saves and 4 blown saves to go along with his 7.71 ERA through just 12 games. Chris Sale has been just as bad as Thornton. He has allowed 6 runs in just 7 appearances. Sale has a 7.36 ERA and has blown 1 save for the Sox. The White Sox bullpen have allowed 21 earned runs in just 12 games and only two other bullpens in the league have a higher ERA than the White Sox bullpen. Thornton and Sale have a combined .367 opponents batting average and they have blown a combined 5 saves. The White Sox have lost 5 games this season...

The White Sox bullpen struggles came to a season high yesterday. The White Sox were leading 4 to 1 after 8 innings when Chris Sale came into the game. He allowed 3 runs on 3 hits and couldn't record one out before being pulled by manager Ozzie Guillen. Matt Thornton came into the game in the 10th inning and also allowed 3 runs on 3 hits. The Sox lost to the A's in 10 innings 7 to 4 and wasted a great 8 innings of pitching from starter John Danks.

Ozzie Guillen was obviously very frustrated with his team's bullpen following their third meltdown in less than a week. He said, "The closer situation: I don't have any closer. I don't have any closer. I don't. We will see. Because from this point on, you're just scratching your head and second-guessing yourself what you're doing wrong, bringing people to the mound with a three-run lead for a third time and we can't hold the lead... When you have a bad bullpen, that's what happens. That's what happens."  That's not a good sign... I might call Bobby Thigpen [the former White Sox closer, who had 57 saves in 1990] to help us. I see the same [expletive] you guys see. Exactly the same [expletive]."

Matt Thornton said, "Oh man. There's nothing to even describe it right now. Frustration is pretty high... Confidence isn't the problem. It's my frustration right now. It's the most frustrated I've been in a long time. I can't remember a run of games like this where I haven't gotten the job done that many times in a row." Chris Sale added, "Just location. Leaving balls up and there were too many hittable pitches."

The White Sox may have to turn to their young, 27 year old pitcher Sergio Santos to close games for them. Sergio has pitched 7.2 innings and has been fantastic. Santos has only allowed five hits and he hasn't surrendered a run yet in five appearances. Santos also didn't allow a run in 9.2 innings in Spring Training. "I like where I'm at. With the fastball changeup and slider that I have, I feel confident that if I make my pitch I'm going to get outs. It's not always the case. You can make a great pitch and they get a hit off it and that happens, but I'll take my chances as a pitcher and the way I'm feeling right now." Many White Sox fans hope that Guillen will give the ball to Santos the next time they are leading in the ninth inning and they aren't the only ones. I would really like Santos to become the White Sox closer becuase he is available in my fantasy baseball league and I really need a closer!

Saturday, April 2, 2011

Chicago White Sox Season Preview

After Adam Dunn agreed to a four-year contract with the White Sox worth 56 million dollars and Paul Konerko re-signed with the team, the middle of the White Sox lineup looked very powerful. Dunn has hit over 32 home runs in every season of his career since 2004 including last year when he hit 38 and drove in 103 runs. Konerko said with the signing of Dunn, the White Sox's have a "middle of the lineup one guy deeper than a lot of teams." The knock on Dunn has been his average, which was .260 last season. The 35 year old Konerko turned back the clock last season when he hit 39 home runs and had 111 RBI's. His average was also over .300 at .312, the second best of his career. Konerko seems very impressed with the Sox's lineup, as he said. "Whoever is going to hit sixth for us would probably hit fifth for a lot of teams." However, the five and six spots will be the key to the White Sox offense. Alex Rios had a very impressive season last year when he hit the second most home runs of his career at 21, while having the most RBI's of his career at 88. Although Carlos Quentin had 87 RBI's last season, he only batted .243. Quentin has struggled to return to his 2008 season form when he hit 36 home runs and had 100 RBI's. Quentin suffered a power outage last season after the All-Star break when he hit a total of seven home runs. Quentin is also looking to stay injury-free this season. Paul Konerko is confident that Quentin will have a great season. He said, "Just because you're in the big leagues and have one great year doesn't mean you're a finished product. He's a dangerous man with a bat in his hands. That's never been his problem, which is good. For him, like for a lot of guys, you have to learn to clean up how you navigate your way through the season. With Carlos, the numbers he puts up when he's not clicking on all cylinders is what attracts everybody to him. He does so much damage you know there's more potential in there. Everybody here believes in him." Rios and Quentin will have a lot of opportunities to drive runners in with Konerko and Dunn batting before them.

Projected Starting Lineup:
1. Juan Pierre, LF
2. Gordon Beckham, 2B
3. Paul Konerko, 1B
4. Adam Dunn, DH
5. Alex Rios, CF
6. Carlos Quentin, RF
7. A.J. Pierzynski, C
8. Alexei Ramirez, SS
9. Brent Morel, 3B

The White Sox pitching staff looks very good this season and is hoping to improve on their success last season. They had 94 quality starts (where a pitcher throws at least six innings and lets up no more than 3 runs) last season, which ranked 6th in the MLB. White Sox fans are energized about their young pitcher John Danks. The fifth year starter had his best season last year with career highs in nearly every category including wins at 15 and strikeouts at 162. The former number 9 overall pick looks like he will improve his numbers from 2010, as he has improved his command and added a nasty changeup to compliment his great cutter and fastball. Danks also proved that he can be the work horse for the Sox's, as he pitched 213 innings last year, which ranked in the top 10 out of all AL pitchers. Ozzie Guillen said about Danks, "Well, you know, obviously I think he should be cautious and try to find the plate around. But I mean assume is as soon as the ball come out of his hand I feel good about it. Because you could see his stuff was there. This kid's been battling... Another game for him the way he battled... The kid's got a chance to be a hell of a pitcher." Danks will have to step up because Buehrle looks like he is coming to the end of his career, as he was five hundred last season with only 13 wins and had his highest ERA at 4.28 since 2006. The X-factor for the White Sox will be former NL Cy Young award winner Jake Peavy. He has been hampered by injuries since 2009. After struggling with a 2-5 record and a 6.05 ERA, Peavy finally looked very good winning five straight starts last season. However, he only pitched in 17 games, as he injured his right arm pitching against the Angeles on July 6th. Peavy tried to rebuild his arm strengthen during the off-season and spring training. He looked impressive until he began to have rotator cuff tendinitis this spring, which has caused him to start the season on the 15 day DL (a place he has become used to). After a rehab outing Peavy said, "Here we go again, trying to build it back up. It felt good. I felt OK. Obviously, there is fatigue there. But that's part of building your arm up and getting it strong. But like I said, here we go again. We tried it before and hopefully we can sustain it this time. When I can do that [throw 100 pitches] and bounce back and do it again in five days later, I'm going to say I'm ready to pitch in the big leagues and give it all I can to get back to Chicago. When I get to Chicago, I want to stay there."

Projected starting rotation:
1. Mark Buehrle
2. Edwin Jackson
3. John Denks
4. Gavin Floyd
5. Phil Humber
* Jake Peavy will take his place back in the rotation when he returns from a shoulder injury.
Projected closer:
Matt Thornton