Much is the same this year in college football. From a team and individual player perspective, a club that was overlooked in the pre-season and was not even ranked until the 5th week of the year in #1 Mississippi St. is suddenly in a position to make a run to the National Championship, following in the footsteps of Auburn in 2010, Notre Dame in 2012, and Auburn in 2013. The SEC is once again the most dominant conference in the land, regardless of any perceived SEC bias from the nation, as any team in the SEC West outside of Arkansas could practically give the Jets a fight at this point (with the quarterback play of Geno Smith, Roger Goodell and his entire NFL staff of people "that never saw any Ray Rice video" could give the Jets a game). The Big 12 has continued to play about as much defense as the Tampa Bay Bucs with Baylor and TCU being able to score at will against anybody in conference play (top-10 games in the Big 12 that end up 61-58 with 1,267 total yards and 38 fourth quarter points don't even surprise people anymore). A surprise candidate has come out of mere obscurity to take hold of the Heisman Trophy race in Mississippi St. quarterback/pseudo-Tim Tebow playmaker Dak Prescott, mimicking the path of Cam Newton and Johnny Manziel. One of college football's most noticeable and dynamic players has been suspended because of violating NCAA rules in signing autographs for payments in Georgia tailback Todd Gurley (as much as it is ridiculous that players cannot make any money off their own likeness, Gurley was just as foolish to risk the Bulldogs season and ruin his Heisman chances knowing perfectly well the rules currently in place). We will likely have our 5th straight quarterback Heisman winner and our 13th in the last 15 years - including Reggie Bush's vacated Heisman from 2005 - with Gurley falling out the Heisman lead and Prescott and Marcus Mariota asserting themselves at the top of the list. #18 Oklahoma has maintained its place as college football's annual title favorite that will certainly let you down before season's end. And finally, Jameis "humble pie" Winston has remained the most polarizing figure in college football, and possibly all of sports, with some of his farcical off-field antics, but his ability to muster through it all for the Seminoles and keep on winning when it matters most.
In terms of coaching, Lane Kiffin has retained his spot as college football's most hated coach, and he isn't even a head coach anymore. Nick Saban, Bobby Petrino, and Bret Bielema also have to be on the most hated short-list (A quick tangent on Arkansas that shows just how difficult it is to play in the SEC. The Razorbacks finish up the season against Mississippi St., LSU, Ole Miss, and Missouri, and assuming they lose all four games, as they should, Arkansas would be 0-19 in conference game dating back to 2012 with an incredible 13 of those losses coming against teams in the AP top 15. I'd rather play in the NBA Eastern Conference). Will Muschamp is still losing games to teams that rack up less than 120 yards (in the last 10 years, Muschamp's Gators have twice lost games without giving up 120 yards, which no other FBS team has done once over that span). Will Muschamp is still struggling to realize that Jeff Driskel is incapable of playing the quarterback position. Brady Hoke continues to suggest that Will Muschamp just needs more time and patience to turn his program around (there will likely be major head coach openings at Michigan and Florida this off-season, so let the coaching carousel begin). Last but not least, Bill Synder has had so much sustained success at Kansas St. that I'm convinced he is a one-half wizard-Dumbledore figure and one-half head football coach.
