2014-2015 AFC East Predictions

AFC East:

The New England Patriots have dominated the AFC East unlike any other team in a single division in all of sports (basically, they have been the Microsoft of the AFC East). The Pats have won the division 11 of the past 13 years with the only exceptions being in 2002 when they went 9-7 with a second year Tom Brady - the last time they didn't have double-digit wins in a season - and in 2008 when they joined the 1985 Denver Broncos as the only teams to not make the playoffs despite winning at least 11 games in a season (the Seahawks won the NFC West with 7 wins in 2010 for perspective) after they went 11-5 with a Belichick is the true genius inspired Matt Cassel replacing an injured Tom Brady at quarterback for the entire season (ironically, the next year in 1986 the Broncos and John Elway had the same record in the AFC West and were actually the 2 seed in the conference, the same season they beat the Browns in "The Drive"). The Patriots have had an unprecedented run of success since Belichick ditched the Jets for New England in 2000 in a move somebody with true integrity like Jason Kidd would never do, as a 158-50 record over the past 11 years with 8 AFC Championship Game appearances, 5 Super Bowl appearances, and 3 Super Bowls is something that Browns and Lions fans wouldn't even be able to dream about because it seems so distant and fanciful to their doormat franchises. Tom Brady is one of the top 4 quarterbacks of all-time along with Johnny Unitas, Joe Montana, and Peyton Manning (apologizes to Otto Graham, John Elway, and Dan Marino) and Belichick is one of the top 8 greatest coaches ever along with legends Vince Lombardi, Paul Brown, George Halas, Tom Landry, Bill Walsh, Chuck Noll, and Don Shula (sorry Joe Gibbs, Curly Lambeau, and Bill Parcells).

However, it is a lot easier to be the class of your division when everybody around you is about as incompetent as Mark Wahlberg and Will Ferrell in The Other Guys. The Bills have not made the playoffs since they fatally lost the Music City Miracle to Frank Wycheck, Kevin Dyson, and Tennessee Titans all the way back in the 1999-2000 season. Over the past 14 years, the Bills have been 88-136 with 8 seasons of double-digit losses, have trotted out the likes of Alex Van Pely, Rob Johnson, J.P. Losman, Kelly Holcomb, Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Brohm, Jeff Tuel, Thad Lewis, and now EJ Manuel to play quarterback, seen a variety of their top picks excel on other teams whether it be Willis McGahee in Baltimore, Donte Whitner in San Francisco, Marshawn Lynch in Seattle, or Paul Posluszny in Jacksonville, and had Donald Trump and Bon Jovi make runs at buying the team (the only thing worse that could happen to the Bills is if they moved to Toronto and had Rob Ford replace Doug Marrone as head coach and Doug Whaley as general manager. On second thought, no longer having Doug Marrone patrolling the sidelines wouldn't be the worst of things for Buffalo). It has not been much better in Miami despite their owner Stephen Ross spending huge chucks of money on big name free agents to try and make the team relevant down in South Beach, as they have brought in guys like wide receiver Mike Wallace, left tackle Branden Albert, cornerbacks Brent Grimes and Cortland Finnegan, and defensive tackles Randy Starks and Earl Mitchell over the past two free agencies. The Fins have not won a playoff game since they beat the Colts in the 2000 Wild Card round with Jay Fiedler playing QB - their defense with Trace Armstrong, Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas, Larry Izzo, Sam Madison, and Brock Marion was ferocious - and unlike the Packers, who went from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers, the Colts who went from Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck, or the Oilers/Titans who went from Warren Moon to Steve McNair, they have still not found a reliable starter since Dan Marino retired in 1999, playing everybody from Sage Rosenfels to Tyler Thigpen over that time span. Finally, outside of the two seasons in which they somehow made back-to-back AFC Championship Game appearances in 2009 and 2010, the Jets have been full of drama and juicy story lines whether it be Tebow or Sanchez or Revis, but have not done all that much to challenge the Pats in the East. New York has not had a winning season in each of the past three years, the only other teams with that unfortunate mark are the Dolphins, Bills, Jaguars, Raiders, Bucs, and Rams, and Rex Ryan's time at MetLife Stadium may be running on thin ice.

