NFL Quick Thoughts Through Week 12

AFC Teams Squarely In The Playoff Picture (11 teams): New England Patriots (9-3), Miami Dolphins (6-5), Buffalo Bills (6-5), Cincinnati Bengals (7-3-1), Pittsburgh Steelers, (7-4), Cleveland Browns (7-4), Baltimore Ravens (7-4), Indianapolis Colts (7-4), Denver Broncos (8-3), Kansas City Chiefs (7-4), San Diego Chargers (7-4)

AFC Teams Out Of The Playoff Picture (5 teams): New York Jets (2-9), Houston Texans (5-6), Tennessee Titans (2-9), Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10), Oakland Raiders (1-10)

NFC Teams Still In The Playoff Picture (10 teams): Philadelphia Eagles (8-3), Dallas Cowboys (8-3), Green Bay Packers (8-3), Detroit Lions (7-4), New Orleans Saints (4-7), Atlanta Falcons (4-7), Carolina Panthers (3-7-1), Arizona Cardinals (9-2), Seattle Seahawks (7-4), San Francisco 49ers (7-4)

NFC Teams Out Of The Playoff Picture (6 teams): New York Giants (3-8), Washington Redskins (3-8), Chicago Bears (5-6), Minnesota Vikings (4-7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-9), St. Louis Rams (4-7)

Clearly, there is still a whole lot to be determined in the NFL despite nearly three quarters of the season having already been played. Here are some quick thoughts through week 12 of the NFL year:

The New England Patriots Are Really Hot:

In the Patriots 42-20 victory over the Indianapolis Colts in week 11, undrafted third year running back Jonas Gray, who never even started at Notre Dame in four years and did not have a single rushing touchdown in his career, rushed for 201 yards and 4 touchdowns. Granted, Gray ran against a Colts defense that has been susceptible to the running game for seemingly 15 years since the days of Peyton Manning (remember that in the playoff game between these two teams last year, the Pats rattled off 234 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground to advance to the AFC Championship Game). Nonetheless, out of seemingly nowhere, Gray became the third Patriot to run for 200 yards in a game, joining only Jim Nance and Tony Collins, who did so in 1966 against the Raiders and 1983 versus the Jets respectively, became the 5th running back in the last 45 years to have 200 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns in a game along with Barry Sanders in 1991, Corey Dillion in 1997, Mike Anderson in 2000, Doug Martin in 2008, and the first player to score his first four touchdowns all in one game since Herb Henderson in 1921. So what did Belichick and the Patriots do in week 12, they benched Gray after he was late to practice and then proceeded to pound on the once NFC North leading Detroit Lions, who have one of the best defenses in all of football, 34-9 in Foxborough. The Patriots, who are riding a 7-game winning streak since they were plumbed by the Chiefs on Monday Night Football on September 29th, could do anything right now and it would work out perfectly because that is how things are going in New England. Now, let's get one thing straight. I'm sure Belichick loved to show the world that he can do anything he wants and still get a victory, and simultaneously making thousands of fantasy owners thoroughly upset while he was at it must have been a nice added bonus for the smug coach. However, if the Pats thought that they absolutely needed Gray to win the game, he would have been on the field regardless of any internal disciplinary protocol. For example, Darrelle Revis was late to practice on October 21st, but Revis was out there on the following Sunday because they needed him to match up against Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall. The Pats were fine without Gray playing after their acquisition of power back LeGarrette Blount, who ran for 78 yards and 2 touchdowns against Detroit, and Shane Vereen catching the ball out of the backfield. The Patriots are one of those teams where the system is bigger than a majority of its parts. With Gray coming back into the fold next week against the Packers, the Patriots should continue their dominance running the football.

