NL East Preview:
The Phillies and Braves have dominated the NL East since the division was formed in 1969, winning 18 of the 20 division titles over the past two decades, but it is not as impressive since they are competing against the Mets and the Marlins every year. The Mets have been to the playoffs just 7 times in 52 seasons since 1962, and in very Mets-like fashion, they somehow managed to blow a 7 game division lead with 17 games to go in 2007, finishing 5-12 over their final stretch of the season. There is also just something about the Mets that makes you feel like they will always let you down, or they will manage to give away all of their money to some guy running a ponzi scheme (the only owner that fell for a worse mistake was Jerry Jones when he drafted Bobby Carpenter in 2007). Meanwhile, the Marlins organization is symbolized by their transition from the 1997 season, when they won their first ever franchise World Series, to the 1998 year, where they traded Moises Alou to the Astros, Gary Sheffield to the Dodgers, Mike Piazza and Al Leiter to the Mets, and Kevin Brown to the Padres and finished with 108 losses. The division this year, however, is not going to be won by any of the preceding teams that were just mentioned, but rather by my pick to play against the Red Sox in the 2014 World Series, the Washington Nationals.
Washington Nationals Preview:
The Nationals have
one of the best pitching rotations on paper that we have seen for several years in the big leagues. While sports are obviously not played on paper, or else Villanova would not have beaten Patrick Ewing and Georgetown in the 1985 NCAA Championship Game, the Nats have enough arms to pitch their way to a division title. Stephen Strasburg has been mildly disappointing over his first four years for a pitcher with his talent and his velocity, but he is more than capable of being a CY Young caliber pitcher. Many pitchers who have had Tommy John surgery on their arm, like Strasburg had in 2010 towards the end of his rookie season, have actually come back just as good, if not better, after getting the operation. John Lackey is the most notable example, as the Sox pitcher missed the 2012 season and then came back with his best year since 2009 to help Boston win the World Series (I have to bring it up as much as I can). Another example is John Smoltz, who after getting Tommy John in 2000, set the mark for the most saves in NL history with 55 in 2002 (he shares the record today with Eric Gagne). However, there are some instances where pitchers have not been able to return to their form before the surgery. While Ben Sheets was nearing the end of his career with the Brewers, the operation seemed to have a negative impact on his pitching abilities (after making two straight All-Star games and finishing with the 5th best NL ERA in 2008, Sheets was 4-9 in the year after getting his surgery). It remains to be seen what end of the spectrum Strasburg will fall on, but even though he hasn't looked as good as he did in the early parts of his rookie year, he can still be one of the best pitchers in baseball. Strasburg's fastball can still hit the mid 90's and it allows him to set up his very good changeup and curveball low in the zone for strikeouts, as he led all major league pitchers with a minimum of 150 innings pitched in 2012 in k/9.
The Nats rotation just starts with Strasburg though, as Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, and Doug Fister give Washington a World Series caliber pitching staff. Zimmermann is the most underrated pitcher in the major leagues, the most underrated pitcher, the most underrated pitcher (if I say it enough times maybe people will start to notice him). In the last three years, only Kershaw, Cliff Lee, and Madison Bumgarner have had a lower ERA than Zimmermann for NL pitchers with at least 90 starts and he was tied for the National League lead in wins last season with Adam Wainwright. Although the Nats are sometimes a little too conservative with his pitch count (brings back memories of Strasburg in 2012), Zimmermann still had 16 starts where he went 7 innings and allowed 2 runs or less in 2013. Gio is another guy that has been just great for the Nats over the past two years. He led the NL in wins, fielding independent pitching, and k/9 in 2012, the third NL pitcher to do so since John Smoltz in 1996 and Jake Peavy in 2007 (both of them won the Cy Young in those respective years). Gio has a curveball with a ton of downward movement, giving him the 4th highest curveball value over the last two years according to fangraphs behind only Kershaw, Wainwright, and Strasburg (ahead of Verlander). The Nationals also became the first team to win a trade with Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski when they picked up Doug Fister this off-season. I know that Detroit got a good young left arm with Robbie Ray, but Fister is just such a consistent pitcher, as his 2.38 ERA in 2011 with the Mariners and Tigers was 4th best in the AL and only Verlander, Sale, Price, Shields, and Felix have had a lower ERA than Fister among AL pitchers with at least 90 pitching appearances over the last three years.
The Nationals run production will be their biggest hurdle in winning their first playoff series since they were still in Montreal in 1981 (the only worst franchise in Canada was the Vancouver Grizzlies). Bryce Harper can hit the ball a country mile (it was reported he hit a 570 foot homer in high school) and at age 21, he is only just getting started. Harper has shown signs over his first two years that he can be a guy to hit 40 home runs with something like a .600 slugging percentage, as he hit at least 20 home runs with better than a .200 isolated power in 2011 and 2012. Bryce is fearless at the plate and he takes some of the biggest cuts on the ball that I have ever seen because of his incredible bat speed. He could be a little more patient and disciplined at the plate (his BB% was under 10 in 2012), but you do have to remember that he is quite mature for somebody that is younger than DeMarcus Cousins. Harper is also one of those guys that is always hustling and taking extra bases or throwing guys out from the outfield in a heads up manner (I feel like I needed to add "in a heads up manner" because Yasiel Puig does the same things on the field except it is almost always in a reckless and risky manner, much like his journey to the United States). As much as Harper may be the closest thing that the major leagues has to a five tool player along with Mike Trout and Carlos Gonzalez, the Nats will need Jayson Werth, Ian Desmond, and Wilson Ramos to continue to hit (they combined for 61 home runs last season), slugger Ryan Zimmerman to stay healthy and drive in 100 runs (he has had a WAR of nearly 4 and a OPS well above .800 each of the last two years), second basemen Anthony Rendon to rise to prominence (he is one of baseball's top prospects), and Adam LaRoche to literally do anything (he hit .237 in 2013 after finishing 2012 with 33 home runs, 100 RBI's, and a 6th place spot in the NL MVP voting). You know baseball contracts are just ridiculous when a guy like Jayson Werth, who is an above average hitter but not much more, is getting paid 18 million dollars a season. At least the Nats can take some solace in the fact that Werth is hitting fairly well and that they did not sign A-Rod to a 275 million dollar deal or that they are not associated with the New York Knicks in any manner (small victories sometimes go a long way).
Atlanta Braves Preview:
Going into this off-season, it looked as if the Braves would have a fairly easy time making the playoffs for the 18th time in the last 24 seasons since 1991, but then players began to fall left and right. For the second time in his career, Kris Medlen needed Tommy John surgery, so the Braves lost a pitcher who was 10-1 in 2012 and had a 3.11 ERA in 2013. Shortly thereafter, Brandon Beachy joined Medlen as pitchers to get their second Tommy John surgery (a club that is unfortunately growing at a very fast rate), costing the Braves another top end starting pitcher for the season and somebody who had a 2.1 WAR in 2012 and has a very solid 3.23 career ERA. These injuries came on top of the fact that the Braves lost the always consistent Tim Hudson to the San Francisco Giants (try to found somebody that seems angrier playing sports than Huddy. Maybe Jake Peavy or Kendrick Perkins). Even with all of your rotation intact, it is very hard to replace a guy that finished 4th in the Cy Young in 2010 and is third in NL wins since 2010 behind only Kershaw (should be a given) and Yovani Gallardo (a little bit surprising), but it becomes nearly impossible to have a solid rotation when you lose your top three starters for the entire season and have B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla on your team. The Braves are now left to rely on Ervin Santana (Phil Jackson as the President of a NBA team is the only thing more frightening than Ervin Santana as a club's top starter). Mike Minor, who will begin the season on the DL, Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, and Gavin Floyd, once he returns from the Tommy John surgery he had last year, will fill out a very questionable Braves starting rotation. After finishing with the league's lowest ERA last year at 3.18, Atlanta could have some trouble this season if their pitching falters and they need Dan Uggla and B.J. Upton to actually do something.