New England Patriots:

Before any sentence can even be muttered about the Patriots offense in 2013-2014, it has come as a prerequisite to say, "Tom Brady had limited pass catching weapons," or "Tom Brady had a depleted receiving core," or "the Patriots lacked the options on the exterior to exploit a defense down the field," and that may be fair to say about the team (they did have the second most drops and second worst drops percentage in the NFL last season, only behind the Detroit Lions). Rob Gronkowski had two different surgeries on his forearm and then back surgery in the off-season, which caused him to miss the team's first 6 games, and then tore his ACL and MCL, which caused him to miss the club's last 3 games and the postseason. Aaron Hernandez went from 910 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2011 to being indicted for murder by 2013 and became the biggest criminal the country has seen since Phil Spector or Paul Kelly. Brady was left with a receiving core of rookies Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins, who both dropped so many passes that they made Stevie Johnson look like he has sure hands (they were two of three NFL players along with Browns running back Chris Ogbonnaya with at least 7 drops and less than 40 catches in 2013-2014), and Danny Amendola, who was a free agency disappointment in coming over from St. Louis in the off-season. However, outside of three years with Randy Moss from 2007 to 2009 when Moss caught 47 touchdowns in three seasons including a record 23 in 2007 and the 2011 year when Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez combined for 33 touchdowns and each eclipsed 900 yards, Brady has never really had top end receivers and he has been just fine in New England. Now, that is not to say that if Brady had a receiving core like the one in Chicago with Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, or Washington with DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, and Andre Roberts, or San Francisco with Boldin, Crabtree, Steve Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, and Vernon Davis that he wouldn't be a much more efficient quarterback. What I am saying, though, is that Brady's receiving core was better than many of the groups he has had in the past in New England and that Brady should be held accountable for some of the mistakes he made last year, particularly when he missed so many throws high against Denver in the first half of the Patriots 26-16 AFC Championship Game loss to the Broncos. Furthermore, Julian Edelman, was terrific last season and may have been just as lethal as Wes Welker in that slot receiver role for New England in helping the team constantly move the chains with short routes to the sidelines and slants over the middle, so exclusively blaming the receivers for some of the Pats offense struggles is just not warranted. Brady struggled against the blitz last season, especially on third down, and although that certainly had something to do with his receivers not getting off the line quick enough and making plays, Brady took too many sacks to cost him team opportunities to score in the opposing territory.

Despite all of that talk, the Patriots should still win the AFC East once again this season by several games (in the last four years, New England has won the division by 3 games, 5 games twice, and then 4 games last season), and despite some of his struggles last season, Tom Brady is not regressing to the mean and is still a top four NFL quarterback along with Manning, Rodgers, Brees. The Pats have completely moved on from the Aaron Hernandez fiasco, the most paranoid man since Joseph Stalin, and Brady should have more continuity and familiarity with his receiving core this year of Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman, Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins, newly acquired Brandon LaFell from Carolina (sorry Cam Newton but your receivers are all but gone), and for Pats fans sake, hopefully a healthy Rob Gronkowski. Gronk has been limited in practice and will likely take some time to come back and return to his normal self, but the Pats really need the big tight end for the stretch run and the postseason more than anything else. His addition to New England's offense is so important and cannot be understated because of his value to Brady in unlocking defenses over the middle and in the red zone especially. At 6-6, Gronk is such a big body that it is almost impossible to get in front of him when he runs those inside seam routes and crossing routes over the center of the field, and with the new NFL rules, you also can't hit him up high to jar the ball loose (if you can't hit high, you have to hit low and remember T.J. Ward, now of the Denver Broncos, cost Gronk the end of his season last year when he got him down in the knees, the only spot you can hit now without getting flagged for unnecessary contact; thanks Roger Goodell). New England had a 58.11 red zone touchdown percentage in 2013-2014, which was still good enough for 8th in the NFL, but with Tom Brady at QB, only in 2009 did they have a lower touchdown success rate between the 20 and the goal line in the last 10 years and that had a lot to do with Gronk's absence. Clearly, in the red zone everything is compressed, so it is harder for smaller guys like Edelman and Amendola to find space and open field because everything is so clustered, and the two combined for just 8 touchdowns last season. New England dearly missed having the big body of Gronk to throw to up high in the red zone when things got tight and there were not as many open windows to throw to underneath. With Gronk returning, it not only gives Brady a dynamic option in the red zone and when he is under pressure and needs to get rid of the ball because of Gronk's ability to out muscle any defender whether it be a bigger but slower linebacker or a quicker but smaller safety (unless it is Kam Chancellor because he is just huge), but it will also create more room for guys like Amendola, Dobson, and Thompkins to go down the field with all of the attention that Gronk's presence down the middle of the field deservedly creates (his presence off the field also seemingly creates a lot of notice amongst people, but that is for another time). Obviously, the more time that Brady's line of Nate Solder, Josh Kline (replacing Logan Mankins), Ryan Wendell, Dan Connolly, and Sebastian Vollmer gives him, the better he will be at spreading the ball around and getting the running game going with their assortment of backs including Stevan "Nobody Lost More Fumbles Than Me Last Season" Ridley, Shane "I Am Such A Good Pass Catching Tailback Just Call Me Kevin Faulk 2.0" Vereen, Brandon Bolden, and James "Watch Out For Me Because I'm Good Even Though I Played Behind Montee Ball In College" White.