The change in the play of the Patriots has been striking. At one time, New England was a very unconvincing 5-2 heading into a stretch at home against Chicago and Denver, at Indy, home against Detroit, on the road at Green Bay and San Diego, and then home against Miami (teams at this point that have a combined record of 48-29 and five of which are in position to be in the playoffs). Many Pats fans would have taken a record of 9-5 after that brutal stretch, one of the toughest in the NFL this year, and yet New England has played its best football since its Super Bowl run in 2011 with four straight 21 point victories against the Bears, Broncos, Colts, and Lions, matching a record they set back in 2007. The Patriots are now sitting at 9-2 as they head into the tail end of their difficult schedule, and laughable articles about Jimmy Garappolo replacing Brady and there being friction in the Pats front office about Garappolo taking over the starting job can be put to bed forever. Rob Gronkowski returning to full health and looking like the Gronk from 2011 has been a major factor, if not the main reason, behind the Pats return to dominance on the offensive side of the football. The Gronk that is just punishing teams over the middle of the field with seam routes and blocking guys out of bounds with no regard for humanity and not looking limited coming off his ACL/MCL right knee injury has finally returned to New England over the past couple of weeks. After understandably not getting too many reps in the early part of the season and not having a game with at least 45 yards in the Pats 3-2 start, Gronk had 100 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals, 149 and 3 touchdowns versus the Bears (the first tight end with those numbers since Shannon Sharpe in 1996), 105 and a touchdown against the Broncos, and 71 and a touchdown against the Colts.

This is what I wrote about Gronk before the season. "Gronk has been limited in practice and will likely take some time to come back and return to his normal self, but the Pats really need the big tight end for the stretch run and the postseason more than anything else. His addition to New England's offense is so important and cannot be understated because of his value to Brady in unlocking defenses over the middle and in the red zone especially. At 6-6, Gronk is such a big body that it is almost impossible to get in front of him when he runs those inside seam routes and crossing routes over the center of the field, and with the new NFL rules, you also can't hit him up high to jar the ball loose (if you can't hit high, you have to hit low and remember T.J. Ward, now of the Denver Broncos, cost Gronk the end of his season last year when he got him down in the knees, the only spot you can hit now without getting flagged for unnecessary contact; thanks Roger Goodell). New England had a 58.11 red zone touchdown percentage in 2013-2014, which was still good enough for 8th in the NFL, but with Tom Brady at QB, only in 2009 did they have a lower touchdown success rate between the 20 and the goal line in the last 10 years and that had a lot to do with Gronk's absence. Clearly, in the red zone everything is compressed, so it is harder for smaller guys like Edelman and Amendola to find space and open field because everything is so clustered, and the two combined for just 8 touchdowns last season. New England dearly missed having the big body of Gronk to throw to up high in the red zone when things got tight and there were not as many open windows to throw to underneath. With Gronk returning, it gives Brady a dynamic option in the red zone and when he is under pressure and needs to get rid of the ball because of Gronk's ability to out muscle any defender whether it be a bigger but slower linebacker or a quicker but smaller safety (unless it is Kam Chancellor because he is just huge). It will also create more room for guys like Amendola, Dobson, and Thompkins to go down the field with all of the attention that Gronk's presence down the middle of the field deservedly creates (his presence off the field also seemingly creates a lot of notice amongst people, but that is for another time)."

If you look at the presence that Gronk has had for New England over their winning streak, he is as big a reason as any for why Tom Brady has suddenly played so much better since some of his struggles in the beginning of the year. The Patriots lead the NFL in red zone touchdown scores per game because of just how good Gronk and his big body is between the 20 and the goal line. Not only can Gronk box guys out because of his superior size and make plays in the red zone, but he commands so much attention and double teams from opposing defenses that it allows other guys to get free for Brady. For example, in the game against the Lions this past weekend, Tim Wright was able to catch two wide open touchdowns because Detroit put so many bodies on Gronk and the Pats used him as a decoy for Brady. The Pats have also begun to welcome opposing wide receivers to Revis island, which is now looking like one of the best signings of the off-season because he looks like the shutdown Revis from back in 2010 and 2011 (other great NFL off-season signings have been Golden Tate for Detroit, Emmanuel Sanders for the Broncos, Henry Melton for Dallas, Brandon Flowers for San Diego, and Branden Albert to sure up the offensive line in Miami). New England has shown that they can run the football (week two against the Vikings, week 5 against the Benglas, week 11 versus the Colts), throw the football (week 6 versus the Bills, week 8 against the Bears, week 12 versus the Lions), and shut teams down when their offense isn't clicking (week 3 against the Raiders), but like all Patriots teams since their dynasty began in 2001, it is all about the postseason. As long as Gronk stays healthy, this is as dangerous as we have seen the Pats in a couple of years.

