Chelsea vs Stoke City In-Game Analysis

1st Place Chelsea (12-1-3, 39 points) at 13th Place Stoke City (5-7-4, 19 points) at 3:00 on the NBC Sports Network

Pre-Match Background:

Last year, Stoke pulled off one of the most memorable upsets of the past several Premier League seasons when they beat Chelsea 3-2 in a wild match at the Britannia Stadium. After suffering their worst ever league defeat to the Blues in a 7-0 smashing just three years before in 2010, Stoke got their first win against Chelsea since the 1996 League Cup second round and their first victory against the London club in a league match since April of 1975. The stunning win had everything you could dream of in an unforgettable upset: the fans in Stoke-on-Trent were going wild, the team had a 2-1 lead and lost it to Andre Schurrle's second left footed goal of the match, and then just as it seemed all hope was lost, Liverpool loanee Oussama Assaidi had an absolute crack of a goal for the Potters in the 89th minute for the shocking victory. Assaidi cut into his favorite right foot from the left and hit a rocket of a shot into the top right hand corner that would have been the Premier League goal of the season if not for Rooney's goal versus West Ham, Arsenal's incredible team goal against Norwich, Alexander Tetty's wonder strike versus Sunderland, and Kasami's volley against Palace (ok, so it was not a top goal of the season candidate, but it was the most climatic goal of the year).

Stoke has always given clubs in the top half of the table trouble with their physical style of play, and Chelsea are at the top of the EPL right now. The Potters were victorious against Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal, and Newcastle last year, and their five wins this season are all against teams in the top half of the Premier League (their wins are over Man City 1-0, Newcastle 1-0, Swansea 2-1, Tottenham 2-1, and Arsenal 3-2).

Chelsea has struggled under Mourinho against teams in the bottom half of the table that play without the ball and try to prevent the Blues from breaking them down by staying organized in the back. The Blues lost to 9th place Stoke, 15th place Aston Villa, 11th place Crystal Palace, and 14th place Sunderland last season, as well as tied 17 place West Brom in both their meetings, because they did not have the creativity to break down compact defenses.

Line-Up Analysis:

Chelsea Starting XI (4-2-3-1): Thibaut Courtois, Cesar Azpilicueta, John Terry, Gary Cahill, Branislav Ivanovic, Nemanja Matic, John Obi Mikel, Eden Hazard, Cesc Fabregas, Willian, Diego Costa

For the fourth straight game, Jose Mourinho is starting John Obi Mikel alongside of Nemanja Matic in the Chelsea midfield to allow Cesc Fabregas the ability to play higher up the field and be more of a creator for Diego Costa. Fabregas has only 2 assists in his last 5 league games after starting the season on a torrid pace with 9 assists in his first 10 matches. After the Blues suffered their first defeat of the season against Newcastle 2-1 at St. James' Park (their 3rd loss to the Magpies in their last 4 games against them), Mikel featured in the side's 3-1 win against Sporting Lisbon in the Champions League, their 2-0 victory over Hull City in the Premier League, and their 3-1 win against Derby County in the quarterfinals of the League Cup. His role, as it almost always is in the Chelsea side, will be to clean up anything that makes it way into the center of the field and to watch Stoke's danger man going forward, Bojan Krkic.

Diego Costa is also back in the lineup after resting against Derby over a week ago and the team's usual back four of Azpilicueta, Terry, Cahill, and Ivanovic will be ready to go.

Aside from Fabregas sitting behind the striker in the role Oscar has typically played in, the side for Chelsea is their normal starting XI. Mourinho has put out almost the exact same line-up the entire season. It remains to be seen if Mou will need to use more of his squad as the year goes on and the team continues to wear down playing in four separate competitions. However, the consistent lineup selections have allowed Chelsea to get in a great flow early in the season.

Stoke City XI (4-2-3-1): Asmir Begovic, Erik Pieters, Marc Muniesa, Ryan Shawcross, Phillip Bardsley, Steven N'Zonzi, Geoff Cameron, Marko Arnautovic, Bojan Krkic, Jonathan Walters, Peter Crouch

With Marc Wilson still suffering from a hamstring injury that he picked up against Tottenham and then re-aggravated in Stoke's 2-1 loss to Manchester United, Mark Hughes is forced into the center back partnership of Ryan Shawcross and Marc Muniesa against the Blues (Wilson is on the bench, but not fully fit to play 90 minutes). Although Hughes experimented with the versatile Geoff Cameron in the center of defense against Burnley, Cameron will be in a defensive midfield role alongside Steven N'Zonzi. Marc Muniesa, a natural full back, will shift into the halfback position to try and contain Diego Costa. Wilson's absence was felt in the two games he missed this season in the Premier League, as the Potters conceded 2 goals to both Burnley and Arsenal in those fixtures (one of only two league games where Burnley has scored multiple goals along with their 2-2 draw versus bottom dwellers Leicester City).