Despite some of their obvious starting pitching problems due to some key injuries, it is undeniable that the Braves have a very good bullpen to help them close out games. Craig Kimbrel does not get enough credit for just how good he is in the 9th inning of games. From a pure aesthetics standpoint, Kimbrel is just beautiful to watch because he can threw gas with his high 90's fastball but he also has one of the best curveballs in all of baseball that has allowed him to have a ridiculous strikeout percentage of better than 38% every year since 2010. Kimbrel has been at the top of the NL in saves for three straight seasons and his 50 saves last year were the 7th most in NL history. Since 2011, Kimbrel has 138 saves and just 15 blown saves, has a 1.48 ERA and a 1.43 FIP, and has finished in the top 10 of the NL Cy Young voting ever year. As a team, the Braves have had a top 3 bullpen ERA every year since 2010 and much should remain the same this season with guys like David Carpenter, Luis Avilan, and Jordan Walden in front of Kimbrel to help Atlanta's rotation.
I've been fearing this all day, but I now have to talk about the Braves very talented but underperforming lineup, which means that everybody is going to have to sit through looking at the heinous numbers of B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla (it is a worse site than Dresden). Atlanta does have Freddie Freeman in the middle of their order to keep some things in order. Aside from possibly Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto, I'm not sure if there is a first basemen I would take ahead of Freddie Freeman (on second thought, possibly Paul Goldschmidt but I would have to think about that one). He finished 5th in NL MVP voting last season, and deservedly so, because Freeman was 2nd in the NL in RBI's with 109, 3rd in batting average at .319, 6th in on-base percentage at .396, and 7th in on-base plus slugging percentage at .897. Freeman is only getting better as well and his pure left handed swing is one of the smoothest in all of baseball. However, the Braves do have some real concerns up and down their order. Everybody is still waiting on Jason Heyward to take the next step but he does have some ridiculous power, and Justin Upton did hit 27 home runs last year but he might have been spending too much time with his brother because he had his lowest batting average since 2008. The chances that Chris Johnson hits .321 again this season is highly unlikely and Evan Gattis can hit the long ball but not much else. Andrelton Simmons could not get a hit for the entire season but it doesn't matter because he is that good defensively, as his 5.4 defensive WAR was tied with Terry Turner for the best in a single-season in MLB history (he did have the 4th lowest k% in the majors to go along with his amazing play at shortstop that tied a defensive mark that has stood since 1906). Finally, we get to the other Upton (not Kate, not Justin) and Dan Uggla. Despite signing with the Braves in their largest contract in franchise history for more than 15 million dollars, B.J Upton had one of the worst seasons anybody has ever seen. He had a dismal batting average of .184, a dreadful slugging percentage of .289, and a horrid strikeout percentage of 33.9 (all of which were the second worst in the the majors with a minimum of 400 plate appearances). The only person who made more money and did less than Upton last year was Donald Trump. Dan Uggla somehow managed to almost be as bad as Upton. His .179 batting average was tied with Rob Deer in 1991 for the worst in a MLB season since 1900 and his 31.8 k% was the 8th worst in NL history.
Philadelphia Phillies Preview:
The Phillies will likely have the 3rd highest opening day payroll in all of baseball at around 180 million dollars, but they will be quite lucky if they finish above .500 for the first time since they won 102 games in 2011. Their entire roster is just full of guys that are old, are getting paid way too much money, and are not close to what they were in the prime of their career (essentially they are a poor man's version of the Brooklyn Nets). Ryan Howard signed a 5-year, 125 million dollar contract extension with Philadelphia in 2010 to go with the 3-year, 54 million dollar deal he signed the previous year and then decided that he no longer needed to do anything in his career but strikeout at the plate (in fairness to him, Howard has missed so much time with injuries over the past two years. Who can forget when he tore his achilles on the last play of the 2011 NLDS against the Cardinals). It is very hard to put any faith in Howard because he has played sparingly since 2011 and when he has been on the field, he has swung and missed more than the NBA with their short sleeve jerseys. His 33.9k% in 2012 was the 2nd worst in the NL for batters with at least 290 plate appearances and his 30.0 k% in 2013 was the 5th worst amongst NL batters with at least 300 plate appearances. Howard has just not looked the same over the past two years and nothing like the guy from 2006 to 2011 who could pull any ball over the right field fence with relative ease (his 58 home runs in 2006 are only behind Roger Maris and Babe Ruth among non-steroid connected players like Bonds, McGwire, and Sosa for a single-season. It is a shame that every stat now has an asterisk next to it because of the use of performance enhancing drugs. As far as I am concerned, the legitimate and true single-season home run king is still Maris). Meanwhile, Chase Utley is as old as Jeff Bridges and Herb Kohl combined and yet the Phillies actually need him to be the Chase Utley of 2009 in order to actually win some ballgames this season. Utley, who is still getting paid 15 million dollars a season despite being 35, has the kness of Greg Oden and Dwayne Wade, which basically means that he is Oscar Pistoruis without the murder chargers. As if the Phillies couldn't get any older, they will also be starting a very steeply declining Jimmy Rollins at shortstop, who has limited range in the infield, 36 year old Marlon Byrd, and a catcher that is 35 with Carlos Ruiz. We may need emergency services ready at any time for these guys.
It is a rare sight to see in Philadelphia, but the Phillies do at least have a few young bright spots to look forward to watching, so that their fans can know that not all players need a cain to get up every time they hit the ground. Domonic Brown is a guy that the Phillies can build around for the next several years. He showed his natural power last season when he tied for the 4th most NL home runs with 27 including when he hit 16 long balls in a 36 game stretch from May 1 to June 8, and when he had the 6th best National League isolated power and the 9th best slugging percentage at a tad under .500. Like many good but still improving young hitters, Brown can crush fastballs in the zone but he sometimes struggles with off-speed pitches and being patient at the plate (his BB% of 7.2 was tied for 93rd in the MLB and was well behind Joey Votto, who led the league with a very high BB% of 18.6. He also swung at 29.8% of pitches that were outside the strike zone according to fangraphs). Brown had a whiff percentage of 16.36 against sliders and 14.22 against curveballs while his whiff percentage against fastballs was just 8.72. Meanwhile, despite the fact that Ben Revere has still not hit a home run in 4 MLB seasons (he is closing in on Duane Kuiper's record for the most plate appearances to start a career without a home run), he is actually a very solid leadoff hitter. He hit .294 with a .333 on-base percentage in 2012 and followed it up with a similar performance last season hitting .305 and having a .338 on-base percentage. With a lineup that has more old guys than the movie
Last Vegas, Brown and Revere are at least some signs of youth.