People often tend to forget with Tom Brady and the Pats offense, just how concentrated the club has been with their running game since Bill Belichick took over as head coach at the turn on the century. Obviously, the emphasis on the running game has gone away a little bit over the years with Brady maturing as a quarterback and the league rules changing in such a way where any time a defensive back touches a receiver, it is a holding or pass interference penalty. Nonetheless, New England is one of the more balanced teams in the NFL (something the Lions and Cowboys could learn from), and are at their best when they are able to move the sticks with the run game and then set up the play action for Brady when he has more time to set his feet and really step into his throws without defenders in his face. Only the Bills, Jets, Chargers, and Bengals averaged more rushing attempts per game than the Patriots last season in the AFC and that was only the case for Buffalo and New York out of necessity because you really don't want to see EJ Manuel and you really, really don't want to see Geno Smith sit back and throw the ball 35-40 times a contest unless you are the opposing defense. In 2012, New England led the league in total yards (6,846) and points per game (34.8) largely because their 9.2 rushing first downs per game led the league (it has still not been bettered by any other franchise over the past 11 seasons), but last year they averaged just 7.1 rushing first downs per contest and were down to 7th in total yardage in the NFL. The Pats have always liked to wear teams down in the Brady-Belichick days with the running game and then set up the pass as the game goes along, but they do have some offensive line question marks. New England traded long-time left guard Logan Mankins to the Tampa Bay Bucs because of some issues with contract restructuring in very Patriots like fashion and their replacement, Josh Kline, only started one game in his rookie season last year. Furthermore, Sebastian Vollmer is coming off a broken leg and missed the second half of the year in 2013-2014 with the injury. Offensively, however, the Patriots have Tom Brady and the other teams in the AFC East do not possess the same advantage, so scoring a lot of points will not be too tough for this Patriots team in the regular season, but they will have to be hitting on all cylinders to win their first Super Bowl since back in 2004 (it has been longer than you think). Time is of the essence for an aging Tom Brady, who is already 37 years old, but they should have no problem rolling through the AFC East and finishing with a 11-5 or 12-4 record like they do almost every year. I also say that in large part when you consider the fact that they will have Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo, the lynch pins of their defense, both returning from injuries that cost them their season in 2013, Darrelle Revis shutting down one side of the field at cornerback and bringing back Revis Island, and the very athletic Chandler Jones rushing the passer from the right defensive end spot in the Pats much improved 4-3 defense.

Miami Dolphins:

There are certain quarterbacks coming into this season that are a very delicate point in their careers amongst fans of the league and NFL teams, and if they play well, they will have faith restored in their ability to lead a club to the promise land, but if they don't have a good season, serious doubts about their future as a starting quarterback and the amount of success that they can have if the NFL may come into thinking amongst everybody involved with a particular franchise. That is not to say that if certain quarterbacks don't have a good season this year that they will no longer have a job as a starter in this league, although it could in some instances, but it does means that serious doubt will be cast over their ability to take a team deep into the postseason and clubs may need to re-evaluate if this is their quarterback of the future (for example, the Vikings did not see enough out of Matt Cassel or Christian Ponder and the Raiders saw nothing positive out of Terrelle Pryor and Matt Flynn in 2013 to give either team the confidence that any one of their respective quarterbacks could be the long term solution for the club behind center, so Minnesota took Teddy Bridgewater out of Louisville with the last pick of the first round despite some of his arm concerns and Oakland took big throwing Derek Carr from Fresno St. in the second round of the 2014 NFL draft despite some of his brother concerns in hopes that they can be the guy for the next couple of years). Some of those signal callers that are at a very make-or-break point this season include Jake Locker, Carson Palmer, and Jay Cutler and possibly if you want to stretch this category out a little bit, Andy Dalton if he gets to the playoffs and fails to win a playoff game for the 4th straight season, Robert Griffin III (Kirk Cousins is right on his back in Washington), and even Eli Manning after his 27 interception laughing stock of a season last year although I think he needs maybe one or two more poor years to put him at a breaking point because of his two Super Bowl wins against Tom Brady and the Pats in 2007 and then again in 2011. However, the first name that comes to mind under this classification of quarterbacks is certainly Miami Dolphins third-year starter out of Texas A&M, the new factory for quarterbacks, Ryan Tannehill. After a 7-9 year as a rookie and a 8-8 season that came up just shy of the postseason in 2013-2014 because of some really bad losses at the end of the season including a 19-0 defeat to the Bills in week 16 and a 20-7 clunker against the Jets in the final week of the season at Sun Life Stadium, Tannehill needs to prove himself down in Miami this year for the Dolphins to put their complete trust in him going forward as their franchise QB. Tannehill throws a really nice ball, and he has a strong arm to get the pigskin down the field in a hurry, even when he is on the run and outside of the pocket, which is perfectly suited for a team that has the down the field receiving threat of Mike Wallace breaking the top off defensive coverages with his outstanding speed. Tannehill spreads the ball out nicely, despite too many of his passes getting tipped at the line of scrimmage (he had one game in a 2012 loss when two of his tipped passes against the Texans resulted in picks), and he isn't afraid to gun some throws into tight coverage, but like many young quarterbacks, his decision making needs to improve, and he needs to get rid of the ball quicker while not staring down receivers when doing so from the pocket. Tannehill is probably a 4th level QB and somewhere in the range of 20-25 amongst NFL single callers and he will have to make a little bit of a jump into the level of Nick Foles, Alex Smith, and Andy Dalton in order for the Fins to be all-in on him.

As much as this is a make-or-break year for Ryan Tannehill in year three, the Dolphins are almost at a franchise crossroads entering the 2014-2015 season because they either need to make some strides forward or change the way their roster is shaped under new general manager Dennis Hickey because the Bills, Browns, Lions, and possibly Texans and Redskins are the only teams that have been less successful than Miami since 2000. The Fins have been so mediocre since Marino's retirement 14 years ago with a record of 107-117 since the turn of the century, not good enough to challenge in the AFC with the likes of the Pats, Colts, Steelers, Ravens, and Broncos but also not bad enough to blow the whole thing up and start all over again (they have finished between 6 and 8 wins for 5 straight seasons since 2009 and have only had three top 7 draft picks since 1993). The Dolphins have tried for years to put some nice complimentary pieces around their quarterbacks on the offensive side of the ball, and despite past failures with guys like Jake Grove, Ernest Wilford, and to a certain extent Brandon Marshall, they have tried to make some strides in improving their offensive line, which was just terrible last season, and receiving group. Miami signed Branden Albert to a 5-year, 47 million dollar contract in the off-season to hold down their left tackle spot, which was a good move since Albert is coming off his best season with the Chiefs in 2013, and drafted Ja'Wuan James out of Tennessee in the first round, who is a much better pass protector than dominate force in the run game. The Dolphins desperately needed some new linemen to keep Ryan Tannehill on his feet and Albert and James should provide that in the passing game. Last season, Tannehill was hit more than almost any other quarterback in the NFL and had very little time in the pocket to go through his progressions because of constant pressure in his face. Miami was dead last in the NFL in QB sacks per game at 3.6, the most in a year since 2006, and in plays without the opposition sending extra men on a blitz, teams were still able to sack Tannehill 30 times, the most in the league by a good margin. Tannehill really struggled with his decision making when he faced pressure in 2013, which he did on nearly 23 percent of his passing attempts, so Miami was often put into long down-and-distances because of sacks and errant throws. With Mike Pouncey on the PUP list while still recovering from hip surgery, the Fins will be starting five entirely different offensive lineman from last season, which is a positive sign in the sense that they were proactive in the off-season and didn't just sit back after their QB was constantly knocked around last season like the Texans did with David Carr, but it is also a little bit worrying since they have barely worked together as an offensive unit. If the Dolphins are able to run the ball this season with new back from Denver Knowshon Moreno along with second-year tailback Lamar Miller, it will take a lot of pressure off the back of Tannehill. The Fins were only ahead of the Browns, Steelers, and Ravens in the AFC in rushing yards per game in 2013-2014 and were 27th in the NFL in rushing touchdowns last year, which put everything on the shoulders of Tannehill. They will need to be more balanced this year to help out Tannehill and get their offensive line pushing forward in the running game.