For as much as college football is the same once again this year, the landscape of the sport could not be any different because of one reason, which is that a college football playoff has finally, and I do mean finally, arrived. It has taken a few decades, but college football now has a system in place that is no longer controlled by computers and the ever so mysterious BCS poll calculations, and is now reliant upon actual human beings, who are typically more trustworthy than machines (apart from Roger Goodell of course). Now, I am not somebody that comes down on the BCS as if it was the worst thing since Aliens versus Predator 2. More often then not, after all the commotion and controversy over the system settled down amongst fans, the two most deserving teams would end up squaring off in the National Championship Game. Although USC in 2004, Auburn in 2005, Michigan in 2007, Texas in 2009, and TCU in 2011 may have had legitimate claims to being in the title game, the system was certainly not so egregious that it needed congress to step in as some claimed over the years (although congress probably doesn't have much else to do with their time anyway). However, the BCS was a really reactive system - kinda like the NFL's policies on domestic abuse. For example, it put into place the "Kansas St. Rule" making sure that any team in the top 4 of the rankings would receive a BCS bid only after the 1998 K-State team wasn't invited to a BCS bowl despite finishing 11-1 with their only defeat being a double overtime loss in their final game of the regular season to Texas A&M. The BCS also excluded undefeated teams from playing in the title game on many occasions (see Utah in 2004), and also arbitrarily eliminated teams beside upon the recency of their loss in relation to the end of the season. For example, to this day I will never understand how Florida St. was given the opportunity to play an undefeated Oklahoma in the National Championship in 2000 just because their loss to Miami came earlier in the season than Virginia Tech's same one loss to Miami.
It is much nicer knowing that things will be decided on the field, or so we hope, in years to come with the four team playoff (debate won't end, though, with teams fighting over that final playoff spot). Many people thought that the college football playoff would diminish the regular season, as the BCS made every week a do-or-die scenario since one loss could effectively eliminate most teams from championship game contention (10 of the 16 BCS National Champions went undefeated). However, the college football regular season has been even better under the new playoff format with each week still greatly magnified for its importance to the title picture. In fact, it keeps more teams in the playoff hunt for longer into the season so that more games have championship implications each week. Take a very solid Michigan St. team from last year for example. The Spartans lost in the 4th week of the season to a sub-par Notre Dame team without Everett Golson and were pretty much out of the National Championship picture from earlier on in the season playing in the relatively weak Big Ten. If you take Michigan St. this year, though, despite their early loss on the road to Oregon in Eugene, they still have a chance to make the playoff because of an additional two teams being awarded a title game opportunity, which gives more importance to the entirety of their season and more interest to their games on a weekly basis. The regular season is still so important in college football, but it keeps teams around for just a little bit longer to add another layer of drama to the sport. Anybody who watched the Florida St.-Notre Dame game can tell you that the regular season in college football is still the most intense and important regular season in all of sports, and that is undeniable, especially when you watch the regular season in the NBA on some random night in February.
Each week the newly installed college football playoff committee, which is composed of 6 current or former athletic directors and 6 former school administrators, head coaches, reporters, NCAA executives, or Secretary of States (not including Archie Manning, who is taking a leave from the committee to deal with health issues), will release a top 25 rankings to give the public an insight into their thinking and let teams know where they stand in the playoff picture. The committee will have to come together and form some sort of consensus on the four most deserving college football teams to go into the playoff by season's end, a group's whose power can only be matched by the Bilderberg Group (too far I'm sure). Luckily, for the constant detractors and critics out there (and there are a lot of them), it looks as if the committee is going to have an exceedingly difficult decision this year because the one word to describe college football through nine weeks of the season is muddled (other words that could have been applied would have been crab legs and Mississippi). Clearly, an undefeated #1 Mississippi St. and the defending National Champion/survival masters #2 Florida St. are at the top of the rankings, but there are then 16 teams from the power 5 conferences that have just one loss and are aiming for the 3rd and 4th playoff spots as of now (there were only 8 teams that were undefeated or had one loss through 9 weeks in 2009 from the power 5 conferences and just 11 such clubs in 2011).
