It’s A Numbers Game!

There is something about baseball and numbers that fans love to talk about and debate. If you say the number “56” one immediately thinks of DiMaggio. If you say “406” everyone knows that was Ted Williams batting average in 1941. There is something about our national pastime that makes these numbers so sacred, and why the steroid era infuriates the baseball purist who can’t stand that their sport has been tainted. As Derek Jeter approaches his 3000^th hit, the argument heard around office water coolers is what stat is more significant, 500 homers, 3000 hits, or 300 wins.

Years ago, 500 homers was a plateau few guys reached. For a long time the big three were Aaron with 755, Ruth with 714, and Mays with 660. You also had guys like Frank Robinson, Mickey Mantle, and Ernie Banks as members of the club. Now you have Bonds, A-Rod, Sosa, McGwire, Palmeiro, and Ramirez in the top 14, and all have been implicated in steroid usage. Their inflated home run totals have tarnished this previous gold standard of success. Also, parks are smaller now and the pitching is watered down from yesteryears. There are currently 25 men in the 500-homer club, but many are in hot pursuit.

Two hundred hits in a season has always been the benchmark of a very good offensive year, so if one can do that for 15 years, they would have 3000 hits. Jeter is set to become only the 28^th player to join that club, which shows that it’s a terrific accomplishment. There is also a great amount of consistency, and good health, needed to accumulate that many hits. There are also 3 active players with more than 2700 hits – Ivan Rodriguez, Omar Vizquel, and A-Rod.

However, getting 300 wins is the most difficult! One must average 20 wins a year for 15 years. From 2006-2010 the number of 20 game winners in the majors was 0, 1, 4, 0, 2. Not an easy task in any one year, let alone doing it 15 straight years! Remember also that pitchers now have 5-7 fewer starts with a 5-man rotation than years ago. When talking about records that will never be broken, one has to mention the 1971 season when the four Oriole starting pitchers each had at least 20 wins – Palmer, Cuellar, McNally, and Dobson. To reach 300 wins, the pitcher has to play on a very good team and have a solid bullpen so as not to increase the likelihood of leads being lost. The stats also bear out the fact that there are far more non-decisions for pitchers now than at any other time in baseball history. We may not see another 300 game winner for many, many years. Jamie Moyer leads all active players with 267 wins and he is followed by Tim Wakefield’s 198! Roy Halladay is third amongst active players with 180 wins to date. If the season ended today, Halladay would have to pitch 6 more seasons and win 20 games each one. To gain a perspective on how hard it is to win 20 games, as great a pitcher as Halladay is, he has won at least 20 games only 3 times in his 13 year career. It is a pretty safe bet than to say that Halladay will not win 300 games either. Any by the way, I think it is a pretty safe bet to say that no one will ever top Cy Young’s record of 511 wins!