Here is Ruben Amaro's very flawed logic (what else is new): if we essentially keep the same team that won the World Series in 2008 and made it back again in 2009 and don't make any big moves, we will eventually return to the same spot sooner or later. The Angels tried that model after winning the World Series in 2002 and in two of the next four years they didn't even make the playoffs. While it will probably not help them return to the postseason, the Phillies do have three dominate guys at the top of their rotation. Cliff Lee has not thrown a ball since he was in third grade. He has led the league in the strikeouts to base on balls ratio in three different seasons (only Carl Hubbell, Robin Roberts, Fergie Jenkins, and Roy Halladay have done so more times since 1914) and walks per 9 innings in four different years (Cy Young and Christy Mathewson are the only pitchers to do so more times) and his 10.278 K/BB and 0.763 BB/9 in 2010 were both the second best in a single-season since 1934 (only behind Bret Saberhagen's 1994 year in both categories). Lee goes right after hitters with his off-speed pitches and cutter and since batters have a 17.39 whiff percentage against his curveball and a 15.92 whiff percentage against his change-up, they are constantly down in the count and put into a hole with two strikes. While Cole Hamels may begin the season on the DL, he is another top five left handed pitcher that the Phillies have in their rotation (behind guys like Kershaw, Price, Sale, and possibly Lester). Hamels was tied for the 3rd most percentage of change-ups thrown in 2013 at 24.9 percent of his pitches and it is probably the best change-up in all of baseball along with Felix and James Shields. He has finished in the top 7 of strikeouts/base on balls in 7 straight seasons and in the top 8 in pitching WAR in 4 consecutive years. A.J. Burnett (a guy I forgot before but could go along with Hudson and Peavy for the angriest pitchers in the MLB) has been much better since he left the Yankees in 2011 (he can join the club of current pitchers like Tyler Clippard, Ian Kennedy, and Mark Melancon. No pitcher in the majors threw more curvballs than Burnett last season, but his main off-speed pitch that has a hard break and stays down in the zone allowed him to have the second highest groundball percentage on batted balls in the majors.
New York Mets/Miami Marlins Preview:
You will be hard pressed to find two organizations run any worse than the New York Mets and the Miami Marlins (this does not include the Oakland Raiders and
the Florida Panthers because they are practically not even pro sports franchises). Somehow, the Marlins have managed to win two World Series since 1993 and not make the playoffs any of the other 19 years. While 2 championships in 21 years in not at all a bad rate (the Roylas would take 2 playoff appearances in 21 seasons), the fact that the Marlins have had two distinct teams capable of being perennial title contenders and yet they have still had 15 losing seasons shows that the front office, more like their owner actually, has just done a real poor job. It is harder to somehow mess everything up when you actually have some good talent than when you continually lose when you have nothing to work with, which is why the Marlins are the most dysfunctional thing since attempts for democracy in Egypt. I've already talked about how the Marlins just destroyed their entire World Series team from 1997 and then went on to have one of the worst seasons after winning a title in pro sports. Jeffrey Loria then ruined the Marlins for several years when he had the biggest change of heart since Benedict Arnold after he spent a ton of money in 2012 and then got rid of all the team's big contracts a year later. Meanwhile, the Mets 7-year postseason drought is only behind the Marlins for the longest in the National League (tied with the San Diego Padres) and since every player that the Mets brings in suddenly forgets how to play baseball (Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, Jason Bay), the streak should continue beyond this year.
In a roster that only the Marlins could pull off, they could have the best two of the best three players in the game that are 24 years or younger (Mike Trout being the other) with Jose Fernandez, a top five right handed pitcher in the game, and Giancarlo Stanton, possibly the best right fielder in baseball, and they will still likely finish with less than 70 wins for the 3rd season in a row. If you ever do happen to watch a full Marlins game, which would be as sad as the end of
Toy Story 3, then Fernandez and Stanton would be the sights to see. Fernandez is about as nasty of a pitcher as I have seen over the past two decades. He was in the top five of just about every NL pitching category last season (1st in H/9, 2nd in ERA, 2nd in K/9, 2nd in adjusted pitching wins, 3rd in pitching WAR, 4th in FIP) and he had the best rookie year for a pitcher since Mark Fidrych in 1976, Fernando Valenzuela in 1980, or Dwight Gooden in 1984, and the best rookie year for any player since Ted Williams in 1939, Fred Lynn in 1975, or Ichiro in 2001. After finishing 3rd in the NL Cy Young voting in 2013, Fernandez is only going to get better, which is really quit scary. The Marlins are also fortunate enough to have Giancarlo Stanton patrolling the outfielder and just crushing balls at the plate. There are very few guys in the big leagues who have the pure power of Stanton, as he has the 2nd highest isolated power in the MLB over the last three years and the 2nd most NL home runs since 2011 (behind only Jay Bruce) to go along with the fact that he led the MLB in slugging in 2012. The Marlins do also have some other young players to keep an eye on like Christian Yellich, Marcell Ozuna, Adeiny Hechavarria, and Henderson Alvarez, but they should be watching games in the middle of October once again.
This was the year that Mets fan had circled as the season that they would finally make a jump and win at least 80 games for the first time since 2008, but that estimate seems a little too premature (this should not come as a surprise to anybody that is a rational human being). It is unfortunate that Matt Harvey is going to be out for the entire season due to Tommy John surgery because any time baseball loses a pitcher that became the 3rd guy since 1972 to have a FIP of 2.0 or lower along with Dwight Gooden in 1984 and Pedro in 1999 is just sad for all the fans in the game. They do still have one of the best young pitchers in baseball to watch with Zack Wheeler, who has a pretty good pitching repertoire including a mid 90's fastball and a very nice curveball. Aside from having some real good stuff and being one of the best pitchers under the age of 23 (some real good young pitchers with Jose Fernandez, Julio Teheran, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Gerrit Cole, and Trevor Rosenthal all 23 years or under as well), Wheeler ruined the trade market for years to come, which was why the trade deadline was so boring for everybody last year. After the Giants traded Wheeler for just a half a year of Carlos Beltran (the Mets actually made a good trade, showing that everybody gets lucky: just ask the 1983 NCST Wolfpack or the 2012 Chelsea Blues) every team is looking for a similar trade before making a move because young starting pitchers are just so valuable nowadays. This is why it was so odd to see the Tigers give up Fister for so little because the Mets got Wheeler for not even a full year of Beltran and the Rays got Wil Myers for James Shields. Along with Wheeler, we will also see the debut of the highly anticipated Noah Syndergaard, who was become known around New York for his hard throwing fastball. While a future rotation of Harvey, Wheeler, and Syndergaard does sound pretty nice, in the interim, Mets fans will have to settle for watching Ike Davis, Chris Young, and Curtis Granderson strike out every at-bat.
NL Central Preview:
The St. Louis Cardinals have been the model franchise in the major leagues
since they won the World Series in 1982 over the Milwaukee Brewers. Over that time span, the Cardinals have been to the World Series seven different times (aside from the Yankees, no other team has been to the World Series five different times since 1982), have only had 3 losing season in the more than 30 years, and they have been to the postseason 10 of the last 14 seasons since the turn of the century (the Sox have won the most World Series since 2000 - two times beating the Cardinals - but nobody has been as consistent as St. Louis). There is just something about the baseball culture and the way the game is played in St. Louis that has helped them dominate the NL Central, winning 8 of the last 14 division titles and being a Wild Card team three other times, including when they won the World Series in 2011 over the Texas Rangers. The Cards have done things the right way as well through good pitching and fielding behind them and fundamentals at the plate (and not unnecessarily overpaying for Albert Pujols). The Cubs have not won the Fall Classic since they beat the Tigers for the second straight year in 1908 and they haven't even been to the World Series since 1945 when they lost to Detroit in seven games, the Pirates have had one playoff appearance since 1992, the Reds have not won a playoff series since 1995, and the Brewers have won just one postseason series since 1982, so the Cards should be advancing on from the NL Central once again this year.
