2014-2015 AFC East Predictions

AFC East:

The New England Patriots have dominated the AFC East unlike any other team in a single division in all of sports (basically, they have been the Microsoft of the AFC East). The Pats have won the division 11 of the past 13 years with the only exceptions being in 2002 when they went 9-7 with a second year Tom Brady - the last time they didn't have double-digit wins in a season - and in 2008 when they joined the 1985 Denver Broncos as the only teams to not make the playoffs despite winning at least 11 games in a season (the Seahawks won the NFC West with 7 wins in 2010 for perspective) after they went 11-5 with a Belichick is the true genius inspired Matt Cassel replacing an injured Tom Brady at quarterback for the entire season (ironically, the next year in 1986 the Broncos and John Elway had the same record in the AFC West and were actually the 2 seed in the conference, the same season they beat the Browns in "The Drive"). The Patriots have had an unprecedented run of success since Belichick ditched the Jets for New England in 2000 in a move somebody with true integrity like Jason Kidd would never do, as a 158-50 record over the past 11 years with 8 AFC Championship Game appearances, 5 Super Bowl appearances, and 3 Super Bowls is something that Browns and Lions fans wouldn't even be able to dream about because it seems so distant and fanciful to their doormat franchises. Tom Brady is one of the top 4 quarterbacks of all-time along with Johnny Unitas, Joe Montana, and Peyton Manning (apologizes to Otto Graham, John Elway, and Dan Marino) and Belichick is one of the top 8 greatest coaches ever along with legends Vince Lombardi, Paul Brown, George Halas, Tom Landry, Bill Walsh, Chuck Noll, and Don Shula (sorry Joe Gibbs, Curly Lambeau, and Bill Parcells).

However, it is a lot easier to be the class of your division when everybody around you is about as incompetent as Mark Wahlberg and Will Ferrell in The Other Guys. The Bills have not made the playoffs since they fatally lost the Music City Miracle to Frank Wycheck, Kevin Dyson, and Tennessee Titans all the way back in the 1999-2000 season. Over the past 14 years, the Bills have been 88-136 with 8 seasons of double-digit losses, have trotted out the likes of Alex Van Pely, Rob Johnson, J.P. Losman, Kelly Holcomb, Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Brohm, Jeff Tuel, Thad Lewis, and now EJ Manuel to play quarterback, seen a variety of their top picks excel on other teams whether it be Willis McGahee in Baltimore, Donte Whitner in San Francisco, Marshawn Lynch in Seattle, or Paul Posluszny in Jacksonville, and had Donald Trump and Bon Jovi make runs at buying the team (the only thing worse that could happen to the Bills is if they moved to Toronto and had Rob Ford replace Doug Marrone as head coach and Doug Whaley as general manager. On second thought, no longer having Doug Marrone patrolling the sidelines wouldn't be the worst of things for Buffalo). It has not been much better in Miami despite their owner Stephen Ross spending huge chucks of money on big name free agents to try and make the team relevant down in South Beach, as they have brought in guys like wide receiver Mike Wallace, left tackle Branden Albert, cornerbacks Brent Grimes and Cortland Finnegan, and defensive tackles Randy Starks and Earl Mitchell over the past two free agencies. The Fins have not won a playoff game since they beat the Colts in the 2000 Wild Card round with Jay Fiedler playing QB - their defense with Trace Armstrong, Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas, Larry Izzo, Sam Madison, and Brock Marion was ferocious - and unlike the Packers, who went from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers, the Colts who went from Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck, or the Oilers/Titans who went from Warren Moon to Steve McNair, they have still not found a reliable starter since Dan Marino retired in 1999, playing everybody from Sage Rosenfels to Tyler Thigpen over that time span. Finally, outside of the two seasons in which they somehow made back-to-back AFC Championship Game appearances in 2009 and 2010, the Jets have been full of drama and juicy story lines whether it be Tebow or Sanchez or Revis, but have not done all that much to challenge the Pats in the East. New York has not had a winning season in each of the past three years, the only other teams with that unfortunate mark are the Dolphins, Bills, Jaguars, Raiders, Bucs, and Rams, and Rex Ryan's time at MetLife Stadium may be running on thin ice.

New England Patriots:

Before any sentence can even be muttered about the Patriots offense in 2013-2014, it has come as a prerequisite to say, "Tom Brady had limited pass catching weapons," or "Tom Brady had a depleted receiving core," or "the Patriots lacked the options on the exterior to exploit a defense down the field," and that may be fair to say about the team (they did have the second most drops and second worst drops percentage in the NFL last season, only behind the Detroit Lions). Rob Gronkowski had two different surgeries on his forearm and then back surgery in the off-season, which caused him to miss the team's first 6 games, and then tore his ACL and MCL, which caused him to miss the club's last 3 games and the postseason. Aaron Hernandez went from 910 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2011 to being indicted for murder by 2013 and became the biggest criminal the country has seen since Phil Spector or Paul Kelly. Brady was left with a receiving core of rookies Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins, who both dropped so many passes that they made Stevie Johnson look like he has sure hands (they were two of three NFL players along with Browns running back Chris Ogbonnaya with at least 7 drops and less than 40 catches in 2013-2014), and Danny Amendola, who was a free agency disappointment in coming over from St. Louis in the off-season. However, outside of three years with Randy Moss from 2007 to 2009 when Moss caught 47 touchdowns in three seasons including a record 23 in 2007 and the 2011 year when Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez combined for 33 touchdowns and each eclipsed 900 yards, Brady has never really had top end receivers and he has been just fine in New England. Now, that is not to say that if Brady had a receiving core like the one in Chicago with Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, or Washington with DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, and Andre Roberts, or San Francisco with Boldin, Crabtree, Steve Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, and Vernon Davis that he wouldn't be a much more efficient quarterback. What I am saying, though, is that Brady's receiving core was better than many of the groups he has had in the past in New England and that Brady should be held accountable for some of the mistakes he made last year, particularly when he missed so many throws high against Denver in the first half of the Patriots 26-16 AFC Championship Game loss to the Broncos. Furthermore, Julian Edelman, was terrific last season and may have been just as lethal as Wes Welker in that slot receiver role for New England in helping the team constantly move the chains with short routes to the sidelines and slants over the middle, so exclusively blaming the receivers for some of the Pats offense struggles is just not warranted. Brady struggled against the blitz last season, especially on third down, and although that certainly had something to do with his receivers not getting off the line quick enough and making plays, Brady took too many sacks to cost him team opportunities to score in the opposing territory.

Despite all of that talk, the Patriots should still win the AFC East once again this season by several games (in the last four years, New England has won the division by 3 games, 5 games twice, and then 4 games last season), and despite some of his struggles last season, Tom Brady is not regressing to the mean and is still a top four NFL quarterback along with Manning, Rodgers, Brees. The Pats have completely moved on from the Aaron Hernandez fiasco, the most paranoid man since Joseph Stalin, and Brady should have more continuity and familiarity with his receiving core this year of Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman, Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins, newly acquired Brandon LaFell from Carolina (sorry Cam Newton but your receivers are all but gone), and for Pats fans sake, hopefully a healthy Rob Gronkowski. Gronk has been limited in practice and will likely take some time to come back and return to his normal self, but the Pats really need the big tight end for the stretch run and the postseason more than anything else. His addition to New England's offense is so important and cannot be understated because of his value to Brady in unlocking defenses over the middle and in the red zone especially. At 6-6, Gronk is such a big body that it is almost impossible to get in front of him when he runs those inside seam routes and crossing routes over the center of the field, and with the new NFL rules, you also can't hit him up high to jar the ball loose (if you can't hit high, you have to hit low and remember T.J. Ward, now of the Denver Broncos, cost Gronk the end of his season last year when he got him down in the knees, the only spot you can hit now without getting flagged for unnecessary contact; thanks Roger Goodell). New England had a 58.11 red zone touchdown percentage in 2013-2014, which was still good enough for 8th in the NFL, but with Tom Brady at QB, only in 2009 did they have a lower touchdown success rate between the 20 and the goal line in the last 10 years and that had a lot to do with Gronk's absence. Clearly, in the red zone everything is compressed, so it is harder for smaller guys like Edelman and Amendola to find space and open field because everything is so clustered, and the two combined for just 8 touchdowns last season. New England dearly missed having the big body of Gronk to throw to up high in the red zone when things got tight and there were not as many open windows to throw to underneath. With Gronk returning, it not only gives Brady a dynamic option in the red zone and when he is under pressure and needs to get rid of the ball because of Gronk's ability to out muscle any defender whether it be a bigger but slower linebacker or a quicker but smaller safety (unless it is Kam Chancellor because he is just huge), but it will also create more room for guys like Amendola, Dobson, and Thompkins to go down the field with all of the attention that Gronk's presence down the middle of the field deservedly creates (his presence off the field also seemingly creates a lot of notice amongst people, but that is for another time). Obviously, the more time that Brady's line of Nate Solder, Josh Kline (replacing Logan Mankins), Ryan Wendell, Dan Connolly, and Sebastian Vollmer gives him, the better he will be at spreading the ball around and getting the running game going with their assortment of backs including Stevan "Nobody Lost More Fumbles Than Me Last Season" Ridley, Shane "I Am Such A Good Pass Catching Tailback Just Call Me Kevin Faulk 2.0" Vereen, Brandon Bolden, and James "Watch Out For Me Because I'm Good Even Though I Played Behind Montee Ball In College" White.

