Friday, July 19, 2013

MLB Storylines To Follow During The Second Half Of The Season

The phrase has been muttered a million times, but yet it bears repeating year after year: the MLB season is a marathon, not a sprint. Unlike the NFL, where every week there is a feeling of desperation, the MLB teams are accustomed to long stretches during a season where their club may be struggling, whether it is a World Series contender or a last place team that is rebuilding. In fact, the 1951 New York Giants and the 1982 Atlanta Braves both had 11-game losing streaks and still managed to reach the postseason (the Giants lost to the Yankees in the World Series and the Braves lost in the NLCS to the Cardinals). With the first half of the MLB season in the rear-view mirror and the dog days of July and August rapidly approaching, it is important to remember that a few losses or a few wins don't make a playoff team, as the consistent ball clubs are always the ones that last the entire season. Here are some storylines to closely monitor during the tail end of the baseball calendar.

Manny Machado's Chase Of The Doubles Record:

Since 1936, not one player in the major leagues has hit 60 doubles over the course of a season. In 2000, Carlos Delgado and Todd Helton came close, and in 2002 Garret Anderson and Nomar Garciaparra fell just short. However, not only will Manny Machado likely become the first player since Joe Medwick to hit 60 doubles in a season (Medwick hit 64 with the St. Louis Cardinals in 1936), but he is also on pace to eclipse Earl Webb's record for doubles in a single season. In 1933, Webb hit 67 doubles with the Boston Red Sox, and remarkably, the record has stood ever since. Machado, who needs just 18 doubles over the second half of the season to break the Orioles single season record of 56 set by Brian Roberts in 2009, is having a historic year for any ball player, especially for a guy that just turned 21 in July. To show just how impressive it is that Machado hit 39 doubles during the first half of the season, only once in the history of baseball has a player younger than 24 hit more than 48 doubles over an entire season (Alex Rodriguez in 1996 at the age of 20 with the Mariners). As good as Machado has been defensively for the O's, his offensive consistency has been just as impressive. While Machado will certainly hit more home runs as his career progresses, his smooth stroke at the plate lends itself perfectly for his chase of the doubles record. The former first round pick will continue to rack up doubles over the second half of the year because he is a line drive hitter. Of Machado's 128 hits this season, 61 of them have been line drives, which shows his ability to drive the ball into the gaps. This could be the year that the 77 year old doubles record finally falls.

Possible Back to Back Triple Crowns For Miguel Cabrera:

As we all know, Miguel Cabrera had a season for the ages last year. Not only did Cabrera become the first Tigers batter to win the MVP award since Hank Greenberg in 1940 (Hal Newhouser, Denny McLain, Willie Hernandez, and Justin Verlander all won the award as pitchers), but he also become the major leagues first Triple Crown winner in 45 years since Carl Yastrzemski. As crazy as this may seem, Miguel Cabrera is actually having a better season this year! The Tigers slugger is on pace to finish the season with 51 home runs and 163 RBI's, which has only been done by three people in the history of baseball (Babe Ruth in 1921 and 1927, Hack Wilson in 1930, and Jimmie Foxx in 1932). Cabrera, who currently has an OPS of 1.132, is also looking to become the first player since Barry Bonds in 2004 to have an on-base plus slugging percentage of at least 1.1300 for an entire season. Cabrera is in such a grove right now that in at-bats where he is ahead of the count, he is batting a ridiculous .411. The third baseman is also trying to achieve something that no other triple crown winner ever did, which is to accomplish the feat in back to back years. Miggy has a seizable lead in batting average over Mike Trout, as his .365 average is 43 points better than the Angles star. However, despite an almost laughable 95 RBI's at the All-Star break, Orioles slugger Chris Davis drove in 93 runs over the first half of the season, while Davis has a 7 home run advantage in the last Triple Crown category. Despite having even better numbers than last season, Cabrera may miss out on consecutive Triple Crowns because of the historic season that Chris Davis is having. Nonetheless, just how good Miguel Cabrera has been this year can not be understated, as he is having one of the greatest single-seasons in MLB history.