St. Louis Cardinals Preview:
The Cardinals are the exact opposite of the New York Mets
in that everything that the Mets bring in turns into Jason Bay and everything the Cardinals touch turns into gold. Just take the Cards pitching staff for example, which is just full of young, talented arms that other teams fail to ever wind up with in their organization. After losing 2005 NL Cy Young and post-season horse Chris Carpenter in 2012 to retirement and Kyle Lohse the following year to the Brewers, the Cardinals were able to stockpile their rotation with youngsters like Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly, and Lance Lynn (Carlos Martinez is going to be there soon enough as well), all of whom are 26 years or younger and should be at the top of baseball's pitching stratosphere for years to come. Anybody that watched Michael Wacha in the postseason last year, where he went 4-0 with a 1.00 ERA and held hitters to a .122 bating average in his first four playoff starts, can tell you that he is going to be the next big thing in the majors. There are few guys in the sow that throw a power changeup like Wacha, whose main off-speed pitch still comes in around the high 80's and has late breaking life to it. In 2013, batters hit just .211 against Wacha's changeup with no home runs, a 34.1 strikeout percentage, and a 66.7 ground ball percentage. Wacha's fastball-changeup combination is already at the top of the game, so if he can develop his curveball and cutter, he will be that much tougher for hitters to face. Shelby Miller is another very highly rated young pitcher for the Cards. In his first full MLB season, Miller had the 6th most win in the National League with 15 and was in the top 10 of the NL in ERA at 3.06. Miller really only has two pitches, a fastball that he threw more than 70 percent of the time in 2013 and a curveball, which would be a little more concerning if his fastball was not such a good pitch that he could locate around the zone. Not only does Joe Kelly have two first names (he can join the club of Chris Paul, Frank Thomas, and Tony Parker), but in just his 2nd MLB season, his ERA was also the 5th best in the NL last year among pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched. Lance Lynn is the final Cards young gun in the starting rotation and he has been in the top 6 in NL wins over the last two years and in the top 9 in NL strikeouts per 9 innings since 2012. Even the Cardinals bullpen is full of really good young pitchers, highlighted by 100 mph throwing 23-year old Trevor Rosenthal, who had a 1.91 FIP in 74 appearances last year and has not allowed a postseason run in 20.1 innings pitched, and Carlos Martinez, another hard-throwing 22-year old right hander that can also mix in a slider during the count.
Often times, when something new and shiny comes in, we forget about the old, consistent player that has been at the top of his game for such a long time (who hasn't heard the alleged story about Isiah Thomas leading a freeze-out of Michael Jordan during the 1985 NBA All-Star Game at the old Hoosier Dome in Indianapolis when he and some other veteran players were reportedly upset about all the sponsorship deals and fanfare that Jordan was receiving as a rookie in the league. In Jordan's defense, he did average 28.2 points per game in the 1984-1985 season - the most by a rookie since Kareem scored 28.8 per game in 1970 with the Bucks - and was 2nd in PER and win shares, so the attention was very much deserved. However, to think that Thomas could get an entire team of guys like Moses Malone, Larry Bird, Julius Erving, Bernard King, Sidney Moncrief, and other to not pass the ball to Jordan is a little bit of a stretch. Whether it was or was not a freeze-out, Jordan could not have been happy scoring just 7 points in his first ever All-Star Game, and in very Jordan-like fashion, he got his revenge in the Bulls next game when he scored a franchise rookie record 49 points against Isiah's Pistons). It is a little different situation in St. Louis, but with all of the young arms on the Cards staff like Wacha and Miller (they are representative of the young guys in the NBA in 1985 like Jordan, Hakeem, Barkley, Sam Perkins, Clyde, and Ralph Sampson) you really can't forget about the Cards true ace, a guy that has finished in the top 3 of the NL Cy Young three in the last four years he has pitched, Adam Wainwright (representative of the veterans in he NBA in the mid 1980's like Kareem, Magic, Alex English, George Gervin, Adrian Dantley, Bird, Erving, and Moses). Wainwright has a full compliment of pitches with his sinking fastball, cutter (batters have a career .161 batting average against his cutter) and curveball (he threw the third most curveballs in the majors in 2013). Wainwright is very close with Kershaw for the best curveball in the majors, and few guys have the movement on their pitches that the Cards ace possess on his nasty off-speed stuff. Wainwright's curveball has 8.14 inches of horizontal movement on it, the most in the majors, and since 2007, only Barry Zito and Brett Myers - neither of whom are on a team as of now - have had more downward vertical movement on their curveball than Wainwright, who has averaged 9.14 inches of movement on his breaking ball towards the bottom of the zone since that date).
As if things weren't tough enough, teams will also have to face a Cardinals offense that has been in the top 5 of the majors in runs scored for three straight seasons because of their extreme depth from the top of their order to their bench guys. The Cards have lost a lot of big, power hitters over the past several years including Pujols, Lance Berkman, David Freese, Carlos Beltran, and even Colby Rasmus, but they have been able to better their offense production in recent years by not allowing the opposing pitchers to have an easy out in their lineup. Although the Cards do lack the power in their lineup that they had with
some of their bigger name hitters (they ranked 27th in the majors in
home runs last year), St. Louis still managed to finish 3rd in runs, 4th
in hits, 2nd in doubles, 4th in batting average, and 3rd in on-base percentage last season. The Cards have as consistent and deep of a lineup from the leadoff man to the 8th hitter that I have seen in the National League (even better than the 2013 Miami Marlins). Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Heyward could be the only two leadoff hitters in the majors that I would take over Matt Carpenter. Carpenter, who became the first Card to win the Silver Slugger at second base in the award's history and finished 4th in the 2013 NL MVP race, led the major leagues last season in runs scored (the 8th most runs scored in a season by a second basemen since 1939), hits, and doubles (the 3rd most doubles in a season by a second basemen since 1937) and was 3rd in the NL in offensive WAR, 5th in adjusted batting wins, and 6th in the National League in batting average at .318. He did all this at a position that outside of Cano and Pedroia does not typically provide a lot of offense for teams, and as one of a few players that hits without any batting gloves on his hands (him and Wil Myers are the only ones left standing). Matt Holliday, who could be the best left fielder in baseball (it is close with Carlos Gonzalez), is one of the most underrated players in baseball and will be the center piece of the Cards offense for another year (he has averaged 27 home runs, 103 RBI's, a .314 batting average, and a .931 on-base plus slugging percentage in the last 8 years) and has a perfect stroke for hitting the ball into the large gaps at Busch Stadium. Matt Adams, Allen Craig, and performance enhanced Jhonny "What deterrent is there to steroids when I can get a 53 million dollar contract after getting caught with PED's" Peralta will protect Holiday in the lineup, especially Craig, who is one of just seven players to bat .315 or better in two of the last three seasons with a minimum of 200 plate appearances each year (Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, teammate Yadier Molina, Mike Trout, Adrian Beltre, and Joe Mauer being the others). Even Yadier Molina, a guy that was once exclusively seen as the best defensive catcher in the game (he is still known as that since he has won 6 straight Gold Gloves - 10 away from tying the great defensive third basemen Brooks Robinson's record - and has the 2nd highest active defensive WAR behind only Adrian Beltre) has been one of the best hitters for St. Louis, as in the last two years he has been in the top 4 in the NL in batting average both seasons.