People often tend to forget with Tom Brady and the Pats offense, just how concentrated the club has been with their running game since Bill Belichick took over as head coach at the turn on the century. Obviously, the emphasis on the running game has gone away a little bit over the years with Brady maturing as a quarterback and the league rules changing in such a way where any time a defensive back touches a receiver, it is a holding or pass interference penalty. Nonetheless, New England is one of the more balanced teams in the NFL (something the Lions and Cowboys could learn from), and are at their best when they are able to move the sticks with the run game and then set up the play action for Brady when he has more time to set his feet and really step into his throws without defenders in his face. Only the Bills, Jets, Chargers, and Bengals averaged more rushing attempts per game than the Patriots last season in the AFC and that was only the case for Buffalo and New York out of necessity because you really don't want to see EJ Manuel and you really, really don't want to see Geno Smith sit back and throw the ball 35-40 times a contest unless you are the opposing defense. In 2012, New England led the league in total yards (6,846) and points per game (34.8) largely because their 9.2 rushing first downs per game led the league (it has still not been bettered by any other franchise over the past 11 seasons), but last year they averaged just 7.1 rushing first downs per contest and were down to 7th in total yardage in the NFL. The Pats have always liked to wear teams down in the Brady-Belichick days with the running game and then set up the pass as the game goes along, but they do have some offensive line question marks. New England traded long-time left guard Logan Mankins to the Tampa Bay Bucs because of some issues with contract restructuring in very Patriots like fashion and their replacement, Josh Kline, only started one game in his rookie season last year. Furthermore, Sebastian Vollmer is coming off a broken leg and missed the second half of the year in 2013-2014 with the injury. Offensively, however, the Patriots have Tom Brady and the other teams in the AFC East do not possess the same advantage, so scoring a lot of points will not be too tough for this Patriots team in the regular season, but they will have to be hitting on all cylinders to win their first Super Bowl since back in 2004 (it has been longer than you think). Time is of the essence for an aging Tom Brady, who is already 37 years old, but they should have no problem rolling through the AFC East and finishing with a 11-5 or 12-4 record like they do almost every year. I also say that in large part when you consider the fact that they will have Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo, the lynch pins of their defense, both returning from injuries that cost them their season in 2013, Darrelle Revis shutting down one side of the field at cornerback and bringing back Revis Island, and the very athletic Chandler Jones rushing the passer from the right defensive end spot in the Pats much improved 4-3 defense.

Miami Dolphins:

There are certain quarterbacks coming into this season that are a very delicate point in their careers amongst fans of the league and NFL teams, and if they play well, they will have faith restored in their ability to lead a club to the promise land, but if they don't have a good season, serious doubts about their future as a starting quarterback and the amount of success that they can have if the NFL may come into thinking amongst everybody involved with a particular franchise. That is not to say that if certain quarterbacks don't have a good season this year that they will no longer have a job as a starter in this league, although it could in some instances, but it does means that serious doubt will be cast over their ability to take a team deep into the postseason and clubs may need to re-evaluate if this is their quarterback of the future (for example, the Vikings did not see enough out of Matt Cassel or Christian Ponder and the Raiders saw nothing positive out of Terrelle Pryor and Matt Flynn in 2013 to give either team the confidence that any one of their respective quarterbacks could be the long term solution for the club behind center, so Minnesota took Teddy Bridgewater out of Louisville with the last pick of the first round despite some of his arm concerns and Oakland took big throwing Derek Carr from Fresno St. in the second round of the 2014 NFL draft despite some of his brother concerns in hopes that they can be the guy for the next couple of years). Some of those signal callers that are at a very make-or-break point this season include Jake Locker, Carson Palmer, and Jay Cutler and possibly if you want to stretch this category out a little bit, Andy Dalton if he gets to the playoffs and fails to win a playoff game for the 4th straight season, Robert Griffin III (Kirk Cousins is right on his back in Washington), and even Eli Manning after his 27 interception laughing stock of a season last year although I think he needs maybe one or two more poor years to put him at a breaking point because of his two Super Bowl wins against Tom Brady and the Pats in 2007 and then again in 2011. However, the first name that comes to mind under this classification of quarterbacks is certainly Miami Dolphins third-year starter out of Texas A&M, the new factory for quarterbacks, Ryan Tannehill. After a 7-9 year as a rookie and a 8-8 season that came up just shy of the postseason in 2013-2014 because of some really bad losses at the end of the season including a 19-0 defeat to the Bills in week 16 and a 20-7 clunker against the Jets in the final week of the season at Sun Life Stadium, Tannehill needs to prove himself down in Miami this year for the Dolphins to put their complete trust in him going forward as their franchise QB. Tannehill throws a really nice ball, and he has a strong arm to get the pigskin down the field in a hurry, even when he is on the run and outside of the pocket, which is perfectly suited for a team that has the down the field receiving threat of Mike Wallace breaking the top off defensive coverages with his outstanding speed. Tannehill spreads the ball out nicely, despite too many of his passes getting tipped at the line of scrimmage (he had one game in a 2012 loss when two of his tipped passes against the Texans resulted in picks), and he isn't afraid to gun some throws into tight coverage, but like many young quarterbacks, his decision making needs to improve, and he needs to get rid of the ball quicker while not staring down receivers when doing so from the pocket. Tannehill is probably a 4th level QB and somewhere in the range of 20-25 amongst NFL single callers and he will have to make a little bit of a jump into the level of Nick Foles, Alex Smith, and Andy Dalton in order for the Fins to be all-in on him.