Although Peter Crouch has struggled to find his best form this season for Stoke, his recent goals against Arsenal and Crystal Palace have ensured him a place in the starting XI ahead of the speedy Mame Diouf. While the Senegalese Diouf, who came over this summer from Hannover 96 in the Bundesliga, gives Stoke the ability to play in behind the defense with his pace, Mark Hughes is going for a more direct style against a Chelsea team that figures to have a lot of the ball. Crouch's ability to contest for headers and flick on aerial balls should put an emphasis on Arnautovic and Walters putting crosses into the box to test the Chelsea defense.

First Half Analysis:

• In the worst imaginable start for Stoke, Cesc Fabregas's corner connected with John Terry and the Chelsea skipper headed the ball into the back of the net past a helpless Asmir Begovic. Fabregas's out-swinging corner went towards the front post at the corner of the six yard box and Terry was able to win the aerial ball over Geoff Cameron for the early goal. The Chelsea captain was able to free himself by moving from the far side of the 6 yard box to the near post and Cameron, who was holding onto Terry's shirt in the usual pulling and shoving that goes on in the box, never even went up for the corner because he was trying to hold Terry down. Chelsea 1 - Stoke City 0.
• It is Chelsea's earliest league goal since Costa struck in the first minute of their wild 6-3 win against Everton at Goodison Park on August 30th. It marks Terry's 15 consecutive season with at least one Premier League goal, and was a classic headed goal for the skipper in moving a defender away from the ball and then getting past him off pure will and positioning. The goal also gave Fabregas his 12th assist of the season, and keeps him on pace to blow past Thierry Henry's record for assists in a single BPL season, which the Frenchman set in 2002-2003 with 20 helpers for the Gunners.
• While Stoke were a team under Tony Pulis that thrived off set pieces, they have been very poor in dead ball situations in the early season. Despite the size that the Potters have throughout their squad with Erik Pieters, Robert Huth, Marc Wilson, Ryan Shawcross Peter Crouch, and Steven N'Zonzi all being over 6-1, they now have conceded 8 headed goals through 17 games (they allowed just 11 in 38 games last year). They have also scored just 3 set piece goals, and have allowed 10 goals in dead ball situations.
• Meanwhile, Chelsea, who used their early corner to put the Potters in an early hole, now have 10 goals off set pieces and have only conceded three times on dead ball situations. Despite being one of the oldest players in the Premier League at 34, Terry is showing no sings of slowing down with his vintage finish to put Chelsea ahead.
• In very Stoke-like fashion, challenges are flying around everywhere in a fiery and physical game. Players are committing themselves all over the field to hard tackles on attackers.
• In the 18th minute, Phil Bardsley put in a very late sliding challenge on Eden Hazard down the side of the field and was quite fortunate to escape with a yellow card. The tackle was a careless and dangerous one from Bardsley that likely should have seen him off the pitch with a straight red card. The fullback recklessly came in on the challenge down the left flank and completely crushed Hazard on the play by taking out his front leg. A tackle like that, where a defender heedlessly kicks out a player's legs from under him with no intention of going for the ball, is more than often a sending off, and is a decision a stricter ref than Neil Swarbrick would have made under the circumstances.
• The tackle was a real late one, and the game has only increased in feistiness and aggressiveness after the challenge with Nemanja Matic and Steven N'Zonzi fighting in the box and tackles rolling in all over the pitch. A rugged game is the type of football that Stoke has embraced ever since they re-joined the Premier League in 2008, but while Chelsea do enjoy a smooth, technical style of play, they are always inclined to use their physicality to impose themselves on a match.
• Stoke have had some glimmers of goal scoring opportunities in the first half.
• In the 21st minute, Steven N'Zonzi, who can hit a shot as he showed with his 25 yard goal against Southampton in the League Cup, had an effort on goal that deflected off the right foot of Terry and made Courtois change directions to make the save.
• In the next minute, Jonathan Walters had an opportunity to level the game off a Bojan feed, but his shot was blocked on the left side of the box by a stretching Gary Cahill. Terry and Cahill in particular have become so good at blocking shots and passes in order to prevent the opposing team from having clear finishing chances in and around the 18 yard box.
• The Potters look most dangerous when they are able to get the ball to Bojan in dangerous areas of the field because he is so crafty in the attacking third. However, he has had few chances in the first half to get past Matic and Mikel and put himself in situations where he is going unimpeded at the slower moving Terry and Cahill.
• Chelsea has been content to keep the ball and patiently move it from side to side in order to wait for an opening in a Stoke defense that is allowing well more than a goal per game with their ever changing back four. While Chelsea have been maneuvering with slow buildup play in the first half, its best chances have come on the quick counterattack after Stoke have lost the ball and sent one of their defensive midfielders and fullbacks forward in attack (usually N'Zonzi and Pieters when they are attacking down the left with Arnautovic). The Blues have looked lethal when Fabregas picks up the ball in transition and attempts to put Diego Costa through on a long ball from midfield.
• In the 31st minute, Matic made a superb sliding challenge on Geoff Cameron and Fabregas played Diego Costa in on a through ball that the Spanish forward really should have slotted home for a goal. The striker, who has 12 league goals but just one in his last 6 starts in all competitions, was one-on-one with Begovic, but uncharacteristically pulled his shot from a little inside the 18 yard box wide of the net. While Muniesa had Costa offside, Ryan Shawcross did not move up the pitch quick enough to force Costa off. The defender should have stayed with Costa as he was step-for-step with the striker, and he should have followed his run since Costa does not have the blistering pace to leave him behind on a through ball. Instead, Shawcross took an untimely and foolish risk in trying to play a late offside trap after he had already started to follow Costa's run and was not in position to change his defensive angles. Shawcross was bailed out by a chance that Diego Costa should finish when he is in behind the defense and only has the keeper to beat. The striker just tried to slid the ball past Begovic, but he did not put enough pace on the shot to slot it into the bottom left-hand corner, keeping Stoke in the game at a one goal deficit.
• Overall, a first half that both sides would have expected coming into the match with Chelsea looking the more threatening going forward, but Stoke still having some opportunities in front of their inspiring home crowd to poke in a goal. Diego Costa may rue the clear cut chance he missed going in on Begovic, but his hustle throughout the field and darting runs across the defense has caused the Stoke back four some significant trouble. Peter Crouch has not really gotten involved in the game, especially since he has no help up front to latch onto his flicked headers, so Stoke may want to think about changing their attacking options if they can hold Chelsea without a goal until the 60 or 70 minute mark. Stoke look as if their goal scoring chances are more likely to come from take-ons by Arnautovic or Jonathan Walters rather than a direct style to Crouch, who is too isolated up front.