Much like how their offense has some really nice features (their receiving core with Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline, and Charles Clay) and also some real question marks (offensive line and running game) and would be categorized overall as fairly average to below average, the same can be said for their defense and their entire team in general (essentially, they are headed for another 7-9 or 8-8 season and a year of mediocrity). The Dolphins were 24th in rushing yards allowed per game last year at nearly 125 yards and as a Colts fans, I know what it is like to have opposing teams tail backs constantly running all over you on Sundays, so they need to improve on that front or feel the misery I have become so accustomed too over the years (as an optimistic Colts fan, however, with the newly acquired 30-million dollar Arthur Jones from Baltimore, Montori Hughes, and Cory Redding up front in the 3-4, Indy is going to have their best run defense since they ranked 15th in rushing yards per game in 2007 and went 13-3). Like many teams with below average rush defenses, Miami does have some dynamic pass rushers to get to the quarterback because their defensive ends just shoot down their lanes on the outside of offensive tackles and get to the QB on occasion, especially in obvious passing situations, but also leave openings in between the guard and the tackle in the running game. Aldon Smith, DeMarcus Ware, and Miami defensive end Cameron Wake are the only defenders to have two seasons of 14 or more sacks since 2010 and only Robert Mathis and Mario Williams had more sacks in the AFC than Miami's other defensive end, Olivier Vernon, last season, who came up with 11.5 including 7 in his last 7 games. In the secondary, any team that has to be heavily reliant on the very erratic and unpredictable Cortland Finnegan, like Miami is going to have to do this year with second-year players Will Davis and Jamar Taylor as their only other main cornerbacks, is a little nerve wrecking. Miami probably did make an upgrade in bringing in safety Louis Delmas from the Lions and letting the worse Chris Clemons, not the former Seattle and now Jacksonville one, go to Houston, but it may not make up enough for some of the defensive woes that the team has in the run game and with the unreliable Finnegan at the other starting corner spot across from Brent Grimes. Expect another year of .500 football from a very mediocre Miami Dolphins team and more head scratching and pondering of what to do moving froward with the club.

New York Jets/Buffalo Bills:

It is the Jets and the Bills. They are starting Geno Smith and EJ Manuel at quarterback respectively, two guys who make me confident in the abilities of Shaun Hill and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Do I need to say anything more? They are actually two teams that have a lot of similarities when you really come to think about it. New York and Buffalo both have second year quarterbacks that did not show nearly enough in their rookie seasons to give their fan bases any confidence in them going forward. When Manuel was on the field last year and not dealing with his knee injury, he showed his athleticism and ability to throw the ball on the run, but he still needs to improve on his pocket awareness this upcoming season. Geno Smith looked out of his comfort zone at times last season, like the game was just moving too fast for him, and he will have to be, at the bare minimum, a servicable quarterback for the Jets to do anything in 2014-2015. The Jets and Bills were also two teams that ranked at the top of the AFC in rushing play percentage in 2013 despite the fact that Chris Ivory's only good game came against the Saints, his former team, and C.J. Spiller single-handled ruined 30 percent of all fantasy football leagues last season when he went late in the first round and had 2 touchdowns all year long and had 23 rushing yards or less in 5 out of the 15 games he played in for Buffalo. The clubs have some serious defensive problems heading into this season despite the Jets very solid interior and Bills above average secondary, as New York's cornerback situation is in such disarray that Dimitri Patterson ran away from the team in fear of what was going to come in the future and the Bills lack the quality linebackers that you need in a 4-3 defense to stop the run (they ranked 28th in rushing yards allowed per game in 2013 and that was with a Marcell Dareus that didn't come to camp way overweight and a healthy Kiko Alonso, who will be out for the entirety of the season with a torn ACL). New York and Buffalo also have new wide receivers to help their young quarterbacks, as the Jets spent the big bucks for Eric Decker and the Bills traded up with the Browns to acquire Sammy Watkins. Nonetheless, expect 5-11 or 6-10 seasons for New York and Buffalo and top 10 picks in the 2015 Draft with questions circling around the teams all season long about future quarterback prospects such as Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Brett Hundley, Connor Cook, and Kevin Hogan. Also expect Rex Ryan and Doug Marrone to be looking for jobs this off-season and Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson of the Jets defensive line and Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, and Leodis McKelvin of the Bills defense wishing they had more capable offenses to help them win some more football games. New York football teams are in for another tough season, especially if the new look Giants offense mirrors their miserable performance in the pre-season and the Jets and Bills play the sub-par football must people expect from them in 2014-2015.