As much as this is a make-or-break year for Ryan Tannehill in year three, the Dolphins are almost at a franchise crossroads entering the 2014-2015 season because they either need to make some strides forward or change the way their roster is shaped under new general manager Dennis Hickey because the Bills, Browns, Lions, and possibly Texans and Redskins are the only teams that have been less successful than Miami since 2000. The Fins have been so mediocre since Marino's retirement 14 years ago with a record of 107-117 since the turn of the century, not good enough to challenge in the AFC with the likes of the Pats, Colts, Steelers, Ravens, and Broncos but also not bad enough to blow the whole thing up and start all over again (they have finished between 6 and 8 wins for 5 straight seasons since 2009 and have only had three top 7 draft picks since 1993). The Dolphins have tried for years to put some nice complimentary pieces around their quarterbacks on the offensive side of the ball, and despite past failures with guys like Jake Grove, Ernest Wilford, and to a certain extent Brandon Marshall, they have tried to make some strides in improving their offensive line, which was just terrible last season, and receiving group. Miami signed Branden Albert to a 5-year, 47 million dollar contract in the off-season to hold down their left tackle spot, which was a good move since Albert is coming off his best season with the Chiefs in 2013, and drafted Ja'Wuan James out of Tennessee in the first round, who is a much better pass protector than dominate force in the run game. The Dolphins desperately needed some new linemen to keep Ryan Tannehill on his feet and Albert and James should provide that in the passing game. Last season, Tannehill was hit more than almost any other quarterback in the NFL and had very little time in the pocket to go through his progressions because of constant pressure in his face. Miami was dead last in the NFL in QB sacks per game at 3.6, the most in a year since 2006, and in plays without the opposition sending extra men on a blitz, teams were still able to sack Tannehill 30 times, the most in the league by a good margin. Tannehill really struggled with his decision making when he faced pressure in 2013, which he did on nearly 23 percent of his passing attempts, so Miami was often put into long down-and-distances because of sacks and errant throws. With Mike Pouncey on the PUP list while still recovering from hip surgery, the Fins will be starting five entirely different offensive lineman from last season, which is a positive sign in the sense that they were proactive in the off-season and didn't just sit back after their QB was constantly knocked around last season like the Texans did with David Carr, but it is also a little bit worrying since they have barely worked together as an offensive unit. If the Dolphins are able to run the ball this season with new back from Denver Knowshon Moreno along with second-year tailback Lamar Miller, it will take a lot of pressure off the back of Tannehill. The Fins were only ahead of the Browns, Steelers, and Ravens in the AFC in rushing yards per game in 2013-2014 and were 27th in the NFL in rushing touchdowns last year, which put everything on the shoulders of Tannehill. They will need to be more balanced this year to help out Tannehill and get their offensive line pushing forward in the running game.

Much like how their offense has some really nice features (their receiving core with Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline, and Charles Clay) and also some real question marks (offensive line and running game) and would be categorized overall as fairly average to below average, the same can be said for their defense and their entire team in general (essentially, they are headed for another 7-9 or 8-8 season and a year of mediocrity). The Dolphins were 24th in rushing yards allowed per game last year at nearly 125 yards and as a Colts fans, I know what it is like to have opposing teams tail backs constantly running all over you on Sundays, so they need to improve on that front or feel the misery I have become so accustomed too over the years (as an optimistic Colts fan, however, with the newly acquired 30-million dollar Arthur Jones from Baltimore, Montori Hughes, and Cory Redding up front in the 3-4, Indy is going to have their best run defense since they ranked 15th in rushing yards per game in 2007 and went 13-3). Like many teams with below average rush defenses, Miami does have some dynamic pass rushers to get to the quarterback because their defensive ends just shoot down their lanes on the outside of offensive tackles and get to the QB on occasion, especially in obvious passing situations, but also leave openings in between the guard and the tackle in the running game. Aldon Smith, DeMarcus Ware, and Miami defensive end Cameron Wake are the only defenders to have two seasons of 14 or more sacks since 2010 and only Robert Mathis and Mario Williams had more sacks in the AFC than Miami's other defensive end, Olivier Vernon, last season, who came up with 11.5 including 7 in his last 7 games. In the secondary, any team that has to be heavily reliant on the very erratic and unpredictable Cortland Finnegan, like Miami is going to have to do this year with second-year players Will Davis and Jamar Taylor as their only other main cornerbacks, is a little nerve wrecking. Miami probably did make an upgrade in bringing in safety Louis Delmas from the Lions and letting the worse Chris Clemons, not the former Seattle and now Jacksonville one, go to Houston, but it may not make up enough for some of the defensive woes that the team has in the run game and with the unreliable Finnegan at the other starting corner spot across from Brent Grimes. Expect another year of .500 football from a very mediocre Miami Dolphins team and more head scratching and pondering of what to do moving froward with the club.