Pittsburgh Pirates/Cincinnati Reds Preview:
After missing out on 19 consecutive postseasons from 1993 to 2012 and being as irrelevant as ABC family, the Pirates finally made it to October last year, as the city of Pittsburgh rejoiced for the first time since the Steelers won the Super Bowl in 2008 and the Penguins took home Lord Stanley the following year. The Pirates will now have to face something entirely new to them, which is actually dealing with success, as they are coming off their best season since they had Jim Leyland as their manager and Barry Bonds won the MVP in his final year in Pittsburgh in 1992. They are like the new girl in school who is getting all the attention or the actor that just made his Hollywood debut in a big movie (will the Pirates turn into Mark Hamill or keep up their high level like Robert Duvall). After the New Orleans Saints finally ended which is now the 3rd longet playoff drought in NFL history by making the playoffs in 1987 for the first time in 21 attempts (they had a dismal record of 86-196-5 from 1967 to 1986), the Saints failed to get a postseason win until 2000 (they were the Peter Billingsley, Jaye Davidson, or Brandon Routh of sports until Drew Brees entered the scene and beat the Colts in the Super Bowl in 2009). However, the Redskins and Steelers followed a much different narrative than the Saints after their prolonged playoff droughts. The Redskins had the longest run in NFL history without making the postseason, as Washington didn't reach the playoffs from 1946 to 1970. However, after they snapped their 25-year postseason drought in 1971, the Skins were one of the NFL's most dominate teams before the past two decades, making 5 Super Bowl appearances (1972, 1982, 1983, 1987, 1991) and winning 3 of them (1982, 1987, 1991) in the 1980's and early 1990's. After the Steelers made the playoffs in 1972 for the first time since back in 1947, they have never looked back, making the playoffs in 26 of the last 42 seasons and winning 6 Super Bowls in the process (1974-1975, 1978-1979, 2005, 2008). The Redskins and Steelers have been the Johnny Depp, Anna Paquin, or Barbra Streisand of pro sports, so we will see if the Pirates become the Saints or the Redskins or Steelers?
Andrew McCutchen had the best season for a Pirates player in 2013 since the days of Barry Bonds when he became the first player in baseball history to have more than 30 home runs and 50 stolen bases in a season in 1990, before the steroids kicked in and he got slow and fat (McCutchen's WAR of 7.9 in 2013 has only been topped by Pirate greats Honus Wagner, Barry Bonds, Arky Vaughan, Roberto Clemente, and Ralph Kiner in a single-season for a Pittsburgh player). McCutchen has been in the top 3 in the National League in MVP, offensive WAR and overall WAR, on-base percentage, hits, and adjusted batting runs and wins each of the last two seasons. The Pirates will need him to continue to get on base at a major league high rate this season, especially against left handed pitchers, who he hit a ridiculous .388 against with a 1.130 on-base plus slugging percentage in 2013. McCutchen gets some of the easiest power in baseball, which allows him to hit for contact to all parts of the ballpark knowing that his balls will fly. McCutchen is going to be the constant for the Bucs, so the question with the Pirates lineup will be the pieces around him. Despite the fact that Pedro Alvarez led the NL in strikeouts last season, Pittsburgh could swallow that again if he is at the top of the National League in home runs and home runs per at-bat this season (nothing good comes without sacrifice, hopefully Carmelo will come to understand that, so 180 strikeouts for Alvarez with his home run ability is not something all that bad). The Pirates were 20th in the majors in runs last year and still made the playoffs, so some consistency from Starling Marte, Neil Walker, and Russell Martin should provide enough runs for Pittsburgh with their well above average pitching staff, which had the 3rd lowest ERA in the majors last year. Although their rotation will take a hit after losing A.J. Burnett, a resurgent Francisco Liriano, the solid Wandy Rodriguez and Charlie Morton, a major comeback possibility from Edinson Volquez, and a major leap possibility for Gerrit Cole could help the Pirates allow their fewest runs in a 162 game season since 1984 (granted they did finish last in the division that year). Liriano, who finished 9th in the NL Cy Young, has a really hard cutting slider, which ranked second behind only Yu Darvish according to fangraphs, and batters have just a .169 career batting average against the pitch. Meanwhile, since 1996, Jose Fernandez in 2013 (2.73) and Roy Oswalt in 2001 (2.84) are the only starting pitchers with at least 19 starts to have had a lower FIP in their rookie year than Gerrit Cole. Cole can throw three pitches and his fastball in the high 90's is the reason why he is so highly regarded by scouts.
Ever since the Reds swept the A's in the 1990 World Series behind Barry Larkin, Paul O'Neill, Chris Sabo, Eric Davis and Jose Rijo, they have been the Dallas Cowboys of the MLB, straddling mediocrity like nobody else. They have only had two seasons with more than 91 wins (1999 and 2012), and yet they have only had one season with more than 93 losses (2001) since the days of the Big Red Machine in the 1970's, and their record over the last 23 years is an average 1826-1835. Looking at the Reds very good pitching staff but underwhelming and suspect lineup, Cincinnati could be destined for another season around the .500 mark. I never thought I would live in a world in which Homer Bailey, a pitcher that has never had a season with an ERA or FIP under 3.30, is getting a six-year, 105 million dollar contract. I do, however, understand the rational behind the deal because although Bailey has still not put everything together, he does have good enough stuff to warrant a 17.5 average annual salary. Bailey throws a lot of fastballs and split-fingers, but could rely a little more on his slider and curveball to keep hitters off balance. When Homer stays around the strike zone, he can be really effective, as shown by his no-hitters in 2012 against the Pirates and 2013 against the Giants (Johnny Vander Meer and Jim Maloney are the only other Reds pitchers to have multiple career no-hitters and he is one of just five pitches to have no-hitters in consecutive seasons along with Wareen Spahn, Sandy Koufax, Steve Busby, and Nolan Ryan). Johnny Cueto, who was 4th in the NL Cy Young in 2012 because of his 2.78 ERA and 0.6 HR/9 rate that year, always seems to come up with a big start when the Reds need it most, and he has a really good slider. Mat Latos, whose win-loss percentage has been in the top five of the NL each of the last two years, Mike "Who needs the minor leagues, I am like Bob Feller, Catfish Hunter, and Sandy Koufax" Leake, and the Reds only lefty in the rotation, Tony Cingrani, finish out a rotation that was in the top 6 in the majors in 2013 in ERA, quality starts, strikeouts, and opponents batting average. After losing on-base machine Shin-Shoo Choo to the Rangers and not making any major additions, a Reds lineup that was 19th in slugging percentage and 20th in total bases last year could be in for some more trouble this season. The top of their lineup with the always steady Brandon Phillips (he has hit 18 home runs four straight seasons), the best hitter in baseball since 2010 with Joey Votto, and Jay "I have the most homers in the NL over the last three years" Bruce could be the best 2-3-4 combination
Milwaukee Brewers/Chicago Cubs Preview:
In every ballpark the Milwaukee Brewers play in this season, Ryan Braun will be the subject of very harsh criticism from the fans in attendance, and deservedly so because his actions over the past three years in regards to performance enhancing drugs and the way he has handled the entire situation with steroids has been reprehensible and downright intolerable. There have been few players in sports over the past several decades that have received true venom from fans everywhere they have gone. Obviously, the reaction that LeBron James got after leaving Cleveland for Miami in 2010 will never be seen again, as the year round bash on LeBron tour, especially his return to the city that God hates, had some of the craziest and most hostile atmospheres you will ever see for a basketball game. The only other time I saw crowds more rancorous and unhinged was when Bane blew up the football field in
The Dark Knight Rises. Some other very notorious sports villains, like Barry Bonds, Conrad Dobler, Roy Keane, and Bill Laimbeer, would also typically get their fair share of abuse from the fans because of their ability to get under players' skin and sometimes play on the dirtier side of the sport (I'm looking at you Dobler). After getting out of a suspension in 2011 for testosterone because of a clear technicality in the process, Braun only accepted a 65 game PED suspension in 2013 after his team was way out of the playoff picture and as he was battling multiple injuries. To make matters worse, his apology could also not have be any less sincere following his suspension as he said, "I realize now that I have made some mistakes," as if he didn't realize he was ruining the reputation of an innocent man back in 2011 or openly lying to everybody by saying he was not taking steroids for three years. While Andy Pettitte gets too much credit for apologizing and moving on from his PED use (remember that Pettitte did not voluntarily come forward with the steroid information but was caught using the drugs), people respected the fact that he admitted to taking the PED's and was forthright about it, which comes in drastic contrast to all the lying that Braun told people. Braun should be booed in every stadium that he enters for his harrowing behavior, but there is no denying that the guy can hit with the best of them in the big leagues. He can spray the ball around the ballpark and because of his quick hands, he is a very good fastball hitter. Carlos Gomez is a lightning rod and is really good in the center field, which helped him have the 4th best defensive WAR since 1918 and become the second Brewers player along with Robin Yount in 1982 to lead or be tied for the lead in the MLB in WAR. The Brew Crew also have a pitching staff that cold surprise some people in the National League. Yovani Gallardo, Matt Garza, and Kyle Lohse form the top of a rotation that is more than capable of being towards the top 10 of the league in ERA, but it remains to be seen how their bullpen will pitch, as their relievers were in the middle of the league in runs allowed and batting average against last year.
