Sunday, August 28, 2011

Justin Verlander Shouldn't Win The AL MVP Award

Justin Verlander is having one of the best pitching seasons in recent memory. He leads the league in nearly every pitching category including wins, innings pitched, strikeouts, and WHIP. Not surprisingly, he has been the ace of the AL Central leading Detroit Tigers. After beginning the season with a 2-3 record, he is an incredible 18-2 and has not recorded a loss in the months of May, June, and August. To go along with his 20-5 record and 218 strikeouts, Verlander has also thrown a no hitter, which he did on May 7th against the Blue Jays. Verlander is no doubt the clear front-runner to win the AL Cy Young, but he shouldn't win the AL MVP award ahead of guys like Adrian Gonzalez and Curtis Granderson.

In order for a pitcher to win an MVP award there has to be a combination of two things. First, the pitcher has to be having an incredible, record-breaking season. Second, and most important, there has to be no position player who has had a season worthy enough to deserve the award. Although Justin Verlander is having a great pitching year, there are definitely position players who have had seasons worthy of the MVP. Adrian Gonzalez is having an outstanding first season with the Red Sox and has been on a tear lately. He is in the top 5 in nearly every batting category in the AL. He is 1st in hits, 3rd in on base percentage, 4th in slugging percentage, 4th in runs, 4th in doubles, and 4th in on base plus slugging percentage. Gonzalez also leads the MLB with a .345 batting average and is tied with Curtis Granderson for the league lead in RBIs with 103. Often times, the MVP race comes down to the last 2 months of the season. Gonzalez is stating his case that he deserves to win the award as he has led the Red Sox to a two game lead in the AL East over the Yankees. In his last 7 games, Gonzalez is 12-31 (.387) and has 5 home runs and 10 RBIs. Curtis Granderson is another position player who has had an MVP season. Granderson is second in the league with 36 home runs and he is tied for the league lead in RBIs with 103. Granderson's 119 runs scored lead the league, and he has scored 24 more runs than any other player in the league this season. The Yanks centerfielder has also caused havoc on the base paths with his 24 stolen bases. Gonzalez and Granderson have both had seasons that are worthy of an MVP.

It is extremely rare for pitchers to win an MVP award. Since 1931, only 11 pitchers have ever won the AL MVP award, and just 4 have won the award since 1972. The pitchers who have won the award have had an all-time, great season and they have also been in a year where there was no position player who was a clear-cut MVP candidate. In 1971, Vida Blue won the AL MVP as a starting pitcher for the Oakland Athletics. Vida had an incredible season, as he was 24-8 with an astonishing 1.82 ERA, 24 complete games, and 8 shutouts. None of the players that finished in the top 20 of the MVP voting in 1971 had over 35 home runs or more than 100 RBIs. Sal Bando, who finished in 2nd that year, had just 24 home runs, 94 RBIs, and batted only .271. In 1992, Dennis Eckersley won the AL MVP award as the closer for the Oakland Athletics. Eckersley had a record-breaking season as he had 51 saves, an MLB record for the most in a single season at the time, and he also had an ERA of 1.91 in 69 appearances. That same year, Kirby Puckett was the runner-up for the MVP, but he had only 19 homers. Joe Carter, who finished third, had 34 home runs, but batted just .264. Verlander is having a great season, but it is not like Vida Blue’s year in 1971 or Dennis Eckersley’s in 1992 where they were the only dominating performer in all of baseball. 

Many pitchers have had great seasons, even better than Verlander's, and have not won the MVP award because there were position players who deserved it. In 1989, Bret Saberhagen of the Kansas City Royals had one of the best single seasons in AL history and won the AL Cy Young award. Saberhagen led the major leagues with 23 wins and only one pitcher since then, Bob Welch in 1990, has had more than 23 wins in a single season in the AL. Saberhagen also led the league with a 2.16 ERA, but didn't win the AL MVP because guys like Robin Yount and Ruben Sierra had terrific seasons.  In 2000, Pedro Martinez had one of the greatest pitching seasons in American League history. The Red Sox pitcher was 18-6 with a 1.74 ERA, which was the lowest in the AL since Ron Guidry of the New York Yankees had a 1.74 ERA in 1978. Pedro's finished 2000 with a WHIP of 0.737, which was the lowest single season WHIP in MLB history. However, Pedro didn't win the AL MVP because there were position players who had great seasons. Jason Giambi, Frank Thomas, Alex Rodriguez, and Carlos Delgado all had over 40 home runs, 130 RBIs, and batted over .315 and all received more votes than Pedro for MVP. By the way, Jason Giambi, who later admitted to using steroids, won the award. 

Verlander's season is easy to compare to Roger Clemens's year in 1997 with the Toronto Blue Jays. Like Verlander, Clemens won his 20th game before the end of August and was the clear cut AL Cy Young favorite. If you put their numbers next to each other they are very similar. Clemens pitched 264 innings and was 21-7 with a 2.05 ERA and 292 strikeouts. With about 6 starts remaining, Verlander has pitched 215.2 innings and is currently 20-5 with a higher ERA than Clemens at 2.38 and 218 strikeouts. Verlander's innings and strikeouts will look much more like Clemens's after his final 6 starts. When the AL MVP voting was tallied in 1997, Clemens finished in 10th place. 

Tiger's manager Jim Leyland recently said, "I don't think a pitcher should be the Most Valuable Player. I'm not looking for arguments or controversy. I just think when a guy goes out there 158 times or 155 times and has a big year, an MVP type year, I don't think the guy that goes out there 35 times should be named over that guy. To me right now if you really wanted to look at it who is our Most Valuable Player? Is it Verlander or at this point today under all circumstances is it Alex Avila? You can make a case for what this kid has gone through. I'm certainly not taking anything away from Verlander and I'm not trying to change the voting.”

2 comments:

  1. Valid points in your article, there are other guys as deserving. Avila has statrted 18 straight games. Equally impressive.

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  2. agreed but he wont, cy young YES mvp NO

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