New York Jets/Buffalo Bills:

It is the Jets and the Bills. They are starting Geno Smith and EJ Manuel at quarterback respectively, two guys who make me confident in the abilities of Shaun Hill and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Do I need to say anything more? They are actually two teams that have a lot of similarities when you really come to think about it. New York and Buffalo both have second year quarterbacks that did not show nearly enough in their rookie seasons to give their fan bases any confidence in them going forward. When Manuel was on the field last year and not dealing with his knee injury, he showed his athleticism and ability to throw the ball on the run, but he still needs to improve on his pocket awareness this upcoming season. Geno Smith looked out of his comfort zone at times last season, like the game was just moving too fast for him, and he will have to be, at the bare minimum, a servicable quarterback for the Jets to do anything in 2014-2015. The Jets and Bills were also two teams that ranked at the top of the AFC in rushing play percentage in 2013 despite the fact that Chris Ivory's only good game came against the Saints, his former team, and C.J. Spiller single-handled ruined 30 percent of all fantasy football leagues last season when he went late in the first round and had 2 touchdowns all year long and had 23 rushing yards or less in 5 out of the 15 games he played in for Buffalo. The clubs have some serious defensive problems heading into this season despite the Jets very solid interior and Bills above average secondary, as New York's cornerback situation is in such disarray that Dimitri Patterson ran away from the team in fear of what was going to come in the future and the Bills lack the quality linebackers that you need in a 4-3 defense to stop the run (they ranked 28th in rushing yards allowed per game in 2013 and that was with a Marcell Dareus that didn't come to camp way overweight and a healthy Kiko Alonso, who will be out for the entirety of the season with a torn ACL). New York and Buffalo also have new wide receivers to help their young quarterbacks, as the Jets spent the big bucks for Eric Decker and the Bills traded up with the Browns to acquire Sammy Watkins. Nonetheless, expect 5-11 or 6-10 seasons for New York and Buffalo and top 10 picks in the 2015 Draft with questions circling around the teams all season long about future quarterback prospects such as Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Brett Hundley, Connor Cook, and Kevin Hogan. Also expect Rex Ryan and Doug Marrone to be looking for jobs this off-season and Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson of the Jets defensive line and Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, and Leodis McKelvin of the Bills defense wishing they had more capable offenses to help them win some more football games. New York football teams are in for another tough season, especially if the new look Giants offense mirrors their miserable performance in the pre-season and the Jets and Bills play the sub-par football must people expect from them in 2014-2015.

2014 NFL Draft Podcast

Fantasy Football Week 9 Preview

There is no bigger fan attraction in American sports, and arguably all of entertainment, than the National Football League. While the Thursday night games on the NFL Network are certainly not the best representation of what pro football has to offer (the lethargic Jets-Patriots week 2 game for example), NFL Sundays have become a larger than life spectacle. Although serious concerns have begun to circulate about the safety of football and the long-term effects of concussions on players, the NFL has never been as popular as it is today. The league is in an age where there are more quality quarterbacks than ever before (outside of Jacksonville, Oakland, and Cleveland), and quarterbacks often have a powerful impact on the following of the sport. Not only is the NFL blessed with two of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time (Peyton Manning and Tom Brady) and a panoply of Super Bowl winners (Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Bress, Joe Flacco, and Ben Roethlisberger), but it is also very fortunate to have its future lined up with a bevy of young quarterback stars (Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck). The NFL is likely in the mist of its best quarterback era since the 1990's, a time when guys like John Elway, Dan Marino, Warren Moon, Steve Young, Jim Kelly, Troy Aikman, and Brett Favre were throwing around the football.

However, there is something that people have become more worried, obsessive, and neurotic about than actual football: fantasy football. The online contest has taken over the lives of countless Americans and become bigger than the game itself. I'm sure that there were an array of Redskins fans who were somewhat satisfied that Aaron Rodgers picked their defense apart for an easy 480 yards and 4 touchdowns in week 2 because he got them more than 30 fantasy points. How many Cardinals fans were faintly pleasured that Jimmy Graham had 134 yards and 2 touchdowns against their team in week 3? I'm assuming that the 10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans in all of Florida were even happy that their catastrophe of a team allowed 296 passing yards and 4 total touchdowns to Nick Foles in week 6. There is even a successful tv show based around a fantasy football league (The League). So, if you're a crazed fantasy football fanatic, here are some things to keep an eye on in week 9 of your season.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense at Buffalo Bills:

When last year's pro bowl rosters were announced, the biggest surprise to most fans wasn't the fact that both Richard Sherman (8 interceptions) and Alfred Morris (Redskins record 1,613 rushing yards) were left off the team, but that the Kansas City Chiefs had 6 pro bowlers despite going 2-14. However, outside of the Chiefs atrocious quarterback play (only John Skelton had a worst QB rating than Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn amongst quarterbacks that threw at least 175 passes), Kansas City actually had a lot of talent, especially on the defense side of the ball. Alex Smith's steadiness behind center (only 4 interceptions in 286 pass attempts) has brought new life to Kansas City this season, and the Chiefs stout defense is proving that it is more than capable of containing any offense in the NFL. With Dontari Poe clogging up the middle of the field, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali have been able to dominate off the edge in the Chiefs 3-4 scheme. The outside linebackers have combined for 20 sacks and 5 forced fumbles and are looking to become the first pair of teammates to each finish in the top 5 in the league in sacks since Adewale Ogunleye and Jason Taylor did so in 2003 with the Miami Dolphins. As we have seen in the past, a dominate pass rush can mask the weaknesses of a defensive secondary because of the constant pressure that a quarterback faces from a dominate defense front. The New York Giants 2007 and 2011 Super Bowl victories were characterized by a strong pass rush (Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora in 2007 and Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck in 2011) despite some definite holes that the team had in the secondary during both championship runs. However, the fact that Kansas City has a solid secondary makes it that much more difficult to avoid the pass rush because opposing quarterbacks have to hold onto the ball to find open receivers. With three of the leagues upper echelon defensive backs (Brandon Flowers, Sean Smith, and Daunta Robinson) and the crafty Eric Berry, the Chiefs are 4th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (205.8) and lead the league in points allowed per game (12.3). In fact, in 8 games, the Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 points. Thus, when an injury plagued Buffalo Bills team, who will likely be down to their third quarterback within the first 9 weeks of the season (Thad Lewis is listed as doubtful with a rib injury), take on the Chiefs, expect a big fantasy output from Kansas City's defense. The Chiefs, who have already had four fantasy games with at least 20 points, should be salivating knowing that they will likely be facing either Matt Flynn (somehow signed a 20.5 million dollar contract with the Seahawks after literally one good game, and then proceeded to get benched before the season even began) or Jeff Tuel (so bad against the Browns after replacing EJ Manuel that the Bills went to their practice squad QB). Expect more of the same this weekend in Buffalo: another performance by C.J. Spiller that makes you wonder why in the world you picked him in the first round before LeSean McCoy and Matt Forte and another dominating Chiefs defense showing.

Jake Locker vs the St. Louis Rams:

You won't get an argument from me if you think that last year's NFL draft will eventually go down in history as the best quarterback draft (Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brock Osweiler, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Kirk Cousins) since 1983 (John Elway, Todd Blackledge, Jim Kelly, Tony Eason, Ken O'Brien, Dan Marino). Due to the phenomenal quarterback play of some of the 2012 draftees, people have neglected to realize that the 2011 draft class has actually far exceeded expectations. Von Miller, Aldon Smith, and J.J. Watt are likely the three best pass rushers in the entire league and aside from Calvin Johnson, who is legitimately a transformer, A.J. Green and Julio Jones are arguably the most dynamic wide receivers in the NFL. Patrick Peterson is so talented and athletic that the Arizona Cardinals even play him on offense from time to time. However, what has added early credence to the argument that the 2011 draft class could be one of the best of all-time is that Jake Locker has been playing at a very high level this year. Locker is an extremely underrated fantasy option considering his dual threat capabilities in Tennessee's new offense under first year coordinator Dowell Loggains. In 5 starts this season, Locker has only thrown 1 interception and his passer rating of 97.1 is the 8th highest in the entire league. Locker's mobility also causes defenses a lot of trouble because he can escape the pocket and run for first downs. While he is still regaining strength in his right knee and hip, which he injured in week 4 against the Jets, Locker is a quarterback that can certainly run for a touchdown every few weeks. Furthermore, the Rams are a defense that Tennessee can definitely exploit. In the Titans 3 victories against the Steelers, Chargers, and Jets, the team ran for an average of 120 rushing yards. However, in their 4 losses against the Texans, Chiefs, Seahawks, and 49ers, the Titans averaged a measly 90 yards per contest. Locker is not a quarterback who is going to throw the ball 40-45 times in a game and pick apart a defense. However, with a solid run game, he can be very effective, especially with his scrambling ability. The Rams are a defense that ranks 27th in the league in rushing yards allowed (929 in 8 games) and their defense front of Chris Long, Kendall Langford, Michael Brockers, and Robert Quinn is nothing to fear. Tennessee's run game will likely find some success against St. Louis behind their massive offensive line with guys like Andy Levitre and Chance Warmack, which should thereby open up the field for Locker to have a big fantasy day.

Pierre Garcon vs the San Diego Chargers:

Anybody who has watched the Redskins this season could tell you that the team has a panoply of concerns, mainly the fact that their defense has allowed an average of 32.7 points per game through their first 7 contests. However, the Skins offense has people even more worried because the group has looked a shell of the team that finished at the top of the NFL in rushing yards in 2012. It is hard to argue the notion that the Washington Redskins entire offense dynamic changed after RGIII torn his ACL in last year's NFC divisional playoff round loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Despite the fact that Griffin has looked a little better each week on the field, it is evident that he lacks the explosiveness that made him such a weapon last season. The Skins obviously don't want to risk any future injures to Robert Griffin III, which has restricted their play calling to keeping RGIII in the pocket throwing the ball rather than allowing him to make plays down the field with his feet. Griffin has only had 2 games in which he ran the ball for at least 40 yards this season. The unpredictability of Washington's offense made it so difficult for defenses to defend both the run and the pass last season. Without the threat of RGIII keeping the ball on Washington's read option, defenses have been able to key on Alfred Morris, which has only allowed the back, who set the Redskins single-season rushing record last year, to have one game in which he ran for more than 95 yards. Washington has been throwing the ball much more from the pocket this season than last year, which should result in some big games for Pierre Garcon in the near future. Garcon has been very solid so far this year, but he has yet to break out for some bigger games. The wide out has had at least 58 yards in all but one of the Redskins matchups, but he's only been over the 100 yard barrier one time. However, Garcon is destined to have a breakout game this weekend against a sub-par San Diego secondary. Garcon is undoubtedly the Skins best receiving threat, as he has been targeted 78 times in 7 games, which is the 5th most in the NFL only behind A.J. Green, Vincent Jackson, Cecil Shorts, and Calvin Johnson. The balls are going to continue to come Garcon's way as Washington doesn't have any other real receiving options, which means he should have plenty of opportunities to make some plays. Unlike some other receivers, Garcon is also very crafty after he catches the ball, as his 276 yards after catch are the best for any wide receiver in the league. Washington's defense wouldn't be able to stop Jacksonville (that's saying something), so there should be a lot of points scored in the nation's capital this weekend. Meanwhile, Derek Cox or Shareece Wright will likely have the matchup with Garcon, both of whom Garcon should be able to take advantage of in the big week 9 game.

T.Y. Hilton vs the Houston Texans:

The Colts victory over the Denver Broncos could not have been much better from an Indianapolis perspective. The Colts fans got to rightfully celebrate and recognize the accomplishments of their beloved quarterback of 14 years in a very touching pre-game ceremony, and then they got to beat his undefeated team in route to a 5-2 start and a 2 game division lead in the AFC South. However, there was one thing in the game that could change the course of the entire NFL season: the devastating torn ACL suffered by Reggie Wayne. Wayne has been a steady presence in the Colts organization for 13 years and Sunday will mark the first game in an astonishing 15 years that the Colts will be taking the field without Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne in the lineup. Wayne has been by far Andrew Luck's favorite target over the past two seasons, as his 106 catches last year were only eclipsed by his 2010 campaign of 111 catches. In fact, Reggie had 46 more receptions than anybody else on the Colts team last season (Donnie Avery). Without Wayne on the field, the ball is going to have to go to somebody; step in T.Y. Hilton. Much like a DeSean Jackson or Mike Wallace, Hilton is a guy with blazing quickness and can break the lid off any NFL defense. However, Hilton and Luck have rarely been on the same page this season to create some big plays down the field in the passing game. In 5 of the Colts 7 games, Hilton has been held under 46 yards without a reception of more than 19 yards. However, in the other two games, Hilton had 124 yards including a 47 yard catch against the Dolphins and a 140 yard game with two touchdowns including a 73 yard reception versus the Seahawks. With Wayne out of the lineup and the Colts unable to create a productive running game despite the trade with the Browns for Trent Richardson, expect more of the latter than the former from Hilton. Hilton will likely get more opportunities to stretch the field this weekend against the Texans and he will therefore have more chances to make plays than ever before. Under defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, Houston like to play a lot of man-to-man defense with corner backs Kareem Jackson and Johnathan Joseph. For Hilton to break a big play loose, all he needs is a step on a defensive back and he could be gone with his rare speed.

Chip Kelly's Offensive System Can Work In the NFL

Over the past ten years, the NFL has seen a dramatic transformation in the way the game is played and it is no longer your father's league. With a bevy of new rules benefiting the vertical passing game, teams are throwing the ball at a historic rate. For example, Detroit Lions quarterback Matt Stafford attempted 727 passes this season, which is an average of more than 45 passes per game. Furthermore, old NFL cliches are becoming quickly outdated. The notion that rookie quarterbacks need time to develop and can't play right away and that college coaches can't be successful in the pros is being discredited. Rookies Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Russell Wilson all led their respective teams to the playoffs and Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden both had fairly good years. In the NFC West, two former college coaches, Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll, both led their teams to the playoffs and the Bucs showed promise this season under former Rutgers coach Greg Schiano. The NFL is quickly molding into a new type of league and Oregon head coach Chip Kelly and his unique offense could definitely be very effective.

Although the college and pro games are obviously played at much different speeds, it would not be prudent to discredit the success that Chip Kelly has had at Oregon. Since Kelly was named the head coach in 2009, the Ducks have had an incredible record of 46-7 (33-3 in conference) including four straight appearances in BCS bowl games, which has only been matched by Miami, USC, and Ohio State since 1998. Kelly has run the most dynamic offensive system in the country with the Ducks, which makes his NFL coaching prospects so enticing. In each of the last three years, Oregon has finished the college football season in the top five of rushing yard per game, yards per game, as well as points per game, which displays just how proficient the Ducks have been on offense. Despite the undeniable talent gap between the pros and college, the collegiate game is swiftly becoming much more advanced and the difference between the NFL and college game has never been smaller. Although Kelly's success with the Ducks certainly doesn't mean that he will experience the same feats in the pro game, it is an indication that his offensive attack can work at the next level.