They are still playing baseball in Chicago? The Cubs haven't won a playoff game since the Steve Bartmen incident in game 6 of the NLCS against the Marlins more than 10 years ago (nobody seems to remember that Mark Prior was probably left in the game for too long by Dusty Baker and Alex Gonzalez bobbled a potential inning ending double play), and the misery for Cubs fans, something they have grown all so used to, will likely continue once again this year with their third consecutive season under 70 wins (would be their first time since 1947-1951) and their 5th straight year without being over .500 (would be their first time since 1978-1983). Chicago is in a very tough, grueling position right now, but to go forward, you sometimes have to go backwards, and Theo Epstein has had to clean house and get rid of all the bad contracts and old Cubbies that he inherited from former general manager Jim Hendry. Theo got rid of Alfonso Soriano and saved nearly 7 million dollars over the last two years of his contract in the process, traded Carlos Marmol to the Dodgers and Carlos Zambrano to the Marlins and saved nearly 6 million dollars, traded an elderly Scott Feldman for younger pitchers in Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop, sent Geovany Soto and Ryan Dempster to the Rangers and Paul Maholm to the Braves, got real good prospects Mike Olt, Justin Grimm, and C.J. Edwads in a trade with the Rangers for Matt Garza, and received 2013 All-Star Travis Wood for Sean Marshall in a deal with the Reds where they also saved more than 3 million dollars. The Cubs have completely revamped and changed their lineup and pitching staff over the past two years, but this year will bring another season of a lot of losses and a lot rebuilding. The Cubs have not made the World Series since they lost in 7 games to the Tigers in 1945 (the longest active finals drought aside from the Cubs is held by the Sacramento Kings, who haven't been in the NBA Finals since 1951 when they were the Rochester Royals) and they haven't been MLB Champions since 1908 (the longest active championship drought aside from the Cubs is the Cleveland Indians, who haven't won a World Series since the days of Joe Gordon, Ken Keltner, Lou Boudreau, Bob Lemon, and Bob Feller in 1948), and their World Series drought should last another year.
The Cubs do have a lot of very intriguing, but also sometimes perplexing young players that could materialize into a nice core group a guys a few years down the line. Jed Hoyer loves Anthony Rizzo and for good reason, as he drafted him when he was the assistant general manager in Boston in 2007, traded for him in the Adrian Gonzalez deal with the Red Sox when he was the Padres general manager in 2010, and then got him again in a trade as the GM of the Cubs, this time in 2012 in a deal with the Padres for top prospect Andrew Cashner. Hoyer has taken Rizzo with him to three different organizations in two different trades, showing that some front office guys and players can have a stronger connection than J.R. Smith and unnecessary jump shots. Rizzo was 5th in the National League in extra base hits and doubles last year and was only behind Goldschmidt, Votto, Freeman, Belt, A-Gon, and Allen Craig in NL isolated power for first basemen. Although Rizzo can hit for power with his picturesque left handed swing, he struggles against southpaws because he is such a pull hitter, as he hit just .189 against lefties last season. He can also have some difficulties against the fastball on occasion, but Rizzo will only continue to improve in his 3rd full MLB season. In a league that has very few real good shortstops (Troy Tulowitzki is by far the best at short with Andrelton Simmons glove alone being not far behind), Starlin Castro has the ability to be one of the game's best at the position, but he is as frustrating and puzzling of a player as Nene or Andrei Arshavin. Castro can be a guy who can lead the National League in hits (the 4th Cub since they made their last World Series in 1945 to lead the NL in hits along with Billy Williams in 1970, Derrek Lee in 2005, and Juan Pierre in 2006) and be 6th in batting average like he did in 2011 when he had 207 hits and batted .307. He can also be a player that does not even pay any attention in the infield, be in the top two of the National League in errors committed for four straight years, and have an OPS+ of 71, as he did last season. The Cubs also have some young prospects like Junior Lake and triple-A sensation Javier Baez, who hopefully pays more attention at shortstop than Starlin Castro. The Cubs have not had a team ERA under 3.80 since all the way back in 1992, the year Greg Maddux won his first of four consecutive Cy Young Awards, and they should not be expecting to break the drought this season. Edwin Jackson is the NBA's version of Larry King or Mickey Rooney, as he has been on eight different teams since 2005, and has not had one season with any of them with an ERA under 3.60 (why is he still hot commodity at this point). Jeff Samardzija has a pretty good two-seamer and Travis Wood was the Cubs first All-Star since Ted Lilly in 2009, but the Cubs are the Cubs, and they should expect a lot of losses in 2013 (what else is new).
NL West Preview:
There is a rather large divide between the amount of money that the Dodgers and Giants spend in the NL West and the more conservative approach that the Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Padres take within their organization. The Dodgers have the largest opening day payroll in the big leagues at around 235 million dollars, which means that for the first time since 1998, the Yankees will not be at the top of the majors in total salary for their players. The San Francisco Giants are another team that is not afraid to spend some money, as they are in the top 9 of the MLB in payroll for the 5th consecutive season. However, the San Diego Padres, for example, spend so little money that Zack Greinke, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, and Carl Crawford for the Dodgers will be making more money in 2014 than their entire roster. Meanwhile, the Rockies have only been in the top half of the major leagues in payroll once since 2005.
Obviously, as we have learned over the past several years, money does not automatically buy you success or a championship (the Phillies didn't even make the postseason last year with the 3rd highest payroll while the A's, Pirates, and Rays did with three of the five lowest MLB salaries) and you can certainly have a few good years with a core group of players and quality prospects that have come through your franchise to perform. The Padres made the World Series in 1998, the Rockies did so as well in 2007, and the Diamondbacks won the Fall Classic in 2001 while the Dodgers have not been to a World Series since 1988. However, it is much harder to maintain prolonged success when the spending is just not there. The Padres have made the playoffs only 5 times in 45 seasons and the Rockies have only been there 3 times in 21 years whereas the Dodgers have been in the postseason 14 times in the last 41 years alone. The big spending clubs should be at the top of the NL West once again in 2014.