The NFC South Is Really Bad and the AFC North Is Really Good:

Remember when we thought the 2010 NFC West was bad? The NFC South makes that division look like the 2000-2001 NBA Western Conference because the Saints, Falcons, Panthers, and Buccaneers are all really bad teams. The NFC South is so bad that the Bucs, who are 2-9, second to last in the NFC in points scored, tied for second to last in the conference in points against, and lost 56-14 to the Atlanta Falcons in week 3, are just two games behind the 4-7 Saints and Falcons in the division (the Jets are 2-9 and mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and the Bucs are actually right there in the playoff hunt somehow). The NFC South is so bad that the the Saints are tied for the division lead and have only had a worse 11 game start to a season when they were 3-8 back in 2005 in the Katrina year on their way to a 3-13 season. The NFC South is so bad that the Atlanta Falcons are 4-0 in divisional games (beat the Saints, Bucs twice, and Panthers) and 0-7 against all other teams in the NFL (loss to the Bengals, Vikings, Giants, Bears, Ravens, Lions, and Browns). The NFC south is so bad that the Panthers have not had a victory in their last 6 games (tie against the Bengals and losses to the Packers, Seahawks, Saints, Eagles, and Falcons), their longest such streak since they lost 7 in a row in their 2-14 year in 2010, and are just a game and a half out of the division lead. The NFC South is 1-10-1 against the AFC North, the AFC division that each of their teams are playing, and 4-7 against the NFC North, the NFC division that each of their teams are playing. Overall, the putrid division is 6-23-1 in out of divisional games, which is on pace to set the mark for the second worst out of division record behind the 2008 NFC West. Hopefully, the horrible NFC South winner will show the NFL that each of the divisional winners should not be guaranteed to host a playoff game, especially when a possible 6-10 Saints or Falcons is hosting a 11-5 Cowboys or Seahawks.

As their records would indicate, the Saints, Falcons, Panthers, and Buccaneers have each run into some very significant problems this season. New Orleans, which cut defensive end Will Smith and cornerback Jabari Greer, let linebacker Jonathan Vilma go, and lost safeties Malcom Jenkins and Roman Harper to the Eagles and Panthers respectively in the-offseason, is 27th in the league in opponents passing yards per game. In a Rob Ryan defense that loves to blitz five or six guys and keep their corners and safeties in single coverage, the Saints have not gotten the secondary play from Keenan Lewis, Corey White, Kenny Vaccaro, and Jamarca Sanford to substantiate their blitz heavy scheme. Drew Bress has also thrown 11 interceptions through 11 games, which has put the Saints in the bottom 5 of the NFL in turnover differential at -9 with the Redskins, Jaguars, Jets, and Raiders, all of whom are terrible teams. The Falcons have played exactly as you would expect from a Mike Smith coached team and found more ways to lose close games than most people would think is humanly possible. In their loss to the Browns this past week, Mike Smith inexplicably stopped the clock by calling a timeout with 55 seconds left before a third down play, which allowed the Browns to keep all three of their timeouts and mount a drive to set up a Billy Cundiff game-winning field goal as time expired. When Smith was asked about calling the timeout he said, "They [Cleveland] would have used the timeout if we hadn't," so why not save Cleveland and Mike Pettine the trouble and take the timeout for them right? In Carolina, meanwhile, Cam Newton is getting hit as we speak, as the former Auburn quarterback seems to be consistently under more pressure than anybody not named RGIII. Newton has been sacked 33 times this season, which is tied for the 5th most in the NFL, and was highlighted when the Eagles got to Cam 9 times on Monday Night Football back in week 10. The Panthers have used so many different offensive line combinations this year with injuries to left guard Amini Silatolu, left tackle Byron Bell, and right guard Trai Turner that it has killed Newton. Finally, the Bucs have been a complete mess on both sides of the football from the beginning of the season and have had few bright spots outside of dynamic rookie wide receiver Mike Evans. Can things get any worse for this disaster of a division? Well, Mike Smith could continue to mess up late game situations with his horrid clock management, Lovie Smith could keep on relying on the Tampa 2 defense, the Panthers could continue to allow Cam Newton to get beat up, and the Saints could continue to lose games at home (they have lost three in a row after not losing in New Orleans in a year), which means they wouldn't be able to get any victories at all with their road history.