One of the main criticisms of Chip's spread offense is that it can only prosper with a quick and mobile quarterback under center and a speedy running back along side him in the backfield, which is what Kelly has had at Oregon. While Chip's high-powered offense would definitely flourish with a duel threat quarterback like Cam Newton, RGIII, or Russell Wilson, it can still be very effective with a pocket passer. Kelly's offensive system is predicated on its tempo more than anything else and therefore if Kelly had a quarterback that lacked mobility, he would just increase the pace of the team's offense. For example, Kelly has made numerous visits to the New England Patriots, upon Bill Belichick's request, to show the team his up-tempo offensive style. With their no-huddle and faster pace, the Patriots led the league with an average of 74.4 plays per game, which in comparison was almost 14 more plays per game than the defending Super Bowl Champion New York Giants ran during the season. Kelly's offense is all about tempo and speed, which is starting to become a popular trend in the NFL, and this exemplifies why so many league executives are attracted to him.

The Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, and Philadelphia Eagles have all set up meetings with the Oregon coach, and all three of the clubs seem to be very interested in his services. Each of the teams could use an offensive revamp, as they all finished outside of the top 20 in points per game this season. Aside from the promising improvements that Kelly could bring on the offensive side of the ball, his "win the day" mantra of playing hard every day, and the fact that all of his players seem to very much like him as a coach, could bring a much needed cohesion to an NFL team, especially one with the talent level of the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Bills Will Need To Stop The Broncos Running Attack

The Bills Ability To Stop The Broncos Running Attack: Tim Tebow is not exactly accustomed to the cold weather. He grew up in Jacksonville and then played college football at Florida. When Tebow travels to Buffalo to take on the Bills, the game time temperature is going to be in the low 30's and it will be Tebow's first cold weather start of his career from high school to college to the NFL. Tebow said, "I've never worn sleeves, but I've been wearing sleeves in practice this week to try to get used to that." Even when the weather is not bad, the Broncos opponents see a heavy dose of the run but especially with the cold weather in Bufflo, the Bills defense should be ready for a lot of Tebow and McGahee running from out of the backfield. The Broncos, which rank 1st in the NFL in rushing yard per game at 163.1, will likely try to run the ball around 50 times, which they also did against the Chiefs in week 10 and the Chargers in week 12. Luckily for Tebow and the Broncos, the Bills struggle to stop the run. They rank 28th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game at 139.5, 29th in rushing yards per attempt at 4.8, and 29th in rushing touchdowns allowed with 16. If the Bills struggle to stop the run once again on Saturday, it will be a long day in Buffalo for the Bills, who have lost 7 straight after starting 5-2.

NFL First Round Mock Draft

1. Carolina Panthers - Cam Newton, Quarterback, Auburn

2. Denver Broncos - Von Miller, Linebacker, Texas A and M

3. Buffalo Bills - Marcell Dareus, Defensive Tackle, Alabama

4. Cincinnati Bengals - A.J. Green, Wide Receiver, Georgia

5. Arizona Cardinals - Blaine Gabbert, Quaterback, Missouri

6. Cleveland Browns - Julio Jones, Wide Receiver, Alabama

7. San Francisco 49ers - Patrick Peterson, Cornerback, LSU

8. Tennessee Titans - Nick Fairley, Defensive Tackle, Auburn

9. Dallas Cowboys - Tyron Smith, Offensive Tackle, USC

10. Washington Redskins - Robert Quinn, Linebacker, North Carolina

11. Houston Texans - Aldon Smith, Defensive End, Missouri

12. Minnesota Vikings - Jake Locker, Quarterback, Washington

13. Detroit Lions - Prince Amukamara, Cornerback, Nebraska

14. St. Louis Rams - Corey Liuget, Defensive Tackle, Illinois

15. Miami Dolphins - Mike Pouncey, Center, Floirda

16. Jacksonville Jaguars - Ryan Kerrigan, Defensive End, Purdue

17. New England Patriots - Cameron Jordan, Defensive End, California 

18. San Diego Chargers - J.J. Watt, Defensive End, Wisconsin

19. New York Giants - Anthony Castonzo, Offesnive Tackle, Boston College

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Da'Quan Bowers, Defensive End, Clemson

21. Kansas City Chiefs - Nate Solder, Offensive Tackle, Colorado

22. Indianapolis Colts - Gabe Carimi, Offensive Tackle, Wisconsin

23. Philadelphia Eagles - Jimmy Smith, Cornerback, Colorado

24. New Orleans Saints - Muhammad Wilkerson, Defensive End, Temple

25. Seattle Seahawks - Andy Dalton, Quarterback, TCU

26. Baltimore Ravens - Adrian Clayborn, Defensive End, Iowa

27. Atlanta Falcons - Akeen Ayers, Linebacker, UCLA

28. New England Patriots - Mark Ingram, Running Back, Alabama

29. Chiacgo Bears - Derek Sherrod, Offensive Tackle, Mississippi State

30. New York Jets - Phil Taylor, Nose Tackle, Baylor

31. Pittsburgh Steelers - Aaron Williams, Cornerback, Texas

32. Green Bay Packers - Danny Watkins, Guard, Baylor