Los Angeles Dodgers/San Francisco Giants Preview:
It is World Series or bust for the big spending Los Angeles Dodgers this
season, an organization that has put together a team worth more than
235 million dollars in salary in hopes of winning their first World
Series since they had Orel Hershiser and pinch hitting, no-legged Kirk
Gibson in 1988. LA is loaded everywhere you look, from their lineup with guys like Carl Crawford, Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, and Andre Either to their pitching staff of Kershaw, Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Dan Haren to their bullpen, highlighted by Brian Wilson and Kenley Jansen. At the plate, especially if Matt Kemp can remain healthy, the Dodgers should improve upon their hitting that was 3rd in the NL in batting average and on-base percentage and 4th in hits last year. It is a little concerning that Adrian Gonzalez seems to have lost some of the power that he once had in San Diego with the Padres, especially the pop he had to take the ball the other way (A-Gon did not hit a single opposite field home run last year, after knocking out 10 to left field in his 36 home run, 119 RBI season in 2008). Despite some of his loss in power, A-Gon is still a very complete hitter because he is going to hit 80 percent of the pitches he sees in the strike zone, regardless if they are fastballs or off-speed stuff, and he is going to drive in a lot of runs, as he has a career batting average of .328 with runners in scoring position. A-Gon has hit above .290 every year since 2010 (he has the 11th best batting average over the last 4 years in the MLB), so the bigger question mark is the enigma that is Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez has all the talent in the world to be one of the game's best shortstops with Troy Tulowitzki (remember when he finished 2nd in the MVP in 2009 when he hit .342 with the Marlins), but it is hard to know if you are going to get the Hanley that is passionate, engaged, and willing to do anything to win on a day-to-day basis. Speaking of people who could never surprise you with their antics, Yasiel Puig is another extraordinarily dynamic, but also sometimes alarming guy for LA. We all saw last year that Puig can do literally anything on a baseball field from running around the bases and causing havoc to throwing guys out from deep right field to just hitting some bombs for home runs, but he can also be rather lazy in the outfield and just make some real careless plays at the plate or on the bases. We will see how Don Mattingly decides to handle the fiery Puig, but one thing Mattingly will not have to worry about is Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, or Haren. In fact, it is not to far fetched to think that Kershaw could one day be in the conversation with Sandy Koufax, Randy Johnson, Warren Spahn, Lefty Grove, and Steve Carlton for the best left handed pitcher of all-time. Greinke is not a bad number two at all to go behind Kershaw, as the 2009 Cy Young Award winner has one of the best sliders in all of baseball (batters have a career .159 batting average against his slider). The Blue Crew certainly have more than enough talent to be remembered as the best LA team since the 1955 Dodger squad that had MVP Roy Campanella, Gil Hodges, Pee Wee Reese, Duke Snider, Carl Furillo, and Don Newcombe or the 1963 Dodger club that featured Frank Howard, Tommy Davis, Don Drysdale, and Cy Young and MVP (the second pitcher to ever do so) Sandy Koufax. However, it is impossible to guarantee anything, even on a team that is as stacked as the 2014 Dodgers, although you can pretty much guarantee that Donald Sterling will not be attending any games at Chavez Ravine any time soon.
The San Francisco Giants have been following a rather odd pattern over the past several years, but as unique of an occurrence as it may be, weird patterns do happen to arise all the time in pro sports. Last year, the Jets became the first team in NFL history to alternate wins and losses through their first 10 games of the season, a pattern they continued until they lost to the Bills and Ravens in consecutive weeks in November thanks to some very poor displays from Geno Smith. From 2009 to 2012, the team that played the Eagles in Philly's home opener went on to win the Super Bowl (In 2009, the Saints beat the Eagles in week 2 and then beat the Colts in the Super Bowl. The Packers beat the Eagles in week 1 in 2010 and went on to beat the Steelers in the Super Bowl. In 2011, the Giants beat the Eagles in week 3 and won the Super Bowl by beating the undefeated Patriots. The Ravens lost to the Eagles in week 2 in 2012, but playing the Eagles in Philly's home opener still helped them beat the 49ers in the Super Bowl). The Giants have been following a similar pattern that is very difficult to explain. In 2009, despite Tim Lincecum becoming the first pitcher since Pedro Martinez in 1999 and 2000 to win back-to-back Cy Young Awards, the Giants missed out on the postseason because their lineup ranked 26th in the MLB in runs scored. The following year, behind a pitching staff that was the best in the big leagues in ERA and batting average against, San Francisco won their first World Series since back in 1954 when they had Johnny Antonelli, Hoyt Wilhelm, Monte Irvin, and Willie Mays. However, in 2011, the Giants regressed once again and missed out on the playoffs entirely, mainly due to their lineup averaging a paltry 3.52 runs per game, the 2nd fewest in the major leagues and their least runs scored in a full season since they went 62-100 in 1985 (that team did not even have somebody hit 20 home runs). This did not stop the Giants from returning the next season and becoming the first team since the 2007 Red Sox to sweep the World Series and the first franchise since the Yankees from 1998 to 2000 to win at least two titles in a three year stretch. Nonetheless, in 2013, the Giants failed to reach the postseason once again, as they had their most losses in a season and their worst divisional finish in the NL West since 2008. Looking at this trend, it means that the Giants are destined to win the World Series this year because of their miss the postseason and then win it all tendency that they have shown since 2009.
If the Giants are going to win the World Series in 2014 and continue their peculiar pattern, they need their rotation to be towards the top of baseball in every pitching category and not with a team ERA outside of the top 20 like they had last year. It feels like Madison Bumgarner has been around the major leagues forever, maybe because he was so good in the Giants World Series run in 2010 when he was just a rookie, but Bumgarner is only 24 years old and is still improving, especially on his curveball and change-up to compliment his already established fastball and slider. Bumgarner was 3rd in the NL in hits per 9 innings, 5th in ERA and WHIP, and 7th in strikeouts, base on balls per 9 innings, and FIP last season, which was largely due to his ability to locate his fastball and strikeout hitters with his nasty slider. Nearly 40 percent of Bumgarner's pitches in 2013 were sliders, which was the 3rd highest rate behind only Ervin Santana and Yu Darvish in baseball, but when you can get 4 inches of downward vertical movement on your slider (the most in the NL), you might as well keep on throwing the pitch. However, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, and Ryan Vogelsong need to have bounce back seasons for the Giants
because they aren't going to the Fall Classic with Cain repeating his worst ever year in the MLB, Tim Lincecum having his 3rd straight season with an ERA above 4.35, and Ryan Vogelsong posting a horrendous 5.73 ERA like he did last year. Of the three, Cain is almost a certainty to have a comeback season because his ERA was just 2.71 over his last 12 starts in 2013 and his ability to command his fastball around the zone is just too good for him to have another poor year. Although the Giants did add the biggest bulldog in all of sports, Tim Hudson, to solidify their rotation, Vogelsong and Lincecum are still pretty big question marks. Vogelsong did suffer a pretty bad hand injury that made him miss much of the season in 2013, but it may be asking a lot of him to return to the pitcher in 2012 who set the Giants single-season record for consecutive quality starts ahead of pitchers like Atlee Hammaker, Gaylord Perry, and Juan Marichal. Meanwhile, Lincecum's dip in velocity on his fastball from 92 to 93 mph all the way down to the high 80's has been a huge cause for concern in San Francisco. Lincecum no longer has the same change of speed on his pitches because his fastball is no longer that much harder than his change-up or slider, which not only allows batters to catch up to his fastball, but also makes his change-up that was once downright unhittable, not as effective anymore. The Giants, however, do have a much improved lineup from the past, one that ranked in the top 10 in batting average, hits, triples, and sacrifice hits for situational hitting in 2013. Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro are more than capable table setters for the Giants big bats of Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, and Pablo Sandoval. Posey and Pence are going to be the Giants consistent hitters in the middle of their lineup (Posey is one of only two Giants to ever lead the National League in batting average in a season along with Barry Bonds) while Belt and Sandoval should provide the power, especially Belt, who had the 9th highest NL adjusted OPS+ and the 10th most extra base hits in 2013.