Meanwhile, the AFC North is the exact opposite of the NFC South, and is reminiscent of the rugged 2013 NFC West. All four of the teams in the North are at least three games above .500 and while the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals have been three of NFL's most consistent teams over the past decade, the emergence of the Cleveland Browns has made the AFC North really solid from top to bottom. The AFC North is the first division since the 1935 Western Division with the Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, and Chicago Cardinals to have a point in the season where all four of the teams are at least two games above .500. The Bengals, Steelers, Ravens, and Browns are an incredible 20-7-1 in out of division games, and all have positive point differentials, which only the 2007 NFC East and 2008 NFC South have accomplished for an entire season over the past 13 years. In fact, the AFC North's out of division winning percentage above .700 has only been done by seven divisions since the merger back in 1970, which is such an impressive mark. While none of the four teams in the AFC North are as imposing as the Patriots, Broncos, and likely even the Colts, it has the most depth of any division in recent NFL history with all their teams at 7 victories on the season through 12 weeks.

For the fourth straight year with Andy Dalton at quarterback, the Bengals have been able to rack up a lot of wins in the regular season. Cincinnati, who has not won a playoff game since they beat the old Houston Oilers in 1990, are really balanced on offense and are pretty sound on defense although they could use a better pass rush from players other than Carlos Dunlap (the Bengals have 14 sacks through 12 games, which is tied for 30th in the NFL and only ahead of the deplorable Raiders). Highlighted by right tackle Andre Smith, the Bengals rock solid offensive line has prevented Dalton from getting pressured on more passes than any other quarterback in the league and has helped their power running game with Jeremy Hill and the more shifty Giovani Bernard. The reason why a really average quarterback like Dalton has been able to be so successful in the regular season and a QB like Cam Newton has struggled so mightily is that Dalton's weapons, specifically his line and athletic wide receivers A.J. Green and Mohamed Sanu, are at the top of the entire NFL. Meanwhile, Cleveland, who are off to their best start since 2007, have looked nothing like the Browns of old, which is a very good thing, because of their great secondary play. Joe Haden is one of the best four cornerbacks in the league with Patrick Peterson, Revis, and Richard Sherman, and Buster Skrine has really come along despite teams throwing at him so often because of their fear of Haden. The Browns acquisition of big hitting safety Donte Whitner, has also allowed Tashaun Gipson the freedom to roam the field and follow the quarterbacks eyes on passing plays, which is why he leads the NFL in interceptions (the last safety to lead the NFL in picks outright was Ed Reed back in 2010). The Ravens have gotten through the entire Ray Rice mess that was brought about by the despicable actions of Rice himself, but also the incompetence of Roger Goodell and preserved to a 7-4 start to the season (I'm holding back on any Goodell hate although it is so tempting). Baltimore has not really excelled in any one facet of the game, but they have been above average on both offense and defense and are 5-0 against teams that are under .500. Steve Smith seems to be revitalized in his move to Baltimore despite changing teams for the first time after 13 years with Carolina, and has already had four games with at least 85 yards and a touchdown. Smith may not have the explosiveness he once did back in 2005 when he led the league in receptions, receiving touchdowns, and receiving yards, but he is still as tough and feisty as any player in the NFL. Elvis Dumervil's 10.5 sacks are the third most in the NFL and Will Hill, who endured so many off the field problems while with the Giants, has been a nice addition to a Ravens secondary that lost Aaron Ross for the season to a torn Achilles and Jimmy Smith to foot surgery. Finally, the Steelers have been really tough to figure out this year, as they demolished the Colts and Ravens in back-to-back weeks but have also suffered losses to the Bucs and Jets. They also were caught falling a little too in love with the passing game, which is justifiable when Big Ben throws for 12 touchdown passes in 2 weeks and Antonio Brown is second in the league in receiving yards, but they remembered in the second half against the Titans that their true identity is running the football (Le'Veon Bell finished that game with 204 yards and a touchdown).

The Dallas Cowboys Have By Far The Best Offensive Line In Football:

With the best tackle in football in Joe Thomas on their offensive line, the Browns have provided some really nice protection in the pocket for Brian Hoyer, which has allowed him to step up in the pocket and make some big throws down the field to streaking receivers. In Baltimore, with two of the best guards in football in Marshal Yanda and Kelechi Osemele and the quick Eugene Monroe at left tackle, Joe Flacco has been sacked just 14 times in 12 games for the Ravens, which is tied for the 4th fewest in the NFL, because of team's inability to get interior pressure on him (that says something because Flacco is possibly the slowest quarterback in the NFL aside from Tom Brady and the Manning brothers). The Seahawks offensive line highlighted by Max Unger and Russell Okung has opened up huge holes for Marshawn Lynch to run through in Seattle, which is why the Seahawks lead the NFL in rushing yards and rushing yards per carry. Phillip Rivers is third in the NFL in completion percentage in large part because of the time that his tackles D.J. Fluker and King Dunlap have given him to pick out Antonio Gates, Keenan Allen, and Malcolm Floyd, and Eddie Royal. Finally, there has been a resurgence in New England because of the consistency of their offensive line to give Brady time in the pocket to pick out his receivers down the field, which has been. However, the Dallas Cowboys offensive line of Tyron Smith at left tackle, Ronald Leary at left guard, Travis Frederick at center, Zack Martin at right guard, and Doug Free at left tackle is by far the best offensive line in the NFL, which is something we never thought we would have said about the Cowboys a few years ago when Romo was getting hit on almost every dropback and they couldn't get a running game going.

Obviously, having a great quarterback is the biggest factor in the success of a team because you almost always need a great QB to win a Super Bowl (I understand that Brad Johnson, Jeff Hostetler, Trent Dilfer, and Mark Rypien won Super Bowls, but you almost always need a top quarterback to get through the grind of the playoffs). However, the quarterback is the most dependent position in sports, and offensive lines in football are typically the strongest determinant of a team's ability to move the ball down the field because games are played from the inside-out starting in the trenches. Having an extra second to throw the ball in the pocket or going 3.5 yards before contact on running plays rather than 2.2 yards is often the difference between a playoff club and a team that is watching in January. The improvement in the offensive line of the Dallas Cowboys has enabled them more than anything else to a mark of 8-3 through 12 weeks, and a win away from not finishing at .500 for the fourth straight season since 2011 (last season, the Cowboys joined the 1983-1985 Green Bay Packers and the 1996-1998 Houston Oilers as the only team's to have three straight seasons with the same number of wins and losses). The dominance of the Cowboys offensive line has allowed DeMarco Murray to lead the league in running yards per game (123.1), first down runs (65), and rushing yards (1,354), and has put him on pace to pass Eric Dickerson in terms of total yards in a season. Tony Romo has only been sacked 21 times through 12 games, which is the 4th fewest in the NFC, and the Cowboys have only allowed more than two sacks once in their last 9 games (in comparison, Matthew Stafford has been sacked 33 times this season). When the Cowboys were trailing 28-24 with 3 minutes left in the fourth quarter and went down the field on their game-winning touchdown drive, Tony Romo was literally given all day to stand in the pocket and pick out his receivers. Granted, what was once a real strong point for the Giants defense during their two Super Bowl runs has turned into a major weakness, as New York has the 4th worst pass rush in the NFL in terms of sack numbers. However, what Dallas's offensive line did to the Giants was so impressive nonetheless, especially on the touchdown throw to Dez Bryant when Romo was allowed to survey the field for 7 or 8 seconds, grab dinner, date Candice Crawford, Jessica Simpson, and Carrie Underwood, and then toss the TD.

The centerpiece of the Cowboys offensive line is left tackle Tyron Smith, who is the best tackle in the NFL not named Joe Thomas. Taken with the 9th pick in the loaded 2011 draft out of USC (the Cowboys highest pick for an offensive lineman since they took John Niland with the fifth overall selection back in 1966), Smith is a monster in pass protection with his good hands and in run blocking for DeMarco Murray. He dominated Jason-Pierre Paul a few nights ago and held Robert Quinn, Chris Clemons, and Cliff Avril without a sack against the Rams, Jaguars, and Seahawks respectively. In the 2014 NFL Draft, as enticing as it would have been if the Cowboys selected Johnny Manziel with Tony Romo coming off back surgery, Jerry Jones did the prudent thing (who would ever thought we would say that) and took offensive guard Zack Martin out of Notre Dame to solidify the final piece of their ascending offensive line. It was just the third time since 1967 that the Cowboys had taken an offensive lineman in the first round with Howard Richards in 1981 and Smith in 2011 being the others (in comparison, the Rams have used the same number of first round picks on offensive linemen since 2005 alone with Alex Barron, Jason Smith, and Greg Robinson and the Packers and Bears have used 11 first rounders on the O-line since 1967). The Cowboys pick of Martin showed their shrewd emphasis on creating a dominant offensive line, which has paid off in the form of 8 wins and 3 losses through 12 weeks.