Clayton Kershaw's Sub .200 ERA:

In the last 40 years, only 8 pitchers have ever finished a season with an ERA below 2.00 (Ron Guidry in 1978, Nolan Ryan in 1981, Dwight Gooden in 1985, John Tudor in 1985, Greg Maddux in 1994 and 1995, Pedro Martinez in 1997 and 2000, Roger Clemens 1990 and 2005, and Kevin Brown in 1996). However, at this year's All-Star break, Clayton Kershaw has an astonishing 1.98 ERA for the Los Angeles Dodgers. If Kershaw is able to end the season with a sub .200 ERA, he would forever be linked to some of the greatest single season pitching performances in MLB history. In 1994, Greg Maddux had a 1.56 ERA, the lowest for any pitcher in 77 years since Fred Anderson and Eddie Cicotte in 1917. In the heart of the steroid era in 2000, Pedro Martinez finished the season with a 1.74 ERA, while also setting the MLB record in WHIP for a single season. Kershaw has the stuff to finish a season with an ERA under 2, as his nasty curveball beautifully complements his mid 90's fastball. The Dodgers ace is certainly a strikeout pitcher, as his strikeout percentage of 24.8 ranks amongst the top 10 in the league. However, Kershaw can also pitch to contact and still be just as effective, as hitters are batting just .238 when they put balls into play against him, which is the 5th lowest in the league. Although Kershaw has been terrific the last two years (winning the NL Cy Young in 2011 and coming in 2nd in 2012), he has been even better so far this season.

Late Season Drama:

When the MLB instituted the second Wild Card berth in each league in 2012, its main intention was to put emphasis on team's winning their own division. However, the underlining goal of the expanded format was to create more drama with late season playoff races and the winner take all wild card showdown. The final day of the 2011 season was the greatest single night of baseball in MLB history, with more drama and twists and turns than a Shakespearean play. Baseball could be in store for some classic late season playoff races once again this year. Unless the Angles can miraculously turn around another massively disappointing season, the American League will likely be a 8 team race for 5 postseason spots, as all 8 of the clubs are within 6 games of each other. In fact, the Rays, Rangers, Orioles, Yankees, and Indians are all within three games of one another in the AL Wild Card race. The National League, specifically the NL West is likewise very crowded. In the NL West, the last place Padres are only 8.5 games out of first place. In fact, before San Diego went on a 2-11 skid, each team in the division was sitting within 3 games of each other on July 2. While the Dodgers have been playing exponentially better baseball ever since they got healthy and Yasiel Puig came to the big leagues, the Diamondbacks have been holding a slim lead in the division all season long. Nevertheless, it would be foolish to ever count out the Giants, who have won 2 of the last 3 World Series. Meanwhile, it is going to be a dogfight in the NL Central, as the Cardinals, Pirates, and Reds will all be looking to capture the divisional crown.

Yasiel Puig's Dominance:

Whether you thought that Yasiel Puig should have been an All-Star or that the question was an absolute joke (Jonathan Papelbon), there is no denying the impact that the Cuban sensation has had on the Los Angeles Dodgers. When Puig made his MLB debut on June 3rd, the Dodgers were 9 games under .500 at 23-32 and were 8.5 games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West. Ever since then, the Dodgers have been 25-15 and have crawled to within two games of the division leading Dbacks. Puig got off to such a torrid pace in June that his opening month in the big leagues drew comparisons to Joe Dimaggio. The star outfielder had a hit in 26 of his first 30 games including 8 home runs, 19 RBI's, a ridiculous slugging percentage of .745, and a batting average a tad under .450. Puig's energy (jumping into walls to make catches, throwing guys out from the outfield, and being ultra aggressive on the base paths) along with his crazy talent have proven to be invaluable for the Dodgers. However, the question is: can Puig continue to light up the big leagues or will pitchers begin to figure him out? While Puig has mainly slowed down in July due to a hip injury, some of his flaws have begun to appear. Puig is a guy that loves to swing the bat and he can sometimes be inpatient at the plate. The Cuban star only walked in 3 of his first 26 MLB games and through his first 161 plate appearances, Puig has walked just 7 times. In fact, Puig had a 12 game stretch from June 8 to June 21, where he didn't walk in 49 consecutive plate appearances. Pitchers have begun to pepper Puig with off-speed pitches outside of the strike zone because they know that he will chase a lot of pitches. Nonetheless, Puig is still just a 22-year old rookie that has unlimited potential and power, as he has already shown to opposing pitchers.