Arizona Diamondbacks Preview/Colorado Rockies/San Diego Padres Preview:
In 2012 and 2013, the Diamondbacks finished the season at exactly .500 with a record of 81-81 and with a lineup that looks to be pretty solid but nothing special and a pitching staff that does have some concerns, especially after the injury to stud Patrick Corbin, Arizona looks destined for another very average year.
The addition of power hitting Mark Trumbo into the middle of a Diamondbacks lineup that was 26th in the majors in home runs last year will give them some much needed pop. Trumbo hit 29 home runs in 2011, 32 in 2012, and 34 in 2013 with the Angels to give him 95 home runs over the past three years, the 7th most in the major leagues. Trumbo is really a straight pull hitter (he has just 6 career home runs to the opposite field) and left field in Chase Field is only about 330 feet from home plate, which should allow him to pull the ball over the fence with all of the big cuts that he takes on pitches. Arizona will also need to get some production from the players around Paul Goldschimdt because Goldschmidt is going to drive in a lot of runs and get on base at a very high rate. Aaron Hill is definitely declining as he is entering his 11th year in the league at the age of 32, but he can still be one of the league's most consistent second basemen that isn't named Cano, Pedroia, or Kinsler, especially if he can stay healthy because he was 3rd in the NL in total bases, 5th in hits, and 8th in the in OPS in his last full season in 2012. Martin Prado and Gerardo Parra are both solid hitters that can hit for average while Arizona will need a bounce back year from Miguel Montero to help Arizona improve from 14th in the MLB in runs scored, 15 in on-base plus slugging percentage, and 18th in slugging percentage, which were all down from the previous season. Luckily for the Diamondbacks, if all else goes wrong, they will always be able to hop on the back of Paul Goldschmidt, who led the NL in home runs, runs batted in, total bases, extra base hits, slugging percentage, adjusted and regular on-base plus slugging percentage, and adjusted batting runs and wins in 2013. Without Patrick Corbin, though, Arizona's pitching staff could be in for some trouble because Wade Miley, Trevor Cahill, Brandon McCarthy, and Bronson Arroyo are all solid inning eaters but are far from top end rotation guys. Arizona did make a very smart move in bringing in Addison Reed, who was 5th in the AL in saves last season with the White Sox, and will help a Diamondbacks bullpen that was tied with the Astros for the most blown saves in baseball in 2013.
There are only a few things scarier than a pitcher throwing at Coors Field: Carmelo Anthony staying with the New York Knicks, James Harden playing defense, and the Chicago Bulls on offense. With the thin air of Coors Field and the high elevation at the ballpark, it is a hitters dream to step to the plate at the stadium because the ball just flies through the dry air in Colorado like nowhere else. In 1999, Coors Field was the site of 303 total home runs, the most ever at a stadium in one season in MLB history. The stadium has been in the bottom 3 of the majors in runs allowed every year except for once since 2001, and it has been the ballpark that has allowed the most runs in the majors six times in the last thirteen years. National League teams had an average ERA of 3.74 in 2013, but at Coors Field, their ERA went all the way up to 4.29 in Denver. In fact, two years ago, the Rockies had an ERA of 4.41 on the road, but a ridiculously high ERA of 5.97 at home (the next lowest ERA for a team in 2012 at their home stadium was the Red Sox, but all the way down at a 4.75 ERA). Coming off a season in which they put together the 2nd fewest quality starts in baseball, Colorado will need to see a significant improvement from Jorge De La Rosa, Tyler Chatwood, and Juan Nicasio. De La Rosa, who went 16-6 with a 3.76 FIP, is the most likely to help Colorado improve their pitching because he can mix in his slider and change-up with his mid 90's fastball. Even with the addition of Brett Anderson, a guy that will provide the Rockies with some left handed pitching, they will need to score a lot of runs in order to stay somewhere around the .500 mark, and they do have Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki to help them with that. Cargo and Tulo are the best 3-4 combo in all of baseball (Chris Davis and Adam Jones or Prince Fielder and Adrain Beltre might disagree with that), and could both be the best at their respective positions in the MLB. As long as Gonzalez and Tulowitzki stay healthy, they are both going to hit at least 25 home runs, bat above .300, and have an OPS around .900, which means that they will need some help from the guys around them in the lineup. The chances that Michael Cuddyer leads the NL in batting average and is 4th in slugging percentage like he did in 2013 is highly unlikely, and Justin Morneau looks nothing like the guy that won the AL MVP in 2006. Coors Field could be the site of a lot of hits and home runs and the Rockies 5th straight season under 85 wins.
The San Diego Padres have had three consecutive seasons with more than 85 losses and they have not been to the postseason since 2005 when they still fell to the St. Louis Cardinals in 4 games in the NLDS. With a team that just does not have the talent of most of the other clubs in the big leagues, the only thing people in San Diego will be looking forward to is another year where the Chargers win anywhere from 7 to 9 games and blow endless amount of opportunities in the 4th quarter. The Padres pitching staff has a lot of unknowns and question marks and pitchers that they are desperately hoping will have a bounce back season in 2014. Like almost every other MLB team that has been affected with the epidemic of elbow and shoulder problems going around baseball, the Pads have already been hit by the injury bug. Cory Luebke (what a great name), who had a 2.92 FIP and a 1.067 WHIP in 2011, will need his second Tommy John Surgery in the last three years, and the Padres gamble on signing Josh Johnson to a one-year deal and hoping he would return to his 2010 form when he led the NL in ERA, ERA+, FIP, and HR/9 also looks to have failed because Johnson may need to get his second career Tommy John Surgery. Even their pitchers that will be out there in 2014 are looking for redemption years or are guys with very little starting pitching experience. Ian Kennedy had a 2.88 ERA, the 6th best WHIP in the NL, the 7th highest strikeouts/base on balls ratio, and a National League leading 21 wins in 2011, but since then, he is a very sub-par 22-22 with a 4.43 ERA, a 4.30 FIP, a 1.345 WHIP, and a 9.1 hits per 9 innings. Tyson Ross and Robbie Erlin are both unproven starters and Andrew Cashner, the highly rated prospect the Padres received in the Anthony Rizzo trade, can hit the high 90's with his blazing fastball and has a pretty good slider, but he needs to improve upon his pitch locations in order to take the next step. As if the Padres starting rotation didn't have enough question marks, their lineup will need a lot of guys to have comeback years in 2014 just so that they can contend for their first winning season since they had Adrian Gonzalez, Mat Latos, and a Heath Bell that could actually pitch without grooving fastballs over the plate in 2010. Carlos Quentin has shown that when he is healthy he can hit in the 25 home run range and Chase Headley became the 2nd Padres player along with Dave Winfield in 1979 to lead the NL in RBI's when he did so in 2012. However, a bating order of players like Yonder Alonson, Jedd Gyorko, Chris Denorfia, Will Venable, and Seth Smith is nothing that opposing pitchers are going to fear.