Second Half Analysis:

• The second half has begun as expected with Chelsea having a majority of the chances in trying to finish off the match and not let Stoke hang around.
• Just after the second half whistle in the 51st minute, Marc Muniesa and Erik Pieters committed themselves to a bruising tackle on Diego Costa, but the ball squirted to Willian, who drove down the entire free right side of the field and drilled a low shot that Begovic had to stretch to save.
• Just three minutes later in the 54th minute, Hazard overlapped Costa in the box, twirled around on his right foot, and then fed Fabregas in front of the net for a flick that surprised Begovic, but that did not have enough pace to get past the skilled Bosnian goalkeeper.
• Chelsea was the team with the better of play in the beginning of the second half, but they lacked the final pass through to Costa or the right finish to put them two goals ahead. The connection between Fabregas and Costa has been very strong all season long, and Hazard has been giving Phillip Bardsley a torrid time when he is on the ball, as he does with almost all opposing full backs in the Premier League. However, the Blues have been rather wasteful in and around Stoke's 18 yard-box to kill off the game. Costa seems to be slightly off the finishing touch he had at the beginning of the season, and he is often a little bit too separated from the midfield and on his own up front against Muniesa and Shawcross to really hurt the Potters.
• As in most matches where a team hangs around down despite not having a lot of possession in advanced areas of the field, Stoke still had an absolutely great chance in the 71st minute to level the game against the run of play.
• Their opportunity fell right to the left foot of Charlie Adam, a midfielder that can really hit a ball with his favorite side, as he has shown with some real cracking efforts over the years in English football (his free kick against Cardiff in the 2010 Championship Playoff Final for Blackpool, his strike against West Brom for Stoke, both of his wonder goals against Man United, and his rip against Liverpool last season just to name a few of his better finishes). On the play, John Terry came out of his position alongside Gary Cahill to try and win the ball off Steven N'Zonzi, which meant that John Obi Mikel had to cover him and move into the center back role in the box. Charlie Adam, who was standing right outside of the box in the center of the field, was free for an open shot and he was able to get it off on his first touch since Mikel could not close him down quick enough. However, for as well as Adam hit the ball, it cut off his left foot just a little bit too much and sailed past the post for a wasted opportunity for the Potters.
• Like all great teams, the Blues made Stoke pay for their missed goal scoring chance just a few minutes later to cement their victory and take another three points in their Premier League campaign.
• In the 77th minute, Diego Costa made a run across the face of the 18, which pulled Marc Muniesa away from the center of the box. That run from the striker was pivotal because it left open space for Cesc Fabregas to run into from his midfield position, a run that is very difficult to track. After Fabregas made a pass to Hazard, he darted into the space once occupied by Costa, and took his first touch with the outside of his right foot away from Ryan Shawcross to create the room to shoot on goal. Although Fabregas really missed his shot and barely even got a hold of it, the ball slowly rolled into the back of the net for his 4th goal in all competitions for the Blues. Shawcross saw Farbegas's run later then he would have liked, so he was trying to catch up to the midfielder, and his over pursuit allowed Cesc to take his touch back behind him to set up his shot. Begovic could do nothing with the slow, rolling shot because the buildup was so perfect that Fabregas only needed the slightest of touches to finish off the goal and another Chelsea victory. Chelsea 2 - Stoke City 0.