Despite their propensity to get into some very close and testy contests and rely on some late game magic and help from the opposition (or from a Notre Dame perspective, the refs), as they did against Oklahoma St. to an extent and certainly against #21 Clemson (would have lost if Clemson didn't Clemson), #10 Notre Dame (it was offensive pass interference on the Irish, so stop arguing about it), and #25 Louisville (just go down after a big interception), Florida St. looks as if it they have the best chance of making the playoffs. The Seminoles are currently at 8-0 with their only regular season games remaining against unranked Virginia, Miami (FL), Boston College, and Florida (Will Muschamp will get a friendly goodbye from the Noles) before an ACC title game against #24 Duke or somebody else from the abyss that is the ACC Coastal Division. The Seminoles do have to find a more consistent running game from Karlos Williams and Dalvin Cook and sure some things up in the secondary, but Jameis Winston has been able to cover up for a lot of the club's deficiencies so far and should be able to lead the Noles to the inaugural playoff. #1 Mississippi St. has a much tougher road to go in the treacherous SEC West with big games left against #6 Alabama in Tuscollosa and #4 Ole Miss in Oxford in the biggest Egg Bowl since FDR was still President in 1940. The Bulldogs running game is so difficult to stop because of the power of Dak Prescott running from the quarterback position, and their defensive line, highlighted by Preston Smith, is the best front four in the country. The Bulldogs could likely afford one loss as long as they go on to play in the SEC Championship game and win it in Atlanta, which is certainty not a guarantee in the west. The Seminoles, on the other hand, will probably have to go the rest of the season undefeated if they want to be in the final four because their win against Notre Dame is their only high quality opponent all season long.
In the SEC, #3 Auburn, #4 Ole Miss, #6 Alabama, and #11 Georgia each have only one loss on the season. The entire Bama fan base was sent into such a crazed panic after being ranked behind #3 Auburn, #4 Ole Miss, and #5 Oregon in the first college football playoff rankings that they thought about succeeding from the system (way too far civil war joke). Alabama has looked really good the last two weeks with their demolition of Texas A&M 59-0 and their slapping of Tennessee in Knockville 34-20, which should teach them that they should just throw the ball anywhere near Amari Cooper and he will catch it. Nonetheless, they lost to #3 Ole Miss in their head-to-head game on October 4th, so I don't understand the argument that Bama should be ranked ahead of the Rebels. In fact, Alabama's best win this season is against #20 West Virginia while Auburn has a win over #9 Kansas St. on the road in Manhattan and #5 Oregon beat Big Ten favorite #8 Michigan St., so #6 Alabama is in the rankings right where they should be based on their resume. However, like every other team in the deadly SEC, the Tide have a chance to get into the playoff picture because of the games they have remaining on their schedule against other top teams in the country, which could produce some SEC cannibalism. Alabama still has to play at #19 LSU in Death Valley, and then host #1 Mississippi St. and #3 Auburn, #3 Auburn has #4 Ole Miss, #11 Georgia, and #6 Alabama on the road, #4 Ole Miss has #3 Auburn and #1 Mississippi St. both at home, and #11 Georgia still has to play #3 Auburn, a game Todd Gurley will be eligible to play in. After all those games are played, we will then have one of Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi St., or Ole Miss likely playing Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. In other words, it is very possible that the SEC teams could beat up on each other so much that they all end up with one or two losses. However, considering the grave difficulty of the SEC West, whichever team wins the conference championship should be in the playoffs barring some unforeseen circumstance. Just looking at the schedules, Auburn has the toughest slate with three really difficult road trips remaining. The Tigers, which rely so much on their read option running game with Nick Marshall and Cameron Artis-Payne, could face some difficulties going up against Alabama, who allow the least rushing yards per game in the nation, Georgia, who are 10th in the category, and Ole Miss, who are 25th in the statistic. The game that I would circle in the SEC would be #1 Mississippi St. at #6 Alabama on November 15th, which will have huge playoff implications.
The Big Ten is the simplest conference to figure out at this point. On November 8th, #8 Michigan St. plays #16 Ohio St. in a massive Big Ten game in East Lansing with the winner having the inside track on playing #15 Nebraska in the conference championship game in Indianapolis. If I were Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany, I would be rooting for the Spartans to win that game against the Buckeyes because it gives the conference the best chance at a team in the final four. Ohio State's only loss to the Hokies is a really poor one at this point because Virginia Tech is just not a very good team. Meanwhile, Michigan State's only loss is to a playoff quality Oregon team on the road, which the team could easily recuperate from and make the playoffs with just a little bit of help in front of them, much less than the Buckeyes need to overcome their terrible loss early in the season. The Spartans are really balanced with Connor Cook at quarterback and Jeremy Langford in the backfield, and certainly have a good enough defense to play with any team in the country. While the Buckeyes have started to improve on offense with J.T. Barrett becoming more comfortable behind center and Urban Meyer putting more emphasis on the running game (if that is even possible), the Spartans are a much better team on both sides of the ball and should win that game next weekend. However, no matter what happens, the Big Ten will likely need some help around them to get a team into the playoffs.
The Pac-12 has been impossible to predict so far, which should continue right on through the end of the season. #5 Oregon, #12 Arizona, #14 Arizona St., and #17 Utah each have one loss with games to play against each other while UCLA, Stanford, and USC are all pretty good teams that could easily spoil the party for one of the clubs ahead of them. If Oregon can finally overcome the physicality of Stanford, which they have not been able to do since 2011 and has ruined their BCS title game chances each of the last two seasons, they will have the best chance of taking over one of the final four playoff spots from the SEC cannibalism that is going to occur. The Ducks offensive line has been very shaky this season in front of Heisman candidate and future Jets quarterback Marcus Mariota. Oregon has allowed 2.6 sacks per game, which ranks 91st in the nation, and could be much worse if Mariota didn't have the pocket awareness or the mobility of a top flight college quarterback. Stanford is 13th in the country in sacks per game at 3.3 per contest, so Oregon will have to do a better job of protecting Mariota and giving him more time in the pocket than they have been able to over the past several weeks. Since Mariota will be throwing into some real tight windows against a solid Cardinals defense, he will need more time to survey the field. If Oregon can get past Stanford and a tough road test at #17 Utah, they should be looking at a Pac-12 Championship game for a shot at a playoff birth. Meanwhile, Utah, Arizona, and Arizona St. all still have to play one another in Pac-12 South games, and Arizona still has an additional game against Washington, Utah still has to play Oregon, and Arizona St. still has to play Notre Dame aside from their divisional games. Freshman quarterback Anu Solomon has been racking up huge numbers against Pac-12 defenses, and unlike Connor Halliday, has actually been winning games in the process. Arizona is going to spread teams out and constantly attack them horizontally along the edge and also vertically down the field, which should give them a very good chance at winning the South and possibly meeting Oregon again in a Pac-12 Championship Game with major playoff implications.
Finally, in the Big 12, #7 TCU, #9 Kansas St., and #13 Baylor each have one loss on the season, and could make a run towards a final four spot with some SEC and Pac-12 losses ahead of them. TCU has to play #20 West Virginia in Morgantown before playing host to Kansas St. in a game that will likely decide the Big 12 race. Kansas St. also has difficult tests against Oklahoma St. and then really tough road games at West Virginia, and then Baylor to finish off the season in Waco. The Bears still have to go to Norman to play #18 Oklahoma on November 8th as well. Trevone Boykin has been terrific for the Horned Frogs this season in leading the nation's highest scoring offense at more than 50 points per game. Boykin can make a lot of plays with his feet, but his accuracy has greatly improved from last season, which has allowed TCU to put up some record breaking offensive numbers, including a 82 point mashing of Texas Tech last weekend. If TCU want to win the Big 12, however, and have a chance at a playoff spot, they will have to sure up their secondary, particularly when they play West Virginia's Kevin White and Kansas State's dynamic wide out Tyler Lockett, two of the best receivers in the country.
With only five weeks left in the season before Championship Weekend, or as the Big 12 calls it "just another weekend," a lot still has to be decided before the selection committee officially announces the four teams that will be going off to the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl on January 1st with the winners playing in Jerry's World on January 12th for the National Championship. From a two-loss team becoming the first club to win a title since LSU in 2007 to the SEC being left out of the playoff completely to Oregon actually beating Stanford for once and making the playoffs to Roger Goodell suddenly becoming a competent commissioner (I can have a dream can't I) we could see anything happen from now until January 12th. In the words of Kevin Garnett, "anything is possible" when it comes to college football.
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