What Lies Ahead:

Chelsea may not be "The Invincibles" like the original 1888-1889 Preston North End squad or the more recent 2003-2004 Arsenal team that went undefeated, but they seem to be as invulnerable as any team in modern football.

The Blues, who are currently 13-1-3 as we approach the midway point of the Premier League season, have taken an impressive 42 points from a possible 51. When the Blues established the mark for the most points in a single English football season with 95 in 2004-2005, they had just 40 points through their first 17 games (12-1-4), and Chelsea's pace of 93 points is championship caliber (no team in Premier League history has ever reached at least 90 points and not won the title).

For all of Chelsea's early season success, they still have some significant question marks. Can Jose Mourinho go through an entire season playing the same relative squad and not see a dip in quality? Can a center back partnership of John Terry and Gary Cahill, both of whom lack any serious pace, keep up with better sides? Will Chelsea be able to find scoring outside of Eden Hazard and Diego Costa?

Coming up, the Blues will play Championship side Watford in the 3rd round of the FA Cup, PSG in the round of 16 of the Champions League for the second straight year, and Liverpool over two legs in the League Cup semifinals (Sheffield United, who play Tottenham in the other semifinal, are looking to become the first team from the third-tier of English football to reach the final since Aston Villa did so from Division Three in 1970-1971). Chelsea seem to be one of the four Champions League favorites along with Bayern (vs Shakhtar Donetsk), Barca (vs Manchester City), and Real Madrid (vs Schalke 04). Chelsea would love to cause Brendan Rodgers even more trouble in denying Liverpool a League Cup finals appearance.

In the league, Chelsea have their toughest stretch of the season with games home against West Ham, Newcastle, Manchester City, and Everton and away fixtures versus Southampton, Tottenham, Swansea, and Aston Villa in their next 8 matches. After their first trophy-less year since 2010-2011 in the first year of Mourinho's second stint with the club, Roman Abramovich will be expecting a Premier League title at the very least from his club.

Meanwhile, Stoke have somewhat transitioned from the direct style of play that they employed under Tony Pulis to a more possession based strategy under Mark Hughes. The results have largely been the same for the Potters, who need to get more points against teams from the bottom of the table. Although they have brought in same players over the last two years that can pick teams apart through their skill rather than merely through their physicality like Bojan, Diouf, Odemwingie, and Arnautovic, they are still on pace to finish somewhere between 9th and 14th, which they have done for 6 straight years since they returned to the Premier League in 2008-2009.

The Potters, who lost to Southampton 3-2 in the League Cup round of 16 because of a Graziano Pelle goal in the 88th minute, play fifth-tier Welsh side Wrexham in the FA Cup third round. In the league, Stoke have Everton at Goodison Park, West Brom and Mancheter United at home, Arsenal and Leiciester away from the Britannia, before playing at Loftus Road against QPR to finish up January. Stoke could use a spark up front and a player with a little quickness to get behind defenses, especially with Diouf going off to the African Cup of Nations in January for Senegal. I would not be surprised if they go after Joel Campell from Arsenal on a loan move in the January transfer window. They might also shop for a center back to form a more consistent pairing in the back with Ryan Shawcross whether it be Matija Nastasic from Man City or Philipp Wollscheid from Bayer Leverkusen.